twg cxiv: nothing special 2: electric boogaloo2 wolves, 6 humans. the wolves kill one player per night via pm and everybody votes on lynches during the day. this game has cardflips. pms are allowed, just makes sure to include the host in all game-related pms. this game is forum-only.
roles
1. wolf
2. wolf
3. human
4. human
5. human
6. human
7. human
8. human
players
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. World 36-1
3. E. Gadd
4. A# Minor
5. TheZeldaPianist
6. Kaiveran
7. Xiao
8. Olimar12345
role pms
you're a wolf. your partner is ______. try to kill humans.
you're a human. try to hunt some wolves.
Good to be back. Cheers everyone!
yey
Obligatory activity post. It was good to get that email that I'd received a PM on the forums :)
Also gonna preemptively guess that one of the wolves is ThatHiddenCharacter. No idea who the other is
Ninja'd
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 01, 2023, 08:18:30 AMAlso gonna preemptively guess that one of the wolves is ThatHiddenCharacter. No idea who the other is
^ I was gonna say that! XD
This is gonna be fun, a mix of first-timers and old-timers, seeing what play styles all the new folks drift toward
also i was forced to look up what a werewolf was when i was signing up for the game so yey i learned something... that will honestly get me nowhere in life XD
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 01, 2023, 08:18:30 AMAlso gonna preemptively guess that one of the wolves is ThatHiddenCharacter.
I have no idea what you're talking about... (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yDYSNIjdf8)
aww I'll have to open that somewhere else
Why on earth am I posting so much.
First game jitters perhaps. Which could go several different ways
Sounds about right XD
also where is everyone at, the game started four hours ago
The way this game is structured, there aren't any powers to consider the use of during the night phase. That means night phases will be quieter than day phases, particularly at the start when nothing has happened to react to. Don't worry, the fireworks will start after a wolfing gets the ball rolling.
Oh OK, so we're basically sitting back and waiting for someone to get wolfed right now.
In the absence of special roles, there's still value in talking N1. Talking of any kind is good (within reason, obvs) because it's inactivity and complete silence that gives the wolves the upper hand
omg its happening: NSM TWG is back!
This is also my "reporting in that I'm here" post, so hi
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 01, 2023, 01:34:02 PMIn the absence of special roles, there's still value in talking N1. Talking of any kind is good (within reason, obvs) because it's inactivity and complete silence that gives the wolves the upper hand
OK, I see. Well, I can bring my awful Italian here if it gets too quiet...
Also, you know there are 6 other people online when you have to wait 2 whole minutes just to get logged in XD
no who's online stalking
Well, just talking about the nature of the game. Even these "I'm here and accounted for" posts are good to see who's been around during this first night phase. Depending on what happens, those people who say nothing could become under suspect, or the people who talk a lot (like myself). Gosh I've missed this game. All the strats are coming back to my mind, it's great :D
clocking in to this post as well
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 01, 2023, 02:50:44 PMno who's online stalking
Well, just talking about the nature of the game. Even these "I'm here and accounted for" posts are good to see who's been around during this first night phase. Depending on what happens, those people who say nothing could become under suspect, or the people who talk a lot (like myself). Gosh I've missed this game. All the strats are coming back to my mind, it's great :D
i don't stalk, i just happened to notice...Yeah, I was joking. I'll probably be doing a lot of observing for now though because as you can tell, I'm not quite sure what to do XD
...wait, how did electric guitars get in this?
Quote from: A# Minor on August 01, 2023, 08:39:34 AMWhy on earth am I posting so much.
Not a bad idea
if you're not a WOLF. Activity is strongly encouraged. Even though not much is gonna happen Night 1, it's still good to get the flow of the game going.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 01, 2023, 02:50:44 PMGosh I've missed this game. All the strats are coming back to my mind, it's great :D
the power of nsmtwg compels you
Oh no...
The master of debates has arrived...
... RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!
(I don't know why my devices space the text out so much, I only pressed the return key once. Oh well.)
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 01, 2023, 08:14:41 PMNot a bad idea if you're not a WOLF.
of course im not a wolf, im a human with a floor sprout
Quote from: A# Minor on August 01, 2023, 08:51:40 PMof course im not a wolf, im a human with a floro sprout
There we go. (See, I didn't edit!)
Quote from: A# Minor on August 01, 2023, 08:52:18 PMThere we go. (See, I didn't edit!)
Floor sprout is better (also gud jeb)
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 01, 2023, 08:16:32 PMthe power of nsmtwg compels you
Good, gooood. Soon I shall return to my former state of skill (or lack thereof).
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 01, 2023, 09:18:58 PMFloor sprout is better (also gud jeb)
I just typed the first thing that came to my mind XD
But I don't really want sprouts growing through the floor...
It's very likely that someone will be wolfed tonight, unless the wolves are trying some sort of weird mindgames or they genuinely forget :P
...both those have happened in games I've been in before.
Looking at the numbers, the game will end in basically the same amount of time if the wolves don't wolf someone assuming none of the wolves are lynched. Of course, if we do lynch a wolf, then forgoing wolfing someone will just make it much harder on the remaining wolf.
A quick list of everyone who's posted so far:
1. BlackDragonSlayer: posted
2. World 36-1: NOT posted
3. E. Gadd: posted
4. A# Minor: posted
5. TheZeldaPianist: posted
6. Kaiveran: NOT posted
7. Xiao: posted
8. Olimar12345: posted
If World and Kaiveran haven't posted by the end of the phase it'd be a good idea to ping them or send them a DM on Discord just to make sure they're fully aware that the game has started.
I'm probably going to be going to bed soon and likely won't be awake until the phase has already ended (I'm in Pacific Time, so the phases end at like 6am for me).
twg cxiv: nothing special 2: electric boogaloo2 wolves, 6 humans. the wolves kill one player per night via pm and everybody votes on lynches during the day. this game has cardflips. pms are allowed, just makes sure to include the host in all game-related pms. this game is forum-only.
roles
1. wolf
2. wolf
3. human
4. human
5. human
6. human
7. human
8. human
players
1. BlackDragonSlayer2. World 36-1
3. E. Gadd
4. A# Minor
5. TheZeldaPianist
6. Kaiveran
7. Xiao
8. Olimar12345
role pms
you're a wolf. your partner is ______. try to kill humans.
you're a human. try to hunt some wolves.
(I'll add his last words in another post once he's around to give them.)
:( BDS we hardly knew ye
Do we have any indication that the inactives even know the game is on? I don't know 36-1 and Kaiveran at all. I'm assuming 36-1 came from NSM's Discord, and possibly Kaiveran as well, although he's played here before, so I'm not sure about him. THC, can we reach out to them on Discord without violating the game's rules, or do you have to do that?
^ RIP BDS. :(
Ninja'd because I was pretty sure I posted this ten minutes ago.
Yeah, 36-1 came online about an hour after the game started so he could be aware that the game is on but just didn't have time to post anything. Kaiveran (?) wasn't on since the 30th.
... That information was probably unnecessary XD
Aw no! I was looking forward to working with BDS (or against, depending) D:
Honestly though I can't say I'm surprised, going for a person with more experience. Kinda not liking the fact that World 36-1 has been seen around online but hasn't said anything here.
Actually, A# Minor, that info could be quite useful for early game. Hopefully they both show up and play their part, though, because inactivity just makes the game not fun for anyone. Just don't stalk Who's Online to try and ascertain who's doing what in terms of the game because that's generally frowned upon :P (example: seeing someone sending a PM during night phase could be seen as suspicious, but it also could be any number of things so why bring it up? It kills the spirit of the game)
THC, would it be wise to send a message in the Discord to indicate phase changes? Perhaps it would help people in being aware of the flow of the game.
Aaaand finally, I want to hear Xiao's thoughts on the state of things right now. They're new, and early game can be rather interesting to see what people think, especially with little info.
I will attempt to reach out to 36-1 and Kaiveran, plus I do think pinging the alive players on Discord for phase changes is a good idea that I will implement going forward.
As for BDS' final words:
they played me like a damn fiddle
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 02, 2023, 09:27:51 AMI will attempt to reach out to 36-1 and Kaiveran, plus I do think pinging the alive players on Discord for phase changes is a good idea that I will implement going forward.
As for BDS' final words:
they played me like a damn fiddle
Grazie! And as for BDS's final words, eek. That's cryptic.
I would also like to hear Olimar's thoughts on BDS's final message/the current state of things. We need people talking.
The way this game is structured it definitely favors the wolves, even with cardflips. In the absence of any special roles, the information between the humans and the wolves is as wide as it can be. And with the numbers, we are allowed a grand total of one mislynch before the game could end. It is imperative that people be talking about their suspicions as much as possible. More information means more potential for getting a read on someone, which is the only way to close that information gap.
There are slim pickings for things to respond to, but slim pickings is not nothing. BDS is the longest-running, most experienced player here iirc. Manti Rule-ing him off would suggest an experienced wolf--one who would have played with him enough to know that he's been around a while. For you newcomers, that's me, E. Gadd, and Olimar. Also, he was murked right after suggesting reaching out to the inactives on alternate platforms. The wolves have an incentive to keep thread activity during a manhunt game to a minimum, because that's how they get caught. So to my eye, the BDS wolfing looks like someone who's been around the block a few times but hasn't been engaged with the thread enough to say more than "experienced player getting people to talk? Get rid of him"
Olimar is the person who fits this mold the most right now, as someone who has been playing TWG here for a number of years but has only posted to say "I'm posting". Like E. Gadd, I'm interested in hearing what he thinks so far.
A# and Xiao, don't be shy, we need your input too!
rip BDS, you poor soul.
TWG finally returns and its just like before: instant BDS wolfing XD "it's day time, fools"Sadly BDS night 1 wolfing is a pretty safe call for the wolves. His sheer abundance in this side of the forums would paint a pretty obvious target on his head. But I do agree that it would most likely have been due to at least one of the wolves having been around to know that.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 02, 2023, 02:34:11 PMas someone who has been playing TWG here for a number of years but has only posted to say "I'm posting".
heh well it's only night 1 so what else is there to talk about?
Actually, an argument of "suspect the veterans" would be a pretty smart play from a wolf too, especially when we know at least one of them most likely is
also a veteran player.
Lmao I completely forgot to check the forums. Sorry for leaving you waiting, I'll be checking more frequently so I hopefully don't miss anything else! I'm mainly active on the Discord, so hello Forum Friends!
Regarding suspicions, E. Gadd reached out to me about the game earlier today (thanks btw). Going off of what TheZeldaPianist said, that indicates to me that E. Gadd would be safe.
Hello, World 36-1! Thanks for confirming that reach-out. E. Gadd is probably a safe pass for the lynch.
Ooooo lots of posting and thoughts! Thank you!!!
I'll give mine in a moment (chores wheeeee), but I wanted to say that this a very informative discussion so far :)
Okay time for thoughts
I agree with the general concensus that it would make sense for there to be at least one experienced wolf. That unfortunately leaves it wide-open for who the other could be, as inactive or inexperienced doesn't really make a difference as long as there is a vet to call the shots.
I didn't really tell World 36-1 anything with that PM he mentioned, it was simply to confirm activity and also hopefully to get some of his thoughts on the game (which he seems to have given some of them here). Otherwise he didn't respond to me directly.
Olimar, thank you for responding!
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 02, 2023, 03:44:49 PMBut I do agree that it would most likely have been due to at least one of the wolves having been around to know that.
I agree with your sentiments here. The only other way it could be inexperienced from this alone would be how much he was talking N1, but even that's a shot in the dark bc there were three others also talking quite a bit (and if anything,
iirc, I think BDS was on the quieter end for the four of us up until near phase end)
It still would've been nice had you spoken a bit more; even with N1 being... N1, it still is useful to see what sort of mindset everyone is in. Also useful to help the new players see what's important to look for, etc.
I still want to hear more thoughts from Xiao and World 36-1. To the latter, you didn't really give many thoughts aside from mentioning my PM and that you agree with TZP's sentiments. Do you have anything specific that you agree with especially? Any initial suspicions?
I have a few suspicions of my own, but at the risk of not wanting to cause a mislynch (given how few we have), I'm going to withhold them for now. I've PM'd the concerned parties and am awaiting a response. I will, however, reveal my suspicions regardless of whether or not they've responded before there are 12 hours remaining in the phase, and if I can, 18 hours before.
Ahh! Sorry for my absence everyone. Checking this forum slipped my mind as I've had a lot on my plate lately. Including perhaps a newly developing medical condition. Whoopee.
Thankfully it doesn't seem like this will be too long a read.
Hi! I was sleeping
FWIW: where I'm from we play an IRL version of this game, complete with many more interesting human-roles and other whacky mechanics. So I'm not completely clueless as to how things should work here:
I'm not sure if I agree with the idea that there's at least one experienced wolf. As Olimar already mentioned, BDS as a moderator and an active member could simply have been a random choice. That said, it's definitely not unlikely that there is at least one experienced wolf, given by the number of players alone.
Got distracted, got hungry, had some dinner. Hope it doesn't go through me as fast as my last meal. Doesn't seem like there's multiquoting on this forum except for the most recent posts in the advanced editor, so that's gonna severely cramp my usual style. Specific post links work, though, so I guess I can do some seat of my pants commentary with those, even if it's harder to read.
–
A# Minor is one of the
completely new people we've got here, right? If so, #6 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434527#msg434527) and following seem really boilerplate newbie-feeling-out-the-game content. Zelda's #12 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434536#msg434536) is helpful enough, but not really anything indicative of alignment in my eyes.
E. Gadd's #14 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434538#msg434538), however, gives me a slight town lean in context. He(?) seems to sense things going in an unproductive direction, particularly for this specific game setup, and puts in an attempt to steer it back.
(Yes, I'm an enby who routinely forgets to check pronouns, and then forgets people's pronouns once I learn them. We exist, unfortunately. Hell, I'd forget half of y'all's names if they weren't LITCHRULLY in front of me all the time.)
#15 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434539#msg434539), I guess this is true from a technical standpoint, but to
me, true-blue Lemmy's-Last-Sheet T-Dubs isn't
truly back until there's some
chunky mystery games with wacky mechanics and at least 3 different factions being run again. Probably not gonna happen anytime soon, but hey, a foxcat can dream!
#17 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434541#msg434541) by E.Gadd, you think some classic OC strats might come back even with PMs only? Like that one thing we always did when we thought we said too much to X and then contacted a third-party Y saying "if I die tonight, X might be a wolf?" I don't think we ever
named that, mind you, but it happened in some form
all the time. I wanna call it "deadhanding (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand)".
As for myself, I don't think I'll be doing too much badgering people over PMs. The real-time feedback/slip-ups/bouncing ideas/etc. of IM conversations was what made that element of our TWG tradition most powerful, IMO, and the PM system here is rather awkward for me. If only Trillian and all the services it linked still existed.
Okay, from the last page I know BDS must have died N1,
but after the game, Mr. Electrum, I gotta know what you think of the term "Lemmy's Last Sheet" above.Speaking of which:Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 01, 2023, 10:10:27 PMA quick list of everyone who's posted so far:
1. BlackDragonSlayer: posted
2. World 36-1: NOT posted
3. E. Gadd: posted
4. A# Minor: posted
5. TheZeldaPianist: posted
6. Kaiveran: NOT posted
7. Xiao: posted
8. Olimar12345: posted
Do we know whether or not the wolf kill is mandatory this game (i.e randomized if a wolf doesn't send it)? Because if it's not, we can pretty much confirm that World 36 and I are not partners, which would make her lock clear from my perspective. Which, y'know, feels like playing dirty a little bit, but it sure would be a nice piece of info to have.
Quote from: A# Minor on August 02, 2023, 08:51:35 AMYeah, 36-1 came online about an hour after the game started so he could be aware that the game is on but just didn't have time to post anything. Kaiveran (?) wasn't on since the 30th.
... That information was probably unnecessary XD
Speak of the devil. While I will largely concur with E. Gadd on the issue of status stalking being against the spirit of the game (and not totally reliable anyways) the information is out there now. And it appears from this that I cannot, in fact, lock-clear W36. Still, I guess it was worth a shot.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 02, 2023, 09:27:51 AMI will attempt to reach out to 36-1 and Kaiveran, plus I do think pinging the alive players on Discord for phase changes is a good idea that I will implement going forward.
As for BDS' final words:
they played me like a damn fiddle
I gotta concur with E.Gadd below this post; this is a rather cryptic yikes-post, and quite possibly speaks to some shenanigans going down in the Slayer's DMs Night 1.
Has anyone talked to BDS behind the scenes before his death? Did he tell you anything specific about certain players?(Sure, people can just outright lie and omit things about this, since he's no longer around to set the record straight, but any content in this vein might be useful for analysis down the road.)
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 02, 2023, 02:34:11 PMThe way this game is structured it definitely favors the wolves, even with cardflips. In the absence of any special roles, the information between the humans and the wolves is as wide as it can be. And with the numbers, we are allowed a grand total of one mislynch before the game could end. It is imperative that people be talking about their suspicions as much as possible. More information means more potential for getting a read on someone, which is the only way to close that information gap.
There are slim pickings for things to respond to, but slim pickings is not nothing. BDS is the longest-running, most experienced player here iirc. Manti Rule-ing him off would suggest an experienced wolf--one who would have played with him enough to know that he's been around a while. For you newcomers, that's me, E. Gadd, and Olimar. Also, he was murked right after suggesting reaching out to the inactives on alternate platforms. The wolves have an incentive to keep thread activity during a manhunt game to a minimum, because that's how they get caught. So to my eye, the BDS wolfing looks like someone who's been around the block a few times but hasn't been engaged with the thread enough to say more than "experienced player getting people to talk? Get rid of him"
Olimar is the person who fits this mold the most right now, as someone who has been playing TWG here for a number of years but has only posted to say "I'm posting". Like E. Gadd, I'm interested in hearing what he thinks so far.
A# and Xiao, don't be shy, we need your input too!
(Blue emphasis mine. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YJK_V0J9MI))
Even considering the inherent whyfoam (https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/User:Kaiveran#Whyfoam) in assuming players here will default to old patterns, this is a well-reasoned out, solid case for this stage in the game.
I would definitely like to hear a bit more from all the parties you mentioned before I commit to a vote though.
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 02, 2023, 03:44:49 PMheh well it's only night 1 so what else is there to talk about?
Actually, an argument of "suspect the veterans" would be a pretty smart play from a wolf too, especially when we know at least one of them most likely is also a veteran player.
Well, E. Gadd and BDS himself where trying to keep the activity up N1, and they both gave reasons for it. Is there a particular reason you didn't see fit to participate much in that discussion?
Quote from: World 36-1 on August 02, 2023, 03:46:05 PMLmao I completely forgot to check the forums. Sorry for leaving you waiting, I'll be checking more frequently so I hopefully don't miss anything else! I'm mainly active on the Discord, so hello Forum Friends!
Regarding suspicions, E. Gadd reached out to me about the game earlier today (thanks btw). Going off of what TheZeldaPianist said, that indicates to me that E. Gadd would be safe.
Welcome to the game, 36! (do you mind that nickname?)
And yeah, while it's nice that E. Gadd was proactive with PMing you, I wouldn't cement that in stone for all time as a town read. If we whiff today we are immediately at ELo the next Day and we have to then consider all options.
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 02, 2023, 03:50:58 PMHello, World 36-1! Thanks for confirming that reach-out. E. Gadd is probably a safe pass for the lynch.
Ok, like, I think E. Gadd has been decently towny thus far, but this sudden convergence on "E. Gadd is off the table" makes me think that at least one of 36 and Olimar have TMI.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 02, 2023, 11:41:34 PMHi! I was sleeping
FWIW: where I'm from we play an IRL version of this game, complete with many more interesting human-roles and other whacky mechanics. So I'm not completely clueless as to how things should work here:
I'm not sure if I agree with the idea that there's at least one experienced wolf. As Olimar already mentioned, BDS as a moderator and an active member could simply have been a random choice. That said, it's definitely not unlikely that there is at least one experienced wolf, given by the number of players alone.
At least you're going against the grain here...at least, as much of a "grain" as one other player's theory is, even if Olimar and 36 seem to concur with it.
Do you have any solid reads from this perspective yet?
slightly suspect: Olimar, 36
slightly unsuspect: E. Gadd, Zelda
need to hear more from: A# Minor, XiaoMigros
Hmm...
Olimar, why aren't you voting ZeldaPianist right now?
(serious question)
Hello, I'm here, I've been out for half of the afternoon, and forgot to post in the main thread.
...OOPS.I'm still getting used to the game right now. (Just so this space isn't blank,) this morning I was thinking one of the wolves may have been someone new because I guess any newer player would be scared of BDS, and now I'm not sure what I think since both arguments could make sense.
Come on A#m, it's not that hard to have an opinion. I'm also not too sure who to suspect yet (sCaNnInG fOr EvIdEnCe).
Also I'll be going somewhere tomorrow, so you probably won't hear from me until later in the afternoon. And I should have my mind back then so I could give you a decent explanation of what I'm thinking.
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 02, 2023, 11:50:55 PMnewbie-feeling-out-the-game content
I was just waiting for it XD
I'm interested to see who else gets wolfed. Even if BDS was a random choice, the discussions have potentially placed targets on the other experienced players.
I have had no interactions with BDS, so I can't be of much help there. If anyone else has had any convos with him, please share.
36 is fine, World 36-1 is kind of a mouthful lol
Wowie a lot has happened, loving this!!
So real quick, I have no PM history with BDS on this game. The people I've sent PMs to (but not necessarily in the context I mentioned in my last post):
-A#
-TZP
-36
-Olimar (who hasn't responded)
Now, for my comprehensive response up to this point:
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 02, 2023, 08:00:59 PMAhh! Sorry for my absence everyone. Checking this forum slipped my mind as I've had a lot on my plate lately. Including perhaps a newly developing medical condition. Whoopee.
Thankfully it doesn't seem like this will be too long a read.
Glad to see you're around! Hope the medical condition isn't too severe... :<
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 02, 2023, 11:41:34 PMI'm not sure if I agree with the idea that there's at least one experienced wolf. As Olimar already mentioned, BDS as a moderator and an active member could simply have been a random choice. That said, it's definitely not unlikely that there is at least one experienced wolf, given by the number of players alone.
I still lean more toward a vet player being on the team, but I do see the reasoning for this. It seems as though a few people have gone between inexperienced vs. experienced now. But now I believe we should start
also prioritizing wolf pairings, as some already have been. I'll give mine at the end of the post.
(Not gonna quote Kaiveran's major post, but will respond here, using a header to signify the end):
I am he/him, yes :)
"#17 by E.Gadd, you think some classic OC strats might come back even with PMs only? Like that one thing we always did when we thought we said too much to X and then contacted a third-party Y saying "if I die tonight, X might be a wolf?" I don't think we ever named that, mind you, but it happened in some form all the time. I wanna call it "deadhanding"."
Response: Not necessarily referring to classic strats. I was more talking about how I started remembering my previous times playing this game (it's been actually years) and all of my own mental notes and strategies were coming back to me. Less of a strategic post and more of a, "Gosh I missed TWG" post.
"Do we know whether or not the wolf kill is mandatory this game (i.e randomized if a wolf doesn't send it)? Because if it's not, we can pretty much confirm that World 36 and I are not partners, which would make her lock clear from my perspective. Which, y'know, feels like playing dirty a little bit, but it sure would be a nice piece of info to have."
-Unless there's been a major change of rules for this game from previous, then a wolf kill is NOT mandatory. I don't want to make assumptions though; THC, can you comment? But yes, on the comment you made immediately after that, there's still a possibility (if even slight) that you two could be partners.
"I would definitely like to hear a bit more from all the parties you mentioned before I commit to a vote though."
-Would be great if we got some more from Olimar. I'll be giving my comprehensive thoughts at the end of this post so people can see those and not just me responding to things. ...actually this will likely be a long post, I'll make my thoughts in a subsequent post (including wolf pairings).
"Well, E. Gadd and BDS himself where trying to keep the activity up N1, and they both gave reasons for it. Is there a particular reason you didn't see fit to participate much in that discussion?"
-This in particular. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't really appreciate the nonchalance, and (this is new) whether he's townie or wolf, that sort of behavior isn't helping town.
"Ok, like, I think E. Gadd has been decently towny thus far, but this sudden convergence on "E. Gadd is off the table" makes me think that at least one of 36 and Olimar have TMI."
-Combining with the previous comment you made to 36, unless I'm reading it wrong, I think they're referring to ruling out lynch candidates for this current phase. At the very least, with our current situation, absolutely no one is off the table in the long game, but it is beneficial to rule people out for a possible lynch this phase; it goes without saying that we need to be very careful and calculated since we only have one slip-up.
Quote from: World 36-1 on August 03, 2023, 06:56:38 AMI'm interested to see who else gets wolfed. Even if BDS was a random choice, the discussions have potentially placed targets on the other experienced players.
That's normally how this goes ye. It makes no sense no matter how you spin it for a wolf team where both are alive to target a less-experienced player. Unless they're actively trying to go for the confusion play, but that late in the game it won't matter as suspicions will be formed and accusations made, and brief confusion would clear up.
My original thoughts coming in the next post.
Okay, original thoughts. First and foremost, I'll do current suspicions and wolf pairings:
Suspicions (order doesnt matter, I'm just adding players as I remember who's what
1. TZP (ambivalent, will explain later)
2. A# (ambivalent, but slightly town lean)
3. Olimar (slightly suspicious)
4. 36 (slightly suspicious, quite less than Olimar, will explain later)
5. Kaiveran (more town leaning, or amazing wolf that I cannot make an accusation against at the moment)
6. Xiao (slightly suspicious)
7. E. Gadd (has been PMing a lot, but it's also me)
Wolf pairings:
TZP: A# Minor (weakly) (in PMs, they both had the same thought initially about BDS being wolfed by an inexperienced player but completely separately, which I thought was odd, could see it as new wolf following the thoughts of a more experienced wolf and being set up to bus the new wolf should things get rough) (*I can post PM receipts as needed, but I'll need to get to my laptop bc doing that on mobile is gonna be a headache)
A#: TZP (and that's really all the interaction I've seen)
Olimar: 36 (weakly) (obviously, both trying to clear me is room for suspect, but as I said in my previous post, I think it's just for one day phase. Or at least, it should be. I also could very much see 36 agreeing since he is newer and just wanting to jump on something more certain, even if that thing isn't all that certain to begin with)
E. Gadd (this one is more from PMs, in case they get brought up; I've been more accusatory to TZP than to Olimar despite also sharing that I don't like his nonchalance with not posting N1)
36: Olimar (weakly, see above)
Kaiveran: Xiao (very weakly) (I'm basing this off the fact that there's been no interaction between them whatsoever, aside from the brief list Kaiveran made)
Xiao: Kaiveran (by virtue of above, but no substantive information)
E. Gadd: Olimar (see above)
Okay, so there are a few points that I need to make now in the light of all of this:
1) To restate, I asked both TZP and A# separately in PMs what thoughts they had surrounding BDS's death, and they both initially attributed his death to an inexperienced player, which I haven't aligned with from the start; I could see the argument, but at the same time, I think the argument for a vet wolf is stronger, and more importantly, a vet wolf is more dangerous (apologies to any inexperienced wolves out there). It then struck me as odd when TZP apparently went back on that viewpoint here in the game thread, suggesting that a more experienced wolf would've done it. When confronted in PMs, he said that the inexperienced wolf would be one that targets based on trying to get players more active which BDS did toward the end of the night phase, whereas the experienced wolf would go after him because they know he has history and skill here. I say that any new person wanting to actually try could pretty easily figure out that BDS has skill by virtue of his posts contributing much to the overall town strategy (and that he's on TWC if people look around) rather than the less focused posts I made early on, for example. So the inexperienced argument doesn't hold, which would make sense why he turned on it (as did A# Minor, later). I also think that an inexperienced wolf calling the shots just doesn't make sense because it greatly limits who the partner could be (another inexperienced wolf or inactive); why would a vet wolf allow a new wolf to take the lead?
2) Following from that, I was initially extremely suspicious of TZP and A# (even to the point of PMing THC so he'd have it for the record in case I called it early D1), and decided to push the envelope by directly accusing A# in PMs as sort of a reaction test against them. Either way, I don't think it'd be wise to go after an inexperienced player D1 unless they slip up big time, so there was no danger backing up the accusation unless, again, slip ups happened. But anyway, I accused her and she responded in a way I was semi-expecting. Essentially, "I don't know what I'm doing, it made sense initially but now I can see it the other way." Hence, my ambivalence on my initial suspicions list.
3) I was a bit less direct with TZP, but essentially told him the same thing, that I'm suspicious of him and A#. He asked for PM receipts in response (which I'll be sending to you if you're reading this, TZP, but after I eat breakfast; I haven't eaten since I woke up and absolutely need food). I think he's been generally talkative enough to make him less of an immediate threat than Olimar.
4) In light of all of this, I think the best course of action is to go after a vet player, and specifically, an NSM vet player who knows that BDS is skilled and has experience. That's me, Olimar and TZP (unless I'm forgetting you from previous games, Kaiveran? Or if you have experience from other forums. Either way, I don't think you're on the chopping block for this phase). It's dangerous, going for a vet player, because assuming the wolves will as well, that's fewer and fewer experienced voices who can steer the ship D2 if we do get it wrong. But I think we'd be taking a (more) blind shot going for any other group. Even with Xiao's argument earlier that it could be a vet wolf argument to go for a vet wolf... that still leads to the importance of getting a vet wolf.
5) Now, I think Olimar is the best option at the moment, but I'm not going to vote formally yet on the chance that he comes back and gives some world-shattering thoughts about the game. And then there's also the chance that, if he has two votes on him, and none of the three of myself, TZP and Olimar are wolves (looking at you, Kaiveran), then there could be a wolf rush that we really don't need at the moment. Sure, we could know fairly well who the wolves are, but there would still be uncertainty depending on how the rush is done. And with the possibility of a vet wolf, they could orchestrate it one of those ways, OR a newer player could cast their vote on top of mine, unaware of what a wolf rush is, allowing for a wolf to play off of that.
6) Saying all of this, I absolutely need to hear more from Olimar and Xiao.
Sorry, I tried to post this almost an hour ago. Good grief my Internet is busted.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 03, 2023, 11:08:30 AMthe inexperienced wolf would be one that targets based on trying to get players more active which BDS did toward the end of the night phase, whereas the experienced wolf would go after him because they know he has history and skill here.....any new person wanting to actually try could pretty easily figure out that BDS has skill by virtue of his posts contributing much to the overall town strategy (and that he's on TWC if people look around)
You're undermining your own argument here. Whether an inexperienced wolf attacked BDS because he wanted people to be more active or because he has seniority, the inexperienced wolf is still a possibility as the attacker, and BDS still died. Seems like you're confusing cause and effect. We're just haggling about *why* an inexperienced wolf might have done it--the inexperienced wolf is still on the table as a possible culprit.
In any case, I think this bifurcation is kinda dumb. I'm inclined to agree that there's at least one wolf on the team that knew BDS, but that's partially just because of the numbers (3 or 4 out of 7 have played with him before). The reality is that a wolf could have picked BDS very easily regardless of skill level. E. Gadd, you're talking like you/me/Olimar are going to have a completely different set of processes than Xiao/A#/36. We all know how to play the game here.
I initially voted Olimar because someone needs to make a first accusation of the game, and Olimar is a combative enough player that I knew at least some kind of discussion would get going. I actually feel better about lynching him now than I did at the start of the day, though, partially because if he was human, I think the lynch would have gained more traction, with the wolves seeing an opportunity to push for a mislynch. Also, this
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 02, 2023, 03:50:58 PMHello, World 36-1! Thanks for confirming that reach-out. E. Gadd is probably a safe pass for the lynch.
is just kind of a strange thing to say. I don't think it makes E. Gadd necessarily Olimar's wolf partner--that would be preschool-tier wolf gameplay for Olimar--but it's still odd, and comes across a bit like someone trying to square his knowledge of the game with the publicly available knowledge about the game.
TL;DR I agree with E. Gadd's suspicions, less so his framework and premises. I'm honestly kinda baffled by these, because you've explicitly said that the inexperienced wolf could have attacked BDS for *the exact same set* of reasons as the experienced wolf. I've said that it could have been an inexperienced wolf or an experienced one in different places because I can see it both ways, and it sounds like you can too, so I don't know why you are insisting that it has to be one of the senior players.
do we find out if the person who dies is an impostor/werewolf
Yes. See the Day 1 update post, where BDS flipped green. That's what it looks like
Time for some thoughts from me.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 03, 2023, 11:08:30 AM1) ... So the inexperienced argument doesn't hold, which would make sense why he turned on it (as did A# Minor, later).
OK, what happened here? I made a point to say this:
Quote from: A# Minor on August 02, 2023, 10:01:46 PMeven though it may have seemed so, I never doubted the possibility of having an experienced wolf on the team, and I don't recall saying that I agreed with TZP.
And it seems like you forgot that. I only said that his argument makes sense.
So after his last post, I have a feeling that E. Gadd is trying to separate us into groups based on what we think and is basically saying "A# and TZP are going for the argument that makes less sense in my opinion, so they're both wolves". He hasn't given any other reasons to suspect us.
Ninja'd x2
as for my thoughts: i think its a little early for me to say anything with confidence, but olimar does seem a little sus. im not sure if its enough to warrant voting for him, but a few of his comments did strike me as a little off
@E Gadd: if we vote out a vet, whos to say we get a wolf? if we end up selecting a human that leaves 0-2 vet humans, making the rest of the game more difficult. though, at the same time, if the wolves kill another vet again next round...
also i dont think we should limit ourselves to one vet being the wolf, its quite possible theres two
Hi its meeeeeeeee
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 02, 2023, 11:41:34 PMI'm not sure if I agree with the idea that there's at least one experienced wolf. As Olimar already mentioned, BDS as a moderator and an active member could simply have been a random choice. That said, it's definitely not unlikely that there is at least one experienced wolf, given by the number of players alone.
Not sure I jive with this bit here. It comes across too "maybe it was random maybe it wasn't" to me, not to mention wolfing someone because they're a mod/active member
is a reason and would make it not a random choice XD
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 02, 2023, 11:50:55 PMWell, E. Gadd and BDS himself where trying to keep the activity up N1, and they both gave reasons for it. Is there a particular reason you didn't see fit to participate much in that discussion?
No reason, I don't think I was even on my pc much then. Night 1's are usually slow and in the past here haven't been eventful /shrug
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 02, 2023, 11:50:55 PMOk, like, I think E. Gadd has been decently towny thus far, but this sudden convergence on "E. Gadd is off the table" makes me think that at least one of 36 and Olimar have TMI.
If you're referring to my human-vibes from E. Gadd in that quote, I had taken E. Gadd's activity prior to that into consideration before I posted that reply. It was more like, "oh he seems pretty active and posting helpfully, and now this other person confirmed something they did so ok"
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 02, 2023, 11:58:32 PMOlimar, why aren't you voting ZeldaPianist right now?
(serious question)
Because I would definitely like to hear a bit more from all the parties you mentioned before I commit to a vote, though!
jokes aside, ig as of posting this that's the most sus thing I've seen yet so sure
TZP ynot (sry lovely)
Still catching up with the latest replies, more soon
Aye, due to circumstances I have only a scant few minutes to devote to this game today (the IRL today, not toDay).
Also, I should have mentioned this earlier, but due to my accursed work schedule, I will be largely unavailable on Thursdays, Saturday, or Sundays.
I mostly agree with E.Gadd's first post on this page
don't really have time to go over the second in detail but pairwise analysis is prob the best way to solve this thing going forward
I think TZP makes a good point and like, purely from the play of statistics over the mixed bag of players we have here, we shouldn't get too caught up in the seniority argument
nice to have confirmation from THC, but with the cat out of the bag about 36 being there at SoN (as Gadd pointed out) it doesn't really mean much
as for Olimar I can buy the first counterpoint, but I have trouble with the second. from town!Oli's POV one would think that if you're embracing the perspectives that he seemed to have (vets are more likely wolf, E. Gadd is clear), and you're obviously clearing yourself from that pool, then the only remaining option in that lane is TZP. and I can understand wanting to reserve your vote but I would expect some actual prodding of TZP in lieu of that, and I haven't seen that at all
gah why is the phase transition time early morning
I'll try to check back up on things late tonight but I'm probably missing EoD
out for now.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 03, 2023, 12:26:06 PMI actually feel better about lynching him now than I did at the start of the day, though, partially because if he was human, I think the lynch would have gained more traction, with the wolves seeing an opportunity to push for a mislynch.
Possibly, but with as weak of a sus as that was I think it would out more wolves than it would help wolves d: One mislynch is survivable for us hoomans, but if it means outing a wolf that could be detrimental to them.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 03, 2023, 12:26:06 PMAlso, this [link] (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434568#msg434568) is just kind of a strange thing to say. I don't think it makes E. Gadd necessarily Olimar's wolf partner--that would be preschool-tier wolf gameplay for Olimar--but it's still odd, and comes across a bit like someone trying to square his knowledge of the game with the publicly available knowledge about the game.
idk what to say about this lol. imo you're reading waaay to far into that one.
oh my god i am just now realizing this is a sequel to this game (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=9588.0) lmaooo
anyway, here's a good ol' fashion sus list (in order from most to least):
sus lean
1. Xiao (yes, that's a vote switch right there): reading through the thread again, Xiao has made 4 posts. 18 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434542#msg434542)was a basic N1 check-in, and 42 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434575#msg434575) seemed too much like forcing a neutral reply, which I already mentioned. (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434593#msg434593) 53 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434589#msg434589) was a basic question, making these mostly unsubstantial from someone who says they're not new to the game (igi, its still early game but eh, its getting old). But with post 56 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434592#msg434592) we get more "mayby but maybe not's" coupled with a seemingly bandwagon-y sus of me with the unexplained "a few of his comments did strike me as a little off." To me they're either very unexperienced and just trying to make conversation (which contradicts their comment about having played this before) or they're trying to stay super neutral by tiptoing like a wolfy, wolf-wolf!
2. TZP: well he did admit that his prodding me was to get activity from me (though not taking the bait somehow made me sus oops). It makes sense though, so that's why I unvoted you. Though I have my eyes on you...
3. 36: No N1 post oof but igi life is a thing. Your PM confirming post looks good imo, but your second post (48) (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434581#msg434581) slightly ruffles my jimmies with that wolfing comment, even with the later half being a big vanilla.. Idk with only 2 posts you lean a tad neutral as well.
human lean
1. Olimar: I don't suspect myself because im not a wolf!
2. E. Gadd: Already mentioned here (//http://) and here. (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12724.msg434593#msg434593)
3. A# Minor: N1 posts seemed pretty genuine and appear more new-to-game, human-esque to me. I would imagine a new player being more careful as a first-time wolf, so I'm going to trust my gut for now on that one.
no lean
1. Kaiveran: Lots of content so much content yes this is good mhm mhm. Hard for me to make out your role one way or the other yet, but soonnn
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 03, 2023, 02:51:39 PMgah why is the phase transition time early morning
I work third shift.Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 03, 2023, 03:42:46 PMoh my god i am just now realizing this is a sequel to this game (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=9588.0) lmaooo
r/woosh
I'm uncomfortable with the number of people putting me in the sus list, so I'll take this opportunity to vouch for myself here.
The main reason for me not posting a ton yet is because I'm a newbie, so I'm still studying how the rest of you play. There's certainly a lot more complex strategies here than what I ever did with my friends, so I want to learn as much as I can before I start accusing others.
Not the strongest argument, I know, but better than nothing!
I can understand why you'd say that 36, but the game is structured such that you're penalized for not voting someone. It's okay if you don't have any extremely strong suspicions at this point in the game, but if you don't vote you get a phantom—check the rules for what happens with those. That goes for the other new players as well, by my count there are still five other people that need to make up their minds one way or another before tomorrow morning.
I'm keeping my vote on Olimar, that wasn't a defense with much substance to it at all. I think my points stand.
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 03, 2023, 02:29:00 PMNot sure I jive with this bit here. It comes across too "maybe it was random maybe it wasn't" to me, not to mention wolfing someone because they're a mod/active member is a reason and would make it not a random choice XD
I didnt mean random as in pure chance, but random as in some wolves just choosing
someone to go for
Well, since I'm going to bed,
E. Gadd. (But I'm watching you, Xiao...)
Also, turns out I'm going out tomorrow instead,
Quote from: A# Minor on August 03, 2023, 12:23:16 AMso you probably won't hear from me until later in the afternoon.
I might have some time to reply to a couple of PMs in the morning though (if I have any)
Fack
I conked out as soon as I got home.
I don't even know the votecount or if DL is past yet, but I know I don't want Gadd to hang
Olimar
Look at me in my phone at work, tisk tisk. THC, is there dead chat allowed? Not that the game will last much longer after mislynching me d:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 03, 2023, 08:01:14 PMI'm keeping my vote on Olimar, that wasn't a defense with much substance to it at all. I think my points stand.
Lol well your argument wasn't that strong so idk what you're fishing for here
Eh, TZP. Ig it doesn't matter much since I'm pretty much guaranteed dead but if I live Xiao can wait.
twg cxiv: nothing special 2: electric boogaloo2 wolves, 6 humans. the wolves kill one player per night via pm and everybody votes on lynches during the day. this game has cardflips. pms are allowed, just makes sure to include the host in all game-related pms. this game is forum-only.
roles
1. wolf
2. wolf
3. human
4. human
5. human
6. human
7. human
8. human
players
1. BlackDragonSlayer2. World 36-1
3. E. Gadd
4. A# Minor
5. TheZeldaPianist
6. Kaiveran
7. Xiao
8. Olimar12345role pms
you're a wolf. your partner is ______. try to kill humans.
you're a human. try to hunt some wolves.
(I'll add his last words in another post once I get them.)
oh no
Damn. Sorry, Olimar.
A# what was up with that hailmary E. Gadd vote? He wasn't on the table as a lynch candidate, nor even at the top of anyone's suspicion lists.
at that point it was more than a safety than anything. I wasn't sure if I wanted Xiao to die just yet, and I didn't want to put myself in the current KITB
* more of
TZP ig, idk, vibes just seem a little weird
... it's nighttime
Sorry for not voting, I got put in a... very difficult situation yesterday afternoon (irl) that has effectively kept my mind occupied more so than what I would like to keep the conversation going.
That said, I believe I should be able to keep going. I also think phantoms are not at play in this game (and actually, THC just verified in DMs, if he wants to verify publically here).
Now, for the game:
Welp. Olimar flipping human is concerning, but that goes without saying.
I respect A#'s voting me; she was responding to my accusation with one of her own, and in my eyes, that removes suspicion from her. Although the strategy causing a massive KitB is a bit risky, but I don't view that as a wolfy thing to do in this context.
Finally, to respond to TZP and A# regarding my continuing down the new/vet wolf line of thinking, I realized that it's not really all that useful at this point. I was definitely talking circles around myself, but at the time it made sense. Either way, for me, it was something that both of you brought up in my initial PMs to you, so naturally I thought it could be something worthwhile to pursue (seeing as anything is useful early D1). However, now that we are where we are, I agree that focus needs to be drawn elsewhere.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 04, 2023, 10:44:18 AMTHC just verified in DMs, if he wants to verify publically here
You need to complete the captcha to verify.å̴̧̳̰̜̤̪̀͐̂̇Ṡ̵͍͠K̷̯̫̇̄̔̌͠j̶̧̯͕̰̯̓̉̐͛͘̚͘͜͜h̶͚̼̞́̀̈́̌͋̕͝͠ḋ̶̦̘͕̮̲͉1̶̛̛͕̝̰̖̹̹̆̏̓̅̾̓̀
Oh my gosh, that is even harder than the captchas with pictures...
twg cxiv: nothing special 2: electric boogaloo2 wolves, 6 humans. the wolves kill one player per night via pm and everybody votes on lynches during the day. this game has cardflips. pms are allowed, just makes sure to include the host in all game-related pms. this game is forum-only.
roles
1. wolf
2. wolf
3. human
4. human
5. human
6. human
7. human
8. human
players
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. World 36-13. E. Gadd
4. A# Minor
5. TheZeldaPianist
6. Kaiveran
7. Xiao
8. Olimar12345role pms
you're a wolf. your partner is ______. try to kill humans.
you're a human. try to hunt some wolves.
(I'll add his last words in another post once I get them.)
36's last words:
Now is the time for the PMs to be revealed to all
Since today is my birthday, idk how much I'm going to be around (I'm baking lasagna for a party I'm hosting tomorrow). I'll try to be around as much as possible seeing as the situation I mentioned irl actually ended up being not as bad as I thought, and also we're at a very critical point in the game. But for now...
Xiao, I need to hear from you, and a lot more. If you have experience with this type of game, then I implore you to use it and help us deduce who the wolf pair is, if not you and someone else. Who do you think is most suspicious at this point? And don't just say "weird vibes", give a reason. And for those who say are most suspicious, who is their most likely wolf pair?
And for all the new people, unless a person slips up and tells you that they're a wolf (with some proof, obvs), DO NOT vote early on. Wolves could trigger a "wolf rush" and pile onto your vote if you aren't voting on a wolf, ending the game right then and there.
As for 36's death message, has anyone else PM'd him?
He has only ever responded to my PMs once, but I did only ever send two. Those were sent during my run against TZP and A#, and they were kept a bit vague due to my not fully trusting 36 as well. I added context in bold to one as I was copy/pasting them over to clarify my suspicions (since I told him I was keeping them vague in the message) at the time of sending.
Initial PMQuote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 02, 2023, 11:18:26 AMHello. I hope you see this because we need you active in this game. I'm starting to see some interesting things develop but before I divulge anything, I want to hear your thoughts on the game so far.
Second PM (he didn't respond to the first)Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 02, 2023, 04:47:34 PMHello again! I wanted to send you this message before I make my post in the game thread, but I'm going to be making some verrrry generalized statements that appear to be useful but aren't actually. I'm doing this at the risk of taking on some suspicion, but the reason I'm doing so is, I currently have some very specific suspicions at the moment due to things not lining up in PMs and what's being said in the game thread (Added for context: TZP and A#, no longer the case). I'm waiting on responses from them before I go public with my suspicions, but I wanted to tell at least you of my plan so it's written somewhere and someone has access to it.
Doesn't mean I necessarily trust you, but I trust you more than those others at the moment (because you haven't given me something one way or another). Also, you're welcome for the check-in message X)
Final PM (Note: He didn't "Reply All" to include THC, so the quoting system is weird on this one. I didn't notice it the first time else I would've correct it and sent to THC sooner)on: August 03, 2023, 08:32:07 AMFrom: World 36-1
Hmmm... ok. I'll hold on to your message in case you get wolfed/lynched
I am extremely pressed for time and basically will only be able to actually play on Sunday
I was thinking it might be Xiao & 36 b/c reading their posts you'd be forgiven for thinking they didn't even know each other were in the game, but then 36 died
From memory I feel like Xiao & A# Minor gave me similar feelings, but Gadd seems to lock-clear her so i'd urge him to share with the class when appropriate
oh yeah and IT'S LYLO so don't vote until you're damn sure of your vote.
A# Minor and E Gadd is a possibility, but I feel like TZP and you are too, Kaiveran. It does seem a little obvious to downright agree with them in your analysis post, but I do get the sense both of you have been avoiding each other somewhat. Not to mention, TZP has been more agressive and directly confrontational towards the others, as if trying to divide our attention.
yey, it is time for me to analyze all players and possible wolf pairs
1–ThatHiddenCharacter: He's... that. And he's HIDDEN. What more must I say?
OK, jokes aside:
1–Xiao: To be honest, I've had a bad feeling about him since the beginning, and now everything seems to point towards him being a wolf.
2–Kaiveran: They've been so neutral that they're starting to become suspicious (to me) because of it.
3–TZP: I don't have much to analyze with him, but in my eyes he can definitely be a wolf because of that. CoMe BaCk AnD tAlK
4–E. Gadd: I don't see any reason to suspect him any more.
5–A# Minor: I feel silly about adding my name here.
Xiao/Kaiveran: If TZP isn't a wolf, then this is it.
Xiao/TZP: If Kaiveran isn't a wolf, then this is it.
Xiao/E. Gadd: Very unlikely.
Xiao/A#m: I, uh, haven't said a word to him.
TZP/Kaiveran: If Xiao isn't a wolf, then this is it, but I'd be shocked if he isn't.
TZP/E. Gadd: Then I'd wonder what in the world they were doing earlier.
TZP/A#m: We only PM'd each other like once or twice.
A#m/E. Gadd: I don't think it's normal for wolves to openly suspect each other.
Kaiveran/A#m: To avoid writing it a third time, I'll say this instead: I should really talk to people.
I think that covers everything.
Also, I'd like to note that this took like an hour to complete.
/|\(^._.^)/|\ (I did tell you)
Also, what is LYLO?
check in real quick during a lull
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 05, 2023, 02:25:32 PMA# Minor and E Gadd is a possibility, but I feel like TZP and you are too, Kaiveran. It does seem a little obvious to downright agree with them in your analysis post, but I do get the sense both of you have been avoiding each other somewhat. Not to mention, TZP has been more agressive and directly confrontational towards the others, as if trying to divide our attention.
tbis seems pretty rational from a town Xiao pov, but in what sense have do you feel I've been avoiding Zelda
I gave my mild town read of him and as I remember I didn't get much of a response from him, so I think there's an asymmetry you're not accounting for here
Not saying that can't be telling off course . What exactly is scummy about Zelda's aggression do you think?
Checking in here for no other reason than to say I have not forgotten about this. I'm on the road visiting my girlfriend's family right now, but will be around tomorrow afternoon to hash things out before the end of the phase.
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 05, 2023, 02:01:29 PMFrom memory I feel like Xiao & A# Minor gave me similar feelings, but Gadd seems to lock-clear her so i'd urge him to share with the class when appropriate
I get that you're busy, but if you do find the time, I'd like to see if your memory stands up to reading through the game thread for interactions. As for me, it isn't necessarily that it's a lock-clear, but the way A# is playing is very much a "Hey I'm new and just trying to figure out whatever I can and help wherever I can". If she's a wolf and this is her first game ever and she's playing like that, I think we've stumbled upon a TWG prodigy, or at the very least, I've never seen something like that in my time of playing.
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 05, 2023, 02:02:30 PMoh yeah and IT'S LYLO so don't vote until you're damn sure of your vote.
Not to mention the potential for a wolf rush from one (1) vote placed by a town on a town. I'm going to be up late tomorrow night analyzing if others want to join me; I'll be asleep for phase change so it'll be the only time I can really contribute to the phase outside of what I'm doing now.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 05, 2023, 02:25:32 PMA# Minor and E Gadd is a possibility, but I feel like TZP and you are too, Kaiveran. It does seem a little obvious to downright agree with them in your analysis post, but I do get the sense both of you have been avoiding each other somewhat. Not to mention, TZP has been more agressive and directly confrontational towards the others, as if trying to divide our attention.
I mean, I def see where you're coming from with me and A#, but I've definitely gone back and forth on where I stand with her. After bluntly accusing her in PM of being a wolf, she responded with equal aggression by accusing me out here of latching onto what I was accusing her of. Like I said above, if she's a wolf, then holy smokes we are witnessing the (hopefully) start of an amazing TWG career. As for TZP and Kaiveran, I could see it. But they haven't avoided each other as much as you have avoided... really everyone in general. And TZP's confrontationality also happened before Kaiveran started getting really involved, so naturally he wouldn't have a lot of suspicion on someone who isn't talking (aside from generic "this person is inactive, why" suspicion). At least, that's how I interpret it.
Not quoting, but A# Minor's suspicion post is great for a first timer. Couple of issues that aren't really consequential to this game, I'm happy to talk about them after the game ends though (although I imagine Kaiveran might have more to say with more experience).
Quote from: A# Minor on August 05, 2023, 06:04:57 PMAlso, what is LYLO?
I forget what it stands for, but it's like, "you mislynch, you lose"
Kinda distracted atm, making lasagna for a birthday dinner I'm hosting tomorrow. But there's where I stand. I'd like to hear Xiao's response to Kaiveran's most recent questions. I'll give wolf pairing candidates after that (although it may be tomorrow)
Ninja'd by TZP, thanks for checking in here and for ensuring you'll be around tomorrow!
Quote from: A# Minor on August 05, 2023, 05:40:42 PM1–Xiao: To be honest, I've had a bad feeling about him them since the beginning, and now everything seems to point towards him being a wolf.
can you elaborate on at least a few of these things? you didnt give a reason in your post
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 05, 2023, 06:51:27 PMNot saying that can't be telling off course . What exactly is scummy about Zelda's aggression do you think?
im not sure, just something about the upfront play style that seems a little off? maybe thats just how they play generally, i wouldnt know. singling in on olimar without a strong reason, for instance
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 05, 2023, 07:59:19 PMBut they haven't avoided each other as much as you have avoided... really everyone in general.
especially at the start there was very little going on, so i couldnt really say much i was confident in. all of these messages are also a little difficult to navigate so ive had a hard time making lengthy posts, but youll notice their length has only increased the longer the game has gone on
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 05, 2023, 07:59:19 PMIf she (A# Minor)'s a wolf and this is her first game ever and she's playing like that, I think we've stumbled upon a TWG prodigy, or at the very least, I've never seen something like that in my time of playing.
i dont see how this is so ground breaking, this would be exactly my game plan also if i was a wolf. her actions also in pms line up with how i would see myself behaving if i was a wolf. the fact that this is enough for you to almost lock-clear her makes both of you look suspicious, if anything.
warning others not to vote me also, if they both do
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 03:51:11 AMim not sure, just something about the upfront play style that seems a little off? maybe thats just how they play generally, i wouldnt know. singling in on olimar without a strong reason, for instance
TZP wasn't the only one to go after Olimar. D1 lynch we all had very little go off of (you say yourself below). If an aggressive play style bothers you, then I do wonder about your previous experience with this game. Is it just with a single friend group? Because aggressive playstyles exist for both town and human. Also I like how you're using that aggression to say TZP is sus but then ignoring my aggression in favor of looking at how I view A# (which I cover below).
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 03:51:11 AMespecially at the start there was very little going on, so i couldnt really say much i was confident in. all of these messages are also a little difficult to navigate so ive had a hard time making lengthy posts, but youll notice their length has only increased the longer the game has gone on
Same issue we had with Olimar, and even though he was town, he wasn't helping town's case by not talking. Same with you. Naturally, posts get longer as this game goes on but come on, any sort of effort would've been nice. How's about asking people questions? Why didn't you do any of that early on? That's useful for getting the conversation going. Only waiting for people to ask you questions, and then responding minimally to them isn't useful whatsoever.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 03:51:11 AMi dont see how this is so ground breaking, this would be exactly my game plan also if i was a wolf. her actions also in pms line up with how i would see myself behaving if i was a wolf. the fact that this is enough for you to almost lock-clear her makes both of you look suspicious, if anything.
warning others not to vote me also, if they both do
When I played wolf for the first time, I hung toward the back and didn't interact much. I wanted to stay low to the ground. And you're telling me that your plan if this was your first game as a wolf, would be to engage from the beginning and even go into PMs and show effort throughout the game? Jeez, you must be some amazing wolf then.
Oh waitI'm not "lock-clearing" her, and in fact am still very heavily monitoring her posts and messages for any sort of slip up. But what I am saying is that you're being a heck of a lot more suspicious than she is, and this has been a consistent motif throughout the game. If this wasn't a LYLO situation, I would 100% be voting for you right now.
And to comment on that last sentence of yours:
"Warning others not to vote me also if Xiao and [???] do too"
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 06, 2023, 06:48:14 AMIf an aggressive play style bothers you, then I do wonder about your previous experience with this game. Is it just with a single friend group? Because aggressive playstyles exist for both town and human.
im just going to ignore these less than nice comments, they arent going to help anyone...
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 06, 2023, 06:48:14 AMAlso I like how you're using that aggression to say TZP is sus but then ignoring my aggression in favor of looking at how I view A# (which I cover below).
as is evident you yourself believe, playing aggressively is a valid strategy for both sides. so why would i bring it up if there are more compelling reasons to doubt you?
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 06, 2023, 06:48:14 AMSame issue we had with Olimar, and even though he was town, he wasn't helping town's case by not talking. Same with you.
Voting out me and olimar for
our play styles isnt going to help either. the way i see things,is: if i have nothing useful to say, why say anything? what value does my hypothetical suspicion post bring if its not backed up with anything of substance? for the stuff i did say it was already asked i give more proof, something difficult to do if there isnt much to go off of.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 06, 2023, 06:48:14 AMWhen I played wolf for the first time, I hung toward the back and didn't interact much. I wanted to stay low to the ground. And you're telling me that your plan if this was your first game as a wolf, would be to engage from the beginning and even go into PMs and show effort throughout the game?
A# Minor has been chatty and active since before the game started as well, its hardly out of character to take a more heads on approach like this. especially since its clear that you arent fond of the quieter players...
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 06, 2023, 06:48:14 AMI'm not "lock-clearing" her, and in fact am still very heavily monitoring her posts and messages for any sort of slip up.
i didnt imply you did lock-clear her, but you do seem to trust her more than the other players and i dont share your confidence in this. nothing ive seen makes me feel like she couldnt be a wolf, but of course, that doesnt mean she
has to be one either
also, id be interested to hear from you as to who you think my wolf partner would be, E Gadd...
shahkvnsma :D :D :D :D
jsk. Woosk akska skk
Um, please ignore that. I'll be able to reply to some of this once I get something to eat
...??? Are you okay?
Anyway,
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 07:52:11 AMalso, id be interested to hear from you as to who you think my wolf partner would be, E Gadd...
I don't have a ton of time, so this will be all I can reply to until later today (11-12 hours from now :< )
I can see a wolf pairing with Kaiveran. You two have been avoiding each other quite deftly up until very recently (as in, they have also not engaged with you), compared to TZP who has generally tried to interact with you. A# would also be a good strategy, but I'm not sure I believe that one as strongly as the others.
There is only one key detail that makes me question Kaiveran's role, in that they PMd me at a time that it would not make sense for a wolf to PM me at (specifically, middle of N2), but in my mind that could go either way, as a wolf could easily reach out with the intent not to wolf that person, to get them thinking they're town.
Also
"im just going to ignore these less than nice comments, they arent going to help anyone..."
Apologies if my message came across that way; I wasn't intending for it to be taken as a personal attack. I had just woken up and wasn't really thinking about how my words could be received. For what it's worth, I was more hoping you would comment on your experience so to see if you would have been more likely to be exposed to an aggressive play style, but seeing as you now don't seem to have an issue with it, I'm wondering why you had issue with TZP's style. Unless you're just trying to find something to hang him for since there's not much else.
It wasn't so much trying to hang him for something, but more that it kinda stood out from everyone else. in my mind playing aggressively doesnt make much sense to do at the beginning of the game.
As for my own experience, I've played irl countless times but there its much easier to pick up on social cues, theres more logic available than just pure text. thats probably why i havent been able to say that much, ive just felt like theres less to comment on than im used to otherwise.
and finally me and kaiveran, definitely the most obvious pairing with me. nothing i can say to denounce that really
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 03:51:11 AMcan you elaborate on at least a few of these things? you didnt give a reason in your post
Well, to quote someone who can say it much better than I can:
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 03, 2023, 03:42:46 PMthey're trying to stay super neutral by TIPTOEING like a wolfy, wolf-wolf!
This is exactly what you've been doing. Seems to me like you're trying your best to stay quiet to avoid slip-ups rather than just going "I don't see anything to comment on, so I'm not gonna say anything." (Although I'm glad to actually hear something from you now.) I'll post some more later if I remember something else, but I'll most likely be active later tonight too
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 09:17:46 AMand finally me and kaiveran, definitely the most obvious pairing with me.
Very true indeed.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 06, 2023, 09:07:37 AM... ??? Are you okay?
I'm fine, but I'm not sure I could say the same for my phone. I left it on the nightstand to brush my teeth and I came back to that :o
Quote from: A# Minor on August 06, 2023, 11:07:11 AMSeems to me like you're trying your best to stay quiet to avoid slip-ups rather than just going "I don't see anything to comment on, so I'm not gonna say anything."
Again, the few times I've commented on stuff it's been met with 'needs more info', 'please elaborate', etc. I already mentioned that for this reason, if I have nothing to say, that's what I'll do, say nothing.
Also, I don't see how
not to be neutral until there are large enough signs someone might be a wolf? I don't like making baseless accusations, so, for the most part, I didn't. Sorry if that looks bad on me, but I don't see why it should.
Checking in real quick, looks like I'm gonna have to do things off the cuff with whatever minutes I can steal today because I have to move a complex game forward tonight (https://www.giraffeboards.com/forumdisplay.php?f=33) (which I still haven't made a spreadsheet for :facepalm:) and I don't think the wee hours of the night will be a buzzing hub of activity somehow.
Thankfully all the stuff I've missed from toDay is in the summary view.
Quote from: A# Minor on August 05, 2023, 05:40:42 PMyey, it is time for me to analyze all players and possible wolf pairs
1–ThatHiddenCharacter: He's... that. And he's HIDDEN. What more must I say?
OK, jokes aside:
1–Xiao: To be honest, I've had a bad feeling about him since the beginning, and now everything seems to point towards him being a wolf.
2–Kaiveran: They've been so neutral that they're starting to become suspicious (to me) because of it.
3–TZP: I don't have much to analyze with him, but in my eyes he can definitely be a wolf because of that. CoMe BaCk AnD tAlK
4–E. Gadd: I don't see any reason to suspect him any more.
5–A# Minor: I feel silly about adding my name here.
Xiao/Kaiveran: If TZP isn't a wolf, then this is it.
Xiao/TZP: If Kaiveran isn't a wolf, then this is it.
Xiao/E. Gadd: Very unlikely.
Xiao/A#m: I, uh, haven't said a word to him.
TZP/Kaiveran: If Xiao isn't a wolf, then this is it, but I'd be shocked if he isn't.
TZP/E. Gadd: Then I'd wonder what in the world they were doing earlier.
TZP/A#m: We only PM'd each other like once or twice.
A#m/E. Gadd: I don't think it's normal for wolves to openly suspect each other.
Kaiveran/A#m: To avoid writing it a third time, I'll say this instead: I should really talk to people.
I think that covers everything.
Also, I'd like to note that this took like an hour to complete.
/|\(^._.^)/|\ (I did tell you)
I also think putting yourself in an analysis/list is silly, but I also understand it used to happen as a matter of course, so no fault for that.
I understand feeling locked into Xiao at this point (b/c he's been the most underwhelming before toDay) but I think you should elaborate on TZP specifically, because of potential pairing with Xiao and also the PMs.
My main sticking point here is you "not saying a word" to Xiao. Because as I discussed with Gadd via PMs, attacking fellow wolves ("bussing") is typically not something wolves in this tradition do unless forced to. And we really haven't seen any overt
defenses either. Which means the primary wolf strategy here would be to
ignore/nullread each other. Since your interaction with Xiao slots right into that theory, hopefully my suspicion makes a bit more sense. (although Gadd seems to disagree, hopefully I'll have time to get to his response)
Finally, don't feel too bad about the time taken – when I'm at my sweatiest I can take 2-4 hours to assemble one of my mighty analysis/casing walls. Although that my partially be down to my dumb ADHD-brain, meow.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 05, 2023, 07:59:19 PMI get that you're busy, but if you do find the time, I'd like to see if your memory stands up to reading through the game thread for interactions. As for me, it isn't necessarily that it's a lock-clear, but the way A# is playing is very much a "Hey I'm new and just trying to figure out whatever I can and help wherever I can". If she's a wolf and this is her first game ever and she's playing like that, I think we've stumbled upon a TWG prodigy, or at the very least, I've never seen something like that in my time of playing.
Not quoting, but A# Minor's suspicion post is great for a first timer. Couple of issues that aren't really consequential to this game, I'm happy to talk about them after the game ends though (although I imagine Kaiveran might have more to say with more experience).
I forget what it stands for, but it's like, "you mislynch, you lose"
Unfortunately, as I went into above, it's probably not gonna be until way late at night that I actuall get the wherewithal to do my usual thing, it's gonna be hampered by the fact that, in all likelihood, I'm gonna have to
follow others' votes even if they're not optimal by my analysis (because they won't be awake to follow my vote). Still, I suppose it's worth a shot.
I do somewhat agree with the latter, though, which is why I'm trying to give her some space to elaborate.
(gotta go.)
All right everyone, I'm here for the finale. I know I owe a couple of you PMs--bear with me while I get my bearings, I think there's a lot for me to respond to. Couple minutia from a skim:
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 06, 2023, 02:54:44 PMwhen I'm at my sweatiest I can take 2-4 hours to assemble one of my mighty analysis/casing walls
^this is absolutely right, I always think these games aren't going to take much attention but then there's one random day where I spend three hours staring at the player list, willing it to make sense lol
Quote from: A# Minor on August 06, 2023, 08:55:41 AMshahkvnsma :D :D :D :D
jsk. Woosk akska skk
nice
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 09:17:46 AMI've played irl countless times
What irl versions have you played?
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 06, 2023, 02:54:44 PMI understand feeling locked into Xiao at this point (b/c he's been the most underwhelming before toDay) but I think you should elaborate on TZP specifically, because of potential pairing with Xiao and also the PMs.
Like I said, I haven't had much interaction with TZP, so I don't have much to go off of at the moment, but if you're not Xiao's partner, I'm pretty sure he is. And for the record, he only PM'd me to ask for my chat log with E. Gadd.
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 06, 2023, 02:54:44 PM
My main sticking point here is you "not saying a word" to Xiao. Because as I discussed with Gadd via PMs, attacking fellow wolves ("bussing") is typically not something wolves in this tradition do unless forced to. And we really haven't seen any overt defenses either. Which means the primary wolf strategy here would be to ignore/nullread each other. Since your interaction with Xiao slots right into that theory, hopefully my suspicion makes a bit more sense. (although Gadd seems to disagree, hopefully I'll have time to get to his response)
If you're saying that you think I'm Xiao's partner because of what I said, I can (kinda) see where you're coming from.
However, I am not a wolf, because that's just the way it is. But wolf A#m definitely wouldn't be trying any crazy strategies right now, besides the fact that we can't pick who to wolf if we haven't been talking.
(By the way, I'll most likely be up until like 3am central to discuss)
Ninja'd by TZP
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 07:34:49 PMQuote from: A# Minor on August 06, 2023, 08:55:41 AMshahkvnsma :D :D :D :D
jsk. Woosk akska skk
nice
glad you like my phone going nuts (and apparently being super happy too)
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 07:34:49 PM^this is absolutely right, I always think these games aren't going to take much attention but then there's one random day where I spend three hours staring at the player list, willing it to make sense lol
That's what happened when I tried to make my suspicion list XD
First things first: the 36 wolfing. This caught me way off guard. I've had more than one of you tell me that you each thought you were next on the chopping block. To be honest I have absolutely no clue what to make of them, in part because I really thought the same thing about myself. E. Gadd made an absolute
meal in my PMs saying that if he died night 2 that at least 2 people were going straight for my lynch the next day. It struck me as ostentatious and ingenuine to a degree that I felt like I was being set up.
A# also was expressing suspicion to me of E. Gadd, specifically because of the case E. Gadd was making about the two of us being weirdly synchronized in our comments on the BDS wolfing (no one has to believe this if they don't want to, but A# will confirm if you ask her)
Then I got this from Kaiveran late in the night phase, right the hell out of nowhere:
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 04, 2023, 07:54:51 PMIf I die tonight, I urge you to take a long, hard look at E.Gadd.
If Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth, 3 different people thought they were on the chopping block night 2. But it's not possible that Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth (not unless Xiao and A# are wolves togetehr , which is close to an impossibility in my mind). And given what A# and I had discussed I was at least a little more inclined to trust Kai over E. Gadd. So I was 100% ready to push for an E. Gadd lynch today if I survived. And then 36 died.
Wolfing 36 is literally the polar opposite end of the spectrum from wolfing BDS. Because 36 was so laconic with his posts, there's comparatively not much information at all to be gleaned from his wolfing--he didn't really array himself either with or against anybody. So right now I'd like to hear from both E. Gadd and Kai exactly what it was they were talking about in PMs that made Kai so concerned about getting wolfed, because I was very surprised to see 36's obituary in the day update, and I'm wondering if someone made a last-second switch in wolfing target.
Xiao, if you're suspicious of me for another reason, let's talk about it, but I really want to put to bed whatever suspicion you have of me for leading the charge on Olimar on the first day. Someone has to be the first person lynched--that's how the game is played. Also, NSM has literally not had a TWG run for five years or something like that, and I thought there was definitely a possibility that people just stand around on Day 1 without saying anything substantive. E. Gadd and A# were saying things like "people should talk more!" and I agreed, so I got the ball rolling. My initial accusation of him was, as you say, weak, because I wanted to see what would happen if I threw him in the hot seat. I have been on the forum with Olimar for literally over a decade and knew he wasn't going to take it lying down, and I wanted some conversation to get going. Then later in the day phase, I felt much better about it (E. Gadd and I discussed this in PMs, please back me up on this) because of the lack of traction it had and also because of that weird thing he said about E. Gadd being a "safe pass". It was a mislynch, but that is such a common Day 1 occurrence I really don't see how you can say that's wolfy behavior. As E. Gadd pointed out, I was also not the only one who was suspicious of him. It really wasn't that much of an aggressive way to start, but even if it had been, that is still not necessarily wolfish.
No one has voted yet, and I think most of us sleep before the deadline and the phase rollover. So things aren't looking too hot. I'm still not going to vote until I hear from Kai and E. Gadd about that dead man's hand weirdness over PM just in case I get it wrong and trigger a wolf rush, so I'll be up in the morning before the start of night 3, I suppose. Right now the only person I feel pretty confident in the humanity of is A#, who seems to just genuinely be figuring the game out. Of the other three of you, I'm really not sure, and I'm not confident that we'll be able to figure it out if no one's here, so gg I guess.
Hey, I'm here, just let me get in bed and we can chat
what is your lean, A#? Please do not actually vote yet
I assume you're asking me who I suspect the most? (Sorry, I'm not very familiar with the TWG lingo.)
Oh yeah, for some reason I forgot about the 36-1 wolfing, thanks for bringing that up in your post. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they put names into a random name picker and wolfed the result. Which is something I could only see Xiao doing (not the name picker, wolfing a mostly inactive person). I'm leaning more on Kaiveran being their companion, but I haven't seen anything that'll make me clear you yet, so you and Xiao as wolves can still be possible. (RIP A#m's inner grammar nazi)
Also I'm not voting until I'm about to go to sleep (2-3 am central, maybe?)
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 07:34:49 PMWhat irl versions have you played?
The game is just called 'werewolfing' lol
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 08:16:42 PMXiao, if you're suspicious of me for another reason, let's talk about it, but I really want to put to bed whatever suspicion you have of me for leading the charge on Olimar on the first day.
Nah thats the main reason really, it just made you seem most fishy compared to everyone else
What makes you doubt A# being a wolf? Because to me the most likely pairing is them and E Gadd
Either way, if I can trust you, it seems we both are leaning towards E Gadd being one? I need to hear more from Kaiveran before I can come to any conclusions though.
Quote from: A# Minor on August 06, 2023, 10:22:43 PMOh yeah, for some reason I forgot about the 36-1 wolfing, thanks for bringing that up in your post. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they put names into a random name picker and wolfed the result. Which is something I could only see Xiao doing
This is a really odd thing to say. What makes you think that only I could pick a certain person to wolf?
Baseless accusations against me just make me doubt you more than I do already. Only issue is, at least 2 other people seem to trust you...
but i really dont see why
Hi I'm here, reading over things and then will respond. I just had like 10 people over at my apartment for my birthday party, was great :D
As I'm going, TZP, could you be a bit more specific about what you're wanting from me? I'm confused. Are you wanting to know the PMs I had with Kaiveran? Or am I misunderstanding?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 10:52:23 PMThis is a really odd thing to say. What makes you think that only I could pick a certain person to wolf?
Baseless accusations against me just make me doubt you more than I do already. Only issue is, at least 2 other people seem to trust you... but i really dont see why
Quote from: A# Minor on August 06, 2023, 07:39:47 PMI am not a wolf, because that's just the way it is.
I don't see how this is baseless. I mean, I'd pick someone random if I was a wolf too, so I'd think you would do something similar.
Why does the post button have to be right next to the preview button??
Quote from: A# Minor on August 06, 2023, 10:57:26 PMI mean, I'd pick someone random if I was a wolf too
literally anyone could do that though
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 08:06:27 PMFirst things first: the 36 wolfing. This caught me way off guard. I've had more than one of you tell me that you each thought you were next on the chopping block. To be honest I have absolutely no clue what to make of them, in part because I really thought the same thing about myself. E. Gadd made an absolute meal in my PMs saying that if he died night 2 that at least 2 people were going straight for my lynch the next day. It struck me as ostentatious and ingenuine to a degree that I felt like I was being set up.
A# also was expressing suspicion to me of E. Gadd, specifically because of the case E. Gadd was making about the two of us being weirdly synchronized in our comments on the BDS wolfing (no one has to believe this if they don't want to, but A# will confirm if you ask her)
For now I'm going to respond piecewise until I get confirmation from TZP on what he's wanting me to address.
So for this chunk, I did indeed go for you, but as I said before (or at least, I think I mentioned it somewhere in this game thread), I was doing that to soft-accuse you to see how you'd respond. I did something similar to A#, but with her I was more direct in my accusation. I'm still not fully convinced of your humanity, but at the same time, I don't think you're nearly as suspicious as Xiao. So, I suppose you could say it was "disingenuous", but it was done in the interests of trying to get a better read of you. I didn't ever end up telling anyone to go for you D2 should I die N2, but I did send that PM to 36 that I posted earlier about having two specific suspicions (though I didn't specify who to him).
I am also willing to confirm my early suspicion of you both from PMs due to the synchronization of your responses to my question, for what that's worth.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 08:06:27 PMThen I got this from Kaiveran late in the night phase, right the hell out of nowhere:
Oh now that's curious. When was that message sent? Because late N2, I
also got a PM from Kaiveran saying (among many things) that I am the one they have the strongest town read on. Hang on and I'll grab it (I would combine it if I was on PC but alas... mobile is so much more difficult :') )
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 11:02:32 PMliterally anyone could do that though
I know that, I'm trying to say that it sounds like a pretty silly move. What exactly would you gain by wolfing an inactive player? Oh yeah, nothing. It's hard for me to see anyone else doing something like that
my sharpness seems to be showing itself
Actually it makes perfect sense for a wolf to do that at this point^ get an inactive player and it contributes exactly nothing to the remaining players' knowledge, and with everyone at each other's throats, the wolves have us right where they want us, praying we don't see through it.
Also, I forgot that quotes also have a timestamp, so we'll be able to see timestamps in Kaiveran's PM to me vs to TZP about suspecting me. One moment...
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 04, 2023, 07:53:42 PMWell, this sucks. I was hoping to get here much earlier than I did, and now I might not get a response from you at all before the Night is out.
But since wasting any more time is unwise, let me lay out what exactly my plan was for this game.
Basically, since I wasn't feeling that the PM system here was of good use for solving people out from zero knowledge like IM was, I figured it would be a better idea to let examination of the publicly provided info on Day 1 determine my town candidates, and then use PMs to try to put heads together with one of them to solve the game. And since you're the person I feel most confident in this game, that's you.
Of course, this runs the risk of backfiring hard if you're a wolf, but given your D1 I'm pretty confident in the odds there. If the gamble still comes up snake eyes, welp, 'tis only a game.
But in the interest of making that game as sporting a contest as possible: I wanna know where your head is at with regard to the possible wolf pairs here.
Over time and experienced gained in other scenes, I've developed a kind of RPS interpretation of interactions (https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/User:Kaiveran#The_RPS) that I've found useful for getting to the meat of things, but if you have any alternative methods, I'd like to hear about them. This game being a Lemmy's Last Sheet nostalgia trip, with the general habits and attitudes formed from the normally flipless and OC format, I believe the wolves are either Ignoring or Defending each other by default. I haven't seen any responses to pressure that have led anyone to go on the Attack (outside of Olimar, who is obviously not a wolf now) but maybe you've picked up on something I've missed?
While we're on the subject: Olimar flipping town makes me feel slightly better about 36. But again, I haven't been able to review the game with the detail I think an impending LyLo deserves, and I might not be able to with all I've got on my plate. Myself, I wanna at least focus in on Xiao's interactions toNight, because I feel like we've basically been ships passing in the night all game – my cruise-senses are tingling. ;D
Here's Kaiveran's PM to me. Let's see how the times look...
Assuming that I'm reading correctly, it appears that Kaiveran would've sent their PM to TZP very shortly after me. I suppose they thought they were poking the beast by PMing me and were lying to my face from the start?
Quote from: A# Minor on August 06, 2023, 11:10:12 PMI know that, I'm trying to say that it sounds like a pretty silly move. What exactly would you gain by wolfing an inactive player? Oh yeah, nothing. It's hard for me to see anyone else doing something like that
Man I love how everyone this game has been so respectful towards me...
It seems like Kaiveran has been playing an interesting game here, I'm curious as to how they will explain it
You and me both^
^ Thirded...? (I can't say seconded)
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 08:06:27 PMIf Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth, 3 different people thought they were on the chopping block night 2. But it's not possible that Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth (not unless Xiao and A# are wolves togetehr , which is close to an impossibility in my mind). And given what A# and I had discussed I was at least a little more inclined to trust Kai over E. Gadd. So I was 100% ready to push for an E. Gadd lynch today if I survived. And then 36 died.
Wolfing 36 is literally the polar opposite end of the spectrum from wolfing BDS. Because 36 was so laconic with his posts, there's comparatively not much information at all to be gleaned from his wolfing--he didn't really array himself either with or against anybody. So right now I'd like to hear from both E. Gadd and Kai exactly what it was they were talking about in PMs that made Kai so concerned about getting wolfed, because I was very surprised to see 36's obituary in the day update, and I'm wondering if someone made a last-second switch in wolfing target.
Ah, so then you are interested in the PMs? Let me grab my response, one sec
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 05, 2023, 12:07:46 AMHey hey! I wanted to message you, too, but then got swept up in birthday shenanigans and a Barbienheimer trip that ate up my entire afternoon and evening.
I agree that figuring out a game plan is good. We have to have some kind of planning, so this will be instrumental in town success. So here are my thoughts:
Firstly, I'm now as fully convinced as I can be of A#'s humanity (it never really is a certainty until the card flips) compared to when the game started and D1 got going in full swing.
Now, I'm not as convinced of TZP's innocence. I don't lean suspicious of him as strongly as I did, but in the absence of any better candidates, I could see a case for him.
The BIGGEST suspicion I have is Xiao at the moment, because the level of effort is not matching the level of experience they claim to have. Everything has been half-hearted, generally disengaged, and regardless of what role they have, they aren't playing in any way that helps the town.
So then the question becomes, who is Xiao's partner? I agree that there doesn't seem to be any attacking, following your guide. But I also don't even really see any Defending. If Xiao is indeed a wolf, the strategy the wolves have come up with has to 100% be Ignoring. Given that this is 36's first game whatsoever, I could see a careful wolf pairing with a not-caring whatsoever wolf. But I'm inclined to agree that I imagine his agreeing with Olimar D1 wasn't an overtly wolfy thing. I read it as an attempt at eliminating possibilities for a D1 lynch to maximize chances of hitting a wolf. There hasn't been a ton of interaction, though, between Xiao and 36. Granted, there hasn't been a ton of interaction with Xiao and anyone, but that brings up the other possible pairing that I didn't think about until I just now reviewed the game thread:
Xiao and TZP have had fairly interesting interactions, where Xiao will make a (half-hearted) point and TZP would respond with slight push-back, but nothing too substantial. And then Xiao tried to vote for TZP at the start of the night phase, citing "weird vibes" as their main suspicion of him. That... just no. I think that's our strongest bet for wolf pair at the moment, and from that, I believe Xiao would be the better of the two for a D2 lynch since there's basically already a case against them. We could also effectively force TZP's hand and really see what he has to say (if anything, he seems to be trying at least somewhat to distance himself without making it obvious).
Regarding your last comment, it seems you and I are of the same mindset. Any interaction attempted with Xiao would be good, because they are resisting it the most. Whether or not they'll respond is another story entirely... but I hesitate to call them out quite yet before the N2 ends because I don't want to increase my chances of "getting got" so to speak.
...although idk, being direct and then being offed would look might suspicious on Xiao's part, and/or if they aren't a wolf, the wolves could still target me to make Xiao look suspicious. Layers upon layers :')
At this point, it's late, so I'm probably gonna send this PM and log out for the night and will technically be around some 30 mins after phase change, but I won't be able to respond to anything of substance, just seeing the result. But if we both survive the night, orchestrated efforts on getting Xiao to talk will be invaluable.
Commentary to follow
So in this PM, I was very thrown off by the random message toward the end of N2 from a person I was suspicious of, and so while it did seem somewhat town, I knew this could be a wolf play so I just threw suspicion at TZP being paired with Xiao with enough effort to make it... how do I word this? Basically, I was still suspicious of Kaiveran, so I didn't want to put in no effort and make it clear that I suspected them, thus increasing my chances of getting wolfed that night. I also PM'd A# when I read their message, talking about how weird it is (and I can provide PM receipts for that as well if you wish). It seems to me like Kaiveran and I were mutually suspicious of each other and wanted to ensure that someone would investigate the other should we end up dead the next day.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 08:16:42 PMXiao, if you're suspicious of me for another reason, let's talk about it, but I really want to put to bed whatever suspicion you have of me for leading the charge on Olimar on the first day. Someone has to be the first person lynched--that's how the game is played. Also, NSM has literally not had a TWG run for five years or something like that, and I thought there was definitely a possibility that people just stand around on Day 1 without saying anything substantive. E. Gadd and A# were saying things like "people should talk more!" and I agreed, so I got the ball rolling. My initial accusation of him was, as you say, weak, because I wanted to see what would happen if I threw him in the hot seat. I have been on the forum with Olimar for literally over a decade and knew he wasn't going to take it lying down, and I wanted some conversation to get going. Then later in the day phase, I felt much better about it (E. Gadd and I discussed this in PMs, please back me up on this) because of the lack of traction it had and also because of that weird thing he said about E. Gadd being a "safe pass". It was a mislynch, but that is such a common Day 1 occurrence I really don't see how you can say that's wolfy behavior. As E. Gadd pointed out, I was also not the only one who was suspicious of him. It really wasn't that much of an aggressive way to start, but even if it had been, that is still not necessarily wolfish.
Agree with all of this, even more convinced now that it's Xiao and Kaiveran. Even Kaiveran themselves said they didn't interact much with Xiao and that they've been "ships passing in the night".
But yes, I can back you up on your statement about your general thoughts on Olimar as the day phase progressed. Although, with the amount of suspicion I'm getting, I'm not sure how much that helps your case :/ but, everything you describe is exactly how it happened, if at least in what you told me in PMs
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 09:24:11 PMNo one has voted yet, and I think most of us sleep before the deadline and the phase rollover. So things aren't looking too hot. I'm still not going to vote until I hear from Kai and E. Gadd about that dead man's hand weirdness over PM just in case I get it wrong and trigger a wolf rush, so I'll be up in the morning before the start of night 3, I suppose. Right now the only person I feel pretty confident in the humanity of is A#, who seems to just genuinely be figuring the game out. Of the other three of you, I'm really not sure, and I'm not confident that we'll be able to figure it out if no one's here, so gg I guess.
Well, it seems as though you won't be back until before phase change. Sorry for the spam :') but, to make sure there's time to discuss things before phase change, I'll be up (against my better judgement, seeing as I'm in Pacific time) an hour before phase change. Hopefully we'll have time to pick through things of need be, and hopefully I responded to what you wanted me to respond to with the information you were seeking. It'd make the discussion a lot easier with an hour before phase change.
Ugh, that just makes things more difficult with voting. Not a good situation all around, def an inopportune phase change time, but I do get the pain of work schedules for THC and so there's nothing to be done about it.
What about TZP and Kaiveran? I wonder if TZP is latching on to A# being human to gain your trust or something, idk
It's a possibility that I've considered. But
quote author=E. Gadd Industries link=topic=12724.msg434702#msg434702 date=1691390092]
Agree with all of this, even more convinced now that it's Xiao and Kaiveran. Even Kaiveran themselves said they didn't interact much with Xiao and that they've been "ships passing in the night".
But yes, I can back you up on your statement about your general thoughts on Olimar as the day phase progressed. Although, with the amount of suspicion I'm getting, I'm not sure how much that helps your case :/ but, everything you describe is exactly how it happened, if at least in what you told me in PMs
[/quote]
This post (er, the one I'm responding to here) seems genuine. And all of it checks out from my PM history with him. It's not even about how he views A#'s role at this point, because you're right in that he could be doing that as a wolf to gain my trust.
fuck me
had to stay late because of an issue at work, and subsequently was late to transition the game I'm hosting.
i'm feeling very draggy but I would feel like a failure at life if I didn't catch up and do something resembling an analysis, so here I go.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 07, 2023, 12:05:08 AMThis post (er, the one I'm responding to here) seems genuine. And all of it checks out from my PM history with him. It's not even about how he views A#'s role at this point, because you're right in that he could be doing that as a wolf to gain my trust.
But all that post is doing is explaining why he's not a wolf because of the Olimar thing? I don't see why this specifically would make him trustworthy. Would you mind elaborating?
I can try my best but im running on fumes (which is awful timing seeing as Kaiveran just got on)
Basically, his reasoning for all of that makes sense to me. He was encouraging activity from the start, and while you and I have differing beliefs about the relative importance of activity, I believe it is objectively good for town for any activity to happen. Obviously, with D1 there isn't going to be a ton of grounds for any solid-read lynch votes, which leads to people grasping at straws (as you saw with me against A# and TZP for coinciding in their thought process about BDS's death). It's just that TZP took it one step further to actually formally accuse/vote on someone. I've seen that strategy before from a town, and it's worked exactly as TZP described by putting someone "in the hot seat", and the fact that he specifically went for someone he knew would respond (thus encouraging more activity) is, again, something that can only help town. Yes, it led to a mislynch, but we've gotten significantly more information and discussion that night not otherwise have happened had TZP not made that early first move. And he's also right that D1 lynch is very often a mislynch; I'd actually be curious to see the stats breakdown, but I'd be willing to bet that it happens more often than not that D1 ends in a mislynch. His fears also of people not saying anything are very founded regarding the very long TWG dry spell here; I was worried about that myself, hence I tried drumming up conversation as much as possible.
Hopefully that gives some insight into my thought process. I hope Kaiveran doesn't take too much longer bc I'm actively shutting down :')
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 06, 2023, 11:18:39 PMMan I love how everyone this game has been so respectful towards me...
While I don't believe anyone had been intending hostility or disrespect, I would be remiss as host to not address this.
When writing a message, regardless of how tired or drained you may be, I implore that you reread what you write before you send and think how what you've said might be taken by someone. Some people (such as myself) have a lot of trouble with subtext, often missing it or adding it where there is none. As someone who has consistently been on both the giving and receiving end of such affairs, I can say with certainty that no party is happy when it happens. So I just ask that you try and be mindful of your words. We're here to have fun, and it's all of our duties to make sure everyone gets to have fun. Thank you for reading.Alright, back to the box seats I go. If there's an insta while I'm still at work, I won't be able to make the post until I'm home, but all votes
will be final at that point.
(Replying to E Gadd)
That is all understandable, but as an experienced player I'm sure they would do so regardless of whether they are town or wolf. Fitting your vision of good play would be a necessity for any side, right? So again, this doesn't seem like enough evidence to make them trustworthy, at least not in my eyes.
Ahh, I see the (fox)cat is out of the bag here.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 06, 2023, 08:06:27 PMFirst things first: the 36 wolfing. This caught me way off guard. I've had more than one of you tell me that you each thought you were next on the chopping block. To be honest I have absolutely no clue what to make of them, in part because I really thought the same thing about myself. E. Gadd made an absolute meal in my PMs saying that if he died night 2 that at least 2 people were going straight for my lynch the next day (1). It struck me as ostentatious and ingenuine to a degree that I felt like I was being set up.
A# also was expressing suspicion to me of E. Gadd, specifically because of the case E. Gadd was making about the two of us being weirdly synchronized in our comments on the BDS wolfing (no one has to believe this if they don't want to, but A# will confirm if you ask her)
Then I got this from Kaiveran late in the night phase, right the hell out of nowhere:[my deadhanding PM](2)
If Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth, 3 different people thought they were on the chopping block night 2. But it's not possible that Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth (not unless Xiao and A# are wolves togetehr , which is close to an impossibility in my mind (3)). And given what A# and I had discussed I was at least a little more inclined to trust Kai over E. Gadd. So I was 100% ready to push for an E. Gadd lynch today if I survived. And then 36 died.
Wolfing 36 is literally the polar opposite end of the spectrum from wolfing BDS. Because 36 was so laconic with his posts, there's comparatively not much information at all to be gleaned from his wolfing--he didn't really array himself either with or against anybody. So right now I'd like to hear from both E. Gadd and Kai exactly what it was they were talking about in PMs that made Kai so concerned about getting wolfed (4), because I was very surprised to see 36's obituary in the day update, and I'm wondering if someone made a last-second switch in wolfing target.
First off,
WTF is going on in (1)? I hope these PMs are made public either by the current end of this thread, because this sounds like something that a townie doesn't do unless they really have dirt or they really wanna pressure a scumread for a straight answer.
(2) Yeah, I foreshadowed my own strategy in a post, what about it? Seriously though, I really wanted to get back to basics as this is the first OC game I've played in literal years, and with me wanting to hash things out with Gadd but simultaneously not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket, I figured this was the perfect opportunity to put that old trick to work.
As for the nature of this publicization, I kinda want to lean it town because any wolf worth their salt would subsequently kill me and have the perfect alibi to go after E. Gadd for the win D2– or, if they didn't think they had the rhetorical skills to take him on, just keep it tucked in DMs and pocket me into voting for their pet mislynch. Then again sitting on it this long into a potential F5 kinda bugs me. Point 4 will answer a bit more.
(3) Again, I'm really not seeing what's so impossible about a Xiao/A# pairing. I think this should be quite obvious from what little I've posted this phase previously, but please do field any questions if you're still around.
(4) Well, deadhanding isn't exactly "OMG I'm so scared I'm gonna get wolfed!" It's really just a hedged bet. Gadd was truly my top townread, but as always, I know that top townread can sometimes be wrong, and I feel doubly obligated to consider that possibility when we
have to axe a wolf this phase to win. His response had nothing to do with it – if both of y'all check timestamps I'm pretty sure I sent the deadhand
before Gadd replied to me. I just gave myself a little lifeline, a "just-in-case" so that if I did get screwed by wolf!Gadd, it woudn't go totally unanswered for. It's a neat thing that OC lets you do and damn if I won't take advantage of it.
Okay, with the timing and everybody coinking out, this obviously isn't gonna work.
So let's make this real simple.Vote: XiaoPractically nobody thinks he's town, so he's probably just a wolf.
E.Gadd, this is suicide if I'm Xiao's partner because you called out our BS for all to see and killing you won't put it away.Let's do it and argue another Day.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 12:30:28 AM(Replying to E Gadd)
That is all understandable, but as an experienced player I'm sure they would do so regardless of whether they are town or wolf. Fitting your vision of good play would be a necessity for any side, right? So again, this doesn't seem like enough evidence to make them trustworthy, at least not in my eyes.
But you say that assuming that he's specifically targeting
my vision for good play. Not to mention, he was active about the same time I was iirc, so this isn't like a scenario where he escalates to match my level of activity.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 07, 2023, 12:34:59 AMBut you say that assuming that he's specifically targeting my vision for good play.
Not specifically your vision, just the general consensus here on how to get the game going
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 07, 2023, 12:31:07 AMAhh, I see the (fox)cat is out of the bag here.
First off, WTF is going on in (1)? I hope these PMs are made public either by the current end of this thread, because this sounds like something that a townie doesn't do unless they really have dirt or they really wanna pressure a scumread for a straight answer.
(2) Yeah, I foreshadowed my own strategy in a post, what about it? Seriously though, I really wanted to get back to basics as this is the first OC game I've played in literal years, and with me wanting to hash things out with Gadd but simultaneously not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket, I figured this was the perfect opportunity to put that old trick to work.
As for the nature of this publicization, I kinda want to lean it town because any wolf worth their salt would subsequently kill me and have the perfect alibi to go after E. Gadd for the win D2– or, if they didn't think they had the rhetorical skills to take him on, just keep it tucked in DMs and pocket me into voting for their pet mislynch. Then again sitting on it this long into a potential F5 kinda bugs me. Point 4 will answer a bit more.
(3) Again, I'm really not seeing what's so impossible about a Xiao/A# pairing. I think this should be quite obvious from what little I've posted this phase previously, but please do field any questions if you're still around.
(4) Well, deadhanding isn't exactly "OMG I'm so scared I'm gonna get wolfed!" It's really just a hedged bet. Gadd was truly my top townread, but as always, I know that top townread can sometimes be wrong, and I feel doubly obligated to consider that possibility when we have to axe a wolf this phase to win. His response had nothing to do with it – if both of y'all check timestamps I'm pretty sure I sent the deadhand before Gadd replied to me. I just gave myself a little lifeline, a "just-in-case" so that if I did get screwed by wolf!Gadd, it woudn't go totally unanswered for. It's a neat thing that OC lets you do and damn if I won't take advantage of it.
Not replying to all of your message (or the second one) because I need more brainpower to do so than what I'm currently running on. I did want to draw your attention to point 1 though. Underlined is your answer, and it is reiterated in one of my previous messages. Sorry for the sea of them, ik it's hard to get through. But my thinking gets more fragmented toward the night (irl night, not game)
I am curious about your vote, very interesting indeed. PMs with me aren't guaranteed private in any sense of the word and if it needs to be dragged out then so be it. If Xiao's wolf, then we have the time to really figure out who the other is.
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 07, 2023, 12:34:08 AMOkay, with the timing and everybody coinking out, this obviously isn't gonna work.
So let's make this real simple.Vote: XiaoPractically nobody thinks he's town, so he's probably just a wolf.
E.Gadd, this is suicide if I'm Xiao's partner because you called out our BS for all to see and killing you won't put it away.Let's do it and argue another Day.
I implore you to save your vote for a little longer, if you're town.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 12:38:40 AMNot specifically your vision, just the general consensus here on how to get the game going
Ah, gotcha. Will respond properly in the morning. T_T a little over 4 hours away, blech.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 12:40:54 AMI implore you to save your vote for a little longer, if you're town.
Unless that is your vote, in which case: great! i will have no choice but to vote for you
(Towards E.Gadd)
Yeah, it's a lot to dig through, but the volume alone I think is testament to you actually clutching it out. Sorry if I've been grating: my approach is no one is confirmed town until the host tells me so, and that can look a lot like unjustified FUD, but it's saved me plenty of times.
-
Meanwhile, I hear the sound of
no hammers getting dropped.
And everyone's posted recently too, from a quick look back.
In this gamestate, that means either the voter or the votee is a wolf.
and I'm not a wolf.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 12:42:19 AMUnless that is your vote, in which case: great! i will have no choice but to vote for you
It is.I even prefixed it so it would stand out amid the sea of bold.
and yes, I suppose you don't have a choice.
okey dokey, i vote kaiveran
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 07, 2023, 12:45:09 AMand I'm not a wolf.
well i guess that settles it then
this game is so over
???
fellow towns: please try to save your votes for as long as possible. if kaiveran is town, we have already lost. if kaiveran is a wolf, we can still win if we all vote for them
I'm still here but most definitely not going to stay up all the way to EoD.
A#, Zelda, Gadd, do you need anything else from me? Or anything you haven't put on the table that might contraindicate my vote?
I'll pore over the last couple pages again, but I'm honestly not confident enough in anyone else right now.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 12:56:21 AMfellow towns: please try to save your votes for as long as possible. if kaiveran is town, we have already lost. if kaiveran is a wolf, we can still win if we all vote for them
Sounds to me like you're a wolf who's trying to distract us because you're at risk of being lynched.
(Also, I'm sorry if I was a bit harsh earlier; I tend to get worked up for things like this.)
Now, I'm not saying I think Kaiveran is human, I just wanted to point that out
Quote from: A# Minor on August 07, 2023, 01:00:59 AMSounds to me like you're a wolf who's trying to distract us because you're at risk of being lynched.
Again, this argument isnt very well founded. If I was wolf, it would make sense for me to say what I did, if I was town, the same...
It seems to me you still have no tangible reason to suspect me. Maybe thats why you havent voted for me yet..?
Quote from: A# Minor on August 07, 2023, 01:02:25 AMNow, I'm not saying I think Kaiveran is human, I just wanted to point that out
join meee, vote for them
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 01:04:58 AMAgain, this argument isnt very well founded. If I was wolf, it would make sense for me to say what I did, if I was town, the same...
It seems to me you still have no tangible reason to suspect me. Maybe thats why you havent voted for me yet..?
No, I'm waiting to see what happens. I'll be up 2 hours before the phase end so I can make a final decision, but I do have my eyes on you
Might as well address previously voiced concerns while I'm here:
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 06, 2023, 11:16:44 PMAssuming that I'm reading correctly, it appears that Kaiveran would've sent their PM to TZP very shortly after me. I suppose they thought they were poking the beast by PMing me and were lying to my face from the start?
Like, even if the timing here is correct (contravening mine), I've already explained the purpose of the message and how it fits into my town approach. And where's the pro-wolf angle here? I know by putting that out there to a third party, they're probably gonna reveal it sooner or later. If wolf!Kai wanted to mislead you - the townie with the biggest mouth and the most pull - into voting wrong, I would be feeding you bullshit reads of
other players, not yourself. If I didn't have any ideas and just wanted to abuse and/or twist your private words for clout, I would have just killed you N2 so would no longer be here to reveal the trickery.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 06, 2023, 11:31:13 PMSo in this PM, I was very thrown off by the random message toward the end of N2 from a person I was suspicious of, and so while it did seem somewhat town, I knew this could be a wolf play so I just threw suspicion at TZP being paired with Xiao with enough effort to make it... how do I word this? Basically, I was still suspicious of Kaiveran, so I didn't want to put in no effort and make it clear that I suspected them, thus increasing my chances of getting wolfed that night. I also PM'd A# when I read their message, talking about how weird it is (and I can provide PM receipts for that as well if you wish). It seems to me like Kaiveran and I were mutually suspicious of each other and wanted to ensure that someone would investigate the other should we end up dead the next day.
Ahh, so your message had an element of subterfuge as well.
Can I just say that this is a
completely reasonable interaction between townies in this tradition who are unsure of each other? The degrees of uncertainty might be different between us, but the approach is the same. Send select bits of information, feel out the responses for potential signs of alignment, and proceed from there. It's not at all unusual...for us, anyways.
The more you reassure everyone that you're town, the more over the game is, regardless of whether you actually are
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 01:23:57 AMThe more you reassure everyone that you're town, the more over the game is, regardless of whether you actually are
I'm... I'm confused. I think I'm going to sleep now.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 07, 2023, 12:20:22 AMI can try my best but im running on fumes (which is awful timing seeing as Kaiveran just got on)
Basically, his reasoning for all of that makes sense to me. He was encouraging activity from the start, and while you and I have differing beliefs about the relative importance of activity, I believe it is objectively good for town for any activity to happen. Obviously, with D1 there isn't going to be a ton of grounds for any solid-read lynch votes, which leads to people grasping at straws (as you saw with me against A# and TZP for coinciding in their thought process about BDS's death). It's just that TZP took it one step further to actually formally accuse/vote on someone. I've seen that strategy before from a town, and it's worked exactly as TZP described by putting someone "in the hot seat", and the fact that he specifically went for someone he knew would respond (thus encouraging more activity) is, again, something that can only help town. Yes, it led to a mislynch, but we've gotten significantly more information and discussion that night not otherwise have happened had TZP not made that early first move. And he's also right that D1 lynch is very often a mislynch; I'd actually be curious to see the stats breakdown, but I'd be willing to bet that it happens more often than not that D1 ends in a mislynch. His fears also of people not saying anything are very founded regarding the very long TWG dry spell here; I was worried about that myself, hence I tried drumming up conversation as much as possible.
Hopefully that gives some insight into my thought process. I hope Kaiveran doesn't take too much longer bc I'm actively shutting down :')
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 12:30:28 AM(Replying to E Gadd)
That is all understandable, but as an experienced player I'm sure they would do so regardless of whether they are town or wolf. Fitting your vision of good play would be a necessity for any side, right? So again, this doesn't seem like enough evidence to make them trustworthy, at least not in my eyes.
This is a bit of a pickle, actually. While Gadd's reasoning for town!TZP is sound and aligns with my early impressions – and as an aside, it should be pretty clear now why I chose TZP to hedge my bets on and why I've been thinking wolves are Xiao/A#.
But it gets
really whyfoamy when you consider the creeping pressure that Xiao has been under basically all Day....Xiao actually makes some points here, and wolf!Xiao might actually have decided that telling the truth about wolf!TZP might have been the right side of the coin to go on, to give him towncred on the way out.
And while wolf!A# wouldn't be able to arraigne a hammer in this situation, the patience and lack of casing or pushing here gives me pause, because why would she not try to secure the best option for her unless she was
legitimately unsure what that option was?
All that I can say for certain is that I will give my all to figuring out the best partner toNight. No stone unturned.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 01:23:57 AMThe more you reassure everyone that you're town, the more over the game is, regardless of whether you actually are
Nah, bro.
The only way both of us are town at this point is if the wolf team is
exactly A# and TZP, and TZP isn't responding to her harried PMs to help wolf rush.
That's literally the only situation that would make sense. And I haven't seen it from you.
Quote from: A# Minor on August 07, 2023, 01:29:14 AMI'm... I'm confused. I think I'm going to sleep now.
If you are still awake and/or make it back before deadline, and are town,
please just vote for Xiao.
He(?) gave up the ghost in this post AFAIC. He was all about a me/TZP team for most of toDay, then I vote for himand there's no wolf rush,
which should confirm that I'm a wolf to town!Xiao without any doubt. But somehow he's
still holding out "hope" for me being town, despite it necessitating a you/TZP team that, if I recall correctly, he never tried to solve for.
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 07, 2023, 01:43:38 AMHe was all about a me/TZP team for most of toDay, then I vote for himand there's no wolf rush, which should confirm that I'm a wolf to town!Xiao without any doubt.
tbh im just waiting for everyone to come online, its like early morning hours for americans rn lets not forget
besides, if youre wolf, thats only one vote for me so far, theres 2 wolves, and you need 3 wolves. only if youre town will there be a wolf rush on town!me
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 07, 2023, 01:43:38 AMIf you are still awake and/or make it back before deadline, and are town, please just vote for Xiao.
No worries, I'm waking up 2 hours before phase change (yay for only 2 hours of sleep)
Seriously.
Both A# Minor and E. Gadd were active and posting while Xiao and I were crossvoting, and didn't wolfrush. So it's not Gadd/A#. The only missing person here is Zelda.
With all that's just happened, the only reasonable answers to me are Xiao/A# or Xiao/TZP.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 01:47:37 AMtbh im just waiting for everyone to come online, its like early morning hours for americans rn lets not forget
besides, if youre wolf, thats only one vote for me so far, theres 2 wolves, and you need 3 wolves. only if youre town will there be a wolf rush on town!me
If you are town, the
only plausible wolf team here is A#/TZP given the activity record. Which you are
still loath to mention for some reason.
If you (or Gadd, for that matter) can put together a absolute slam-dunk case on why that team is exactly the team in the next hour or so, and vote for one of them, I will follow that vote. Otherwise, this is what my tired fluffy butt is sticking to.
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 07, 2023, 01:59:11 AMIf you are town, the only plausible wolf team here is A#/TZP given the activity record. Which you are still loath to mention for some reason.
I think it's either you and tzp, or a# and tzp. leaning towards latter if you are serious on reconsidering your vote
as for my case, if there's anything you want to know from me please say
but tbh im waiting until zelda is confirmed online to see how they react to everything
Ffffffffffffff
Had something to eat and then dozed off on the couch....only woke up because I set a reminder timer to AM instead of PM
anyone there?
yup, hi
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 02:10:41 AMbut tbh im waiting until zelda is confirmed online to see how they react to everything
With less than 15 minutes left in the Day now I don't think we're going to get anything else from Zelda today.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 02:09:25 AMas for my case, if there's anything you want to know from me please say
I don't think I'll get what I asked for in that timeframe either, or even get a response from you or anyone else.
But if you
are here...know that I am very uncomfortable leaving our fate up to the luck of the draw.
If we're both town, we lose.If we're
not both town and the coin flip goes the wrong way, we lose.
Since we both seem to converge on A# being a wolf, and given that the possibility has been entertained by others that I have more trust in (plus the activity concerns earlier), I'd be up to move there with you and close out this Day with some dignity.
P-EDIT:
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 03:44:18 AMyup, hi
Vote: A#For great justice?
Deal. Vote: A#
She's in two of the possible teams FMPOV just like you, but there's potential hard evidence there based on Zelda's absence.
And if I'm barking up the wrong tree, the person I'm badgering is more likely than me to see the correct answer. It's like the Monty Hall problem of Mafia.
And of course, it's better than leaving it to a roll of the dice. We're TWG players. We should do better.
Sorr if I talked myself out of the correct vote town.
Let's just hope its not e gadd and zelda...
But yes, very icky situation
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 07, 2023, 03:50:44 AMWith less than 15 minutes left in the Day now
You posted this 4 hours before phase change
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 03:56:37 AMLet's just hope its not e gadd and zelda...
But yes, very icky situation
That would be the heist of the decade.
If only we had modbot that could support multiple hosts and not lock phase times to one schedule.
That reminds me, I should really see about getting us a partner forum on MU sometime...if that's okay with the staff here of course.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 07, 2023, 03:58:19 AMYou posted this 4 hours before phase change
Oh really? What happened to 7am est?
We might hear back from some people yet.
Quote from: Kaiveran on August 07, 2023, 04:03:00 AMWhat happened to 7am est?
It was never 7am EST, it's been 9am every time
isnt that in 2 hours then though
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 07, 2023, 03:58:19 AMYou posted this 4 hours before phase change
So this was a typo right
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 07, 2023, 04:06:37 AMIt was never 7am EST, it's been 9am every time
let this be a testament to how I really, really need some actual sleep now. I gotta be somewhere at around 1PM my time.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 07, 2023, 04:08:45 AMSo this was a typo right
I'll be honest, I looked at the quoted timestamp in the post, not the time of the post
ah i see haha
no problem, i just wanted to check :)
I think that I vote A# Minor
Interesting. Mind to explain your reasoning?
I like winning
fair enough
Insta!Welp, gg fam. Full post coming once I get on my computer at home.
I can delete this if I'm not supposed to send anything after game end (can't remember what the tradition is) buuuut while I hate losing, the relief I have that I can go back to sleep is immense. G'night, all. I'll give more and better thoughts in the post-game thread when I'm more lucid.
Gg to woof team
welp, i tried
twg cxiv: nothing special 2: electric boogaloo2 wolves, 6 humans. the wolves kill one player per night via pm and everybody votes on lynches during the day. this game has cardflips. pms are allowed, just makes sure to include the host in all game-related pms. this game is forum-only.
roles
1. wolf
2. wolf
3. human
4. human
5. human
6. human
7. human
8. human
players
1. BlackDragonSlayer
2. World 36-13. E. Gadd
4. A# Minor5. TheZeldaPianist
6. Kaiveran
7. Xiao
8. Olimar12345role pms
you're a wolf. your partner is ______. try to kill humans.
you're a human. try to hunt some wolves.