TWG CXV: Just a Numbers GameTo some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.
Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.
Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher
Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.
Host Clarifications:
- The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
- The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
- The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
- An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
- An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
- The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
- The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
- The game does not have cardflips.
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Players:
1. A# Minor
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. Olimar12345
4. E. Gadd Industries
5. ThatHiddenCharacter
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. magnet
9. Toby
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It is now Night 1. Night 1 ends in two days, on Saturday, August 19 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).
Roles PMs:
Head Honcho
You are the Head Honcho. The dull monotony of office work has driven you to the edge. Now, you are the one in control here. Every night, you must pick a number between 0 and 100 (inclusive). Whoever picks the number closest to your picked number shall perish.
Number Cruncher
You are a Number Cruncher. Every night, you must pick a number between 0 and 100 (inclusive) and hope that it is not the number picked for the wolfing... every day, you must try and hunt down the madman responsible for this madness.
The Phantom Number Swapper
You are The Phantom Number Swapper. An agent of chaos in this twisted game, the only hope you have is to try and achieve the secret objective laid out for you. Every night, in addition to picking your own number between 0 and 100 (inclusive), you may also pick one person and choose a new number for them.
Night 1 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435111#msg435111)
Day 1 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435273#msg435273)
Night 2 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435498#msg435498)
Day 2 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435572#msg435572)
Night 3 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435694#msg435694)
Day 3 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435723#msg435723)
Night 4 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435784#msg435784)
Day 4 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435825#msg435825)
Finale (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435990#msg435990)
Night 1 Story
You slowly begin to open your eyes. Your head hurts and your vision is blurry. What... what happened last night? As you try to recollect recent events, nothing comes to mind. Last you were aware, you were sleeping in bed peacefully. Now suddenly, you are trapped in a dark room, bound to a heavy, unmovable chair. Your legs and neck are both bound tight, preventing you from moving at all, and both of your arms are tied to the arms of the chair. By one of your hands, there seems to be... a screen of some sort?
You try moving your head, but you can just barely do so. Out of the very corner of your vision, you think you see somebody else to your right, and another person to your left, in the same predicament as you. If you had to guess, you'd say there's likely to be more people, all tied to chairs facing away from each other in a circle.
"Hey!" you shout, trying to get somebody else's attention, "What the hell is going on here?!"
"I don't know! I just woke up!!!" another voice chimes in from directly behind you.
"I'm scared..." a weak voice adds. Someone off to your right, it seems...
Suddenly, a booming voice fills the room from the sound system all around.
"SO, I SUPPOSE YOU'RE WONDERING WHY YOU'RE ALL GATHERED HERE TODAY..."
Day 1 Story
By now, everyone had introduced themselves as best they could given the circumstances. From what you could tell, it seemed as if all of you had worked at the same company, which was rather strange, as you had never met any of them before today—to be fair, it was a rather large company.
The room was tense, but as far as you could tell, everyone was in agreement that all you could do under these circumstances was follow the instructions of this strange person calling themselves the Head Honcho. After all, you didn't have much of a choice. It was clear that either way, someone in the room would be meeting an unfortunate fate. So you input your number of choice, and waited...
The control panel by your side suddenly started lighting up and beeping; from the noise that filled the room, you could tell all the other panels were doing the same. Then, just as quickly, the lights and noise stopped, and were replaced by a horrid beeping from a panel to your left.
"LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A LUCKY WINNER!!!" the voice boomed over the speakers.
Then, there was the sound of a set of doors opening, and a scream as someone plummeted to their doom.
...was that THC? It sure sounded like his voice.
"WITH A SPECTACULAR NUMBER OF 74, OUR GOOD FRIEND THATHIDDENCHARACTER HAS BEEN THE FIRST UNFORTUNATE VICTIM."
There was a pause. Someone let out a quiet "Oh God."
"AND NOW, WE MOVE ON TO THE SECOND PHASE OF OUR LITTLE GAME..."
Night 2 Story
From what the mysterious Head Honcho said, it was clear that they were sitting among the group, playing the game right alongside them. And the maniacal mastermind gave them one option to get out of this predicament: vote out one of their fellow players. If it was the Head Honcho, the so-called "game" would end then and there, and everyone could go free. If not... well, that person would meet the same fate as the last person had.
There was also supposedly a "wildcard player" hidden among them whose goal was to stir up as much chaos as possible. If that person succeeded in whatever objective the Head Honcho had set out for them, they would also get to go free, regardless of whatever happens in the game.
For some bizarre reason, several people had already tried to claim that they were this hidden wildcard player. Not sure what that's all about.
Whatever the reason may be, the time to vote out a player was drawing to a close. Now was the time for everyone to finalize their vote...
A sharp buzzer rang out. The voice of the mastermind came over the speakers once more.
"YOUR FIRST VICTIM IS E. GADD INDUSTRIES! LET IT NEVER BE FORGOTTEN THAT YOU DID THIS TO HIM."
"NO! NO! Please, no!!!" Gadd tried to protest, but to no avail.
"LET'S ALL SAY: GOODBYE E. GADD."
The trapdoor opened, and Gadd's screams filled the room momentarily.
"GOODBYE E. GADD."
Day 2 Story
Another round passed, and everyone had already submitted their numbers. This time, it was relatively quiet—you think that everyone else was too scared and shocked by the recent death to muster up much to say; you know you were. The idea that there was some sort of chance to get out of here... it made you hopeful yet nervous at the same time. What if the Head Honcho didn't honor the deal? What if you all died anyway?
These thoughts were torn out of your head by the horrid beeping: it was already time for "the big reveal."
The voice of the mastermind came over the speakers.
"I AM PROUD TO ANNOUNCE THAT, HAVING PICKED THE NUMBER 35, OUR NEXT LUCKY VICTIM IS—"
"NO! I'm too young to die!!!" That was A#'s voice, wasn't it?
"EXCUSE ME, I'M THE HOST HERE. YOU DO NOT INTERRUPT THE HOST."
"Oh yeah?" A# retorted, "and what are YOU gonna do about it?"
"THIS."
Suddenly, the doors under A#'s chair opened, and one last scream was heard.
"THANKS DIM—" her scream trailed off.
...you couldn't quite catch that last bit.
Night 3 Story
Tensions were at an all-time high. Several people had lost their cool and had devolved to yelling and shouting, desperately hoping that they could avoid the fate of being voted out by the others. As more and more people had suffered a grisly fate at the hands of this twisted ploy, the remaining participants had gotten even more bloodthirsty. It wasn't clear if they were even trying to find the Head Honcho at this point, or were just stalling to give themselves a bit of extra time.
Before you even realized it, time had run out—the voting period allotted was over. Your hands tightened into fists, both out of anger and from dread.
"Well, here we go," said someone to your left.
The voice of the Head Honcho once again filled the room. Was it louder now, or was it just that there were fewer people left to make noise of their own...?
"I AM PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE YOUR SPECIAL PICK OF THE DAY: OLIMAR12345!!!"
There was a distinct pause between the first sentence and the announcement of the name. Dramatic tension, you supposed.
In stark contrast to the previous times, there was not even a sound as the doors underneath Olimar's chair opened, sending him plummeting down into the unknown abyss below. Perhaps he had already resigned himself to his fate.
Day 3 Story
It was once again time for people to select their numbers. A few voices piped up in the room as the time passed, but unlike before, the conversation flew more toward random conversations than the situation at hand. Things... were much quieter than they had been before. It was only natural, of course, given the... absence of many of those who had been here before, but it unsettled you all the same.
Your opportunities for freedom were quickly running out. This whole time, you had been subtly testing your restraints, seeing if there was a way you could break them or slip out just enough to give you a better opportunity to escape, but it didn't seem that way. Most of this stuff looked fairly new and well put together. Regardless, you were almost certain that if the Head Honcho caught you trying to escape, it would be an immediate death before you got very far. An untimely escape, after all, was not part of the game rules.
Laughing boomed out over the speakers.
"I HATE TO INTERRUPT ALL THE FUN WE'RE HAVING, BUT IT'S THAT SPECIAL PART OF THE GAME WHEN IT'S TIME TO ANNOUNCE THE LUCKY NUMBER!"
Someone groaned. Not out of dread, mind you, but more out of annoyance.
"THAT'S RIGHT, WITH A NUMBER OF 54, TONIGHT'S LUCKY WINNER IS..."
A set of doors opened, accompanied by a brief yelp.
"HEY WAIT THAT WASN'T SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN. THAT WAS TOO EARLY."
There was an awkward pause.
"WELL, UH, ANYWAY... THAT LOVELY SCREAM YOU JUST HEARD WAS FROM MAGNET. NOW YOU KNOW, IT'S TIME TO GET VOTING!"
Night 4 Story
It was time to pick another person to vote out; but just after you had input your vote, the lights flickered briefly. They went out again, this time for several seconds before they came back on again.
"UM, WHAT JUST HAPPENED," the Head Honcho's voice seemed to reflect genuine confusion.
There was a long pause.
"EXCUSE ME, WE SEEM TO BE EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES. BECAUSE OF THAT, WE WILL BE MOVING STRAIGHT INTO THE NEXT NUMBER-PICKING SEGMENT."
There was another pause.
"PLEASE ENJOY WHATEVER EXTRA TIME YOU HAVE LEFT TO THE FULLEST. THANK YOU."
Day 4 Story
Your time was running out. That much you knew for certain.
You were still trying to find a way out of here without playing by the Head Honcho's rules. The strange power outage earlier gave you hope that you could find a way to replicate it—just to give you enough time to break free without the mysterious mastermind having access to any of the electrical systems. You had managed to get one of your leg restraints loose; you figure with a good, strong kick, it would definitely pop out.
Unfortunately, you wouldn't have such luck tonight.
"WELCOME BACK, MY BEAUTIFUL PEOPLE. FOUR PEOPLE LEFT IN THE CIRCLE; WE'RE ALMOST TO THE END OF OUR LITTLE GAME HERE. I'M WELL AWARE THAT SOME OF YOU HAVE TRIED TO ESCAPE, BUT I'M AFRAID..."
There was a long pause.
"...THAT WON'T BE HAPPENING."
The lights didn't flash this time. There were no buzzers or dramatic sounds.
"I'VE DECIDED TO CUT THE PIZZAZ THIS TIME. IT SEEMS AS IF IT HAS BEEN... CAUSING ISSUES. SO TO CUT TO THE CHASE, TONIGHT, OUR LUCKY NUMBER IS 18."
The doors beneath Specs' chair opened, sending him plummeting to his most certain doom.
Finale Story
Three people left. If you had any chance of escaping on your own, this was it. You kept kicking at the leg restraint bit by bit, and as you kept kicking, it kept loosening. You could feel it just about to break free! Just a few more kicks, and...
"IT IS TIME FOR THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF OUR FINAL VOTE."
...you had time for one, maybe two more kicks.
"I'M NOT GONNA DRAG THIS ON FOR ANY LONGER THAN IT HAS TO GO. IT SEEMS ONE OF OUR DEAR FRIENDS HAS THE NOTION THAT HE CAN SIMPLY BREAK OUT OF HERE WITHOUT PLAYING THE GAME."
There was a click of restraints being opened. Someone stood up. They walked over to a panel on the side of the room. The doors underneath Xiao's chairs opened, sending Xiao plummeting to an unfortunate demise.
"And now, as for you..." as the Head Honcho spoke in his true voice, you could see the figure walking into frame. It was TZP.
"Shocked?" TZP mocked. "Yeah, it's me. I'm the one behind all this. You didn't think that 'loser' TZP could set up something like this, did you?"
You were shocked. As far as you were aware, TZP had died. You knew that many of your other coworkers at the company, even many people you never even met before today, weren't the most fond of TZP, but you never realized it was this bad.
"Yeah, Toby, I suppose you deserve an explanation before I get rid of you like I have with every one of these bullies. This wasn't just a one-time thing. It's been going on for years, to the point where I feared every day I had to show up to work. Sometimes I would call in sick just to avoid the relentless harassment. Some people even showed up to harass me outside work—at the bowling alley, at my favorite restaurant... even at my house, once. I couldn't take it any more. I guess you could say I snapped."
You were still confused. You had been aware of the issue, to some small degree, but as far as you could remember, you had never done anything to instigate against TZP.
"W-what did I do to hurt you? I don't ever remember doing anything..." you were frantic, still searching for a way to break out.
"You see, that's the thing..." TZP shook his head. "You don't remember, because it was such a small, insignificant thing to you!" He was seething now. "You see, it was you, YOU who started the damn rumors in the first place!!! If it weren't for you, NONE OF US would need to be here now!"
He pounded his foot against the ground.
"THIS WAS ALL A SETUP! THIS WHOLE DAMN GAME! You never even had a chance, because it was rigged from the start. I knew exactly what numbers you picked, so I could choose who to kill off at any given time. I knew exactly how you would vote, who you would decide to sacrifice to save your own skins, because I spent time STUDYING all of you!"
TZP held his hand over the button that would open the doors beneath your chair.
"Because you mean NOTHING to me."
The doors opened beneath your chair, and you were plunged into darkness...
I AM NUMBER ONE!
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 17, 2023, 05:52:49 PM"I'm scared..." a weak voice adds. Someone off to your right, it seems...
^ I'm pretty sure this person is me
OK I'm done making pointless posts
No such thing as a pointless post. Also, hello! It's been soooo long since I got to actually play in a game of TWG instead of hosting. And last time I died night 1 as the most interesting role #yellowwizzrobe.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 17, 2023, 06:19:35 PMAnd last time I died night 1 as the most interesting role #yellowwizzrobe.
I knew it!
Cheers to evening phase changes!
A reminder that if you have any PM convos, to include me as one of the recipients!!! Or if you forget, just sent me a PM with quotes of everything that was sent.
Let the games begin. Looking forward to this!
Why am I nervous because I think this game died
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 17, 2023, 06:19:35 PM#yellowwizzrobe.
Never forget :'(
Also yessssss BDS story!!!! Super excited!!
Also also hello yes it is I, I am here. Obligatory activity post. 48 hours for N1 is interesting, but seeing as how I'm already a bit confused by the game, I think that helps.
Note: I'm not confused in a way that the host could really explain something to make it go away :') I'm just sorta grasping at straws trying to understand... tbh anything.
Hi all
If we wanted to be really smart and maximise avoidance of anyone picking the same number, we could come up with a large plan where each night each player has their own different set of numbers to choose from.
For example, tonight each player could have one number from 1-10, one number from 11-20, one from 21-30... so on so fourth. That way the numbers are still spread out maximally from 1-100, and still keep it just as hard for the wolf to target a specific player. As more players die we can increase the selection of numbers people get to choose from as more become available.
In a way this might give the wolf a better chance of wolfing the player they want, but honestly barely. And aside from number swapping shenanigans from the third party, it should remove the chance of a double/triple/ quadruple night kill!!
The wolf is honestly very weak in this game, with us having like 4 lynches + the wolf having little control over who they kill, we need to extinct any chance of multiple night kills
If third party wants to claim now I don't see any reason why we'd lynch them. It saves a wolf counter claiming it later
I'm so excited to play
Also I'm from Scotland and my time zone is EST+5 so I will not be staying up until 3am for phase ends lol
Quote from: Toby on August 18, 2023, 04:26:48 AMIn a way this might give the wolf a better chance of wolfing the player they want, but honestly barely. And aside from number swapping shenanigans from the third party, it should remove the chance of a double/triple/ quadruple night kill!!
I would beg to differ. With everyone choosing a number from 1-100, the odds of any two people choosing the same number are incredibly slim, not to mention 3 or 4 people doing it. I think that sectioning off the numbers like that is not a good trade-off for the humans. It makes something impossible that is already statistically improbable, and makes it easier for the wolf to target someone specifically. And the idea that it barely allows the wolf to target someone is
very incorrect. The wolf would just have to choose the middle number of any person's chosen range and they would be guaranteed to wolf that person.
No cause we could say that since there's 9 players I can only choose a number divisible by 9. But then perhaps you could only choose a number (divisible by 9) + 1. E.g. I can choose 9,18,27,36 etc. and you can choose 10, 19, 28, 37 etc.
There's no middle range the wolf can pick to guarantee he wolfs me there. And even if the wolf thinks to choose one of mine to get me, it's far more likely he won't wolf me rather than will.
I just figure why not turn something that's unlikely into something impossible
Didn't realize you're from Scotland, huh
Anyway, just to make sure I'm following, you're saying that each person gets a set of multiples to choose from, rather than a specific range? To give an example, if there were 10 people in this game, say that Toby, you'd get all the numbers ending in 1 (1,11,21,31,...) and I'd get all the 2s (2,12,22,32,...) and THC would get all the 3s (3,13,23,33,...); am I understanding correctly?
The way I initially interpreted it (and maybe THC also seems to be interpreting? Correct me if I'm wrong, obvs) is that you're saying we each get a range. Following the same example above, you pick from 1-10, I pick 11-20, THC would pick 21-30. That would clearly allow the wolf to pick and choose, so I could see where he has a problem with that strategy.
Yeahh I'm from Scotland 🏴
Yes as you explained in your example above. Not specific ranges, but set multiples.
If we did it as multiples of [player count] + (a number from 0 to [player count]). If that makes sense
So there are 9 players so I'd do multiples of 9, the next person would do multiples of 9 then +1, and next person multiples of 9 but then + 2.
I get this game is already difficult for wolf to hit 2 people on the same number but I'd prefer impossible :)
Quote from: Toby on August 18, 2023, 08:17:53 AMNo cause we could say that since there's 9 players I can only choose a number divisible by 9. But then perhaps you could only choose a number (divisible by 9) + 1. E.g. I can choose 9,18,27,36 etc. and you can choose 10, 19, 28, 37 etc.
There's no middle range the wolf can pick to guarantee he wolfs me there. And even if the wolf thinks to choose one of mine to get me, it's far more likely he won't wolf me rather than will.
I just figure why not turn something that's unlikely into something impossible
The problem is less that that strat allows the wolf to pick and choose *which* player he goes after and more that that it actually *increases* the chance of getting multiple wolfings. If two players are restricted to a group of ten, and the wolf picks the number straddling the line between those tens, then it's much more likely that two people die than in a situation where everyone is picking a number scattershot. THC is right that everyone picking in an uncoordinated fashion already makes multiple wolfings extremely unlikely. To my eye, the most dangerous thing we could have happen is have multiple people saying "huh, looks like if I pick 0 or 100 I'm only vulnerable from one side, I guess I'll pick one of those." Having everyone swing toward the extremes would be dangerous and we should avoid that.
Quote from: Toby on August 18, 2023, 08:17:53 AMNo cause we could say that since there's 9 players I can only choose a number divisible by 9. But then perhaps you could only choose a number (divisible by 9) + 1. E.g. I can choose 9,18,27,36 etc. and you can choose 10, 19, 28, 37 etc.
This is better, but still doesn't make it "impossible," as you say. Say in this situation I am assigned numbers 9n, you are assigned numbers 9n+1, E. Gadd has 9n+2, and THC has 9n+3. In this situation my numbers are (9, 18, 27, 36, 45, 54...) and E. Gadd's are (11, 20, 29, 38, 47, 56...). The wolf could pick a number exactly in between our number sets (such as 10, 15, 19, 24, 28,...) to try to tag both of us. (same thing for you and THC in this example but I don't feel like typing that out). It is still very unlikely, but I think my point is that it still gives the wolf *some* set of information to work off of.
Ultimately it's star-aligning chance that would ever result in multiple wolfings unless we make it easy for the wolf.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 18, 2023, 09:03:24 AMThis is better, but still doesn't make it "impossible," as you say. Say in this situation I am assigned numbers 9n, you are assigned numbers 9n+1, E. Gadd has 9n+2, and THC has 9n+3. In this situation my numbers are (9, 18, 27, 36, 45, 54...) and E. Gadd's are (11, 20, 29, 38, 47, 56...). The wolf could pick a number exactly in between our number sets (such as 10, 15, 19, 24, 28,...) to try to tag both of us. (same thing for you and THC in this example but I don't feel like typing that out). It is still very unlikely, but I think my point is that it still gives the wolf *some* set of information to work off of.
Ultimately it's star-aligning chance that would ever result in multiple wolfings unless we make it easy for the wolf.
^ This is what I was trying to write out a minute ago. That and it's still very possible to pick someone else's number because multiples do line up, you know.
OK bye
Quote from: Toby on August 18, 2023, 08:53:15 AMNot specific ranges, but set multiples.
Quote from: Toby on August 18, 2023, 04:26:48 AMFor example, tonight each player could have one number from 1-10, one number from 11-20, one from 21-30... so on so fourth.
You only changed your idea after I called you out on it. Your original suggestion
was ranges. It wasn't just my understanding, it was your exact words.
Isn't there like an 11% chance that 2 people are gonna choose the same number tonight. Why not make that 0%.
My plan would never have 2 people picking the same number so if anyone is interpreting that then I may have not explained correctly.
And sure if the wolf really wanted say e gadd and Zelda and they were picking from 9. 18, 27... or 10, 19, 28 retrospectively, the wolf could target those numbers, but at moment that's still only like a 11% chance to get either of them, which is the same probability as it would be for 2 people to pick the same number. And then I guess what % chance is it that they're the ones picked lol.
I mean guaranteeing 1 kill is better than 2 imo. And the wolfs kill is still a shot in the dark cause in the above example he could pick 27 and neither egadd or Zelda picked a number in the 20s.
We could even arrange a list specifically so 2 people we wanted kept alive had a lower possibility of choosing numbers close to eachother. Say we didn't want the wolf to focus egadd and zelda, then we could have egadd do 9n+1 numbers and zelda do 9n+8. Just lowers that possibility but further
Omg @BDS what happens if the numbers are the exact same distance away? Say someone picks 6 and someone picks 8 and the wolf picks 7, who dies ?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 18, 2023, 09:15:26 AMYou only changed your idea after I called you out on it. Your original suggestion was ranges. It wasn't just my understanding, it was your exact words.
I understand the confusion it wasn't explained the best, but the intention was not ranges. As I said each player could
have one number from 1-10, one number from 11-20.
I didn't say they choose one number from that range, I meant they have a number for their selection.
Saying it goes up in multiples was a better way to put it, so I adopted that phrase. As my plan suggested we were still spreading our number choose maximally, and still keep it hard for the wolf to target a specific player. Those things wouldn't align if the plan was each player selected from a range, hence there must have been a misinterpretation due to my unclear explanation
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 17, 2023, 05:52:41 PMIn case of a tie, all tied players die.
This is my objection to your plan Toby--multiple wolfings are much more likely to happen via equidistant number picks to the wolf's number than via exact same number picks
Quote from: Toby on August 18, 2023, 09:29:47 AMIsn't there like an 11% chance that 2 people are gonna choose the same number tonight. Why not make that 0%.
I'm fairly confident that math is incorrect. Out of a group of two people, the chance of them picking the same number from 1-100 (let's leave 0 out for the sake of making the math a bit easier, just assume the final answer here is
more likely than the actual answer for our situation) is 1/10,000. Now, with a group of nine people, the likelihood increases, but definitely not from 0.01% to 11%. I don't know the exact number, but I would definitely say it's still less than 1%.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 18, 2023, 09:41:09 AMThis is my objection to your plan Toby--multiple wolfings are much more likely to happen via equidistant number picks to the wolf's number than via exact same number picks
Ohh ok I think I agree lol
I assumed the only way for multiple night kills was from picking the same number, but equal distance apart higher and lower also works rip
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 18, 2023, 09:48:21 AMI'm fairly confident that math is incorrect. Out of a group of two people, the chance of them picking the same number from 1-100 (let's leave 0 out for the sake of making the math a bit easier, just assume the final answer here is more likely than the actual answer for our situation) is 1/10,000. Now, with a group of nine people, the likelihood increases, but definitely not from 0.01% to 11%. I don't know the exact number, but I would definitely say it's still less than 1%.
I don't think I agree with my plan anymore but I'm sure the easiest way to look at the probability of above would be what's the chances of player 8 choosing 7 of the numbers already picked from 1-100. Isn't it like 7% then? If we count 8 humans picking numbers
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 18, 2023, 09:48:21 AMI'm fairly confident that math is incorrect. Out of a group of two people, the chance of them picking the same number from 1-100 (let's leave 0 out for the sake of making the math a bit easier, just assume the final answer here is more likely than the actual answer for our situation) is 1/10,000. Now, with a group of nine people, the likelihood increases, but definitely not from 0.01% to 11%. I don't know the exact number, but I would definitely say it's still less than 1%.
Not quite! The likelihood of two players picking a SPECIFIC same number from 1-100 is 10,000. However, since there are 100 different options for two players to pick the same number, and also eight human players, the odds are quite a bit higher.
Also
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 18, 2023, 09:03:24 AMUltimately it's star-aligning chance that would ever result in multiple wolfings unless we make it easy for the wolf.
I am changing my opinion here because I posted this without actually crunching any numbers
Assuming pure random distribution, the likelihood that human player picks a unique number is (1)(100/101)(99/101)(98/101)(97/101)(96/101)(95/101)(94/101) = 0.752499. So that's almost a 25% chance that two people pick the same number if we're all firing randomly, and that's even before you get into the probability that two people could pick equidistant numbers from the wolf's pick (a much more intensive calculation). Still unlikely, but very far from star-aligning chance.
If anyone doubts my math here, I invite you to take a look at the birthday problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem). It's a famous combinatorics result that says that in a pool of randomly chosen people, you only need to have 23 before you have better than even odds that two people have the same birthday. Doesn't seem plausible, but that's the way the numbers shake out.
Something similar here--with only two people picking numbers, the odds are infinitesimal that they'd pick the same number, but with eight people the chances are actually quite a bit higher.
scotland forever!!!
also i failed statistics in high school so i wont be much help with the math stuff haha
ill read through the stuff here later im busy rn
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 18, 2023, 10:32:11 AMIf anyone doubts my math here, I invite you to take a look at the birthday problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem).
Ironically enough, I was thinking of this exact math problem. I was just remembering it backwards. That's my bad.
Math @_@
Do you guys chat in a discord or is it all on the forum
Quote from: Toby on August 18, 2023, 12:12:58 PMDo you guys chat in a discord or is it all on the forum
To make sure to be inclusive for players such as A# who are not present on Discord, we are doing forum-only for the time being.
in general for other stuff we do chat in a discord tho
gone are the days we used to all have to go onto Mibbit at the same time to chat
RIP Tinychat. Tears in rain.
why you make me feel bad
why
Also I will finish reading this and (hopefully) give some content when I'm done with school (taking a short break atm)
I'm not convinced the best strategy is for us all just to hope for the best and pick our own numbers
Wowie math is hard
Like bats are simplerQuote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 18, 2023, 09:15:26 AMYou only changed your idea after I called you out on it. Your original suggestion was ranges. It wasn't just my understanding, it was your exact words.
So this is interesting, and I think I follow Toby's reasoning for explaining it like he did in the post you quoted, but I also could see it being easily interpretable in the way you did.
Unrelated to that immediate post but still important: with the possibility of equidistant wolfings, is it even worth it to try and coordinate? That math that TZP did bringing it to 25% likely two people would pick the same number, is that including the probability the wolf picks the same number as those two?
Quote from: Toby on August 18, 2023, 12:34:42 PMI'm not convinced the best strategy is for us all just to hope for the best and pick our own numbers
It may not be, but trying to covertly coordinate 8 players to distribute their numbers unevenly (to prevent equidistance) but evenly (to minimize chance of multiple wolfings) would be difficult without some sort of information being given to the wolf. I'm not good at these sorts of math games, but I'll try to think it over some more to see if I can't come up with some something that could work.
Not to mention that we'd need to factor in that a town-counting third party has a vested interest in causing shenanigans here; they would be very unlikely to bring about multiple wolfings, but it's still a possibility just as much as multiple wolfings happening on their own.
TZP seems good at math so I personally nominate him to solve the game
I say we should just pick random numbers and see where it takes us. The wolf/Phantom Number Swapper could probably figure us out if we stick to a certain set. We wouldn't want to make things easier for them.
~Inside the Half-Dead Mind of A# Minor~
Woo, I started a new page with my wonderful comment
They do say that the moment you show your hand is the moment you have lost.
"Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."
-Sun Tzu, The Art of War
"misquote the art of war so people think you know what youre talking about"
- sun tzu, the art of war
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 18, 2023, 01:33:49 PM"misquote the art of war so people think you know what youre talking about"
- sun tzu, the art of war
It's not a misquote, and I do know what I'm talking about. Any plan we come up with here in a public space, regardless of how sound it may be, will be seen by the wolf. Which means that no matter what plan we attempt to come up with (in regards of picking numbers, at least), the wolf will be able to come up with a counterplan. Just cause I'm an annoying know-it-all doesn't mean I can't back myself up. (I'm not saying that facetiously, I know I'm annoying.)
And I was quoting Sun Tzu because I had Technoblade on my mind, may he rest in peace
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 18, 2023, 02:18:09 PMAny plan we come up with here in a public space, regardless of how sound it may be, will be seen by the wolf. Which means that no matter what plan we attempt to come up with (in regards of picking numbers, at least), the wolf will be able to come up with a counterplan.
thats so negative !
Apologies for the absence last night and this morning.
I've thought a lot about this, and I've yet to think of any meaningful strategy on picking numbers.
As discussed, if no one announces any of their choices, the wolf has no information and cannot target anyone. However, we do run the risk of a double (or more) wolfing as a result of a duplicate pick or equidistant picks.
I did a little research, and here's what a found. The birthday problem can be modeled by the equation: p(different) = e^-((n^2)/(2T)), where n is the number of people, and T is the total choices. Subbing in 8 for n and 100 for T (8 humans, 100 numbers), we get p(different) = e^((8^2)/(2(100))), which gives p(different) = .73. That means there is 27% chance two (or more) people pick the same number. That seems high, and at first thought, I don't want to take the chance.
However, there are some other things to consider. First, two people picking the same number isn't costly unless the wolf's choice is closest to it. I don't know that stats on that, but I'm sure it dramatically lowers the risk from 28%. Second, everyone picking different numbers does not defend against equidistant picks. I have no idea how to model that statistically. But again, that's only relevant if the wolf picks a number between the equidistant picks.
All that being said, I do like the track that Toby is on of avoiding duplicate picks. Having each player assigned a ones digit (as suggested) does accomplish that. Furthermore, I'm not convinced it really gives the wolf that much information, if any at all. So what if the wolf knows that my number will end in 5. I could pick 5, 65, 85, etc.
Even if we all pick random numbers is the probability not still the same for their to be a tie with equidistant picks
Hi i just remmebered this and am glad I didn not miss a phase!!
TOBY HI OMG ITS NICE TO SEE YOU AGAIN
ig ill got read the PAGES ive missed already .-.
And just to be clear, I interpreted the strategy to be each player gets an assigned ones digit, while each player picks the tens digit and keeps it to themselves. For example, I get assigned a 5, so I pick 5, 15, 25, etc. I fail to see how this runs an increased risk of equidistant picks.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 18, 2023, 03:03:28 PMAnd just to be clear, I interpreted the strategy to be each player gets an assigned ones digit, while each player picks the tens digit and keeps it to themselves. For example, I get assigned a 5, so I pick 5, 15, 25, etc. I fail to see how this runs an increased risk of equidistant picks.
yeah that was pretty much my plan
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 18, 2023, 03:03:14 PMHi i just remmebered this and am glad I didn not miss a phase!!
TOBY HI OMG ITS NICE TO SEE YOU AGAIN
ig ill got read the PAGES ive missed already .-.
heyooooo nice to see you too :)
I still would rather choose my number randomly and don't plan on being convinced otherwise. However, I would also like to state for the record that I currently believe that Toby is town. As much as I have been refuting his points, I also don't believe he would be arguing for them so heavily this early on as a wolf. To me it reads more as town trying to convince the rest of town that this plan is the best course of action (even if I don't agree).
I'm not sure if it really matters too much if we organize our numbers. Leaning on random picking unless I'm convinced before then ig
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 18, 2023, 03:34:34 PMI'm not sure if it really matters too much if we organize our numbers. Leaning on random picking unless I'm convinced before then ig
I had that thought as well tbh. It seems like it doesn't really make a ton of difference picking random vs not unless we get a plan spun up.
Also, with the ~25-27% on the birthday problem application, I was thinking about it; IF we are going on the wolf picking the same number as two humans, wouldn't that be 26% * 1/100 (such that a wolf with no info whatsoever chooses the same number out of 100 as two humans)? If p=0.0026, that is certainly not the end of the world if we can't come up with a solid plan
without letting the wolf know anything useful.
One other thought I had recently: how would it be best to go about day phases? The wolf has quite a bit to burn through to win, but we can extend that by not going for lynches straight out the gate (unless we're 95% certain we're going for a wolf). Unless you're the phantom number swapper, there's no fear that the wolf is going to be able to target any special roles (even as the number swapper you can't be sure of a targeted wolf attack), so we don't really have anyone to overtly protect aside from those who would bring good strategy to the human side. But even those can't be targeted.
Basically what I'm saying is, I'm not sure what the precedent is on this, but I think it could be worthwhile to not go for lynching during the day phases unless we're dead serious on the person we're putting on the chopping block. It gives us more time to make a strategy and we don't really have anyone specific to worry about dying due to wolfing, whereas anyone we lynch who isn't the wolf means the game still goes on and not in town's favor.
This does have the caveat though that we will need to find another way to flush out the wolf, although I'm not sure how that'll be functionally different from if we were to vote for lynch candidates before we had strong suspicions about a particular person.
Quote from: Toby on August 18, 2023, 09:29:47 AMOmg @BDS what happens if the numbers are the exact same distance away? Say someone picks 6 and someone picks 8 and the wolf picks 7, who dies ?
Just for full clarification, as mentioned in the game post:
QuoteWhoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die.
So both 6 and 8 would die.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 18, 2023, 03:53:39 PMI had that thought as well tbh. It seems like it doesn't really make a ton of difference picking random vs not unless we get a plan spun up.
Also, with the ~25-27% on the birthday problem application, I was thinking about it; IF we are going on the wolf picking the same number as two humans, wouldn't that be 26% * 1/100 (such that a wolf with no info whatsoever chooses the same number out of 100 as two humans)? If p=0.0026, that is certainly not the end of the world if we can't come up with a solid plan without letting the wolf know anything useful.
One other thought I had recently: how would it be best to go about day phases? The wolf has quite a bit to burn through to win, but we can extend that by not going for lynches straight out the gate (unless we're 95% certain we're going for a wolf). Unless you're the phantom number swapper, there's no fear that the wolf is going to be able to target any special roles (even as the number swapper you can't be sure of a targeted wolf attack), so we don't really have anyone to overtly protect aside from those who would bring good strategy to the human side. But even those can't be targeted.
Basically what I'm saying is, I'm not sure what the precedent is on this, but I think it could be worthwhile to not go for lynching during the day phases unless we're dead serious on the person we're putting on the chopping block. It gives us more time to make a strategy and we don't really have anyone specific to worry about dying due to wolfing, whereas anyone we lynch who isn't the wolf means the game still goes on and not in town's favor.
This does have the caveat though that we will need to find another way to flush out the wolf, although I'm not sure how that'll be functionally different from if we were to vote for lynch candidates before we had strong suspicions about a particular person.
Sorry I have to disagree with no lynching. Us lynching is the only controlled kill in this game. The wolfings give us no information, but a lynching confirms if any suspicion, even slight is wolf or not.
We are best using our greatest power the most we can
Sure. It was a thought I had, wanted to see if the logic would float. But I suppose it was built on this idea that there's some deep level strategy that could be useful in outing the wolf by manner of play. I'm still not convinced that that doesn't exist in a game like this, but I'm also struggling greatly with the math side; it's an important part that I have little hope I'll be able to parse through in any meaningful way.
Also just gonna put it out there for any metagamers, I don't look to be as active this game as I have been. Activity is useful, but I'm also trying to practice healthy boundaries with online things in general. Really with everything in my life at this point. But anyway, yeah. I'll still contribute to the game and be as thoughtful with the posts I do make. Just... not as many posts or not as often online.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 18, 2023, 03:53:39 PMAlso, with the ~25-27% on the birthday problem application, I was thinking about it; IF we are going on the wolf picking the same number as two humans, wouldn't that be 26% * 1/100 (such that a wolf with no info whatsoever chooses the same number out of 100 as two humans)? If p=0.0026, that is certainly not the end of the world if we can't come up with a solid plan without letting the wolf know anything useful.
Not quite, because the wolf doesn't need to pick the exact number of the duplicate pick; he
only needs to be closest to the pick. You're right that this makes the odds much lower than 26%, but its not quite a 1/100 multiplier.
On a broader scale, yes you are correct that I don't really think it makes much of a difference if we all choose randomly. We're talking about unlikely scenarios; and while there definitely is a way to avoid a duplicate pick, it requires 100% cooperation.
A reminder to new and returning players to please not edit any game posts you make.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 18, 2023, 04:58:59 PMA reminder to new and returning players to please not edit any game posts you make.
Guilty as charged ;D It was just a typo for transparency to the other players. Won't happen again!
Also a reminder that the phase will end in approximately 24 hours from now.
Oh, umm. The game's started, huh? :-\ Sorry for not checking in earlier.
We're having quite a chilly winter here in NZ and I am so sick. I can't really think straight at the moment, but despite that, I've taken a look through your comments.
I checked your math on the birthday problem thing, and it looks sound to me, not that I'm an expert anyway. Regardless, I'm not sure how useful it is. As SpecsFlyer17 mentioned, the wolf doesn't need to pick exact numbers; whoever is closest will die. I don't have any grand plans yet so I'm just going to pick a random number. ;)
Oh my, I didn't expect to be so inactive today. Too bad I'll be inactive tomorrow as well because it's my sister's birthday. But I should be up until like 2 am so no worries
Anyways, random picking for the win, and I don't understand any of the math you guys are doing :')
i was joking
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 18, 2023, 10:25:18 PMi was joking
??? What about? The Sun Tzu thing?
Anyway, yeah, today ended up being busy, but I
did submit a number early on (although I did plan to change it if we got some sort of reasonable plan going).
yeah, i missed page 2 of the messages oops
What do you think about organising numbers, XiaoMigros?
I think it's the only way for us to bring any sort of strategy into the game and put pressure on the wolf, so I am in favor of it. However, it's largely pointless if not everyone participates (and for this reason THC is #1 on my sus list)
you can call me xiao btw
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 19, 2023, 04:25:40 AMI think it's the only way for us to bring any sort of strategy into the game and put pressure on the wolf, so I am in favor of it. However, it's largely pointless if not everyone participates (and for this reason THC is #1 on my sus list)
I disagree. While it is technically a way to insert strategy into the game, it doesn't have any inherent way of helping us figure out who the wolf is, which would then mean that the only point of doing it would be if it made a significant difference in the likelihood of multiple kills. Which, as previously argued and mathed, doesn't make enough of a difference (to me, at least) to merit giving our plan away to the wolf, since they can just as easily see our plan here as the rest of us. There's also the fact that the wolf would most likely agree with the plan, since they would probably see it as a town thing to do. The plan itself is barely a detriment to the wolf, if at all, so there would be no reason for them to disagree with it if everyone else is agreeing.
Isn't the probability of the wolf being able to target a specific player still the same whether we co ordinate numbers following my plan or not ?
The wolf has a higher chance of picking a players exact number sure, but isn't it the same probability that they will pick the number closest to that specific player ?
Say there was 10 humans in the game picking numbers 1-100, there's a 10% chance of either specific player dying.
Now say we all pick numbers that end in a different specific digit e.g. player A - 1. 11. 21, ... player B - 2, 22, 32...
If wolf wants to target player B so he chooses number 22. Still a 10% chance of getting them right ?
I'm not sure if the probability increases of multiple deaths due to equidistant number picks, I'm sure it doesn't really it might just feel like it though.
I played with some numbers and I'm pretty confident at this stage in the game there isn't a way for us all to do coordinate so that all 3 of below are true:
1) we all pick unique numbers
2) we all pick numbers that make equidistant ties impossible
3) we still make our selection random enough that the wolfs kill still remains random enough
These are the only numbers I found from 0-100 that if only these are selected and none are picked twice, a tie is not possible:
0, 3, 8, 15, 24, 35, 48, 63, 80, 99.
But if we were to co ordinate to make everyone pick a unique number, we would turn this game into a normal manhunt pretty much and the wolf gets his power back in being able to choose who they want to kill. Is that an even trade to ensure there aren't multiple deaths ?
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 05:33:20 AMSay there was 10 humans in the game picking numbers 1-100, there's a 10% chance of either specific player dying.
Now say we all pick numbers that end in a different specific digit e.g. player A - 1. 11. 21, ... player B - 2, 22, 32...
If wolf wants to target player B so he chooses number 22. Still a 10% chance of getting them right ?
I'm not sure if the probability increases of multiple deaths due to equidistant number picks, I'm sure it doesn't really it might just feel like it though.
This is kinda what I'm getting at. Sure, we could calculate this to death, but that would only accomplish two things. One: It will just confuse us all to the point where we can't even think straight. And two: It would ruin the spirit of the game. The idea is to figure out who the wolf is using social cues and deduction. Trying to calculate the best number picks just drains the fun away.
I actually very disagree that this line of thinking ruins the spirit or the game, quite the opposite - I think it is in the spirit of this game ! Numbers is the mechanics of the game and I'm sure we are free to act on that how we like. Working together as a team in co ordination is in the spirit of any twg! And either of the plans spoken of barely help us deduct who the wolf is, only through limiting the number of night kills and possibly letting us have more lynches. But I think any plan discussed so far has had its trade offs and nothing against the spirit of the game
THC, the reason the wolf would see this as a town thing to do is because it helps the town. Let us use this mechanic to our advantage, or at least use it at al. I've goty eye on you...l
The only plan I know using the mechanics to really help us find a wolf at this stage of the game, (if all parties accepted) could give a 1/7 chance of finding a wolf in exchange for a 6/7 chance of a double kill
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 06:20:36 AMI actually very disagree that this line of thinking ruins the spirit or the game, quite the opposite - I think it is in the spirit of this game ! Numbers is the mechanics of the game and I'm sure we are free to act on that how we like. Working together as a team in co ordination is in the spirit of any twg! And either of the plans spoken of barely help us deduct who the wolf is, only through limiting the number of night kills and possibly letting us have more lynches. But I think any plan discussed so far has had its trade offs and nothing against the spirit of the game
I agree here, the game has a design that is meant to be strategized with so we can come up with some interesting plays. It just requires that we tease them out. I'm def curious to hear what strats BDS had in mind as he was coming up with this game, in post-game.
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 05:47:08 AMI played with some numbers and I'm pretty confident at this stage in the game there isn't a way for us all to do coordinate so that all 3 of below are true:
1) we all pick unique numbers
2) we all pick numbers that make equidistant ties impossible
3) we still make our selection random enough that the wolfs kill still remains random enough
These are the only numbers I found from 0-100 that if only these are selected and none are picked twice, a tie is not possible:
0, 3, 8, 15, 24, 35, 48, 63, 80, 99.
But if we were to co ordinate to make everyone pick a unique number, we would turn this game into a normal manhunt pretty much and the wolf gets his power back in being able to choose who they want to kill. Is that an even trade to ensure there aren't multiple deaths ?
Responding to the underlined parts, part 1: so what you're saying is we might be able to come up with a strategy as the game wears on that would allow for coordination of that level?
Part 2: Hmmm... it's certainly a powerful trade, but I'm not certain who it helps more. The chances of multiple deaths are low, and if we do turn this into a manhunt, would we even be able to go back? Especially considering that the chances of multiple deaths will continue to drop as things progress.
Toby, could you explain how your suggested strategy could help us identify the wolf? Not sure I'm following you there.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 19, 2023, 09:00:11 AMI agree here, the game has a design that is meant to be strategized with so we can come up with some interesting plays. It just requires that we tease them out. I'm def curious to hear what strats BDS had in mind as he was coming up with this game, in post-game.
Responding to the underlined parts, part 1: so what you're saying is we might be able to come up with a strategy as the game wears on that would allow for coordination of that level?
Part 2: Hmmm... it's certainly a powerful trade, but I'm not certain who it helps more. The chances of multiple deaths are low, and if we do turn this into a manhunt, would we even be able to go back? Especially considering that the chances of multiple deaths will continue to drop as things progress.
Part 1: at this stage in the game, as I said above there's the 10 numbers we could limit ourselves to to ensure no ties. If we had 5 players we could have 2 numbers each which could at least change it to a 50% chance of the wolf killing who they want
Part 2: I mean sure every night you can have a different strategy so can always go back
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 19, 2023, 09:13:30 AMToby, could you explain how your suggested strategy could help us identify the wolf? Not sure I'm following you there.
The strategy I've mentioned doesn't
But I mean I could potentially tell everyone the number I picked making me a juicy target for the wolf. The number swapper could swap someone's else's number to match mine which if I die fulfils their win condition. Granting the wolf a double kill because it would be a tie. The risk for the wolf though is that if I die alone, the number swapper knows that they chose the wolf since the swap didn't work.
The wolf gets a double kill, knows who they are killing but risks the 1/7 chance that the swapper chooses them. Is it worth it for the wolf idk, maybe depends on who claims their number and if they're juicy enough of a target, but double kills are quite juicy too
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 09:52:37 AMrisks the 1/7 chance that the swapper chooses them.
The PNS' power only affects humans. Says so in the game post.
I misread your post and didn't realize until I had just hit post, ignore my last statement, I'm dumb
lol yeah it only working on humans is the point
It's a fun strategy but it would involve someone sacrificing themselves which I'm sure no one wants to do for a 1/7 chance of catching a wolf - but someone has to die anyway lol
I think the number swapper should just claim, there's no reason to lynch them. And if they don't claim now and are the target of a lynch later and claim their role after receiving votes we'd be inclined to believe it could be a wolf in a last chance effort to live and lynch them anyway:
At least if they claim now they can't be counterclaimed and we can trust them
On the road for a wedding but will hopefully weigh in on this before phase end
I haven't thought of any meaningful strategy involving the PNS yet, but I can't think of any advantage the wolf receives if its identity is know. I think I support the PNS claiming, but let me think on that for a bit.
Are you thinking because you're the PNS?
Haha no, I am not the PNS.
sounds like something the PNS would say...
Toby, I track with your reasoning about everyone picking numbers that are a set distance apart! I think that if that guarantees one wolfing, that would probably be the way to go. The catch is that it's easy for people to defect if they're not on board with the plan/uncomfortable with everyone knowing which number they picked, and also that it makes it trivially easy for the PNS to switch someone's number to get a double kill. If we pursue your plan here, there's no reason for the PNS to claim—they can get a win night 1 without revealing themselves.
Here's my suggestion—it's a variant on your plan. What if we have someone pick a number (probably 50 to get it dead center) and have everyone pick a number a set distance from it?
So in this case
I pick 50
Specs picks 49 or 51
Toby picks 48 or 52
Olimar picks 46 or 54
E. Gadd picks 43 or 57
A# picks 38 or 62
THC picks 30 or 70
etc.
The PNS can conceivably get a kill off this, but it's not by doubling up kills. And while it's definitely still possible for the wolf to get a double (eg Toby picks 48, Olimar picks 54, wolf picks 51), it's highly unlikely because the wolf will not know whether everyone picked their number above or below 50.
If this has any obvious holes please do point them out—I'm quite distracted right now. But I think this is a way to combine best of what Toby and THC are saying. Namely, organize in a way that minimizes the chance of a double kill while also giving up the minimum amount of public information.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 18, 2023, 05:09:52 PMGuilty as charged ;D It was just a typo for transparency to the other players. Won't happen again!
also im gonna cyberbully you for this specs
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 12:15:04 PMHere's my suggestion—it's a variant on your plan. What if we have someone pick a number (probably 50 to get it dead center) and have everyone pick a number a set distance from it?
So in this case
I pick 50
Specs picks 49 or 51
Toby picks 48 or 52
Olimar picks 46 or 54
E. Gadd picks 43 or 57
A# picks 38 or 62
THC picks 30 or 70
etc.
This could work^ I get that this is an example, but one thing I'd caution you is to make sure all the gaps between numbers between players are odd. In this example, if Toby picks 52 & Olimar goes 54, the wolf could still get a double kill by choosing 53.
making sure all the gaps are odd would be quite the challenge
Odd gaps doesn't get rid of that risk:
TZP 50
E. Gadd 49 or 51
Olimar 48 or 52
Specs 47 or 53
E. Gadd picks 49, Olimar picks 52, Specs picks 47, wolf picks 48, gg.
It's impossible to guarantee every gap between every player is odd because adding odd numbers together results in an even number.
Doesn't the phase end tonight? Cause I'm going to bed now and I already put my number in forever ago. I probably won't be around again before phase change.
p sure it ends in 6 hours
Yeah, so even if everyone manages to agree to a plan before then, I will be asleep. If not everyone follows the plan, then attempting the plan would probably end up worse off than not. Just because someone being random throws the whole thing into chaos.
the whole thing will be more chaos if nobody follows the plan..
So what plan are we going with? TZP's or Toby's? Or some secret third option I may be forgetting?
If THC is actually going to bed we may not be able to coordinate. We could try to coordinate everyone who's not THC, but the plan loses the benefit of knowing that everyone was on board with jt. So random selection may be our best option.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 12:48:22 PMIf THC is actually going to bed we may not be able to coordinate. We could try to coordinate everyone who's not THC, but the plan loses the benefit of knowing that everyone was on board with jt. So random selection may be our best option.
I have work tonight, so yes I am actually going to bed. I was just responding to some messages first. This is my last post.
May the almighty BDS have mercy on our souls.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 19, 2023, 12:37:35 PMp sure it ends in 6 hours
Yep! Unless the power goes out cause of the storm. Let's hope it doesn't. :-X
Yeah I don't think we have time to fully co ordinate. But even if most of us were co ordinated it's better than nothing but I don't think everyone was able to agree
TZP's plan just sounded like there was a lot more opportunity for ties than mine
Also want to reiterate if the third party doesn't claim tonight then they will be in danger of being lynched later in the game. Tonight is the only night with all players so if they claim tonight there will be no counter claim. However due to no cardflips, we won't know if the third party dies tonight or not which could allow the wolf to false claim later- hence only a claim tonight would provide the third party safety from future lynches.
Toby, what is the advantage you see in having the PNS claim?
Anyway if you wanted to do the plan I initially suggested this is how it would work for everyone
A# Minor
You pick a number in 9 times table
TheZeldaPianist275
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +1 to final number
Olimar12345
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +2 to final number
E. Gadd Industries
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +3 to final number
ThatHiddenCharacter
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +4 to final number
SpecsFlyer17
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +5 to final number
XiaoMigros
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +6 to final number
magnet
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +7 to final number
Toby
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +8 to final number
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 01:18:57 PMToby, what is the advantage you see in having the PNS claim?
I want to lynch wolves. The PNS is not a wolf. 1 less person i need to worry about lynching
if they claim now i can trust their claim and not lynch them. if we try lynch them later and they say 'hey don't lynch me im the PMS not a wolf' then I can't trust that because PNS might have got wolfed already
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 01:20:33 PMAnyway if you wanted to do the plan I initially suggested this is how it would work for everyone
A# Minor
You pick a number in 9 times table
TheZeldaPianist275
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +1 to final number
Olimar12345
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +2 to final number
E. Gadd Industries
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +3 to final number
ThatHiddenCharacter
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +4 to final number
SpecsFlyer17
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +5 to final number
XiaoMigros
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +6 to final number
magnet
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +7 to final number
Toby
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +8 to final number
FWIW, I will sleep soon and be submitting my number based on this plan
Just a clarification on what happens when each role doesn't submit a night action (in case it wasn't clear enough in the game description):
- If the Head Honcho does not submit a number, it is randomized. There will always be a wolfing.
- If a Number Cruncher does not submit a number, it is randomized. Everyone gets a number whether they want one or not.
- If the PNS does not submit a number, it is randomized. If they do not pick a person to number swap, they do not carry out their swapping action at all since the act of swapping is optional. If they pick a person to number swap but do not pick a number for them (it happens! :P) then the number that person is swapped to is randomized.
are we allowed to know how the random numbers are generated
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 01:23:53 PMI want to lynch wolves. The PNS is not a wolf. 1 less person i need to worry about lynching
I understand this rationale, but doesn't the PNS claiming also provide the wolf with a potential ally? I agree with you that the wolf is weak in this game. If the PNS claims, doesn't that incentivize the wolf to privately contact the PNS and coordinate a double wolfing, which advantages both teams?
Oh also I agree with Toby and Xiao that some coordination is better than none. I also will submit a number 9n+1 as per Toby's scheme.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 19, 2023, 01:54:01 PMare we allowed to know how the random numbers are generated
Indeed!
https://www.random.org/integers/
I'll generate the numbers one at a time as needed and assign them from top-to-bottom down the player list for anyone who didn't submit a night action.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 01:55:48 PMI understand this rationale, but doesn't the PNS claiming also provide the wolf with a potential ally? I agree with you that the wolf is weak in this game. If the PNS claims, doesn't that incentivize the wolf to privately contact the PNS and coordinate a double wolfing, which advantages both teams?
:o
hi wolf, im the PNS!! please tell me who you are in DMs so we can win together, thanks
Is that a real claim
Tzp why did u announce that 😭
I will pick my number based on Toby's strategy.
Phase ends in just under 2 hours!!!
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 19, 2023, 05:08:20 PMPhase ends in just under 2 hours!!!
Dawn of the First Day.
Just under 2 hours remain.
... And I missed 4 pages @_@
Phase update may be a little late as we have to do some final prep for the incoming tropical storm~
If I have to, I'll give an impromptu update and then edit it as necessary.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 19, 2023, 02:49:41 PMhi wolf, im the PNS!! please tell me who you are in DMs so we can win together, thanks
Um, no.
I am the Phantom Number Swapper.
Also sorry BDS!! Hopefully it doesn't hit too hard. :(
Seems legit. Are you going to tell us what you did?
TWG CXV: Just a Numbers GameSpoiler
To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.
Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.
Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher
Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.
Host Clarifications:
- The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
- The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
- The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
- An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
- An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
- The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
- The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
- The game does not have cardflips.
----------
Players:
1. A# Minor
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. Olimar12345
4. E. Gadd Industries
5.
ThatHiddenCharacter6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. magnet
9. Toby
----------
THC was wolfed, having picked the number 74.It is now Day 1. Day 1 ends in two days, on Monday, August 21 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).
Guys, I don't think THC was the wolf
A#, are you willing to share who you swapped?
Day 1 story has been updated in the second post :sun:
Quote from: magnet on August 19, 2023, 07:04:21 PMGuys, I don't think THC was the wolf
Yeah, if he was, the game would've ended
(Besides, I'd love to see the wolf wolf himself.)
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 19, 2023, 07:05:20 PMA#, are you willing to share who you swapped?
I tried to swap TZP :P
I'm wondering if we should all share the number that we chose for Night 1. If A# is telling the truth (both about being the PNS and choosing TZP), we may be able to find some evidence if everyone shares, since we know 74 was the closest to the wolf's number.
Thoughts? What's done is done; Night 1 results have no impact on any future nights, so I can't see any downside for the humans to share what they picked.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 19, 2023, 07:32:04 PMI'm wondering if we should all share the number that we chose for Night 1. If A# is telling the truth (both about being the PNS and choosing TZP), we may be able to find some evidence if everyone shares, since we know 74 was the closest to the wolf's number.
Thoughts? What's done is done; Night 1 results have no impact on any future nights, so I can't see any downside for the humans to share what they picked.
I second this idea and would gladly tell my numbers. (Also RIP ThatHiddenCharacter :( )
Rip TZP :c
Idm telling that I just picked the number 1 without rhyme or reason.
Quote from: A# Minor on August 19, 2023, 06:19:24 PMUm, no. I am the Phantom Number Swapper.
Was this a serious claim, A#?
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 19, 2023, 08:20:57 PMWas this a serious claim, A#?
Of course it was, why else would I claim?
Also, my number was 35 and I swapped TZP's to 20. FAIL
Still here Olimar—pick on someone else pls A#
My number was 9(1)+1=10 as per Toby's plan—not that it matters, apparently. Specs is right that there's probably no downside to sharing our numbers, though I don't know that it's going to be very helpful in terms of providing suggestions for wolf candidates. What's done is done indeed—that was a frustrating way to end the phase
I'm actually the PNS
I swapped E gadds number to match mine, so we both chose 35
Yeah, right. 35 is MY number.
Anyway, if you are the PNS, you wouldn't ask someone else to false claim for you when you could easily do it yourself...
Imagine 35 was the closest number 3 people would have died LOL
I did my (9x3)+8 tho :P
Alright something is definitely off here. We have two players claiming PNS.
A# claimed to switch TZPs while retaining 35.
Toby claimed to switch E Gadd to 35 while retaining 35.
If Toby is truthful, looks like the wolf missed out on a triple kill there.
Anyways, we've got a situation here.
Toby saying that he picked 35 and that he also switched E. Gadd's number to 35 (which would result in his death if he wins—isn't that what he was trying to avoid?) is really bothering me. It seems like he's trying to play it safe, because if he (Toby) picked the number 35 and survived, then E. Gadd also wouldn't die at 35, so there would be no way that he could have won. (I can clarify this if you need me to; I just can't find the words right now.) I don't see any reason to swap someone else's number to the same number as yours. Again, if Toby was the PNS, him risking his death along with E. Gadd's (and me!) is contradicting those crazy plans he came up with last night. Doesn't sit well with me at all.
Quote from: A# Minor on August 19, 2023, 10:39:33 PMToby saying that he picked 35 and that he also switched E. Gadd's number to 35 (which would result in his death if he wins—isn't that what he was trying to avoid?) is really bothering me. It seems like he's trying to play it safe, because if he (Toby) picked the number 35 and survived, then E. Gadd also wouldn't die at 35, so there would be no way that he could have won. (I can clarify this if you need me to; I just can't find the words right now.) I don't see any reason to swap someone else's number to the same number as yours. Again, if Toby was the PNS, him risking his death along with E. Gadd's (and me!) is contradicting those crazy plans he came up with last night. Doesn't sit well with me at all.
Remember, the PNS wins if the swap causes someone new to be wolfed. Their win condition isn't tied to them surviving, necessarily.
I'm still more concerned that two people claimed.
Late to the party. I originally picked 22 but if Toby is correct then it ended up being 35 :P (also I didn't get the chance to change my number to follow the plan, else I would've done that)
I'm gonna sleep on this PNS double claim. I've got some PMs with THC that I can share as well where he was of the mindset Toby was PNS all along fishing for an easy wolf counterclaim. If Toby is indeed PNS, then it seems THC was spot-on about that.
This is an interesting situation and my initial response is, if they both claim, lynch 'em both, one day after the other, but I would like to give the PNS a chance to win. So, that's my initial reaction. Take from it what you will. I'll be back tomorrow around 2pm PDT to give more of a well-put-together thought process. I also might be around toward 9a PDT if I can catch some time after rehearsal.
my number was 42 (9x4+6)
my number was 0
Why didn't you follow the number-choosing scheme?
btw I am not the pns
My strategy was just to change someone's number to match mine, so that if my number is the closest one I die but I win.
Regardless I still want to help find wolves so going to keep hunting.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 20, 2023, 12:39:49 AMWhy didn't you follow the number-choosing scheme?
Well, uh. I assumed you couldn't change your number after you have already submitted it. But anyway, I'm not really convinced about the scheme. Maybe I'm a dummy.
Also... are we lynching someone or not? (How do you even vote? I haven't played on this forum) Is it even worth lynching one of the supposed PNS?
Quote from: magnet on August 20, 2023, 04:48:28 AMHow do you even vote?
You announce in this thread the name of who you vote for (usually in bold text)
Quote from: magnet on August 20, 2023, 04:48:28 AMAlso... are we lynching someone or not? (How do you even vote? I haven't played on this forum)
As Xiao said, just
bold the name of the person you're voting for when you vote for them. Unfortunately, unlike some other places we don't have a bot to auto-count votes (or post a current votecount), but the bold text helps hosts (and other players!!!) more easily pick up on votes.
magnet
A list of the numbers everyone chose themselves so far:
1. A# Minor - 34
2. TheZeldaPianist275 - 10
3. Olimar12345 - 1
4. E. Gadd Industries - 22
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros - 42
8. magnet - 0
9. Toby - 35
Just still no idea which number Specsflyer picked yet
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 20, 2023, 05:06:53 AMmagnet
The host, voting for magnet?? I think we can end this game here and now
Quote from: Toby on August 20, 2023, 05:13:07 AMA list of the numbers everyone chose themselves so far:
wild to me that i picked the highest living number
I picked 77. Looks like I narrowly avoided death there.
so wolf number was between 59-75
Obviously one of the 8 numbers on Tobys list is boloney since it came from the wolf.
However, using those numbers, the wolf must've picked between 59 and 75. I don't think that data is useful to us for any deduction, but it's neat knowing.
Also it just occurred to me that there are actually 101 choices, since 0 is fair game haha.
Quote from: magnet on August 20, 2023, 04:48:28 AMWell, uh. I assumed you couldn't change your number after you have already submitted it. But anyway, I'm not really convinced about the scheme. Maybe I'm a dummy.
Also... are we lynching someone or not? (How do you even vote? I haven't played on this forum) Is it even worth lynching one of the supposed PNS?
Why weren't you convinced about the scheme and why didn't you say so before the phase ended?
I also find it strange you claimed to go for the first number available as if we want to consider social factors/psychology into our probability, one could say that 0 had a higher chance of being picked by someone else over other numbers just because it's the first number available
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 20, 2023, 07:44:24 AMObviously one of the 8 numbers on Tobys list is boloney since it came from the wolf.
depends on whether youre the wolf or not
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 20, 2023, 08:21:33 AMdepends on whether youre the wolf or not
To include my 77
If everyone is being honest about their numbers, then it would be between SpecsFlyer and Xiao. But the wolf obviously isn't going to be honest. I know this may not be helpful, but just sharing. Also I have a feeling that the wolf could be using Toby's plan to manipulate us
Quote from: A# Minor on August 20, 2023, 08:45:35 AMIf everyone is being honest about their numbers, then it would be between SpecsFlyer and Xiao. But the wolf obviously isn't going to be honest. I know this may not be helpful, but just sharing. Also I have a feeling that the wolf could be using Toby's plan to manipulate us
How could the wolf use my plan to manipulate us ?
Quote from: A# Minor on August 20, 2023, 08:45:35 AMIf everyone is being honest about their numbers, then it would be between SpecsFlyer and Xiao. But the wolf obviously isn't going to be honest. I know this may not be helpful, but just sharing. Also I have a feeling that the wolf could be using Toby's plan to manipulate us
Yeah, I doubt the wolf is going to be honest about that. The number that the wolf submitted to BDS doesn't have to be the same as the one they fake as their guess to us. The wolf may have submitted 75, but then claimed to guess 25.
Quote from: Toby on August 20, 2023, 08:48:06 AMHow could the wolf use my plan to manipulate us ?
I'll explain after I get breakfast
this is quite some breakfast... reveal when
This is truly a breakfast of champions
i know, it is, ive been having it for 4 hours now
...
and i just found out i have to go somewhere soon. yey.
Very quiet today.
I for one would like to call out Olimar (sorry) for being suspiciously quiet
He also picked an odd number I thought, claiming to pick number 1, which I think could be quite a common number for anyone else to select and a target for the wolf
It is quiet. Everyone must still be eating breakfast.
My big suspicion stems from the double PNS claim. What are some reasons to falsely claim PNS? I can't really think of any besides being a wolf... do we think either A# or Toby is the wolf?
I don't think A# is a wolf, I don't see any benefit to a wolf counter claiming
If town want to lynch the PNS though that's a different story
Quote from: Toby on August 20, 2023, 02:24:14 PMI for one would like to call out Olimar (sorry) for being suspiciously quiet
Hmm, we went through this last game already
Still, would be nice to hear from him maybe?
Xiao any thoughts ? Reading your past game I feel like you were more analytical in that than how you have been here
Quiet Sunday it is
Olimar, magnet, egadd and TZP all been very quiet
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 20, 2023, 02:34:07 PMIt is quiet. Everyone must still be eating breakfast.
New inside joke? XDD
Quote from: Toby on August 20, 2023, 02:45:09 PMI don't think A# is a wolf, I don't see any benefit to a wolf counter claiming
Well obviously you won't suspect yourself lol
This 24 hour votecount is brought to you by: Tropical Storm Hilary
Current votecount
Nobody's voted!!!
Reminder that the phase ends in approximately 24 hours.
Yikes, and I'll most likely be inactive tomorrow @_@ A# Minor, because I probably won't get time to vote (but please don't lynch me while I'm gone, kthx)
Hilary 2016 revenge tour: Hurricane Edition
sorry guys my breakfast took aages
Quote from: Toby on August 20, 2023, 03:55:35 PMXiao any thoughts ? Reading your past game I feel like you were more analytical in that than how you have been here
You think so? I think that in the past game also I only got analytical a little later on in the game, once there was more information to go off of. Still, I'd be happy to answer any questions and will try to write something today maybe
Quote from: A# Minor on August 20, 2023, 07:55:26 PMYikes, and I'll most likely be spending all day eating breakfast tomorrow @_@
Fixed
I definitely need to hear more from Olimar, E. Gadd, and TZP (all of who have been practically nonexistent this game), though I heard E. Gadd may be preoccupied atm
Well I can't accuse anyone for spending hours to eat their breakfast because I'm not really any better :')
... this game is quiet
and the one night i actually decide to stay up until this hour, everybody is asleep. oh well :P
actually everyone was eating breakfast
Still thinking about why two people claimed PNS.
What benefit does the wolf have of falsely claiming? I can't think of a whole lot. The real PNS will likely also claim, and that just raises suspicion and increases the likelihood of getting lynched.
How about a human falsely claiming? My question is why? Its going to look suspicious, and lynching the PNS doesn't really help the humans all that much.
Also why did A# vote for themself? Interesting decision....
Question for host: What does 'last human alive' mean for the PNS? Is this condition met once the wolf has been lynched and there are other humans left, or should there specifically be no (other) humans left?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 07:17:29 AMAlso why did A# vote for themself? Interesting decision....
Safetying on myself because I probably won't be back before the phase change
@Xiao
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 17, 2023, 05:52:41 PM9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive.
you just highlighted the part I'm confused about- how is that even supposed to happen
So seems like all the humans have to be dead and they end up winning with the wolf
also why do you have to vote at all, im still confused about that too
Ninja'd— everything went wrong in that post so kindly ignore it
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 08:32:52 AMSo seems like all the humans have to be dead and they end up winning with the wolf
gotcha, thanks
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 08:33:29 AMNinja'd— everything went wrong in that post so kindly ignore it
its fine haha
NINJAD AGAIN
If you don't, you get a phantom vote, and IIRC 3 phantoms means you're out of the game
Ah okay lol
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 07:17:29 AMlynching the PNS doesn't really help the humans all that much.
Well in that case...
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 07:17:29 AMWhat benefit does the wolf have of falsely claiming? I can't think of a whole lot. The real PNS will likely also claim, and that just raises suspicion and increases the likelihood of getting lynched.
...I think I might have just solved the puzzle, or at least part of it:
Yesterday, Toby sent me this DM:Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 09:34:58 PMHi I assumed your PNS claim in the topic was a joke but since the PNS actually claiming could be damaging to humans if they work with the wolf, I think you should double down on your claim and I'm just gonna claim too to mess things about more lol
He indirectly asked me if I was the PNS or not, to which I replied:
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 11:18:08 PMhey! it was half a joke and half just an attempt to get things moving a little, but if you claim too that sounds good enough for me to unclaim lol
Clearly, Toby has a stronger intention than most to figure out who the PNS is. As for why that is, allow me to explain the strategy behind this:
First off, just so it's clear,
If the wolf and the PNS can find eachother, the PNS can win next night and the wolf gets 100% control over the wolfingsi.e. it's beneficial for
both the wolf and the PNS to find out who's who, so they can coordinate. The wolf picks a number, the PNS picks a person and sets that persons number to the one chosen by the wolf.
Now, the PNS could still decide to play town and then the wolf is screwed, but winning as town is significantly more difficult and doesn't have a strong benefit (winning is winning, after all).
This means, wolf!Toby has an incentive to find the PNS and give him control over his kills. He tried to ask me if I was the PNS, but not entirely directly so I don't get suspicious
oops.
I retracted my claim shortly after.
town!Toby however would have no reason to contact me privately, and could simply claim PNS publicly to offset my possible 'mistake' of letting the wolf reach the PNS. That said, I may be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, I'm not sure if asking me publicly would have been a good idea.
PNS!Toby has no reason at all to ask me if I'm the PNS, unless it's as some sort of bluff. Either way, this is mostly irrelevant, as will be evident by the end of this post.
So, as town, to win, what can we do? Well, either A# Minor or Toby is almost certainly the PNS, since they're the only two who claimed it. More likely than not, it's A# Minor. As for the wolf, for the reasons I explained above, Toby is currently my top contender.
Therefore I propose
lynching both of them, probably Toby first but it doesn't matter that much.
Why both of them? If we miss the first night, we can as good as guarantee the wolf and PNS will be working together, allowing them to pick off the most experienced and knowledgeable players. As towns we aren't inherently against the PNS, but if they are helping the wolf then getting rid of them is a good idea.
TL;DR: Toby probably wolf, A# probably PNS, lynch both
Also, it really would be nice to hear from olimar, e. gadd, tzp, magnet, you guys have been very quiet :(
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 07:17:29 AMStill thinking about why two people claimed PNS.
What benefit does the wolf have of falsely claiming? I can't think of a whole lot. The real PNS will likely also claim, and that just raises suspicion and increases the likelihood of getting lynched.
How about a human falsely claiming? My question is why? Its going to look suspicious, and lynching the PNS doesn't really help the humans all that much.
Also why did A# vote for themself? Interesting decision....
It is a very risky play to make a fake claim like that, but after PMing with both Toby and A# Minor, I'm not so convinced that either of them is a wolf unlike my previous message. A human claiming like that is a good way to raise suspicions, certainly, but I've seen claims like that really get conversation going and people's colors revealed pretty quickly thereafter. Granted, this game has been rather quiet.
Generally, my apologies for the quiet on my end, classes start for me today so I've been getting ready for that (and there's also just a lot of messy in the class I'm going to be teaching this semester).
wait no, i was eating breakfastSo as of now, I'm also going to safety on myself,
E. Gadd Industries, but will try to get back to the game with an actual vote before phase change.
Currently, my head is still swimming with the numbers business so I'm going to move away from that and focus more on the other aspects of the game. I still am of the mindset we should try to help the PNS win with town (and I'm willing to take the fall for that to happen). As for who the PNS is, I'm pretty convinced that it's Toby at this point. Otherwise, the real PNS needs to speak up now.
Thoughts on individuals:
-Toby: PNS
-A# Minor: Human (from PMs)
-Specs: Generally town lean, has been trying to strategize where possible and attempting to understand the NinSheetMusic brand of TWG (and doing quite well)
-Xiao: Slight town lean, but nothing major. Has been talking.
-TZP: Not sure
-Olimar: Ehhhhhhhh very slightly town, but he needs to talk more to clarify that
-Magnet: Sick :(
-THC: Dead
-E. Gadd: Busy with prepping for school, but has been PMing various folks (although that's been relatively fruitless aside from my reads on Toby and A# Minor)
-BDS: Needs to eat breakfast sometimes
I'm also going to look back at what people participated in the plan made and who didn't (and why), which may influence my current reads. I can't remember who did what for that. Would do now but I have a meeting with a potential collaborator in 15 mins!
EDIT: ALL THE ABOVE IS NULL. I GOT NINJA'D 11 TIMES AND XIAO JUST DROPPED A BOMBSHELL
i just realised my message reply says quote from toby (i had to copy+paste the quote formatting) but it is from me just so thats clear
Okay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).
ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.
direct quotes would be greatly appreciated
Crap I can't read. Toby said he *hasn't* spoken with A#
Jeez, I'm trying to get as much done as possible in the limited time I have, and I need to read better.
That's why i went to uni for biology
Quote from: Toby on August 20, 2023, 02:41:36 PMNo I've not spoken to A#
Here's this, now please imagine me sprinting across campus to make this meeting
OKBYE
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 21, 2023, 08:51:27 AMCrap I can't read. Toby said he *hasn't* spoken with A#
Unfortunately I don't know the context for this but it seems like a peculiar thing to mention
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 21, 2023, 08:49:53 AMOkay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).
ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.
bruh
WHY
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 21, 2023, 08:49:53 AMOkay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).
ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.
Why did you say this
egadd
still catching up and will respond after work
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 09:00:56 AMegadd
voting egadd is a really weird way to respond to this situation but okay
Actually I think it's a perfectly reasonable response. I don't get the point of sharing absolutely everything with the thread. >:(
Besides, what if I said all of that to mess with him? Hmm????
^ that was supposed to be four question marks
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 08:38:18 AMWell in that case...
...I think I might have just solved the puzzle, or at least part of it:
Yesterday, Toby sent me this DM:
He indirectly asked me if I was the PNS or not, to which I replied:
Clearly, Toby has a stronger intention than most to figure out who the PNS is. As for why that is, allow me to explain the strategy behind this:
First off, just so it's clear, If the wolf and the PNS can find eachother, the PNS can win next night and the wolf gets 100% control over the wolfings
i.e. it's beneficial for both the wolf and the PNS to find out who's who, so they can coordinate. The wolf picks a number, the PNS picks a person and sets that persons number to the one chosen by the wolf.
Now, the PNS could still decide to play town and then the wolf is screwed, but winning as town is significantly more difficult and doesn't have a strong benefit (winning is winning, after all).
This means, wolf!Toby has an incentive to find the PNS and give him control over his kills. He tried to ask me if I was the PNS, but not entirely directly so I don't get suspicious oops.
I retracted my claim shortly after.
town!Toby however would have no reason to contact me privately, and could simply claim PNS publicly to offset my possible 'mistake' of letting the wolf reach the PNS. That said, I may be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, I'm not sure if asking me publicly would have been a good idea.
PNS!Toby has no reason at all to ask me if I'm the PNS, unless it's as some sort of bluff. Either way, this is mostly irrelevant, as will be evident by the end of this post.
So, as town, to win, what can we do? Well, either A# Minor or Toby is almost certainly the PNS, since they're the only two who claimed it. More likely than not, it's A# Minor. As for the wolf, for the reasons I explained above, Toby is currently my top contender.
Therefore I propose lynching both of them, probably Toby first but it doesn't matter that much.
Why both of them? If we miss the first night, we can as good as guarantee the wolf and PNS will be working together, allowing them to pick off the most experienced and knowledgeable players. As towns we aren't inherently against the PNS, but if they are helping the wolf then getting rid of them is a good idea.
TL;DR: Toby probably wolf, A# probably PNS, lynch both
While the wolf finding the PMS is beneficial. It's not beneficial enough for the wolf to put their neck on the line to find them. I personally would not be too bothered if I was wolf and my kills stayed random. Them being random would not incentivise me to false claim or send sneaky messages to try and find the PMS just for my kills to be controlled.
I asked if your claim was genuine or not because as explained, even if it wasn't, I wanted you to still claim it. If it was genuine, then I'm sure you would have clarified that in the topic.
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 09:29:18 AMIf it was genuine, then I'm sure you would have clarified that in the topic.
I already said it wasn't, see #152 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435296#msg435296)
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 09:14:51 AMI don't get the point of sharing absolutely everything with the thread. >:(
Forgive me for thinking that withholding relevant information is suspicious
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 09:31:36 AMI already said it wasn't, see #152 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435296#msg435296)
I PM'd you before that post
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 09:14:51 AMBesides, what if I said all of that to mess with him? Hmm????
Mess with who? E. Gadd? If anything that makes you even more suspicious
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 09:34:25 AMForgive me for thinking that withholding relevant information is suspicious
How can you agree that the wolf finding the PMS is beneficial to them, but then think withholding information on a human's plan trying to divert the wolf from finding the PMS is suspicious?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 09:35:48 AMMess with who? E. Gadd? If anything that makes you even more suspicious
Oops, looks like I can't jest in this game
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 09:42:35 AMOops, looks like I can't jest in this game
i mean theres nothing wrong with some humor but 1) it can be hard to tell and 2) doesnt really help you get out of a situation, just makes you look worse
The debate over whether it is beneficial for the wolf to draw out the PNS is interesting.
The wolf can either play lowkey and go for random kills, or attempt to draw out the PNS and go for a targeted kill.
I see benefits to both.
If the wolf teams up with the PNS, he gets a double kill that involves a targeted kill at the expense of being slightly suspicious. The PNS has no downside to team with the wolf, since the PNS can meet the victory condition easily.
If the wolf goes random, he stays under the radar but may take an extra phase or two to win.
Also for those interested I made a personal note of who followed the number plan, what they picked etc:
1. A# Minor - 35 - didn't follow plan
2. TheZeldaPianist275 - 10 - did follow the plan and said they would
3. Olimar12345 - 1 - didn't follow plan
4. E. Gadd Industries - 22 - didn't follow plan
6. SpecsFlyer17 - did follow the plan and said they would
7. XiaoMigros - 42 - did follow the plan and said they would
8. magnet - 0 - didn't follow the plan
9. Toby - 35 - did follow the plan and said they would
I was surprised E.gadd didn't follow the plan and wasn't around at phase end. But I wasn't sure if a wolf would admit they went against the grain
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 09:37:24 AMHow can you agree that the wolf finding the PMS is beneficial to them, but then think withholding information on a human's plan trying to divert the wolf from finding the PMS is suspicious?
This has got nothing to do with a plan, A# Minor responded with «I don't get the point of sharing absolutely everything with the thread. >:(» when I questioned your immediate reaction of voting E. Gadd after him sharing some information about you both.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 09:47:42 AMThe debate over whether it is beneficial for the wolf to draw out the PNS is interesting.
The wolf can either play lowkey and go for random kills, or attempt to draw out the PNS and go for a targeted kill.
I see benefits to both.
If the wolf teams up with the PNS, he gets a double kill that involves a targeted kill at the expense of being slightly suspicious. The PNS has no downside to team with the wolf, since the PNS can meet the victory condition easily.
If the wolf goes random, he stays under the radar but may take an extra phase or two to win.
I don't believe the PNS and wolf working together can get a double kill any easier than they can if they don't work together
the only double kill I see is if the PNS swaps someone to match their own, or someone the PNS/wolf know the number someone else is picking
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 09:49:35 AMThis has got nothing to do with a plan, A# Minor responded with «I don't get the point of sharing absolutely everything with the thread. >:(» when I questioned your immediate reaction of voting E. Gadd after him sharing some information about you both.
Because I, and I assume A# think the information that egadd shared could be damaging to the humans, and beneficial to the wolf.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 21, 2023, 08:49:53 AMOkay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).
ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.
if the above is true how is revealing it worth it more beneficial than not?
I am back from ye olde road trip. Lots of stuff to respond to here.
First of all, I know this is fairly far afield from what we're talking about here re: the PNS, but Olimar and Magnet, your number picks were not helping anyone last night. One of the very first things we talked about was NOT skewing toward the extremes, which would put people at risk of doubling up and potentially allowing for multiple kills.
Now, the PNS shenanigans going on rn. Along with Xiao, I find it very odd that Toby spent most of Night 1 casting about for the PNS to claim, and then when I tried to discreetly suggest that might not be such a good thing, continued to force the point and say "nah we should only lynch a wolf, I just want to remove the PNS from the lynch pool". Then when I pointed out more explicitly why I thought that was a bad idea, he was like "a ha yeah good point lol"
I also am very suspicious of E. Gadd, who backed up Toby's PNS claim by claiming to have
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 19, 2023, 11:10:01 PMsome PMs with THC
that say that THC thought that Toby was actually the PNS all along. It is VERY convenient to claim these PMs exist immediately after THC was bumped off and can no longer verify them.
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 09:50:01 AMI don't believe the PNS and wolf working together can get a double kill any easier than they can if they don't work together
the only double kill I see is if the PNS swaps someone to match their own, or someone the PNS/wolf know the number someone else is picking
You're undermining your own argument here, and EXPLICITLY spelling out for the thread exactly how the wolf and the PNS could each benefit from knowing each other's identity.
TL;DR: making the identity of the PNS public knowledge does NOT help the humans, and Toby has been the one pushing for that the hardest. E. Gadd, after N1's conclusion, claimed to have unverifiable knowledge that corroborated that Toby was in fact the PNS. It looks like they coordinated behind the scenes for this. I think it's likely that
Toby is a wolf and E. Gadd is the PNS. I would be happy lynching either one.
Also E. Gadd why'd you say this game is quiet?? 9 pages of activity night 1 is close to a forum record probably
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 09:51:52 AMBecause I, and I assume A# think the information that egadd shared could be damaging to the humans, and beneficial to the wolf.
Yup. I was really trying there >:(
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 09:46:52 AMi mean theres nothing wrong with some humor but 1) it can be hard to tell and 2) doesnt really help you get out of a situation, just makes you look worse
That was pure sarcasm, not me trying to get out of it. What's said has been said...
Well I think E. Gadd might be the wolf but my gut instinct isn't always right. If Toby was a wolf then why would he claim PNS, possibly also to bait the wolf?
Overuse of the word "wolf" but idc
TZP, how does the PNS and wolf working together benefit the wolf though? They get a double kill (PNS and targeted human), but then what? The wolf is on their own, and probably looks suspicious after trying to draw out the PNS earlier.
Not necessarily debating you, just curious your thoughts.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:01:57 AMYou're undermining your own argument here, and EXPLICITLY spelling out for the thread exactly how the wolf and the PNS could each benefit from knowing each other's identity.
I said I see how they can benefit from each other
I also said I don't see how them working together can create a double kill
where am I undermining my own argument
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 10:08:13 AMprobably looks suspicious after trying to draw out the PNS earlier.
I mean, that's a risk the wolf would have to weigh carefully. All I'm saying is that I'm suspicious of the way that Toby argued for it and then IMMEDIATELY dropped it once I pushed back against it strongly.
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:10:14 AMI said I see how they can benefit from each other
I also said I don't see how them working together can create a double kill
where am I undermining my own argument
Am I misreading? Creating a double kill benefits them both BECAUSE it creates a double kill--that's my point.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:14:02 AMAm I misreading? Creating a double kill benefits them both BECAUSE it creates a double kill--that's my point.
Which is why the wolf should've claimed to me lol :'(
For those playing along at home, here's the strategy in discussion.
Wolf either claims PNS or attempts to draw out PNS.
Wolf and PNS contact each other.
Wolf gives PNS a name to target, and they both decide on the number.
PNS picks said number and swaps the targeted player to that number as well.
Wolf picks that number, causing both the PNS and targeted player to be wolfed.
PNS meets win condition. Wolf gets a double kill.
Just clarifying for everyone.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:01:57 AMNow, the PNS shenanigans going on rn. Along with Xiao, I find it very odd that Toby spent most of Night 1 casting about for the PNS to claim, and then when I tried to discreetly suggest that might not be such a good thing, continued to force the point and say "nah we should only lynch a wolf, I just want to remove the PNS from the lynch pool". Then when I pointed out more explicitly why I thought that was a bad idea, he was like "a ha yeah good point lol"
I do admit I undermined the power of the PNS and wolf finding each other, I didn't see any benefit to it before.
You said you tried to discreetly suggest it might not be a good thing, this was your post:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 01:18:57 PMToby, what is the advantage you see in having the PNS claim?
That's just a question to me. And even if you want to interpret this as discreetly suggesting it's not a good idea, why not PM me? you've opened PM'd me first already this game. If you think I'm off on the wrong track PM me, you don't have to announce it to the topic, regardless, you did:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 01:55:48 PMI understand this rationale, but doesn't the PNS claiming also provide the wolf with a potential ally? I agree with you that the wolf is weak in this game. If the PNS claims, doesn't that incentivize the wolf to privately contact the PNS and coordinate a double wolfing, which advantages both teams?
And I took your word for it there, but can someone please correct me if I'm now wrong, I don't think the PNS and wolf can co-ordinate double wolfings? how can the PNS force a tie if they don't know anyone else's number.
When you said that I found it odd that you revealed it to the topic, again I feel like you should have kept it to yourself.
Also you're probably the 1 person in this game I'd think should suspect me least for claiming to be the PNS considering you suggested humans claim in a PM to me:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 03:22:36 PMDealing with this in PMs to avoid further attention—I interpreted Xiao's post as a joke and not a sincere claim. If it is a joke and Xiao is just a regular human but the wolf falls for it that would be an INSANE way to end the game Day 1. However if it is a sincere claim—how do you want to handle it? Do the "I am Spartacus" approach and have multiple other people claim PNS to spook the wolf off?
I said that was a good idea, which relates to why I asked Xiao to double down on his claim and asked if his claim was genuine or not. If it was genuine I wanted other people to claim so the wolf couldn't reach out. If it wasn't genuine I was going to leave it but then A# claimed so I hopped in.
I also sent magnet a message to claim PNS as a further distraction since he hadn't been online yet. But he decided not to after A# did
I was actually surprised you didn't claim, TZP, considering it was your plan after all
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 10:22:25 AMFor those playing along at home, here's the strategy in discussion.
Wolf either claims PNS or attempts to draw out PNS.
Wolf and PNS contact each other.
Wolf gives PNS a name to target, and they both decide on the number.
PNS picks said number and swaps the targeted player to that number as well.
Wolf picks that number, causing both the PNS and targeted player to be wolfed.
PNS meets win condition. Wolf gets a double kill.
Just clarifying for everyone.
Yes the only double kill I see is from the PNS suiciding - if the wolf and PNS are working together anyway is that even a bad thing if PNS dies?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:01:57 AMI also am very suspicious of E. Gadd, who backed up Toby's PNS claim by claiming to have some PMs with THC that say that THC thought that Toby was actually the PNS all along. It is VERY convenient to claim these PMs exist immediately after THC was bumped off and can no longer verify them.
You're undermining your own argument here, and EXPLICITLY spelling out for the thread exactly how the wolf and the PNS could each benefit from knowing each other's identity.
This had me confused also, the immediate believing that Toby is the PNS without any reasonable confirmation. I'm not sure if this inherently makes E. Gadd questionable, and I have doubts about A# Minor too, but it seems we can both agree on
Toby.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:14:02 AMI mean, that's a risk the wolf would have to weigh carefully. All I'm saying is that I'm suspicious of the way that Toby argued for it and then IMMEDIATELY dropped it once I pushed back against it strongly.
Am I misreading? Creating a double kill benefits them both BECAUSE it creates a double kill--that's my point.
obviously i pushed back you had a good point that it could create a double kill
and I think I was so confused with numbers I somehow agreed
but unless I'm still missing something, the only double kill would be a one off with a human + PNS , which is fine i think?
THC did believe I was the PNS and I didn't really entertain it or comment on it because it was N1 and I didn't know if he was a wolf or not. Here are my PMS from THC:
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 18, 2023, 03:23:08 PMI don't actually have anything of particular note to discuss yet, I just want this PM to exist for when we do have stuff to discuss (unless, of course, you have anything you wish to discuss right now). As of right now, you are the only one I'm town-leaning on. Not to say I have 100% faith in you or anything, but I still think it's worth putting merit in.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 18, 2023, 07:43:00 PMQuoteWoo go team town
I know you probably just said that to be funny, but it honestly makes me think you're actually PNS. But since there's really no reason for PNS to side with the wolf, that still means I trust you the most right now.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on August 19, 2023, 12:34:08 PMI'm going to say this now in case I die tonight before I come back online. I fully believe you are PNS baiting for the wolf to try and claim it. Am I wrong? Probably. But still, that is what my gut is telling me. I suppose there isn't much of a reason for me to tell you this, but I at least want it to be known in case I die. If I do die and you aren't wolf, please win the game for my honor.
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 01:01:01 PMLol I'm not the PNS. the wolf would not claim it right now that would just get them killed. I fully believe it's in the PNS best interest to claim
How does me and e gadd working together make sense? What do you think happened?
A# Claims PNS
I claim PNS
e gadd messages both as he is (apparently now) the real PNS. But he is able to make the deduction that I'm actually a wolf and now we are both working together?
Eh. The human+PNS double kill may not be as powerful as we thought, but I don't think it should be entirely undermined. For every double kill the wolf gets, a phase of the game gets shortened. That could potentially be a lynching that the wolf doesn't have to deal with. If I were the wolf, that's a risk that sounds fairly enticing, especially if I didn't have to pry too hard to get the PNS to come forward. Add that to the fact that the wolf gets to specifically hand pick the human to kill, and I think this deal sounds better and better.
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:22:46 AMQuote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 01:55:48 PMI understand this rationale, but doesn't the PNS claiming also provide the wolf with a potential ally? I agree with you that the wolf is weak in this game. If the PNS claims, doesn't that incentivize the wolf to privately contact the PNS and coordinate a double wolfing, which advantages both teams?
When you said that I found it odd that you revealed it to the topic, again I feel like you should have kept it to yourself.
This seems like a general strategy remark that concerns everyone though, I don't see a compelling reason why that should be kept to PMs only.
I literally counter claimed a PNS claim. How am I trying to find the PNS by doing that that makes no sense at all. I thought A# was the PNS and I counter claimed so the wolf didn't know who to reach out to.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 10:39:06 AMEh. The human+PNS double kill may not be as powerful as we thought, but I don't think it should be entirely undermined. For every double kill the wolf gets, a phase of the game gets shortened. That could potentially be a lynching that the wolf doesn't have to deal with. If I were the wolf, that's a risk that sounds fairly enticing, especially if I didn't have to pry too hard to get the PNS to come forward. Add that to the fact that the wolf gets to specifically hand pick the human to kill, and I think this deal sounds better and better.
WHICH IS WHY THE WOLF SHOULD'VE CLAIMED TO ME :'(
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 10:39:06 AMAdd that to the fact that the wolf gets to specifically hand pick the human to kill, and I think this deal sounds better and better.
This to me is the main benefit; the wolf and PNS can choose who gets killed
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 10:39:27 AMWhen you said that I found it odd that you revealed it to the topic, again I feel like you should have kept it to yourself.
This seems like a general strategy remark that concerns everyone though, I don't see a compelling reason why that should be kept to PMs only.
because he openly announces a beneficial Wolf/PNS strategy that only comes alive if the PNS claims? Him saying that actually entices the PNS to claim and follow his plan
If he PM'd me I could have stopped pushing for it in topic
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:40:04 AMI literally counter claimed a PNS claim. How am I trying to find the PNS by doing that that makes no sense at all.
You knew I wasn't the PNS, and by claiming it for yourself but not as a joke you were trying to get the real PNS to step forward.
Also guys I earned my second star. Please clap
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 10:42:32 AMYou knew I wasn't the PNS, and by claiming it for yourself but not as a joke you were trying to get the real PNS to step forward.
A# Already claimed. As far as I was aware the real PNS already claimed? If I wasn't going to find sincerity in A#'s claim, how would I find sincerity in any other claim? your logic or timelines dont make sense
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 10:43:24 AMAlso guys I earned my second star. Please clap
I got 5 extra stars from these two games XD
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:42:19 AMbecause he openly announces a beneficial Wolf/PNS strategy that only comes alive if the PNS claims? Him saying that actually entices the PNS to claim and follow his plan
Him saying that makes it a known fact and means we can vote out any PNS that shows up
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:44:05 AMA# Already claimed. As far as I was aware the real PNS already claimed? If I wasn't going to find sincerity in A#'s claim, how would I find sincerity in any other claim? your logic or timelines dont make sense
A# only claimed after you did??? or am I missing something
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 10:45:28 AMA# only claimed after you did??? or am I missing something
I claimed first
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 10:43:24 AMAlso guys I earned my second star. Please clap
congrats
cant relate, i have transcended stars as a concept
Would link to it but I'm kinda in the middle of doing my school here
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 10:46:20 AMWould link to it but I'm kinda in the middle of doing my school here
That's fine, I believe you
Toby, what were you trying to achieve with claiming PNS then, if the established PNS was already known?
Claiming PNS after someone else prevents the wolf from knowing his identity. This puts a roadblock on the wolf+PNS teaming up that we have discussed.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 10:48:49 AMClaiming PNS after someone else prevents the wolf from knowing his identity. This puts a roadblock on the wolf+PNS teaming up that we have discussed.
You ninja'd me by saying what I was going to say XDD
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:22:46 AMIf you think I'm off on the wrong track PM me, you don't have to announce it to the topic, regardless, you did
This is a reasonable thing to say, but if I PMd you and said "stop talking about this publicly" wouldn't it have seemed odd to everyone else to just drop that topic of conversation suddenly? I responded kinda impulsively because I was at a wedding, and I suppose I could have said something to you privately, but I'm not wholeheartedly convinced that it would have been better.
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:22:46 AMAlso you're probably the 1 person in this game I'd think should suspect me least for claiming to be the PNS
I don't suspect you for being the PNS--I suspect you for being the wolf. And I didn't suspect you because you claimed PNS, I initially interpreted that as a smokescreen which I thought was fine. It was E. Gadd's backup message that made me lean that way.
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:22:46 AMI was actually surprised you didn't claim, TZP, considering it was your plan after all
At the time you also suggested that a counterclaim from you or me wouldn't carry much weight, since we had already spoken out against it in the thread. I asked Specs if he would do it instead, and he declined. Specs verify this please
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:33:34 AMWhat do you think happened?
A# Claims PNS
I claim PNS
e gadd messages both as he is (apparently now) the real PNS. But he is able to make the deduction that I'm actually a wolf and now we are both working together?
It wouldn't need to be E. Gadd making that deduction lol--it could just as easily have been you, couldn't it? I'm not saying I know what happened behind the scenes with you two, I'm just saying that this post (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435292#msg435292) looks like you two have been communicating privately and coordinating a narrative.
If anyone doesn't believe I only claimed PNS to throw the wolf off being able to link up:
TZP suggested it:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 03:22:36 PMHowever if it is a sincere claim—how do you want to handle it? Do the "I am Spartacus" approach and have multiple other people claim PNS to spook the wolf off?
I asked magnet to false claim first, which could 1. make the wolf claim to him if Xiao's post wasn't serious or 2. if Xiao was serious, mean the wolf couldn't find the PNS:
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 03:43:27 PMHey
Do you feel like (false?) claiming the third party in the TWG
I believe Xiao just jokingly claimed so it would work for you to counter claim and then he says he was joking and you're the only claim standing probs. If the real third party counter claims you I think a bunch of people will just pile on so no one knows who to believe
As TZP mentioned in the game the wolf could be inclined to reach out to the third party so if they claimed to you that could be a win, and I think a fake claim from you would be most believable
You have this PM from me to prove to everyone it was a fake claim intended to try catch the wolf if anyone becomes sus of you but i think it's worth a try
I then asked Xiao to double down on his claim after A# claimed, as when A# claimed I assumed it was real and I wanted to enact the 'I am Sparticus!' plan TZP suggested:
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 09:34:58 PMHi I assumed your PNS claim in the topic was a joke but since the PNS actually claiming could be damaging to humans if they work with the wolf, I think you should double down on your claim and I'm just gonna claim too to mess things about more lol
I then claimed after, committing to the I am Sparticus plan, I was surprised to see TZP did not claim
warning liberals: do NOT say "PNS" out loud very quickly
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 10:48:49 AMClaiming PNS after someone else prevents the wolf from knowing his identity. This puts a roadblock on the wolf+PNS teaming up that we have discussed.
Ah I see. This certainly complicates things, but I'm glad we have the time to work through them...
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:52:08 AMwarning liberals: do NOT say "PNS" out loud very quickly
joe biden??!! soada
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:50:29 AMThis is a reasonable thing to say, but if I PMd you and said "stop talking about this publicly" wouldn't it have seemed odd to everyone else to just drop that topic of conversation suddenly? I responded kinda impulsively because I was at a wedding, and I suppose I could have said something to you privately, but I'm not wholeheartedly convinced that it would have been better.
Yeah this is where my thoughts lie too, PMing this seems to be overthinking things a little idk
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:52:08 AMwarning liberals: do NOT say "PNS" out loud very quickly
honestly tho
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:50:29 AMThis is a reasonable thing to say, but if I PMd you and said "stop talking about this publicly" wouldn't it have seemed odd to everyone else to just drop that topic of conversation suddenly? I responded kinda impulsively because I was at a wedding, and I suppose I could have said something to you privately, but I'm not wholeheartedly convinced that it would have been better.
I don't suspect you for being the PNS--I suspect you for being the wolf. And I didn't suspect you because you claimed PNS, I initially interpreted that as a smokescreen which I thought was fine. It was E. Gadd's backup message that made me lean that way.
At the time you also suggested that a counterclaim from you or me wouldn't carry much weight, since we had already spoken out against it in the thread. I asked Specs if he would do it instead, and he declined. Specs verify this please
It wouldn't need to be E. Gadd making that deduction lol--it could just as easily have been you, couldn't it? I'm not saying I know what happened behind the scenes with you two, I'm just saying that this post (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435292#msg435292) looks like you two have been communicating privately and coordinating a narrative.
Okay but I shared the PM's that THC said me here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435407#msg435407) that shows he actually did believe I was PNS during Night 1. So he didn't just express it to me, he also expressed it to Egadd. Does that answer your suspicion with Egadds post
TZP, what do you think of wolf!E. Gadd and PNS!Toby? I think it's quite possible that A# Minor's initial PNS claim was just an attempt to bait the wolf, in my mind that fits their character.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:50:29 AMAt the time you also suggested that a counterclaim from you or me wouldn't carry much weight, since we had already spoken out against it in the thread. I asked Specs if he would do it instead, and he declined. Specs verify this please
This is correct. I declined because I had literally just denied being the PNS in the public thread. That would've looked super sus
These are my PMs from E.Gadd:
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 20, 2023, 01:45:42 PMQuestion for you, what are your thoughts on A#? You haven't really said much about her counterclaim for the PNS.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 20, 2023, 02:27:49 PMWell, assuming you are the PNS, I definitely want to help you win before we get the wolf. Regardless of who it is, I'm wanting to not lynch the PNS to give them a win, too. May as well help everyone we can be victorious.
Have you had any communication with A# directly on the matter?
And finally, who do you find most suspicious at the current moment? I thought A#, but now I'm not so sure...
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 21, 2023, 08:56:10 AMGood grief getting ninja'd 11x is not fun. Anyway, Xiao just made a pretty major post pointing at you and A#. I'm still not convinced fully that it's you or her, so in my mind, it could be Xiao assembling something? But at the same time, I don't see that as a desperate wolf since no one has overtly expressed suspicions of them. My worry is it's TZP or Magnet. But for now, I'm holding off on suspicion bc I have a meeting (I'm speedwalking as I type this) but I want to see you respond to Xiao's message.
Also apologies for misreading your most recent PM, reading is really hard :< I'm gonna fight to make sure accuracy is maintained if someone tries to run against you with that first misreading I made.
If you think he's trying to find the PNS maybe he is but it's not me and I've not been working with him to find it. I'm been holding my bluff that I was the PNS
I did also think Egadds suspicion list here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435364#msg435364) where he found no one suspicious was odd
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 10:52:08 AMwarning liberals: do NOT say "PNS" out loud very quickly
PNS destroys wolf with FACTS and LOGIC
E. Gadd sus
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 11:00:20 AMThese are my PMs from E.Gadd:
If you think he's trying to find the PNS maybe he is but it's not me and I've not been working with him to find it. I'm been holding my bluff that I was the PNS
hot damn E. Gadd sus
why did it put it twice :sob:
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 11:38:23 AMwhy did it put it twice :sob:
You are very suspicious of him, which is reasonable. No need to sob XD
That's true. Speaking of which, provisionally, E. Gadd
Are you considering changing your vote, A#?
Didn't I do that already? Not about to check, E. Gadd
can everyone else be wary not to insta I feel like we should allow him time to respond and it's now 3/8 votes on him with 5 to insta
That's a good point, would be funny if Olimar suddenly shows up and instas him
I was about actually to be helpful for once and mention the insta thing. Oh well, too late
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 12:01:17 PMI was about to actually be helpful for once and mention the insta thing. Oh well, too late
Fixed
Gadd coming back from class: :o
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 12:17:21 PMGadd coming back from class: :o
That was how I felt when I woke up to myself being insta'd last game
tbf the game ended like right then so it wasnt as important to read
It was still appalling though
Imagine voting someone because "you like winning"
I've been out and about today. When I get home, I'm going to read through today's activity a little more closely.
im gonna start eating breakfast in about an hour and i probably wont be finished until phase change, just letting you know
me too, im actually still eating yesterdays breakfast
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:56:22 AMOkay but I shared the PM's that THC said me here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435407#msg435407) that shows he actually did believe I was PNS during Night 1. So he didn't just express it to me, he also expressed it to Egadd. Does that answer your suspicion with Egadds post
That does make me feel better to a degree, I suppose? I mean, I floated you and E. Gadd as a potential wolf/PNS combo, so it's not out of the question in that situation that you could have coordinated it. However, reading over your response post to E. Gadd airing out A#'s fake PNS claim, it doesn't actually look that much like you are coordinating behind the scenes (unless it's a deadhand similar to Kai distancing from me last game, in which case it's a very convincing one).
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 10:57:20 AMTZP, what do you think of wolf!E. Gadd and PNS!Toby? I think it's quite possible that A# Minor's initial PNS claim was just an attempt to bait the wolf, in my mind that fits their character.
I think this is plausible, and rereading the thread actually more plausible than PNS!E. Gadd and Wolf!Toby, although I maintain I could see it both ways. I honestly have no idea if A# Minor is actually the PNS, and I'm fine with the lack of certainty about that. We have long since burned through the smokescreen of multiple people claiming PNS, so I think the ambiguity there works in our favor. I want to avoid an insta, but I'd prefer to go for the wolf than the PNS, so I'll switch my vote to E. Gadd later in the phase unless someone convinces me otherwise.
I think where I'm at is that the most suspicious things that have happened this game have been clustered around Toby and E. Gadd (E. Gadd suggesting that humans not use their lynch power, E. Gadd trusting Toby's PNS claim despite it being an ostensible misdirect, E. Gadd publicly justifying this trust by saying that A#'s claim was a red herring). I don't want to read an inordinate amount of meaning into all that, it's certainly possible they're both human, but I don't see better candidates.
We should also talk about how we want to space out our numbers tonight--if we decide to go with a plan rather than random pulls (and I think we should) I don't want to wait till the last minute again and not have everyone on board.
I think I forgot to respond to this one
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 10:56:22 AMOkay but I shared the PM's that THC said me here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435407#msg435407) that shows he actually did believe I was PNS during Night 1. So he didn't just express it to me, he also expressed it to Egadd. Does that answer your suspicion with Egadds post
I don't think this helps your case, it's possible THC accidentally hooked both of you (wolf and PNS) up. That would also explain how you got to know each other and coordinate later on, assuming that's the case.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 01:43:15 PMWe should also talk about how we want to space out our numbers tonight--if we decide to go with a plan rather than random pulls (and I think we should) I don't want to wait till the last minute again and not have everyone on board.
I agree with coordinating, the best step of action is probably to follow Toby's plan again, but for real this time.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 21, 2023, 01:43:15 PMI don't want to read an inordinate amount of meaning into all that, it's certainly possible they're both human, but I don't see better candidates.
I agree, it's not set for sure, especially since we
still haven't heard from Olimar...
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 01:52:46 PMI agree with coordinating, the best step of action is probably to follow Toby's plan again, but for real this time.
Yeah, I'm probably gonna try that too
BUT LET ME HAVE A GOOD NUMBER PLEASE, FOR
I AM NUMBER ONE
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 01:53:40 PMI agree, it's not set for sure, especially since we still haven't heard from Olimar...
I wish pings worked here, so I can spam this thread and ping him like 20 times
OK its breakfast time, bye bye
bon appetit
Some thoughts.
Omilar and Magnet, please give us something lol. Although that would be a funny wolf strategy- set down the controller and walk away while everyone else blows themselves up arguing over suspicions.
On a more serious note, something occurred to me: What does the PNS do if his victory condition is met and he hasn't died? The strategy that we've discussed involves a PNS suicide, but it is very possible that he doesn't die after his victory condition is met. I guess it would be up to him to decide- either take a step back and do nothing, help the humans, or help the wolf (the last two options only if he knows who the wolf is).
A#, you were the first to claim PNS. Regardless of truthfulness, I can see this being a sincere attempt to draw out the wolf. You've mentioned "The wolf should've claimed to me!" multiple times. I read this as either a) you're actually the PNS and you're frustrated that they didn't come forward because it was your path to victory or b) you're a human and you're frustrated that the wolf didn't come forward to team up. What is your stance now? Are you still claiming PNS, or are you admitting to a fake claim in an attempt to draw out the wolf?
Toby, your plan to fake claim PNS checks out to me. Multiple PNS claims prevents the wolf from reaching out, which in turn prevents the PNS+wolf combo. That seems wise. Personally, I don't see that suspicious at all.
Not really sure what to think of E Gadd's behavior thus far. A lot of it involves reading between the lines. If someone with an E Gadd vote wants to explain their choice, I'm all ears.
Xiao and TZP seem to be analyze and reacting to events reasonably- I'd lean human on them.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 01:49:10 PMI think I forgot to respond to this oneI don't think this helps your case, it's possible THC accidentally hooked both of you (wolf and PNS) up. That would also explain how you got to know each other and coordinate later on, assuming that's the case.
You think THC found both the PNS and wolf and paired them together?
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 02:41:56 PMYou think THC found both the PNS and wolf and paired them together?
It's possible, I didn't say it was likely. It merely offers an explanation as to E. Gadd's unfounded accepting of you as PNS
Something else that I thought of.
Toby and A#'s actions thus far have centered around the concept of the wolf and PNS teaming up.
Let's think about this from the wolf's perspective. Say a character comes forward with a PNS claim. In what world is it logical for the wolf to claim wolf via PMs to the suspected PNS? How does this "suspected PNS" prove their identity to the wolf? It's a massive gamble for the wolf to claim. The suspected PNS could easily be a human just fishing for the wolf. I suppose it could be proven during a night phase where the PNS can actually swap number according to plan, but is the wolf really going to take that risk? Unless I'm missing something, I can't see the wolf ever risking claiming to a suspected PNS. The PNS is 3rd party- the wolf doesn't have any clues who it is when the game starts.
Ninja'ed: Reply directed at Toby
And whether you are the PNS or not, it definitely would explain E. Gadd's overenthusiasm in telling you he wouldnt lynch the PNS
I also said I wouldn't lynch the PNS publicly
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 02:44:47 PMIt's possible, I didn't say it was likely. It merely offers an explanation as to E. Gadd's unfounded accepting of you as PNS
I'm pretty sure he probs said the same stuff to A#
Replying to Specs
Issue with that is it makes it near impossible to strategise at this point in time. We have to assume some kind of connections to keep the game flowing and figure out what's going on. But you're right, it's worth keeping in mind that wolf and PNS might not even want to work together at all.
For this reason, I'm quite tempted to vote for Olimar or magnet, but I won't do so just yet. I am off to sleep now, and won't be up until after the phase change. If everyone else decides to change their vote that's fine by me!
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 03:04:03 PMI also said I wouldn't lynch the PNS publicly
I'm probably overthinking things, but that 'definitely' is extremely off-putting. It seems weird for him to be so hung up on this, compared to everyone else.
Also, I forgot, have you voted for anyone?
I was the first to vote and I voted for egadd
Gotcha, thanks
Hm. Cool, I can do more important things then. Gl, humans.
Purposely holding out on voting to allow the accused (E Gadd, specifically) time to respond
Ninja
as the cool kids say here
I'm not going to read all of that bc I'm too lazy and can't be bothered, before someone goes, "buT WhY aREn'T you GOiNg tO DeFEnD YouRseLf?"
It's like 5 pages, I'm tired from a really crappy day, and tbh it works out so I can get out of this game and focus in on what's going to happen with this class I've been assigned to teach while simultaneously being told not to teach it
Was gonna vote for myself to help the count along but I forgot I already did. Peace.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 08:03:47 AMQuestion for host: What does 'last human alive' mean for the PNS? Is this condition met once the wolf has been lynched and there are other humans left, or should there specifically be no (other) humans left?
The "last human alive" victory condition for the PNS only applies if the PNS is the last player alive who counts as human. So if the Head Honcho and the PNS were the last two players remaining at the end of the game, the PNS would achieve victory.
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 21, 2023, 04:24:50 PMI'm not going to read all of that bc I'm too lazy and can't be bothered, before someone goes, "buT WhY aREn'T you GOiNg tO DeFEnD YouRseLf?"
It's like 5 pages, I'm tired from a really crappy day, and tbh it works out so I can get out of this game and focus in on what's going to happen with this class I've been assigned to teach while simultaneously being told not to teach it
Hope everything works out for you okay e gadd,
Feel bad your availability worked out and that you came back to this so close to phase end, but as you say hopefully for the best for you
Thanks. Depending on how long this game lasts, I might not be able to devote time to the next one. Politics in academia suuuuuuck.
Either way, best of luck humans
Current Votecount
1. A# Minor: A# Minor, E. Gadd Industries
2. TheZeldaPianist275: Toby
3. Olimar12345:
4. E. Gadd Industries: E. Gadd Industries
6. SpecsFlyer17:
7. XiaoMigros: Toby, E. Gadd Industries
8. magnet:
9. Toby: E. Gadd Industries
E. Gadd Industries: 4
Toby: 1
5 votes to insta.
Phase ends in a little over 2 hours.
Sorry to hear, E. Gadd. Take care of yourself!
I'll help you out here with a insta E. Gadd bc why not
I have some reading to dooooo
TWG CXV: Just a Numbers GameSpoiler
To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.
Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.
Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher
Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.
Host Clarifications:
- The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
- The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
- The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
- An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
- An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
- The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
- The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
- The game does not have cardflips.
----------
Players:
1. A# Minor
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. Olimar12345
4.
E. Gadd Industries5.
ThatHiddenCharacter6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. magnet
9. Toby
----------
I-I-I-INSTA!!!Gadd was lynched.It is now Night 2. Night 2 ends in one day, on Tuesday, August 22 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).
Magnet as a worthless penalty vote for inactivity ;)
Rip, BDS beat me to the punch
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 05:55:17 PMMagnet as a worthless penalty vote for inactivity ;)
Magnet is now up to 2 honorary votes.Story for Night 2 is up.
Also, a BIG reminder that this phase is only 24 hours (plus the additional ~1 extra hour from the insta). Better get your numbers in quick!
OK, I'm almost done with breakfast, will read this when I'm finished showering with breakfast
Alright, night 2.
I seriously suggest we use a strategy to avoid duplicate picks. 2 non-wolfs have died, so a double kill would be detrimental at this point.
And if everyone keeps to the strategy, a duplicate pick double kill means the PNS was involved.
Since BDS announces the number that the victim(s) chose, a "___ and ____ were wolfed, both with the number x" means the PNS was involved, while a "____ and ____ were wolfed, with the numbers x and y respectively" means an equidistant situation occurred. An equidistant double kill is probably our worst case scenario for this phase.
^ yup. Someone else come up with teh strategy because I don't like math, kthx
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 06:18:23 PM^ yup. Someone else come up with the strategy because I don't like math, kthx
AAAAAHHHHH
Thinking about it a little more, I don't think there's a way to safely prevent equidistant pick potential without allowing the wolf to target people specifically.
The way to prevent equidistant picks is to ensure picks in sequence alternate between even and odd numbers. For example, if sequential picks are 5, 8, and 15 (odd even odd), there's no risk for the wolf getting a double kill. However, we'd have to assign specific ranges for everyone to make this happen, which would allow the wolf to target players specifically. I don't think its even remotely worth it to do so.
Therefore, I think a method similar to last time (9n+ assigned digit) would work out well.
If anyone else has any ideas, speak up for sure.
Aight, now that it's night time foos I may comence my plan to aid my beloved wolf-senpai.
for I... am the REAL Phantom Number Swapper!
Wolf-senpai: I offer you this option: if you select number 50 tonight I will guarantee you a double-kill of both myself and either A#/Toby (I will pick randomly to keep things spicy). If you object to this in anyway or would like to pick a specific player to off, shoot me a dm and we can make this wolfing really spicy!
And I get betrayed. Woo.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 21, 2023, 02:38:57 PMA#, you were the first to claim PNS. Regardless of truthfulness, I can see this being a sincere attempt to draw out the wolf. You've mentioned "The wolf should've claimed to me!" multiple times. I read this as either a) you're actually the PNS and you're frustrated that they didn't come forward because it was your path to victory or b) you're a human and you're frustrated that the wolf didn't come forward to team up. What is your stance now? Are you still claiming PNS, or are you admitting to a fake claim in an attempt to draw out the wolf?
Doesn't matter anymore since Olimar did what I thought he'd do, but I was just trying to get the wolf to claim to me :'(
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 21, 2023, 06:45:03 PMfor I... am the REAL Phantom Number Swapper!
Insert GTA meme:
Ah, s***, here we go again.
So are we still doing 9n+x or...
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 08:31:56 PMSo are we still doing 9n+x or...
Yes, absolutely. I could see the temptation for everyone to scramble to 0 or 100 to get as far away from 50 as possible, and the wolf correctly gambles that'll happen, there could be a multiple kill without even getting rid of the PNS. I would say that it's even more important to stick to a plan now--if Olimar is switching numbers we can't do anything about it, and we should just space ourselves away from each other as best we can
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 01:20:33 PMA# Minor
You pick a number in 9 times table
TheZeldaPianist275
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +1 to final number
Olimar12345
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +2 to final number
E. Gadd Industries
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +3 to final number
ThatHiddenCharacter
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +4 to final number
SpecsFlyer17
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +5 to final number
XiaoMigros
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +6 to final number
magnet
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +7 to final number
Toby
You pick a number in 9 times table and then +8 to final number
Does anyone see a problem with following this plan again?
I will commit to the plan.
i will 2
I have an additional clarification to mention:
The PNS can keep swapping as they please until they die or the game is over, regardless of whether or not they've achieved victory.
We've talked a lot about the PNS suiciding for his win condition... but he doesn't necessarily have to suicide to win. He can simply swap someone to the predetermined wolfing number while picking a entirely different number for himself. It short changes the wolf of a double kill, but it does result in the PNS winning and surviving. Not that he really cares to
Also, there's nothing stopping the PNS from suddenly helping the town after getting their win with the wolf
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 21, 2023, 10:28:12 PMAlso, there's nothing stopping the PNS from suddenly helping the town after getting their win with the wolf
True, although he's useless if he's dead. It would be an ultimate betrayal to the wolf. Pick a different number than 50, survive the night with meeting the victory condition, then rat out the wolf (if he knew anything about the wolf).
Seeing as the wolf has no guarantee who the PNS is, and has no control over the PNS' number, I don't think surviving is that unlikely
come on guys wake up
idk why i want you awake, but wake up anyway
whos you
the master of c7's that sound like the smoke alarm... the pleaser of nobody...
yey people are awake
let us begin speaking
ignore that last post kthx
Well since there are 7 players now we should be choosing numbers using 7n+x
Below would be the new selections
A# Minor 7n+0
TheZeldaPianist275 7n+1
Olimar12345 7n+2
SpecsFlyer17 7n+3
XiaoMigros 7n+4
magnet 7n+5
Toby 7n+6
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 12:28:49 AMWell since there are 7 players now we should be choosing numbers using 7n+x
Below would be the new selections
A# Minor 7n+0
TheZeldaPianist275 7n+1
Olimar12345 7n+2
SpecsFlyer17 7n+3
XiaoMigros 7n+4
magnet 7n+5
Toby 7n+6
Shoot, I submitted my number already *facepalm*
Quote from: A# Minor on August 22, 2023, 12:34:28 AMShoot, I submitted my number already *facepalm*
You can change the one you submitted, dw
Oh yey
I'll be using 7n+x . Can everyone else confirm if they'll be doing the updated plan
I did
I did too
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 12:28:49 AMWell since there are 7 players now we should be choosing numbers using 7n+x
Below would be the new selections
A# Minor 7n+0
TheZeldaPianist275 7n+1
Olimar12345 7n+2
SpecsFlyer17 7n+3
XiaoMigros 7n+4
magnet 7n+5
Toby 7n+6
I don't see an advantage to this over the original plan, but 7 is a prime number so I also don't see a disadvantage, and if everyone is doing it I'll change my number to fit this one
everyone so far seems to be
how about you, magnet?
does anybody know where magnet is?
Can probably track him down with a magnet of opposite polarity
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 22, 2023, 09:09:10 AMI don't see an advantage to this over the original plan, but 7 is a prime number so I also don't see a disadvantage, and if everyone is doing it I'll change my number to fit this one
We have more numbers to choose from with this plan making it more random I guess
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 22, 2023, 10:40:34 AMCan probably track him down with a magnet of opposite polarity
anything to hear from them tbh...
I'll commit to the 7n+x
that leaves magnet and olimar...
WAIT THE PHASE ENDS IN 2 AND A HALF HOURS
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH
and nothing is happening lmao
Not sure there's much to do right now.
We have a strategy for no duplicate picks.
The ball is in Olimar (if he's legit) and the wolf's hand right now.
Olimar, I'd highly suggest you don't suicide. Betray the wolf. Do it.
Do it.
A last minute suspicion list in case I die tonight since it's highly likely
PNS
OlimarVariable
MagnetI doubt he is going to come online before phase end, he hasn't been online for a few days. As of writing this post he hasn't been online yet and it's 2 hours 50 mins before phase end (as of drafting this ). Depending on what the number is tonight depends on if he's a wolf or not for me. Either me or A# is getting swapped to 50 apparently so if 50 isn't the death number then I'm going to assume the number was randomised due to magnet being afk. If 50 is the death number it clears magnet. (this is dependant on him actually coming online before phase end)
Sus
A# MinorI re read A#'s posts and they're the one person this game who I didn't find act like they were actively trying to hunt the wolf through analysing posts/deduction. I gave them a pass initially as I thought they were the PNS but now we realise that's not true. You might wonder why would she false claim PNS and draw unwanted attention to herself as a wolf? Well, the reason could be it wasn't actually her idea - I messaged magnet asking him to fake claim PNS as a distraction to Xiao's claim. He told this to A# and she claimed instead, see this PM exchange between me and A#:
Quote from: Toby on August 21, 2023, 11:22:02 AMDid anyone give you the idea of claiming or did you just think of that yourself ?
Quote from: A# Minor on August 21, 2023, 11:48:31 AMI thought of it myself, but shortly after, magnet sent me the PM that you sent them, which kinda pushed me to do it. @_@
As I mentioned that, I wanted to let you know that I actually discouraged them from false claiming, because I initially found it very strange that you were telling them to do it instead of doing it yourself
So this adds to the possibility that she only claimed as a master plan to "catch the wolf" (look human), and she had PM's to back up this was her intention if she got called out. According to messages from E.Gadd, she admitted she was human to him quite early on rather than holding it out:
Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 21, 2023, 08:49:53 AMOkay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).
ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.
E.Gadd also messaged me to question my PNS claim but I held my claim strong suspicious that E.Gadd could be a wolf and was waiting for him to admit it to me. A# dropped the roose early - is this because she knew E.Gadd wasn't a wolf and wanted to tell someone her plan was just to aid humans?
SpecsFlyerIn comparison to others I have to put Specs at the top, as I don't find they have as redeeming human qualities as the others below. Specs has been helpful with comments relating to the number plan, and also actually slightly came to my defence, saying my PNS fake claim checks out. However, compared to the name below, they haven't stuck their neck out on the line as much as the others, and reading their posts it all feels very neutral. They make subtle hints and nudges but there's never an accusation.
The below post sums up their tone for me a lot:
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 20, 2023, 02:34:07 PMIt is quiet. Everyone must still be eating breakfast.
My big suspicion stems from the double PNS claim. What are some reasons to falsely claim PNS? I can't really think of any besides being a wolf... do we think either A# or Toby is the wolf?
Asking the question to the audience on if the collective thinks A# or Toby is a wolf, and this will look picky, but if you read all their posts, they all give the same vibes. Not wanting to stray from the crowd, not making any initial or unique accusations, asking rather than pointing. It could just be their playstyle but I have to compare them to the others on this list who I feel take a risk and stick their neck on the line to make an accusation to find a wolf
Leaning Human
XiaoI initially found Xiao suspicious particularly n1 as I thought a lot of his posts were waffle/filler/jokes and there was at least one moment where I felt like he skipped commenting on the plan or some event that was happening and made a joke instead. But as the game has went on I've found him less sus. I did call him out for not analysing as much as I would have expected him to, but after the call out I made, he did a fair analysis against me and A# and was the first to make an official accusation. He was the first person to call anyone suspicious (THC) ( doing it twice, here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435211#msg435211) and here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435220#msg435220) and the first to make a big call out post here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435362#msg435362) (against me), and he also was the first to fake claim (although jokingly) the PNS, so he gets human points for being risky there
TheZeldaPianistI was conflicted putting you here but you have done numerous things I would like to say was humany
You objected my number plans with reason, and it really felt you were coming from the best interests of the humans:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 18, 2023, 09:41:09 AMThis is my objection to your plan Toby--multiple wolfings are much more likely to happen via equidistant number picks to the wolf's number than via exact same number picks
You were taking a close look at the rules and really felt like you were thinking for the towns best interest. You even suggested a very similar plan to mine here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435239#msg435239), and referenced the birthday problem here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435148#msg435148) so I do believe your mind was boggling and running wild just like mine trying to think of the best strategy for the humans.
You also make an accusation on me, and believe you were the first to vote me here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435392#msg435392). Which I do find risky and human behaviour to be the first. You also listened and acknowledged my defence and changed your vote. I'm not sure if that's just easily swayed or I genuinely answered your suspicions. You did also suggest the I am Sparticus! plan to me in PM and the tone you used, excited that Xiao may out the wolf was convincing of you being human:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 03:22:36 PMDealing with this in PMs to avoid further attention—I interpreted Xiao's post as a joke and not a sincere claim. If it is a joke and Xiao is just a regular human but the wolf falls for it that would be an INSANE way to end the game Day 1. However if it is a sincere claim—how do you want to handle it? Do the "I am Spartacus" approach and have multiple other people claim PNS to spook the wolf off?
You do lose a human point though because I did find it odd you didn't also do the Sparticus claim, or come to my defence for claiming PNS. However, I do realise I may have confused things as I originally did reply saying I probably wouldn't claim as it wouldn't hold weight
I just checked and magnet still not been online
TWG CXV: Just a Numbers GameSpoiler
To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.
Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.
Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher
Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.
Host Clarifications:
- The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
- The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
- The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
- An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
- An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
- The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
- The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
- The game does not have cardflips.
----------
Players:
1.
A# Minor2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. Olimar12345
4.
E. Gadd Industries5.
ThatHiddenCharacter6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. magnet
9. Toby
----------
A# Minor was wolfed, having picked the number 35.It is now Day 2. Day 2 ends in two days, on Thursday, August 24 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).
35... interesting
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 22, 2023, 07:02:55 PM35... interesting
Wolf did not cooperate with Olimar's plan.
Triple post, but A#'s 35 pick follows the strategy.
I think it's reasonable to say that this was not a PNS related kill.
Day 2 story has been updated. A# had the foresight to ask me to include a special phrase in the story in case she was the one who died. Unfortunately I gave her no guarantees. I think this is a good compromise.
Yo, what? Olimar, who did you switch?
My prediction is Olimar changed Toby to 50, but the wolf didn't buy the plan. A# got unlucky.
Or, Olimar and the wolf communicated in an effort to through us off, picked a new number (35?), and swapped A# to it. Not sure I buy that story though.
Olimar, care to explain?
Response to toby's thoughts:
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 06:57:14 PMPNS
Olimar
I agree. I have DMs to back it up, more on that later
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 06:57:14 PMVariable
Magnet
I agree also. I think it's important to keep in mind that the wolf doesn't actually have to do anything at all to win (theoretically).
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 06:57:14 PMDepending on what the number is tonight depends on if he's a wolf or not for me.
what's to say they changed the number after you said that?
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 06:57:14 PMSus
A# Minor
I completely agree with this too (no original thoughts from me today huh)
In fact, my suspicion of them was so strong I played a little mind games with them in DMs (can provide receipts if needed). Had I died tonight, I could've said with confidence it was her. But here I am.
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 06:57:14 PMLeaning Human
Xiao
Why of course, why would you ever doubt me? Just because I'm chronically online?
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 06:57:14 PMgets human points for being risky there
more on that later
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 06:57:14 PMTheZeldaPianist
I have mixed feelings about TZP, but ultimately I decided yesterday that they were worth saving (more on that later). I won't go as far as to clear them, but it will be interesting to see how they interact with us for the rest of the game.
What numbers did everyone pick?
I picked 90
@Xiao
Quotewhat's to say they changed the number after you said that?
That's why I posted as last minute as I could, 3 mins before phase end. I figured no one would have time to read my post, think of changing, and change their number before then
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 22, 2023, 07:11:03 PMTriple post, but A#'s 35 pick follows the strategy.
I think it's reasonable to say that this was not a PNS related kill.
correct
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 22, 2023, 07:24:19 PMYo, what? Olimar, who did you switch?
You to number 5 lol
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 22, 2023, 07:28:59 PMOlimar, care to explain?
Olimar would probably prefer me to explain, so hear goes:
Quote from: Toby on August 23, 2023, 12:35:32 AM@Xiao
That's why I posted as last minute as I could, 3 mins before phase end. I figured no one would have time to read my post, think of changing, and change their number before then
Right
Bombshell (ish) 2: Electric Boogaloo
Around this time yesterday, A# sends me this:
Quote from: A# Minor on August 22, 2023, 12:18:22 AMAnyway, what do you think about Olimar's claim, and do you think the wolf might trust him? Would it make any sense to try and ask him if he got in touch with the wolf during the day phase? (That isn't my idea, but I just want to get as many opinions as I can.) Honestly I'd be surprised if the wolf actually claimed to him, as I doubt they'd trust anyone after two false claims. (I know I wouldn't.) I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not
Nothing inherently super suspicious, but the part about reaching out seems a little... highlighted, compared to the rest of the contents. This analysis in general is pretty against the cooperation idea for some reason, which could make sense from a town POV but I'd expect a little more uncertainty then. A# was already kinda suspicious to me after their PNS claim, and this just increased my doubts.
I responded with (relevant quotes only):
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 22, 2023, 12:34:06 AMTo first sentence: If he really is the PNS, I guess it's fair game? I'm still tempted to lynch him, just in case, especially if he doesn't end up dying to night (who knows what's going on behind the scenes.
To second sentence: tbh, I've considered pretending to be the wolf and reaching out to him? Though I'm not sure of the benefit of doing that besides making me look sus lol
Telling a potential wolf that I'm gonna reach out as a wolf to the PNS might not seem like a good idea at first, but the main goal was to figure out how A# would react to this info. Here's what they said:
Quote from: A# Minor on August 22, 2023, 01:12:04 AMTo first sentence: I'm thinking almost the same thing. We'd definitely want him gone because they could possibly coordinate double kills and LYLO stresses me out we don't want to end up in LYLO after like 3-4 more phases
To second sentence: The only benefit I see is being able to mess him up completely. But if the real wolf PMs him before you do, then that would be a problem :P so probably not the best idea unless you feel like dying
Advising me against reaching out again seems a little wolfey, but I agree with the last part of the statement.
Because of said risk, I decided to take a chance and reach out to Toby, telling him to keep a close eye on A# if I die. This, in part, is why I think Toby is town leaning: My message to him was sent an hour before phase change and he probably could've coordinated with Olimar to get
someone else wolfed, so I accuse A# the next day and PNS/wolf!Toby survive lynch day. But, it's possible wolf!Toby decided to play solo, or Olimar just wasn't around an hour before phase change, so I can't clear Toby with 100% confidence.
Anyway, on to Olimar: I DMed him without informing A# first, to try to minimise a possible coordination between them. TLDR, I convinced him I was the wolf, and we agreed on the following game plan: Wolf one chosen player tonight, so the PNS meets their win condition. After that, unclaim PNS and try to sow chaos with three people who have claimed PNS (A#, Toby, Olimar).
It's for this reason that I now know the real wolf has not contacted Olimar, and my fears of dying have been mostly alleviated:
Olimar specifically wanted us to keep A# alive, to make the resulting PNS claims situation messier.
I chose the player and the number, and I have no reason to doubt Olimar didn't follow suit; changing TZP's number to 5. I figured this was the best way to keep TZP alive and I was right. You're welcome??, TZP
Why am I revealing all this to the real wolf, you might ask? Because I think the right course of action is to
vote out Olimar. I don't feel comfortable voting for Specs just yet, even though they're top of my suspicion list, because if we're wrong there's a good chance of a double kill happening, leaving the town with perhaps too few people left to figure out what's going on. If anyone has a more compelling strategy, please say!
Seeing as the PNS can only get a guaranteed double kill making
their number the same as someone else's, I guess there isn't that much to worry about in this regard? But still, I think it's fair to want to put an end to a possibly coordinated effort between wolf and PNS, especially since the wolf can then choose who they'd like to kill.
Also, quotes like these hardly flatter:
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 22, 2023, 08:57:10 AMI think it'd be way more fun to mess with humans than to hand them an easy victory, if that helps you feel better about the possibility of me outing you.
Happy to share more details of any conversation, if needed
Specs, what number did you pick?
I don't believe we should actually lynch the PNS today
With 6 players alive - 4 humans, PNS and wolf, regardless of if there is a double kill tonight, we have 2 lynches left.
If there is a double kill tonight we are on day 3 with 3 players.
If there's not a double kill tonight, we are on day 3 with 4 players. But regardless we won't make it to day 4.
We should use our next 2 lynches to target the wolf, and not waste one to kill the known PNS.
If there is a double wolfing, it'll really only come from the PNS dying alongside.
If we get to day 3 with 4 players alive, 2 humans, 1 wolf, 1 PNS. The PNS will likely side with the humans because if the PNS is alive at the end of the game they also win. So they'll be forced to help us lynch a wolf.
We have 2 lynches left regardless, so we may as well use them to find the wolf rather than use one on the PNS.
I don't get why if your plan was to lynch the PNS today anyway why you stopped them from suiciding during the night ? Are you wanting us to waste a lynch ?
What number did anyone pick I've only seen A#s and mine ?
Quote from: Toby on August 23, 2023, 05:06:21 AMAre you wanting us to waste a lynch ?
The main advantage of lynching the PNS is that the wolf then can't choose who they kill. I'm worried that leaving the PNS alive could mean that them and the wolf work together to kill certain players as to cause confusion in the town, like what Olimar wanted to happen today had I been the wolf. Leaving the PNS alive is a security risk; I agree it's not ideal to 'waste' a lynch on them, but what are you proposing in return?
I went with 52. I wanted to get as close to 50 as possible without deviating from the strategy. If I died, it would have told the remaining humans that the wolf likely chose 50 and the PNS did not follow Olimar's plan. With 35 being the wolfing number, we didn't learn anything from it.
I chose 46
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 23, 2023, 05:22:44 AMThe main advantage of lynching the PNS is that the wolf then can't choose who they kill. I'm worried that leaving the PNS alive could mean that them and the wolf work together to kill certain players as to cause confusion in the town, like what Olimar wanted to happen today had I been the wolf. Leaving the PNS alive is a security risk; I agree it's not ideal to 'waste' a lynch on them, but what are you proposing in return?
I believe we should use our 2 remaining lynches to focus on wolves.
If the wolf and PNS work together tonight to guarantee a specific player dies, I think so be it. There's a 25% chance that player would die anyway if it stays random
Does anyone see any reason why the wolf would not have chosen 50?
Only olimar and Xiao was aware that 50 was no longer the double kill number
magnet wasn't online so we know his number was randomised. Do we think that's why 50 was chosen?
Did the wolf want to add chaos and not follow Olimars plan? Maybe they didn't want me or A# dead ?
Again, not that it apparently matters, but my number was 92. Xiao and Specs, if you're telling the truth, mad respect for using yourselves as meat shields to protect the potential double-up on 50.
Xiao, I am struggling to understand your plan here. You told Olimar a) you were the wolf and that b) if he changed my number to 5 but kept his at 50 you would wolf me but keep him alive to maximize confusion around the PNS' identity? Why would Olimar believe you in that case, and why would that lead to increased doubt about the actual identity of the PNS? I was happy A# stuck to the bit as long as she did, but once Olimar claimed it was pretty obvious he was the real deal, since he waited until after a phase where he couldn't have been lynched and didn't demand that the wolf reveal itself. Am I missing something?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 23, 2023, 12:41:49 PMXiao, I am struggling to understand your plan here.
I didn't really have a plan, I didn't go into this situation with the goal of getting a particular outcome. My main goal was actually to try to figure out what was up with A#, but that obviously ended up leading nowhere. Additionally, if the real wolf had already or hadn't yet reached out, I could potentially avoid the wolf getting there way later on.
Quote from: Toby on August 23, 2023, 06:30:42 AMmagnet wasn't online so we know his number was randomised. Do we think that's why 50 was chosen?
Did the wolf want to add chaos and not follow Olimars plan? Maybe they didn't want me or A# dead ?
Why 50 wasn't chosen *
I'm probably lean more towards voting Specs only because Xiao and TZP played more risky in my eyes
oh, HBD BDS--we'll try not to insta anyone today so you can enjoy the day haha
Quote from: Toby on August 23, 2023, 02:31:00 PMI'm probably lean more towards voting Specs only because Xiao and TZP played more risky in my eyes
What's TZP done that's risky?
For the reasons I already said in my suspicion list just before day 2 started
I just have more town lean on TZP than specs. Specs feels too neutral to me
Let the chaos ensue! It is all for my beloved wolf-senpai!!
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 23, 2023, 02:31:37 PMoh, HBD BDS--we'll try not to insta anyone today so you can enjoy the day haha
Many thanks!!! :D
Ahhhh!
I'm so sorry guys! I need to give you my most sincere apologies for not being active! I totally forgot and it's all my fault. So sorry for messing up the game.
To be honest, I'm still not sure who to suspect, and I don't want to throw around any false accusations at this point in the game. :-X
Im curious to hear your side of the story Olimar. Although "wolf-senpai" leads me to believe you'd rather keep things between you and the wolf.
Current Votecount
2. TheZeldaPianist275:
3. Olimar12345:
6. SpecsFlyer17:
7. XiaoMigros: Olimar12345
8. magnet:
9. Toby:
Olimar12345: 1
4 votes to insta.
Phase ends in approximately 24 hours.
All right, everyone has seen the thread, so I feel like I need to share my suspicion list. I see no suggestion that Olimar's PNS claim is not to be believed, so he's not on this.
4. Specs--he is my best friend, this is his first game, and we've had a PM sidebar going since the start of the game. I really think that if he were a wolf I would have caught some kind of indication of this by now. The only wolfy thing I've seen from him is jockeying for A# to say for sure whether she *really* was the PNS, even after pretty much everyone else had arrived at the consensus that the lack of clarity around A#'s claim was a good thing.
3. Xiao--your bombshell plan still kind of confuses me, and it's certainly not something that I would do, but I'm finding it tough to interpret it as a wolf play over a kamikaze human play, and I find you far less suspicious than the next two, so you're still in the "less suspicious" half of my list.
---
1. Toby and Magnet both, tied. The single wolfing makes sense for you two, and as far as I can tell, only for you two. The wolf!Magnet explanation is simple--he just forgot about the game and wasn't online to take advantage of a targeted wolfing. However, if Toby is a wolf, Olimar saying that he might switch Toby to his number to line up a double kill for the wolf puts Toby in a very tight spot. In this case, Toby would not be able to hit 50 with a wolfing without exposing himself, since Olimar's power would fail when used on him, and his only option would have been to hit a different number entirely.
TL;DR the only way I see the missed double wolfing making sense is if the wolf a) didn't see that he had the option to wolf two people or b) the wolf himself was on the chopping block. If a), the wolf is Magnet. If b), the wolf is Toby.
Quote from: Toby on August 22, 2023, 06:57:14 PMMagnet
I doubt he is going to come online before phase end, he hasn't been online for a few days. As of writing this post he hasn't been online yet and it's 2 hours 50 mins before phase end (as of drafting this ). Depending on what the number is tonight depends on if he's a wolf or not for me. Either me or A# is getting swapped to 50 apparently so if 50 isn't the death number then I'm going to assume the number was randomised due to magnet being afk. If 50 is the death number it clears magnet. (this is dependant on him actually coming online before phase end)
Another point in the wolf!Toby column--he very directly started framing an explanation of why the number chosen would implicate Magnet if it wasn't 50 just before the start of the day phase. Obviously this is also something he could do as a human, but if he is a wolf trying to talk himself out of a tight situation, I would expect to see something like this to prime the discussion prior to the reveal of the number that was actually chosen.
Yeah, Toby conveniently fails to account for the most important component in this number-choosing logic..
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 23, 2023, 08:02:20 PMAnother point in the wolf!Toby column--he very directly started framing an explanation of why the number chosen would implicate Magnet if it wasn't 50 just before the start of the day phase. Obviously this is also something he could do as a human, but if he is a wolf trying to talk himself out of a tight situation, I would expect to see something like this to prime the discussion prior to the reveal of the number that was actually chosen.
But I'm not in any tight situation? Any suspicion on me day 1 was revoked. And I actually got a PM during night 2 from Xiao saying he thought I was human.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 23, 2023, 11:48:44 PMYeah, Toby conveniently fails to account for the most important component in this number-choosing logic..
Which is ?
Exactly what TZP said: That only wolf!you (or wolf!A#) wouldn't pick 50 and get a double kill. Unless it's magnet
I have a PM from Olimar claiming to me as well as the claim he made in the topic. If I felt threatened that the plan yesterday could have revealed my wolf identity, I could have easily contact Olimar to swap someone else to a different number and him match that number and I wolf it. Creating a double wolfing on a new number altogether, proving that the wolf and PNS worked together to wolf someone else.
However, from Xiaos chats with Olimar, we can deduct the wolf didn't reach out to Olimar and Xiao was the only one.
To me that tells me either magnet is the wolf and the number was randomised instead of 50
Or I've been leaning Specs, so it's likely possible he simply didn't see the benefit to the PNS being killed, or me. But His lack of trying to point any finger on me today makes me curious though. If the wolf wanted to keep me alive to put suspicion on me today, they probably would have given me a nudge in the topic by now ...
I've been swaying magnet or specs but I don't think we will get very many more words out of magnet to read off of, whereas at least Specs chats and we can read his posts
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 24, 2023, 12:25:28 AMExactly what TZP said: That only wolf!you (or wolf!A#) wouldn't pick 50 and get a double kill. Unless it's magnet
Sorry I guess when I typed up my suspicion list and posted it last minute (setting my alarm for 2:55am) as I predicted I was going to die. I failed to point suspicion towards myself ! Lol
What's the 50 thing bit about? I don't think I understand
See Olimar's #334 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435511#msg435511)
Olimar claimed PNS night 2, he announced to the wolf that he would swap either me or A#s number to 50 so the wolf should pick that number, and olimar would as well which would result in a double kill.
instead A# was wolfed choosing 35, while Xiao and Specs claimed to choose 46/52. So we know the wolf didn't choose 50.
Hench why you are a suspect as your number would have been randomised
Ok that makes sense. But couldn't the wolf just intentionally not pick 50 to frame me? It seems everyone was well aware of my inactivity.
I can't really prove I'm not the wolf, but I would like to think I wouldn't have forgotten to check the forum if I were the wolf ;D
Whoever the wolf is, they've done a good job of setting me up. Looking at you Toby ::)
Yeah I'm the wolf
And I didn't co ordinate with the PNS who claimed to me and the topic just so A# could die, despite putting them at the top of my sus list, and Xiao pming me during night 2 saying they were sus of them
Now I'm left with my 2 weird options for a lynch where 1 was simply afk and the other has been helpful and not entirely wolfy but just simply not enough human for me
If I was the wolf because I would have been forced to stray away from choosing 50 as my number, it would have been best interest to co ordinate with the PNS. And even if Olimar couldn't trust me over Xiao, Olimar could have easily convinced me to follow the plan Xiao gave him and wolf TZP at number 5.
However as olimar didn't die as he wanted it's clear only Xiao was co ordinating with him
Specs said he chose number 52, is that the perfect number to choose when you believe that 1 of 2 people is having their number swapped to 50, but you are actually going to choose a number much less than 50 for the wolfing to confuse things
You don't know what I want!!
You originally wanted me to die I know that, babe!
Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 06:01:41 AMAnd I didn't co ordinate with the PNS who claimed to me and the topic just so A# could die, despite putting them at the top of my sus list, and Xiao pming me during night 2 saying they were sus of them
This doesn't hold up though--there are no targeted wolfings if you don't know the numbers people are picking. So if you are a wolf, I agree that it makes sense for you to keep A# alive to push for a lynch D2, but you might have gotten unlucky and hit her without intending to.
Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 06:06:38 AMIf I was the wolf because I would have been forced to stray away from choosing 50 as my number, it would have been best interest to co ordinate with the PNS. And even if Olimar couldn't trust me over Xiao, Olimar could have easily convinced me to follow the plan Xiao gave him and wolf TZP at number 5.
This is a much more reasonable pushback. I don't think it lets you off the hook entirely though. You certainly COULD have reached out to Olimar and coordinated a different wolfing, but Olimar's original plan let the wolf score a double wolfing without exposing himself--that's what made it clear that his claim was legit. I don't know that it was in the wolf's best interest to directly coordinate with the PNS. Getting a double wolfing without exposing yourself is a sweet deal, but a double wolfing at the cost of a player whose win condition doesn't match yours knowing your identity is much closer to a break-even situation.
If you put a gun to my head right now, I'd rather lynch Magnet than Toby if only because I'd rather lose to Toby playing intelligently than to Magnet pulling a "Luigi wins by doing nothing", to borrow Specs' phraseology. Olimar is certainly an option as well.
If we shoot for a wolf this day phase and we're wrong, the wolf is DEFINITELY going for a double with Olimar tonight. We're down to 3 living players on Day 3. If we lynch Olimar today, the wolf only gets a single kill Night 3, and there are four players alive on Day 3. Possibly even the wolf gets unlucky and hits one of the candidates we're considering for a lynch right now and makes the Day 3 decision that much easier. But it's riskier, and turns the game into a direct manhunt.
Right now, because I don't feel confident in Magnet over Toby or vice versa, I'd lean toward lynching Olimar today. I am open to being persuaded though.
Why would you lynch olimar and then possibly end up with me you and magnet day 3 and you're unsure of us both?
Use your 2 lynches to lynch 2 of your suspicions don't waste one on olimar. The human still have control of 2 lynches whether he's alive or not.
If he makes it to day 3 in a 2 humans, 1 wolf, 1 PNS, high chance he still hasn't met his win condition and will want to side with humans to ensure his survival
Olimar
This feels the safest. I'm pretty sure Olimar is the PNS, but he could be a potential wolf. Lynching the wolf ends the game today, and lynching the PNS prevents a double kill tonight. Both options are at least somewhat favorable.
Going after the wolf solely is a risk. If we mis-lynch, we kill a human and risk an almost certain double kill tonight. That's three deaths. Even though I'm pretty suspicious of Toby (for the reasons TZP stated), don't think it's worth a mis-lynch. Same logic with magnet.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 24, 2023, 09:46:39 AMThis doesn't hold up though--there are no targeted wolfings if you don't know the numbers people are picking. So if you are a wolf, I agree that it makes sense for you to keep A# alive to push for a lynch D2, but you might have gotten unlucky and hit her without intending to.
My point was it could have been a targeted wolfing because me more than anyone would have been more inclined to reach out to olimar if I was the wolf and try target who I wanted to he got his win con and remove my biggest threat
Olimar is not the wolf he's literally the PNS
Use the next 2 lynches to vote off 2 of your top wolf suspicions. Olimar is not a valid wolf suspicion
2 humans won't even die tonight it would be the PNS and 1 human at most. And then the game is a lovely 2vs1
Olimar is literally going to try and suicide again tonight so he can win what is the benefit in lynching him
Toby, that's fair. A mis-lynch plus a human+PNS suicide isn't as bad as I thought.
I'm still hung up on why the wolf didn't bite off of Olimar's 50 plan. It is a fact he didn't pick 50. Assuming Olimar is the PNS, A# and Toby had reasons to not pick 50. Everyone else should've taken the bait and got the double kill. Toby and A# were at risk of being exposed by a failed swap to 50, since Olimar was specifically going to target then. With A# dead, that leaves Toby.
Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 10:14:30 AMOlimar is literally going to try and suicide again tonight so he can win what is the benefit in lynching him
You don
knoooow me!
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 24, 2023, 10:45:18 AMToby, that's fair. A mis-lynch plus a human+PNS suicide isn't as bad as I thought.
I'm still hung up on why the wolf didn't bite off of Olimar's 50 plan. It is a fact he didn't pick 50. Assuming Olimar is the PNS, A# and Toby had reasons to not pick 50. Everyone else should've taken the bait and got the double kill. Toby and A# were at risk of being exposed by a failed swap to 50, since Olimar was specifically going to target then. With A# dead, that leaves Toby.
Are people still on me when I'm literally trying my best to convince the humans to not waste a lynch on PNS 💀
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 24, 2023, 10:48:35 AMYou don knoooow me!
Olimar you could at least try win 😭 everyone wants to lynch you
I'm assuming you haven't won already ?
Either way I think lynching him is the best course of action
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 24, 2023, 12:46:41 PMEither way I think lynching him is the best course of action
Why
What's the benefit
We literally lose a lynch trying to catch the wolf if we do
Getting towards end of phase I'm only going to be up another few hours
Voting magnet as there's too much uncertainty around him and rather he's out now than make it to the last day in lynch or lose
Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 12:52:11 PMWhy
What's the benefit
We literally lose a lynch trying to catch the wolf if we do
Multiple people have explained why, and the benefits
Xiao:
QuoteWhy am I revealing all this to the real wolf, you might ask? Because I think the right course of action is to vote out Olimar. I don't feel comfortable voting for Specs just yet, even though they're top of my suspicion list, because if we're wrong there's a good chance of a double kill happening, leaving the town with perhaps too few people left to figure out what's going on. If anyone has a more compelling strategy, please say!
Seeing as the PNS can only get a guaranteed double kill making their number the same as someone else's, I guess there isn't that much to worry about in this regard? But still, I think it's fair to want to put an end to a possibly coordinated effort between wolf and PNS, especially since the wolf can then choose who they'd like to kill.
The only benefit being to stop the wolf possibly killing who they want tonight ? Which they have a 25% chance of doing anyway? Which would require the wolf to be working with the PNS for to happen - which as I thought you deducted, there's no chance they are working together as of yet ?
If the wolf didn't want to work with the PNS last night why would they change their mind tonight ?
You're worried there will be too few humans left alive if there's a double kill? There will either be 2 humans and a wolf if there's a double kill, or there will be 2 humans, the PNS, and a wolf, in which the PNS' best interest is to side with the humans so that they don't lose dieing to the following night kill.
If we don't lynch magnet today we risk him being in the lynch or lose which requires both humans to work together to make a decision. Going by magnet's track record, we don't even know if he'll be active during that phase
Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 02:09:39 PMXiao:
The only benefit being to stop the wolf possibly killing who they want tonight ? Which they have a 25% chance of doing anyway? Which would require the wolf to be working with the PNS for to happen - which as I thought you deducted, there's no chance they are working together as of yet ?
I would like the wolf to lose as much control over the situation as possible, even if that means lynching someone who probably isn't. Removing the wolf's ability to strategise only helps the town. Besides, there's a non trivial chance that Olimar is a wolf, though I do think that's rather unlikely.
Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 02:09:39 PMIf the wolf didn't want to work with the PNS last night why would they change their mind tonight ?
Why wouldn't they?
Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 02:09:39 PMYou're worried there will be too few humans left alive if there's a double kill? There will either be 2 humans and a wolf if there's a double kill, or there will be 2 humans, the PNS, and a wolf, in which the PNS' best interest is to side with the humans so that they don't lose dieing to the following night kill.
You yourself have been asking if the PNS has perhaps won already, and it's quite possible they might have done. You're not really making much sense here...
Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 02:09:39 PMIf we don't lynch magnet today we risk him being in the lynch or lose which requires both humans to work together to make a decision. Going by magnet's track record, we don't even know if he'll be active during that phase
There's ample time to vote out magnet next time. Besides, active or not, I don't think there's anything magnet can say to help their case, since the suspicion of them being wolf is based largely off their inactivity.
Ample time to lynch magnet?
There's one more lynch after today no matter what
I will go with what others vote for. I belive Olimar already has 2 votes?
2 including yours.
Who are your top wolf suspicions?
I wouldn't mind voting Olimar too.
I vote magnet
Phase ends in approximately 2 hours!
Olimar and Magnet both have 2 votes against them.
Assumptions: Either Olimar or Magnet will be lynched, and Olimar is either the PNS or wolf.
If we lynch Olimar and he's the wolf, the game ends.
If he is the PNS, the wolf gets one random kill on night 3. That brings the total player count to 4, which leaves the wolf and three humans on day 3. Get it wrong there, and humans lose, since the wolfing on night 4 will end the game.
If we lynch Magnet and he's the wolf, the game ends.
If he is a human, things get a bit more complicated. Night 3 will likely be a double kill of the PNS with a targeted human and the PNS. That brings the count to one wolf and 2 humans. Obviously can't afford a mis-lynch there either. However, if the PNS decides to stay alive after his victory condition is met, that leaves wolf, PNS, human, human. And since the wolf just helped the PNS win, that is not favorable for the humans.
I see the main difference being the targeted kill if the PNS is left alive, and the fact that the PNS may survive to force a wolf-PNS-human-human final 4. The game will effectively end after day 3 regardless.
Thats why I think Olimar is the better choice.
^^ I was about to say a bunch of that. Toby, I disagree with your logic here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435670#msg435670). Given that I don't feel certain of a wolf pick right now, I would rather only two humans die in the D2-N3 stretch of time than three humans die. Olimar being killed removes that risk. And Specs is right--if we leave him alive and he hasn't hit his win condition by Day 3, he can only win if he votes with the wolf to make himself the last standing non-wolf, so the Day 3 lynch comes down to a KitB in the best case scenario.
Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 02:09:39 PMIf the wolf didn't want to work with the PNS last night why would they change their mind tonight ?
Also this^^--whatever reason the wolf had for avoiding Olimar last night, it probably doesn't apply tonight. If the wolf is Magnet, he's paying attention to the game now. If it's you, Olimar isn't putting you up to be double-wolfed tonight again. So I think really the only play is to lynch
Olimar today, space our votes carefully during the night, and lynch as judiciously as possible on Day 3.
Magnet, if you are actually a human, we need you active. Don't drop out on us again!
Also very curious why Magnet voting for Olimar prompted Xiao to switch to a Magnet vote.
TWG CXV: Just a Numbers GameSpoiler
To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.
Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.
Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher
Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.
Host Clarifications:
- The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
- The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
- The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
- An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
- An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
- The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
- The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
- The game does not have cardflips.
----------
Players:
1.
A# Minor2. TheZeldaPianist275
3.
Olimar123454.
E. Gadd Industries5.
ThatHiddenCharacter6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. magnet
9. Toby
----------
Olimar was lynched.It is now Night 3. Night 3 ends in one day, on Friday, August 25 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).
Story has been updated in the second post.
Cheers Olimar—see you in the postgame
TZP 5n
Specs 5n + 1
Xiao 5n + 2
Magnet 5n + 3
Toby 5n + 4
Yes?
Sure thing
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 24, 2023, 06:30:16 PMAlso very curious why Magnet voting for Olimar prompted Xiao to switch to a Magnet vote.
I went to sleep and didn't want anyone to be insta'ed
And if y'all ended up voting for magnet, I didn't want my vote to be stopping you
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 24, 2023, 08:20:24 PMCheers Olimar—see you in the postgame
TZP 5n
Specs 5n + 1
Xiao 5n + 2
Magnet 5n + 3
Toby 5n + 4
Yes?
Yep
Tomorrow there will be 4 humans alive
Probably in best interest to no lynch so that the wolf removes 1 at random and brings it to a 2v1 lynch of lose
Good point, I agree
I'll do the 5n+x plan.
Just a rules explanation, if no one votes, is there no lynching? Opposed to being a tie at 0 and it being random?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 25, 2023, 04:02:32 PMJust a rules explanation, if no one votes, is there no lynching? Opposed to being a tie at 0 and it being random?
Full disclosure: when I designed this game, I didn't intend for no lynch to be an option, but for the sake of fairness (having not released a clarification when it was brought up as an option earlier) I'm inclined to allow it as an option. For future hosts, it would be a good idea to clarify if no lynch is an option before the start of the game.
However, in order to go through with a no lynch, players have to explicitly vote
no lynch. A no lynch can insta if more than 50% of the players vote for it, and can also KitB if it has equal votes with another player.
Also a reminder: TWO HOURS until phase end!!!
Talk me through the no-lynch rationale. All that effectively does is give the wolf two kills before the day phase, which is what we have been trying to avoid this whole time. Pro: it removes a possible candidate for wolf. Con: it gives the wolf a smaller margin required for victory and takes away a vote from the humans. Is there a clear advantage conferred by that?
TWG CXV: Just a Numbers GameSpoiler
To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.
Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.
Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher
Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.
Host Clarifications:
- The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
- The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
- The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
- An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
- An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
- The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
- The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
- The game does not have cardflips.
----------
Players:
1.
A# Minor2. TheZeldaPianist275
3.
Olimar123454.
E. Gadd Industries5.
ThatHiddenCharacter6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8.
magnet9. Toby
----------
Magnet was wolfed, having picked the number 54.It is now Day 3. Day 3 ends in two days, on Sunday, August 27 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).
Narrator: Luigi did not win by doing absolutely nothing
Day 3 story was updated in the second post. In case anybody was wondering, I write a generic story ahead of time and then fill in any details as necessary (name, number, etc.) after the phase ends. :P
80 for me. Not that it matters a whole lot.
Im a little confused by the no-lynch still. I suppose it allows for a 1v2 scenario on day 4... but is that preferable to having two oppertunities to lynch the wolf?
It doesn't give us two opportunities to lynch the wolf. In both cases we have one opportunity, the question is just whether we're trying to lynch the wolf with three humans or two.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 25, 2023, 07:10:47 PMIt doesn't give us two opportunities to lynch the wolf. In both cases we have one opportunity, the question is just whether we're trying to lynch the wolf with three humans or two.
You're right, may bad. I suppose it makes sense since it will lower the odds. Assuming random voting, 25% chance today, 33% tomorrow. In non-random context, it removes one player as a source to be suspicious of.
However if we do make it to day 4, the wolf just needs to convince one human fasley. Thats it. Today if he does that, its at least that would be only 50% of the vote.
I am so glad magnet got wolfed lol
If we no lynch then yeah assume random voting we have a greater chance of getting the wolf tomorrow.
It doesn't really matter having one less human we still need a majority or at least 2 to overpower the wolf.
We all should post a suspicion list today
I'll do an updated one irl tomorrow because it's my bday and I'm out tonight won't be on my pc
But I'm sure at least one of you are get to post a suspicion list this game
Quote from: Toby on August 26, 2023, 04:31:26 AMI'll do an updated one irl tomorrow because it's my bday and I'm out tonight
ayo august birthdays
Happy birthday!
Yeeeeaahh honestly I'm not really buying the arguments for a no lynch. It may be true that it removes a person as a possible wolf, but it also removes that person from being able to vote, and it means that the wolf only needs to convince one other person to vote his way. More humans means we have a wider margin for error--why would we avoid that? By your logic, why would we EVER lynch someone if we're not certain?
My suspicion list is the same as it was earlier: Toby>Xiao>Specs. I feel like it's a little more plausible for it to be Xiao than I did last day phase. But I still think that it's probably Toby, and this strat seems like a hailmary to make it easier to get out of the hot seat. Happy birthday though.
This is how I see it: we were trying so hard to avoid two humans dying N3. But if we skip D3, and N3 and N4 both register a night killing before D4, that's essentially the same as if we lost two people during the night phase anyway. I agreed with Toby's logic earlier in the game that lynching is the humans' best power and we should use it, and I agree with it now. Going back on that rationale seems very wolfy to me.
Also I just realized: Magnet didn't follow the number picking scheme again lol
Phase ends in approximately 24 hours!
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 26, 2023, 01:05:49 PMYeeeeaahh honestly I'm not really buying the arguments for a no lynch. It may be true that it removes a person as a possible wolf, but it also removes that person from being able to vote, and it means that the wolf only needs to convince one other person to vote his way.
So what? Toby is my prime candidate also but I don't see how a no lynch hurts us here. If everyone lists their suspicion lists today (mine is toby>specs>tzp) we can just stick to those after someone else gets wolfed. it only increases our odds..
The wolf needs to convince at least one person to vote their way regardless
Removing one player as a possible wolf is massive lol
The reason why a no lynch at the start of the game wasn't beneficial is because it was unpredictable how that would affect the rest of the game.
Does anyone want to say why they think I'm the wolf cause honestly I feel like I've suggested every plan to benefit the humans and hinder the wolf and it's at the point where it's not even reverse psychology. I can't be a wolf just trying to look good because if I was the wolf I could have made the game a lot easier for myself. For example, lynching olimar yesterday and banking on lynching magnet today would have been an easy win condition for me, but I was hell bent on lynching magnet first, letting olimar die in the night and then I'd have to sway 3 people who probs have me at the top of their list to vote one of themselves. It just makes the game a lot harder for me rather than staying uncontroversial and making the game easier for myself lol.
Also magnet died picking 54. If I was a wolf i needed magnet alive and would have predicted him being too inactive to send in a number and his being randomised. Using psychology probability id figure most players would probably go for a number as far to the end of the scale as they could, so I'd pick somewhere 0-10 or 90-100 to try get them. Using psychology probability id have a better chance of getting one of you guys using that strategy
care to provide a suspicion list, then?
same goes for you specs
it would be specs > olimar > xiao for me rn
I see the benefit of no-lynching tonight.
If we no don't no-lynch, the wolf needs to convince one person to force a 50-50 split, which will result in a random pull. Not ideal. If we do no-lynch, he still needs to convince one person to win on Day 4. That's not as good as the 50-50 split, but it's not a huge benefit.
The benefit of removing one player on Night 4 throws the balance towards the no-lynch option today, imo. Whoever gets wolfed on N4 is no-longer a factor in the Day 4 lynching discussion. I think there's a lot of benefit to narrowing the suspicion list. Speaking of that...
1. Toby - I'm still thinking about Night 2, where only you and A# had the obvious benefit of not following Olimar's plan. Of course, you could have known that, but A# was in the same boat, so you could've just framed that on her if she survived. She didn't (which was pure chance), which took away that escape. Additionally, you were very insistent of not lynching Olimar. I read that as you trying to protect the PNS in exchange for the doublekill+targeted kill and PNS win condition. That being said, you've suggested a lot of strategies and theories that lean human. Definitely more so than Xiao, imo.
2. Xiao - Definitely a lot more neutral and less suggestive of strategies imo, but I have no concrete evidence to suggest you being a wolf. You and I have a few PMs discussing Toby's potential reasons to not follow Olimar's plan, which you seem to buy once it clicked with you. Could be legitimate human play, could be you just jumping on momentum to frame Toby.
3. TZP. I have the most PMs with you, and they all lean human. Again, it could just be master deception, but all the strategies and theories check out. Really not anything here to suggest wolf play.
By design, information is at a premium in this game, it seems. I think it's entirely reasonable for the wolf to get away with teaming up with no one, trying to fly under the radar, and relying on slowly chipping away at humans. Not a whole lot of defense to play. Example, magnet was at the top of our suspicion list and he was literally doing nothing.
Also, apologies for the relative inactivity. I was out of state doing some house hunting.
Quote from: Toby on August 27, 2023, 11:35:54 AMit would be specs > olimar > xiao for me rn
TZP instead of Olimar, right?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 27, 2023, 11:45:49 AMTZP instead of Olimar, right?
yes lol oops
specs > TZP > Xiao
If I am outvoted on the no lynch thing, I'll go along with it. Not all three of you can be wolves lol, and this is more of a general strategy thing than a tell on someone's identity, so I don't see a point in digging in my heels, I guess. I stand by what I said though, and it will be something to discuss in postgame!
Toby, my reason for leaning toward you is the same thing that Specs said. Responding to this:
Quote from: Toby on August 27, 2023, 05:35:13 AMI was hell bent on lynching magnet first, letting olimar die in the night and then I'd have to sway 3 people who probs have me at the top of their list to vote one of themselves.
You were hell-bent on lynching Magnet and keeping Olimar *alive* into the night phase. Lynching Magnet was the right play for you whether you were a human or a wolf, since several of us had interpreted the wolfing in a such a way that it was either you or him, and your logic for why it could be him was the same as mine. But IIRC you never seriously engaged with our reasoning to remove the Olimar threat before he could coordinate a double wolfing again, and "letting olimar die in the night" could just as easily have been "let Olimar suicide bomb a human down with him."
Quote from: Toby on August 27, 2023, 05:35:13 AMAlso magnet died picking 54. If I was a wolf i needed magnet alive and would have predicted him being too inactive to send in a number and his being randomised. Using psychology probability id figure most players would probably go for a number as far to the end of the scale as they could, so I'd pick somewhere 0-10 or 90-100 to try get them. Using psychology probability id have a better chance of getting one of you guys using that strategy
Also, what? Magnet had just tagged back in, and said he'd be more active when I told him we needed him. Why would that make you think he wouldn't send in a number?
No lynch unless one of you changes your mind--still not my preference
Well, no lynch is my preference, so that's what I'll be voting for. That said, specs and tzp, just remember that we all would otherwise be voting Toby rn
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 27, 2023, 11:45:03 AM1. Toby - I'm still thinking about Night 2, where only you and A# had the obvious benefit of not following Olimar's plan. Of course, you could have known that, but A# was in the same boat, so you could've just framed that on her if she survived. She didn't (which was pure chance), which took away that escape. Additionally, you were very insistent of not lynching Olimar. I read that as you trying to protect the PNS in exchange for the doublekill+targeted kill and PNS win condition. That being said, you've suggested a lot of strategies and theories that lean human. Definitely more so than Xiao, imo.
The thing is though I was around at the end of night 2 upto the last minute. I put A# at the top of my suspicion list and had a PM from Xiao a few hours before phase end saying they were suspicious of A#. If I was a wolf, highly likely I also would not have followed Olimar's plan, but I also would have wanted to try avoid A# dying as best as I could.
I had no private communication with Olimar night 2, and as far as I was aware either me or A#'s number was getting swapped to 50. Therefore, it would have been in my best interest to choose a number far from 50 as there was half a chance A# was going to be 50, but A# died on 35 so we know the wolfing number was around then. Therefore I don't think the wolf wanted to buy into Olimar's plan exactly, but actually wasn't too bothered about me or A# dying. It's actually possible the wolf wanted to choose a number close to 50 so they'd get that double kill, but also wanted to see if they could sneak in a triple kill with an equal distant tie. However, whatever number they choose was closest to A#s 35 rather than 50
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 27, 2023, 12:53:03 PMToby, my reason for leaning toward you is the same thing that Specs said. Responding to this:You were hell-bent on lynching Magnet and keeping Olimar *alive* into the night phase. Lynching Magnet was the right play for you whether you were a human or a wolf, since several of us had interpreted the wolfing in a such a way that it was either you or him, and your logic for why it could be him was the same as mine. But IIRC you never seriously engaged with our reasoning to remove the Olimar threat before he could coordinate a double wolfing again, and "letting olimar die in the night" could just as easily have been "let Olimar suicide bomb a human down with him."
The only threat olimar had alive was the chance the wolf wanted to co-ordinate with him to wolf a specific player. And I don't believe anyone here is leaning strong town on anyone so even if the wolf got his pick of a kill, I don't believe it would have been that damaging.
The benefit of not lynching olimar is that we could use the next 2 lynches to remove our top 2 suspects. Luckily Magnet was wolfed, so our top suspect managed to die anyway. But if Magnet didn't die we'd probably be lynching him right now and then we'd have lost the game? We still have a chance to win now only because we lucked out on the wolfing
QuoteAlso, what? Magnet had just tagged back in, and said he'd be more active when I told him we needed him. Why would that make you think he wouldn't send in a number?
magnet only posted right after the phase end and didn't show any activity after that. he didn't even follow the number plan so I wouldn't be surprised if his number was randomised again
Also I have all this suspicion on me because the wolf didn't follow Olimar's plan night 2
but are you forgetting I received the 2nd most votes day 1? The wolf probably didn't want me to die, and if they keep Olimar alive then that was a lynch to waste on not the wolf, and they survive another day
Sounds like a win win for the wolf, and honestly why TZP has went up on my suspicion list considering they placed the first vote for me day 1, and believe they first suggested the lynching of Olimar. TZP already had a suspicion against me and not really one on anyone else, so wolf TZP would not have benefitted in following Olimar's plan
hopefully our suspicions can be alleviated through a random lynch tomorrow
No Lynch
As mentioned, there isn't a significant benefit with the 1v3 opposed to the 1v2, so I think no lynch is the move today. We'll see who gets offed night 4 and go from there.
I don't think we should have instad but oh well
why not? no lynching was your idea
yeah but insta just cuts the game shorter does it not?
I'll update as soon as I get on my computer.
I don't see why cutting it short is a bad thing? There's been a lot less discussion these past few days and I think we're all fairly set in our viewpoints
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 27, 2023, 12:53:03 PMBut IIRC you never seriously engaged with our reasoning to remove the Olimar threat before he could coordinate a double wolfing again, and "letting olimar die in the night" could just as easily have been "let Olimar suicide bomb a human down with him."
I don't understand this, I did seriously engage with your reasoning and provided many counter arguments to it. I could quote at least 5, it's nearly all I engaged with the whole of day 2?
Have you not been looking back at my posts to analyse?
Or have you but you just disagree still that I was engaging in the topic of removing the olimar threat
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 27, 2023, 03:50:33 PMI don't see why cutting it short is a bad thing? There's been a lot less discussion these past few days and I think we're all fairly set in our viewpoints
I feel like there has been a lot of discussion? Your posts have been quite short though, I don't recall you saying any reasoning for any of your suspicions today
If the main suspicion on me is because Olimar's plan wasn't followed by the wolf - do you see how easy it has been for the wolf to frame me?
But also why would the wolf want me dead when TZP and Xiao were voting me the previous day anyway
Quote from: Toby on August 27, 2023, 04:09:00 PMYour posts have been quite short though, I don't recall you saying any reasoning for any of your suspicions today
That's because I don't have anything to add in terms of my suspicions, they haven't really changed
What do we think about the whole Xiao claiming wolf to Olimar and then convincing everyone to vote for Olimar the next day?
Imo it's far beneficial to the wolf for the humans to spend 1/3 of their lynches on someone else, and if Xiao can do that while having PM's where he only pretends to be wolf to 'trick' Olimar into going for a plan, but then it doesn't go ahead because Xiao 'isnt' the wolf and then he shows off PMS to 'prove' he wasn't the wolf. And then gets humans to be scared of the wolf and PNS working together so they waste a lynch? No one else think that could be a big elaborate plan to prove humanity?
Either me or A# was supposed to die that night and I think there were generally questions marks on both of us from everyone. Keeping us in the game would help to blend in
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 27, 2023, 11:45:03 AM2. Xiao - Definitely a lot more neutral and less suggestive of strategies imo, but I have no concrete evidence to suggest you being a wolf. You and I have a few PMs discussing Toby's potential reasons to not follow Olimar's plan, which you seem to buy once it clicked with you. Could be legitimate human play, could be you just jumping on momentum to frame Toby.
3. TZP. I have the most PMs with you, and they all lean human. Again, it could just be master deception, but all the strategies and theories check out. Really not anything here to suggest wolf play.
does anyone care to share these PM's? Maybe it has all been covered in topic but I'm getting the feeling things are being unaddressed
TWG CXV: Just a Numbers GameSpoiler
To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.
Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.
Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher
Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.
Host Clarifications:
- The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
- The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
- The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
- An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
- An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
- The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
- The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
- The game does not have cardflips.
----------
Players:
1.
A# Minor2. TheZeldaPianist275
3.
Olimar123454.
E. Gadd Industries5.
ThatHiddenCharacter6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8.
magnet9. Toby
----------
Nobody was lynched.It is now Night 4. Night 4 ends in one day, on Monday, August 28 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).
Story was updated.
I'll take the hit on the insta, I lost situational awareness on how many votes there were.
Quote from: Toby on August 27, 2023, 04:27:15 PMWhat do we think about the whole Xiao claiming wolf to Olimar and then convincing everyone to vote for Olimar the next day?
So are you suggesting Olimar got the win condition on Night 2 by swapping A#? If that's the case, why would wolf!Xiao try to get Olimar lynched? What benefit does that serve the wolf? Seems like a non-PNS human would have been a better choice.
The more I think about it, the "Toby was the only one that couldn't pick 50" theory could have been foreseen by anyone. Xiao, TZP, or I (as wolves) could have worked with the PNS to target A# at 35 behind the scenes, knowing that Toby would look the most suspicious (since Olimar had offered to target either A# or Toby). While the double kill at 50 would have had the biggest immediate positive impact for Xiao, TZP, and me, setting up Toby (or A# if Toby was the one to be wolfed) could have been a reason to pass on it.
For what it's worth, it was originally TZPs idea back on Day 2:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 22, 2023, 07:31:05 PMI have a different explanation than the one you suggested in the thread but I absolutely do not want to go public before I hear from Olimar--if Toby is the wolf, and he knew that there was a good chance that Olimar would switch him, he wouldn't be able to wolf 50 without revealing himself.
And I shared it with Xiao later that day:
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 23, 2023, 06:12:39 AMLet me know what you think of this:
Exactly two players had something to lose last night by picking 50 as the wolf: Toby and A#. Assuming Olimar was not lying about his plan, I see no reason for any other wolf to not pick 50- its a double kill, or at the very least a targeted single kill if Olimar jumped away from 50 to survive.
But Toby or A# as wolfs picking 50 would be foolish. Say Toby picked 50 as the wolf, knowing that Olimar is going to swap either Toby or A# to 50 as well. What happens when Olimar is the only one to die? All evidence points at a failed swap of the wolf to 50. Toby and A# had every reason to not pick 50 to avoid being exposed by a failed PNS swap, since we all knew Olimar was targeting one of those two.
Tldr, everyone besides Toby (A# died so she wasn't the wolf) as wolf should've picked 50, while Toby would have had a good reason not to. I can say with confidence that the wolf did not pick 50, as I picked 52 and survived.
What do you think?
Other option is Magnet is pulling a "Luigi wins by doing absolutely nothing" lol
Who then initially questioned it, but then bought it:
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 23, 2023, 08:45:06 AMI'm not sure I follow, as there's absolutely no reason the number chose has to have been 50.
Olimar was able to choose any number for both himself and another chosen player, meaning it could easily have been changed at any time, so long as he and the wolf both knew about it. Basing your entire case off of '50 or not' doesn't really help it I'm afraid, I'll need further explanation from you if you're serious about Toby.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 23, 2023, 08:54:44 AMWAIT
I see your point now, and I can confirm the wolf did not pick 50, because I actually picked 51. It's also a little odd that Toby's supposed number happens to be right at the other end of the spectrum, almost like he knew.. I know TZP's number was 5, since that's what I asked Olimar to change it to. You're right, it's almost certainly Toby or magnet, or maaaybe Olimar too.
To sum up, TZP came up with the idea, shared it with me, who then shared it with Xiao. Xiao initially didn't understand, but it later clicked. Legitimate gears turning, or clever deception to make me think he didn't know all along?!
There's also the possibility of the wolf literally picking numbers at random with 0 strategy at all. In that case, we're running circles around ourselves here.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 27, 2023, 07:12:44 PMThe more I think about it, the "Toby was the only one that couldn't pick 50" theory could have been foreseen by anyone.
thats the main reason I'm suspicious of you
Why does that make Specs in particular suspicious ?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 27, 2023, 05:58:09 PMI'll take the hit on the insta, I lost situational awareness on how many votes there were.
So are you suggesting Olimar got the win condition on Night 2 by swapping A#? If that's the case, why would wolf!Xiao try to get Olimar lynched? What benefit does that serve the wolf? Seems like a non-PNS human would have been a better choice.
No I don't think Olimar met his win condition. I'm suggesting that the wolf getting the humans to use 1/3 of their lynches on anyone other than themselves is a great strategy. And I believe convincing people to vote the PNS is an easy option.
Further, since the wolf didn't follow Olimar's plan, that raised 3 lynch candidates right away, and seems to be the direction most people wanted to follow in lynching- Olimar, myself or magnet. So it's really easy to see why not following Olimars plan was a greater benefit to the wolf than following it
Also I guess for numbers tonight we should be going
TZP: 4n+0
Xiao 4n+1
Specs 4n+2
Toby 4n+3
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 28, 2023, 12:15:36 AMthats the main reason I'm suspicious of you
I mean, I'm calling out everyone here. If you're going to be suspicious of one person based on that alone, it was TZPs idea originally.
I'll commit to the 4n+x strategy.
TZP real quiet lately
I do find it really sus for TZP to be so against the No lynch strategy which obviously benefits the humans and hurts the wolf
Quote from: Toby on August 28, 2023, 02:28:56 PMI do find it really sus for TZP to be so against the No lynch strategy which obviously benefits the humans and hurts the wolf
Yeah, I'd like to hear from TZP again on why he thought no-lynch was a poor choice.
Sorry everyone, been out all day--will hopefully tag in before phase end to say something more substantive in case I'm not alive for day 4. Re: the no lynch strat goes, no, it does not obviously benefit the humans, and I'm not sure what you want me to say in addition to the argument I already laid out
I think it makes you look like a wolf wanting better odds of surviving the lynch
Seeing things in a new light today.
Specs is considering other options despite me being at the top of everyone's suspicion list and I believe he's actually possibly the only player this game who's defended me so I actually have some human points to give him now
TZP on the other hand has been planting the seed through the game that just because the wolf didn't follow olimars pick 50 plan, it must be either me or magnet as a wolf - and not seeming to budge from the possibility of anything else
I gave TZP human points before as I thought him voting me early on day 1 was quite a risk but I looked at his previous game where he was a wolf and he did the exact same thing with olimar day 1 so I'm taking that back
I also find his reluctance to No lynch very strange and even stranger that he was the first to officially vote no lynch despite not agreeing with it. As if just to say hey I didn't agree but I'm on your side humans I'll vote with u
One thing that I was giving TZP big human points was his energy with this PM he sent me back at night 1:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 19, 2023, 03:22:36 PMDealing with this in PMs to avoid further attention—I interpreted Xiao's post as a joke and not a sincere claim. If it is a joke and Xiao is just a regular human but the wolf falls for it that would be an INSANE way to end the game Day 1. However if it is a sincere claim—how do you want to handle it? Do the "I am Spartacus" approach and have multiple other people claim PNS to spook the wolf off?
But come day 1 I followed the I am Spartacus plan and he didn't. (I do get I did originally said I don't think it would work for me to do it since I was so vocal regarding the PNS night 1) but I still found it extremely odd to receive a vote from him for claiming PNS and not connecting any dots that I was just trying to stop the wolf contacting with A# who I thought was PNS.
Last games post game he also made reference to only 1 mis lynch being strong for the wolves. And yet this game because we used a lynch on olimar we've only allowed ourselves 1 mislynch again (since I wouldn't count olimar as a lynch used for the wolf). So I would have thought if he was human this game there might have been a reflection to how the uses of lynch played out last game, and considered there being a benefit to not lynching olimar, but he jumped on Xiaos train of thought and stuck to it.
Approximately 2 hours until the phase end!!!
I did not vote you D1 because you claimed PNS--I voted for you D1 because you were jockeying for PNS claims the night before. (or maybe on D1, I forget exactly when the timing was) That was the wolfiest thing I had seen up to that point in the game. I didn't follow the "I am Spartacus" plan
for the exact same reason you didn't--how can you accuse me of that being wolfy? I did ask one other player with whom I had been talking to do that, at your suggestion, and he declined.
I'm not sure how else to say this: skipping the day 3 lynch gives the wolf proportionally more influence in a final head-to-head. Yes, it removes one person from the pool, and that's a nonzero amount of information that will be helpful to us. It still comes at the expense of a much riskier final vote, because the way we decided to play it, two votes is an insta, and it would not have been that way before. If Toby is indeed a wolf, bumping off one bonus human means that he only needs to convince one other person to vote with him against someone--me, apparently.
Quote from: Toby on August 28, 2023, 03:51:31 PMand not seeming to budge from the possibility of anything else
This is absolutely putting words in my mouth--I just said Xiao was plausibly a wolf, and I also have been consistently saying that I'm not 100% on you.
TWG CXV: Just a Numbers GameSpoiler
To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.
Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.
Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher
Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.
Host Clarifications:
- The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
- The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
- The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
- An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
- An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
- The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
- The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
- The game does not have cardflips.
----------
Players:
1.
A# Minor2. TheZeldaPianist275
3.
Olimar123454.
E. Gadd Industries5.
ThatHiddenCharacter6.
SpecsFlyer177. XiaoMigros
8.
magnet9. Toby
----------
Specs was wolfed, having picked the number 18.It is now Day 4. Day 4 ends in two days, on Wednesday, August 30 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).
Forgot to mention, but the story was updated!
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 28, 2023, 06:55:37 PMI just said Xiao was plausibly a wolf, and I also have been consistently saying that I'm not 100% on you.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 26, 2023, 01:05:49 PMMy suspicion list is the same as it was earlier: Toby>Xiao>Specs. I feel like it's a little more plausible for it to be Xiao than I did last day phase. But I still think that it's probably Toby, and this strat seems like a hailmary to make it easier to get out of the hot seat. Happy birthday though.
This is how I see it: we were trying so hard to avoid two humans dying N3. But if we skip D3, and N3 and N4 both register a night killing before D4, that's essentially the same as if we lost two people during the night phase anyway. I agreed with Toby's logic earlier in the game that lynching is the humans' best power and we should use it, and I agree with it now. Going back on that rationale seems very wolfy to me.
I just see u ranking Xiao as number 2 on a 3 person list, I don't see you suggesting anywhere I'd be anything but number 1
Bit disappointed specs died.
I went for 51 as I didn't mind myself dying since I was appearing on the top of 2 suspicion lists
Reminder to everyone not to vote as the wolf can insta any vote
Also not to vote today let's wait for irl tomorrow
QuoteI'm not sure how else to say this: skipping the day 3 lynch gives the wolf proportionally more influence in a final head-to-head. Yes, it removes one person from the pool, and that's a nonzero amount of information that will be helpful to us. It still comes at the expense of a much riskier final vote, because the way we decided to play it, two votes is an insta, and it would not have been that way before. If Toby is indeed a wolf, bumping off one bonus human means that he only needs to convince one other person to vote with him against someone--me, apparently.
In a game where the wolfings are randomised, it is far beneficial to limit the pool for a lynch and allow another player to be randomly removed. The wolfings so far have been A#, magnet and specs, all who had suspicion on them at some point and possibly could have been lynched. Allowing another player at random be wolfed helps humans for the final vote.
Sure the wolf only needs to convince 1 person to vote the other way but I think that trade off is far worth it.
I'm not sure where I'll vote today yet I need to go back and analyse you both AGAIN
My gut feeling night 1 was Xiao. My gut feeling night 4 was TZP. I don't think you both have said much against each other this game so would be interesting to see your views. I'll take a look through your posts when I finish work today
Sorry if I've been a little inactive these past hours, I'll try looking over stuff again this evening (ca. 5-6 hours)
My reads on the remaining players:
Xiao: a lot of easy agreement posts. If this was all there was to it I'd say there was a good chance you were a wolf trying to coast by letting the most vocal players bounce off each other and tear each other to pieces. But there was also that wolf claim to Olimar, and that doesn't synergize well with a more passive playstyle as a wolf. I'd put that as a point in the human!Xiao column.
However, you cottoned immediately onto Toby's lynch-skip plan, without seemingly examining the case to be made either for or against. I disagreed with it, and I remain bothered by how neatly Toby's suspicion posts of me followed from me stating a pretty reasonable case for why I thought it was a bad idea, but at the very least Toby gave substantive reasons for why he thought it was a good idea--it seemed like you just wanted to gloss over most of that debate iirc.
----
Toby: We have been largely opposed to each other in terms of strategy the whole game: first over whether the PNS should claim, then over whether we should lynch the PNS, and now finally over whether we should have lynched anyone at all on D3. I'm bothered by the fact that you are only now suggesting that I am untrustworthy for disagreeing with you over strategy, when in fact I've been pretty consistently disagreeing with you over strategy since the start. All this is in addition to the N2 double wolfing duck being convenient for you, as well as the fact that your recent posts stating your suspicion on me are pretty weak? Up to and including accusing me of not doing something that you explicitly said it wouldn't make sense for us to do?
Human points on Toby are that outside the things that we disagree on, his leading of the dialogue has been largely pretty helpful for the humans--the N1 number schemes especially stand out as things that he was doing thoughtfully.
---
So my lean right now is Toby for the consistent thread through the game, namely that while getting there were certainly merits to getting the PNS to claim, to not lynching the PNS, and no skipping the day 3 lynch, I still feel comfortable saying that those are all plans that are not best for the humans, and if he is a wolf, the no lynch scheme worked like gangbusters in his favor to draw final battle lines. I have an easier time placing myself in the mind of wolf!Toby than wolf!Xiao
Also to let you guys know the timing of my vote in good faith--I agree that we should wait till tomorrow irl to cast votes, but I have plans tomorrow evening and probably won't be able to wait till the very last minute, as often happens. So I'll hold out on voting for now but I won't have a choice by tomorrow late afternoon.
I do have to confess TZP I actually don't inherently find you opposing the no lynch strategy suspicious. In fact my initial opinion of it was inclined to give you human points for going against the grain. However, I've mentioned giving human points for people going against the grain earlier this game (I believe to yourself and Xiao?) so I wanted to test if you were doing it purposefully by calling you out on it to see how you would defend yourself.
I actually told Xiao of it before I did it:
Quote from: Toby on August 28, 2023, 02:27:22 PMI'm starting to see TZP in a new light recently
I want to test something but I want to make sure someone knows what I'm doing before I do it. I figure you over specs as specs knows him irl
I've made call-outs this game seeing people look human to me for going against the grain and TZP was the only player going against the No lynch strategy which would obviously benefit the wolf.
I wonder if he was intentionally going against the grain with this move for human points so I want to test if I call him out on it if he will defend it for being too obviously wolfy or something, or say a wolf obviously wouldn't go against the grain
I wanted to see if you would use the defence that it wouldn't make sense for a wolf to go against the grain or something of the sort - and you didn't (which is disappointing lol)
You actually have consistently been against almost every plan I've suggested this game. And I do respect different viewpoints, I don't just assume you're on a different team because of that, maybe you just don't like me lol!
As a defence for myself I want to remind everyone of things I've done this game:
Night 1
Came up with a number strategy to try limit ties (and irl was genuinely excited and doodling numerous number plans in my notebook trying to come up with a strategy), I even mentioned a number strategy that would prevent both equal number ties and equidistant ties but limited our number pool to 10/11? numbers which let the wolf target us easier. I feel like these kind of strategies only come from genuine excitement and actively thinking about best strategies for the humans
I was very vocal on how I thought it was in the best interest for the PNS to claim. In hindsight I naively didn't think about the possibility of the PNS and wolf working together to kill who they wanted. But I mean I feel like that just shows how my mindset was so human strategy focused I missed a wolves strategy.
Day 1
When A# claimed PNS I fake claimed as to stop the wolf being able to work with them
I also collected + provided info on who said they would follow the number plan, who followed it, and what number they picked and tried to analyse it
Night 2
I can't remember what I did i think I was just quiet after olimar announced I might die. But I did post my suspicion list 3 mins before phase end here because I thought for sure I was about to die, and I wanted to say things so late that none of what I said would influence the night actions
Day 2
I was opposed to lynching Olimar as I believe he was intending to die the next die in a double kill and I wanted to let that happen. I wanted to lynch magnet instead. - I definitely feel like this is a major bad move as a wolf. lynching Olimar and then banking on magnet being alive the next day to take the lynch would have secured my win. I could have happily went along with the crowd, not drawn any further suspicion and then we can get magnet lynched the day after. Obviously magnet was wolfed night 3 so that plan wouldn't have worked out, but it certainly would have been a clear win for me. If I was a wolf and we lynched magnet, then Olimar died night 3, I was the next top suspicion on everyones list. It would have been so risky to play like this where I'm in the predicament of having to convince TZP and Xiao to lynch each other and I've been at the top of their list most the game. There's no benefit to wolf me pushing this
Night 3
quiet
Day 3
I suggested and pushed for the no lynch. If anyone was to be lynched other than me, Specs name was being hinted. pushing the game on another night massively risks his death and risks my out if I'm a wolf. There's no benefit to wolf me suggesting/pushing this
One thing I've just noticed and I find odd is this PM I got from Xiao night 2, an hour before phase end when he was doing the tomfoolery with Olimar:
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 22, 2023, 05:58:55 PMHi, I really hope you're town lol
I'm in a bit of a mess rn and I might get wolfed as a result, or by chance. If you're the wolf, the game is probably over after today, but if I die, please please keep a close look on A# Minor (and Olimar of course, if he isn't able to kill himself or if he gets lynched).
Sending this just before the phase change just in case...
Xiao are you able to explain the part in bold?
How would you have gotten wolfed as a result? The wolfing's are random
Looking through Xiao's posts and the like 3 PMs I have from him I wanted to try see some human passion from him and I don't think I see it. The closest example is the PM above.
He didn't even join in on figuring out a number plan which a lot of people joined in on, and he was active during the whole conversation but didn't really make his input.
I don't really buy the excuse of not being good at statistics, neither am I but it's just a bit of passion or excitement in trying to think of a good plan for the humans that I wanted to see!
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 18, 2023, 10:34:55 AMalso i failed statistics in high school so i wont be much help with the math stuff haha
ill read through the stuff here later im busy rn
I also memorably expected him to post something meaningful after he said he was going to read through stuff later but his following 4 posts over a 16 hour period added nothing
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 18, 2023, 12:24:24 PMin general for other stuff we do chat in a discord tho
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 18, 2023, 01:33:49 PM"misquote the art of war so people think you know what youre talking about"
- sun tzu, the art of war
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 18, 2023, 10:25:18 PMi was joking
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 19, 2023, 02:50:50 AMyeah, i missed page 2 of the messages oops
It actually made me ask him a question directly to get his opinion because I was noticing it.
I stopped being suspicious of Xiao after he made a big post to accuse me, but honestly he accused me the same day I called him out for not analysing as much as I expected him to (when reading his previous game lol)
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 20, 2023, 09:36:06 PMQuote from: Toby on August 20, 2023, 03:55:35 PMXiao any thoughts ? Reading your past game I feel like you were more analytical in that than how you have been here
You think so? I think that in the past game also I only got analytical a little later on in the game, once there was more information to go off of. Still, I'd be happy to answer any questions and will try to write something today maybe
so im not sure how much weight it actually holds
I want to say whoever the wolf is out of you has done a good job. I think with this game the PNS added a lot of distraction that took away from soley hunting for the wolf. We've also actually only tried to lynch a wolf once so far (day 1). So we've only allowed ourselves 1 myslynch but with the random wolfings it sort of(?) balances out some of our suspicions got wolfed
Approximately 24 hours until phase end!!!
Quote from: Toby on August 29, 2023, 03:58:06 PMXiao are you able to explain the part in bold?
How would you have gotten wolfed as a result? The wolfing's are random
I thought A# was the wolf (a lot of us did), and thought they might be conspiring already with Olimar due to how they sounded in PMs. Not to mention if another real wolf had already reached out to him, they might judt lynch me to test who really is the wolf
Toby, the main reason I suspect you is that your play style has felt very reactionary the whole game.Your play style and post contents hace constantly been changing, almost as if to adapt to any possible suspicions that might otherwise arise. Also, you've just felt a little too passionate these past few days, with countless walls of text being posted. I appreciate investing that amount of time, but forgive me for thinking that sudden uptick of activity looks a little off. You've also seemed like you favor your own life over the success of the town, somehow lynching you was never an option even when it couldve helped us because we all suspected you. town!Toby could afford to have taken more risks, and should have taken some too.
TZP, the main reason I suspect you is that plan you shared with Specs and I a few days ago. It seems incredibly convenient that it points to Toby with basically no doubt. Did it not occur to you that that's what wolf!anyone else could do to make Toby look more suspicious.
That said, you've kept yourself more rational than Toby this game, and come up with your own ideas and plans unprompted. Disagreeing with Toby, who was often the loudest voice in the room, is probably not something a wolf would risk doing, certainly not repeatedly. This is also where your play style this round differs from last round, where I suspected really early you might be a wolf.
I don't want to base my arguments solely off of 'vibes', but when I avoided doing that last time it ended up costing town the game. Toby, ever since you sent me that PNS PM you've felt extremely suspicious to me. Not that there's anything super suspicious about doing that, but unfortunately that's just how I feel.
TZP, it would be wrong to say I haven't suspected you but you've remained consistently low on my suspicion lists, as you still do now.
Also jyk Toby, I've agreed with you in public a lot more than I did in private, mainly before the no lynch situation. Was hoping it might lead somewhere but it never did
I'm also discounting TZP's Toby accusation with number 50, since I think that could go either way (town!TZP making a valid accusation, or wolf!TZP clearing themselves/town!TZP forgetting to account for everything)
I meant disregarding*
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 29, 2023, 10:39:54 PMToby, the main reason I suspect you is that your play style has felt very reactionary the whole game.Your play style and post contents hace constantly been changing, almost as if to adapt to any possible suspicions that might otherwise arise. Also, you've just felt a little too passionate these past few days, with countless walls of text being posted. I appreciate investing that amount of time, but forgive me for thinking that sudden uptick of activity looks a little off. You've also seemed like you favor your own life over the success of the town, somehow lynching you was never an option even when it couldve helped us because we all suspected you. town!Toby could afford to have taken more risks, and should have taken some too.
A reactionary play style is genuine though rather than trying to process everything through a wolf filter and keep my cool lol. Which contradicts with your final point that I could be taking more risks ? I've not been afraid to say my thoughts and opinions this whole game and I literally fake claimed a third party to throw off the wolf, so I don't follow your reasoning at all
Also fyi I picked number 51 last night slap in the middle because I wanted to die since I was at the top of everyone's suspicion lists. I also stayed quiet when olimars plan was to have me killed and I posted a full detailed suspicion list just before phase end. I'm not going to allow town to waste an mis lynch on me that doesn't make sense at all?
Too passionate? Sudden uptick of activity ? I've been less active as the game went on and there's less people to talk with. I'm sure day 1 was my most amount of posts.
None of this makes sense lol
What risk have u taken Xiao ? U stopped the PNS killings themselves just so we could waste a lynch on them the next day lol
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 29, 2023, 10:55:40 PMAlso jyk Toby, I've agreed with you in public a lot more than I did in private, mainly before the no lynch situation. Was hoping it might lead somewhere but it never did
What does this mean? Hoping what might lead where
Quote from: Toby on August 30, 2023, 12:31:38 AMA reactionary play style is genuine though rather than trying to process everything through a wolf filter and keep my cool lol. Which contradicts with your final point that I could be taking more risks ? I've not been afraid to say my thoughts and opinions this whole game and I literally fake claimed a third party to throw off the wolf, so I don't follow your reasoning at all
I don't think that reactionary and risk taking are synonymous, but that aside, I think the risks that you took are much easier to read as wolf moves than town moves
Quote from: Toby on August 30, 2023, 12:31:38 AMAlso fyi I picked number 51 last night slap in the middle because I wanted to die since I was at the top of everyone's suspicion lists. I also stayed quiet when olimars plan was to have me killed and I posted a full detailed suspicion list just before phase end. I'm not going to allow town to waste an mis lynch on me that doesn't make sense at all?
There's no way to know what number you picked ..
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 29, 2023, 10:52:35 PMI don't want to base my arguments solely off of 'vibes', but when I avoided doing that last time it ended up costing town the game. Toby, ever since you sent me that PNS PM you've felt extremely suspicious to me. Not that there's anything super suspicious about doing that, but unfortunately that's just how I feel.
TZP, it would be wrong to say I haven't suspected you but you've remained consistently low on my suspicion lists, as you still do now.
I find it odd this PM makes you suspicious of me considering I explained that it followed TZP suggesting to me multiple people should claim PNS, and I asked not only you to fake claim PNS but I also asked magnet
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 09:34:58 PMHi I assumed your PNS claim in the topic was a joke but since the PNS actually claiming could be damaging to humans if they work with the wolf, I think you should double down on your claim and I'm just gonna claim too to mess things about more lol
I also still don't understand your rationale for unclaiming and why me claiming was good enough
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 19, 2023, 11:18:08 PMhey! it was half a joke and half just an attempt to get things moving a little, but if you claim too that sounds good enough for me to unclaim lol
And you say that you've been suspicious of me since this PM exchange but then I was the 1 person you reached out to when you were messing with Olimar ? And seemed like you trusted me then ?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 22, 2023, 05:58:55 PMHi, I really hope you're town lol
I'm in a bit of a mess rn and I might get wolfed as a result, or by chance. If you're the wolf, the game is probably over after today, but if I die, please please keep a close look on A# Minor (and Olimar of course, if he isn't able to kill himself or if he gets lynched).
Sending this just before the phase change just in case...
Why do I feel like all your reasoning today is a bit all over the place. I can tell you've not looked back to remind yourself of events or really dig into me or TZP again. Maybe it's because you're feeling safe right now
Quote from: Toby on August 30, 2023, 12:33:23 AMWhat risk have u taken Xiao ? U stopped the PNS killings themselves just so we could waste a lynch on them the next day lol
this is what i mean with passionate
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 30, 2023, 12:44:08 AMI don't think that reactionary and risk taking are synonymous, but that aside, I think the risks that you took are much easier to read as wolf moves than town moves
Can you be specific
I've taken the most risks this game. And suggested more plans to harm the wolf than anyone
Quote from: Toby on August 30, 2023, 12:49:53 AMCan you be specific
I've taken the most risks this game. And suggested more plans to harm the wolf than anyone
Actually why don't you do a comparison of risks I've taken this game Vs risks TZP has taken to justify this reasoning ?
Holy smokes lots to respond to here. Sorry I missed so much back and forth.
Toby, to clarify what you say in this (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435852#msg435852) claim to Xiao--you said the no lynch strat would benefit the wolf? Are you going back on what you think of the plan, or are you saying that *opposing* the no lynch strat is what benefits the wolf?
Re: your enthusiasm about coming up with plans for the humans--if you are a human and this is sincere, that's the exact same thing I was doing
Regarding what you said about wanting to lynch Magnet being a bad play as a wolf--this is a valid point that when you're a wolf and everyone has narrowed a list of acceptable lynches to you and one other person. I could really go both ways on this is what I'm saying
Xiao, re: the plan I shared with you and Specs: I assume you're talking about my interpretation of the N2 wolfing of A# rather than Olimar+someone being convenient for Toby. You're definitely right that it could be a wolf banking on increased attention being thrown his way, [], but I hope it's been clear that I have not been playing. I said earlier on that I
Toby also talked far and away the most N1--I'm not sure what you are referring to here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435861#msg435861) Xiao? There are fewer people to talk to, but also it's the end of the game and so the decision we make here is literally life or death. I think being more passionate is entirely appropriate.
Toby, Xiao makes a fair point that it's very easy to say that you picked 51
Lastly Toby, I do like you and have been really happy to be able to play with you again after so many years--sorry if I've been communicating dislike!
incomplete post that I accidentally pressed enter on--my b. Completed sentences below:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 30, 2023, 11:00:46 AMRe: your enthusiasm about coming up with plans for the humans--if you are a human and this is sincere, that's the exact same thing I was doing at the start of the game.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 30, 2023, 11:00:46 AMRegarding what you said about wanting to lynch Magnet being a bad play as a wolf--this is a valid point that when you're a wolf and everyone has narrowed a list of acceptable lynches to you and one other person, you ideally keep that other person alive for as long as possible. My hesitation in taking what you say at face value here is that lynching Magnet would have allowed to keep Olimar alive for nighttime shenanigans if you were a wolf, and possibly would not have forced you into the position of siccing Xiao and me on each other in that situation. I could really go both ways on this is what I'm saying
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 30, 2023, 11:00:46 AMXiao, re: the plan I shared with you and Specs: I assume you're talking about my interpretation of the N2 wolfing of A# rather than Olimar+someone being convenient for Toby. You're definitely right that it could be a wolf banking on increased attention being thrown his way, {I thought someone else had brought this up earlier and was going to link it here but I couldn't find it}, but I hope it's been clear that I have not been playing that angle. I said earlier on that I wasn't at all sure that I wanted to publicly air out suspicion on Toby in a PM to Specs, and that I wanted to wait for Olimar to weigh in in case I was jumping on something that was a setup.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 30, 2023, 11:00:46 AMToby, Xiao makes a fair point that it's very easy to say that you picked 51 without any way of corroborating that pick.
Oh yeah, Toby, why were you disappointed I didn't use "the wolf would ever go against the grain" as a defense?
Just a heads up that I might be out and about at the time of phase update, so even if I can't give a proper update I'll try not to keep anybody waiting longer than I have to.
Otherwise, if everyone agrees, we could extend the phase (by up to 24 hours).
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 30, 2023, 11:00:46 AMHoly smokes lots to respond to here. Sorry I missed so much back and forth.
Toby, to clarify what you say in this (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435852#msg435852) claim to Xiao--you said the no lynch strat would benefit the wolf? Are you going back on what you think of the plan, or are you saying that *opposing* the no lynch strat is what benefits the wolf?
Re: your enthusiasm about coming up with plans for the humans--if you are a human and this is sincere, that's the exact same thing I was doing
Regarding what you said about wanting to lynch Magnet being a bad play as a wolf--this is a valid point that when you're a wolf and everyone has narrowed a list of acceptable lynches to you and one other person. I could really go both ways on this is what I'm saying
Xiao, re: the plan I shared with you and Specs: I assume you're talking about my interpretation of the N2 wolfing of A# rather than Olimar+someone being convenient for Toby. You're definitely right that it could be a wolf banking on increased attention being thrown his way, [], but I hope it's been clear that I have not been playing. I said earlier on that I
Toby also talked far and away the most N1--I'm not sure what you are referring to here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435861#msg435861) Xiao? There are fewer people to talk to, but also it's the end of the game and so the decision we make here is literally life or death. I think being more passionate is entirely appropriate.
Toby, Xiao makes a fair point that it's very easy to say that you picked 51
Lastly Toby, I do like you and have been really happy to be able to play with you again after so many years--sorry if I've been communicating dislike!
No I'm not going back on the no lynch strategy. I whole heartedly believe it was the best strategy for us. However, while I find it odd, I don't think I find you too suspicious for not supporting a no lynch. In my opinion I find it so obviously beneficial to humans to no lynch day 3, that I believe it would be silly for a wolf to share their genuine wolf opinion and oppose it. And I think most people would agree with that. Therefore I wanted to test if you were trying to use some sort of reverse psychology since I had given you credit before for going against the grain and I deemed that a human trait. So I wanted to test it you would explicitly say going against the grain is not what a wolf would do.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 30, 2023, 11:24:52 AMOh yeah, Toby, why were you disappointed I didn't use "the wolf would ever go against the grain" as a defense?
And above is why I was disappointed you didn't say that. Because I set bait and you didn't take it lol, but I can't give you human points I just can't give you wolf points lol
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on August 30, 2023, 11:53:05 AMJust a heads up that I might be out and about at the time of phase update, so even if I can't give a proper update I'll try not to keep anybody waiting longer than I have to.
Otherwise, if everyone agrees, we could extend the phase (by up to 24 hours).
I'd be fine with a phase extension
Personally I'd also much prefer the phase to end at least 3 hours earlier than it's usual time if anyone else supports an extension + that
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 30, 2023, 11:00:46 AMToby, Xiao makes a fair point that it's very easy to say that you picked 51
Lastly Toby, I do like you and have been really happy to be able to play with you again after so many years--sorry if I've been communicating dislike!
I mean that's true but it's easy for anyone to say anything at any time,I'm just telling you what I did so upto you if you want to believe it
That's good you do like me ! I've been worried that I come across aggressive in my posts sometimes and I'm scared if I pick someone apart and they're infact human I don't want to just be ripping apart their personality lol! It's been like 5 years since I've played and I forgot how aggressive it can feel sometimes but it's the nature of the game!
Also anyone questioning me posting so much or being passionate just look at any of my previous games from years ago and I'm still the same. As someone who repped nsm in one of the first championship games, the more posts the more discussion and I've been trying to ask people direct questions and share my opinion on almost anything not only so people can read me better but so I can get responses and read other people better.
I'm on my phone but to respond to TZP:
QuoteRegarding what you said about wanting to lynch Magnet being a bad play as a wolf--this is a valid point that when you're a wolf and everyone has narrowed a list of acceptable lynches to you and one other person, you ideally keep that other person alive for as long as possible. My hesitation in taking what you say at face value here is that lynching Magnet would have allowed to keep Olimar alive for nighttime shenanigans if you were a wolf, and possibly would not have forced you into the position of siccing Xiao and me on each other in that situation. I could really go both ways on this is what I'm saying
Okay so with 6 players on day 2 let's say I am a wolf and I see a true benefit in lynching magnet first and then using olimars shenanigans to pick my own kill
Xiao, TZP, and specs all expressed me as a top suspicion, so honestly it didn't matter who I killed my name was still going to come out the next day. Wolf me would have been much safer following the crowd and holding out for magnet surviving
I would be fine with a phase extension, I'm very tired and don't think I can put in the time needed for this today, if can be helped
Quote from: Toby on August 30, 2023, 12:48:57 PMI'd be fine with a phase extension
Personally I'd also much prefer the phase to end at least 3 hours earlier than it's usual time if anyone else supports an extension + that
Just waiting to hear from TZP. So something like 4pm Pacific Time/7pm Eastern/midnight UK time?
Phases usually end at
9pm TZPs time
3am my time
4am Xaios time
7pm BDS' time
I'm not sure what TZP or BDS daytime is like tomorrow but if phase could end a few hours earlier tomorrow that would be great so I can see the end
Ninja'd: but yeah midnight U.K. time works fine for me
Yeah, I'd be down for a phase extension. I'm quite busy tonight and tomorrow but I'll engage with whatever I can.
All right, it's settled then!
Day 4 will now end Thursday, August 31st at 4pm Pacific Time / 7pm Eastern Time / Midnight UK Time.
Ok I slept on this and I have some significantly different thoughts today.
Quote from: Toby on August 30, 2023, 01:05:40 PMXiao, TZP, and specs all expressed me as a top suspicion, so honestly it didn't matter who I killed my name was still going to come out the next day. Wolf me would have been much safer following the crowd and holding out for magnet surviving
This is a fair point--I had forgotten that Specs had floated you as one of his top options as well. Also to be completely transparent I was not thinking about the numbers when I wrote that yesterday, and you're right that even if you had gotten Magnet lynched and taken down Olimar+randomhuman N3, there still would have been two humans alive and we'd be in pretty much the same situation we're in now.
Now Xiao. Your playstyle this whole game has made sense to me, with one exception--the electric boogaloo (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435592#msg435592) post. I don't see a clear reason to do that as a human beyond just kicking dust up in the air, which had already been done numerous times with the shenaniganery surrounding the PNS claiming. When I asked you what your plan was, you straight up said "idk lol, no goal" and I bought it because I was more suspicious of Toby at the time.
So what I'm wondering whether what happened N2 is that you reached out to Olimar, as a wolf, to coordinate a wolfing, but it didn't go as you expected. The reason I think this is because the unusual N2 wolfing pick is still unaccounted for, and it's possible that Olimar double-crossed you and you were afraid he was going to air you out to the thread. So to get out ahead of that, you dropped a post saying "yeah I claimed wolf to Olimar but I was doing it as a human haha, also we should definitely lynch Olimar". But Olimar didn't push the issue, and we lynched him anyway.
Thoughts?
Following Toby's lead on this--things I have done that have been helpful for the humans:
N1
I also spent most of N1 trying to help find a number-picking strat that wouldn't give the wolf any kind of edge. I was enthusiastic in the same way Toby says he was. Even before the game started, Specs and I had discussed the game's design, trying to find a way to solve it, and a bunch of that carried over into N1 for me. I really did have quite a lot of back and forth with other players about what would and wouldn't work, so Toby, if you are actually a human, please apply that same logic about excitedly looking for a solution to me as well!
D1
I was genuinely frustrated here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435282#msg435282) that not everyone had gotten on board with the number picking scheme and we lost whatever chance we might have had to pull data off of what number people picked while everyone was still in the game. Again, an emotive response I don't think I would have had as a wolf. Also I just remembered how excited THC was to play for the first time in ages, and he ate a wolfing N1 that wasn't even directed at him necessarily :C pour one out.
The E. Gadd lynch stands out as being kinda weak retrospectively, and I bear some of the blame for that I think--by the time he was like "I'm not reading all that" it was pretty clear he wasn't our guy, but it was too late.
N2
Didn't say much--probably having breakfast for 16 hours or something
D2
I really think that the Olimar lynch was the wisest move here and I was one of the loudest voices pushing for it. I was also trying very hard to get a read on the N2 wolfing and I think that all of my inferences were reasonable and articulate.
N3
pretty quiet
D3
I'm a broken record on my no-lynch stance so I won't say much more about it here
This about brings us up to present.
Xiao show us the pms between you and olimar co ordinating your plan
You showed the ones between you and A# in the same post but not you and Olimar
sure
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 22, 2023, 01:57:39 AMhello, are you really the PNS? I'm a little confused as to what's actually going on..
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 22, 2023, 05:31:45 AMYep, it's me! What are you confused about?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 22, 2023, 05:36:41 AMI'm just wondering why it's beneficial for the wolf to reveal themselves to you, especially if you end up dying tonight. Isn't the whole point of PNS and wolf meeting that they can work together?
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 22, 2023, 06:02:14 AMIt's a game of risks, and I've given the wolf-senpai the choice! If they choose to reach out, they can choose how the game progresses. If not, they can still get their double kill and I can get my win con. No matter what they choose, someone WILL die tonight. It's up to them how happens and what alliances are made, though.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on May 13, 1975, 09:24:27 PMWhat if I told you I was the wolf?
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 22, 2023, 07:44:14 AMI had a feeling it might be you, after you asked those wolf-centric questions in the thread. It's nice to finally meet you, Wolf-sempai!! I can switch it to specs, easy.
However, if you would like to make things more interesting, you could save my killing for later to allow you to aim more intentionally next night+. I think I could pretty plausibly work up the story that I was trying to fish for the wolf to claim and that I was lying about my claim, and was in cahoots with A# etc. something spicy like that (especially since the targets I announced would be missed).
If you think it'd be too risky (since I would probably be a potential lynch candidate) I can stick to the double kill tonight.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 22, 2023, 08:02:48 AMI think this would work! If there's only one person killed tonight, that means the town will assume we haven't found each other yet and there's no incentive to lynch you (if the others even believe you're still the PNS at that point).
That said, there is a significant security risk in keeping you around, especially since you're not really bound to anything once you win. So, here's a list of possible scenarios:
1) We double kill tonight, town knows we've found eachother but doesn't know who I am. I have to play out the rest of the game, 3 more nights, without dying. This may be possible but is statistically unlikely (not to mention I'm hardly the most experienced player in the room).
2) Single kill tonight, via your swapping: You are alive but have no obligation towards me since you've already won. There's nothing stopping you from ratting me out to town. However, town doesn't know we've met and is not suspicious of anything (anything extra).
3) Single kill tonight, without your swapping: You and I can save the double kill for a later date, whilst both keeping in the town's favor. Assuming we both survive the day phase, we can double kill immediately after if you feel like you're next on the chopping block. Surviving 2 nights is already significantly better odds for me than surviving 3.
I am leaning towards option 3) but I'm aware of the risk it entails for you. Do you think you'd be able to survive the next lynch round? We could probably divert attention to magnet since they've been even quieter this game than you have. Personally I don't think I'm at immediate risk for lynching so I'm less worried about that
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 22, 2023, 08:57:10 AMYou're not at risk of lynching, but I am. I'd say pick whoever you think poses the biggest threat to you rn that isn't A#/Toby and we can knock them off the danger-to-you list, while also securing my victory since there's a solid possibility I won't be around for another night.
I think it'd be way more fun to mess with humans than to hand them an easy victory, if that helps you feel better about the possibility of me outing you.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 22, 2023, 09:09:49 AMThat is fair. I've already chosen the number 5, and I think TZP would best be gone. Do your magic, magic man :P
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 22, 2023, 09:12:19 AMIt is done, Wolf-senpai~
one of the dates in the quotes messed up bc i had to copy it manually :sob:
What do you mean you had to copy it manually ?
i only have that message saved in quote
Some of those quotes have been edited/deleted
Olimar:
QuoteI had a feeling it might be you, after you asked those wolf-centric questions in the thread. It's nice to finally meet you, Wolf-sempai!! I can switch it to specs, easy.
There's literally no mention of Specs before this so it comes out of nowwhere
that coupled with the weird quote dated may 14 1975 is possible if you accidentally delete 1 of 2 or the last characters of the quotes 'date' number thing, which is very easy if you were deleting the top line of whatever you were quoting. I don't see much reason for a human to be deleting or editing their messages.
Olimar seems to suggest he wants to mess with the humans
So here's what I think actually happened:
A# was the intended number swap and Olimar got his win condition. But the plan was to keep Olimar alive and then have town want to waste a lynch on him rather than try lynch another wolf. This is why Olimar was so calm Day 2 and didn't care he was being voted for. I even questioned if he'd already met his win con
Reasons to back it up:Those quotes are edited so clearly some extra chat is missing
You weirdly started calling A# suspicious in your electric boogaloo post here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435592#msg435592) which is weird considering she was dead. Possibly an attempt to look human and like you would never co-ordinate to kill /want A# dead ? And A# fits wanting someone dead who was a bit random as to not make it look targeted
Olimar looks like he clearly wants to meddle with humans so I think it was his idea to stay alive and get lynched:
QuoteI think it'd be way more fun to mess with humans than to hand them an easy victory, if that helps you feel better about the possibility of me outing you.
Olimar didn't seem to put up any fight at all when being voted for or call out Xiao at all for backstabbing him, this is literally all he had to say:
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 23, 2023, 03:37:22 PMLet the chaos ensue! It is all for my beloved wolf-senpai!!
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 24, 2023, 08:15:11 AMYou don't know what I want!!
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 24, 2023, 10:48:35 AMYou don knoooow me!
Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 24, 2023, 12:44:56 PMQuoteI'm asuming you haven't won already?
;)
Xiao also weirdly voted for magnet changing the vote count for magnet to tie with 2 votes here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435689#msg435689)
with this explanation:
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 24, 2023, 10:18:43 PMI went to sleep and didn't want anyone to be insta'ed
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 24, 2023, 10:27:23 PMAnd if y'all ended up voting for magnet, I didn't want my vote to be stopping you
Which doesn't really add up to me either - it was his idea to vote the Olimar
I think I'm heaving leaning Xiao now.
I've seen passion and excitement and eagerness to help drive the humans and find the best strategy to win from TZP that I haven't seen from Xiao. The only main point of strategy/passion I saw from Xiao was keeping the PNS alive night 2 just to lynch them day 2
Also reminder to everyone else the phase ends in like 3 hours this time
edited?? my guy im on mobile and some of the messages i sent are only available in quotes of olimars response, but the contents itself is intact lol
also wow does this post skew things, give me a minute-
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 12:55:23 PMSome of those quotes have been edited/deleted
Olimar:There's literally no mention of Specs before this so it comes out of nowwhere
i believe this refers to 'specs' as in specifics? at least, thats how i interpreted it, nothing else makes sense...
also, all the in-line quotes were removed when quoting so thats why the flow looks weird here
and if i really wanted to fake messages they wouldntvbe so pointlessly detailed idk
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 31, 2023, 01:27:20 PMi believe this refers to 'specs' as in specifics? at least, thats how i interpreted it, nothing else makes sense...
So Olimar said "I can switch the wolfing to specifics"? What?
He says switch it to specs though so I don't buy that
And even on mobile what reason do you have to hit the delete button
I think you deleted the top line of whatever that quote was and accidentally cut the end off the [quote. author=XiaoMigros link=topic=12753.msg435910#msg435910 date=1693513797] bit
I believe majority of it was said I think you just cut off a few bits and missed stuff out
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 12:55:23 PMA# was the intended number swap and Olimar got his win condition. But the plan was to keep Olimar alive and then have town want to waste a lynch on him rather than try lynch another wolf. This is why Olimar was so calm Day 2 and didn't care he was being voted for. I even questioned if he'd already met his win con
why would we have picked a# of all people? me and at least someone else already found them suspicious because of the pns claim thing and had the olimar thing not happened they wouldve been who i voted for
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 31, 2023, 01:29:57 PMand if i really wanted to fake messages they wouldntvbe so pointlessly detailed idk
Yeah dog we're not suggesting you're writing them from scratch—we know you claimed at least something to Olimar, but that looks like an extremely censored PM
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 12:55:23 PMReasons to back it up:
Those quotes are edited so clearly some extra chat is missing
okay then, that helps!
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 12:55:23 PMYou weirdly started calling A# suspicious in your electric boogaloo post here (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12753.msg435592#msg435592) which is weird considering she was dead. Possibly an attempt to look human and like you would never co-ordinate to kill /want A# dead ? And A# fits wanting someone dead who was a bit random as to not make it look targeted
again, a bunch of us suspected her for the pns claim thing, and the only reason i did the olimar thing in the first place was to see how they reacted. you could replace A# with any other player here and your argument wouldnt change
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 12:55:23 PMwith this explanation:Which doesn't really add up to me either - it was his idea to vote the Olimar
idk something about magnet just voting olimar with no explanation seemed off? and you literally voted magnet too
as for passion and excitement: what do you want me to say i was the same last game
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 31, 2023, 01:35:26 PMYeah dog we're not suggesting you're writing them from scratch—we know you claimed at least something to Olimar, but that looks like an extremely censored PM
well if my victory hinged on this i would probably have put more care into it
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 31, 2023, 01:40:18 PMagain, a bunch of us suspected her for the pns claim thing, and the only reason i did the olimar thing in the first place was to see how they reacted. you could replace A# with any other player here and your argument wouldnt change
ah wait right a# died lmao i missed that (as i did previously too)
I had said all day I was voting magnet. You didn't really say anything to indicate you would vote magnet beforehand
Honestly I don't think anyone had said they were sus of A# at the time apart from me 3 mins before phase end. There was sus around magnet, myself and I think specs maybe? TZP there wasn't but I think he was leaning town on you at the time so that could be an inclination for you to keep him? you might have thought killing A# pointed a finger at me too. From then you only need to lynch Olimar day 2 and either magnet or myself to win
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 01:32:25 PMAnd even on mobile what reason do you have to hit the delete button
I think you deleted the top line of whatever that quote was and accidentally cut the end off the [quote. author=XiaoMigros link=topic=12753.msg435910#msg435910 date=1693513797] bit
I believe majority of it was said I think you just cut off a few bits and missed stuff out
again, i had to manually add the date and author and whatnot because i only have access to some messages from when olimar quoted them. try it: quote a quote, and it disappears. i copied the text and then manually added the missing information
and yeah if my victory depended on this youd think id proofread
what do you want me to do, send screenshots? is that even allowed?
no screenshots arent allowed
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 31, 2023, 01:50:58 PMagain, i had to manually add the date and author and whatnot because i only have access to some messages from when olimar quoted them. try it: quote a quote, and it disappears. i copied the text and then manually added the missing information
dont you have sent messages?
its not enabled by default so ive messed up sometimes
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 31, 2023, 01:50:58 PMagain, i had to manually add the date and author and whatnot because i only have access to some messages from when olimar quoted them. try it: quote a quote, and it disappears. i copied the text and then manually added the missing information
you manually typed this? [.quote author=XiaoMigros link=action=profile;u=6725 date=1692793401]
I dont believe that you obviously copy pasted, wanted to delete some of the text, but phone being phones jumped and deleted too much. Look what happens if I delete the last 2 characters of the above type quote
Goes from this
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 23, 2023, 05:23:21 AM
to this
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 15, 1970, 03:12:14 PM
tzp, whay are your thoughts? it seems like my previously seemingly human play has now been twisted into some master plan, but you've had next to no input. what are your thoughts?
seeing as the eolf only has to convince one of us
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 01:57:29 PMyou manually typed this? [.quote author=XiaoMigros link=action=profile;u=6725 date=1692793401]
yes?? as you said, phones are tedious, much faster to type than to copy a specific line from somewhere else and then edit it
i cant believe your argument needs my typing mannerisms lmao
Phase ends in approximately 2 hours!
I feel like me and TZP have really wanted to consider all options this last day phase, analysing both parties. Checking old posts, racking our brains
It feels like you just came into this phase looking for me being your out. You've not really pointed the finger at TZP at all. I think you've been trying to buddy with him most the game so you can both vote together
okay, ill give you a chance, you have put in a lot of effort, i vote TZP
Xiao
the spectators go wild as toby is confirmed human or a dumb wolf
congratulations on your win tzp!!
good job tzp!
the 'comfirming' toby was a wolf because of the 50 thing really helped you stay on huh
why would you vote tzp without putting a case against him you wolf
because i dont think i can change your mind
kinda my own fault i was too biased against u tbh
too little too late
fwiw: tzp played safe, knew his odds, and only made accusations late in the game when it could actually benefit him
hes been the nothing burger of this round really
This game has had the most posts since 2016 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=8659.0) and that one had 3 (or 15?) more players
the forums have been reawakened
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 31, 2023, 02:28:05 PMfwiw: tzp played safe, knew his odds, and only made accusations late in the game when it could actually benefit him
TZP actively had his own opinion on everything and spoke out on it. He made as many accusations as you did through the game
but did he take risks
also why would i have brought up that i dmed olimar
because he claimed PNS to you and you wanted everyone to waste a lynch on him, to which he obliged as he met his win con
why would that need my dms though
he already claimed publicly
wanna retract votes?
if you're gonna build a full defence and a case against TZP sure unvote
but i dont see why a human would act wreckless and vote like that without even putting a case forward
feels like you just threw in the towel a bit
well it was either that or we lose so
but it could have been me?
it could have been, yes. still, i dont think i could have convinced tzp otherwise, hes not being very reciprocating atm but maybe hes just busy
what are your thoughts on the 'oversight' in tzp's deduction? i e, saying only you wouldnt have accepted olimars offer and picked 50?
imo ig seems way too convenient to ignore the fact that anyone could have not picked 50 to paint you amd A# in a bad light
I mean he did eventually retract it
From Olimar's reaction I believe he met his win con. But if he didn't meet it with you, then it must have been TZP. but why would he choose TZP over you when your pm exchange looks like he trusts you
do you really think he met it that night specifically? im not sure why it was worth the risk revealing himself at that specific moment
also, whats to day he didnt get it but didnt know how to argue himself to stay alive? what could he even have said since we were set on the pns lol
also, i reached out to him pretty late through the phase, which is why it felt more risky to me
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 02:28:52 PMThis game has had the most posts since 2016 (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=8659.0) and that one had 3 (or 15?) more players
That's honestly pretty hype to hear :o Thanks to everyone for making this a very active game!!!
I remember that game being an interesting one. There were 12 players, but everyone was also playing on an alt at the same time (essentially working for two teams at the same time and having to choose which one had the better chance of winning).
unless he got lucky night 1 but i doubt it.
he revealed himself night 2 as he didn't want lynched day 1.
the pm with olimar saying 'swap it to specs' still doesn't make sense unless you deleted a message. but you said you interpreted it as specifications and that no message was missing
i honestly dont get the specs part either, but what would a hypothetical hidden message say exactly?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 31, 2023, 02:55:10 PMalso, whats to day he didnt get it but didnt know how to argue himself to stay alive? what could he even have said since we were set on the pns lol
it was a toss between him and magnet he could have put a case forward for magnet or at least said he wasn't working with the wolf or something
he didn't even vote for magnet he voted no one he let himself die, if he voted it would have been a 3-3 tie
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 31, 2023, 02:57:53 PMi honestly dont get the specs part either, but what would a hypothetical hidden message say exactly?
At least a suggestion that you considered swapping the number to Specs but I'm guessing there's also more to it
But without the message itself or you telling us what was said, I'm just lead to believe you intended to cover it up
heres my version of events:
- i am the only person to reach put to olimar, olimar chamges tzps number to 5
- tzp chooses to not accept olimars plan, so he can frame you and/or a# later
- akin to last game, olimar doesnt know what to say and gets wolfed (having maybr met his win condition, maybe not
good lord five more pages what the hell is happening
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 02:59:11 PMAt least a suggestion that you considered swapping the number to Specs but I'm guessing there's also more to it
But without the message itself or you telling us what was said, I'm just lead to believe you intended to cover it up
how do you imagine specs could fit into all of this? you think olimar and i randomly selected him? why him over tzp, who i mentioned in the posts?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on August 31, 2023, 03:02:15 PMgood lord five more pages what the hell is happening
you couldve won
Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 31, 2023, 03:03:22 PMhow do you imagine specs could fit into all of this? you think olimar and i randomly selected him? why him over tzp, who i mentioned in the posts?
idk but you done goofed and missed that part out
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 03:05:39 PMidk but you done goofed and missed that part out
its a shame thats your conclusion but i cant really change it i guess
im just gonna keep my vote
xiaoyou were my first suspicion night 1 and you'll be my last
Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 04:20:37 PMSomething about Xiao is not sitting right with me - I've never played with him before so it might just be his character but I feel like a lot of his posts don't add substance. A couple of times he said he was just reading and catching up, but didn't make a follow up post to add anything? When I felt like a lot had been discussed.
congratulations again tzp
TZP stop reading and just vote Xiao
im already confirmed human now because i didn't insta you
what if it actually is tzp and he tried to insta you without reading everything but i had already unvoted and then he got caught
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 03:11:33 PMim just gonna keep my vote xiao
you were my first suspicion night 1 and you'll be my last
well, i was wrong about my first suspicion (you) and youll aoon find out you are too! fun all around
Quote from: Toby on August 31, 2023, 03:13:26 PMwhat if it actually is tzp and he tried to insta you without reading everything but i had already unvoted and then he got caught
i mean its him so maybe
ok like I said earlier I am very busy today but I'll respond to everything I can
-Xiao, if you are actually a wolf, you saying "why would we hit A# N2?" doesn't make sense? Neither you nor Olimar would know what number she picked.
-Also I have NOT been a nothingburger
Xiao
gg all
tzp what are you
congrats again again tzp
somebody say congrats to me right now
dude you lost tho
TWG CXV: Just a Numbers GameSpoiler
To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.
Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.
Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher
Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.
Host Clarifications:
- The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
- The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
- The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
- The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
- An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
- An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
- The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
- The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
- The game does not have cardflips.
----------
Players:
1.
A# Minor2. TheZeldaPianist275
3.
Olimar123454.
E. Gadd Industries5.
ThatHiddenCharacter6.
SpecsFlyer177.
XiaoMigros8.
magnet9. Toby
----------
I-I-I-INSTA!!!!!Xiao was lynched, bringing the game to an end.Spoiler
The Head Honcho wins.
welp, i tried
The final story is up in the second post! Postgame in a moment.