TWG CXVIII: Noughts and CrossesWolves1. Wolf
2. Wolf
Humans3. Innocent Child -- Confirmed human at start of game
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
8. Human
9. Human
Setup- The game will be played on a 3x3 board, with each player occupying a space.
- When town lynches a player, they will be replaced by an X on the board, while when wolves kill a player, they are replaced by an O.
- Victory can be achieved either through the standard win conditions (town by lynching all wolves, wolves at parity with town) or by getting three of a faction's symbols in a row.
- Cardflips are off, and OC is allowed (but the host must be included in all OC conversations). The game will have a day start, however.
-----------------
The Players1. A# Minor
2.
XiaoMigros3. TheZeldaPianist275
4.
ThatHiddenCharacter (Innocent Child)5.
SpecsFlyer176.
BlackDragonSlayer7. The Musical Poet
8.
threalmathguy9.
TobySubs1. davy
2. Olimar12345
Current board:
| TheZeldaPianist275 | X | A# Minor |
| O | X | X |
| The Musical Poet | O | O |
Board at start of game (the one in the OP will be updated as the game goes on):
| TheZeldaPianist275 | BlackDragonSlayer | A# Minor |
| ThatHiddenCharacter (IC) | threalmathguy | SpecsFlyer17 |
| The Musical Poet | Toby | XiaoMigros |
Also a reminder that ThatHiddenCharacter is Innocent Child and thus is confirmed human!
With that, D1 begins and ends in 48 hours at 9:00 PM on the 7th of November!
I, for one, am looking forward to TWG tac toe.
The biggest question right now is whether we want to deliberately go for a tic tac toe win, an incidental tic tac toe win (i.e. play normally unless we see a good opening), or primarily ignore the board unless a wolf victory via tic tac toe seems likely.
If the first option, then the center space is one of the most pivotal (as anyone who's played tic tac toe may know :P). If mathguy is a human, then there's a good chance he may be wolfed if he isn't lynched today.
Assuming we lynch at every opportunity, we have three lynches to work with if we don't hit a wolf, and four if we do hit a wolf. That may factor into our plans.
All hail King THC
In addition to what BDS brought up, something I think we should discuss before the game gets really underway is how in-depth we want to discuss tic-tac-toe strategy in the thread. Not that tic-tac-toe is a complicated game—it's solved, which means that every possible permutation of tic-tac-toe games has been run. So it's not like the wolves can't look up strategy on the side even if we don't discuss it in the thread, and there's not much room to get creative with tic-tac-toe plays anyway. That said, I don't want to start openly discussing strategy if the consensus is that it will help the wolf team. Thoughts?
It takes about 5 minutes to read an article or watch a video to learn optimal TTT strategy. I feel that it's better to discuss the strategy to avoid making an obvious blunder that would result in a wolf win via TTT.
Since its a day start, the town has the advantage for TTT. Without discussing too much (lets hear some other opinions on the matter first), the town plays optimal TTT strategy, we can't lose via TTT. There are other variables, mainly suspicious players that are subject to being lynched. However, if we play optimal TTT strategy, the wolves can't win via TTT since they play second.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 05, 2023, 08:28:39 PMIt takes about 5 minutes to read an article or watch a video to learn optimal TTT strategy. I feel that it's better to discuss the strategy to avoid making an obvious blunder that would result in a wolf win via TTT.
Since its a day start, the town has the advantage for TTT. Without discussing too much (lets hear some other opinions on the matter first), the town plays optimal TTT strategy, we can't lose via TTT. There are other variables, mainly suspicious players that are subject to being lynched. However, if we play optimal TTT strategy, the wolves can't win via TTT since they play second.
Should read "if the town plays optimal TTT strategy...."
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 05, 2023, 06:06:45 PMThe biggest question right now is whether we want to deliberately go for a tic tac toe win, an incidental tic tac toe win (i.e. play normally unless we see a good opening), or primarily ignore the board unless a wolf victory via tic tac toe seems likely.
If the first option, then the center space is one of the most pivotal (as anyone who's played tic tac toe may know :P). If mathguy is a human, then there's a good chance he may be wolfed if he isn't lynched today.
I say we play optimal strategy, but keep normal TWG suspicions in mind. As the game progresses, it may be worth deviating from optimal strategy to catch a wolf that appears suspicious. But for now, I think avoiding an early TTT blunder is the wise play.
TWG QUESTION
Oricorio, what happens if the town meets one win condition while simultaneously the wolves meet the other?
Example, the town lynches a human to reach the parity condition, but that human getting an X on the board won TTT?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 05, 2023, 08:28:39 PMIt takes about 5 minutes to read an article or watch a video to learn optimal TTT strategy. I feel that it's better to discuss the strategy to avoid making an obvious blunder that would result in a wolf win via TTT.
Since its a day start, the town has the advantage for TTT. Without discussing too much (lets hear some other opinions on the matter first), the town plays optimal TTT strategy, we can't lose via TTT. There are other variables, mainly suspicious players that are subject to being lynched. However, if we play optimal TTT strategy, the wolves can't win via TTT since they play second.
If you're aware of one of these videos, might be a good idea to link it for those curious :P
I generally agree though; I'm not sure if there's anything that can be discussed publicly that would be disadvantageous to share. If anything, having everyone on the same level of awareness is better for the humans so the wolves don't try to take advantage of the lynch to force a sub-optimal lynch.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 05, 2023, 08:39:15 PMI say we play optimal strategy, but keep normal TWG suspicions in mind. As the game progresses, it may be worth deviating from optimal strategy to catch a wolf that appears suspicious. But for now, I think avoiding an early TTT blunder is the wise play.
Makes sense.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 05, 2023, 08:44:28 PMTWG QUESTION
Oricorio, what happens if the town meets one win condition while simultaneously the wolves meet the other?
Example, the town lynches a human to reach the parity condition, but that human getting an X on the board won TTT?
The board takes priority. In that scenario, it would be a town victory.
Something else I thought of.
TTT will take at least 5 turns to win. If the Os don't even try, it will take 5 turns to win. If the Os make a mistake, it will usually take 7 turns.
3 mislynchs and 2 wolfings will result in a parity victory for the wolves. That's 5 turns. If we lynch correctly, it would take 7 turns to reach parity with one wolf.
So the more I think about things, the more I see a victory from TTT being pretty unlikely.
Anyone else have thoughts on this? Am I missing something obvious?
Quote from: Oricorio on November 05, 2023, 09:23:21 PMThe board takes priority. In that scenario, it would be a town victory.
Given that information, we should
definitely play to at least be certain of avoiding a wolf TTT victory.
haha i didnt forget
right.
so i'm not too sure what should be done about the tic tac toe thing tbh. i wouldn't want to focus on lynching random people just to make a line, especially considering how long that'll take and that the wolves are just gonna mess it all up. like, we should definitely keep it in mind, but we shouldn't base every single lynch on that. we wouldn't want to let the wolves win tho
apologies if that made no sense, i'm not really here right now haha
ninja'd
Quote from: A# Minor on November 05, 2023, 10:18:29 PMso i'm not too sure what should be done about the tic tac toe thing tbh. i wouldn't want to focus on lynching random people just to make a line, especially considering how long that'll take and that the wolves are just gonna mess it all up. like, we should definitely keep it in mind, but we shouldn't base every single lynch on that. we wouldn't want to let the wolves win tho
apologies if that made no sense, i'm not really here right now haha
Makes enough sense to me. Today I'm inclined to go for mathguy simply because he's at the center of the board (a vital position) and because day start lynches are always flimsy to begin with, but from there it would likely be a good idea to simply play as normal.
seems that hidden character isnt so hidden huh
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 05, 2023, 10:25:26 PMMakes enough sense to me. Today I'm inclined to go for mathguy simply because he's at the center of the board (a vital position) and because day start lynches are always flimsy to begin with, but from there it would likely be a good idea to simply play as normal.
I agree
I think the main danger is that the wolves could force us to lynch a human, if they have 2/3 of an all human line on the board. that said, lynching humans solely to stop that from happening is just as inefficient
I think lynching math guy is best play. Conveniently he also tends to be quiet so helps in that sense too
If we give up the centre to the wolves, they will have a lot of power and can force us to lynch specific humans to block their line
If we take the centre we get a lot of power and we can freely lynch whoever we want by next day phase AND we actually force the wolves where to put their following night kill as we will have a clear 2 in a row and they will be forced to block it.
This way we can essentially control the tic tac toe board. If we give up the centre to the wolves then they can control us to keep the lynches away from them
Although if both sides are playing for tic tac toe then it is inevitable that the wolves will be able to force us to lynch a certain way at least once. If we secure the centre square early I think we will only be forced a way day 3.
I just deleted a bit post I was gonna make about optimal tic tac toe strategy using corners
But I just played a few test games myself and if we play centre square today, we can actually ensure we don't get forced a way day 2 or day 3 which I think is more optimal
It depends if we want to put all our eggs into the tic tac toe win basket because alternatively we could play the corner strategy that after we make our lunch day 3, could basically leave THC (confirmed human), me (confirmed human to me), BDS and Specs on the board. Which may mean we can win via tic tac toe as long as both BDS and Specs (and I guess me) aren't all wolves
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 01:38:21 AMWhich may mean we can win via tic tac toe as long as both BDS and Specs (and I guess me) aren't all wolves
if my math is mathing there's only a 42.2% chance thats the case though
Quote from: XiaoMigros on November 06, 2023, 03:01:47 AMif my math is mathing there's only a 42.2% chance thats the case though
That doesn't sound right
If we pick off the corners and wolves follow suit to defend themselves, leaving THC, Specs, BDS and me, then we'd be looking to get one wolf out of the 5 X's & O's played. Which would be a 5/9 chance of catching a wolf but we can call it 5/8 chance since THC is a confirmed human. Which is 62.5% chance that we did catch a wolf so a 37.5% chance of failure which is quite high lol. But I guess for me it was a 6/8 chance which is 25% chance a failure, which is a bit better lol
I think if we play the middle square though, although our mathematical probability might not be as good, but we can factor in our social deductions to lynch people we think is sus rather than putting our eggs into the tic tac toe win basket. Any tic tac toe strategy can be countered though but placing in the middle can actually force the wolves to counter us to where we want to go as well. We effectively are able to have control over both the lynches and the wolfings to an extent.
Okay, figured its time to talk TTT strategy.
Optimal opening play is NOT the middle. It's actually a corner.
This video explains it well: https://youtu.be/0y0-xr2Af4w?si=FCQy_XyIF7vKrHOv
If we play a corner, the wolves HAVE to play in the middle space to avoid losing. Yes, that will take 7 turns, which is enough to hit parity with one wolf lynches. But, since the board takes priority, all we have to do is get one wolf lynched in 4 attempts to win via TTT if the wolves don't play center.
That being said, if they do play center square, optimal strategy will likely result in a tie. Then, we'd be best off just standard wolf hunting without making an obvious TTT error.
If play goes via optimal strategy:
D1: Lynch a corner
B1: Wolf the center
That gives us options. We can always stay on the offensive, forcing the wolves' next move. That can also be tailored to avoid lynching the innocent child, if we pick our moves right.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 06, 2023, 05:51:30 AMOptimal opening play is NOT the middle. It's actually a corner.
This isn't quite true. The way I would describe it is that playing the center is defensive, while playing a corner is aggressive. Playing a corner forces the wolves to play reactively (because of what that video explains). Corner openers can force the game into a guaranteed win profile for humans as early as the wolves' first play, which is why the video makes the case that it's the best opener. However, the game could be forced into a draw if the wolves play optimally
Center opener has more possible win profiles than the corner opener does, but it comes at the expense of not being able to force a win easily
also good grief Specs that video is torture to listen to
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 06, 2023, 05:51:30 AMOkay, figured its time to talk TTT strategy.
Optimal opening play is NOT the middle. It's actually a corner.
This video explains it well: https://youtu.be/0y0-xr2Af4w?si=FCQy_XyIF7vKrHOv
I mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically
Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next
Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone
I'm inclined to agree with Toby here. This is part of why I was surprised that the IC wasn't guaranteed to be in the middle lol—wolves are at a huge disadvantage if one of them rolls the center spot. It's an ideal D0 lynch, and if we do decide to go for a corner instead, they have to wolf it to stay competitive for the tic-tac-toe win condition (and if they don't wolf it, it means math is almost certainly a wolf,etc....)
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 06:29:47 AMI mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically
Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next
Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone
I agree, with emphasis on the final paragraph especially. Ideally, we just win by lynching the two wolves without any shenanigans, and going for center gives us more of a chance to actually accomplish that. There's also the fact that, unlike a normal TTT game, there are two squares which the O team is deliberately trying to avoid (unless doing so would achieve a win instantly), which could easily muck up any corner plans.
side note: I have been on the forum for 11 years and as of today have finally achieved Nintendo Nocturne status. Cheers
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 05, 2023, 06:38:59 PMAll hail King THC
Quote from: XiaoMigros on November 06, 2023, 12:07:53 AMseems that hidden character isnt so hidden huh
Yesssss...Ironically, this is probably the best role for me since I'm always suspicious. I am for the idea of trying to win via tic tac toe. I think we should start by lynching someone in a corner. Specifically, I would prefer we go for whoever seems most suspicious of the four, but it doesn't particularly matter. I must say, this game is perfectly balanced to avoid the way to guarantee a win in tic-tac-toe. Great job on that, Oricorio! Thought of everything.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 06, 2023, 06:43:05 AMside note: I have been on the forum for 11 years and as of today have finally achieved Nintendo Nocturne status. Cheers
Congrats!
Something else to consider, if we play corner, there is ONE move that the wolves can play: the center. If they don't play corner, that means the town WILL win in 7 turns, assuming one wolf is lynched over the 3 days. If the wolves don't play center, they're committing to 3 mislynches. If we correctly lynch one wolf over 3 days, we win after 7 turns.
If we play center, it gives the wolves options. The wolves taking a corner can force a tie, which there are 4 options of. The wolves taking a side means they're playing for 3 mislynches, since taking a side on turn 2 is a losing play.
Ninja, I see what yall are saying about flexibility with the center square
^^another way of saying what Specs just said is that if we play a corner and wolves *dont* hit the center, we only need to kill one wolf to win the game (via the TTT win condition)
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 06, 2023, 06:52:26 AMNinja, I see what yall are saying about flexibility with the center square
Yeah, the wolves know who the squares they wanna avoid are and can deliberately tailor their strategy depending on our pick. If we pick a corner they know will lead mostly/entirely to mislynches, they can just play along with it and we would be none the wiser.
Whereas if we pick center, then their wolfing pick may potentially be doubly revealing and potentially inform
our strategy (both gameboard and wolf hunting) going forward.
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 06:29:47 AMI mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically
Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next
Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 06:29:47 AMI mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically
Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next
Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 06:29:47 AMI mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically
Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next
Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone
For some reason I keep typing 'not' instead of 'now' on my phone
How did I quote that 3 times lol
On the contrary to that, if we play corner and wolves play center, we do have flexible options.
If they don't play corner (and commit to 3 mislynches), we also gain information about where they decided to play: a side, opposite corner, or adjacent corner. Each scenario forces a different optimal play, and we can use that information.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 06, 2023, 06:39:03 AMI'm inclined to agree with Toby here. This is part of why I was surprised that the IC wasn't guaranteed to be in the middle lol—wolves are at a huge disadvantage if one of them rolls the center spot. It's an ideal D0 lynch, and if we do decide to go for a corner instead, they have to wolf it to stay competitive for the tic-tac-toe win condition (and if they don't wolf it, it means math is almost certainly a wolf,etc....)
I was also surprised innocent child wasn't always the middle square as it literally is pretty much a guaranteed spot to be chosen early
If math guy is a wolf sucks for him because he is defo dying either today or tonight lol
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 06, 2023, 07:16:54 AMOn the contrary to that, if we play corner and wolves play center, we do have flexible options.
If they don't play corner (and commit to 3 mislynches), we also gain information about where they decided to play: a side, opposite corner, or adjacent corner. Each scenario forces a different optimal play, and we can use that information.
If we play corner today, then we could have full flexibility day 2, with wolves having conditional flexibility night 2 and I believe we will be forced where to go day 3.
If we play corner today we have full flexibility day 2, while also forcing the wolves to block a specific square night 2, and we then are then mostly flexible day 3
We just have more room and control if we choose centre first and force the wolves to use their night kill to defend, giving them no room for attack
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 07:25:26 AMIf we play corner today, then we could have full flexibility day 2, with wolves having conditional flexibility night 2 and I believe we will be forced where to go day 3.
If we play corner middle today we have full flexibility day 2, while also forcing the wolves to block a specific square night 2, and we then are then mostly flexible day 3
We just have more room and control if we choose centre first and force the wolves to use their night kill to defend, giving them no room for attack
Fixed above typo
My typos today are terrible
Okay, so you're basically saying it's better to play for the TTT draw but be in the drivers seat the whole game, opposed to take a chance at beating the wolves in TTT, but be forced to make specific move on D3.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 06, 2023, 08:11:57 AMOkay, so you're basically saying it's better to play for the TTT draw but be in the drivers seat the whole game, opposed to take a chance at beating the wolves in TTT, but be forced to make specific move on D3.
Yeah because we can only win TTT if we hit a wolf along the way, and if we play corner we have a projected path
Also we have given the wolves a video tutorial on how to defend corner play so we won't beat them at TTT lol
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 08:15:16 AMAlso we have given the wolves a video tutorial on how to defend corner play so we won't beat them at TTT lol
Buffington helping out the wolves lol
why do you guys have to be so active while i'm sleeping??
Quote from: A# Minor on November 06, 2023, 08:57:30 AMwhy do you guys have to be so active while i'm sleeping??
What's your thoughts about first square placement
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 05, 2023, 09:31:08 PMSo the more I think about things, the more I see a victory from TTT being pretty unlikely.
Specs I find it odd that after counting the mislynches needed you realised that a TTT victory was unlikely, however
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 06, 2023, 07:16:54 AMOn the contrary to that, if we play corner and wolves play center, we do have flexible options.
If they don't play corner (and commit to 3 mislynches), we also gain information about where they decided to play: a side, opposite corner, or adjacent corner. Each scenario forces a different optimal play, and we can use that information.
When you found out the optimal strategy in TTT was playing corners, and thus would ensure your survival until end game as you are a side, you were open again to playing strategy despite the fact it's very unlikely to win the game via TTT if strategy is played on both sides. Also odd considering you linked a literal how to guide for the wolves to see how to counter play any strategy.
Does this mean you and BDS are the wolves and you want to play corner strategy and ensure you two survive until end game
No, Im just running through the possibilities and trying to figure out which option is better.
I've been back and forth about the strategy, especially considering if Math is a wolf then playing the corner strategy pins the wolves, since choosing the center would lose them the TTT game. They'd have to rely on 3 mislynches.
to be fair, I don't see a huge difference between playing corner and center, if the wolves respond with center to our corner. The whole rest of the game is basically just dictated by what the previous team did last time, save for the 3rd overall move, at which point we probably won't know enough to make the right decision for certain
Quote from: XiaoMigros on November 06, 2023, 10:01:46 AMsave for the 3rd overall move
I think that's the point though, playing middle on turn 1 puts the town in the drivers seat the entire time, even if it's just to a draw.
Playing corner on turn 1 could potentially pin the wolves is Math is a wolf, but if they play middle on N1, we will have to play defense on our 3rd turn.
nvm i miscalculated
If we go middle, we essentially control the play, even if it will result in a tie. We can force play on one side of the board and get specific people wolfed during the nights. However, we do commit to not winning TTT, which seems fine given its a solved game.
If we go corner, things are much more scripted. The optimal strategy would say the wolves kill the center, which then forces us to play defense for our 3rd turn, although we could potentially tailor it to one side of the board, depending on where we play turn 2. If they don't take the middle, Math could be a wolf, or it could be a ploy to get us to mislynch 3 times. At any point, we could abandon the strategy and play for a tie in order to force the wolves to kill someone specific at night.
Seems like musical poet and math are still to post
I'll start the votes with
mathguy
Math guys profile shows he has been online so I wonder if he's trying to adopt his wolf strategy from last game and keep quiet when under pressure lol
bruh when did the game start
Quote from: A# Minor on November 06, 2023, 08:57:30 AMwhy do you guys have to be so active while i'm sleeping??
why are you not twg'ing while sleepingQuote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 09:43:38 AMDoes this mean you and BDS are the wolves and you want to play corner strategy and ensure you two survive until end game
I've been dubious of the corner strat ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 06, 2023, 04:14:47 PMbruh when did the game start
November 05, 2023, 06:00:04 PM Pacific Time
I wanna hear more from Poet and A# especially, as well as mathguy himself of course. If he's human, now's the best time to hear his thoughts, even if we are planning to go through with lynching him for the center square.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 06, 2023, 05:34:25 PMwhy are you not twg'ing while sleeping
twg'ing while driving is the new pro gamer move
I'll take the blame (if there is any) over pushing a corner strategy. I figured it was good since it provides the best way to win via TTT, and it pushes the wolves into a weird situation if Math is a wolf.
The more I think about it, the less likely it is for anyone to win via TTT, and the odds of Math being a wolf aren't worth playing the corner strategy imo.
Playing center likely will cause a tie, but we'll be controlling the board much better than if the wolves take middle. We can attempt to keep play away from the IC as well. I think it's the move.
Comfortable voting Math for now, but I'll be open to changing.
24 hours remaining!
Current vote count:
therealmathguy — 2 (Toby, SpecsFlyer17)
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 07:18:53 AMIf math guy is a wolf sucks for him because he is defo dying either today or tonight lol
Looks like I'm dying, wolf or not
Nice playing with you all :'(
But seriously, I think offing me for tic-tac-toe could be a good strategy, though I'd prefer the corner strat since I know my role. With town start and two squares wolves can't hit on the board, they're almost certain not to win via TTT, so being more relaxed on TTT and hunting wolves could be an option.
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 03:26:22 PMMath guys profile shows he has been online so I wonder if he's trying to adopt his wolf strategy from last game and keep quiet when under pressure lol
Oh yeah I should change this but I typically have the tab open from game start to end even if I'm not actively checking it, so don't look into it too much
If we get the center, we can go searching for the wolves and defend the TTT.
btw just a warning. Until Wednesday, I now have limited time to go on TWG due to some complications, so expect slow responding.
Brief thoughts on players thus far:
- Toby and Specs are unlikely to be wolf partners together; if they are, they're doing a good job at appearing genuinely at odds with one another. My initial inclination is slight wolf lean on Specs, slight human lean on Toby.
- Slight human lean on Xiao. Seems pretty typical Xiao behavior at this point.
- Slight wolf lean on TZP. Feels like most of what he's done so far is to not be disagreeable to anyone, which feels almost as if he's playing things a bit too safe.
A#, Poet, and Math haven't posted enough to get a good lean on, though I would have expected A# to be at least a little more active at this point in the game.
oh damn, i didnt post at all today?
so lets go for a corner and lynch poet since she wont be on anyway
seriously though, I'm still not too sure about focusing on the tic tac toe, but usually when I play, a corner gives me a bit more control... this is a real tiny board though
I really need to spend some time to play when it's not almost 2 am
A little bit sus:
specs- same vibes as last game start. if we lynch center and math is human, gets more human points
a# minor- possibly a new wolf who isnt sure what to say
tzp- pretty quiet and not contributing as much, for tzp standards
poet- not this again
less sus
math- doesnt matter if theyre sus or not, they're gonna end up lynched and aren't really putting up a fight (fair)
bds- clearing me is odd behavior for someone who would be trying to blend in super hard
toby- i always read toby as human but they might not be
not sus
thc- you are innocent
me- i am innocent
i vote math btw
time to attempt a suspicion list... <:
wolf lean:
tzp: he's been sort of alarmingly quiet lately
specs: hasn't done anything too suspicious yet but something... doesn't feel right (oof)
bds: i naturally have a slight wolf lean on you, but so far your posts seem okay
null ig:
poet: please start being readable kthx
math: i can't read you either D:
human lean:
toby: nothing sus yet
xiao: looks like xiao being xiao, but still very hard to read... human for now ig
THC: super sus, he's definitely a wolf, lynch him right now!!
ok time to go to bed and miss all the action again
A#'s suspicion list kinda rubs me the wrong way :thinking: Aside from TZP and Specs being wolf leaned (as both Xiao and I seemed to agree upon as well), my placement in the list feels a bit weird and contradictory.
Gonna avoid voting for math at the moment to avoid accidental insta.
what's wrong with an insta?
Wolf Lean
A#: Posts have been absent and pretty unhelpful imo. Yesterday logged in, posted how there was activity while asleep, and then didn't contribute at all. My initial reaction is she's a wolf and is a bit unsure of the way to proceed, so she's siding on the quiet side. Suspicion post seems pretty vanilla.
Slight Wolf Lean
Xiao: Slightly confused why you're getting similar vibes from me as last game. Last time, I was on the road for 8+ hours a day, resulting in me missing stuff, repeating things that were already said, etc. I've been one of the more active players this time.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on November 06, 2023, 11:43:03 PMif we lynch center and math is human, gets more human points
Cardflips are off. May be just an oversight, but we won't know if Math is a wolf, so it's odd to include that in a suspicion post.
Neutral Lean
Math: Probably will be lynched. Post appeared pretty human, but it's likely irrelevant being in the center square.
Poet: Not posted a whole lot, hard to read right now. Did come in and explain that they'll be a bit inactive due to IRL stuff, which could be genuine or a fake alibi.
TZP: I feel that A# and Xiao jumped on your inactivity a little too harshly. Posts have felt safe, but nothing too wolfy. Contributed a fair amount early to the TTT discussion. No read yet.
Slight Human Lean
BDS: Suspicion post read pretty well. Some good TTT discussion regarding strategy early on. Posts felt a bit safe, but nothing alarming.
Toby: Very helpful discussion regarding corner vs middle TTT play. Suggestions and discussions have appeared helpful to the town. Didn't love that he called me out for posting the strategy link when a) BDS literally asked for it, and b) the wolves could easily have looked that up on their own, and likely would have to avoid a mistake.
Human Lean
THC: Is the IC
Host Lean
Oricorio: Set up the game, sent role PMs, clarified rules questions, and won the hosting poll. Probably host imo.
GTH I say A# and Xiao are the wolves, but playing center square D1 (or D0 idk) is the move.
The downside of instaing is that it shortcircuits the humans' strongest power—discussing and controlling the lynch. Instaing Math might ultimately have the same result as letting the lynch play out for the whole day, but it removes the possibility that more discussion will lead to a wolf slipping up.
Anyway, sad to see people wolfreading me for being quiet, as I've been on the road for a friend's engagement party, which Specs and Math can verify. I'll have more thoughts about strategy a little bit later today. Honestly I think it'd be more fun to try to win off of an aggressive corner opener lol, but I agree that hedging bets by lynching Math regardless of alignment is probably the safest play.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 07, 2023, 06:36:38 AMThe downside of instaing is that it shortcircuits the humans' strongest power—discussing and controlling the lynch. Instaing Math might ultimately have the same result as letting the lynch play out for the whole day, but it removes the possibility that more discussion will lead to a wolf slipping up.
Ah okay, I
unvote then assuming that's possible
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 07, 2023, 06:29:23 AMSlight Wolf Lean
Xiao: Slightly confused why you're getting similar vibes from me as last game. Last time, I was on the road for 8+ hours a day, resulting in me missing stuff, repeating things that were already said, etc. I've been one of the more active players this time.
I said vibes not activity or message content
as for the cardflip thing, i forgor about that :skull:
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 07, 2023, 06:29:23 AMA#: Posts have been absent and pretty unhelpful imo. Yesterday logged in, posted how there was activity while asleep, and then didn't contribute at all. My initial reaction is she's a wolf and is a bit unsure of the way to proceed, so she's siding on the quiet side. Suspicion post seems pretty vanilla.
you dont wanna know what happened yesterday <: I am aware of that, but as I said, I need to put in more effort during the day and not at 2 am when I lose brain cells
day start games naturally freak me out
yeah, it's called an insomnia list
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 07, 2023, 06:07:25 AMA#'s suspicion list kinda rubs me the wrong way :thinking: Aside from TZP and Specs being wolf leaned (as both Xiao and I seemed to agree upon as well), my placement in the list feels a bit weird and contradictory.
ooops, I was actually supposed to put you under "null ig"
so if we are basing our lynch off of the board, it looks like we're going for the center, right?
meh, i cant decide which one is better
safety on poet
Something else I've thought of regarding board strategy. It is very much in the wolves' interest for us to be forced to lynch THC in order to block them. Say we lynch A1, the wolves wolf B2, and then we lynch C3 in order to try to force the pincer a la that video Specs sent. The wolves could hit C2 nd force us to lynch our one confirmed human on A2 to block their TTT win. Being forced to lynch THC removes a confirmed human from the pool. It's in our best interest to keep him alive; another way of saying this is that incentives for the wolves to play on the right side of the board are preferable to incentives for the wolves to play on the left side of the board.
It seems like we're hitting the middle today, which works with what I'm pointing out, but if we were to lynch a corner today, and if we lynch a corner tomorrow, I think it should be me or Poet, since we are both in possible TTT wins with THC. This disincentivizes the wolves from choosing THC and prompts them to wolf someone who is not a confirmed human.
Discuss.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 07, 2023, 02:41:00 PMSomething else I've thought of regarding board strategy. It is very much in the wolves' interest for us to be forced to lynch THC in order to block them. Say we lynch A1, the wolves wolf B2, and then we lynch C3 in order to try to force the pincer a la that video Specs sent. The wolves could hit C2 nd force us to lynch our one confirmed human on A2 to block their TTT win. Being forced to lynch THC removes a confirmed human from the pool. It's in our best interest to keep him alive; another way of saying this is that incentives for the wolves to play on the right side of the board are preferable to incentives for the wolves to play on the left side of the board.
It seems like we're hitting the middle today, which works with what I'm pointing out, but if we were to lynch a corner today, and if we lynch a corner tomorrow, I think it should be me or Poet, since we are both in possible TTT wins with THC. This disincentivizes the wolves from choosing THC and prompts them to wolf someone who is not a confirmed human.
Discuss.
It still disincentivizes wolves to target THC if you lynch me, but I see where you're coming from.
Safety
poet
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 07, 2023, 02:41:00 PMSomething else I've thought of regarding board strategy. It is very much in the wolves' interest for us to be forced to lynch THC in order to block them. Say we lynch A1, the wolves wolf B2, and then we lynch C3 in order to try to force the pincer a la that video Specs sent. The wolves could hit C2 nd force us to lynch our one confirmed human on A2 to block their TTT win. Being forced to lynch THC removes a confirmed human from the pool. It's in our best interest to keep him alive; another way of saying this is that incentives for the wolves to play on the right side of the board are preferable to incentives for the wolves to play on the left side of the board.
It seems like we're hitting the middle today, which works with what I'm pointing out, but if we were to lynch a corner today, and if we lynch a corner tomorrow, I think it should be me or Poet, since we are both in possible TTT wins with THC. This disincentivizes the wolves from choosing THC and prompts them to wolf someone who is not a confirmed human.
Discuss.
We won't win TTT
Best way to play is stay in control and have the wolves chasing after us to block
Keeps us in control
Let's play centre
Quote from: threalmathguy on November 07, 2023, 02:57:00 PMIt still disincentivizes wolves to target THC if you lynch me, but I see where you're coming from.
Safety poet
A# already voted poet so you shouldn't 'safety' her
Safety someone with no votes if need be
KitB right now.
I agree that keeping THC alive is preferable, and by playing middle, we can drive the direction of the board.
I don't love that Math safetied on someone already with a vote forcing a KitB (although there will be more votes tonight) tbh.
I called it "Safety" just in case I am unable to vote again before phase end. But I'm voting poet to support the corner strat.
Again, both corner and middle are valid (so I don't care about KitB) and I'd understand voting for me, but I won't be voting for myself since I know my role and I'm taking my chances on the 2/7
Wolves will probably get me if I'm not voted but I still think they wouldn't win TTT and we'd still hold the power on the board
More people vote middle math please as phase ends in 1.5 hours I believe
The corner strat doesn't work because the wolves know how to counter it
Which means we won't win TTT
and also means day 3 the wolves have forced our lynch as they will have 2 in a row come day 3. Which means unless we lynch a wolf today or tomorrow we lose.
You could say today we are being forced to choose the middle, but at least we are being forced day 1, rather than being forced day 3, where we will have a lot more information
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 07, 2023, 06:29:23 AMHost Lean
Oricorio: Set up the game, sent role PMs, clarified rules questions, and won the hosting poll. Probably host imo.
doubtQuote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 07, 2023, 06:36:38 AMThe downside of instaing is that it shortcircuits the humans' strongest power—discussing and controlling the lynch. Instaing Math might ultimately have the same result as letting the lynch play out for the whole day, but it removes the possibility that more discussion will lead to a wolf slipping up.
Anyway, sad to see people wolfreading me for being quiet, as I've been on the road for a friend's engagement party, which Specs and Math can verify. I'll have more thoughts about strategy a little bit later today. Honestly I think it'd be more fun to try to win off of an aggressive corner opener lol, but I agree that hedging bets by lynching Math regardless of alignment is probably the safest play.
Agree. Plus, an insta gets rid of the possibility of us changing our mind later in the phase, which is an option we always want available to us just in case.
Also, makes sense, and I agree that I can't hold that against you specifically. That being said, I still feel like the contents of your posts have been playing things a bit safe.
GTH thinking A#/Specs most likely wolf pair.
Quote from: A# Minor on November 07, 2023, 09:06:16 AMooops, I was actually supposed to put you under "null ig"
sure you were :P
Quoteso if we are basing our lynch off of the board, it looks like we're going for the center, right?
Yes.
Safety on
Xiao for now, will likely change to math soon.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 07, 2023, 02:41:00 PMSomething else I've thought of regarding board strategy. It is very much in the wolves' interest for us to be forced to lynch THC in order to block them. Say we lynch A1, the wolves wolf B2, and then we lynch C3 in order to try to force the pincer a la that video Specs sent. The wolves could hit C2 nd force us to lynch our one confirmed human on A2 to block their TTT win. Being forced to lynch THC removes a confirmed human from the pool. It's in our best interest to keep him alive; another way of saying this is that incentives for the wolves to play on the right side of the board are preferable to incentives for the wolves to play on the left side of the board.
It seems like we're hitting the middle today, which works with what I'm pointing out, but if we were to lynch a corner today, and if we lynch a corner tomorrow, I think it should be me or Poet, since we are both in possible TTT wins with THC. This disincentivizes the wolves from choosing THC and prompts them to wolf someone who is not a confirmed human.
Discuss.
Makes sense, but regardless, if we anticipate them trying to force a THC lynch we have the opportunity to pre-empt that if absolutely necessary.
Quote from: Toby on November 07, 2023, 04:39:57 PMThe corner strat doesn't work because the wolves know how to counter it
Which means we won't win TTT
and also means day 3 the wolves have forced our lynch as they will have 2 in a row come day 3. Which means unless we lynch a wolf today or tomorrow we lose.
You could say today we are being forced to choose the middle, but at least we are being forced day 1, rather than being forced day 3, where we will have a lot more information
My biggest issue with the corner strat is that wolves can more easily manipulate us into staying away from their squares—if we don't hit a wolf, there are only 5 TTT turns (3 lynches and 2 wolfings), which makes it basically impossible to win via TTT, so the wolves would be more worried about us hitting a wolf than winning via TTT. If we take center it more clearly choreographs which squares they're trying to get us to avoid, and gives us more freedom to either "ignore" their plays or block them off.
If Math is a wolf, I'd rather just play center now and take him out, opposed to play corner and let the wolves figure out how to handle that.
If Math is a wolf and we play corner, they don't necessarily have to play center. They could easily pick a "losing" square and commit to us mislynching. There is a path where we play a corner, they play a corner (which commits to losing in 7 turns), and nobody touches the center square until after 5 turns. Mislynch 3 times and thats game.
Center has to be the move. TTT is going to drive lynches and wolfings, but no one is going to actually win TTT imo
Reminder that you have a little under an hour left!
Yeah sorry Math, rolling middle kinda blows. See you in the postgame
threalmathguy
Here's hoping we're lucky enough for him to be a wolf.
Oricorio btw when I first saw you say "GTH wolf" in my game the only thing that I could think it meant was "go to hell wolf" lol
imma go ahead and insta (?) 3 minutes before phase end because why not
math
therealmathguy — 5 (Toby, SpecsFlyer17, TheZeldaPianist275, BlackDragonSlayer, A# Minor)
Musical Poet — 1 (threalmathguy)
threalmathguy has been lynched!
| TheZeldaPianist275 | BlackDragonSlayer | A# Minor |
| ThatHiddenCharacter (IC) | X | SpecsFlyer17 |
| The Musical Poet | Toby | XiaoMigros |
N1 starts now and ends in 24 hours!
Are Phantoms in play?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on November 06, 2023, 11:43:03 PMpoet- not this again
haha i told you i didn't have much time
Quote from: A# Minor on November 07, 2023, 01:01:52 PMmeh, i cant decide which one is better
safety on poet
wow so rude smh my head
also spec's going to die tonight.
if wolves don't kill him humans win day 1. So, unless he's a wolf he dies
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 07, 2023, 06:21:24 PMalso spec's going to die tonight.
(https://i.imgur.com/sss3svb.jpg)
Poet, what makes you say that humans can win next day unless I'm lynched?
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 07, 2023, 06:21:24 PMalso spec's going to die tonight.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 07, 2023, 06:22:31 PMif wolves don't kill him humans win day 1. So, unless he's a wolf he dies
hwhat now
Mind explaining your reasoning?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 07, 2023, 06:06:20 PMAre Phantoms in play?
Yes, and ThatHiddenCharacter and The Musical Poet have them. While XiaoMigros didn't technically vote at EoD, they had a vote and then unvoted, and since phantom votes are supposed to discourage inactivity I don't think it would be fair to give one to Xiao here. Basically, vote at least once in a phase and you're good.
Phantoms aren't usually given out in the event of an insta as a general rule. A# technically insta'd Math, so this may be a TWC question, but I believe that THC and Poet should not have them
sorry, forgot to change my vote before phase end!
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 07, 2023, 06:52:18 PMhwhat now
Mind explaining your reasoning?
oh wait. uh mistake. i mixed up ic and x ;-;
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 07, 2023, 07:14:42 PMPhantoms aren't usually given out in the event of an insta as a general rule. A# technically insta'd Math, so this may be a TWC question, but I believe that THC and Poet should not have them
I'd say, by technicality, it was indeed an insta (even if it was only two-ish minutes before the actual phase end), so I would agree with that.
I had a brainfart I swear
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 07, 2023, 09:52:39 PMoh wait. uh mistake. i mixed up ic and x ;-;
I'm still not sure what that means.
Oh, you mixed up the symbols for Innocent Child (IC) and X?
I... guess? ???
the heck was that, poet
if the wolves wolf specs, then we're not gonna win on day 1
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 07, 2023, 10:10:57 PMI'm still not sure what that means.
for some strange reason, I somehow assumed Innocent Child was an X, so uh I immediately thought Specs was going to die.
Quote from: A# Minor on November 07, 2023, 10:13:14 PMthe heck was that, poet
if the wolves wolf specs, then we're not gonna win on day 1
shut up, my nonsleep tendencies finally caught up to me
damn preview button has to be right next to the post button
Quote from: A# Minor on November 07, 2023, 10:13:14 PMit doesn't matter if the wolves wolf specs or not, because we're not gonna win on day 1
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 07, 2023, 10:14:56 PMshut up, my nonsleep tendencies finally caught up to me
welp. i feel you
Quote from: A# Minor on November 07, 2023, 10:16:26 PMdamn preview button has to be right next to the post button
stoopid.
also watch as I get wolfed for winning twice in a row without being useful to the game
Quote from: A# Minor on November 07, 2023, 10:17:08 PMwelp. i feel you
side effect of staying up to 5am doing work
and now I'm alone again. darn
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 07, 2023, 10:17:23 PMstoopid.
yo i didnt make this forum
Quotealso watch as I get wolfed for winning twice in a row without being useful to the game
lol that would be funny. would be your first loss (?)
I take back what I said a minute ago.
also, I'm going to make a suspicions list tomorrow if I'm not dead.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 07, 2023, 10:17:57 PMside effect of staying up to 5am doing work
sleep is good
friendly reminder to all people to get a healthy amount of sleep every night <3
Quote from: A# Minor on November 07, 2023, 10:21:15 PMlol that would be funny. would be your first loss (?)
better than getting an
another free win, but ig last game I was better but I spoke more in the DMs than in the actual thing :>
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 07, 2023, 10:24:35 PMfriendly reminder to all people to get a healthy amount of sleep every night <3
nah
jk i'll fix my sleep schedule lol
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 07, 2023, 10:24:35 PMsleep is good
friendly reminder to all people to get a healthy amount of sleep every night <3
thanks, i think i need this reminder
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 07, 2023, 10:24:53 PMbetter than getting an another free win, but ig last game I was better but I spoke more in the DMs than in the actual thing :>
oof XD
oof indeed -v-
Yeah... IC is not an X.
Not a whole lot to discuss tonight imo. Where the wolves decide to play tonight will shape a lot.
On a quick re read only thing I noticed is that all of TZPs posts seem to be serious/thought out so far. Could suggest him trying to be careful in everything he says
But having a flick through his last wolf game in the numbers TWG, he didn't have a similar personality at all. So I can't say his personality is similar to his last wolf game but maybe playing careful could be alignment indicative if he's feeling more pressure this game.
Not sure just an observation
Also reread the thread. I think just because of the progression of this conversation making a suspicion list is difficult—we've all basically agreed with each other on the best thing to do—but I'll give my top three.
1. Poet—the post where you said "if we get the center we can go after wolves and defend TTT" or something like that struck me as odd. The unprompted, bandwagoning nature of it feels like it easily could have been a wolf partner prompting you to express agreement with the general consensus
2. Xiao—the thing that Toby just pointed out about my posts having a different tone this game I feel could just as easily apply to you. I'm used to you being more off-the-wall than you've played this game. Your posts feel very calculated, and while that could be because you are just more experienced and know how the game works now, it stands out.
3. A#—I agree with the consensus that you're being unusually quiet. First-time wolves often tiptoe, and that's the impression I get here.
Toby and BDS feel like business as usual to me. Not sure about Specs. I also think that Math was probably human, and that if he had been a wolf he would have defended himself by coming out swinging a lot harder on the merits of the corner opening strat.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 08, 2023, 03:28:02 PM1. Poet—the post where you said "if we get the center we can go after wolves and defend TTT" or something like that struck me as odd. The unprompted, bandwagoning nature of it feels like it easily could have been a wolf partner prompting you to express agreement with the general consensus
basic strategy for funny tic tac toe, i do this all the time when I'm not first and the other guy uses corner strat
Official Suspicion List:
SUSPICIOUS:
- SpecsFlyer17: Aside from what I mentioned last time, it feels like his posts have been contradictory and jumping back and forth. He initial seemed to go pretty hard to advocate for the corner strat, but seemed to have a rather sudden change of heart (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12818.msg438778#msg438778) toward the end of the phase. If Math was a wolf, Specs is a good potential partner.
- A# Minor: A combination of being rather quite and having quite a sketchy suspicion list that really struck me the wrong way.
Lil' Suspicious:
- The Musical Poet: Some weird/erratic behavior, combined with general quietness overall. I hope to see you try and make at least one wallpost before the game is over!!! :P
- TheZeldaPianist275: Posts generally feel a bit on the safer side, aside from his most recent post, which does bring up some perspectives I haven't really seen other people talk about (i.e. discussion about Xiao and Math, although I personally disagree with both).
Bit Human:
- Toby: Seems to be usual Toby at this point in the game. Has been helpful and making good, sound arguments to back up his points.
- XiaoMigros: Normally I'd be a bit more unsure about Xiao, but after the past two games I think I've started getting a bit more of a grip on human Xiao. That being said, I haven't seen wolf Xiao to compare to, sooooooo
Most Definitely Human:
- BlackDragonSlayer: I, for one, trust myself.
- ThatHiddenCharacter: I trust this man more than I trust myself.
was going to ask what a wallpost was, then I realized
XiaoMigros has died in the night!
Current board:
| TheZeldaPianist275 | BlackDragonSlayer | A# Minor |
| ThatHiddenCharacter (IC) | X | SpecsFlyer17 |
| The Musical Poet | Toby | O |
It is now D2, which will last for 48 hours!
Note: I decided not to apply phantom votes this phase, since I didn't announce they were going to be on beforehand. If you don't vote in this phase or in a later day phase, however, they will be applied.
...interesting. Glad to see my XiaoRadar is getting better, but I have to wonder why Xiao?
Wolves playing a corner basically means we're playing for a tie. And edge would led to a town victory in 7 turns.
why 7?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 08, 2023, 06:27:50 PMWolves playing a corner basically means we're playing for a tie. And edge would led to a town victory in 7 turns.
Would you say that makes it more likely for Math to have been a wolf? As if both wolves were still alive, they'd be fine wolfing THC.
Isn't that not optimal TTT strategy
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 08, 2023, 06:30:22 PMwhy 7?
That's just the natural progression of the game. If the 2nd player plays an edge after the 1st player plays middle, the 1st player will pin and win on the 7th overall turn.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 08, 2023, 06:42:41 PMWould you say that makes it more likely for Math to have been a wolf? As if both wolves were still alive, they'd be fine wolfing THC.
If Math was a wolf, picking an edge would have been a death sentence. They would have had to play a corner to have any shot at winning, barring an extremely TTT blunder.
If Math wasn't a wolf, they could have taken a gamble and played edge, which commits them to try and get 3 mislynches.
I'd say it doesn't really tell us a whole lot about Math. In either case, playing corner makes a little more sense for the wolves imo. Just because they played corner doesn't mean they had to.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 08, 2023, 06:42:41 PMWould you say that makes it more likely for Math to have been a wolf? As if both wolves were still alive, they'd be fine wolfing THC.
Oh, I see what you're saying.
As I previously mentioned, if they did wolf THC, Math would be confirmed not a wolf.
That being said, THCs presence is going to become more and more problematic for the wolves as the game progresses. I haven't ran through all the move permutations yet, but I think we're in control of how the board plays out, and thus can keep THC alive. Eventually, I could see situations where having a confirmed human would be able to expose the wolves via voting trends.
Killing THC would have been safe for the wolves in the long game, but it would have exposed Math not being a wolf (since playing an edge with a wolf down is a losing path for the wolves). Since they chose to to keep THC alive (which does have risk, since they may not get another chance to kill him), it could indicate that Math was a wolf, and keeping THC alive (by playing corner) was the only option for them.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 08, 2023, 05:36:11 PMSUSPICIOUS:
- SpecsFlyer17: Aside from what I mentioned last time, it feels like his posts have been contradictory and jumping back and forth. He initial seemed to go pretty hard to advocate for the corner strat, but seemed to have a rather sudden change of heart (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12818.msg438778#msg438778) toward the end of the phase. If Math was a wolf, Specs is a good potential partner.
I'll own up to flipping my opinion from the corner strategy to middle. I know that it inherently looks suspicious, but I got a little too wrapped up in trying to win TTT instead of controlling the board and controlling the lynches/wolfings.
Interesting thoughts and observations on the implications of the wolfing, BDS and Specs. I think that that is a plausible explanation for avoiding THC, although I could also see it being a mindgame. If Math was a wolf, they would have to pick a corner, but if Math was human, they could hit either a corner or the confirmed human.
So right now, the game profile is that whoever we lynch, the wolves will have to wolf the person opposite them in order to avoid losing to the TTT win condition—the exception of course being me, since the person opposite me is now dead. I suggest that, in addition to the suspicion lists we've been putting out, we each rank the pairs of opposite players that we'd be most comfortable with getting killed, since whoever we lynch will have the opposite player killed the following night. The pairs being:
-Me & ???
-BDS & Toby
-A# & Poet
-Specs & THC
I want to sleep on this, but right now I'd say that I'd rank those pairs A#/Poet, BDS/Toby, THC/Specs, me/whoever, in order of "would most like to lynch" to "would least like to lynch". THC, I'd appreciate your thoughts on this in particular.
Another thought.
There are 7 spaces that we can play this phase. One is THC, and that would be silly to play. So let's call it 6.
Of those 6 options, 5 of those choices will forces the wolves' move on N2. Example, if we lynch A#, the wolves have to wolf Poet on N2.
The only space where that is not the case is TZP. If we lynch TZP, the wolves get options on N2. That appears like a bad play, since we want to "stay in the drivers seat".
But what if the N1 play on Xiao was intended to protect TZP? We've discussed "controlling the board" a lot, but what if the wolves attempted to take advantage of that strategy? wolf!TZP would be hiding up there in the corner, clearly not the target of today's lynch since it doesn't force a wolfing move N2. But, it keeps a wolf alive, which if Math wasn't a wolf, means one more mislynch ends the game.
I haven't ran through the board possibilities if we do lynch the TZP square, and I'll look into that. It may be incredibly dumb from a board control perspective to give the wolves options on N2.
Just thought I'd throw that out there. Thoughts?
Ninja'd by TZP, who mentioned the idea of the TZP square not having a forced move, but not stating it as a wolf strategy/ploy.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 08, 2023, 07:40:09 PMOh, I see what you're saying.
As I previously mentioned, if they did wolf THC, Math would be confirmed not a wolf.
That being said, THCs presence is going to become more and more problematic for the wolves as the game progresses. I haven't ran through all the move permutations yet, but I think we're in control of how the board plays out, and thus can keep THC alive. Eventually, I could see situations where having a confirmed human would be able to expose the wolves via voting trends.
Killing THC would have been safe for the wolves in the long game, but it would have exposed Math not being a wolf (since playing an edge with a wolf down is a losing path for the wolves). Since they chose to to keep THC alive (which does have risk, since they may not get another chance to kill him), it could indicate that Math was a wolf, and keeping THC alive (by playing corner) was the only option for them.
That makes sense. The only question is why Xiao specifically? Are they deliberately trying to bait us into lynching one of the other corners, perhaps? Because that's the obvious possible mindgame that stands out to me.
As you might be able to guess from my suspicion list, I'm ok with lynching any of Specs, A#, Poet, and TZP this phase, with priority on the first three.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 08, 2023, 08:09:40 PMInteresting thoughts and observations on the implications of the wolfing, BDS and Specs. I think that that is a plausible explanation for avoiding THC, although I could also see it being a mindgame. If Math was a wolf, they would have to pick a corner, but if Math was human, they could hit either a corner or the confirmed human.
So right now, the game profile is that whoever we lynch, the wolves will have to wolf the person opposite them in order to avoid losing to the TTT win condition—the exception of course being me, since the person opposite me is now dead. I suggest that, in addition to the suspicion lists we've been putting out, we each rank the pairs of opposite players that we'd be most comfortable with getting killed, since whoever we lynch will have the opposite player killed the following night. The pairs being:
-Me & ???
-BDS & Toby
-A# & Poet
-Specs & THC
I want to sleep on this, but right now I'd say that I'd rank those pairs A#/Poet, BDS/Toby, THC/Specs, me/whoever, in order of "would most like to lynch" to "would least like to lynch". THC, I'd appreciate your thoughts on this in particular.
So far I'd say, in order from most to least:
- A# & Poet
- Specs & THC
- TZP & ???
- BDS & Toby
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 08, 2023, 08:15:19 PMThe only space where that is not the case is TZP. If we lynch TZP, the wolves get options on N2. That appears like a bad play, since we want to "stay in the drivers seat".
But what if the N1 play on Xiao was intended to protect TZP? We've discussed "controlling the board" a lot, but what if the wolves attempted to take advantage of that strategy? wolf!TZP would be hiding up there in the corner, clearly not the target of today's lynch since it doesn't force a wolfing move N2. But, it keeps a wolf alive, which if Math wasn't a wolf, means one more mislynch ends the game.
That's an interesting idea, but at the same time, that play could be designed to put more suspicion on TZP, who already has at least mild levels of suspicion all around.
My thought is, perhaps, the wolves are deliberately trying to aim the lynch toward A# and Poet, possibly because Toby and/or Specs are wolves. Both have picked up a fair amount of suspicion and would be likely lynch candidates regardless, which is why Xiao was wolfed instead of one of them or TZP.
I thought of this earlier but didn't have time to post.
What if we deliberately try to force the wolves to wolf? It's a slight gamble since it bets that Math is not a wolf, which is uncertain. However, if this isn't the case, we could trap the wolves into revealing themselves, since they can't wolf themselves.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 08, 2023, 10:07:18 PMI thought of this earlier but didn't have time to post.
What if we deliberately try to force the wolves to wolf? It's a slight gamble since it bets that Math is not a wolf, which is uncertain. However, if this isn't the case, we could trap the wolves into revealing themselves, since they can't wolf themselves.
Is there anything saying the wolves
can't wolf themselves? Not that they'd want to, necessarily, but in a game like this is seems like the option would at least be open to them.
Go ahead and elaborate, though. I'm curious what you're thinking of.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 08, 2023, 07:47:30 PMI'll own up to flipping my opinion from the corner strategy to middle. I know that it inherently looks suspicious, but I got a little too wrapped up in trying to win TTT instead of controlling the board and controlling the lynches/wolfings.
I find changing opinions mostly non alignment indicative. It's only trait is consideration of another persons point of view/argument.
Take Davy as an example in the assassin game who was lynched for changing his viewpoint day 1 but was human
The Xiao wolfing does make me a bit sus of TZP for 2 reasons:
1. It basically secures we won't lynch TZP today as we can't force the wolfing that way
2. TZP rated Xiao high on his sus list just before and I think a wolf seeing Xiao high on a sus list would be more cautious about lynching Xiao
I feel like poet might have been a safer option for a wolfing ?
I read Xiao as human because he read BDS as sus for 'clearing' him, but I just think it's a bit odd Xiao was ranked high on a sus list during night 1 and was wolfed when there could be better options
To perhaps contradict myself above I am leaning towards lynching A#/poet only because on paper it's the best % chance of getting a wolf for me personally.
But I feel like poets behaviour is quite scatty this game compared to her last wolf game so I think she's just a genuine human coming out her shell more. A# could be more questionable
But my gut at moment has me feeling TZP/Specs pairing tbh and I want to look into that more but I don't think either are the optimal lynching for today as if we are wrong and go TZP, the wolves force our hand day 3, and if we are wrong with Specs, we end up losing our confirmed human that could have been prevented.
If we get poet/A# off the board that at least clears those for us and we can have a better opportunity into day 3 to lynch wolf if it's 2v3 - with us having a confirmed human
I'm still catching up on topic, catching a flight rn to london for work so got a busy day today
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 08, 2023, 10:31:20 PMIs there anything saying the wolves can't wolf themselves? Not that they'd want to, necessarily, but in a game like this is seems like the option would at least be open to them.
Go ahead and elaborate, though. I'm curious what you're thinking of.
I assumed wolves could wolf themselves this game, or in any game really but obviously has like no benefit in others
Quote from: Toby on November 08, 2023, 10:53:26 PMThe Xiao wolfing does make me a bit sus of TZP for 2 reasons:
1. It basically secures we won't lynch TZP today as we can't force the wolfing that way
2. TZP rated Xiao high on his sus list just before and I think a wolf seeing Xiao high on a sus list would be more cautious about lynching Xiao
To add to point 2. I'm trying to say that TZP maybe put Xiao high on his sus list then wolfed him to try make it look like an unlikely play from him
Having slept on things, there is a danger with lynching TZP.
If we lynch TZP and arr wrong, combined with Math being a human, the wolves can force the 3rd lynch to end the game. This actually only is relevant (I think) if Specs/A# or Toby/Poet is the pairing. If Math and TZP were human, the wolves could play human!Specs on N2, forcing us to play human!Toby, which would be 3 mislynches and game.
I suppose the odds of those being the wolf pairings are quite low, but if it's something to consider if we play TZP this phase- it could seal the game.
Quote from: Toby on November 08, 2023, 10:53:26 PMThe Xiao wolfing does make me a bit sus of TZP for 2 reasons:
1. It basically secures we won't lynch TZP today as we can't force the wolfing that way
2. TZP rated Xiao high on his sus list just before and I think a wolf seeing Xiao high on a sus list would be more cautious about lynching Xiao
Couldn't one also argue that someone who thought of this possibility could possibly have killed Xiao so they could make this argument to frame TZP? In fact, the probability of that being the case seems high enough to me that I think there's enough reasonable doubt to not immediately think of TZP as suspicious.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 08, 2023, 08:09:40 PMTHC, I'd appreciate your thoughts on this in particular.
I think that sacrificing the IC is a last resort move (I would still believe that even if I wasn't the IC). My list for which pair I would most like to lynch/force is:
A#/Poet
BDS/Toby
TZP/null
Specs/THC
I think that there is likely a wolf in the A#/Poet pairing, though if not, it's not the end of the world. Other than that, I just never seem to trust Toby for some reason. And I already specified that I believe IC is a last resort.
Placing a tentative vote on The Musical Poet. Remember, 4 votes to insta this phase.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 08, 2023, 10:31:20 PMGo ahead and elaborate, though. I'm curious what you're thinking of.
Alright, Oricorio said that TTT takes priority in this game, so to avoid losing the wolves will have to wolf the other person on the board.
For example, if we lynched me, then they would have to wolf A# Minor. We can use this to our advantage, since I'm pretty sure wolves can't wolf themselves.
The issue is that it's a slight gamble and we can only use this method twice, but it can greatly reduce the amount of potential wolves, if we don't find one.
A# Option
Lynch A#, wolves forced to kill Poet, town forced to lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS. Then a final showdown between TZP and myself, trying to win the ICs vote.
This is very scripted, and ultimately ensures TZP, THC, and Specs make it to the final decision. This route protects the IC, which is definitely a positive. However, there isn't any flexibility for to change our lynchings to people we find suspicious.
Poet Option
Lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#, town forced to lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC. Then a final showdown between TZP, BDS, and Toby.
This is also scripted, just with different players than the A# option. The downside here is the IC isn't around for the final showdown. Again, no flexibility with the lynchings.
Specs Option
Lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC, now there are options. Every choice from that point, with exception of TZP, forces the wolves to kill someone on the following night. Lynching Poet is a TTT blunder, but it doesn't really matter since the following lynch will either kill the 2nd wolf or force parity. The other choices force a TTT tie and it's just wolf hunting from.
This option puts us in control at the expense of losing the IC. After THC is wolfed N2, we have options to traditional wolf hunt, rather than being forced to play a script.
Toby Option
Lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS, now there are options. Similar to the Specs option, although lynching specs forces wolves to kill THC for the final showdown.
This is similar to the Specs option in terms of placement, but it keeps the IC alive to the final showdown, provided Specs isn't lynched on the 3rd lynching. Slightly less flexibility for that reason, but the IC is never forced to be killed if we don't want that to happen.
BDS Option
Lynch BDS, wolves forced to kill Toby, town forced to lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#. The a final showdown between THC, TZP, and Specs.
Also scripted and keeps the IC alive to the end. No flexibility, and basically the same as the A# option, just the order of the deaths are different. Comparing the A# and BDS Option should just be based on who we think is more suspect: Toby, BDS, Poet, and A#, in an effort to find wolves and not lose after the 3rd lynch.
TZP Option
Lynch TZP, then the wolves get a choice. They could kill the IC, or try to force the town into lynching someone. If they play Toby, Poet has to be lynched. Vice versa. If they play Specs, A# has to be lynched. Vice versa.
This is a gamble play for the town. I've already talked about how the N1 Xiao killing could have been a move to protect TZP. The gamble pays off if TZP is a wolf, but its a big risk to take, sacrificing a lot of control over the wolfings and lynchings.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 09, 2023, 07:21:07 AMAlright, Oricorio said that TTT takes priority in this game, so to avoid losing the wolves will have to wolf the other person on the board.
For example, if we lynched me, then they would have to wolf A# Minor. We can use this to our advantage, since I'm pretty sure wolves can't wolf themselves.
The issue is that it's a slight gamble and we can only use this method twice, but it can greatly reduce the amount of potential wolves, if we don't find one.
I see what you're saying, but the wolves will definitely wolf themselves to avoid losing by TTT. Go read my post above to see the chain reactions. You're right that this lynch today will force the wolves to make a play (unless we take out TZP).
My Poet vote is influenced by my suspicions as well, having already taken into account what you said under the "lynch Poet" section—considering you and A# are my top suspicions already.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 09, 2023, 07:28:59 AMI see what you're saying, but the wolves will definitely wolf themselves to avoid losing by TTT. Go read my post above to see the chain reactions. You're right that this lynch today will force the wolves to make a play (unless we take out TZP).
If we assume math is a wolf, that will just lead to wolves losing.
But if he isn't a wolf, we would have less wolves at the table once the wolf dies. The issue is that we won't know if they are a wolf or not.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 09, 2023, 07:25:46 AMA# Option
Lynch A#, wolves forced to kill Poet, town forced to lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS. Then a final showdown between TZP and myself, trying to win the ICs vote.
This is very scripted, and ultimately ensures TZP, THC, and Specs make it to the final decision. This route protects the IC, which is definitely a positive. However, there isn't any flexibility for to change our lynchings to people we find suspicious.
Poet Option
Lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#, town forced to lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC. Then a final showdown between TZP, BDS, and Toby.
This is also scripted, just with different players than the A# option. The downside here is the IC isn't around for the final showdown. Again, no flexibility with the lynchings.
Specs Option
Lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC, now there are options. Every choice from that point, with exception of TZP, forces the wolves to kill someone on the following night. Lynching Poet is a TTT blunder, but it doesn't really matter since the following lynch will either kill the 2nd wolf or force parity. The other choices force a TTT tie and it's just wolf hunting from.
This option puts us in control at the expense of losing the IC. After THC is wolfed N2, we have options to traditional wolf hunt, rather than being forced to play a script.
Toby Option
Lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS, now there are options. Similar to the Specs option, although lynching specs forces wolves to kill THC for the final showdown.
This is similar to the Specs option in terms of placement, but it keeps the IC alive to the final showdown, provided Specs isn't lynched on the 3rd lynching. Slightly less flexibility for that reason, but the IC is never forced to be killed if we don't want that to happen.
BDS Option
Lynch BDS, wolves forced to kill Toby, town forced to lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#. The a final showdown between THC, TZP, and Specs.
Also scripted and keeps the IC alive to the end. No flexibility, and basically the same as the A# option, just the order of the deaths are different. Comparing the A# and BDS Option should just be based on who we think is more suspect: Toby, BDS, Poet, and A#, in an effort to find wolves and not lose after the 3rd lynch.
TZP Option
Lynch TZP, then the wolves get a choice. They could kill the IC, or try to force the town into lynching someone. If they play Toby, Poet has to be lynched. Vice versa. If they play Specs, A# has to be lynched. Vice versa.
This is a gamble play for the town. I've already talked about how the N1 Xiao killing could have been a move to protect TZP. The gamble pays off if TZP is a wolf, but its a big risk to take, sacrificing a lot of control over the wolfings and lynchings.
I find it weird this seems to be missing your opinion on what u thinking the best one
As if the logical best option kills ur wolf partner :p
Quote from: Toby on November 09, 2023, 09:36:23 AMI find it weird this seems to be missing your opinion on what u thinking the best one
As if the logical best option kills ur wolf partner :p
I really don't know yet. I'm still going over everything. Not a fan of the instigation, especially
over a post that spells out everything factually.
Quote from: Toby on November 09, 2023, 09:36:23 AMI find it weird this seems to be missing your opinion on what u thinking the best one
As if the logical best option kills ur wolf partner :p
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 09, 2023, 11:09:11 AMI really don't know yet. I'm still going over everything. Not a fan of the instigation, especially
over a post that spells out everything factually.
I have to agree with Specs about the instigation. Plus, you didn't respond to my post calling you out at all, Toby.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on November 09, 2023, 11:20:09 AMI have to agree with Specs about the instigation. Plus, you didn't respond to my post calling you out at all, Toby.
What is there to respond to? You only said you never trust me and I've been human all of the last games.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 09, 2023, 11:09:11 AMI really don't know yet. I'm still going over everything. Not a fan of the instigation, especially
over a post that spells out everything factually.
Yeah any alignment can spell things out factually. What's more helpful to the humans is analysing those facts to put forward an opinion.
Your post was helpful for everyone to see
I just wish after you made it you also provided your opinion on what you thought would be a good action to take - seeing as you already put in the effort to think about it all
Like one of Specs options had himself, THC, and TZP in a final 3 and he supplied no opinion on his thoughts of being in a final 3 where he would know for sure TZP was the last wolf ?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 09, 2023, 07:25:46 AMA# Option
Lynch A#, wolves forced to kill Poet, town forced to lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS. Then a final showdown between TZP and myself, trying to win the ICs vote.
This is very scripted, and ultimately ensures TZP, THC, and Specs make it to the final decision. This route protects the IC, which is definitely a positive. However, there isn't any flexibility for to change our lynchings to people we find suspicious.
Poet Option
Lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#, town forced to lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC. Then a final showdown between TZP, BDS, and Toby.
This is also scripted, just with different players than the A# option. The downside here is the IC isn't around for the final showdown. Again, no flexibility with the lynchings.
Specs Option
Lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC, now there are options. Every choice from that point, with exception of TZP, forces the wolves to kill someone on the following night. Lynching Poet is a TTT blunder, but it doesn't really matter since the following lynch will either kill the 2nd wolf or force parity. The other choices force a TTT tie and it's just wolf hunting from.
This option puts us in control at the expense of losing the IC. After THC is wolfed N2, we have options to traditional wolf hunt, rather than being forced to play a script.
Toby Option
Lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS, now there are options. Similar to the Specs option, although lynching specs forces wolves to kill THC for the final showdown.
This is similar to the Specs option in terms of placement, but it keeps the IC alive to the final showdown, provided Specs isn't lynched on the 3rd lynching. Slightly less flexibility for that reason, but the IC is never forced to be killed if we don't want that to happen.
BDS Option
Lynch BDS, wolves forced to kill Toby, town forced to lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#. The a final showdown between THC, TZP, and Specs.
Also scripted and keeps the IC alive to the end. No flexibility, and basically the same as the A# option, just the order of the deaths are different. Comparing the A# and BDS Option should just be based on who we think is more suspect: Toby, BDS, Poet, and A#, in an effort to find wolves and not lose after the 3rd lynch.
TZP Option
Lynch TZP, then the wolves get a choice. They could kill the IC, or try to force the town into lynching someone. If they play Toby, Poet has to be lynched. Vice versa. If they play Specs, A# has to be lynched. Vice versa.
This is a gamble play for the town. I've already talked about how the N1 Xiao killing could have been a move to protect TZP. The gamble pays off if TZP is a wolf, but its a big risk to take, sacrificing a lot of control over the wolfings and lynchings.
Between Poet and A#, I'd pick A#. The downside of going with Poet is that it eventually kills the IC, while going with A# doesn't. Both Poet and A# die first in both choices, so I'm interested in why BDS voted for Poet; voting for A# still kills Poet AND keeps the IC alive to the end. I can't fault him too much for self-preservation (since BDS dies in the A# option), but it's a little bit interesting that he quickly voted for an option that's scripted and keeps him alive to the end.
A# and BDS are scripted options that keep the IC in the final three. I'm not against doing those, but Toby's option is definitely the most flexible. Lynching me causes the IC to die, so at the risk of sounding a little wolfy, I'll go ahead and say I don't think lynching me is a good choice.
I'm not sure how I feel about the TZP option still. I'm leaning towards no, but I'll keep thinking some more. Allowing the wolves to pick the lynch on the 3rd lynch is a huge risk to take.
Quote from: Toby on November 09, 2023, 12:10:01 PMWhat is there to respond to? You only said you never trust me and I've been human all of the last games.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on November 09, 2023, 04:43:28 AMCouldn't one also argue that someone who thought of this possibility could possibly have killed Xiao so they could make this argument to frame TZP?
I'm referring to this.
These options are nice and all, but we don't know if math was a wolf or not. This means that we need to determine who we deem as safe to stay at the final showdown. THC must be at the final showdown as he is a confirmed human.
I am ok with being lynched or wolfed as I'm not the best asset later on. However, I'm not so sure about the others besides THC.
Later today once I have the time, I will make a suspicion list. I ask for you guys to do the same.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on November 09, 2023, 01:21:42 PMI'm referring to this.
Oh sorry
I mean anything is possible but thats further far stretched
If you're going to frame someone you dont exactly wolf the person they're suspicious of
But I think no matter who was wolfed, the person opposite was going to get looked at, I just noticed it also felt weird considering Xiao was strangely high on TZPs sus list.
TZP's reasoning was based on his tone being less jokey compared to previous games, but TZP didn't really respond or give reason to my calling out of him having a more serious tone this game. If TZP is a human and I said he was sus because his tone was more serious than usual this game, why would he use that exact reasoning to then be sus of another player ? Surely if TZP is human, and I sus read him for that tone, he could see my indication was wrong, and then give Xiao his flowers that maybe they could be in the same boat for reasoning why their tone is different.
You didn't say I was sus though? In the post you're referring to, you pointed out that my tone sounded different but that no conclusion could be necessarily drawn from it, since you're pointing out a difference from games where I was both a human and a wolf. When I said that Xiao struck me as less jokey than prior games, I was simply pointing out that that's an observation that could stick, since he hasn't been a wolf yet.
Also, if I were a wolf I would not draw attention to myself by hitting the person opposite the square from me. Wolfing Xiao to disincentive going after me in a lynch would be an extremely hamhanded thing to do—we'd just arrived at a consensus in the previous day phase that we were going wolf-hunting first and foremost, not trying to angle for TTT pressure. Wolfing Xiao would not save me from a lynch under these conditions. And Toby, if you're human, I know you can see that it's just as possible that a wolf took some amount of suspicion that I already had on me and amplified it by wolfing the one person who would make my lynch not contribute to a TTT victory.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 09, 2023, 12:25:16 PMBetween Poet and A#, I'd pick A#. The downside of going with Poet is that it eventually kills the IC, while going with A# doesn't. Both Poet and A# die first in both choices, so I'm interested in why BDS voted for Poet; voting for A# still kills Poet AND keeps the IC alive to the end. I can't fault him too much for self-preservation (since BDS dies in the A# option), but it's a little bit interesting that he quickly voted for an option that's scripted and keeps him alive to the end.
Let me put it this way: irrespective of the TTT board, I'd probably want to lynch both you and A# over this phase and the next. Lynching Poet today ensures that the three of you die (or, two of you, if A# is indeed a wolf like I suspect), rather than forcing us to lynch Toby, a player who I think is generally human. The only way forcing such a situation is disadvantageous is is both TZP and Toby are wolves together—if you believe that to be the case, I'd love to hear your arguments for it (that includes anyone else who might be interested in putting forth such a possibility).
Having THC in the hypothetical final three would be nice, but:
1. We were already sort of expecting him to die with the first wolfing. Him being alive is a nice bonus, but not as necessary as it seems, since our plans should have already factored him not being alive.
2. If both wolves are still alive we might not even get to final 3.
I went over Specs' outcome modeling and I think he's right about all of them, with the exception that I don't understand what he means that lynching Poet is a blunder in the Specs Option timeline.
So Specs took what I suggested last night a step further and played out each iteration of the game--rather than breaking everyone off into pairs for people marked for death tonight, we can actually look at blocks of people that are guaranteed going to die depending on the square we play.
The A# Block: A#, Poet, Toby, BDS.
The Poet Block: A#, Poet, Specs, THC.
The Specs Block: Specs, THC.
The Toby Block: Toby, BDS.
The BDS Block: BDS, Toby, Poet, A#.
The TZP Block: TZP.
The THC Block: THC, Specs, A#, Poet
I think it's important to notice that the THC & Poet blocks, and the A# & BDS blocks, are exact opposites of each other. Lynching Poet kills the same four people as THC, and lynching BDS kills the same four people as A#. The TZP, Toby, and Specs blocks allow us to be a little more precise with the people we want to see go down.
It's difficult to rank these because they have so much overlap, but I think everyone should say which block they would most like to start the domino chain lynch on. Right now Toby is climbing my suspicion list because as I pointed out in the postgame for TWG 117, his social deduction instincts have been very good recently, and they're not right this time, assuming that he is persisting in his suspicion of me. And I still think that one of A# or Poet is probably a wolf, so I'd be most comfortable lynching the A#/BDS block, starting with A#, I guess.
Please let me know if any of that is unclear--felt a little jargon-heavy.
In case I forget to vote before the phase ends, I'm going to just put a safety on myself for now. THC.
Since it takes more than 3 votes to insta and I'm confirmed human, I feel that's the perfect safety for me to make.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 09, 2023, 06:01:08 PMRight now Toby is climbing my suspicion list because as I pointed out in the postgame for TWG 117, his social deduction instincts have been very good recently, and they're not right this time, assuming that he is persisting in his suspicion of me.
???
That feels a bit contrived of a reason.
I think I'd feel a bit more comfortable with your post if you were in support of a block that led to Specs' death; right now, I get the feeling that you and Specs could be possible partners (though I suppose you could also apply the same reasoning to me and Toby).
If Math was a wolf, I think Specs, A#, or Poet are his most likely partners.
If Math was not a wolf, I think the most likely pairings (not in any particular order), are A#/Poet, A#/Specs, and Specs/TZP.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 09, 2023, 06:07:34 PMThat feels a bit contrived of a reason.
I think I'd feel a bit more comfortable with your post if you were in support of a block that led to Specs' death; right now, I get the feeling that you and Specs could be possible partners (though I suppose you could also apply the same reasoning to me and Toby).
I don't think it's contrived--my point, which I suppose I should have stated more clearly, is that Toby's suspicions of me feel contrived. He (rightly) pointed out a difference in tone in my posts from recent games, then said that it wasn't alignment-indicative, but then came back and said that I was being hypocritical for applying his standard to Xiao. As I said back in 176, I felt like he was pointing something out about me that you could just as easily say about Xiao, and tell you more in that case to boot.
Specs is a lower suspicion for me right now just because he went to the work of mapping out each possible game iteration. That's something that's quite helpful to the humans, as I think the wolves benefit at this point from people relying exclusively on social deductions and not considering what the downstream consequences of lynches would be. I'm not clearing him, but I'm also not seeing any other players step forward and attempt solve-y actions in the same way, so it's human points in my book.
Once I think about it, isn't lynching Specs or Toby the best answer? I mean we don't even know if both wolves are alive and going through the set routes would gamble on if the wolves were killed in the process. We might accidentally set up a scenario in which both wolves are alive with a single human. (Assuming that it ends sooner)
We have a bit more flexibility with each lynch if we do choose TZP or Specs.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 09, 2023, 06:01:08 PMI went over Specs' outcome modeling and I think he's right about all of them, with the exception that I don't understand what he means that lynching Poet is a blunder in the Specs Option timeline.
All I meant was that lynching Poet technically there will lose us TTT in 8 turns, but the game will end before that so it doesn't matter.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 09, 2023, 05:38:57 PMLet me put it this way: irrespective of the TTT board, I'd probably want to lynch both you and A# over this phase and the next. Lynching Poet today ensures that the three of you die (or, two of you, if A# is indeed a wolf like I suspect), rather than forcing us to lynch Toby, a player who I think is generally human. The only way forcing such a situation is disadvantageous is is both TZP and Toby are wolves together—if you believe that to be the case, I'd love to hear your arguments for it (that includes anyone else who might be interested in putting forth such a possibility).
Having THC in the hypothetical final three would be nice, but:
1. We were already sort of expecting him to die with the first wolfing. Him being alive is a nice bonus, but not as necessary as it seems, since our plans should have already factored him not being alive.
2. If both wolves are still alive we might not even get to final 3.
If you genuinely find A# and myself suspicious, then yeah, lynching Poet makes the most sense for you in a vacuum.
I don't entirely agree with your thoughts on THC. Picking a plan that doesn't involve the IC dying increases the odds of getting wolves killed around the board. I'm not necessarily suggesting we play purely on that idea, but all things equal, why "waste" a death (that we can plan) on the IC?
Of the 6 possible plans:
3 are entirely scripted: A#, Poet, and BDS. TZP summarized the deaths in a recent post. To be completely honest, I don't love the idea of deciding a chain of 4 deaths with this lynch. The wolves can push for the script that fits them best, potentially even wins it for them before the final 3.
Toby's only ensures Toby and BDS die, and then we get some flexibility for the 3rd lynch, which could be the critical phase if the first two lynches were mislynches. Unlike the 3 scripted options, we can weigh suspicions into the 3rd lynch, rather than being forced to play a specific square.
Mine also allows for flexibility, but it involves getting the IC killed, which seems like a bad play.
Finally, TZPs is a gamble that I personally don't think is worth it. The wolves would essentially control the 3rd lynch, and if Math and TZP weren't wolves, our hands are tied and we lose.
I think having the flexibility to decide the 3rd lynch is important, and for now, that's the deciding factor for me. Toby for now, but I'll be thinking about this a lot.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 09, 2023, 07:03:47 PMIf you genuinely find A# and myself suspicious, then yeah, lynching Poet makes the most sense for you in a vacuum.
I don't entirely agree with your thoughts on THC. Picking a plan that doesn't involve the IC dying increases the odds of getting wolves killed around the board. I'm not necessarily suggesting we play purely on that idea, but all things equal, why "waste" a death (that we can plan) on the IC?
I pose this question to you, and everyone else as well:
Completely ignoring the TTT board, who do you think you'd be most likely to want to lynch this day phase, and next day phase?
I think that should be the biggest guidance over which option we go for. To me, what you're doing feels more like dancing around the option rather than actually trying to lynch wolves, which concerns me.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 09, 2023, 07:18:22 PMI pose this question to you, and everyone else as well:
Completely ignoring the TTT board, who do you think you'd be most likely to want to lynch this day phase, and next day phase?
Toby this phase, then you next phase. Something about Toby's posts isn't sitting right with me. It feels like he's just saying whatever benefits him most at the time, and throwing suspicion onto others from virtually nothing. As for you, I don't like how you're trying to throw Specs under the bus when, at least from my point of view, he's been very helpful to town. In the few games I've played with Specs, it seems that saying things without a clear opinion is the norm for him, so I don't find that inherently suspicious. Couple that with the stuff he's been posting being helpful for town, it feels more like town!Specs to me than wolf!Specs. You've also played with him for about the same amount of games, so you should also have this info available to you, so I find it suspicious that you are acting like this is something out of the ordinary to base a suspicion on.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 09, 2023, 07:18:22 PMI pose this question to you, and everyone else as well:
Completely ignoring the TTT board, who do you think you'd be most likely to want to lynch this day phase, and next day phase?
A#. This may be a rookie move, but her lack of activity is extremely high, even compared to the last round. This seems strange since when I looked through the past games, she was incredibly into the game and spoke a ton. I understand that she isn't as active as before, but her posts aren't collaborating very much. You would expect somebody like that would try to find things people haven't thought about, or added on to the subject.
I'm not as sure of this but I may choose Toby. I find it strange that they are constantly trying to attack Specs even when it is apparent that Specs is actively helping by listing all the possible outcomes.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 09, 2023, 07:18:22 PMCompletely ignoring the TTT board, who do you think you'd be most likely to want to lynch this day phase, and next day phase?
A# for weird day 1 posts and activity, Toby for the seemingly odd criticisms of my posts, and maybe you (BDS) for very quickly trying to get a scripted lynch option going that involves taking out the IC.
I suppose lynching A# does ensure that all three of my suspects die, but again, I'm not sure I can justify locking in the third lynch right now.
When we were talking about instas the other day, TZP mentioned that avoiding instas is generally preferable, as it gives the town more time to collect data for their most powerful tool: lynching. I think the same principle applies here- avoiding a script gives us options for the third lynch. That's a lot of extra time to discuss things and hunt for suspicions. Why lock ourselves now when we don't have to?
Taking a step back from the TTT board, I do agree with Poet that A# has been alarmingly quiet. Definitely want to hear her thoughts on everything before the phase end.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on November 09, 2023, 08:07:34 PMToby this phase, then you next phase. Something about Toby's posts isn't sitting right with me. It feels like he's just saying whatever benefits him most at the time, and throwing suspicion onto others from virtually nothing. As for you, I don't like how you're trying to throw Specs under the bus when, at least from my point of view, he's been very helpful to town. In the few games I've played with Specs, it seems that saying things without a clear opinion is the norm for him, so I don't find that inherently suspicious. Couple that with the stuff he's been posting being helpful for town, it feels more like town!Specs to me than wolf!Specs. You've also played with him for about the same amount of games, so you should also have this info available to you, so I find it suspicious that you are acting like this is something out of the ordinary to base a suspicion on.
The reason I'm suspicious of Specs is because his behavior more closely resembles something like last game, where he was a wolf, versus Just a Numbers Game where he was a human. Posting "helpful" information isn't necessarily indicative of alignment, especially if the person giving that information is trying to spin it to benefits themselves, like Specs is doing. As Toby pointed out (and as I pointed out the prior day), Specs has been a bit noncommittal until pressed (switching from corner strat to center strat last day, then not giving a solid answer about which lynch option he was most inclined toward), which definitely makes it seem like he knows he isn't in the most advantageous position (either because Math is a wolf, or he was banking on humans doing corner strat) and has been trying to keep his options open.
Comparatively, I think Toby is acting completely normal and pretty standard for how he's been the past few games. The things you're pointing out about him are things he's also caught varying degrees of flak for in the past few games, all of which he's been human in. Plus, one could argue that Toby is being just as "helpful" as Specs has been, which also fits in with his performance in the past few games. As I said earlier, pretty standard Toby stuff.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 09, 2023, 08:34:29 PMA# for weird day 1 posts and activity, Toby for the seemingly odd criticisms of my posts, and maybe you (BDS) for very quickly trying to get a scripted lynch option going that involves taking out the IC.
Why is that a bad thing compared to what you're suggesting? "Scripted" isn't bad if we're hitting wolves, and it doesn't feel like that's what you're trying to do at this point. Despite laying out all the options, it feels like you're putting too much priority on the board rather than who dies with each strategy.
Keeping the IC alive isn't necessarily as impactful as what you're trying to suggest. As I said, if there are two wolves alive and we don't hit either of them, we won't even get down to final 3 in the first place. Plus, if we do get down to final 3 with IC alive, there's no guarantee that THC could make the "right" choice of the 50/50 scenario. You're banking too much on the final 3 50/50 rather than trying to avoid getting to a situation where it has to come down to that choice in the first place.
QuoteWhen we were talking about instas the other day, TZP mentioned that avoiding instas is generally preferable, as it gives the town more time to collect data for their most powerful tool: lynching. I think the same principle applies here- avoiding a script gives us options for the third lynch. That's a lot of extra time to discuss things and hunt for suspicions. Why lock ourselves now when we don't have to?
1. I was the one who brought up avoiding instas first.
2. I don't think it's necessarily comparable in this situation. As I said, avoiding a script is meaningless if it steers us away from actually hunting the wolves with our lynches.
BDS I am totally in agreement that we should be hunting wolves via lynch. What I'm pointing out (and what I think Specs is as well) is that because of this game's gimmick, it's important to consider everyone who dies. If we decide that A# is our best bet at hitting a wolf, it's a guarantee that Poet, Toby, and you will go next.
To your point, it's still important to actively try to hit a wolf with the lynch and not just rely on the blocks to take them out for us—if A# is a wolf and her partner is still alive but not in the A#/BDS block, lynching you rather than her this day phase would lose the game for us, even though the exact same people are killed by it, because the order in which people go down matters.
tl;dr: hunt wolves to the best of your ability but don't lose sight of the domino chain that occurs when you do so
All I'm saying is there are 3 options out there that guarantee the deaths through the third lynch, which means if Math was a human and the remaining two lynches are humans, the game ends. It would be very convenient for the wolves to push for an option where the human deaths are guaranteed.
Example, if we do lynch A#, and A#, Poet, and Toby are humans, that's game.
BDS, I do agree that A# has looked suspicious, and yes I don't want to lose sight of lynching people who are suspicious. I'm just trying to keep sight of the implications and chain reaction if we do lynch A# (or anyone for that matter).
Finally, I'm frankly a little concerned by the negative reactions to my dissection and analysis of the game. I didn't do it "trying to score human points", but rather to help the town make an informed decision. Yet, I've received a lot of negative reaction from BDS and Toby specifically. Idk, maybe chalk it up to still being relatively new to TWG, but I'm surprised that something that helpful would automatically been seen as suspicious just because I didn't directly post opinions associated with it.
Hey sorry I've got a lot on my plate at moment and yesterday was a busy work day for me I literally flew to London worked a 9-5 and flew back in the same day which was a long ass day
To respond to some points
TZP so I didn't exactly call you suspicious exactly for your change of tone, but I did say it was something I picked up on and could suggest you trying to be more careful:
Quote from: Toby on November 08, 2023, 01:03:56 PMOn a quick re read only thing I noticed is that all of TZPs posts seem to be serious/thought out so far. Could suggest him trying to be careful in everything he says
But having a flick through his last wolf game in the numbers TWG, he didn't have a similar personality at all. So I can't say his personality is similar to his last wolf game but maybe playing careful could be alignment indicative if he's feeling more pressure this game.
Not sure just an observation
As part of my analysis of your change of tone I did mention that when I checked your wolf game I couldn't say you acted the same. However. I did still brought up the point, and I did indicate it could just be feeling more pressure as a wolf in this game compared to last. You haven't really had an answer for your change of tone but you have seemed to agree with my observation. I do think that's a bit odd to agree with my observation but then not provide reasoning as to why a change of tone, or to let me believe it's anything other than feeling more pressure as a wolf this game.
So while I didn't exactly say it was huge alarm bells, I did make the observation, and relate it to a wolf trait. Which is why, while I've correctly observed your tone changing, I'm not sure why you read Xiao as sus for his change of tone, and didn't provide any kind of benefit of the doubt for him possibly having a change of tone, but also being human - if it's the case with yourself that you have a change of tone but are human ?
.
For specs, while your observations have been really helpful, the trait I'm seeing as suspicious is that while you have put in effort and dug deep to get your findings, you sat on the fence with them. And sitting on the fence is just a wolf trait. Which is why I have slight sus towards you for that
Recently I have slight sus towards BDS for indicating we should consider options that may include losing our confirmed human. I think we should protect our confirmed human if we can, and I definitely think we can. Coupled this with the fact I think I'm the only person he is reading as human this game, and I happen to be opposite him on the grid - which would mean if I die, he dies... I'm not liking how that's looking
Poet I'm reading very town. I think I was absolutely correct in saying I think they're just being a scatty human, who has learned more about the game and is eager to put in more effort. They've suggested lynching A# that would secure their own death which does give them huge human points for me
A# was literally disappeared and not been online in over a day. They did mention they've got personal stuff going on in the topic at some point, alluding to the fact we don't wanna know what she's going through, so I hope she's doing okay. I think she's also just been herself really as sus as she can usually be. And the fact she's actually completely disappeared does also somewhat incline me to read her as human more, as if she was a wolf I think she'd at least pop on to check her PMs or see how she's doing. She seems to have checked out a bit.
I haven't had the chance to fully analyse which lynch option is most beneficial but I believe TZPs data is correct so later I'll try look at where I personally would like to go and my predictions for how that would let day 3 play out. Prior to today I did feel most comfortable with the poet/A# angle as on paper I thought that gave town most benefit going into day 3. The specs angle would remove THC, and the TZP angle puts humans into a forced lynch day 3 which doesn't work.
I honestly could be leaning towards just lynching BDS/myself as I think it's the safest option for town overall. I'll try checkout A#'s posts later and see if I can see genuine sus there but I'm reading poet human so strongly at moment so would be a shame for town to lose her
I don't see anything from A# that draws my suspicion compared to her previous games
I'd probably be fine with lynching me which would secure BDS' death, and then setup either TZP and Specs to be lynched day 3 and 4
Quote from: Toby on November 06, 2023, 06:29:47 AMPlaying centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days.
Toby said this back on the D0, in regards to playing the center or a corner.
I think the same principle holds true, although its up for us to decide if we have enough information to go exclusively wolf hunting and take a scripted option, opposed to hitting Toby or me and having flexibility on the 3rd lynch.
It made sense to take the flexible option on the first lynch, and I still think it makes sense to give ourselves flexibility for the 3rd lynch. If we do, 2 players will have been removed from the pool, and we get 72 more hours to discuss, gather information, and figure out who is suspect. If we play Poet, A#, or BDS, we basically say "We think these people are wolves, hopefully we are right" and the ball gets set in motion.
Maybe more of a rules question, but can "online status" be used as valid arguments in the game? It was mentioned that A# hadn't logged in in awhile, which could be used to say she's not necessarily avoid the game, rather she's super busy.
That feels a little bit against the spirit of the game, however. Can a seasoned player chime in on that?
I didn't see before that lynching either poet or A# actually forced us as well for day 3.
You should honestly just lynch me
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 10, 2023, 12:19:44 PMMaybe more of a rules question, but can "online status" be used as valid arguments in the game? It was mentioned that A# hadn't logged in in awhile, which could be used to say she's not necessarily avoid the game, rather she's super busy.
That feels a little bit against the spirit of the game, however. Can a seasoned player chime in on that?
I'm sure checking online status is allowed but stalking the who's online section of the forum where you can read if people are sending PM's etc. is not allowed - and this option is also recommended for players to turn off via your settings (so people can't see what you're doing)
I think its just more frowned upon than not allowed since it isn't really enforceable
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 12:28:01 PMI'm sure checking online status is allowed but stalking the who's online section of the forum where you can read if people are sending PM's etc. is not allowed - and this option is also recommended for players to turn off via your settings (so people can't see what you're doing)
Oh wait what
Alright, I'm officially going to bed and won't be around until after phase change. I'm putting my vote in for Toby. He's either a human willing to sacrifice himself for the best chance at town winning or a wold trying to reverse psychology people. Either way, I feel that's the lynch to go for with the information currently available. See y'all in the night.
Toby I understand your point about your accusation of me as having a different tone. I didn't provide a reason because I haven't felt like my heart is in this game, and I'm not sure why and have been trying to muster an effort to rally a bit harder. Maybe just a bit of burnout? I do understand why you read that as sounding like a wolf under pressure though, your explanation of your suspicion makes a bit more sense to me now.
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 09:04:37 AMA# was literally disappeared and not been online in over a day. They did mention they've got personal stuff going on in the topic at some point, alluding to the fact we don't wanna know what she's going through, so I hope she's doing okay.
Also, I glanced through the thread and didn't see anything that A# said about this? What are you referring to?
Something else I just realized is that there is no lynching block that Specs is in that THC is not also in. If Specs is a wolf, Xiao could have been wolfed in part for this reason—to set the board up so that he can't be lynched without also depriving the humans of their confirmed human. I think that's an ideal way for the wolves to leverage the confirmed human rather than just taking him out first chance they get.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 10, 2023, 01:58:35 PMAlso, I glanced through the thread and didn't see anything that A# said about this? What are you referring to?
This is what I was referring to
Quote from: A# Minor on November 07, 2023, 09:06:16 AMyou dont wanna know what happened yesterday <:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 10, 2023, 02:01:43 PMSomething else I just realized is that there is no lynching block that Specs is in that THC is not also in. If Specs is a wolf, Xiao could have been wolfed in part for this reason—to set the board up so that he can't be lynched without also depriving the humans of their confirmed human. I think that's an ideal way for the wolves to leverage the confirmed human rather than just taking him out first chance they get.
I do think it would have been smart for the wolves to wolf a player that gave them an advantage
The Xiao wolfing gives both TZP and Specs an advantage so there's likely a wolf within them
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 10, 2023, 07:01:32 AMBDS I am totally in agreement that we should be hunting wolves via lynch. What I'm pointing out (and what I think Specs is as well) is that because of this game's gimmick, it's important to consider everyone who dies. If we decide that A# is our best bet at hitting a wolf, it's a guarantee that Poet, Toby, and you will go next.
To your point, it's still important to actively try to hit a wolf with the lynch and not just rely on the blocks to take them out for us—if A# is a wolf and her partner is still alive but not in the A#/BDS block, lynching you rather than her this day phase would lose the game for us, even though the exact same people are killed by it, because the order in which people go down matters.
tl;dr: hunt wolves to the best of your ability but don't lose sight of the domino chain that occurs when you do so
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 10, 2023, 07:58:38 AMAll I'm saying is there are 3 options out there that guarantee the deaths through the third lynch, which means if Math was a human and the remaining two lynches are humans, the game ends. It would be very convenient for the wolves to push for an option where the human deaths are guaranteed.
Example, if we do lynch A#, and A#, Poet, and Toby are humans, that's game.
BDS, I do agree that A# has looked suspicious, and yes I don't want to lose sight of lynching people who are suspicious. I'm just trying to keep sight of the implications and chain reaction if we do lynch A# (or anyone for that matter).
Finally, I'm frankly a little concerned by the negative reactions to my dissection and analysis of the game. I didn't do it "trying to score human points", but rather to help the town make an informed decision. Yet, I've received a lot of negative reaction from BDS and Toby specifically. Idk, maybe chalk it up to still being relatively new to TWG, but I'm surprised that something that helpful would automatically been seen as suspicious just because I didn't directly post opinions associated with it.
The combination of these posts back-to-back feels kinda suspicious ???
Re: TZP, that's exactly what I have been taking into account, and what I feel Specs has not.
Re: Specs, especially the last paragraph, that feels like a bit of an overreaction to what people have pointed out. It's not
because of your analysis that I'm suspicious of you, but rather, factoring in the context surrounding it.
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 09:04:37 AMRecently I have slight sus towards BDS for indicating we should consider options that may include losing our confirmed human. I think we should protect our confirmed human if we can, and I definitely think we can. Coupled this with the fact I think I'm the only person he is reading as human this game, and I happen to be opposite him on the grid - which would mean if I die, he dies... I'm not liking how that's looking
Quite frankly, I'm not sure I want to place my faith in a hypothetical situation where THC is in the final 3, especially so after his most recent analysis post (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12818.msg438889#msg438889). His reasoning is basically the exact opposite of mine, and given my suspicion of Specs, I'm strongly get the feeling THC wouldn't vote for Specs in a final 3.
Also, I was human leaning Xiao, but Xiao died. Not sure what you want me to do about that when everyone else is acting various degrees of sketchy. If I was trying to keep myself alive via TTT board, why would I not have wolfed you (or THC, for that matter) and avoided the whole dilemma entirely?
Poet, I'm on the fence about. I'm glad her analysis has started picking up, but at the same time it feels a bit sudden. Of all the players I suspect, she feels the most human, but given that she's across from A# (if A# is the lone wolf she won't be wolfed and will guarantee a human victory, and if A# is one of two wolves it puts the wolves in a tricky spot) and lynching Poet also leads to Specs being lynched, that's the route I feel most comfortable going down.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 10, 2023, 02:01:43 PMSomething else I just realized is that there is no lynching block that Specs is in that THC is not also in. If Specs is a wolf, Xiao could have been wolfed in part for this reason—to set the board up so that he can't be lynched without also depriving the humans of their confirmed human. I think that's an ideal way for the wolves to leverage the confirmed human rather than just taking him out first chance they get.
That could be a good reason specifically why THC wasn't wolfed, I agree. If THC was already dead, Specs' lynch would be a potentially more appealing option to the humans.
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 03:16:35 PMI do think it would have been smart for the wolves to wolf a player that gave them an advantage
The Xiao wolfing gives both TZP and Specs an advantage so there's likely a wolf within them
That's partly the reason why I suspect a possible Specs/TZP pairing, and also because their posts have seemed weirdly in sync this phase in particular.
Keeping my vote for the time being. Phase ends in about an hour and a half.
Can we get a vote count Oricorio?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 10, 2023, 02:01:43 PMSomething else I just realized is that there is no lynching block that Specs is in that THC is not also in. If Specs is a wolf, Xiao could have been wolfed in part for this reason—to set the board up so that he can't be lynched without also depriving the humans of their confirmed human. I think that's an ideal way for the wolves to leverage the confirmed human rather than just taking him out first chance they get.
That's a good point. I can see it in a few ways. First, yeah, it could have been just a simple way to defend me if I'm a wolf. Not the case though. Second, it could have been a way to frame me; the Xiao move N1 does put me in the spot of "defending the IC". Lastly (and this can coexist with the second point), a successful push to lynch me also takes out the IC, since THC and I are opposite on the board. BDS has been the one most suspicious of me; it could be a play to get the IC out. The A# option takes out me and the IC.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 10, 2023, 04:34:57 PMThat could be a good reason specifically why THC wasn't wolfed, I agree. If THC was already dead, Specs' lynch would be a potentially more appealing option to the humans.
That's partly the reason why I suspect a possible Specs/TZP pairing, and also because their posts have seemed weirdly in sync this phase in particular.
Or, playing an edge square on N1 was a losing play. If Math was a wolf, THC wasn't an option. If THC was killed N1 and one wolf died up though the 3rd lynching, the wolves lose via TTT
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 10, 2023, 04:45:59 PMCan we get a vote count Oricorio?
The Musical Poet: 1 (BlackDragonSlayer)
A# Minor: 1 (TheZeldaPianist275)
Toby: 2 (SpecsFlyer17, ThatHiddenCharacter)
If I missed anything let me know
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 10, 2023, 04:47:14 PMThat's a good point. I can see it in a few ways. First, yeah, it could have been just a simple way to defend me if I'm a wolf. Not the case though. Second, it could have been a way to frame me; the Xiao move N1 does put me in the spot of "defending the IC". Lastly (and this can coexist with the second point), a successful push to lynch me also takes out the IC, since THC and I are opposite on the board. BDS has been the one most suspicious of me; it could be a play to get the IC out. The A# option takes out me and the IC.
As I said before, you're putting too much stock in the IC—and in general, it seems as if you're getting too attached to points that you shouldn't be if you were human. If the IC needs to die for us to actually lynch wolves, that's the preferable option for me.
If we haven't lynched at least one wolf, then next day phase is the last lynch. Lynching Poet today ensures A# is wolfed (unless she's the lone wolf or the wolf pair hesitate wolfing one of their own, which guarantees human TTT victory), which gets rid of one of my biggest suspicions, then we lynch Specs the next day which gets rid of another one of my biggest suspicions.
From my perspective, that
guarantees we make it to a final 3 unless the wolf pair is TZP/Toby, which I think is the least likely possibility of all the wolf pairings for reasons I've described before: Toby's play seems perfectly in line with his human play from the past few games, and TZP's and Toby's interests don't exactly seems to be aligning, at least up until now.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on November 10, 2023, 04:53:29 PMOr, playing an edge square on N1 was a losing play. If Math was a wolf, THC wasn't an option. If THC was killed N1 and one wolf died up though the 3rd lynching, the wolves lose via TTT
As I mentioned before:
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 09, 2023, 06:11:52 PMIf Math was a wolf, I think Specs, A#, or Poet are his most likely partners.
If Math was not a wolf, I think the most likely pairings (not in any particular order), are A#/Poet, A#/Specs, and Specs/TZP.
You would be a good partner for Math because you advocated the corner strat over his square, but switched positions toward the end when it was clear people were leaning away from it.
I could entirely see you wolfing Xiao after your push for the corner strat failed because you were put in a disadvantageous position (regardless of whether or not Math was a wolf) and forced to potentially make a choice that could reveal a lot of information you wouldn't want the humans to have. I could also see you deliberately avoiding wolfing THC for one or both of the same reasons, as well as to potentially protect yourself.
A# would make a good partner for Math because it would explain her sudden disappearance. If your wolf partner was lynched D1 and you were subsequently put in a position where you were a likely lynch candidate over the next day phases, I can understand sort of "giving up."
If A# is part of a wolf pair, I could see her going along with a Xiao wolfing, likely for the same reasons Specs would wolf Xiao. I think an A#/Poet pair would conceivably wolf Xiao without realizing there was a good chance it could put a spotlight on the two of them. Them being across the diagonal from each other isn't a great position to be in, so it's possible their hand was forced over taking what they saw as the least worst option.
Poet is sort of an open-ended in regards to partners, but I think Math and A# are the most likely picks.
I don't think TZP would be a partner to Math, but he makes sense as a possible partner to Specs because, as I mentioned prior, it feels like your posts have really been playing off of each other this phase while not expressing
exactly the same thing. As was mentioned early in the phase, wolfing Xiao could be a play to protect TZP (Specs would be aware of the possible outcomes already and hope the humans wouldn't want to risk an option that gave the wolves more control).
If there is one wolf left alive, lynching Toby is an acceptable option, but isn't the best, as it makes the next day phase so much trickier to figure out rather than just dealing with the most suspicious players earlier. High chance of mislynching D3.
If there are two wolves left, lynching Toby is one of the worst option (especially after Toby said he'd be ok with his own lynch and certainly didn't do anything to fight it) because it leaves all of TZP, A#, Specs, and Poet alive into D3. Extremely high chance of mislynching.
I don't really want to bank on the chance that Math was a wolf.
I'm also hesitant to lynch A# today because that forces us to lynch Toby the next day—if A# isn't a wolf, that means wolves are most likely Specs/TZP. Both the Toby lynch and A# lynch heavily benefit that wolf pairing, especially since they know THC is already likely to vote in their favor the next day phase after a Toby lynch.
So would Specs be the best option?
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 10, 2023, 05:30:55 PMSo would Specs be the best option?
Well, it would be
an option. Not necessarily the worst option, but preferably to lynching Toby imo. If Specs isn't a wolf and A# is, then that option could also cause issues.
We've got around 15 minutes left. Poet, if you're planning to vote Specs, I would be interested in getting on board—as I imagine you are unlikely to want to lynch yourself.
I mean I haven't liked any of THC's takes either this game and if leaving him alive only secures TZP/Spec's fate in staying alive then that's a bad thing in my opinion
I like BDS' insight into Specs/THC's posts playing off of eachother and honestly it feels like they've been doing that all game, but that could just because they know eachother irl
THC was left alive for a reason
Killing him would mean Specs is lynchable i guess
Toby do you mean TZP or THC
THC - he wasn't wolfed for a reason
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 05:46:35 PMI mean I haven't liked any of THC's takes either this game and if leaving him alive only secures TZP/Spec's fate in staying alive then that's a bad thing in my opinion
I like BDS' insight into Specs/THC's posts playing off of eachother and honestly it feels like they've been doing that all game, but that could just because they know eachother irl
I'm guessing he means TZP in the second paragraph here.
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 05:46:35 PMI mean I haven't liked any of THC's takes either this game and if leaving him alive only secures TZP/Spec's fate in staying alive then that's a bad thing in my opinion
I like BDS' insight into Specs/THC's posts playing off of eachother and honestly it feels like they've been doing that all game, but that could just because they know eachother irl
Oh I mean TZP in the second para here oops
THC was may have been left live because if an edge was played, one correct wolf lynch seals victory for the town.
Reminder that only myself or Specs should be viable lynch options I guess
As otherwise wolves can force our lynch day 3
I don't want to commit to the D3 lynch yet, and the only lynch that doesn't kill four people / confirmed humans from my perspective is Toby, so I am changing my vote to him
Poet do you plan on voting?
BDS I'm not sure why you think that Specs and I are likely partners—that would be some pretty hardcore buddying that you're pointing to if we were. I think you're really reaching here
I'll actually be selfish and vote for Specs. Although it may secure THC's fate, I'm reading A# and Poet as very human and wouldn't mind them in end game instead
THC seems to town read Specs and I don't so I'd rather see myself in end game to lynch wolf specs
Specs
I'll get another phantom if I don't, so I'll go with Specs
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 10, 2023, 05:55:01 PMBDS I'm not sure why you think that Specs and I are likely partners—that would be some pretty hardcore buddying that you're pointing to if we were. I think you're really reaching here
The buddying hasn't really been strong until this phase in particular, and only when you needed to advocate for each other's viewpoints in pushing a Toby lynch/pushing a lynch away from Specs.
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 05:52:21 PMReminder that only myself or Specs should be viable lynch options I guess
As otherwise wolves can force our lynch day 3
SpecsFlyer17
My sus on BDS was quite weak anyway and I actually do relate the the point that if THC although confirmed human is not going to lynch correctly then there may not be benefit in protecting him
Huh. Really going to get the IC killed N2?
The IC thinks I'm a wolf and you're human. If IC has power vote then they'll be voting wrong anyway which is detrimental.
Will we play tic tac toe instead of a KitB
I respect being flexible with the D3 lynch, but why kill the IC?
Seriously? You're flinching last-minute and letting THC die because of it?
I suppose Poet/Toby could be a possible pairing, but of all the ones I suspect I'd say it's still the least likely.
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 05:59:13 PMThe IC thinks I'm a wolf and you're human. If IC has power vote then they'll be voting wrong anyway which is detrimental.
Will we play tic tac toe instead of a KitB
I see.
Toby: 3 (SpecsFlyer17, ThatHiddenCharacter, TheZeldaPianist275)
SpecsFlyer17: 3 (Toby, The Musical Poet, BlackDragonSlayer)
By a KITB, SpecsFlyer17 has been lynched!
Current board:
| TheZeldaPianist275 | BlackDragonSlayer | A# Minor |
| ThatHiddenCharacter (IC) | X | X |
| The Musical Poet | Toby | O |
It is now N2, which will last for 24 hours!
great look guys
Poet why did you vote Specs
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 10, 2023, 05:30:55 PMSo would Specs be the best option?
Probably stemming from this post.
From my perspective, the next lynch is between Poet, TZP, and A#. If Specs wasn't a wolf and there are two wolves left, I think it's most likely the two are among these three.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 10, 2023, 06:05:49 PMProbably stemming from this post.
From my perspective, the next lynch is between Poet, TZP, and A#. If Specs wasn't a wolf and there are two wolves left, I think it's most likely the two are among these three.
Probably my worst decision ever taken in TWG -v-
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 10, 2023, 06:26:01 PMProbably my worst decision ever taken in TWG -v-
What do you mean?
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 05:59:13 PMThe IC thinks I'm a wolf and you're human.
I initially thought you were suspicious, but was starting to have doubts (hence the wording of my last post). Also, I never said I thought Specs was human.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on November 10, 2023, 07:12:18 PMI initially thought you were suspicious, but was starting to have doubts (hence the wording of my last post). Also, I never said I thought Specs was human.
I initially had town read his posts, but since then it started feeling more and more defensive and trying to sway the game in one specific direction rather than to multiple possible plans that could work for town. Reading what I missed, I likely would have changed my vote to Specs if I had been around.
welp, looks like I have a lot of catching up to do :o
Quote from: A# Minor on November 10, 2023, 09:21:20 PMwelp, looks like I have a lot of catching up to do :o
Yes, yes you do.
Slightly alarmed with Poets vote and wondering if it was a wolf rush decision to protect BDS, which gives the possible BDS/Poet pairing
I don't think I see TZP paired with BDS or Poet so I'm somewhat feeling Poet or Bds day 3 before considering TZP day 4
It's hard cause I have town read Poet prior to the lynch, but THC says he would also have went Specs so maybe it was just the right call to make
I'm slightly bias for believing lynching Specs was the right call as I know I'm human and have survival instinct to want to survive
At least we have some sort of flexibility by lynching Specs, but I feel I could have chosen better if I nitpicked a little more.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 11, 2023, 11:43:54 AMAt least we have some sort of flexibility by lynching Specs, but I feel I could have chosen better if I nitpicked a little more.
The best options was either me or Specs but lynching Specs secures the wolfing of THC tonight. So I'm curious as to why you didn't choose me ?
Quote from: Toby on November 11, 2023, 11:55:47 AMsecures the wolfing of THC tonight
In that case, I bid you all a fond adieu. Good luck!
Quote from: Toby on November 11, 2023, 07:10:24 AMSlightly alarmed with Poets vote and wondering if it was a wolf rush decision to protect BDS, which gives the possible BDS/Poet pairing
I don't think I see TZP paired with BDS or Poet so I'm somewhat feeling Poet or Bds day 3 before considering TZP day 4
Even after I was pushing for a Poet lynch for most of the day, and still stated that as my preferred option by the end of the phase?
I'm leaning toward a TZP or Poet lynch the next day. I think Poet has the most partner flexibility (A# and Toby are both possible partners, and I could potentially see Poet/TZP as well) and would also take A# out of the equation (I still think A# is a likely partner for Math if he was a wolf). TZP because of that nagging feeling of TZP/Toby wolf partners and because he's a likely partner of wolf Specs.
Also, I've started feeling sick, so probably will be a bit less active (sleeping more) and my head might be a bit more cloudy.
ThatHiddenCharacter has been killed in the night!
Current board:
| TheZeldaPianist275 | BlackDragonSlayer | A# Minor |
| O | X | X |
| The Musical Poet | Toby | O |
It is now D3, which will last for 48 hours!
All right, to business.
That rush to vote out Specs reminds me a lot of the Davy lynch in the last three minutes of D0 in Assassin's Gambit. I think there's at least one wolf in the Toby/BDS/Poet block because there's no cause for that to have happened the way that it did. Toby, you in particular--why did you say it was a good idea for humans to lynch you and then flinch and lead a rush onto someone else?
To me, the only suspicious part about it was that it didn't happen sooner. In a Toby/Poet wolf pairing though, I could see them waiting until later because they were both probably unsure over whether I'd be willing to change my vote (which I only expressed after Poet's post about Specs).
That is my point BDS, and I find you very suspicious for still reading Toby as human after it
I don't think it's necessarily suspicious of Toby. The big reason why he was ok with letting himself by lynched was because he was suspicious of
me earlier in the phase.
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 05:46:35 PMI like BDS' insight into Specs/THC's posts playing off of eachother and honestly it feels like they've been doing that all game, but that could just because they know eachother irl
Quote from: Toby on November 10, 2023, 05:56:56 PMMy sus on BDS was quite weak anyway and I actually do relate the the point that if THC although confirmed human is not going to lynch correctly then there may not be benefit in protecting him
First of all, "lynching correctly" is not the primary benefit to having had THC alive--it's that we have someone who is a confirmed human that we don't have to worry about. So I don't buy Toby's explanation there.
Second of all, I understand why he was okay with getting lynched, and you still haven't answered--why aren't you suspicious of Toby for hanging around until the very last minute to change his vote?
Change of topic--what are your thoughts on the A#-Poet duo?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 11, 2023, 06:52:26 PMFirst of all, "lynching correctly" is not the primary benefit to having had THC alive--it's that we have someone who is a confirmed human that we don't have to worry about. So I don't buy Toby's explanation there.
Considering that THC can potentially be a loose cannon, I don't think that benefit outweighs the potential cost.
QuoteSecond of all, I understand why he was okay with getting lynched, and you still haven't answered--why aren't you suspicious of Toby for hanging around until the very last minute to change his vote?
Toby hadn't placed a vote before his Specs vote. I don't think it's unreasonable for Toby to make sure he was online before the end of the phase in order to place a vote (especially since end of phase is like 2am for him IIRC).
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 11, 2023, 06:52:51 PMChange of topic--what are your thoughts on the A#-Poet duo?
As I've said earlier, I think it's entirely a possibility, and could offer a possible explanation of why Xiao was wolfed. Having the two wolves be across from each other isn't the best position to be in for the wolf team.
Sorry, I didn't mean them as a potential wolf pairing—I said "duo" because I think people have been considering them as a pair, both because they are across from each other and because they've both been relatively aloof from the arguments of the game so far. What are your thoughts on each one individually?
random mismatched thoughts:
well the ttt board sucks right now
I don't know what to think about specs being lynched (I mean, it was a kitb, but still). there's a slight possibility that wolf specs could've let himself be lynched for the sole purpose of getting rid of the IC, but I'm not sure if there'd be any benefit for the wolves if the IC is gone. I guess he could be human?
but then, it's not like the IC is all-knowing just because he's a confirmed human
Toby I still think that vote change was a bit too random, but I guess Poet's was too, so I'm thinking one of you two is a wolf
if bds (who I have a somewhat strong human read on atm) is a wolf, I'm going to hide in my closet for a week
TZP's general tone has had a serious change in this game and idk what's up with that
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 11, 2023, 07:18:56 PMSorry, I didn't mean them as a potential wolf pairing—I said "duo" because I think people have been considering them as a pair, both because they are across from each other and because they've both been relatively aloof from the arguments of the game so far. What are your thoughts on each one individually?
Sort of hard to get a grip on A# because she's been mostly absent. My leading theory is that it's possible wolf A# sort of "gave up" when she realized Math was going to be lynched D1. Would explain her earlier absence and re-emergence post-Specs lynch (after realizing she may have a chance to win despite the bleak D1).
Poet, on the other hand, was present albeit not especially contributing much earlier on in the game, but seemed to pick up her contributions later on, which could indicate an active push as a wolf to try and make sure the game goes their way. I've gone back and forth on Poet; last day phase, I mostly wanted to lynch her because the domino effect would have gotten rid of all my suspicions, but now I also feel like she's a valid lynch by herself, especially on account of her relatively versatile partner pairings.
Quote from: A# Minor on November 11, 2023, 11:10:48 PMrandom mismatched thoughts:
well the ttt board sucks right now
I don't know what to think about specs being lynched (I mean, it was a kitb, but still). there's a slight possibility that wolf specs could've let himself be lynched for the sole purpose of getting rid of the IC, but I'm not sure if there'd be any benefit for the wolves if the IC is gone. I guess he could be human?
but then, it's not like the IC is all-knowing just because he's a confirmed human
Toby I still think that vote change was a bit too random, but I guess Poet's was too, so I'm thinking one of you two is a wolf
if bds (who I have a somewhat strong human read on atm) is a wolf, I'm going to hide in my closet for a week
TZP's general tone has had a serious change in this game and idk what's up with that
GTH the wolf pair is either TZP/Specs, A#/Math, or Toby/Poet. To hedge against all these possible options, my gut says to go for a Poet lynch today, ensuring A# is wolfed (like I wanted to do yesterday).
I agree that TZP's tone this phase has been weird. Feels almost like he knows he's backed into a corner post-Specs lynch and is anticipating a final three with him vs. Toby in it and trying to avoid that or get the jump on Toby.
Out of curiosity, why do you think the TTT board "sucks"? Winning via TTT was always going to be unlikely for humans, and the board now, as it stands, isn't particularly bad for us.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on November 11, 2023, 11:44:51 PMGTH the wolf pair is either TZP/Specs, A#/Math, or Toby/Poet. To hedge against all these possible options, my gut says to go for a Poet lynch today, ensuring A# is wolfed (like I wanted to do yesterday).
lol I love how we're starting to use "GTH" now
TZP/specs seems a bit too obvious to be true imo
ooof, even thinking about myself possibly being a lone wolf gives me a headache D:
I was considering toby/poet as a pair as well. so far I'm leaning on either that or TZP/poet. that is, assuming a wolf hasn't already died
QuoteI agree that TZP's tone this phase has been weird. Feels almost like he knows he's backed into a corner post-Specs lynch and is anticipating a final three with him vs. Toby in it and trying to avoid that or get the jump on Toby.
hm, I'll have to continue observing, but that's a possibility
QuoteOut of curiosity, why do you think the TTT board "sucks"? Winning via TTT was always going to be unlikely for humans, and the board now, as it stands, isn't particularly bad for us.
I mean, it isn't
terrible, but it isn't really great either. no matter who we lynch (go ahead and grab the salt), the wolves will probably just counter us until parity
well, unless we get a good spot and they can't counter us ... ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
totally unrelated, I think "Termina Tango" is my favorite title so far
Yeah phase end was only 2am for me and it was Friday so that was fine I was awake anyway
Although THC being alive meant he was a player not to have to worry about, his vote was still the decider, and I didn't think he would put his vote in the right place. And if the flip side to THC being alive is me being alive instead where I trust myself better to vote in the right place, then that works better.
I'm a little concerned with A# missing almost an entire day phase and providing no excuse for absence.
I'd still like to hear Poet's specific reasoning for not lynching me over Specs
I was inclined to agree with THC that the last rush could likely of had a wolf in it, but THC also said he would have voted Specs so I'm almost feeling we just have to chalk it up to being the better/agreed upon lynch
On plus side we don't need to worry about wolves winning TTT anymore
And if we have lynched one wolf by end of today, then we could force the wolves night kill tonight if we don't lynch TZP. - because the wolves will need to block our TTT move. But this only works if there is not 2 wolves alive by tonight.
If there's 2 wolves alive by tonight we lose
Quote from: Toby on November 12, 2023, 02:14:02 AMI'm a little concerned with A# missing almost an entire day phase and providing no excuse for absence.
right, I guess I didn't think I had to last night. but anyways just a bunch of crazy irl stuff that was keeping me too busy to get in here <:
Quote from: Toby on November 12, 2023, 08:21:35 AMOn plus side we don't need to worry about wolves winning TTT anymore
I thought of that, but then I couldn't even think of a way for the wolves to win the ttt unless we made some really silly plays
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 07, 2023, 10:23:24 PMI take back what I said a minute ago.
also, I'm going to make a suspicions list tomorrow if I'm not dead.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 09, 2023, 01:33:36 PMLater today once I have the time, I will make a suspicion list. I ask for you guys to do the same.
Poet, twice you said you were going to make a suspicion list, and you didn't
And then it seemed like you were leaning towards voting me but instead you voted Specs
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 09, 2023, 08:24:17 PMA#. This may be a rookie move, but her lack of activity is extremely high, even compared to the last round. This seems strange since when I looked through the past games, she was incredibly into the game and spoke a ton. I understand that she isn't as active as before, but her posts aren't collaborating very much. You would expect somebody like that would try to find things people haven't thought about, or added on to the subject.
I'm not as sure of this but I may choose Toby. I find it strange that they are constantly trying to attack Specs even when it is apparent that Specs is actively helping by listing all the possible outcomes.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 10, 2023, 05:30:55 PMSo would Specs be the best option?
It's a bit odd.
I would pair Poet with BDS and I'm not sure if BDS nudged her to try distance herself from him by casting suspicious lean towards me (which lynching me would secure BDS' death)
And then the question for if Specs is the best option, I suppose if she was a wolf she had to say somewhere in the topic a lean for Specs before voting so it didn't look odd? But it could also just be genuine
I'm questioning everything today
Quote from: Toby on November 11, 2023, 11:55:47 AMThe best options was either me or Specs but lynching Specs secures the wolfing of THC tonight. So I'm curious as to why you didn't choose me ?
Well, I didn't really want you to die, but yes it was a hasty decision.
But why
why tho poet
if math was a wolf, I'm stumped
toby (potentially) bussing poet is confusing me a bit due to the nature of the game but I'm still not convinced that they're not wolves
no matter who we lynch, the following plays will be pretty obvious, so that doesn't really matter
I'll see how the rest of the phase goes before trying to narrow down my suspicions
ack, ninja'd
My recent decisions have been heavily influenced by BDS, TZP, and you Toby. Which has added to my already horrible online status and limited time to further ruin my hasty thinking. Therefore, I have decided to clean up and finish my IRL work before coming back to this.
I feel like a wolf wouldn't admit to being heavily influenced by their wolf partner or even any other player
I think I'm satisfied with poets response
yeah, but she could have been following them because she didn't know who to vote for otherwise
I mean yeah but is that a wolf trait or someone that just doesn't know what to do
And being open about not really knowing what to do and following others leads isn't really something a wolf that's trying to be careful and not draw suspicion does
Quote from: Toby on November 12, 2023, 09:24:05 AMI would pair Poet with BDS and I'm not sure if BDS nudged her to try distance herself from him by casting suspicious lean towards me (which lynching me would secure BDS' death)
I'd like to point out that I was gunning for a Poet lynch yesterday and have already stated my most likely picks for a lynch today are either Poet or TZP.
It's good to question things though, to avoid tunneling.
Quote from: A# Minor on November 12, 2023, 12:03:08 PMtoby (potentially) bussing poet is confusing me a bit due to the nature of the game but I'm still not convinced that they're not wolves
In this case, Toby would be bussing Poet because he knows I'm already inclined to go for Poet and is hoping that I would indeed follow through and vote TZP in the final 3. Whereas today he might not be 100% sure if he can get a lynch on anybody else.
I do think Poet/Toby is a lot less likely though.
Quote from: Toby on November 12, 2023, 09:24:05 AMI'm questioning everything today
This is where I'm at right now--whichever of you is on the wolf team has played very well, I don't feel confident in anyone.
Right now I am leaning toward a BDS vote because I haven't felt like his reasoning has followed an especially genuine pattern--his posts are solvey but don't seem to flow naturally from one conjecture to another
what is "solve-y"
Solve-y in the sense of trying to figure out what role belongs to who
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 12, 2023, 04:58:29 PMThis is where I'm at right now--whichever of you is on the wolf team has played very well, I don't feel confident in anyone.
Right now I am leaning toward a BDS vote because I haven't felt like his reasoning has followed an especially genuine pattern--his posts are solvey but don't seem to flow naturally from one conjecture to another
What do you mean by that? What isn't natural about it?
I will place my vote in the morning. Will likely vote for Poet. Everyone else should also state their most likely vote. I don't think there's too much risk of a wolf rush insta (4 votes to insta?), but it never hurts to be a little more cautious.
I have not slept much at all on account of my current sickness. I'm uncertain if I'll be able to make it to the end of the phase, as I may be sleeping during that time.
As of such,
The Musical Poet
I still think TZP/Specs is the most likely wolf pairing, but the risk-averse, paranoid, wannabe detective in me wants to hedge against the possibility of A#/Math or a Poet pairing as well before going all-in on that conclusion.
I don't think I'll be convinced for a poet lynch I'm just seeing erratic human
Toby who are your suspicions?
GTH the wolf pair is either TZP/Specs, A#/Math, or Toby/Poet. To hedge against all these possible options, my gut says to go for a Poet lynch today, ensuring A# is wolfed (like I wanted to do yesterday).
[/quote]
BDS there's a distinct possibility the game is in lylo, I don't think we can play for hedged bets anymore. I think everyone needs to decide who their most significant suspicion is
I'm curious also why you think that Poet is a likely partner for Toby compared to almost everyone else. It seems to me there are plenty of options there
I think my suspicion list runs
1. BDS
2. A# (close second)
3. Toby
4. Poet
Toby I was reading wolf but the "you should just lynch me" seemed genuine, as did his reasoning for the turnaround of the last few minutes with the assist from BDS and Poet. Even if Toby were a wolf, he couldn't be a partner with both of them, so I have to conclude that that was an organic rush, not a wolf-coordinated one.
A# I stand by the fact that I think she's holding back more than is customary for her, even ignoring the AFK stretches.
My BDS suspicions are a gut read based off the pattern of his posts that I'm struggling to articulate right now. I will come back later and try to be a bit more concrete about what I feel like I'm seeing with examples
I'd probably be okay with a TZP or toby lynch, I've just went through poet's posts and I don't see anything too alarming
I also don't think zbds is suspicious right now
ack
BDS, not "zbds"
hold up, that came out wrong
Quote from: A# Minor on November 13, 2023, 12:51:31 PMI've just went through poet's posts and I don't see anything too alarming
what I mean to say is "there's nothing that's suspicious in her posts itself, but I was only suspicious of her because of her general behavior/that possible wolf rush last phase, so I guess we could leave her for now? not really a top priority in my mind ig, just a possible pair with someone else"
A# who are you suspicious of, and do you think there are one or two wolves alive?
I think I could see it being BDS/A#
Or TZP as final wolf
Lynching BDS would secure my death tonight, lynching TZP lets the wolf choose who to kill
Lynching A# would secure Poets death which honestly just eliminates the least active players which helps. I don't really see A# as the last solo wolf but if there are 2 wolves Alive I think she's a good option as I can see BDS/A# together. Maybe even A#/Poet
Sorry I don't have much time today I have an interview tomorrow and once again I've had a day of flying across the country to London
I'm probably going to vote A# because I'm struggling to see a wolf pairing among TZP/BDS/Poet which means the game should go into an interesting day 4 with myself/BDS/TZP
I'm not in the head space or have the time capacity to dive into anything much further
TZP and BDS are probably both at the top of my sus pile but are also not partners
A# could be either of their partners and I'm just doing process of elimination
My ideal scenario would be lynching BDS and myself not being forced killed due to it and then going for TZP tomorrow
I just find BDS human reading me so hard so odd and think he's only done it to stay alive
Current votecount:
The Musical Poet: 1 (BlackDragonSlayer)
Less than two hours until the end of the phase!
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 12, 2023, 12:06:03 PMMy recent decisions have been heavily influenced by BDS, TZP, and you Toby. Which has added to my already horrible online status and limited time to further ruin my hasty thinking. Therefore, I have decided to clean up and finish my IRL work before coming back to this.
Just seen the last bit of this it might be a need for a replacement if she survives
I was about to vote A# but I don't want to be in LYLO with both TZP and BDS so I want to lynch them one after the other
Like I feel like BDS and A# could be a combo but I just don't think A# as a wolf would disappear for nearly a whole phase and also say that she will eat a closet or something if BDS is a wolf. They would make a good pairing but I think she human leaned him too hard for me to believe they actually are a pair
Lynching BDS would kill me and I'd rather not trust the LYLO with TZP and 2 half inactives
So I'm going to vote TZP
I could see A# and TZP paired, also TZP/Specs and TZP/math.
The complete change of tone this game as well as the reading Xiao for his change of tone I think is sus.
I'd like to lynch BDS next for having strong town leans on me which I think is just to save his bacon, I also think his reads on A# were odd thinking her disappearance was due to feeling defeated for her wolf partner math guy being lynched day 1 - I'm not sure I just don't buy that I don't think anyone would feel that.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 13, 2023, 01:28:44 PMA# who are you suspicious of, and do you think there are one or two wolves alive?
mostly you tbh. I'm reading BDS as human, toby is still neutral, and poet is ... being poet? idk about her anymore
so...
TZPI've been playing as if both wolves are alive, but imma review the deaths in a bit
waut a sec, I think I just insta'd him D:
No--three votes to insta. Please retract it
Toby help me convince you to vote for someone else. Let's talk
that was three votes — BDS, toby, and me
damn, sorry D:
I am voting A# because that is an insanely sus way to try to bump someone off. "oooooops did I do that" in a Steve Urkel voice
And BDS did not vote for me, the game is still going
oh youre right, guess i just saw "the" and went from there
and yeah, I'll take that accusation. D:
A# if you are a human, take your vote off me and tell me your thoughts on everyone
well, unvote for now to avoid an accidental insta. so far the only person I could see as a possible wolf was specs (or even math, as strange as that would be), but other than that (if my suspicions are correct) both wolves might be alive.
ninja'd — one sec
Unvote
A# if you still intend on voting me I will be voting Poet because I'd still rather take the chance she's not human and leave it up to a KitB than go gently. If you are uncomfortable with that let's talk about other options. Are you suspicious enough of BDS to lynch him?
well that definitely wasn't a second D:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 13, 2023, 05:41:37 PMA# if you still intend on voting me I will be voting Poet because I'd still rather take the chance she's not human and leave it up to a KitB than go gently. If you are uncomfortable with that let's talk about other options. Are you suspicious enough of BDS to lynch him?
well, seeing that I'm also sort of suspicious of poet, that may not be such a bad thing, although the fact that you're okay with that means that you're either a daredevil wolf or a human. sort of rethinking lynching you. I wasn't thinking of a BDS lynch, but I'm not against it because he's so hard to read
I don't know that anyone else is gonna show up, I think BDS and Toby have tapped for the night. How would you rank the players in order of how suspicious you are of them?
yeah, we're the only active ones rn
off of the top of my head:
1. tie between poet/bds
2. you (tzp)
3. toby (sort of giving him a chance ig?)
I guess the compromise would be either poet or BDS
I would prefer BDS by a wide margin
alright
BDS
after this phase, we'll see how many wolves are left
lol Specs and Math are both online to watch
BDS it is
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 13, 2023, 05:57:59 PMlol Specs and Math are both online to watch
I noticed that XD
hello guys!!
Votecount:
The Musical Poet: 1 (BlackDragonSlayer)
TheZeldaPianist275: 1 (Toby)
BlackDragonSlayer: 2 (A# Minor, TheZeldaPianist275)
BlackDragonSlayer has been lynched!
Current board:
| TheZeldaPianist275 | X | A# Minor |
| O | X | X |
| The Musical Poet | Toby | O |
It is now N3, which will last for 24 hours!
WE GOT ONE
alright, so we obviously got a wolf at some point. WOOOOO!!!
now let's see if Toby gets wolfed or not
I mean, if he's the last wolf, he just lost. If he's a human, he dies, and it's you, me, and Poet in LyLo
I can just imagine the final phase: you and me ripping each other apart while poet randomly comes online and reads all of that in total confusion
ninja'd
I guess we may as well discuss this now: who of our three lynches do you think was most likely to have been a wolf?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 13, 2023, 06:38:14 PMI guess we may as well discuss this now: who of our three lynches do you think was most likely to have been a wolf?
Since I'm here, I'll do this.
Math has a 50/50 chance to be a wolf or not, I suppose.
Specs has a 2/3 or maybe 1/6 chance of being a wolf
BDS has like a 2/5 or 1/5 chance of being a wolf
I like these statistics.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 13, 2023, 06:38:14 PMI guess we may as well discuss this now: who of our three lynches do you think was most likely to have been a wolf?
probably specs, wouldn't be surprised if it's BDS tho (although we would've lynched him, so I don't have to hide in my closet for a week). math just seems too good to be true lol
Quote from: A# Minor on November 13, 2023, 07:42:58 PMmath just seems too good to be true lol
math being a wolf is just based on luck :/
Well we got a wolf somewhere at least
Judging by last votes it's unlikely that BDS was paired with anyone still alive, and therefore unlikely that he was a wolf in the end.
I'm dead tonight but I'll try dive into suspicions before my demise
How does A# go from town reading BDS so strongly and voting TZP, to then siding with TZP to vote BDS
like what
Quote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 12:20:18 AMJudging by last votes it's unlikely that BDS was paired with anyone still alive, and therefore unlikely that he was a wolf in the end.
I think this is right. I would say that it's most likely that Math was a wolf, to be honest—I still read Specs' input as human pretty strongly and there are just no data points to work with at all for Math
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 13, 2023, 07:37:58 PMSince I'm here, I'll do this.
Math has a 50/50 chance to be a wolf or not, I suppose.
Specs has a 2/3 or maybe 1/6 chance of being a wolf
BDS has like a 2/5 or 1/5 chance of being a wolf
I like these statistics.
Poet can you explain these numbers to me
I'm not even gonna pretend anymore
I was the last wolf so gg everyone i actually am just going to wolf myself tonight
wha
what just happened
Quote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 08:21:32 AMI'm not even gonna pretend anymore
I was the last wolf so gg everyone i actually am just going to wolf myself tonight
not convinced
I either wolf myself tonight I lose to tic tac toe tomorrow ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
yeah, just do it the cool way and wolf yourself >:)
Ladies and gentlemen
We got him
Yeah I lied I'm not last wolf but 3 very different reactions to that
Poet doesn't understand what happened yet seems to have grasped the game and TTT and if I was the wolf my game would be up anyway because I lose TTT or die
A# immediately doesn't believe it and calls my bluff ? What's the human mindset behind that ?
TZP believes I guess and makes his first lighthearted post of the game <3
I could be suspicious of all 3 reactions tbh lol
it will all depend on who dies tonight.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 14, 2023, 12:18:00 PMit will all depend on who dies tonight.
???
I'm dying tonight
We have a 2/3 in a row set up wolves need to kill me to block
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 09, 2023, 08:24:17 PMA#. This may be a rookie move, but her lack of activity is extremely high, even compared to the last round. This seems strange since when I looked through the past games, she was incredibly into the game and spoke a ton. I understand that she isn't as active as before, but her posts aren't collaborating very much. You would expect somebody like that would try to find things people haven't thought about, or added on to the subject.
I'm not as sure of this but I may choose Toby. I find it strange that they are constantly trying to attack Specs even when it is apparent that Specs is actively helping by listing all the possible outcomes.
Part of me just does not believe Poet read previous games of A# and thinks this is a lie to seem like she's being more helpful to town
Like you said you were gonna do a suspicion list twice and didn't and i thought that was because you had no time
at this point everyone is sus in my mind, but i think i might just go for poet. if math was indeed a wolf, she'd be a pretty good companion for him and that would explain her avoiding making a suspicion list
Quote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 11:22:51 AMA# immediately doesn't believe it and calls my bluff ? What's the human mindset behind that ?
I was messing around, although it's kinda hard to imagine a wolf just say "guys imma die tonight, good job humans"
If I was a wolf I lost anyway
I thought tzp not seeming sceptical at all was sus
A# how did you go from human leaning BDS and voting TZP, to then being convinced by TZP to vote BDS
I'll be honest Toby I bought it completely. That response was genuine and I was surprised to see you walk it back. I think that it is much more reasonable to be suspicious of the players who called cap on/acted confused by you claiming wolf than on the person who thought it was a live possibility
Quote from: A# Minor on November 14, 2023, 03:05:48 PMI was messing around, although it's kinda hard to imagine a wolf just say "guys imma die tonight, good job humans"
It's really not that unreasonable—Specs did it in Assassin's Gambit, forfeited rather than let the game play out, it's a way to end the game on your terms rather than play out a foregone conclusion
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 14, 2023, 03:11:59 PMI'll be honest Toby I bought it completely. That response was genuine and I was surprised to see you walk it back. I think that it is much more reasonable to be suspicious of the players who called cap on/acted confused by you claiming wolf than on the person who thought it was a live possibility
My opinion would be that a wolves first impression would be to try blend in and buy it. Because obviously they should be the only person who could confirm it was false. Therefore it's a case of trying to hunt whose reaction is least genuine.
You have poet who acted confused, and you with a celebration. Both similar. I think I like poets reaction less
Then A# didn't buy it. As a wolf would she openly admit that? Knowing she's the only player who could confirm that?
I'm leaning to A# being human for that, and honestly with the TZP to BDS vote switching I feel it's too chaotic to be a wolf.
Poet I thought was being a chaotic human too but I they've ignored responding to quite a few points throughout the topic, proposed they were going to do a suspicion list twice, have claimed no be very busy in their personal life, and yet said they went and read some of A#'s previous games ? I don't buy it.
It's hard because poet and A# have like newish playstyles while also lacking much effort in their play so reading either of them takes compensation to try not jump the gun on their suspicious plays. Neither have wolf hunted much this game and just posted little bits here and there whereas TZP I would expect to wolf hunt regardless of alignment. We should have eliminated poet/A# while we had the chance! (My bad?)
TZP has not been as sus but I hold him to a higher standard. A# and poet are much susser than TZP but both of them can't be wolves which proves the need to compensate for different playstyles lol.
Poet could be maths partner but she did lynch Specs so I don't think she'd be Specs
TZP could be specs or math partner
A# could be either specs or math
Quote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 03:11:21 PMA# how did you go from human leaning BDS and voting TZP, to then being convinced by TZP to vote BDS
I mean, bds is such a good player that I was thinking he could be fooling us all this entire time and I guess it's not such a bad idea to get him out of the question *shrug*
also, poet, I wasn't really
that active in the other games. I was pretty quiet and confused at the beginning of nothing special 2 before I sort of got the hang of it, totally failed for just a numbers game, and then — ah, you know the rest
wow I just got ninja'd by the great wall of
china text
I'm going to sleep
I would read A# human
And I would vote between TZP and poet
I want to say poet and A# have been too chaotic to actually be wolves so I want to say vote TZP but I would hate to lose to poet for thinking she's acting too sus to actually be a wolf
If I had a vote I'd go TZP but I am concerned because I think poet slipped saying she read A# previous games, but she also did start the game with a bit of a bang trying to be helpful and then seemed to lose interest naturally. She didn't play like that in her last wolf game
Quote from: A# Minor on November 14, 2023, 03:36:28 PMI mean, bds is such a good player that I was thinking he could be fooling us all this entire time and I guess it's not such a bad idea to get him out of the question *shrug*
also, poet, I wasn't really that active in the other games. I was pretty quiet and confused at the beginning of nothing special 2 before I sort of got the hang of it, totally failed for just a numbers game, and then — ah, you know the rest
wow I just got ninja'd by the great wall of china text
So you think it's good to lynch good players to get them out the way ?
Quote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 03:31:18 PMMy opinion would be that a wolves first impression would be to try blend in and buy it. Because obviously they should be the only person who could confirm it was false. Therefore it's a case of trying to hunt whose reaction is least genuine.
You have poet who acted confused, and you with a celebration. Both similar. I think I like poets reaction less
Then A# didn't buy it. As a wolf would she openly admit that? Knowing she's the only player who could confirm that?
I'm leaning to A# being human for that, and honestly with the TZP to BDS vote switching I feel it's too chaotic to be a wolf.
Poet I thought was being a chaotic human too but I they've ignored responding to quite a few points throughout the topic, proposed they were going to do a suspicion list twice, have claimed no be very busy in their personal life, and yet said they went and read some of A#'s previous games ? I don't buy it.
It's hard because poet and A# have like newish playstyles while also lacking much effort in their play so reading either of them takes compensation to try not jump the gun on their suspicious plays. Neither have wolf hunted much this game and just posted little bits here and there whereas TZP I would expect to wolf hunt regardless of alignment. We should have eliminated poet/A# while we had the chance! (My bad?)
TZP has not been as sus but I hold him to a higher standard. A# and poet are much susser than TZP but both of them can't be wolves which proves the need to compensate for different playstyles lol.
Poet could be maths partner but she did lynch Specs so I don't think she'd be Specs
TZP could be specs or math partner
A# could be either specs or math
Yeah this all makes sense honestly. I suppose the reason that I jumped to believing it so quickly is because I have been trying to get a lock on what the weirdness was with the "you should lynch me SIKE". As you said, in a high-stakes situation, BDS voted Poet, and A# and I both voted BDS, so none of us were gonna be partners with him. I thought there was an outside chance that you and he were going for a mixed strat, where he buddied you and you distanced yourself from him, and that could have sliced through the Gordian knot. Apparently not, but that's where my mind went when I took a break at work today to check the thread
I'm leaning A# over Poet to be honest. I feel like she was way too excited to insta me last night, and switched to BDS, who she claimed to have read as human, almost as a knee-jerk to buddy me after a mistake
Quote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 03:39:51 PMI want to say vote TZP but I would hate to lose to poet for thinking she's acting too sus to actually be a wolf
we dont support luigis who win by doing nothingQuote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 03:40:27 PMSo you think it's good to lynch good players to get them out the way ?
not necessarily "good", but not bad either ig
oh uh ill be back later
Out of all the reactions posts was most easily falsified
Toby has died in the night!
Current board:
| TheZeldaPianist275 | X | A# Minor |
| O | X | X |
| The Musical Poet | O | O |
It is now D4, which will last for 48 hours!
Quote from: A# Minor on November 14, 2023, 03:05:48 PMat this point everyone is sus in my mind, but i think i might just go for poet. if math was indeed a wolf, she'd be a pretty good companion for him and that would explain her avoiding making a suspicion list
essays go brrr
Quote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 01:21:35 PM???
I'm dying tonight
We have a 2/3 in a row set up wolves need to kill me to block
oh wait I'm an idiot
Quote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 03:31:18 PMPoet I thought was being a chaotic human too but I they've ignored responding to quite a few points throughout the topic, proposed they were going to do a suspicion list twice, have claimed no be very busy in their personal life, and yet said they went and read some of A#'s previous games ? I don't buy it.
1. What did I ignore?
2. The susipicion's list was a mistake, I shouldn't had said that I was doing it without being sure that I would have time to do it.
3. I never really read into the previous games, rather had looked over them one or twice. I just had noticed that A# was very active in her past games.
bruh toby is dead
Reminder: DON'T VOTE until very close to phase end to avoid a wolf rush. Got plenty of time to make a decision.
I'll reread the thread again tomorrow during breaks at work and share thoughts. I really feel like I haven't played well this game but I at least want to do the last phase right
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 14, 2023, 07:20:15 PMbruh toby is dead
PaY aTtEnTiOn, PoEt
yeah, I'll be rereading the thread a few times and see if I can pick up on anything I might have missed
Quote from: Toby on November 14, 2023, 03:59:09 PMOut of all the reactions posts was most easily falsified
did he mean "poet's" instead of "posts"?
Quote from: A# Minor on November 14, 2023, 10:03:48 PMdid he mean "poet's" instead of "posts"?
think he meant me :/
I mean I was incredibly confused why Toby just outright threw a curveball at us, and (I regret to say this) I slightly believed Toby's statement. ugh
Game breakdown and A#'s and Poet's roles in the goings-on
D0 Math lynch: A# says she isn't sure what to play, but provides a suspicion list with me, Specs, and BDS in the top tier and then instas Math at the very end of the phase (when he is already certain to die). Poet clocks in late in the phase and says that lynching center may be a good idea but doesn't vote at all. Also Specs puts A# at the tip-top of his suspicion list this phase, which I hadn't remembered.
N1 Xiao wolfing: Poet says Specs is going to die because she interprets THC's role as a pre-existing X on the board? Specs immediately responds to that with a meme to express his confusion. A# stays quiet. Both Poet and A# say they need to sleep more. BDS and Specs observe that because THC was left alive, the wolves could have felt the pressure to wolf a corner to avoid losing via a tic-tac-toe force.
D1 knife in the box: Specs and I talk a bunch about the lynch domino chains and Specs' conclusion is to go for A# over Poet. (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12818.msg438871#msg438871) Poet agrees that A#'s behavior is suspicious. A# is a no-show, but Poet votes Specs to avoid getting a phantom (? why Specs and not someone else?)
N2 THC wolfing: A# weighs in (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=12818.msg438977#msg438977) with some disconnected observations.
D2 BDS lynch: A# says Toby and I are suspicious but then joins me in a BDS lynch. She also makes a meal out of saying she accidentally insta'd me. Poet is MIA.
N3 Toby wolfing: Toby plays a mindgame and claims to be the last wolf. A# says she doesn't buy it at all, Poet acts purely confused and even after Toby fesses up, claims to not think it's a given that Toby will die in the night.
So I think the wolf pairs are either A#/Math, Poet/Math, or (highly unlikely) Poet/Specs. BDS observed that A# could totally have dialed out after losing her partner to a tough initial board roll, and A# said even thinking about herself as a lone wolf gave her a headache, which didn't seem prompted at all. However I'm also aware that A# has been a high suspicion for me all game and I don't want to tunnel her, and Poet's behavior has been perfectly compatible with Math as a wolf partner. Her vote for Specs as part of the final 3 minutes KitB would seem to disqualify her as a Specs partner, but I suppose that could possibly have been a last-minute distancing attempt that was hijacked by Toby and BDS and actually killed Specs.
It's highly likely in my eyes at this point that Math was the first wolf and they've been fighting an uphill battle the whole time here
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 15, 2023, 05:24:57 PMN1 Xiao wolfing: Poet says Specs is going to die because she interprets THC's role as a pre-existing X on the board? Specs immediately responds to that with a meme to express his confusion. A# stays quiet. Both Poet and A# say they need to sleep more. BDS and Specs observe that because THC was left alive, the wolves could have felt the pressure to wolf a corner to avoid losing via a tic-tac-toe force.
That was very embarrassing.
Also, I forgot to vote day 1
including the fact I forgot that toby was going to die.
ugh, I let too many things slip out my mind.
You gotta give me more than that Poet. Help me solve this here—is it you or A#?
I feel like poet was gone for a lot of really important stuff, but then I kinda was too *shrug*
if math was actually a wolf, I could hardly see TZP being his partner, so I'm thinking of going for poet for now?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 15, 2023, 08:27:01 PMis it you or A#?
honestly tho, we already know what she's gonna say
Why wouldn't I be Math's partner, A#?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 15, 2023, 08:27:01 PMHelp me solve this here—is it you or A#?
Why are you suddenly pointing at us? Why not include yourself as nobody here can prove their innocence?
Quote from: A# Minor on November 15, 2023, 09:42:39 PMhonestly tho, we already know what she's gonna say
Eariler I believed so, but I don't want to cause a mislynch and die, so I'll keep hold for now.
I had decided that I would vote Specs because of the horrible force lynches we would have to do, if we voted for anybody else. Yes, we could have also voted for you, but there is more space for flexibility if we had voted Specs. And I didn't really want to lynch Toby as he cleared himself from my suspicions (this is one of the areas where I was led by the others :/ )
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 16, 2023, 06:46:28 AMWhy are you suddenly pointing at us? Why not include yourself as nobody here can prove their innocence?
??? I'm not "suddenly" doing anything. Regardless of whether I'm a human or a wolf, I would not vote for myself, from my perspective it is between you and A#.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 16, 2023, 07:15:14 AMI had decided that I would vote Specs because of the horrible force lynches we would have to do, if we voted for anybody else. Yes, we could have also voted for you, but there is more space for flexibility if we had voted Specs. And I didn't really want to lynch Toby as he cleared himself from my suspicions (this is one of the areas where I was led by the others :/ )
Is the "you" in this quote me or A#?
Quote from: A# Minor on November 15, 2023, 09:42:39 PMhonestly tho, we already know what she's gonna say
I mean, of course she's going to try to defend herself over you, but on what basis? No offense to either of you, but it's a very tough situation for humans to wind up in endgame with the two least active players. Pretty much the only way to win now is for all of us to get reads on each other, and we're only going to do that by talking and responding thoughtfully to narratives and accusations.
Who are you both leaning toward voting, and why?
Here are my thoughts.
I could argue you were the wolf, because at some point we killed one. And A# was inactive for most of the game, so if we killed a wolf early. It would be possible that you are the remaining wolf as A# would be too inactive to be able to wolf.
However, I could also say that A# was the wolf, because she had started to be more active around Spec's death, (it just happened to be around when we realized that we had killed a wolf at some point.). It may be possible that her partner had warned her to be more active otherwise they would lose the game, since the players would had noticed that the wolf hadn't killed.
These ideas are based on which round the wolf was wolfed.
So your (TZP) lynches could be (Math, and Specs)
And A#'s would be BDS.
A# is a lot more likely however.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 16, 2023, 08:22:16 AMHere are my thoughts.
I could argue you were the wolf, because at some point we killed one. And A# was inactive for most of the game, so if we killed a wolf early. It would be possible that you are the remaining wolf as A# would be too inactive to be able to wolf.
However, I could also say that A# was the wolf, because she had started to be more active around Spec's death, (it just happened to be around when we realized that we had killed a wolf at some point.). It may be possible that her partner had warned her to be more active otherwise they would lose the game, since the players would had noticed that the wolf hadn't killed.
These ideas are based on which round the wolf was LYNCHED.
So your (TZP) lynches could be (Math, and Specs)
And A#'s would be BDS.
A# is a lot more likely however.
I have gained the Toby-virus
Why would A#'s partner be BDS? She joined me in swinging the lynch toward him at the last moment.
Also I understand what you're saying here but I don't think we can say "this person wasn't posting, that means he/she couldn't have sent in a wolfing". That takes like 30 seconds to do and you can do it even if you're busy with other things.
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 15, 2023, 11:31:07 AMthink he meant me :/
I mean I was incredibly confused why Toby just outright threw a curveball at us, and (I regret to say this) I slightly believed Toby's statement. ugh
Also, why do you regret believing Toby's wolfclaim?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 16, 2023, 08:51:39 AMWhy would A#'s partner be BDS? She joined me in swinging the lynch toward him at the last moment.
Also I understand what you're saying here but I don't think we can say "this person wasn't posting, that means he/she couldn't have sent in a wolfing". That takes like 30 seconds to do and you can do it even if you're busy with other things.
It's just like the possible options based off what I said, but it is true that it wouldn't make sense.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 16, 2023, 08:53:54 AMAlso, why do you regret believing Toby's wolfclaim?
I was gullible. I was embarrassed by my gullibility.
see, that's interesting to me, because I bought it entirely and don't think it was unreasonable to do so, and also, it didn't even seem that your initial response to the claim was you believing it like I did. You just seemed confused by it.
Something I noticed about Poet as a wolf last game that I didn't see in her first game was sort of a willingness to voice disgust/disappointment with her reactions to things or the general state of the game. In her first game if she was caught off-guard by something it was "sorry, I don't know how this works, it may have been a mistake to play." In Lantern Keeper though, she said "ugh" a couple of times and maintained more of a distance—like, "what a fine pickle this situation is", and I noticed she is doing the same now. I'm wondering if feigning a detached disapproval of the game is how she responds to pressure as a wolf.
Leaning toward Poet over A# now
Also I am driving a few hours this evening and probably am going to need to make a final vote a few hours before phase end. A#, we need you to clock in bad!
Rethinking one piece of this—I stand by what I said that it's easier to pair A# and Poet with Math than with Specs, but I don't want to rule out Specs entirely. It occurs to me that the Xiao wolfing is very much a Specs play. I think a lot people would have gone for THC immediately to eliminate a human just because he was confirmed, but THC was in a side slot—not an ideal spot to play to win TTT. Specs is a very analytical person, and he also was the one pushing the hardest for attention to the board layout. If anyone passed on a THC wolfing due to the position on the board, it'd be him.
Looking at the arrangement of the board it also affects his partners as well. THC and Xiao are both in TTT win lines with Specs and Poet, but as stated above I think that Specs would want to avoid playing the side, so that's why he went for Xiao instead, to disincentivize his and Poet's lynches. If the wolves are A# and Specs the circumstantial evidence is even stronger—two wolves in a row with a human? That's a tough setup, and it's probably best to wolf that human to spur an A# or Specs lynch as much as possible.
I have an easier time buying Poet as Specs' partner, though, because of the sus that he and A# were throwing on each other at the start of the game when there wasn't much cause to do so. So if this is true, it's another reason to lynch Poet.
^^the above should say "to spur away from an A# or Specs lynch as much as possible"
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 16, 2023, 11:32:16 AMsee, that's interesting to me, because I bought it entirely and don't think it was unreasonable to do so, and also, it didn't even seem that your initial response to the claim was you believing it like I did. You just seemed confused by it.
Well, I greeted it with surprise, yes. And I didn't think much about my message, but for the time before Toby explained his lie, I was walking with a spring in my step.
Yes, I have changed. But the reasons was being that I was too open on my first round, and accidently told the wolves everything they needed to know about my role. Because of this, I needed to become more reserved :/
However, I understand your point. It is rather strange to see this change.
I've got probably half an hour ish before I need to vote. A#, need you here NOW
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 16, 2023, 11:34:02 AMA#, we need you to clock in bad!
fear not, for i am here now
after a quick scan of the thread, I'm still leaning on a poet lynch atm. her tone and general behavior seems very odd and her reaction to... her reaction doesn't sit well with me at all
Ok but that would be a very easy thing to say as a wolf, because I am openly building a case against her, whereas she has not done the same for either you or me. So maybe that makes me want to vote you instead
I'm out of time. If someone wants to persuade me, last chance
Going with my gut. The Musical Poet.
Alea iacta est.
oof, came in late
Poet
so long gay bowser
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on November 16, 2023, 03:41:07 PMI'm out of time. If someone wants to persuade me, last chance
I wouldn't have time anyway :/
ORICORIO THERE'S AN INSTA
Quote from: The Musical Poet on November 16, 2023, 04:42:24 PMORICORIO THERE'S AN INSTA
YES
YOU'VE MET WITH A TERRIBLE FATE, HAVEN'T YOU??
Quote from: A# Minor on November 16, 2023, 04:44:27 PMYES
YOU'VE MET WITH A TERRIBLE FATE, HAVEN'T YOU??
THIS HAPPENED BECAUSE I WAS OFFLINE AND I COULDN'T CONVINCE TZP OTHERWISE.
oh yeah since I'm techincally dead now, I bet A# was the wolf.
Votecount:
The Musical Poet: 2 (TheZeldaPianist275, A# Minor)
The Musical Poet has been lynched!
Current board:
| TheZeldaPianist275 | X | A# Minor |
| O | X | X |
| X | O | O |
Endgame has been achieved! The postgame thread shall be up shortly.
finally. now i am dead
when is this going to get locked