TWG CXXIII:(https://i.imgur.com/O9dpExK.jpeg)
Wolves:1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).
Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.
The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.
Humans:3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
Special powers:- Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
- Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.
If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.
Win conditions:- The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- Humans win when both wolves are dead.
Host clarifications:- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.
---
Players:1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo2
7. TheZeldaPianist
Role PMs:Each role PM features two components: one for the role, and one for whether you also wield the power of one of the seers.
Human
You are a Human with a normal body temperature of 98.6 °F (37 °C). You do not know why, but your community is being targeted by wolves. Hunt the beasts down... before they get you first.
Fire Wolf
Scorching flames lap at your feet... You are Arcanine, the Fire Wolf. The places you once used to live in have been destroyed to make way for human civilization. You are used to the sensation of running far across the lands... but now, there is nowhere left to run. It is time to fight back and protect your home.
Each night (including N1), you may choose one living player to burn. That player will permanently lose half their vote and will not be notified. At any point, if they are also chilled by the Ice Wolf, they will die.
Each night starting from N2, you may also choose one living player to paint red. They will be seered red by the Fire Seer for that night only.
Ice Wolf
Shimmering crystals flutter around you... You are Ninetales, the Ice Wolf. For centuries, you have watched from your mountaintop as wild territories have been trampled, bulldozed, and obliterated to build human cities. And you are not an animal known for your forgiveness. It is time to exact revenge for your fallen friends.
Each night (including N1), you may choose one living player to chill. That player will permanently lose half their vote and will not be notified. At any point, if they are also burned by the Fire Wolf, they will die.
Each night starting from N2, you may also choose one living player to paint blue. They will be seered blue by the Ice Seer for that night only.
No seering role
You have not been chosen to wield any spiritual powers.
Fire Seer
You have also been bestowed the power of Sear, the Fire Seer. Each night starting from N2, you may choose one living player to seer. They will return red if they either (a) are the Fire Wolf or (b) were painted by the Fire Wolf that night, and green otherwise.
Ice Seer
You have also been bestowed the power of Icier, the Ice Seer. Each night starting from N2, you may choose one living player to seer. They will return blue if they either (a) are the Ice Wolf or (b) were painted by the Ice Wolf that night, and green otherwise.
- In-thread and forum PM communication is allowed during all phases for all living players.
Please remember to cc me on all PMs. If you forget for any reason, forward them to me.
- You can change your night actions before night phase end; I will use the action from the last PM you sent me.
- Editing posts is strictly forbidden.
- You may not use Who's Online information for in-game reasoning. I suggest turning your online status invisible so others will not accidentally see your forum actions.
- If there are any questions about rules, you may either PM me or ask in the thread. If the latter, make sure it is clearly addressed to me.
It is now Night 1. Night 1 will end at 8:00:00 PM EDT in two days, on Tuesday, June 25th, 48 hours from the time of this post (apologies for being a few minutes late).
The game has now begun. You may now post!
After the assassin game, it'll definitely be interesting to see another game where the wolves are (kinda) pitted against each other.
This goes without saying, but we definitely have to be more careful and be sure that we're all on the same page when it comes to the lynch. With vote manipulation shenanigans going on we could very well end up in a situation where the person the majority of people are voting for isn't the person who ends up getting lynched.
Cue "It's Been Awhile" by Staind
So basically, wolves can't die in the night, only humans can. How accurate we'll need to be in our lynches will depend on things like how coordinated the wolves are, but don't expect there to be more than one.
Seers can clear a player from one of the wolf slots, but the utility of it is questionable when there's no way to confirm if a wolf is dead. Seer information would be useful to the wolves as well as it could tell them who to target to advance their wincon more quickly, so be careful about divulging that information.
Also, red or blue seerings are more likely than not to still be humans
So the wolves can't kill each other, but they can have their vote cut in half.
I agree that the value of a seer result is not as strong in this game, especially as the game progresses with more and more players being burned/chilled as the game progresses. Add that to the temporary paintings on N2 onward, and there's a good possibility that most of the field will be colored something by N2. The probability of lynching a human as a result of a positive seering goes up as the game progresses.
Even D1, a positive seer result is only a 50/50 of being the wolf, as both the wolf and the N1 permanent chill/burn will be colored.
If a seer receives a positive result tonight, revealing it and lynching that player yields the best probability of lynching a wolf via seering result all game, but it will put a target on their backs for being burned/chilled later.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 24, 2024, 06:11:29 AMSo the wolves can't kill each other, but they can have their vote cut in half.
I agree that the value of a seer result is not as strong in this game, especially as the game progresses with more and more players being burned/chilled as the game progresses. Add that to the temporary paintings on N2 onward, and there's a good possibility that most of the field will be colored something by N2. The probability of lynching a human as a result of a positive seering goes up as the game progresses.
Even D1, a positive seer result is only a 50/50 of being the wolf, as both the wolf and the N1 permanent chill/burn will be colored.
If a seer receives a positive result tonight, revealing it and lynching that player yields the best probability of lynching a wolf via seering result all game, but it will put a target on their backs for being burned/chilled later.
Two changes to clarify from the initial draft of the game:
- Players who are burned/chilled are not colored red/blue. Only the Fire and Ice Wolf and painted targets are seered red or blue.
- There is no seering N1.
Quote from: mastersuperfan on June 24, 2024, 06:22:36 AMTwo changes to clarify from the initial draft of the game:
- Players who are burned/chilled are not colored red/blue. Only the Fire and Ice Wolf and painted targets are seered red or blue.
- There is no seering N1.
Got it. In that case, ignore everything I said in post 7.
Ignore everything I've said so far too lol
So we're back at square one :P
I imagine that if one of the wolves got a seer power and seers someone the opposite color, they might be more inclined to try to leak the knowledge publicly, but otherwise I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for a human seer to reveal their seering, especially if the person they seered is already suspected. It could very well be the deciding factor toward lynching someone versus not.
Since the painting each night (starting N2) is temporary, any positive seer result is a 50/50 wolf. It also proves the respective wolf is still alive, as the wolf would have had to been alive that night to paint someone.
Is it worth seer claiming and lynching the result based on a 50/50? Probably depends on the circumstances, but having someone with a 50% chance of being a wolf does seem powerful.
Hello everyone! I am sore and tired, but here and ready to play. If anyone is curious, my marathon time is faster than Specs'. (Math still has us both beat though)
I have a suggestion for the seer powers, not that it's relevant for N1. BDS bringing up the assassin game reminded me of forcing the wolves into a position where they had to play against each other. Since the seers are sort of each cordoned into hunting for one wolf, what if, when a seer receives a positive result, they claim that they received a positive result on that player, but not which color? The reason I suggest this is because Arcanine has an interest in keeping the Ice Seer alive, and vice versa with Ninetales and the Fire Seer. Since humans only die in the night if both wolves coordinate the hit, this decreases the incentive for the wolves to both target that seer.
This isn't a broken strategy by any means, because as people have already pointed out, the same night seerings go live is the same night that the waters are muddied by the wolf paintings, so it's not surefire, but I think it does give the seers slightly better odds of survival.
24 hours left in Night 1!
As I can tell, there are two main strategies the wolves can use: a wolf-wolf alliance and a wolf-Seer "alliance". The first is obvious, the wolves find each other via PM and coordinate their actions, leaving town little recourse but to act completely as a unit with even one defection potentially making the game unwinnable. Of course, that strategy would require a lot of risk for the wolves to initiate, so it's more likely we'll see the second strategy. As the seers are only a threat to one wolf each, it's advantageous for a wolf to find the seer that isn't a threat to them and use their results to control the narrative. In order to counter such a strategy, the two Seers need to be 100% coordinated. Of course, a wolf can be the seer, which carries its own problems.
Worst-case scenario for town going into D1 is the wolves converge on one player, leaving us at 4-1-1. If town mislynches, there aren't many scenarios where town can still win unless the wolves crossfire. But I find that scenario somewhat unlikely, so let's assume that we will have three townies with a full vote, one or two with a half vote, and one of the wolves possibly having a half vote. In that case, as long as the wolves aren't coordinating behind the scenes a mislynch probably would be allowed. Still, again I would be a little careful about lynching someone based on seer results, it's a 50-50 at best and potentially even further stacked in wolves' favor as they can paint the person they think is most likely to be seer'd, something that I notably couldn't do in the Grinch game.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 24, 2024, 08:56:26 PMAs the seers are only a threat to one wolf each, it's advantageous for a wolf to find the seer that isn't a threat to them and use their results to control the narrative.
But it's
not advantageous for the seer. Maybe we can make a 'rule' to not agree on seer stuff in groups smaller than three?
Also it would be nice to hear from THC at some point...
Quote from: Oricorio on June 24, 2024, 08:56:26 PMAs I can tell, there are two main strategies the wolves can use: a wolf-wolf alliance and a wolf-Seer "alliance". The first is obvious, the wolves find each other via PM and coordinate their actions, leaving town little recourse but to act completely as a unit with even one defection potentially making the game unwinnable. Of course, that strategy would require a lot of risk for the wolves to initiate, so it's more likely we'll see the second strategy. As the seers are only a threat to one wolf each, it's advantageous for a wolf to find the seer that isn't a threat to them and use their results to control the narrative. In order to counter such a strategy, the two Seers need to be 100% coordinated. Of course, a wolf can be the seer, which carries its own problems
Yeah I think this is a good insight. There's definitely a risk of a wolf saying to another player "hey I'm getting seer vibes from you, I'm a seer too, let's coordinate a human alliance", made even more plausible since the door is open for a wolf to be a seer as well. Another way of saying that is the incentives for wolf/wolf or wolf/seer collaboration are higher than seer/seer collaboration—so be wary of people trying to cozy up to you privately.
What do you guys think of my suggestion that seers publicly claim positive hits but not which color?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 24, 2024, 11:39:54 PMAlso it would be nice to hear from THC at some point...
Sorry, I spent all day yesterday cleaning out my room, this is the first chance I've even had to get on the forums since the game started.
I did want to clarify with
@mastersuperfan, does the Sear see the Ice Wolf as green (and vice-versa with the Icier and Fire Wolf)? The wording has me a little confused. I have some thoughts on the seer situation, but it really depends on this.
The way I understood it is that Sear will only receive red or green seerings, and Icier will only receive blue or green seerings. So the Fire Seer is calibrated to look for the Fire Wolf but is blind to the Ice Wolf (and vice versa). to offset that, the each wolf gets a painting power that only works on the specific seer looking for that wolf. MSF can correct me if I'm misunderstanding but I think the game was designed with this dynamic in mind
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on June 25, 2024, 10:18:42 AMSorry, I spent all day yesterday cleaning out my room, this is the first chance I've even had to get on the forums since the game started.
I did want to clarify with @mastersuperfan, does the Sear see the Ice Wolf as green (and vice-versa with the Icier and Fire Wolf)? The wording has me a little confused. I have some thoughts on the seer situation, but it really depends on this.
Yes, unless the Ice Wolf is also painted red by the Fire Wolf that same night.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 25, 2024, 10:25:55 AMThe way I understood it is that Sear will only receive red or green seerings, and Icier will only receive blue or green seerings. So the Fire Seer is calibrated to look for the Fire Wolf but is blind to the Ice Wolf (and vice versa). to offset that, the each wolf gets a painting power that only works on the specific seer looking for that wolf. MSF can correct me if I'm misunderstanding but I think the game was designed with this dynamic in mind
This is correct.
Hm... Sounds like the seer results wouldn't be super useful then. I can only think of one way that would have a highly increased chance, though not 100%, of finding a wolf, and it would still require a lot of luck. I won't say it here just because bringing attention to it could give the wolves the easy answer to combatting it. I think the fact that it takes both wolves to kill someone is definitely going to our benefit here, as it will help elongate the game so we can get more info.
What do you mean that seer results won't be useful, THC? Even if there's never a way to 100% verify that a result isn't a false positive, it's still an investigative power in a small game, I think it will be very helpful
Admittedly, I was neglecting the fact that anyone seer'd green is a confirmed human. With that in mind, the seers are indeed very useful. I was only thinking of it from the angle of a Blue or Red seering as being just as likely to be a wolf or human without other context.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on June 25, 2024, 11:26:00 AMAdmittedly, I was neglecting the fact that anyone seer'd green is a confirmed human. With that in mind, the seers are indeed very useful. I was only thinking of it from the angle of a Blue or Red seering as being just as likely to be a wolf or human without other context.
If I'm understanding things correctly, you'd have to be double seered green to be confirmed human. Considering that, I think there's still a potential reason to reveal colors.
By "double seered," I mean both seers would have to seer you at the same time. I think it's a viable strategy, albeit risky, to try and get the seers to coordinate seerings—it just depends on whether or not the wolves themselves are able to coordinate rather than fully playing against each other, or whether we even wanna take that risk in the first place or just leave the seers to their own devices.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 25, 2024, 09:46:09 AMWhat do you guys think of my suggestion that seers publicly claim positive hits but not which color?
My issue what that is it makes the seer role way easier to fake. If a wolf (or even a human) fakeclaims a vanilla seer, both seers can chalk it up to it being the other seer.
If someone fakeclaims a color seer, the real seer will know that it's fake.
I feel like that could still make the seers an unwanted target, is it better for the wolves to just target anyone who outs themselselves?
TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and IceWolves:1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).
Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.
The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.
Humans:3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
Special powers:- Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
- Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.
If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.
Win conditions:- The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- Humans win when both wolves are dead.
Host clarifications:- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.
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Players:1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo2
7. TheZeldaPianist
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Arctic Inferno Blast!(https://64.media.tumblr.com/49503fb8970d1cb96333116104be3b0f/559d8255ac4e5af0-59/s540x810/c646f0bbb76a4d6e02df4e8de06292192f1550dc.gifv)
ThatHiddenCharacter was found dead in the night, suffering from a severe case of freezer burn.It is now Day 1. Day 1 ends in 48 hours, at 8:00:00 PM EDT on Thursday, June 27th.Some reminders for voting during the day phase:- There are no instas.
- You may change your vote (including unvote), but no-lynch is not an option.
- Phantoms will be awarded for those without active votes at the end of the phase.
- Intermittent "apparent" vote counts (e.g. not including burn/chill effects) will be posted throughout the phase. Following the lynch, "true" vote counts (including burn/chill) will be revealed.
well that's not good...
Okay... so THC got chilled and burned last night. And everyone's at full strength voting.
THC is a strange target for the wolves to arrive at independently. This likely suggests that wolves are cooperating (that, or THC did something like claim seer to both wolves). At least we know that all our votes are worth the same.
time to make a list! please bare in mind its 2 am
TZP
They have seemed noticeably more focused on revealing some seer informations than other players. Also their insights have only been marginally helpful and not as meaningful as I've come to expect from town!TZP
Specs
Arguing for seers claiming particular colors is not smart, especially given someone was just eliminated
Oricorio
Usual playstyle for now, but I'm hoping for more in-depth analyses to understand what's going on
BDS
Neutral, posts have mostly been on a meta level for now
N1P2
Please say more!!
Quote from: Oricorio on June 25, 2024, 05:10:15 PMTHC is a strange target for the wolves to arrive at independently. This likely suggests that wolves are cooperating (that, or THC did something like claim seer to both wolves). At least we know that all our votes are worth the same.
I agree it's a strange target. But the wolves already cooperating seems statistically unlikely (how did they find each other). Do you think THC managed to mess with them individually, or do you think they know each others identities? Or both?
Quote from: Oricorio on June 25, 2024, 05:10:15 PMTHC is a strange target for the wolves to arrive at independently. This likely suggests that wolves are cooperating (that, or THC did something like claim seer to both wolves). At least we know that all our votes are worth the same.
Given that there was no public message, I find it unlikely that the wolves cooperated via shot in the dark PMs.
For what it's worth, I received no PMs from THC, so it's not like he claimed to everyone. He may have claimed to a select number of people, but that's an odd play. Back in the Grinch game, he made a PM play claiming something different to everyone alive. However, I got nothing from him N1.
I got nothing either
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 25, 2024, 05:13:46 PMSpecs Arguing for seers claiming particular colors is not smart, especially given someone was just eliminated
Maybe I should clear my stance up a bit.
Right now I'm not in favor of seers claiming a positive result without a color, mainly because it's a safe play against any legitimate counterclaim. If it's a fakeclaim, the real seers will likely assume it's just the other seer claiming.
I'm more open to the idea of seers claiming a positive result WITH a color, for two reasons. 1, if it's a fakeclaim and the real seer is alive, it will likely draw a counterclaim. 2, it reduces things to a 50/50, which isn't the best odds but it's better than nothing.
Xiao, where did I say that I wasn't in favor of seers claiming colors?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 25, 2024, 05:30:32 PMXiao, where did I say that I wasn't in favor of seers claiming colors?
You didn't say that, which is what I called 'not smart'
Claiming a color is putting a target on your back.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 25, 2024, 05:30:32 PM1, if it's a fakeclaim and the real seer is alive, it will likely draw a counterclaim.
However, the catch with this is that a wolf may use it to bait a real seer into identifying themself. Wolf fakeclaims their respective seer, the real seer claims, and now the seer gets burned/chilled.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 25, 2024, 05:04:35 PMwell that's not good...
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 25, 2024, 05:08:58 PMOkay... so THC got chilled and burned last night. And everyone's at full strength voting.
Surprisingly, I think it's a good thing that there was a wolfing instead of vote reduction. Unless THC was a seer, we still have all our resources available to us.
I also think that this was just an interesting coincidence, and not the wolves intentionally teaming up—something like that would be very difficult to accomplish randomly, unless one of the wolves made an "obvious" intentional slip publicly to signal to the other wolf that we're all somehow missing.
The question is, who might independently arrive at the idea of reducing THC's vote? I'm going to be busy with something else in a little bit, but later I'm gonna go back through some of the revival games where THC was wolfed to try and deduce who might already be inclined toward wolfing him.
I'm guessing neither wolf expected the other to go for THC. This wolfing could've accidentally been an information jackpot for us.
Hi! I am here and quickly reading through everything.
This is unlike me but I did forget multiple times I was playing this game (my fault, is not an excuse; especially a "i havent been paying attention so dont count me as sus" excuse)..
It is late where I am, and I work open shift until about 4 hrs before the phase change (ugh). I will do my absolute best to reply throughout the day tomorrow!!
Initial thoughts are yes, be wary of seering claims this early and i believe it highly unlikely, if anything very lucky, that the wolves both found each other AND got THC. Lucky, because like mentioned already, everyone at full vote is an absolute certainty at this point.
So, it's 4-1-1. If we lynch a wolf today, D2 will be 3.5-1, mislynching D2 will make D3 2-1, which is basically LyLo. So, for the best case scenario, we have only one mislynch. Mislynching today would make it 3-1-1, which if wolves don't crossfire is 2-1-1, a very bad situation for town. So, we don't really have any room for error today. If one wolf crossfires it'll be 2.5-1-.5 (1 vote advantage for town) and if they both cross it's 3-.5-.5 (2 vote advantage), but we can't depend on those happening.
Yeah, I received nothing so far. Part of me discussing a w-w alliance earlier was to see if anyone was bold enough to approach me in PMs, but no one took the bait. We probably will need some behind the scenes cooperation to outmaneuver the wolves.
There has to be a reason why THC was double-targeted, and it doesn't seem to have anything to do with their posts in the thread, as it's basically just mechanical stuff that had to be taken back after clarifications from the host. Based on past games, t!THC is mainly a threat to wolves from their alliances with other players (TZP in Grinch and MSF in True Love), so maybe that's part of the reason? Might want to look at TZP and Specs a little closer
So,
- THC was killed N1 in TWG CXV, but that doesn't really count because of the number picking gimmick.
- THC was wolfed in TWG CXVI by Specs, but there's also extenuating circumstances there because of the nature of the assassin game.
- THC was confirmed human in TWG CXVIII and wolfed as a result. Also doesn't tell us anything.
- THC was wolfed N1 in TWG CXIX by TZP and Toby.
End results, not especially conclusive, but based on basic PoE and how few players are in the game (1/3 of the remaining players are wolves), I think it's reasonably likely to guess that there's probably at least one wolf between Specs and TZP. Of course, we're assuming that one or both wolves didn't just pick their targets randomly, which (correct me if I'm wrong), TZP has done for wolfing picks in the past??
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 25, 2024, 08:50:22 PMSurprisingly, I think it's a good thing that there was a wolfing instead of vote reduction.
Well a 1 in 6 chance it was random isn't super reassuring, even if teaming up is more unlikely
Also its funny specs and tzp are on top of my list... is that why BDS and Oricorio are going after them ???
I'm with BDS, I actually think this is an optimal result—completely trustworthy info is a fair trade for a gimmick-free N1 wolfing. (Not so much for THC though. RIP.) I also doubt that the wolves found each other. It's not that it's impossible that the wolves coordinated, it's just that that's a unicorn-rarity play to happen N1, and it doesn't seem like much if any PM communication has happened so far (I personally have not been messaging anyone either).
I disagree that it was likely to be an RNG kill, though. My guess for why it happened: each wolf thought that, because a wolfing couldn't be guaranteed to kill someone, the best course of action was to play mindgames with the voting power and burn/chill someone unexpected. THC, as a player who had barely shown up, would be an ideal candidate to bank a burn/chill and keep the more active players thinking their votes were less powerful than they were.
At first glance Oricorio's math about mislyches checks out to me. Either way, we don't have a whole lot of wiggle room.
Today's lynch doesn't really have any possible curveballs since the seers don't work until N2, but we do know a few basic facts. Everyone has a full vote, and 2/6 of the remaining players are wolves.
The only additional "data" we could gather is if the seers claimed. Obviously this runs the risk of counterclaims and fakeclaims, but in a perfect world, removing them from the pool of votes gives a 2/4 chance of getting a wolf.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 26, 2024, 06:30:13 AMI disagree that it was likely to be an RNG kill, though.
Oh yeah, I doubt it was entirely random, my point was more that the wolves probably (hopefully) don't know who eachother are yet
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 26, 2024, 06:54:43 AMThe only additional "data" we could gather is if the seers claimed. Obviously this runs the risk of counterclaims and fakeclaims, but in a perfect world, removing them from the pool of votes gives a 2/4 chance of getting a wolf.
It doesn't even do that much, since wolves can be seers. I don't think seers should claim unless there's a good reason to (positive result, about to be lynched, etc.) and maybe not even then.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 26, 2024, 03:20:22 AMAlso its funny specs and tzp are on top of my list... is that why BDS and Oricorio are going after them ???
I'm just judging by looking at who might be more likely to pick THC as a wolfing based on wolfings in prior games ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And it's a very loose read regardless.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 26, 2024, 06:30:13 AMI disagree that it was likely to be an RNG kill, though. My guess for why it happened: each wolf thought that, because a wolfing couldn't be guaranteed to kill someone, the best course of action was to play mindgames with the voting power and burn/chill someone unexpected. THC, as a player who had barely shown up, would be an ideal candidate to bank a burn/chill and keep the more active players thinking their votes were less powerful than they were.
That's an interesting point. Do you think they would've picked THC assuming he'd be less likely to be lynched?
I disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances. I vote TZP
24 hours left in Day 1!
Votecount:
TZP: 1 (Xiao)
Due to the lack of voting activity in the thread, I am willing to grant a 24-hour phase extension if a majority of living players agree.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 26, 2024, 03:21:52 PMI disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances. I vote TZP
THC typically starts out inactive (often because he's busy or hasn't realized the game has started yet) then gets more active as the game goes on. It's possible the wolves picked him because they were expecting him to be alive later in the game.
I agree, msf.
Thoughts so far are it's tough to read anyone when all we do is speculate haha.
I don't mind the no non-lynch days because it certainly provides movement through the game, but it really is tough to point a finger even if justto point one.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 26, 2024, 03:21:52 PMI disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances. I vote TZP
Is your vote for the sake of starting a vote count because none of us have voted?
To be frank, I did think TZP's analysis was oddly creatively-specific, but perhaps that's because they have more experience in TWG than I do... Does that warrant a vote already? Not that experience matters all the time, nor do I like to think outside the game (it gets confusing to me), but seeing that BDS posted about previous THC game history, idk.
I agree with the extension. Sorry for the inactivity, I was dealing with a family emergency.
In that case, I can also support an extension.
Extension works for me too
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 26, 2024, 05:42:28 PMIs your vote for the sake of starting a vote count because none of us have voted?
When that I voted, yes.
Who I voted for, no.
Extension is fine with me.
Not that it really matters, but I do
think it's possible that the wolves probably had the same idea- burn/chill someone relatively unexpected.
Xiao's TZP vote makes sense with his suspicion list posted early D1. He was the first to really throw any suspicion anywhere.
After that, Oricorio did say we should look at TZP and myself more closely because of past games involving TZPs alliances. That feels like a bit of a stretch, considering everyone had access to the postgame to know about it.
BDS also said due to PoE, there's a good chance there's a wolf between TZP and myself. Sure, but it's the same probability as anyone else.
It's not quite enough to accuse Oricorio and BDS of bandwagoning though.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 27, 2024, 05:12:41 AMbecause of past games involving TZPs alliances
should read "involving
THCs alliances"
Looks like we already have a majority of players good with an extension, but I'd also support it, esp if a player has a family emergency going on.
Gonna start going through some ISOs in an effort to gin up some discussion.
Day 1 will now end at 8:00:00 PM EDT tomorrow, June 28th, 31 hours from now.
The votecount remains unchanged.
Since the wording in the initial post may be confusing, I also thought I'd create a diagram to more clearly explain how the seering roles are distributed:
(https://i.imgur.com/Q7wGEWf.png)
First the seven roles (Fire Wolf, Ice Wolf, and five Humans) are randomly assigned to the players, and then the process of distributing seer roles (as originally described in the OP) is mathematically equivalent to selecting a green square uniformly at random from this table.
Ngl, that chart made it more confusing to me.
Basically, the fire seer can be anyone but the fire wolf, and the ice seer can be anyone but the ice wolf. The caveat being the same player cannot be both seers. That's it, right?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 27, 2024, 10:19:08 AMNgl, that chart made it more confusing to me.
Basically, the fire seer can be anyone but the fire wolf, and the ice seer can be anyone but the ice wolf. The caveat being the same player cannot be both seers. That's it, right?
Yes, and also it is not possible for both seering roles to go to wolves.
I just made this chart to clarify exact probabilities, since the probabilities of different worlds could be different if I rolled the setup in a different way (e.g. rolling wolf and seer roles at the same time, instead of rolling wolves first and then seers).
Oricorio:
Spoiler
Quote from: Oricorio on June 23, 2024, 07:35:21 PMSo basically, wolves can't die in the night, only humans can. How accurate we'll need to be in our lynches will depend on things like how coordinated the wolves are, but don't expect there to be more than one.
Seers can clear a player from one of the wolf slots, but the utility of it is questionable when there's no way to confirm if a wolf is dead. Seer information would be useful to the wolves as well as it could tell them who to target to advance their wincon more quickly, so be careful about divulging that information.
Pretty standard first game post game flow breakdown. The first paragraph asserts that wolves can't die outside of self-destructing, the second paragraph asserts that seers can clear wolves from the slot they're calibrated with. Honestly in general I think the seer roles are pretty weak this game—if you're the red seer, a red seering could mean red wolf, blue wolf, or human, and a green seering could mean blue wolf or human. I think this is a good observation that if the seers don't coordinate in some way, this gives practically no actionable intel.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 24, 2024, 08:56:26 PMAs I can tell, there are two main strategies the wolves can use: a wolf-wolf alliance and a wolf-Seer "alliance". The first is obvious, the wolves find each other via PM and coordinate their actions, leaving town little recourse but to act completely as a unit with even one defection potentially making the game unwinnable. Of course, that strategy would require a lot of risk for the wolves to initiate, so it's more likely we'll see the second strategy. As the seers are only a threat to one wolf each, it's advantageous for a wolf to find the seer that isn't a threat to them and use their results to control the narrative. In order to counter such a strategy, the two Seers need to be 100% coordinated. Of course, a wolf can be the seer, which carries its own problems.
Worst-case scenario for town going into D1 is the wolves converge on one player, leaving us at 4-1-1. If town mislynches, there aren't many scenarios where town can still win unless the wolves crossfire. But I find that scenario somewhat unlikely, so let's assume that we will have three townies with a full vote, one or two with a half vote, and one of the wolves possibly having a half vote. In that case, as long as the wolves aren't coordinating behind the scenes a mislynch probably would be allowed. Still, again I would be a little careful about lynching someone based on seer results, it's a 50-50 at best and potentially even further stacked in wolves' favor as they can paint the person they think is most likely to be seer'd, something that I notably couldn't do in the Grinch game.
I'm a little unclear in this scenario what a wolf-seer alliance would look like, since it's not really an alliance at all. In what context would a seer privately be sharing color findings, and how would a wolf be able to control that narrative?
Also, lays the foundations of doubt about seer findings.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 25, 2024, 05:10:15 PMTHC is a strange target for the wolves to arrive at independently. This likely suggests that wolves are cooperating (that, or THC did something like claim seer to both wolves). At least we know that all our votes are worth the same.
Oricorio is notably the only player to interpret the N1 as evidence of wolf coordination. Do you stand by this guess, as opposed to "it happened as a coincidence" or "it happened as an uncoordinated emergent strategy"?
Quote from: Oricorio on June 25, 2024, 10:31:29 PMSo, it's 4-1-1. If we lynch a wolf today, D2 will be 3.5-1, mislynching D2 will make D3 2-1, which is basically LyLo. So, for the best case scenario, we have only one mislynch. Mislynching today would make it 3-1-1, which if wolves don't crossfire is 2-1-1, a very bad situation for town. So, we don't really have any room for error today. If one wolf crossfires it'll be 2.5-1-.5 (1 vote advantage for town) and if they both cross it's 3-.5-.5 (2 vote advantage), but we can't depend on those happening.
Yeah, I received nothing so far. Part of me discussing a w-w alliance earlier was to see if anyone was bold enough to approach me in PMs, but no one took the bait. We probably will need some behind the scenes cooperation to outmaneuver the wolves.
There has to be a reason why THC was double-targeted, and it doesn't seem to have anything to do with their posts in the thread, as it's basically just mechanical stuff that had to be taken back after clarifications from the host. Based on past games, t!THC is mainly a threat to wolves from their alliances with other players (TZP in Grinch and MSF in True Love), so maybe that's part of the reason? Might want to look at TZP and Specs a little closer
More gamestate breakdown, and then an accusation of me and Specs (on the basis of us being wolves in True Love?). This feels extremely tenuous to me—the logic is THC is at his strongest when he's in an alliance with other players, so look for the wolves in the games where he did that, and that makes them likely to be wolves in this game as well?
This reads to me like Oricorio is surprised by the THC wolfing and coming up blank when trying to make sense of it. I think Oricorio is maybe the most aggressive player in this lobby, this doesn't read like a high conviction suspicion.
More to come throughout the day, but Oricorio feel free to respond to anything I've said here
Right now, the only two players I feel comfortable voting for are Specs and Oricorio. I'm hoping to hear more from both Oricorio and N1P2 as well before I place my vote.
Xiao's behavior feels pretty standard so far, and I think TZP's posts give enough of a human lean (actually feel solve-y but not domineering of the conversation) to where I don't want to lynch him today.
I'll be so so honest, i tend to take a passenger seat role in these games! I think i've even mentioned that before.
The amount of deep dive y'all do is way beyond my mental capacity, but i do love joining along for the ride.
That being said, i
will speak up if i have the right reason to do so! Maybe my flaw is I wait too long, because i want what i have to say to have substance and not just word vomit.
I'll go down the list of peeps and give my read on them, based solely on "listening" to everyone talk. I also have neither sent nor received any PM's.
Oricorio: I'm in agreement of the phrasing used by TZP,
"I think Oricorio is maybe the most aggressive player in this lobby[...]". Perhaps trying to just snuff out information because they have seering power?
BDS: What I personally define as typical responsive behavior from what I remember from other games.
Specs: No true read, but it seems to have a bigger impact on other players here.
It appears that, for either some people here or in this game in general, getting a "town" read typically is given when giving heavy analysis and explanation into the social aspect of the game. As mentioned before, I lack this typically and perhaps that has always been my greatest weakness.
That being said, I will continue with the only shred of "something doesnt feel right" in my analysis.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 26, 2024, 06:30:13 AMI disagree that it was likely to be an RNG kill, though. My guess for why it happened: each wolf thought that, because a wolfing couldn't be guaranteed to kill someone, the best course of action was to play mindgames with the voting power and burn/chill someone unexpected. THC, as a player who had barely shown up, would be an ideal candidate to bank a burn/chill and keep the more active players thinking their votes were less powerful than they were.
TZP: It's only one paragraph, but it still gives me a weird feeling of how off-brand the decision may be from the wolves' perspective. It's only a hunch and I dont have much else. I appreciate the dive on Ori as it has assisted in forming my own opinion on them.
Xiao: Human lean; appreciate the effort in contributing to the game in a timely manner with the only vote so far, and the respect to say that it was primarily timing that it happened not necessarily the target.
I should specify, i dont believe that me posting analysis necessarily clears me as town, but rather it has been an observation that others expect it in some way to which it is earned through similar behavior.
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 27, 2024, 02:41:49 PMI'll be so so honest, i tend to take a passenger seat role in these games! I think i've even mentioned that before.
The amount of deep dive y'all do is way beyond my mental capacity, but i do love joining along for the ride.
Relatable, there's often too many words...
Though its ironic that we two are the only ones who've done a proper tierlist so far
Since I started playing NSM TWG, there has been a trend of mislynches based on false suspicions. I think it's gotten better recently though. However, given there were no powers N1, we don't really have any factual evidence to act upon today.
Xiao: I still disagree with your take on me thinking that a seer should claim with color after a hit is a bad idea, mainly because by D2, the game may already be approaching the end. Agree to disagree, I guess. Your vote on TZP falls in line with your early suspicion list, and you did call out BDS and Oricorio for conveniently also being suspicious of the same people.
TZP: People are getting onto you for your opinions about the double THC wolfing. I don't find your take on it particularly wolfy, just more so an alternate explanation of what happened. I'm not sure how your take would even be something a wolf would say/push. I don't love playing the meta game, but you do seem slightly more active than you usual are.
Oricorio: I really don't love the accusation of TZP and myself based on previous THC alliances. Feels like a weak grasp at straws. That being said, your early posts, while fairly mechanical in nature, do seem town-oriented.
BDS: Honestly not a lot of reads here from me. Curious why Oricorio moved up on his suspicion list.
N1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.
N1P2 for now. Going to reread the discussion about THCs wolfing in the morning.
BDS:
Spoiler
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 23, 2024, 05:13:30 PMAfter the assassin game, it'll definitely be interesting to see another game where the wolves are (kinda) pitted against each other.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 23, 2024, 05:14:59 PMThis goes without saying, but we definitely have to be more careful and be sure that we're all on the same page when it comes to the lynch. With vote manipulation shenanigans going on we could very well end up in a situation where the person the majority of people are voting for isn't the person who ends up getting lynched.
Standard senior player opener re: general town strategy. Not alignment indicative in either direction.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 24, 2024, 12:19:31 PMSo we're back at square one :P
I imagine that if one of the wolves got a seer power and seers someone the opposite color, they might be more inclined to try to leak the knowledge publicly, but otherwise I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for a human seer to reveal their seering, especially if the person they seered is already suspected. It could very well be the deciding factor toward lynching someone versus not.
More insightful post about what a seerwolf strategy might be and how it might dovetail with human strategy depending on game state. I agree that seer results could prove useful but that revealing them is somewhat situation-dependent.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 25, 2024, 11:47:08 AMIf I'm understanding things correctly, you'd have to be double seered green to be confirmed human. Considering that, I think there's still a potential reason to reveal colors.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 25, 2024, 11:49:13 AMBy "double seered," I mean both seers would have to seer you at the same time. I think it's a viable strategy, albeit risky, to try and get the seers to coordinate seerings—it just depends on whether or not the wolves themselves are able to coordinate rather than fully playing against each other, or whether we even wanna take that risk in the first place or just leave the seers to their own devices.
I think this post reads like standard human!BDS to me--it's pretty common for him to float best-case-scenario strategies in the early game and use that to lead discussion.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 25, 2024, 08:50:22 PMSurprisingly, I think it's a good thing that there was a wolfing instead of vote reduction. Unless THC was a seer, we still have all our resources available to us.
I also think that this was just an interesting coincidence, and not the wolves intentionally teaming up—something like that would be very difficult to accomplish randomly, unless one of the wolves made an "obvious" intentional slip publicly to signal to the other wolf that we're all somehow missing.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 25, 2024, 08:52:22 PMThe question is, who might independently arrive at the idea of reducing THC's vote? I'm going to be busy with something else in a little bit, but later I'm gonna go back through some of the revival games where THC was wolfed to try and deduce who might already be inclined toward wolfing him.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 25, 2024, 08:53:27 PMI'm guessing neither wolf expected the other to go for THC. This wolfing could've accidentally been an information jackpot for us.
It's a somewhat bold claim to say, in such a small game, that losing a human is a more than fair trade for a more informed D1. As I've already said, I agree with BDS on this, but as far as ISO analysis goes, I don't know if a wolf, surprised by the THC kill would say this--he might rather wait to gauge public feeling before opining. I think this string of posts makes BDS my strongest human lean right now.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 25, 2024, 11:59:17 PMSo,
- THC was killed N1 in TWG CXV, but that doesn't really count because of the number picking gimmick.
- THC was wolfed in TWG CXVI by Specs, but there's also extenuating circumstances there because of the nature of the assassin game.
- THC was confirmed human in TWG CXVIII and wolfed as a result. Also doesn't tell us anything.
- THC was wolfed N1 in TWG CXIX by TZP and Toby.
End results, not especially conclusive, but based on basic PoE and how few players are in the game (1/3 of the remaining players are wolves), I think it's reasonably likely to guess that there's probably at least one wolf between Specs and TZP. Of course, we're assuming that one or both wolves didn't just pick their targets randomly, which (correct me if I'm wrong), TZP has done for wolfing picks in the past??
This doesn't make sense to me, though. I don't think I've ever before heard the logic of "Player X wolfed player Y in a previous game so he's likely to do that again." Process of elimination doesn't really make sense in this context?
Also fyi, I used random.org for the first wolfing in the first revival game sort of on a whim since it had been several years since I played, and I have not used it since.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 26, 2024, 02:23:41 PMI'm just judging by looking at who might be more likely to pick THC as a wolfing based on wolfings in prior games ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And it's a very loose read regardless.
That's an interesting point. Do you think they would've picked THC assuming he'd be less likely to be lynched?
I missed this earlier, sorry to ignore. I think this is one plausible reason for sure, but I think that (if we're continuing with the assumption that the goal of this wolfing was to disguise the vote manipulation rather than to kill a player immediately) sowing confusion in the voting during the day was probably the primary draw, since it can be *really* tough to predict who's going to get lynched--how many games in the last year have had day phases where someone gets offed and it's a complete surprise because it happened in the last 20 minutes of the phase? I don't mean this in a negative way at all, but it would be consistent with things you and Oricorio have said in the past to both assume that you were the target of a halved vote, and it's possible a wolf could have picked THC instead to keep everyone on their toes.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 27, 2024, 01:07:52 PMRight now, the only two players I feel comfortable voting for are Specs and Oricorio. I'm hoping to hear more from both Oricorio and N1P2 as well before I place my vote.
Xiao's behavior feels pretty standard so far, and I think TZP's posts give enough of a human lean (actually feel solve-y but not domineering of the conversation) to where I don't want to lynch him today.
Can you say more about Specs and Oricorio? I actually disagree that Xiao's behavior has been standard (first player to clock a vote? I'll get to that in a later post) and I'm curious why the other two are higher up your list.
Also, I reread my previous post and wanted to clarify my last point. Oricorio is an aggressive player who typically makes airtight cases. I don't think that coming up blank and gesturing weakly at me and Specs reads like a wolf trying to seed a discussion at all—more like a human without strong feelings who nevertheless wants to opine a little bit.
THC:
Spoiler
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on June 25, 2024, 10:18:42 AMSorry, I spent all day yesterday cleaning out my room, this is the first chance I've even had to get on the forums since the game started.
I did want to clarify with @mastersuperfan, does the Sear see the Ice Wolf as green (and vice-versa with the Icier and Fire Wolf)? The wording has me a little confused. I have some thoughts on the seer situation, but it really depends on this.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on June 25, 2024, 10:31:47 AMHm... Sounds like the seer results wouldn't be super useful then. I can only think of one way that would have a highly increased chance, though not 100%, of finding a wolf, and it would still require a lot of luck. I won't say it here just because bringing attention to it could give the wolves the easy answer to combatting it. I think the fact that it takes both wolves to kill someone is definitely going to our benefit here, as it will help elongate the game so we can get more info.
I wanted to do a post on THC as well even though he's guaranteed human, because we've been talking like he was probably wolfed because he was the last player to the game/because he'd be a sleeper pick for vote halving, but his two posts while he was alive are thoughtful. It sounds like he had an idea that he might have been willing to go public with once the seer results had been received and N2 was over--this could totally be why he was targeted as well.
Also he makes a good point that despite the small size, the game could last a while, since when one wolf is dead, any human at full health can't be killed during the night at all (!)
I hope there will be more chatter today because tomorrow I will be at work when the day shift changes. I will likely pick a vote for someone tonight in the likely event I forget to post in time tomorrow.
Interested to hear more of your analysis, TZP.
Also Specs, if you post again in the morning.
Votecount:
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- N1P2: 1 (Specs)
24 hours left in Day 1, for real this time!
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 27, 2024, 03:24:16 PMBDS: Honestly not a lot of reads here from me. Curious why Oricorio moved up on his suspicion list.
It's more process of elimination than strictly suspicion on Oricorio. As I touched at, I feel like Xiao and TZP are more on the human end of things, N1P2's more of a blank, and I already mentioned why I have my eye on you.
QuoteN1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.
Interesting point as well. I did find it a bit weird how he popped in right after I brought up wanting to hear more from him, but I just chalked it up to him feeling more comfortable in a lurking role than someone making wallposts all the time. In other words, he's been around this whole time but unsure about how to step in.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 27, 2024, 03:27:18 PMIt's a somewhat bold claim to say, in such a small game, that losing a human is a more than fair trade for a more informed D1.
To build on this mention, I feel like a wolf would likely prefer to have two half-votes running around, even if they don't know who one of those was.
QuoteThis doesn't make sense to me, though. I don't think I've ever before heard the logic of "Player X wolfed player Y in a previous game so he's likely to do that again." Process of elimination doesn't really make sense in this context?
Fair, and like it said it was a weak thread, but in a game like this where we don't have a lot to work with I figured it didn't hurt to give it a look and see if it dredged up any results. In the past, at least pre-revival, I feel like similar logic has been employed before (e.g. "player X as a wolf might be more likely to wolf player Y because player Y is good at picking up on wolf!player X"), but I may just be misremembering.
QuoteAlso fyi, I used random.org for the first wolfing in the first revival game sort of on a whim since it had been several years since I played, and I have not used it since.
Good to know :P
QuoteI missed this earlier, sorry to ignore. I think this is one plausible reason for sure, but I think that (if we're continuing with the assumption that the goal of this wolfing was to disguise the vote manipulation rather than to kill a player immediately) sowing confusion in the voting during the day was probably the primary draw, since it can be *really* tough to predict who's going to get lynched--how many games in the last year have had day phases where someone gets offed and it's a complete surprise because it happened in the last 20 minutes of the phase? I don't mean this in a negative way at all, but it would be consistent with things you and Oricorio have said in the past to both assume that you were the target of a halved vote, and it's possible a wolf could have picked THC instead to keep everyone on their toes.
The key thing to remember is that it only takes one wolf having that logic for THC to have died; the other wolf could entirely have had a different set of logic for picking THC. I like the reasoning though.
QuoteCan you say more about Specs and Oricorio? I actually disagree that Xiao's behavior has been standard (first player to clock a vote? I'll get to that in a later post) and I'm curious why the other two are higher up your list.
Already touched on above, especially re:Oricorio, but between you and Specs (the two weak threads I identified earlier) I feel like you've been more human of the two. Definitely interested to see what you have to say about Xiao though, and we'll see if it changes my mind at all.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 27, 2024, 03:27:18 PMAlso, I reread my previous post and wanted to clarify my last point. Oricorio is an aggressive player who typically makes airtight cases. I don't think that coming up blank and gesturing weakly at me and Specs reads like a wolf trying to seed a discussion at all—more like a human without strong feelings who nevertheless wants to opine a little bit.
My great grandmother had a seizure shortly after this game started; she's been in the hospital for the past couple of days. She'll likely be alright but the situation is still stressful, hence why it's been difficult for me to focus on this game.
I'll clarify a couple of my points: it is unlikely that the targeting of THC was a random decision, and since we have information like that we should take advantage. Little had happened by that point, it's not as if THC had pushed major suspicions that would give people an incentive to off him, so it's mainly past games that we have to go off of. We do have a bit more to work with now in terms of reads, but I don't think you can particularly fault me for an uncofident case when we had little to work with.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 27, 2024, 11:49:04 PMMy great grandmother had a seizure shortly after this game started; she's been in the hospital for the past couple of days. She'll likely be alright but the situation is still stressful, hence why it's been difficult for me to focus on this game.
I hope she will be okay and you can take the time you need :)
Let's look over some of the readslists we have gotten:
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 25, 2024, 05:13:46 PMtime to make a list! please bare in mind its 2 am
TZP
They have seemed noticeably more focused on revealing some seer informations than other players. Also their insights have only been marginally helpful and not as meaningful as I've come to expect from town!TZP
Specs
Arguing for seers claiming particular colors is not smart, especially given someone was just eliminated
Oricorio
Usual playstyle for now, but I'm hoping for more in-depth analyses to understand what's going on
BDS
Neutral, posts have mostly been on a meta level for now
N1P2
Please say more!!
Being the first, they get some points for proactivity, although I'm not sure how much that matters for what is effectively a solo wolf game. I'm pretty sure that Xiao called me out for supposedly sheeping their two wolfreads, but is this really a wolfread on Specs? It was written when there was little to go off of, so it falls into the "making content for the sake of making content" trap; not always a wolfy thing but "Please say more!!" is the definition of an empty "read"
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 27, 2024, 02:41:49 PMI'll be so so honest, i tend to take a passenger seat role in these games! I think i've even mentioned that before.
The amount of deep dive y'all do is way beyond my mental capacity, but i do love joining along for the ride.
That being said, i will speak up if i have the right reason to do so! Maybe my flaw is I wait too long, because i want what i have to say to have substance and not just word vomit.
I'll go down the list of peeps and give my read on them, based solely on "listening" to everyone talk. I also have neither sent nor received any PM's.
Oricorio: I'm in agreement of the phrasing used by TZP, "I think Oricorio is maybe the most aggressive player in this lobby[...]". Perhaps trying to just snuff out information because they have seering power?
BDS: What I personally define as typical responsive behavior from what I remember from other games.
Specs: No true read, but it seems to have a bigger impact on other players here.
It appears that, for either some people here or in this game in general, getting a "town" read typically is given when giving heavy analysis and explanation into the social aspect of the game. As mentioned before, I lack this typically and perhaps that has always been my greatest weakness.
That being said, I will continue with the only shred of "something doesnt feel right" in my analysis.
TZP: It's only one paragraph, but it still gives me a weird feeling of how off-brand the decision may be from the wolves' perspective. It's only a hunch and I dont have much else. I appreciate the dive on Ori as it has assisted in forming my own opinion on them.
Xiao: Human lean; appreciate the effort in contributing to the game in a timely manner with the only vote so far, and the respect to say that it was primarily timing that it happened not necessarily the target.
TZP already seems to be a consensus wolf read; given that there are no partnered wolves, LHF seems an inadequate defense in this situation. BDS and Specs reads seem hedgy. Seems to townread Xiao for being the one to push the game forward, which I would get in another game but I don't see why wolves wouldn't want to push the game forward here.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 27, 2024, 03:24:16 PMSince I started playing NSM TWG, there has been a trend of mislynches based on false suspicions. I think it's gotten better recently though. However, given there were no powers N1, we don't really have any factual evidence to act upon today.
Xiao: I still disagree with your take on me thinking that a seer should claim with color after a hit is a bad idea, mainly because by D2, the game may already be approaching the end. Agree to disagree, I guess. Your vote on TZP falls in line with your early suspicion list, and you did call out BDS and Oricorio for conveniently also being suspicious of the same people.
TZP: People are getting onto you for your opinions about the double THC wolfing. I don't find your take on it particularly wolfy, just more so an alternate explanation of what happened. I'm not sure how your take would even be something a wolf would say/push. I don't love playing the meta game, but you do seem slightly more active than you usual are.
Oricorio: I really don't love the accusation of TZP and myself based on previous THC alliances. Feels like a weak grasp at straws. That being said, your early posts, while fairly mechanical in nature, do seem town-oriented.
BDS: Honestly not a lot of reads here from me. Curious why Oricorio moved up on his suspicion list.
N1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.
N1P2 for now. Going to reread the discussion about THCs wolfing in the morning.
Another non-read of BDS, hedgy on Xiao and TZP. Push on N1P1 is a little weak, calling it "Just speculation". The read on me is a bit of a hedge as well, calling me town but setting it up in such a way that the read can be easily flipped on a dime. This whole thing feels a bit contrived, so
SpecsFlyer17
It's interesting that everyone is hedging on BDS; for better or worse people usually have strong opinions on his alignment. His posts here haven't really stood out to me either.
Oricorio, take the time you need! Hope everything does end up okay.
Can you also explain what LHF is?
Quote from: Oricorio on June 27, 2024, 11:49:04 PMMy great grandmother had a seizure shortly after this game started; she's been in the hospital for the past couple of days. She'll likely be alright but the situation is still stressful, hence why it's been difficult for me to focus on this game.
Sorry to hear that, and hope you and your great grandmother are doing okay :< If you'd like more time in the phase yet, just let me know and I think everyone else would understand.
Votecount:- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- N1P2: 1 (Specs)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
Don't have time to respond mroe thoughtfully yet to game stuff yet, but Oricorio, very sorry to hear about your great-grandmother's seizure and I hope she bounces back quickly
I'm not sure if it's explicitly been said, but it's ideal for the wolves to get someone lynched that hasn't been burned or chilled. Lynching someone with a full vote is more beneficial to a wolf than .5 votes. From that, I think it's reasonable to assume that the wolves went after THC with hopes that he would not be lynched D1.
Looking back on previous games,
Revival: Hosted
Numbers: Wolfed
Assassin: Wolfed
Lantern: Lynched (albeit via Lylo wolf rush)
TTT: Wolfed
Luigi: Wolfed
Grinch: Survived
True Love: Survived
RPS: Vigi'd
THC has only been lynched once since the revival, and that was via a lylo wolf rush with 3 wolves still in the game.
Is that relevant? Perhaps at least one of the wolves noticed this trend and went with someone less likely to be lynched. If successful, this would have given that wolf someone with .5 votes going into N2.
Now, who would've noticed that? BDS clearly did some research (posted after the N1 concluded), but he took it the opposite direction: what games has THC been wolfed and by whom? Oricorio also alluded to previous game behavior, but talking about THCs alliances. I suppose wolf!BDS fits this theory the best, but anyone could've looked up the game history. BDS, TZP, Xiao, and myself (minus one game) have played since the revival, so it would've been freshest in our minds.
A wolf may also have taken a simpler approach going for the same result: wolf someone somewhat inactive, or at least not making splashes that could be dissected. THC actually had some solid posts N1. On the other hand, N1P2 only had an off-topic fun opening post N1. N1P2 would have been the easy target for this theory, but he was spared. Therefore, I think wolf!N1P2 fits this theory the best- wolfing the most inactive player in hopes that they won't be lynched D1.
Also Oricorio, wishing your great-grandmother, family, and you best! Hope she can make a full recovery!
A little less than 7 hours left in D1!A reminder that phantoms are ON, so make sure you place your votes!
Quote from: mastersuperfan on June 28, 2024, 05:50:39 AMVotecount:
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- N1P2: 1 (Specs)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
Votecount remains unchanged.
You flatter me to think that I would take the extra time to do all that research prior to this game to come to some sort of conclusion like that haha.
Alas, i am not that well coordinated and am just trying to figure this out like the rest of you, only from a perspective of much inactivity between games.
If anything, I find it rather refreshing!
(But then i eventually get a target on my back because of it)
I will have to stick with my gut here and place a vote for TZP.
Aside from Ori, it's the only suspicion I have, including the play style dives into performance. I don't think at this moment any other person is striking much more of a flag, but anything can happen in 6 hours I suppose. Specs, your analysis is good, but idk what else I can say other than what I already have. Perhaps BDS is sliding too comfortably under everyone's radars?
I will do my best to check in before day change on my break at work. If anything further develops I will consider changing based on my previous analysis.
Votecount:
- TZP: 2 (Xiao, N1P2)
- N1P2: 1 (Specs)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
Specs:
Spoiler
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 24, 2024, 06:11:29 AMSo the wolves can't kill each other, but they can have their vote cut in half.
I agree that the value of a seer result is not as strong in this game, especially as the game progresses with more and more players being burned/chilled as the game progresses. Add that to the temporary paintings on N2 onward, and there's a good possibility that most of the field will be colored something by N2. The probability of lynching a human as a result of a positive seering goes up as the game progresses.
Even D1, a positive seer result is only a 50/50 of being the wolf, as both the wolf and the N1 permanent chill/burn will be colored.
If a seer receives a positive result tonight, revealing it and lynching that player yields the best probability of lynching a wolf via seering result all game, but it will put a target on their backs for being burned/chilled later.
Misunderstands the rules.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 24, 2024, 01:26:18 PMSince the painting each night (starting N2) is temporary, any positive seer result is a 50/50 wolf. It also proves the respective wolf is still alive, as the wolf would have had to been alive that night to paint someone.
Is it worth seer claiming and lynching the result based on a 50/50? Probably depends on the circumstances, but having someone with a 50% chance of being a wolf does seem powerful.
Understands the rules. Good observation about even a false positive meaning that the wolf who did it is still out there.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 25, 2024, 02:07:52 PMMy issue what that is it makes the seer role way easier to fake. If a wolf (or even a human) fakeclaims a vanilla seer, both seers can chalk it up to it being the other seer.
If someone fakeclaims a color seer, the real seer will know that it's fake.
Here Specs is the first player to respond to my suggestion that the seers claim defensively. I understand the fear that it leaves the door open to undetected counterclaims, but Specs didn't really respond to the main benefit of this plan, which is that wolves might choose to leave a seer looking for their opponent wolf alive. Given that wolves can be seers, and since any seer result can be waved away as a result of painting, I don't really see fake counterclaims being a huge problem?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 25, 2024, 05:16:39 PMGiven that there was no public message, I find it unlikely that the wolves cooperated via shot in the dark PMs.
For what it's worth, I received no PMs from THC, so it's not like he claimed to everyone. He may have claimed to a select number of people, but that's an odd play. Back in the Grinch game, he made a PM play claiming something different to everyone alive. However, I got nothing from him N1.
Specs is the first player to say there's no shot THC was tag-teamed
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 25, 2024, 05:30:32 PMMaybe I should clear my stance up a bit.
Right now I'm not in favor of seers claiming a positive result without a color, mainly because it's a safe play against any legitimate counterclaim. If it's a fakeclaim, the real seers will likely assume it's just the other seer claiming.
I'm more open to the idea of seers claiming a positive result WITH a color, for two reasons. 1, if it's a fakeclaim and the real seer is alive, it will likely draw a counterclaim. 2, it reduces things to a 50/50, which isn't the best odds but it's better than nothing.
Xiao, where did I say that I wasn't in favor of seers claiming colors?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 25, 2024, 05:34:46 PMHowever, the catch with this is that a wolf may use it to bait a real seer into identifying themself. Wolf fakeclaims their respective seer, the real seer claims, and now the seer gets burned/chilled.
Maybe I'm misreading you here, but isn't this second quote making my point for me? A specifically aligned seer claim could be a seer saying they found a wolf...or it could be a wolf luring a seer out? I don't really see why you're still disagreeing with me on this if you feel this way.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 26, 2024, 06:54:43 AMAt first glance Oricorio's math about mislyches checks out to me. Either way, we don't have a whole lot of wiggle room.
Today's lynch doesn't really have any possible curveballs since the seers don't work until N2, but we do know a few basic facts. Everyone has a full vote, and 2/6 of the remaining players are wolves.
The only additional "data" we could gather is if the seers claimed. Obviously this runs the risk of counterclaims and fakeclaims, but in a perfect world, removing them from the pool of votes gives a 2/4 chance of getting a wolf.
When I first saw this post I just responded to it by correcting Specs' math, but as I've thought more about it it seems a little suspect to me. We'd already discussed the fact that wolves can be seers multiple times at this point in the game. I don't know if I buy that Specs was still unaware of that here—this post reads more like an attempt to lay down a baseline assumption that wolves can't be seers. It could totally be a mistake as a human, but if Specs is a wolf I'd think it's probable he rolled a Seer role and is playing dumb about it.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 27, 2024, 05:12:41 AMXiao's TZP vote makes sense with his suspicion list posted early D1. He was the first to really throw any suspicion anywhere.
After that, Oricorio did say we should look at TZP and myself more closely because of past games involving TZPs alliances. That feels like a bit of a stretch, considering everyone had access to the postgame to know about it.
BDS also said due to PoE, there's a good chance there's a wolf between TZP and myself. Sure, but it's the same probability as anyone else.
It's not quite enough to accuse Oricorio and BDS of bandwagoning though.
I agree with Specs' take here, that the reads on him and me as suspect because we've killed THC before don't really hold water, and I agree also that BDS and Oricorio aren't trying to hamhandedly lead a mislynch on that argument's basis.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 27, 2024, 10:19:08 AMNgl, that chart made it more confusing to me.
Basically, the fire seer can be anyone but the fire wolf, and the ice seer can be anyone but the ice wolf. The caveat being the same player cannot be both seers. That's it, right?
More confusion about how seer roles are distributed?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 27, 2024, 03:24:16 PMSince I started playing NSM TWG, there has been a trend of mislynches based on false suspicions. I think it's gotten better recently though. However, given there were no powers N1, we don't really have any factual evidence to act upon today.
Xiao: I still disagree with your take on me thinking that a seer should claim with color after a hit is a bad idea, mainly because by D2, the game may already be approaching the end. Agree to disagree, I guess. Your vote on TZP falls in line with your early suspicion list, and you did call out BDS and Oricorio for conveniently also being suspicious of the same people.
TZP: People are getting onto you for your opinions about the double THC wolfing. I don't find your take on it particularly wolfy, just more so an alternate explanation of what happened. I'm not sure how your take would even be something a wolf would say/push. I don't love playing the meta game, but you do seem slightly more active than you usual are.
Oricorio: I really don't love the accusation of TZP and myself based on previous THC alliances. Feels like a weak grasp at straws. That being said, your early posts, while fairly mechanical in nature, do seem town-oriented.
BDS: Honestly not a lot of reads here from me. Curious why Oricorio moved up on his suspicion list.
N1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.
N1P2 for now. Going to reread the discussion about THCs wolfing in the morning.
Suspicion list that hedges on absolutely everyone
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 28, 2024, 06:47:46 AMI'm not sure if it's explicitly been said, but it's ideal for the wolves to get someone lynched that hasn't been burned or chilled. Lynching someone with a full vote is more beneficial to a wolf than .5 votes. From that, I think it's reasonable to assume that the wolves went after THC with hopes that he would not be lynched D1.
Looking back on previous games,
Revival: Hosted
Numbers: Wolfed
Assassin: Wolfed
Lantern: Lynched (albeit via Lylo wolf rush)
TTT: Wolfed
Luigi: Wolfed
Grinch: Survived
True Love: Survived
RPS: Vigi'd
THC has only been lynched once since the revival, and that was via a lylo wolf rush with 3 wolves still in the game.
Is that relevant? Perhaps at least one of the wolves noticed this trend and went with someone less likely to be lynched. If successful, this would have given that wolf someone with .5 votes going into N2.
Now, who would've noticed that? BDS clearly did some research (posted after the N1 concluded), but he took it the opposite direction: what games has THC been wolfed and by whom? Oricorio also alluded to previous game behavior, but talking about THCs alliances. I suppose wolf!BDS fits this theory the best, but anyone could've looked up the game history. BDS, TZP, Xiao, and myself (minus one game) have played since the revival, so it would've been freshest in our minds.
A wolf may also have taken a simpler approach going for the same result: wolf someone somewhat inactive, or at least not making splashes that could be dissected. THC actually had some solid posts N1. On the other hand, N1P2 only had an off-topic fun opening post N1. N1P2 would have been the easy target for this theory, but he was spared. Therefore, I think wolf!N1P2 fits this theory the best- wolfing the most inactive player in hopes that they won't be lynched D1.
I like this thinking more than the last couple of posts. When I was thinking about why THC would have been wolfed N1, I initially thought "yeah they probably just went for an inactive, so either THC or N1P2 could have been hit and it just happened that it was THC." But that's not quite right, because not only could N1P2 be one of the wolves that hit him, he was much less dialed into strategizing than THC was. Regarding the wolf-to-avoid-lynch-candidates strategy, that hadn't occurred to me either, and it's a thoughtful, out-of-the-box interpretation that to me is the most human thing Specs has posted thus far.
Xiao:
Spoiler
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 24, 2024, 01:47:23 AMAlso, red or blue seerings are more likely than not to still be humans
Is this because you thought that chilling/burning changed player color?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 24, 2024, 11:39:36 PMBut it's not advantageous for the seer. Maybe we can make a 'rule' to not agree on seer stuff in groups smaller than three?
Helpful suggestion to avoid infoleaks
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 25, 2024, 05:00:09 PMI feel like that could still make the seers an unwanted target, is it better for the wolves to just target anyone who outs themselselves?
All of these early game Xiaoposts read to me like a human trying to be thoughtfully helpful.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 25, 2024, 05:13:46 PMtime to make a list! please bare in mind its 2 am
TZP
They have seemed noticeably more focused on revealing some seer informations than other players. Also their insights have only been marginally helpful and not as meaningful as I've come to expect from town!TZP
Specs
Arguing for seers claiming particular colors is not smart, especially given someone was just eliminated
Oricorio
Usual playstyle for now, but I'm hoping for more in-depth analyses to understand what's going on
BDS
Neutral, posts have mostly been on a meta level for now
N1P2
Please say more!!
As I alluded to in my BDS ISO breakdown, I'm not used to you making reads early on. Placing me at the top of you list early on in the day phase and then being the first player to cast a vote is somewhat out of step with the Xiao I've played with. That said, I remember you expressing frustration in multiple previous games that you felt like no matter what you did, it was suspicious--damned if you do, damned if you don't. And I know you've also taken a break from the past few games, maybe to come back fresh. So I want to ask you, in response to that, is this different playstyle I'm picking up on a conscious effort to change how you come across/read others/make pushes?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 25, 2024, 05:16:06 PMI agree it's a strange target. But the wolves already cooperating seems statistically unlikely (how did they find each other). Do you think THC managed to mess with them individually, or do you think they know each others identities? Or both?
Joins the consensus that however unlikely it is that both wolves picked THC independently, it's more unlikely that they found and decided to trust each other in the first phase.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 25, 2024, 05:32:42 PMYou didn't say that, which is what I called 'not smart'
Claiming a color is putting a target on your back.
You disagree with Specs--to be clear, does that mean you're agreeing with me?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 26, 2024, 03:20:22 AMAlso its funny specs and tzp are on top of my list... is that why BDS and Oricorio are going after them ???
Redirection from top two suspicions to two other players. Willingness to avoid tunneling feels like human behavior, unconcerned with making a completely airtight impression.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 26, 2024, 03:21:52 PMI disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances. I vote TZP
Votes for me based on (I think) my guess that the wolves might have been trying to disguise the halved votes by placing them on unexpected players. I'm confused why though--you say here "I don't think it makes sense for the wolves to target the less active towns", but that's exactly what happened. I didn't say that that's probably what would happen, future tense--I said, given that this *already* happened, this is what suggests itself to me as a plausible reason why it might have happened.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 27, 2024, 11:49:55 PMThis seems to make sense, thanks for writing
Agrees with my BDS human read without elaboration
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 28, 2024, 11:47:32 AMMaybe I'm misreading you here, but isn't this second quote making my point for me? A specifically aligned seer claim could be a seer saying they found a wolf...or it could be a wolf luring a seer out? I don't really see why you're still disagreeing with me on this if you feel this way.
Those two posts wree me going through the pros and cons of a seer specifying color on a claim/hit. Yes, the second quote does explain a drawback to the pro-color claim. Tbh, I'm going to need to think some more about the benefits and drawbacks of a seer claiming with/without color.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 28, 2024, 11:47:32 AMI don't know if I buy that Specs was still unaware of that here—this post reads more like an attempt to lay down a baseline assumption that wolves can't be seers. It could totally be a mistake as a human, but if Specs is a wolf I'd think it's probable he rolled a Seer role and is playing dumb about it.
Yeah, just a game rule misunderstanding. At the time I wrote that, I blanked on the fact that wolves can be seers too.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 28, 2024, 11:47:32 AMMore confusion about how seer roles are distributed?
I'm giving up on trying to figure out MSF's chart lol. I'm confident I understand the seer distribution now though.
N1P2:
Spoiler
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 25, 2024, 10:04:27 PMHi! I am here and quickly reading through everything.
This is unlike me but I did forget multiple times I was playing this game (my fault, is not an excuse; especially a "i havent been paying attention so dont count me as sus" excuse)..
It is late where I am, and I work open shift until about 4 hrs before the phase change (ugh). I will do my absolute best to reply throughout the day tomorrow!!
Initial thoughts are yes, be wary of seering claims this early and i believe it highly unlikely, if anything very lucky, that the wolves both found each other AND got THC. Lucky, because like mentioned already, everyone at full vote is an absolute certainty at this point.
N1P2 agrees here with the general strategy discussion without adding to it
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 26, 2024, 05:28:10 PMI agree, msf.
Thoughts so far are it's tough to read anyone when all we do is speculate haha.
I don't mind the no non-lynch days because it certainly provides movement through the game, but it really is tough to point a finger even if justto point one.
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 26, 2024, 05:42:28 PMIs your vote for the sake of starting a vote count because none of us have voted?
To be frank, I did think TZP's analysis was oddly creatively-specific, but perhaps that's because they have more experience in TWG than I do... Does that warrant a vote already? Not that experience matters all the time, nor do I like to think outside the game (it gets confusing to me), but seeing that BDS posted about previous THC game history, idk.
@Nana1Popo2 if you return before phase end please see my addressing this in my post above on Xiao. If I'm reading you right here, you are suspicious of me because of what you perceive as an excessively tinfoily explanation of wolf strategy. The reason I floated this idea is because I was surprised, like everyone else, not only that a doubled wolfing happened on N1 but that it happened on a player who had barely made it in time for the phase to end. My reasoning on this would indeed be a crackpot theory if I had made it before the wolfing had happened--but I didn't. I'm just trying to make sense of an unexpected development.
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 27, 2024, 02:41:49 PMI'll be so so honest, i tend to take a passenger seat role in these games! I think i've even mentioned that before.
The amount of deep dive y'all do is way beyond my mental capacity, but i do love joining along for the ride.
That being said, i will speak up if i have the right reason to do so! Maybe my flaw is I wait too long, because i want what i have to say to have substance and not just word vomit.
I'll go down the list of peeps and give my read on them, based solely on "listening" to everyone talk. I also have neither sent nor received any PM's.
Oricorio: I'm in agreement of the phrasing used by TZP, "I think Oricorio is maybe the most aggressive player in this lobby[...]". Perhaps trying to just snuff out information because they have seering power?
BDS: What I personally define as typical responsive behavior from what I remember from other games.
Specs: No true read, but it seems to have a bigger impact on other players here.
It appears that, for either some people here or in this game in general, getting a "town" read typically is given when giving heavy analysis and explanation into the social aspect of the game. As mentioned before, I lack this typically and perhaps that has always been my greatest weakness.
That being said, I will continue with the only shred of "something doesnt feel right" in my analysis.
TZP: It's only one paragraph, but it still gives me a weird feeling of how off-brand the decision may be from the wolves' perspective. It's only a hunch and I dont have much else. I appreciate the dive on Ori as it has assisted in forming my own opinion on them.
Xiao: Human lean; appreciate the effort in contributing to the game in a timely manner with the only vote so far, and the respect to say that it was primarily timing that it happened not necessarily the target.
What stands out to me about this more than anything else is the sentence at the start. I've only played one game with Ice Climbers, but that game he decidedly did NOT take a passenger seat role--he worked overtime for alliances and information and Davy gave him the "rising star" award in the postgame. So I have no idea what you're talking about here.
As far as the suspicion list itself goes, it's pretty hedgy on everyone except me. See what I said above. If you have a different explanation than I do for why the wolves would have wombo comboed THC, I would love to hear it.
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 28, 2024, 10:42:20 AMYou flatter me to think that I would take the extra time to do all that research prior to this game to come to some sort of conclusion like that haha.
Alas, i am not that well coordinated and am just trying to figure this out like the rest of you, only from a perspective of much inactivity between games.
If anything, I find it rather refreshing!
(But then i eventually get a target on my back because of it)
I will have to stick with my gut here and place a vote for TZP.
Aside from Ori, it's the only suspicion I have, including the play style dives into performance. I don't think at this moment any other person is striking much more of a flag, but anything can happen in 6 hours I suppose. Specs, your analysis is good, but idk what else I can say other than what I already have. Perhaps BDS is sliding too comfortably under everyone's radars?
I will do my best to check in before day change on my break at work. If anything further develops I will consider changing based on my previous analysis.
Please do check in and argue with me!
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 28, 2024, 12:37:40 PMXiao:
After reading this over, I'm not sure if it's enough to change my read on Xiao.
Also, after a PM convo with someone (I'll leave it up to them if they wanna say anything more) I'm going to place a vote on Oricorio for the time being, though I am willing to change it later. Of all the players in the game, I'd say Oricorio is the one I feel most uncertain on. It's not really a hard suspicion on Oricorio but more a process of elimination on who I don't want to lynch today.
[quote author=TheZeldaPianist275 link=msg=442905 date=1719606684
What stands out to me about this more than anything else is the sentence at the start. I've only played one game with Ice Climbers, but that game he decidedly did NOT take a passenger seat role--he worked overtime for alliances and information and Davy gave him the "rising star" award in the postgame. So I have no idea what you're talking about here.
[/quote]
I do want to hear more from
@Nana1Popo2 regarding this, though.
well that quote got bungled
I keep trying to put together a suspicion list, but aside from Xiao and TZP I feel like I keep flopping back and forth on the remaining three players, so it's hard for me to rank them in a definitive order (in a game this small and with two wolves it's definitely hard to get a grip on things when looking outside of a specific context). In lieu of that, over the course of the next few hours I will attempt an "abridged-TZP" approach so I can hopefully get more of my thoughts together, both for myself and for others.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 28, 2024, 01:37:29 PMAfter reading this over, I'm not sure if it's enough to change my read on Xiao.
Yeah, I was initially suspicious because of the immediacy of the vote for me, but looking at posts in isolation I think Xiao is one of my stronger human reads. I'd probably say
1. BDS
2. Xiao
3. Specs
4. Oricorio
5.
N1P2 (yes that's a vote)
3 and 4 are more or less interchangeable. I would like to hear what this PM conversation about Oricorio is before locking in anything final though.
3 hours left in Day 1!
Votecount:
- TZP: 2 (Xiao, N1P2)
- N1P2: 2 (Specs, TZP)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
- Oricorio: 1 (BDS)
Quick reply is as quick reply does, as im on a quick break here.
I totally forgot i got that distinction at the end of whatever game that was LOL.
I can see how to you all that shakes things up for me. In general, as an overarching statement with both IRL mafia games and sometimes this one, i take that passenger seat.
I love being the one who jumps in and proves a point or proves someone wrong when it becomes clear to ME, but its hard to do with this game being as social and overthinking as it is.
If that makes a little sense. Now that im talking more, at this point im speaking my mind for the sake of speaking, rather than bringing you with any clear or direct evidence.
By the sounds of it i am thinking of changing my vote around by phase change—just need to make it to my next break to read what TZP said about Xiao a little better.
Also interested in more about Ori from BDS.
Going in order of playerlist, starting with Oricorio.
Spoiler
Quote from: Oricorio on June 24, 2024, 08:56:26 PMAs I can tell, there are two main strategies the wolves can use: a wolf-wolf alliance and a wolf-Seer "alliance". The first is obvious, the wolves find each other via PM and coordinate their actions, leaving town little recourse but to act completely as a unit with even one defection potentially making the game unwinnable. Of course, that strategy would require a lot of risk for the wolves to initiate, so it's more likely we'll see the second strategy. As the seers are only a threat to one wolf each, it's advantageous for a wolf to find the seer that isn't a threat to them and use their results to control the narrative. In order to counter such a strategy, the two Seers need to be 100% coordinated. Of course, a wolf can be the seer, which carries its own problems.
This point seems innocuous enough, but if you wanna look at it under intense scrutiny, this could be wolfseer Oricorio trying to set the stage for an alliance with a human seer.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 25, 2024, 10:31:29 PMYeah, I received nothing so far. Part of me discussing a w-w alliance earlier was to see if anyone was bold enough to approach me in PMs, but no one took the bait. We probably will need some behind the scenes cooperation to outmaneuver the wolves.
This context makes the above look a bit more favorable, however. Oricorio did comparable PM shenanigans in the alliance game so it wouldn't surprise me if he, as a human, tried to do a lite-version this time around.
...then again, wolf Oricorio could have been attempting the exact same thing.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 25, 2024, 05:10:15 PMTHC is a strange target for the wolves to arrive at independently. This likely suggests that wolves are cooperating (that, or THC did something like claim seer to both wolves). At least we know that all our votes are worth the same.
On one hand, this post feels like a natural gut reaction (I was kinda surprised both wolves would pick THC at first), but after exploring all the possibilities I feel like it's still a bit weird to say that it's strange for both wolves could arrive at THC as their target independently. As I mentioned earlier, wolves could entirely have had different logic for picking THC, which still would've ended the same way.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 25, 2024, 10:31:29 PMThere has to be a reason why THC was double-targeted, and it doesn't seem to have anything to do with their posts in the thread, as it's basically just mechanical stuff that had to be taken back after clarifications from the host. Based on past games, t!THC is mainly a threat to wolves from their alliances with other players (TZP in Grinch and MSF in True Love), so maybe that's part of the reason? Might want to look at TZP and Specs a little closer
Quote from: Oricorio on June 27, 2024, 11:49:04 PMI'll clarify a couple of my points: it is unlikely that the targeting of THC was a random decision, and since we have information like that we should take advantage. Little had happened by that point, it's not as if THC had pushed major suspicions that would give people an incentive to off him, so it's mainly past games that we have to go off of. We do have a bit more to work with now in terms of reads, but I don't think you can particularly fault me for an uncofident case when we had little to work with.
However, later on Oricorio himself does go into the possibilities of why both wolves could have independently picked THC.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 28, 2024, 12:05:03 AMIt's interesting that everyone is hedging on BDS; for better or worse people usually have strong opinions on his alignment. His posts here haven't really stood out to me either.
I'm curious why Oricorio didn't mention the fact that TZP seems to be going heavy human read on me. I'm interested to see what he has to say about that; but overall, I do agree that it feels people have generally been hedging on me (though I can't blame them, as I myself have had a lot of uncertainty thus far too).
Overall opinion, mixed.
Specs
Spoiler
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 25, 2024, 02:07:52 PMMy issue what that is it makes the seer role way easier to fake. If a wolf (or even a human) fakeclaims a vanilla seer, both seers can chalk it up to it being the other seer.
If someone fakeclaims a color seer, the real seer will know that it's fake.
Whether or not to reveal the seers at some point (or even how to go about it) was definitely a contentious issue earlier in the game, and it's good to see that Specs at least appeared to be concerned about people fakeclaiming seer.
Many of Specs' posts from here until the next quote are about either the seers claiming or THC wolfing.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 27, 2024, 03:24:16 PMN1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.
N1P2 for now. Going to reread the discussion about THCs wolfing in the morning.
Specs' vote on N1P2 was the first vote on N1P2, so points for actually pushing what at the time didn't seem like something that would be a popular lynch.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 28, 2024, 06:47:46 AMA wolf may also have taken a simpler approach going for the same result: wolf someone somewhat inactive, or at least not making splashes that could be dissected. THC actually had some solid posts N1. On the other hand, N1P2 only had an off-topic fun opening post N1. N1P2 would have been the easy target for this theory, but he was spared. Therefore, I think wolf!N1P2 fits this theory the best- wolfing the most inactive player in hopes that they won't be lynched D1.
Builds on that suspicion in the context of why a wolf might have picked THC. It's an interesting point—N1P2 and THC both getting their votes reduced to 0.5 would've been a valid strategy for wolves if they were hoping to reduce the votes of people likely to live until late game, and N1P2 being one of the wolves makes it less likely for him to have been picked, which in turn makes it more likely for THC to be double picked and thus wolfed.
Overall, also sort of mixed. If Specs is a wolf he definitely seems to be gunning for the other wolf right out of the gate. If that's the case, his genuine interest in wolf hunting could work in our favor. On the other hand, if he's a human, it almost feels like he's trying to make himself a target for the wolves with some "unintentional" slips and misunderstandings he's made, that make it looks as if he's trying to hide something (and at the same time, those statements can make humans scratch their heads a bit, like how TZP picked apart Specs' posts).
No spoilers necessary for Xiao, as this will be super abridged.
Xiao tends to make a lot of short, concise posts, often stating an opinion that (seemingly, or mildly at least) goes against the grain. Even Xiao's suspicion list follows that formula despite seeming like more of a wallpost at first glance. I'd like to think my Xiao radar has been fairly accurate thus far, but as we haven't seen wolf Xiao yet, I can't say I've ever had the chance to be wrong about Xiao in recent games (there's always a first! :P ). Overall seems fairly natural and typical for Xiao. Xiao also does seem concerned about the seers becoming wolf targets (but, as was mentioned by Oricorio early in the game, would a wolf
want to kill the seer that's not a threat to them?).
Unfortunately other than that there's not a lot to say. Generally human.
One more thing though now that I'm going over Xiao's posts a second time. This post was in response to speculation as to why THC might have been wolfed.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 26, 2024, 03:21:52 PMI disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances.
What's your take on why each wolf may have picked THC independently?
Day 1 ends in 1 hour! Finalize those votes!Quote from: mastersuperfan on June 28, 2024, 01:58:19 PMVotecount:
- TZP: 2 (Xiao, N1P2)
- N1P2: 2 (Specs, TZP)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
- Oricorio: 1 (BDS)
Votecount is unchanged.
N1P2
Spoiler
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 25, 2024, 10:04:27 PMHi! I am here and quickly reading through everything.
This is unlike me but I did forget multiple times I was playing this game (my fault, is not an excuse; especially a "i havent been paying attention so dont count me as sus" excuse)..
It is late where I am, and I work open shift until about 4 hrs before the phase change (ugh). I will do my absolute best to reply throughout the day tomorrow!!
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 27, 2024, 02:41:49 PMMaybe my flaw is I wait too long, because i want what i have to say to have substance and not just word vomit.
Taking these two posts into context together, I could definitely get the impression that N1P2 is just being a bit scatterbrained (happens to us all at some point) and semi-inactive but trying to catch up and contribute. In the suspicion list though, it's a bit weird how N1P2 specifically speculates that Oricorio might be a seer; just feels a bit out of place.
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 26, 2024, 05:42:28 PMIs your vote for the sake of starting a vote count because none of us have voted?
To be frank, I did think TZP's analysis was oddly creatively-specific, but perhaps that's because they have more experience in TWG than I do... Does that warrant a vote already? Not that experience matters all the time, nor do I like to think outside the game (it gets confusing to me), but seeing that BDS posted about previous THC game history, idk.
Seems hesitant toward Xiao's vote of TZP but backs Xiao's TZP vote later based on a hunch. While I get the uncertainty this early in a game like this, it almost feels more like trying to solidly steer the lynch away from himself by providing a tempting target (possibly for the other wolf to jump on and potentially get called out on later). If N1P2 is a wolf I could definitely see him wanting and trying to get rid of the other wolf early.
Feels a little jumpy but could just be real life interference making it hard to post and get in a good headspace to properly sort through the game.
Interested to see if N1P2 ends up changing his vote later as he said he might. For the time being though, I am inclined to change my vote to N1P2 if nothing else changes.
I'm gonna be hella lazy in regards to TZP and just say that his posts have been dense with analysis and bringing in new perspectives. Even if he is a wolf I am extremely hesitant to want to lynch him today because I feel like that energy could be genuinely helpful into actually lynching one of the wolves, which could give us more wiggle room.
In a more broad sense, it's entirely possible that, like in the assassin game, the wolves could be treating this game as wolf vs. wolf with the humans as a distraction and tool to eliminate the other wolf. With the possibility (albeit slim from what I can gather) of the two wolves winning together, I figure they'd treat it more as an option if things turn out that way rather than something they're deliberately aiming for in the first place.
Oh boy ok i gotta post my thoughts asap because i just got on my lunch ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ
Going to stick with N1P2 for reasons outlined in previous posts. I realize it's currently a KitB, but I don't think I can vote for TZP just to avoid it. He's the only vote swap on my end that would avoid a KitB.
I'm back for now.
If either TZP or N1P2 is a seer they should claim now.
Voting for N1P2 to break the KitB.
Votecount:
- N1P2: 3 (Specs, TZP, BDS)
- TZP: 2 (Xiao, N1P2)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
Before reading back on posts to actually formulate proper responses, i feel like this game has become something where, from my perspective, situations out of my control have led to a couple folks narrowing down a choice to pick me. When i havent necessarily contributed to those reasons at all—more like a process of elimination so to speak.
Either extremely coincidental or it has become quite favorable for the wolves to jump on in.
When the game concludes i will likely inquire as to how you all do it when it comes to earning your place as town, because i feel like i havent contributed much (no outside PMs, no one else claiming). Definitely different from other TWG ive played in the past.
Oh also the meta-gaming side where you compare players to other games as a sort of citation, is very much out of my wheelhouse because i play this game for how it is; should i be reading that far into people?
Well, as time is running out, im glad BDS can get a sense for a little of this as i definitely am around to play and type when barely anyone else is, then am busy and tight on time when all the posts come flooding in..
If its any consolation as i dont doubt i will likely be lynched here, i appreciate the heavy analysis and breakdowns from TZP. Something i do not have the energy to do; especially, like i said before, if it involves "thinking of other games" because it has been months since i last played...
I wasnt strong on my vote for them, but will likely change due to other strong suspicions im picking up from BDS and TZP.
I will be frank, my inactivity and lack of lengthy explanation probably puts a target on my back more than i believe to see as fair, but at the same time everyone here plays the game way more often than i do. I get it..
As much as i would like to deep dive, time has gotten away from me and i will change my vote to Oricorio.
I thought them to be seer earlier primarily because their posts seemed like they were looking for info, thats it just a hunch. TZP has earned apass for now in my book because their thought process seems similar enough to mine on reads.
I have so little to go off this game, because it feels like nothing has happened for me haha. Perhaps this is why i dont play too often, idk. x)
Votecount:
- N1P2: 3 (Specs, TZP, BDS)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
- Oricorio: 1 (N1P2)
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 28, 2024, 04:50:59 PMBefore reading back on posts to actually formulate proper responses, i feel like this game has become something where, from my perspective, situations out of my control have led to a couple folks narrowing down a choice to pick me. When i havent necessarily contributed to those reasons at all—more like a process of elimination so to speak.
Either extremely coincidental or it has become quite favorable for the wolves to jump on in.
When the game concludes i will likely inquire as to how you all do it when it comes to earning your place as town, because i feel like i havent contributed much (no outside PMs, no one else claiming). Definitely different from other TWG ive played in the past.
Oh also the meta-gaming side where you compare players to other games as a sort of citation, is very much out of my wheelhouse because i play this game for how it is; should i be reading that far into people?
Well, as time is running out, im glad BDS can get a sense for a little of this as i definitely am around to play and type when barely anyone else is, then am busy and tight on time when all the posts come flooding in..
If its any consolation as i dont doubt i will likely be lynched here, i appreciate the heavy analysis and breakdowns from TZP. Something i do not have the energy to do; especially, like i said before, if it involves "thinking of other games" because it has been months since i last played...
I wasnt strong on my vote for them, but will likely change due to other strong suspicions im picking up from BDS and TZP.
I will be frank, my inactivity and lack of lengthy explanation probably puts a target on my back more than i believe to see as fair, but at the same time everyone here plays the game way more often than i do. I get it..
As much as i would like to deep dive, time has gotten away from me and i will change my vote to Oricorio.
I thought them to be seer earlier primarily because their posts seemed like they were looking for info, thats it just a hunch. TZP has earned apass for now in my book because their thought process seems similar enough to mine on reads.
I have so little to go off this game, because it feels like nothing has happened for me haha. Perhaps this is why i dont play too often, idk. x)
Are you a seer? You will most likely die if you don't claim, so there's no reason not to claim right now
I'm not going to take the responsibility to fake claim, that would be worst for me down the line. So no, i am not
Welcome back to TWG to me x)
Good luck y'all
TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and IceWolves:1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).
Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.
The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.
Humans:3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
Special powers:- Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
- Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.
If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.
Win conditions:- The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- Humans win when both wolves are dead.
Host clarifications:- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.
---
Players:1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo27. TheZeldaPianist
---
Nana1Popo2 was lynched!True votecount (including burn/chill):- N1P2: 3 (Specs, TZP, BDS)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
- Oricorio: 1 (N1P2)
It is now Night 2. Night 2 ends in 24 hours, at 8:00:00 PM EDT on Saturday, June 29th.Seerings and wolf paintings are now active!
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 28, 2024, 04:50:59 PMWhen the game concludes i will likely inquire as to how you all do it when it comes to earning your place as town, because i feel like i havent contributed much (no outside PMs, no one else claiming). Definitely different from other TWG ive played in the past.
I have so little to go off this game, because it feels like nothing has happened for me haha. Perhaps this is why i dont play too often, idk. x)
It can be difficult in small games or in games where there isn't a lot of information early. I think the biggest thing to keep in mind is knowing what buttons to push and how to stimulate discussion from very little (sometimes making a big reach is necessary to get people talking). Especially in NSMTWG, there can be ebbs and flows in phases where it feels like not much is happening, but then a lot happens all at once.
QuoteOh also the meta-gaming side where you compare players to other games as a sort of citation, is very much out of my wheelhouse because i play this game for how it is; should i be reading that far into people?
Trying to predict players based on past actions can be a bit unreliable at times (people change, sometimes day to day depending on what's going on in their lives at the time), but sometimes it's necessary (especially in something like Mafia Universe's Mafia Championship where most players haven't played with the other players before). Overall it's just about playing with the same people over and over again and getting a sense for how they act in certain situation—or playing enough to where you have a general idea how the average person might act in certain situations.
Quote from: Nana1Popo2 on June 28, 2024, 04:59:39 PMWelcome back to TWG to me x)
Good luck y'all
Sorry for the lynch but I hope you return to future TWGs :'(
Hello all, something unexpected came up yesterday and I will need some time today to deal with it as well. I will try my best to give something substantial by my evening time (Afternoon EDT)
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 28, 2024, 12:37:40 PMXiao:
yes hi
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 28, 2024, 12:37:40 PMIs this because you thought that chilling/burning changed player color?
yes
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 28, 2024, 12:37:40 PMAs I alluded to in my BDS ISO breakdown, I'm not used to you making reads early on. Placing me at the top of you list early on in the day phase and then being the first player to cast a vote is somewhat out of step with the Xiao I've played with. That said, I remember you expressing frustration in multiple previous games that you felt like no matter what you did, it was suspicious--damned if you do, damned if you don't. And I know you've also taken a break from the past few games, maybe to come back fresh. So I want to ask you, in response to that, is this different playstyle I'm picking up on a conscious effort to change how you come across/read others/make pushes?
I wouldn't say it's conscious actually, but since I don't feel like I do well with endless (in my view unsubstantial) speculation) I wanted to get things moving and provide something concrete to talk about. It's also why I voted early for the person I was most suspicious of.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 28, 2024, 12:37:40 PMYou disagree with Specs--to be clear, does that mean you're agreeing with me?
what were you asking me if I agree with?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 28, 2024, 12:37:40 PMVotes for me based on (I think) my guess that the wolves might have been trying to disguise the halved votes by placing them on unexpected players. I'm confused why though--you say here "I don't think it makes sense for the wolves to target the less active towns", but that's exactly what happened. I didn't say that that's probably what would happen, future tense--I said, given that this *already* happened, this is what suggests itself to me as a plausible reason why it might have happened.
I disagreed with the reasoning why, not the action itself. I don't see why wolves would intentionally try to kill one of the least active players just far.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 28, 2024, 03:44:09 PMWhat's your take on why each wolf may have picked THC independently?
Now upon reflection I think both wolves thinking they could halve someones vote and keep them alive backfired on them, both voting for THC. So a kill without intent
I'm a little surprised N1P2 didn't claim seer.
wolf!N1P2 would've been out of options; claiming seer would have been the one escape besides hoping to convince people to change their votes last minute. And wolf!N1P2 is a one-man team, so he loses if he's lynched. He should've been desperate to escape the lynching.
Even human!N1P2 could've claimed seer in the name of self-preservation. This one isn't as certain, as it could open a can of worms later down the road if it's obvious it was a fakeclaim. But a human trying to avoid their own mislynch seems like a valid reason to fakeclaim.
wolf!N1P2 could have just been busy (he mentioned he had work during the time approaching phase change) and just resigned once he gained votes, but his lake of seer claim makes me wonder if we lynched the wrong guy. And to be fair, it was still a KitB with less than an hour to play, so it's not like it made sense to just resign early and not fight.
I'm here now everyone. Sorry, I've been helping a friend move out since yesterday and have been running around like crazy. Looks like I got very lucky that that lynch didn't go to a KitB and that N1P2 was apparently conscientious enough to not fake claim seer to stay alive. Almost certainly that means he was a human, unfortunately.
I think everyone's behavior after I dipped out yesterday has changed my reads somewhat but I'm going to sit on my thoughts until near the end of the night phase.
5 hours left in Night 2!
Received an interesting message from TZP:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 29, 2024, 11:26:09 AMHey Oricorio, I'm the other wolf. By process of elimination I had it narrowed down to you and N1P2 at the end of D1, and given that N1P2 went down more or less without a fight I'm near-certain it's you. (If I'm wrong I just lost the game, but since I can't make kills at night if my partner's dead I feel like I need to start coordinating now if I want to win) I know it's unlikely that you trust me, maybe I'm a human trying to rustle up info, but I'm willing to pick my wolfing target based on what you tell me to pick to prove myself to you tonight. If you pick the same player I do, that person will be dead in the morning. What do you say?
Sorry, but I'm not the other wolf. Turns out my plan paid off after all.
Also my great grandmother has left the hospital, so I should be fine on that front.
Well, could be a gambit I guess. Anyone receive a similar message?
Also, agree with Specs's point that N1P1 is most likely town based on how they handled the claim. Unfortunately, I couldn't do anything to save them at that point
Quote from: Oricorio on June 29, 2024, 04:15:44 PMReceived an interesting message from TZP:
Sorry, but I'm not the other wolf. Turns out my plan paid off after all.
Also my great grandmother has left the hospital, so I should be fine on that front.
I mean, this is a stupid move if TZP really is wolf, as there's no way to confidently clear Xiao, BDS, and Specs
Come to think of it, maybe I should have played ball to gather more information. That would have damaged my credibility though. I mean, it could be a gambit to see how I'd react under the logic that if I out the message I'm town, but I have a meta of outing these kinds of things as wolf so what's the point?
Quote from: Oricorio on June 29, 2024, 04:16:17 PMWell, could be a gambit I guess. Anyone receive a similar message?
I received a similar message from TZP as well. I let Xiao know that someone claimed wolf to me and I was planning to string them along, and attempted to do so. I was planning to do an info drop sub-5 minutes before the end of the phase, as I've often taken to doing, in order to avoid potential wolf collaboration. But I suppose that option is already unnecessary with you revealing TZP's ruse.
Also, glad to hear your great grandmother is doing better!!!
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 29, 2024, 04:26:52 PMI received a similar message from TZP as well. I let Xiao know that someone claimed wolf to me and I was planning to string them along, and attempted to do so. I was planning to do an info drop sub-5 minutes before the end of the phase, as I've often taken to doing, in order to avoid potential wolf collaboration. But I suppose that option is already unnecessary with you revealing TZP's ruse.
If that's true, I'd say it doesn't tell us anything about TZP's alignment either way; w!TZP could use it to try to find the other wolf while maintaining plausible deniability that it was a gambit. Based on your message, it seems Xiao didn't get that message for whatever reason, so now we have to see if Specs got that message
I received the same message as well.
At the time, I saw it as a reaction test. Now that I see it was sent to other people, that seems true.
Even if he is a wolf, I don't think this adds any evidence for it.
So it's interesting why Xiao doesn't seem to have been sent this message (or either he or BDS is being deceptive)
I imagine that Xiao was offline, or otherwise preoccupied, by the time I sent my message. I never heard back from Xiao so that's what I assumed.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 29, 2024, 04:44:25 PMI imagine that Xiao was offline, or otherwise preoccupied, by the time I sent my message. I never heard back from Xiao so that's what I assumed.
Why did you send the message to Xiao over the others?
Anyway, I think as long as Xiao can provide receipts BDS is likely town here. If BDS is wolf, you don't really tell someone else if someone claims wolf privately to you, and if Xiao/BDS are w/w there's no need to even entertain TZP's gambit.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 29, 2024, 04:50:26 PMWhy did you send the message to Xiao over the others?
Out of everyone other than TZP, I figured Xiao was most likely to be a human.
TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and IceWolves:1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).
Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.
The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.
Humans:3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
Special powers:- Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
- Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.
If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.
Win conditions:- The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- Humans win when both wolves are dead.
Host clarifications:- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.
---
Players:1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo27. TheZeldaPianist
---
No one died last night. Hooray!It is now Day 2. Day 2 ends in 48 hours, at 8:00:00 PM EDT on Monday, July 1st.Seer result PMs:Green
The temperature feels normal. [player name] is green.
Red
Is it just you, or is it hot in here...? [player name] is red.
Blue
You feel a chill in the air... [player name] is blue.
Alright, so we'll probably have to all be coordinated here. THC is cleared, N1P1 is likely town (and if not it doesn't matter), BDS also is likely town. That means we probably are dealing with 2 in TZP/Xiao/Specs.
Probably should also discuss whether we want seers to out. If we lynch incorrectly, we may not even get another day. Just keep in mind that it's entirely possible that THC was a seer.
I'm in favor of seers claiming as well as sharing results. Even if THC was a seer, simply having a wolf bluffing can give us info, especially considering one of the seers has a chance to be a wolf anyway.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 29, 2024, 04:56:24 PMAnyway, I think as long as Xiao can provide receipts BDS is likely town here. If BDS is wolf, you don't really tell someone else if someone claims wolf privately to you, and if Xiao/BDS are w/w there's no need to even entertain TZP's gambit.
Yes, I can confirm BDS sent me said message, basically word for word as in #137.
I also received the TZP message FWIW. Seems like everyone got it: So this could be read as a reaction test or a ploy to find the other wolf under the guise of one
I too am in favor of the 'seers' sharing their results, but unfortunately I have nothing to offer myself in this regard
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 29, 2024, 05:39:12 PMYes, I can confirm BDS sent me said message, basically word for word as in #137.
Would you mind quoting the message directly? I want to fully deconfirm any possibilities of a wild world where you and BDS are w/w and somehow found each other
Okay:
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 29, 2024, 02:06:11 PMSomeone claimed wolf to me via PM. I'm not gonna say who it is just yet (planning to do a signature last-minute reveal TM), but I'm gonna string them along to try and see if they're legit.
msf, will you share the .5 vote parts in the intermediate result posts? Or will we only find out who's affected at the end of the phase?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 29, 2024, 05:57:52 PMmsf, will you share the .5 vote parts in the intermediate result posts? Or will we only find out who's affected at the end of the phase?
Only at the end of the phase. The intermediate votecounts will be apparent votecounts without burn/chill.
Thanks!
posting these responses here for public knowledge
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 29, 2024, 01:00:41 PMI am not a wolf. However, this feels more like a human reaction test. Obviously I don't know stuff in your PMs, but it was gutsy messaging me this. I don't know if a true wolf would do it.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 29, 2024, 02:12:13 PMMmmmm, interesting. I was figuring Specs was the other wolf and you were a safe bet human, but now I'm doubting myself.
I'm curious why you want to wolf someone though. Depending on who we wolf (Xiao, for example, is human read near universally, it seems but voted for you) that could reveal critical info and turn the lynch against us (it would basically be down to a KitB in that case). In contrast, if we reduce the votes of two people, there are more potential lynch candidates to deflect to, and it means that all three humans have to be united to outvote our remaining votes.
In that case I'm willing to target Xiao if you target Specs.
Nothing from Xiao or Oricorio in response. I will hopefully have time to engage tomorrow but I'm MCing a wedding so it may be difficult, I'll check in when I can
That is interesting and leads me to believe Oricorio and Specs are the two wolves. Specs' response seems too cautious for a human, a bit of a nothing burger but without denying any future possibility. And Oricorio not responding is odd: They don't the seem the type to just not respond to an interaction like this, unless they have something to hide.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 29, 2024, 11:57:43 PMThat is interesting and leads me to believe Oricorio and Specs are the two wolves. Specs' response seems too cautious for a human, a bit of a nothing burger but without denying any future possibility. And Oricorio not responding is odd: They don't the seem the type to just not respond to an interaction like this, unless they have something to hide.
Were you paying attention? I outed the message to the thread the moment I saw it
I'm definitely interested in hearing from Specs about all this.
Alright, it's time for some information.
I am a human seer, and I seer'd Oricorio last night, which returned a positive result for my color.
I didn't want to seer TZP, as I thought his gambit wolf claim may make him a good target to be painted; wolves may have thought the remaining seers would want to know the truth about TZP, so they may have painted him for misdirection.
I initially asked to seer Xiao, but changed it with a few hours left. Xiao seems to have been human-read by the majority of the field, and I figured the seer would be best used/believed on someone else.
Both BDS and Oricorio knew about my seer power during N2, so this was a bit of a coin flip between the two.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 30, 2024, 04:00:54 AMBoth BDS and Oricorio knew about my seer power during N2, so this was a bit of a coin flip between the two.
BDS (and Oricorio), can you confirm?
I think it's worth discussing if I should claim color or not.
Claiming color gives the wolves more information, specifically the opposite color wolf. But what benefit does the opposite wolf have by forming an alliance with the seer? Or just keeping him alive?
What does everyone else think?
For now, I'm going to keep the color hidden until we discuss it more, or the other seer claims a result.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 24, 2024, 11:39:36 PMMaybe we can make a 'rule' to not agree on seer stuff in groups smaller than three?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 30, 2024, 07:01:49 AMWhat does everyone else think?
I'm not sure what benefit town knowing your color would have, other than adding legitimacy to your claim. But if BDS and TZP can confirm it through other means, I think that would be better?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 04:11:31 AMBDS (and Oricorio), can you confirm?
I can indeed confirm.
Right now I feel like we should get the other seer to claim, then maybe have them claim their color to someone privately. If they contradict, then, well, that brings their claims into question.
I'm the other seer and I got a green flip on my target last night
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 04:11:31 AMBDS (and Oricorio), can you confirm?
Yes.
I will also say that I fakeclaimed seer to TZP in an attempt to get them to claim to me. The idea was if we could get TZP and Specs to both individually claim Seer colors in private, we could see if their claims are contradictory. (TZP was figured out to likely be a Seer based on PoE). BDS can confirm this plan.
So we know that the Seers are almost certaunly between TZP/Specs/THC (sadly, THC can't claim to us). If both TZP and Specs are real, that makes Xiao the optimal lynch for today. BDS is likely town based on reaction to TZP's gambit, and since we know that the seers can't both be wolves, then it's better the eliminate the wolf who can't give us information. That world would lead to a TZP/Specs thunderdome D3. Only problem is if THC is a seer, which would mean TZP/Specs w/w is still possible. Given that, I think both seers should still claim their colors privately to BDS.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 10:39:42 AMYes.
I will also say that I fakeclaimed seer to TZP in an attempt to get them to claim to me. The idea was if we could get TZP and Specs to both individually claim Seer colors in private, we could see if their claims are contradictory. (TZP was figured out to likely be a Seer based on PoE). BDS can confirm this plan.
I can confirm.
Since neither Specs nor TZP have revealed which seer they are yet, I kinda wanna try the private claiming plan in case it managed to get a hit.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 10:46:44 AMSo we know that the Seers are almost certaunly between TZP/Specs/THC (sadly, THC can't claim to us). If both TZP and Specs are real, that makes Xiao the optimal lynch for today. BDS is likely town based on reaction to TZP's gambit, and since we know that the seers can't both be wolves, then it's better the eliminate the wolf who can't give us information. That world would lead to a TZP/Specs thunderdome D3. Only problem is if THC is a seer, which would mean TZP/Specs w/w is still possible. Given that, I think both seers should still claim their colors privately to BDS.
From your perspective, I can see why Xiao makes sense, but at the same time, there
is a color seering on you.
In addition, I'm still somewhat cautious of Specs' claims. As I pointed out to both TZP and Oricorio, Specs said some things N1 which seemed to indicate he
wasn't a seer (most notably, missing the fact that seering only activates N2, which is something explicitly spell out in the seer role PMs). Though he could've deliberately been trying to shield himself and make the wolves think he wasn't a seer, it does feel more like he was either:
1. A wolf who wasn't a seer and only decided to claim seer privately (to test the waters and perhaps sus out the real seers) once heat started picking up on him.
2. A wolf seer who didn't intend to reveal himself but felt forced to once it seemed like he was a probable lynch candidate.
Also, the fact that Specs got a color hit also kiiiiiiinnda makes it look like he's trying to target Oricorio :P
Also of note is this PM Specs sent me:
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 29, 2024, 05:39:18 PMI did, and you were a positive hit for my color.
Obviously that's not proof that you're a wolf, but it's a 50/50 now. I don't really have any reason to believe one way or the other at the moment.
It's super hedgy and I don't know about Specs's meta in this regard but this is not how I'd react to someone I had a guilty result on.
I stand by my thought that its Oricorio and Specs
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 11:14:38 AMI stand by my thought that its Oricorio and Specs
That could definitely be the case.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 29, 2024, 11:57:43 PMThat is interesting and leads me to believe Oricorio and Specs are the two wolves. Specs' response seems too cautious for a human, a bit of a nothing burger but without denying any future possibility. And Oricorio not responding is odd: They don't the seem the type to just not respond to an interaction like this, unless they have something to hide.
May be confbiased here a little but I think this push on me looks bad. Specs knows full well that I "responded" by outing the PM, so I don't see this as being a natural thought. But he needs to have a reason to suspect me, since as I established earlier if I am treated as town Xiao is just constrained by PoE. This is what we call a boxed in wolf.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 11:25:36 AMMay be confbiased here a little but I think this push on me looks bad. Xiao knows full well that I "responded" by outing the PM, so I don't see this as being a natural thought. But he needs to have a reason to suspect me, since as I established earlier if I am treated as town Xiao is just constrained by PoE. This is what we call a boxed in wolf.
Fixed
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 11:25:36 AM... needs to have a reason to suspect me, since as I established earlier if I am treated as town Xiao is just constrained by PoE. This is what we call a boxed in wolf.
Where did you establish this?
On the other hand, Oricorio I sorta feel like your push on Xiao is you taking the opportunity to lynch someone who would otherwise never be lynched because of how human read they are. From your perspective, it'd be a monumental task to get either TZP or I to vote for each other (not to mention convincing anyone else), but Xiao doesn't have quite as much insurance because TZP has been much more proactive at providing reasons to see him as human.
Your only other option to push would be Specs which looks bad because he claimed seer.
Gonna be heading out shortly. Will likely be back within the next 4-6 hours.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 30, 2024, 11:36:13 AMbut Xiao doesn't have quite as much insurance because TZP has been much more proactive at providing reasons to see him as human.
sometimes I get the impression that portraying me as stupid is a legit strategy to detract from what I do say
I'm also not sure if I've just forgotten your playstyle Oricorio but you do seem to be targeting me somewhat aggressively. This is what we call a boxed in wolf.
(I should be around to change my vote later if needed)
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 30, 2024, 11:36:13 AMOn the other hand, Oricorio I sorta feel like your push on Xiao is you taking the opportunity to lynch someone who would otherwise never be lynched because of how human read they are. From your perspective, it'd be a monumental task to get either TZP or I to vote for each other (not to mention convincing anyone else), but Xiao doesn't have quite as much insurance because TZP has been much more proactive at providing reasons to see him as human.
Your only other option to push would be Specs which looks bad because he claimed seer.
Gonna be heading out shortly. Will likely be back within the next 4-6 hours.
I don't think you quite understand the situation we are in. If both of the seers survive D2, it can give us a lot of information going into F3, which is why Xiao is optimal (and not because it "looks bad"). I don't really care that Xiao is townread, what have they really done to advance town's wincon? The D1 vote was probably a mislynch and given that the two most viable CWs were our seer claims, maybe that's a sign town wasn't doing well at all D1. Still, we're in a situation where it's close to a lock but one mistake means it's all over. For now, we need to establish the trustworthiness of the seer claims (but we know at least one has to be legit).
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 11:55:28 AMI'm also not sure if I've just forgotten your playstyle Oricorio but you do seem to be targeting me somewhat aggressively. This is what we call a boxed in wolf.
(I should be around to change my vote later if needed)
Again, this push is contrived. Why wouldn't town be "aggressive"? The use of "somewhat" does a lot of heavy lifting here and truly sells that you don't really feel this way.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 11:58:59 AMI don't think you quite understand the situation we are in. If both of the seers survive D2, it can give us a lot of information going into F3, which is why Xiao is optimal (and not because it "looks bad"). I don't really care that Xiao is townread, what have they really done to advance town's wincon? The D1 vote was probably a mislynch and given that the two most viable CWs were our seer claims, maybe that's a sign town wasn't doing well at all D1. Still, we're in a situation where it's close to a lock but one mistake means it's all over. For now, we need to establish the trustworthiness of the seer claims (but we know at least one has to be legit).
If I'm not mistaken a mislynch will cost us the game?
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 12:00:17 PMWhy wouldn't town be "aggressive"?
Because arguing with emotions doesn't get us anywhere
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 12:00:17 PMThe use of "somewhat" does a lot of heavy lifting here and truly sells that you don't really feel this way.
Well okay then, I guess I dont after all
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 12:00:50 PMIf I'm not mistaken a mislynch will cost us the game?
If both seers are legit, then you (or N1P2 I guess) are not a mislynch. Unless you want to convince me it's BDS?
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 12:00:17 PMWhy wouldn't town be "aggressive"?
And I can certainly explain why a wolf like you might be acting "aggressive" at the moment :)
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 12:02:43 PMIf both seers are legit, then you (or N1P2 I guess) are not a mislynch. Unless you want to convince me it's BDS?
There are 5 of us at the moment, and 4 needed for parity, no?
I genuinely don't understand how BDS relates to this, sorry
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 12:03:41 PMThere are 5 of us at the moment, and 4 needed for parity, no?
THC confirmed town
N1P2 likely town, a wolf would have almost certainly claimed seer in their position. (But if they are wolf, we have a free mislynch anyway)
I know I'm town.
BDS most likely town based on reaction to TZP's gambit.
TZP and Specs are both seer claims, assuming they're legit they can't be w/w
That just leaves you.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 11:34:43 AMWhere did you establish this?
I would also greatly appreciate an answer on this!
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 12:08:50 PMI would also greatly appreciate an answer on this!
Read above post
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 12:06:46 PMTZP and Specs are both seer claims, assuming they're legit they can't be w/w
Why not? Seers can be wolves and vice versa
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 12:09:49 PMRead above post
Doesn't seem related but nevermind then, guess it wasn't established
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 12:09:54 PMWhy not? Seers can be wolves and vice versa
Quote from: mastersuperfan on June 23, 2024, 05:01:52 PMIf both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 11:06:12 AMIt's super hedgy and I don't know about Specs's meta in this regard but this is not how I'd react to someone I had a guilty result on.
It's hedgy because it's a legit 50/50 whether you are the wolf or you got framed. I guess that's just my meta.
Ah okay I misunderstood what you were getting at
(Oricorio)
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 30, 2024, 10:51:01 AMSince neither Specs nor TZP have revealed which seer they are yet, I kinda wanna try the private claiming plan in case it managed to get a hit.
My issue with this: the private message recipient will have the opportunity to mess with things. My suggestion is both TZP and I message 2 people their colors. That way we have two people verifying the results.
What do you all think?
I approve
Ideally not me since I'll go eat breakfast now
Here is what I suggest. Both TZP and I PM two players (BDS and Xiao?) and reveal our colors. They can independently report back. If the TZP and my colors mismatch, we know we have shenanigans. I left Oricorio out of this just because he has the positive hit on him, but if anyone objects to the choice of BDS and Xiao, let us know.
I don't necessarily think knowing the colors helps the humans or wolves a whole lot at this point, but I think this is a good plan to mostly confirm that TZP and I are legit seers.
I'll wait to hear back from TZP before I send anything.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 29, 2024, 04:56:24 PMAnyway, I think as long as Xiao can provide receipts BDS is likely town here. If BDS is wolf, you don't really tell someone else if someone claims wolf privately to you, and if Xiao/BDS are w/w there's no need to even entertain TZP's gambit.
I wanted to ask about this. Why does this make town!BDS most likely? Under normal rules where wolves are teammates, I'd say you're correct. But since the wolves are on completely separate teams, a wolf ratting out another wolf claim seems logical. wolf!BDS needs wolf!TZP to die in order to win.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 30, 2024, 10:57:02 AMIn addition, I'm still somewhat cautious of Specs' claims. As I pointed out to both TZP and Oricorio, Specs said some things N1 which seemed to indicate he wasn't a seer (most notably, missing the fact that seering only activates N2, which is something explicitly spell out in the seer role PMs).
In my defense, the N2 seer activation was a later revision to the game rules. I agree that it's not the best look, but it was an oversight on my end.
For what it's worth, I'm giving TZP the benefit of the doubt for now. Fakeclaiming the second and final seer spot when only 2 players have died (of which one, N1P2, explicitly did not claim seer) is a gamble, especially when there's a way to test the validity of the claim (each seer is either ice or fire).
Of course, being a seer doesn't clear anyone of being wolf. I'm just referring to my thoughts on TZP being a real seer.
As far as Xiao being a lynch candidate:
It wouldn't surprise me if town!Xiao was burned or chilled N2, for similar reasons to why I think THC was killed N1; the strong consensus seemed to be that Xiao was town aligned, probably the most so of anyone. This would make him less likely to be lynched D2, and thus I could see him being targeted on N1 by wolves to build their vote manipulation power. It would not have shocked me if Xiao was killed N2 for that reason.
That does make me slightly suspicious that Xiao could be one of the wolves. But a simple explanation is that two other wolves wanted to prevent another THC situation from happening.
The positive hit on Oricorio is a much stronger argument for lynching atm for me.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 30, 2024, 02:58:10 PMIn my defense, the N2 seer activation was a later revision to the game rules. I agree that it's not the best look, but it was an oversight on my end.
For full transparency, here is a list of changes that were made to the game between when it was first posted in host sign-ups and when player sign-ups started:
- Burning/chilling no longer changes player color, and temporary paintings were added instead.
- Seers now only work from N2 onward, instead of from N1 onward.
- It is not possible for both seer roles to go to wolves.
- True vote counts are now released following each day's lynch.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 30, 2024, 02:53:00 PMI wanted to ask about this. Why does this make town!BDS most likely? Under normal rules where wolves are teammates, I'd say you're correct. But since the wolves are on completely separate teams, a wolf ratting out another wolf claim seems logical. wolf!BDS needs wolf!TZP to die in order to win.
This is untrue, wolves can win together so there is a benefit in collaboration
24 hours left in Day 2!
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 03:42:33 PMThis is untrue, wolves can win together so there is a benefit in collaboration
Oh you're right. My b. So the logic being wolf!BDS wouldn't rat out the other wolf because it may be beneficial to work together?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 30, 2024, 05:35:50 PMOh you're right. My b. So the logic being wolf!BDS wouldn't rat out the other wolf because it may be beneficial to work together?
Yes, and he wouldn't have an incentive to out it to Xiao and play along with TZP. (If he did either individually, he could still be wolf, but the combination of the two makes it unlikely, as if he was wolf he'd be opening himself up to being screwed over by one of them)
Although the wolves aren't a team (though I believe there is at least a decent chance they might have found each other by now and I wouldn't take that possibility for granted), the fact that they can work together means they're still incentivized to push a lynch on town. Ultimately, that means it's likely 40% of the players here (50% of the other living players from a town perspective) are still likely pushing a vote that they think will be bad for town, so keep that in mind before pushing something as "consensus".
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 05:47:49 PMAlthough the wolves aren't a team (though I believe there is at least a decent chance they might have found each other by now and I wouldn't take that possibility for granted), the fact that they can work together means they're still incentivized to push a lynch on town. Ultimately, that means it's likely 40% of the players here (50% of the other living players from a town perspective) are still likely pushing a vote that they think will be bad for town, so keep that in mind before pushing something as "consensus".
In fact, I think the "consensus" vote is almost always town here. Think about it: wolves are incentivized to lynch someone they haven't marked to get to their win condition faster, and they're incentivized to avoid someone they think might be their partner. The wolves control 40% of the voices in the thread (assuming N1P2 town), which means a "consensus" can't be formed without the input of at least one of them. Add this together, and what can you conclude? The "consensus" target is likely town that didn't get marked.
Can town still win after two mislynches in a row? The answer is yes, but only if wolves cross marked each other N2 or if we mislynch a marked townie, the other person marked is a wolf, and the remaining wolf gets marked N3. Otherwise, if we mislynch today you better pray N1P2 is a wolf.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 11:51:01 AMsometimes I get the impression that portraying me as stupid is a legit strategy to detract from what I do say
Huh? I was referring to TZP doing stuff like the wolf gambit he did last phase.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 11:58:59 AMI don't think you quite understand the situation we are in. If both of the seers survive D2, it can give us a lot of information going into F3, which is why Xiao is optimal (and not because it "looks bad"). I don't really care that Xiao is townread, what have they really done to advance town's wincon? The D1 vote was probably a mislynch and given that the two most viable CWs were our seer claims, maybe that's a sign town wasn't doing well at all D1. Still, we're in a situation where it's close to a lock but one mistake means it's all over. For now, we need to establish the trustworthiness of the seer claims (but we know at least one has to be legit).
And if we don't lynch a wolf today we probably lose period. There are 5 players, 2 of whom are wolves and up to 2 of whom (safe to assume it's 2) who have halved votes. Best case scenario for humans is that the wolves reduced each other's votes, but that's not something we should count on. Needless to say, if we lynch a human today, especially one who has a full vote it ain't looking too good.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 12:02:43 PMIf both seers are legit, then you (or N1P2 I guess) are not a mislynch. Unless you want to convince me it's BDS?
I'm confused by stuff like this when it's possible for one of the wolves to be a seer. I don't wanna accuse you of deliberately trying to obfuscate things, but it definitely feels like you're... distracting. Right now, from my perspective when it comes to you vs. Xiao, I feel like you haven't given strong enough reasons why Xiao over you. Or even which of TZP or Specs might be a wolf.
From my perspective if neither TZP or Specs are a wolf, then the wolves are you and Xiao. If one of TZP or Specs is a wolf, I think it's much more likely to be Specs, leaving the remaining wolf between you and Xiao. Of you and Xiao, I think it's much more likely for it to be you than Xiao.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 30, 2024, 12:19:36 PMMy issue with this: the private message recipient will have the opportunity to mess with things. My suggestion is both TZP and I message 2 people their colors. That way we have two people verifying the results.
What do you all think?
If the PM recipient messes with things then that will basically guarantee out them as a wolf. Messaging 2 people instead of 1 would be fine, but to propose an alternative:
1. You and TZP claim to someone.
2. That person confirms receiving both PMs.
3. You and TZP claim your color publicly.
4. Person confirms that it matches what you sent them.
These steps could also work with 2 people instead of 1.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 30, 2024, 12:32:59 PMHere is what I suggest. Both TZP and I PM two players (BDS and Xiao?) and reveal our colors. They can independently report back. If the TZP and my colors mismatch, we know we have shenanigans. I left Oricorio out of this just because he has the positive hit on him, but if anyone objects to the choice of BDS and Xiao, let us know.
I don't necessarily think knowing the colors helps the humans or wolves a whole lot at this point, but I think this is a good plan to mostly confirm that TZP and I are legit seers.
I'll wait to hear back from TZP before I send anything.
That's a fine enough plan as long as you and TZP both agree on what you're doing.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 30, 2024, 02:58:10 PMIn my defense, the N2 seer activation was a later revision to the game rules. I agree that it's not the best look, but it was an oversight on my end.
Fair enough. Not really something I can prove or disprove either way, more of an interesting discrepancy I noticed after you first claimed to me.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 30, 2024, 03:20:05 PMAs far as Xiao being a lynch candidate:
It wouldn't surprise me if town!Xiao was burned or chilled N2, for similar reasons to why I think THC was killed N1; the strong consensus seemed to be that Xiao was town aligned, probably the most so of anyone. This would make him less likely to be lynched D2, and thus I could see him being targeted on N1 by wolves to build their vote manipulation power. It would not have shocked me if Xiao was killed N2 for that reason.
I didn't quite think of that before but I like the observation (especially considering Xiao was one of my fake suggestions for targets to TZP).
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 05:47:49 PMAlthough the wolves aren't a team (though I believe there is at least a decent chance they might have found each other by now and I wouldn't take that possibility for granted), the fact that they can work together means they're still incentivized to push a lynch on town. Ultimately, that means it's likely 40% of the players here (50% of the other living players from a town perspective) are still likely pushing a vote that they think will be bad for town, so keep that in mind before pushing something as "consensus".
Assuming the wolves found each other by the start of Day 2 and not the night prior, they know who each other targeted and they probably know
who they need to lynch today to win. If they found each other Night 2 then they probably coordinated their targets to people who were least likely to be lynched anyway.
I personally don't think the wolves have found each other yet, but it's something to keep in mind in case they have.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 06:02:18 PMCan town still win after two mislynches in a row? The answer is yes, but only if wolves cross marked each other N2 or if we mislynch a marked townie, the other person marked is a wolf, and the remaining wolf gets marked N3. Otherwise, if we mislynch today you better pray N1P2 is a wolf.
In a game like this I think it's best to assume we need to lynch a wolf today.
Apparent votecount: (because I forgot earlier)
- Oricorio: 1 (Xiao)
Open to considering another 24-hour phase extension if anyone would like one, but I don't want to prolong the game too much if it's going to wear down on people (and I don't want an extension to influence the game in a way that isn't fun / unfairly disadvantages one side or another). Feel free to PM me whether you'd prefer or not prefer another phase extension.
For the time being assume that the phase ends as currently scheduled (as I'm currently inclined to keep it at, given the amount of discussion in the thread), but I'll see tomorrow morning. If anyone has circumstances that will make it difficult to engage with the game tomorrow before phase change, do let me know!
TWC Post
MSF, wolves thrive on the pressure of time, so granting a phase extension this late in a day phase (especially one that from an outsider perspective could be a deciding one) would be extremely benificial to town and detrimental to wolves. While you as the host are allowed to make phases as long as you wish (as long as they meet the minimum length, of course), I would advice very strongly against rewarding a phase extension at this point.
Still waiting to hear from TZP, although it's still early in the States.
I thought I'd compile a suspicion list so far.
Moderate Wolf Lean
Oricorio: I'm going off the hard data point of a positive seer hit. Everything else is at least somewhat speculative at this point, but I can fall back on this. I'd hate to pass up on a positive seer check if there wasn't much to go off of besides speculation.
Slight Wolf Lean
Xiao: As I mentioned in a previous post, the fact that Xiao wasn't killed N2 makes me slightly suspicious, since he seemed to be easily the most town-read player. That alone wouldn't automatically make me lean wolf!Xiao, however. His vote for Oricorio soon after I revealed the seering does seem like wolfplay trying to hop on/create momentum for someone with suspicion. On one hand, Oricorio did suggest a Xiao lynching, so I understand some pushback, but the vote did appear a bit bandwagon-y to me.
Neutral Lean
TZP: Still waiting to hear back about the seering plan. Flat out not agreeing to/ignoring the plan would be extremely suspicion, but we're not there yet. The gambit offers little information to me. wolf!TZP could have easily fallen back on falsely claiming it was a reaction test, when in actuality it was a real attempt to partner with the other wolf (who was fairly certain to be alive). town!TZP could've played the gambit to find a wolf and gather information, and also claim it being a reaction test. Both possibilities seem realistic, and nobody played along with the plan. He's been pretty quiet D2, so I'll want to hear more thoughts.
Town Lean
BDS: I do agree that his reaction to TZP's gambit appears human. I also appreciate the push to reveal the seer colors, since it could catch a wolf faking seer. Not much else to report here. I'm not convinced that revealing colors at this point in the game benefits the wolves a whole lot. As the game progresses, a wolf-seer alliance loses value.
Acknowledged, davy.
Phase ends 11 hours from now.
Very sorry for my absence everyone. I'll catch up over the next couple hours and engage with what's been said recdently
First things first—I buy the Specs seer claim. He's too conservative to nakedly fakeclaim that without assurances that a seer already died. He could totally be a wolf seer as well, but I don't think he's just a normal wolf bullshitting us. And the fact that he is the one pushing for the "reveal your colors privately" plan makes me trust him more. I agree to this plan, and I'm fine with BDS and Xiao as the escrow agents for those claims. Should I claim who I seered last night in those messages as well?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 10:13:25 AMFirst things first—I buy the Specs seer claim. He's too conservative to nakedly fakeclaim that without assurances that a seer already died. He could totally be a wolf seer as well, but I don't think he's just a normal wolf bullshitting us. And the fact that he is the one pushing for the "reveal your colors privately" plan makes me trust him more. I agree to this plan, and I'm fine with BDS and Xiao as the escrow agents for those claims. Should I claim who I seered last night in those messages as well?
I'll send my PM to BDS and Xiao now.
Regarding the green result, I say yes if you're comfortable. It will help build a picture of what we're dealing with.
PM has been sent to BDS and Xiao.
Same. Check your inboxes fellas
6 hours left in Day 2!(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/71EYTXRixXL._AC_UF894,1000_QL80_.jpg)
Quote from: mastersuperfan on June 30, 2024, 06:54:03 PMApparent votecount: (because I forgot earlier)
- Oricorio: 1 (Xiao)
Votecount remains unchanged.
With respect to the wolf claim gambit, I didn't really expect to get anything earth-shattering out of that. At most I wanted to see how other players reacted to the bait and who they pushed me toward hitting in the night. I knew that it would be shared with the thread pretty quickly (though I was a bit surprised Oricorio didn't wait till near the end of the phase to do so, and I was surprised that everyone didn't send at least *something* in response). If I were a wolf trying to scout out a partner, I would have done that by claiming my specific role as a wolf.
As far as current pushes go—I still read Xiao as fairly human but I'm confused why Specs said that the "majority of the field" agreed on that—I thought it was just me and BDS? I mentioned that my suspicion list moved around a bit last night as a result of the D1 lynch, but funnily enough, I think it's settled again roughly around where it was during D1 lol. I'll wait for BDS and Xiao before I elaborate more on that.
PMs received and read. If we wanna wait for Xiao to reveal specifics I'll wait, but I can confirm that the apparent seers and seerings match.
Also, Oricorio. Even without the seering I'd probably be voting for Oricorio. The seering on top of that just further cements that.
If I had to rank people based on most likely to be a wolf to least likely to be a wolf, I'd say:
Oricorio > Specs > Xiao > TZP
Apparent votecount:
- Oricorio: 2 (Xiao, BDS)
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 11:34:08 AMPMs received and read. If we wanna wait for Xiao to reveal specifics I'll wait, but I can confirm that the apparent seers and seerings match.
Match as in they're the same or opposite?
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 11:41:10 AMMatch as in they're the same or opposite?
They don't contradict each other; they're the opposite from each other.
Is there really even a point in being coy about this any more? I Ctrl+C/Ctrl+V'd the same message to Xiao that I sent to BDS lol, it would be suicidal for one of the four of us to claim different things in public from what we said in private
Statistically speaking, there is a 2/3 chance both Specs and TZP are legit if we accept the premise that the seers are between them and THC. This is because in half the worlds where THC is a seer, the seer who's faking would have claimed the same color as the real seer.
What has Xiao done that people are townreading them for? All I can gather is that they have a decent tone, but is that really hard to fake? They hadn't responded to the gambit, accomplished little behind the scenes as far as I can tell, and are mainly sheeping the easiest reads; I don't see much in the way of solving from them. Contrast me, who proactively pushed the private seer claims to see if they overlap (though it seems BDS is getting the credit for that, even though I am the one who suggested it) and have been trying to actively lock the game down. Which one of us actually looks like the wolf here?
Xiao on the offchance I can't return because my phone is dying. TZP needs to step it up like right now though to be confident we aren't in a TZP/Specs hellworld.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:03:43 PM(though it seems BDS is getting the credit for that, even though I am the one who suggested it)
Hm? Unless there's a way earlier post that you're referring to, I was the one who first brought it up (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=13030.msg442976#msg442976) this phase.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 12:07:11 PMHm? Unless there's a way earlier post that you're referring to, I was the one who first brought it up (https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/index.php?topic=13030.msg442976#msg442976) this phase.
I brought it up in PMs
Apparent votecount:
- Oricorio: 2 (Xiao, BDS)
- Xiao: 1 (Oricorio)
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:07:00 PMXiao on the offchance I can't return because my phone is dying. TZP needs to step it up like right now though to be confident we aren't in a TZP/Specs hellworld.
I'm not clear at all on what I need to step up?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 12:10:29 PMI'm not clear at all on what I need to step up?
Activity, solving, etc. You've done the least this phase out of anyone here
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:03:43 PMWhat has Xiao done that people are townreading them for? All I can gather is that they have a decent tone, but is that really hard to fake? They hadn't responded to the gambit, accomplished little behind the scenes as far as I can tell, and are mainly sheeping the easiest reads; I don't see much in the way of solving from them. Contrast me, who proactively pushed the private seer claims to see if they overlap (though it seems BDS is getting the credit for that, even though I am the one who suggested it) and have been trying to actively lock the game down. Which one of us actually looks like the wolf here?
To respond to the whole post instead of just the one snippet:
From an outside perspective it kinda looks like you're pushing Xiao because that's the
only option you have (which it would be if you're trying to win with the other wolf—if we lynch a wolf today and you're the last remaining wolf, then you're most likely going to be lynched next day phase, so it sorta
is your only option to win with the other wolf), which doesn't really answer the question on who the
other wolf is.
I don't really wanna go just on vibes alone, but to me it definitely feels like your train of wolf hunting starts and ends at Xiao.
A couple questions for TZP: Do you think me/Xiao is a viable team? Do you think we're being too quick to clear BDS based on his reaction to the gambit?
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:08:15 PMI brought it up in PMs
This is the PM you're referring to, I'm guessing?
Quote from: Oricorio on June 29, 2024, 06:31:09 PMSince we both know who it is, I suppose there's no harm in revealing it's Specs. I am vanilla and Xiao is apparently vanilla so if you're not seer the only two other people it can be are TZP and THC. Specs claimed they had a wolf check on me (but didn't reveal the color) but given the lack of enthusiasm in the claim it might be a reaction test, so I want you to push them to claim their result privately to you (but don't reveal we're in contact). We also should push TZP to claim in PMs, possibly by one of us fakeclaiming seer. The idea is to see if they contradict each other by claiming the same color, which would force a thunderdome.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 11:11:30 AMAs far as current pushes go—I still read Xiao as fairly human but I'm confused why Specs said that the "majority of the field" agreed on that—I thought it was just me and BDS?
You, BDS primarily, and I didn't find him particularly wolfy. The point being that he wasn't a primary lynch candidate N1, so I figured he had a decent chance to burned/chilled N2.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 12:13:30 PMTo respond to the whole post instead of just the one snippet:
From an outside perspective it kinda looks like you're pushing Xiao because that's the only option you have (which it would be if you're trying to win with the other wolf—if we lynch a wolf today and you're the last remaining wolf, then you're most likely going to be lynched next day phase, so it sorta is your only option to win with the other wolf), which doesn't really answer the question on who the other wolf is.
I don't really wanna go just on vibes alone, but to me it definitely feels like your train of wolf hunting starts and ends at Xiao.
Last wolf is between Specs/TZP, but number one TZP has done so little this phase it's hard to solve between them and number two this has (or had) a chance of self-resolving if one of them died. However, you're blind if you think I haven't been trying to solve Specs, what do you think I was trying to accomplish with the PMs I sent you?
Additionally, if you think my solve is too narrow, isn't the same true of Xiao? But I've at least been trying to solve in worlds while Xiao takes the laziest answer
Like I've been at least trying to get to the bottom of everything here while all Xiao's done is just parrot things others have said with no digging of their own. The redcheck is unfortunate, and I understand if it costs the game as people aren't likely to trust me after I got away with a redcheck as wolf in the Grinch game. However, you have to understand that seerings are somewhat rigged towards the wolves as they can frame whoever they think is likeliest to be seered (and I, due to my low activity before this phase, wasn't a difficult guess) plus it's always possible Specs is a wolf who made up that result for his own purposes (regardless of whether or not he's actually seer).
I think it's valid to put the spotlight on Xiao though. I thought his D1 game was strong, although D2 he has fought back against Oricorio and voted for him early. I didn't love the early vote, especially given I had just revealed the seer claim on Oricorio.
Also, TZP/BDS/Xiao, who got the green check last night?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 24, 2024, 01:47:23 AMAlso, red or blue seerings are more likely than not to still be humans
LOL.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 24, 2024, 01:47:23 AMAlso, red or blue seerings are more likely than not to still be humans
This was post #6. I made the same rules misunderstanding. Xiao and I both redacted our statements early N1 after MSF cleared it up.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 25, 2024, 05:04:35 PMwell that's not good...
I will say that "commenting first thing SoD on a result that's bad for town" is a common wolftell
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 24, 2024, 11:39:54 PMAlso it would be nice to hear from THC at some point...
This is another wolfy post, saying you want to hear from someone is not a read and just a way of filling spaceightly pushing someone, and the unnecessary ellipses is also something wolves do a lot.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:17:59 PMLast wolf is between Specs/TZP, but number one TZP has done so little this phase it's hard to solve between them and number two this has (or had) a chance of self-resolving if one of them died. However, you're blind if you think I haven't been trying to solve Specs, what do you think I was trying to accomplish with the PMs I sent you?
Additionally, if you think my solve is too narrow, isn't the same true of Xiao? But I've at least been trying to solve in worlds while Xiao takes the laziest answer
Looking over your posts this phase, it doesn't really feel like you've been putting much emphasis on Specs. Re: PMs, that's kinda true, but at the same time handling it in PMs like that feels like it could just be a way for you to try and covertly connect with wolf!Specs.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:22:49 PMLike I've been at least trying to get to the bottom of everything here while all Xiao's done is just parrot things others have said with no digging of their own. The redcheck is unfortunate, and I understand if it costs the game as people aren't likely to trust me after I got away with a redcheck as wolf in the Grinch game. However, you have to understand that seerings are somewhat rigged towards the wolves as they can frame whoever they think is likeliest to be seered (and I, due to my low activity before this phase, wasn't a difficult guess) plus it's always possible Specs is a wolf who made up that result for his own purposes (regardless of whether or not he's actually seer).
Has Xiao really been parroting? As I mentioned in my overview of each player D1, Xiao usually has a tendency to go against the grain to varying degrees and I feel like that behavior has been fairly consistent. At this point in the game there aren't really many options, and Xiao being the first one to strongly push against you doesn't feel contradictory or like parroting.
Also, TZP seered you green, so that means you weren't painted by at least one wolf.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:32:11 PMThis is another wolfy post, saying you want to hear from someone is not a read and just a way of filling spaceightly pushing someone
"I want to hear more from X" is something I've done repeatedly, not just this game, but prior games.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:32:11 PMand the unnecessary ellipses is also something wolves do a lot.
...
idk about Xiao, but me, that's just how I speak normally :P
It seems all Xiao really managed to accomplish D1 was write a post with mostly hedgy reads and voting TZP early. He also seems to have abandoned the TZP push?
In the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected? Wolf!Specs probably would have legit seered Oricorio, and from there it's a matter of whether Specs would want to throw Oricorio under the bus or attempt to win together. Depending on who Specs and Oricorio may have targeted for vote reduction, it's possible Specs' hands may be forced in the matter regardless (like, maybe he painted me or TZP and reduced Xiao's vote, so Xiao wouldn't be an optimal lynch if he wanted to win).
In contrast, if Specs and Xiao are wolves together, then I'm not sure if they would have connected by now unless Xiao made a bold move and PM'd Specs this phase on the assumption Specs is a wolf.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 12:35:08 PMLooking over your posts this phase, it doesn't really feel like you've been putting much emphasis on Specs. Re: PMs, that's kinda true, but at the same time handling it in PMs like that feels like it could just be a way for you to try and covertly connect with wolf!Specs.
I was already in PMs with Specs, where did you think I got the information? This feels contrived
I'm thinking about why Oricorio would be painted besides just a random decision.
I figured TZP would be a good painting target after his gambit. Wolves may have thought that seers would go for him after his gambit.
Xiao and BDS, I'm not quite as sure.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 12:44:32 PMIn the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected? Wolf!Specs probably would have legit seered Oricorio, and from there it's a matter of whether Specs would want to throw Oricorio under the bus or attempt to win together. Depending on who Specs and Oricorio may have targeted for vote reduction, it's possible Specs' hands may be forced in the matter regardless (like, maybe he painted me or TZP and reduced Xiao's vote, so Xiao wouldn't be an optimal lynch if he wanted to win).
In contrast, if Specs and Xiao are wolves together, then I'm not sure if they would have connected by now unless Xiao made a bold move and PM'd Specs this phase on the assumption Specs is a wolf.
This is stupid. If we're w/w and Specs knows it he gets no advantage from bussing when any mislynch would be a guaranteed win (so long as we didn't crossfire). Specs claimed his result to me before anyone else, so why would he out that if he found out we were wolves? This is just illogical and is really making me question my townread on you
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 12:48:15 PMI'm thinking about why Oricorio would be painted besides just a random decision.
I figured TZP would be a good painting target after his gambit. Wolves may have thought that seers would go for him after his gambit.
Xiao and BDS, I'm not quite as sure.
Because of my activity, dyh. There.'s little reason to seer TZP after the gamvit which nakes them "easier" to solve.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:49:41 PMThis is stupid. If we're w/w and Specs knows it he gets no advantage from bussing when any mislynch would be a guaranteed win (so long as we didn't crossfire). Specs claimed his result to me before anyone else, so why would he out that if he found out we were wolves? This is just illogical and is really making me question my townread on you
i tried to throw you a bone and your response is to turn it back as a suspicion on me
I'm also going to take a step back for a second. I have a color check on someone, which gives them a 50% chance of being a wolf. That's hard data. Everything else is speculation. I really would hate to be burned because I decided to go against the probability and trust a hypothetical. I saw it happen right before my eyes in the Grinch game, and it burned the town. I'm going to go reread the Grinch thread and see how Oricorio responded to getting red checked by TZP.
Since there's no Instakills, Oricorio. I'll be around.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 12:52:49 PMi tried to throw you a bone and your response is to turn it back as a suspicion on me
How do you think that "it's possible Specs' hands may be forced in the matter regardless"? If me and Specs are w/w, we can win by converging on you or TZP N3 regardless of if Xiao was marked or not. I'm basically the one person here who can't be paired with Specs
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 01:00:03 PMI'm also going to take a step back for a second. I have a color check on someone, which gives them a 50% chance of being a wolf. That's hard data. Everything else is speculation. I really would hate to be burned because I decided to go against the probability and trust a hypothetical. I saw it happen right before my eyes in the Grinch game, and it burned the town. I'm going to go reread the Grinch thread and see how Oricorio responded to getting red checked by TZP.
Since there's no Instakills, Oricorio. I'll be around.
Not a 50% in this game, as I already established it skews somewhat towards the wolves as they can choose who gets redchecked
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:49:41 PMSpecs claimed his result to me before anyone else, so why would he out that if he found out we were wolves?
Let me reason this out for a moment so I don't confuse myself. In my initial post I sorta assumed that Specs would know you're a wolf, but I don't think that's a given. Specs seered you blue, which means that if Specs was a wolf he'd have to be the red wolf and blue seer, and if you were a wolf that'd make you the blue wolf. If he seered you blue, for all he knows you're a human who was painted blue by the blue wolf. He PMs you first to try and figure out whether you're the blue wolf or just a human painted blue. Meanwhile, assuming you're the blue wolf, you have to determine whether he's the red wolf blue seer or just the blue seer.
Meanwhile, Specs told me directly that he was a seer, so he can't try to hide that fact any more. He can't just hide and try to pretend THC was a seer, so he has to give
some result. If you're a human he's already told you his seering results, so he sorta has to commit to that.
For all anyone knows, each of you came to the conclusion that the other person was a human; hence why Specs had no issue revealing his seering results.
Hence why I asked the question of what the chances are that wolf!Specs and wolf!Oricorio would have connected.
BDS, if you're town and think Specs is a wolf, then unless you think THC is seer then Xiao has to be his partner
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 11:34:08 AMPMs received and read. [...] I can confirm that the apparent seers and seerings match.
Me too (still reading through everything, hold on
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 01:03:28 PMBDS, if you're town and think Specs is a wolf, then unless you think THC is seer then Xiao has to be his partner
Elaborate?
Apparent votecount:
- Oricorio: 3 (Xiao, BDS, Specs)
- Xiao: 1 (Oricorio)
(https://www.uwkc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Your-Vote-Counts.jpg)
(if it didn't, you'd be dead already)
Phase ends in a little under 4 hours!
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 01:06:07 PMElaborate?
Me/Specs is a hellword and the seers can't be w/w
Anyway, phone battery's at 3% and I won't be home for a while, so this may be my last post
Oricorio, you know me and my playstyle well enough by now. As I referred to previously in #183, painting my 'hedged' or 'contrived' reads as illegitimate because they look and feel different to those of other players here is, in my opinion, unfair at best and disrespectful at worst. If you like, I can respond to the slew of posts you've provided though personally I don't think there'd be much value in that.
what does hellword mean?
The way I see it:
- Specs/Oricorio is a possibility, but they probably didn't think the other were wolves when Specs revealed his seering publicly.
- Specs/Xiao is a possibility, but they probably weren't connected when Specs revealed his seering publicly, which means Specs either faked his seering on Oricorio (and seered Xiao instead and assumed Xiao was a wolf) and was assuming Oricorio wasn't a wolf.
- TZP/Xiao is a possibility, and if it is we're all doomed.
I'd like to hear more outside opinions (especially people other than Oricorio) to either back me up or tell me I'm crazy. :P
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 01:11:23 PMOricorio, you know me and my playstyle well enough by now. As I referred to previously in #183, painting my 'hedged' or 'contrived' reads as illegitimate because they look and feel different to those of other players here is, in my opinion, unfair at best and disrespectful at worst. If you like, I can respond to the slew of posts you've provided though personally I don't think there'd be much value in that.
This is just AtE. Weird, since I believe they called me out earlier for being too emotional?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 01:11:51 PMwhat does hellword mean?
Very unlikely/implausible/nonsensical world
2% phone battery!
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on June 29, 2024, 05:39:18 PMI did, and you were a positive hit for my color.
Obviously that's not proof that you're a wolf, but it's a 50/50 now. I don't really have any reason to believe one way or the other at the moment.
One last PM that may be important
Wait, I alrady quoted it. Whatever, it shows I knew about Specs's claim before anyone else
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 12:44:32 PMIn the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected?
In contrast, if Specs and Xiao are wolves together, then I'm not sure if they would have connected by now unless Xiao made a bold move and PM'd Specs this phase on the assumption Specs is a wolf.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 01:02:44 PMLet me reason this out for a moment so I don't confuse myself. In my initial post I sorta assumed that Specs would know you're a wolf, but I don't think that's a given. Specs seered you blue, which means that if Specs was a wolf he'd have to be the red wolf and blue seer, and if you were a wolf that'd make you the blue wolf. If he seered you blue, for all he knows you're a human who was painted blue by the blue wolf. He PMs you first to try and figure out whether you're the blue wolf or just a human painted blue. Meanwhile, assuming you're the blue wolf, you have to determine whether he's the red wolf blue seer or just the blue seer.
Meanwhile, Specs told me directly that he was a seer, so he can't try to hide that fact any more. He can't just hide and try to pretend THC was a seer, so he has to give some result. If you're a human he's already told you his seering results, so he sorta has to commit to that.
For all anyone knows, each of you came to the conclusion that the other person was a human; hence why Specs had no issue revealing his seering results.
Hence why I asked the question of what the chances are that wolf!Specs and wolf!Oricorio would have connected.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 01:14:21 PMThe way I see it:
- Specs/Oricorio is a possibility, but they probably didn't think the other were wolves when Specs revealed his seering publicly.
- Specs/Xiao is a possibility, but they probably weren't connected when Specs revealed his seering publicly, which means Specs either faked his seering on Oricorio (and seered Xiao instead and assumed Xiao was a wolf) and was assuming Oricorio wasn't a wolf.
- TZP/Xiao is a possibility, and if it is we're all doomed.
I'd like to hear more outside opinions (especially people other than Oricorio) to either back me up or tell me I'm crazy. :P
@SpecsFlyer17 @XiaoMigros @TheZeldaPianist275 Thoughts/responses to these posts?
To catch people up, yes I'm the blue seer.
Regarding the Specs/Oricorio pairing, I'm not sure why that's completely implausible. Is it just because wolfseer!Specs wouldn't want to out Oricorio's blue check? From wolfseer!Specs' point of view, how would I even know the Oricorio is the blue wolf? I have no true way of knowing whether Oricorio's blue check was legit or a painting. So why is our pairing implausible exactly?
Okay let me rethink this. Hang on lol
Post N2, seering, if wolfseer!Specs knows that Oricorio is the other wolf, there's no real advantage to me sharing the blue check, since it would be advantageous to team up. I did share the blue check, so at the time, I wouldn't have known that Oricorio was the other wolf. That more or less proves we did not find each other prior to the start of D2.
So why is Specs/Oricorio pairing nonsensical?
That's what I'm wondering as well. I wanted to see if Oricorio had a point and I was missing something obvious because I was tripping myself up, but Oricorio's response to the whole situation definitely rubs me the wrong way regardless.
Basically, the pairing is possible under the context that wolfseer!Specs didn't know Oricorio is the blue wolf.
In regards to the statements which pinged me, yes, I agree its not a given that Specs knows who the remaining wolf is. That said, judging by his play style, Oricorio probably does (hence the targeting me). Unlike Oricorio (I assume), I'd be fine voting for someone else if they are more likely to be a wolf, but I don't feel that way towards anyone yet.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 12:44:32 PMIn the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected? Wolf!Specs probably would have legit seered Oricorio, and from there it's a matter of whether Specs would want to throw Oricorio under the bus or attempt to win together. Depending on who Specs and Oricorio may have targeted for vote reduction, it's possible Specs' hands may be forced in the matter regardless (like, maybe he painted me or TZP and reduced Xiao's vote, so Xiao wouldn't be an optimal lynch if he wanted to win).
However, your original message does seem to reference us already connecting. That is unlikely, although I do agree that there may be some rare, specific situation where wolf!Specs would benefit from outing wolf!Oricorio. I haven't gone through the possibilities in my head. It's definitely more likely that the two wolves would benefit from teaming, imo.
As for the pairing options concerning me, I can see why you might believe them possible. By all means, vote me out next round if you think it's best. Just not this one lol
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 01:55:21 PMHowever, your original message does seem to reference us already connecting. That is unlikely, although I do agree that there may be some rare, specific situation where wolf!Specs would benefit from outing wolf!Oricorio. I haven't gone through the possibilities in my head. It's definitely more likely that the two wolves would benefit from teaming, imo.
I think wolf!Specs could be seeing this as a ploy to gain town trust, thinking town is/was (???) already kinda set on Oricorio as the next lynch option.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:03:43 PMWhat has Xiao done that people are townreading them for? All I can gather is that they have a decent tone, but is that really hard to fake? They hadn't responded to the gambit, accomplished little behind the scenes as far as I can tell, and are mainly sheeping the easiest reads; I don't see much in the way of solving from them. Contrast me, who proactively pushed the private seer claims to see if they overlap (though it seems BDS is getting the credit for that, even though I am the one who suggested it) and have been trying to actively lock the game down. Which one of us actually looks like the wolf here?
You've taken credit for many ideas that 1) weren't yours or 2) were the generic 'good idea' move. Whenever I've asked you to prove that said ideas were yours, you ignored me.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 01:55:45 PMAs for the pairing options concerning me, I can see why you might believe them possible. By all means, vote me out next round if you think it's best. Just not this one lol
Why? Because you're a wolf and will have achieved your wincon by then?
Of course! That's why I would just say that, publically, for all to see and judge
It won't be LYLO anymore next round and I understand that I might be the best option to let go next, that's all. Unlike a wolf I don't need to survive to win
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 02:39:52 PMOf course! That's why I would just say that, publically, for all to see and judge
Guys we solved the game!
maybe the real werewolf was the friends we made along the way
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 02:40:45 PMIt won't be LYLO anymore next round and I understand that I might be the best option to let go next, that's all. Unlike a wolf I don't need to survive to win
Makes sense.
I'm likely going to keep my vote on Oricorio today. TZP still has to vote. Assuming nothing else changes, Oricorio would be the lynch unless TZP votes for Xiao. Theoretically, it could come down to a KitB if that happens due to vote manipulation.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 02:46:40 PMmaybe the real werewolf was the friends we made along the way
(https://images-wixmp-ed30a86b8c4ca887773594c2.wixmp.com/f/1ff5c767-e642-4f34-9f9d-669d7afb3262/d3km2gv-6df3fb14-92c5-4a71-8234-4fb230e1bcc6.jpg/v1/fill/w_1000,h_754,q_75,strp/ninetails_and_arcanine_by_caroro_d3km2gv-fullview.jpg?token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWIiOiJ1cm46YXBwOjdlMGQxODg5ODIyNjQzNzNhNWYwZDQxNWVhMGQyNmUwIiwiaXNzIjoidXJuOmFwcDo3ZTBkMTg4OTgyMjY0MzczYTVmMGQ0MTVlYTBkMjZlMCIsIm9iaiI6W1t7ImhlaWdodCI6Ijw9NzU0IiwicGF0aCI6IlwvZlwvMWZmNWM3NjctZTY0Mi00ZjM0LTlmOWQtNjY5ZDdhZmIzMjYyXC9kM2ttMmd2LTZkZjNmYjE0LTkyYzUtNGE3MS04MjM0LTRmYjIzMGUxYmNjNi5qcGciLCJ3aWR0aCI6Ijw9MTAwMCJ9XV0sImF1ZCI6WyJ1cm46c2VydmljZTppbWFnZS5vcGVyYXRpb25zIl19.diayiWQ99RfYI5ndqt72ErAaAPPHTexv9O41cFSbtCE)
Approximately 2 hours until phase end!Quote from: mastersuperfan on July 01, 2024, 01:06:54 PMApparent votecount:
- Oricorio: 3 (Xiao, BDS, Specs)
- Xiao: 1 (Oricorio)
Votecount remains unchanged.
Another thing worth mentioning. I think it's beneficial to keep the votes as grouped up as possible to avoid being singled out as .5 vote player. If someone can be identified as having .5 votes today, if the other wolf is alive, they can eliminate them during the night.
Example: If TZP decided to vote for me independently and my vote total came back as .5, he's on the table to be killed N3 if the opposite wolf is still alive. Opposed to if he votes in the Oricorio group and the total was 3.5 or something, the wolf(ves) don't know who the .5 vote player is.
Does that logic check out?
Speaking of TZP, I'm with Oricorio on the idea it would be nice to hear more from him
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 02:55:06 PMAnother thing worth mentioning. I think it's beneficial to keep the votes as grouped up as possible to avoid being singled out as .5 vote player. If someone can be identified as having .5 votes today, if the other wolf is alive, they can eliminate them during the night.
Example: If TZP decided to vote for me independently and my vote total came back as .5, he's on the table to be killed N3 if the opposite wolf is still alive. Opposed to if he votes in the Oricorio group and the total was 3.5 or something, the wolf(ves) don't know who the .5 vote player is.
Does that logic check out?
Does it not reset every night???
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 02:56:31 PMDoes it not reset every night???
Rules say permanently.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 02:55:59 PMSpeaking of TZP, I'm with Oricorio on the idea it would be nice to hear more from him
Agree. He also does need to vote, and as Specs touched on, we definitely wanna make sure there's a consensus in case of vote manipulation shenanigans.
I'm doing my best here everyone. I'll respond more thoroughly and vote in the next hour
Thanks, I hope you can use the 2 hours to their fullest!
I'm back
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 02:31:19 PMWhy? Because you're a wolf and will have achieved your wincon by then?
Is it just me, or does this describe Specs's behavior this phase? I mean, the pairing involving me that they've most passionately argued for is... the one involving themselves?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 02:55:06 PMAnother thing worth mentioning. I think it's beneficial to keep the votes as grouped up as possible to avoid being singled out as .5 vote player. If someone can be identified as having .5 votes today, if the other wolf is alive, they can eliminate them during the night.
Example: If TZP decided to vote for me independently and my vote total came back as .5, he's on the table to be killed N3 if the opposite wolf is still alive. Opposed to if he votes in the Oricorio group and the total was 3.5 or something, the wolf(ves) don't know who the .5 vote player is.
Does that logic check out?
Meh. You gotta keep in mind a wagon consisting of four players includes at least one wolf. If we mislynch we're screwed >90% of the time so best to focus on accuracy here
Xiao is still wolf in all the most plausible worlds, but the one thing I can say in their favor is that they derptelled a bunch. I'm not sure whether they're known for faking that/not paying attention as wolf.
It may have been a mistake in hindsight to not really pressure TZP here. As things currently stand, the wolves seem overwhelmingly likely to win, so wolf!TZP isn't really incentivized to do anything right now. As for their claim, it wasn't difficult to figure out BDS, Xiao, and me weren't seer based on our SoD2 posts (Xiao flat out confirmed it) so it wasn't too risky a move, and while they would have had to get lucky with their color claim it's still a 50% chance. The main argument against that, though, is that a green check on the thread's consensus target would be more likely to shake it up, while if they're a fakeclaimer they'd probably want to keep the status quo. Still, a world where they are wolf seer can't be ruled out right now.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 04:24:51 PMIt may have been a mistake in hindsight to not really pressure TZP here. As things currently stand, the wolves seem overwhelmingly likely to win, so wolf!TZP isn't really incentivized to do anything right now. As for their claim, it wasn't difficult to figure out BDS, Xiao, and me weren't seer based on our SoD2 posts (Xiao flat out confirmed it) so it wasn't too risky a move, and while they would have had to get lucky with their color claim it's still a 50% chance. The main argument against that, though, is that a green check on the thread's consensus target would be more likely to shake it up, while if they're a fakeclaimer they'd probably want to keep the status quo. Still, a world where they are wolf seer can't be ruled out right now.
That's definitely true; as I said, a TZP/Xiao pairing would be worst case scenario for us. Best we could hope for is that one or both of the wolves have already had their vote reduced. At this point though, regardless of what option we go for, it's in our best interest to maintain a consensus vote. And with a half hour left in the phase, if we change the vote we have to start doing it, like, now.
Responding to points piece by piece to make things more digestible and keep conversation flowing
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 12:14:32 PMA couple questions for TZP: Do you think me/Xiao is a viable team? Do you think we're being too quick to clear BDS based on his reaction to the gambit?
To answer your second question first, yes, I do think you are being too quick to clear BDS on this basis (but he's still either my strongest human read or second-strongest human read). In addition to having played TWG longer than anyone else here, he and I were also talking about something else in PMs that I completely changed topic from to run the reaction test. It was a pretty awkward conversation shift, and I think it was probably very obvious to BDS what I was doing
About you and Xiao, yes, I do think you're a viable team, and I don't see anything would indicate that you wouldn't be.
A "consensus" between wolves and town is not an ideal outcome. Granted, if there was no crossfire we're kind of screwed either way. A bit alarming that we're missing three people this close to EoD, but eh.
I am here
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 04:24:51 PMwolf!TZP isn't really incentivized to do anything right now.
I know this isn't gonna persuade you in any direction if you truly do suspect me, but I have been unbelievably busy the last few days, Specs can verify. I don't, as a rule, hide as a wolf. Even if my post count has been fewer than others', I've been trying to make them all count, with the ISO analysis and the wolf fakeclaim.
derptelled?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 04:38:20 PMderptelled?
The idea that someone is less likely to be a wolf if they missed something about the setup/mechanics that the wolves would know
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 04:35:15 PMA "consensus" between wolves and town is not an ideal outcome. Granted, if there was no crossfire we're kind of screwed either way. A bit alarming that we're missing three people this close to EoD, but eh.
A charitable interpretation means that the wolf thinks they still have a chance solo but no chance if they obviously out themselves by going against the grain to try and split the votes.
Oricorio, look, if you're actually a human and you got painted, that sucks, especially with the Santa game as your last wolf game, but antagonizing us to get discussion going is a frustrating way to play (telling BDS he's being stupid, telling Specs to do his homework). Nothing they're saying has been unreasonable and it absolutely reads like you feel like you have your back against a wall
A less charitable interpretation, of course, is that both wolves are or will be on the Oricorio vote.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 04:39:51 PMThe idea that someone is less likely to be a wolf if they missed something about the setup/mechanics that the wolves would know
hmm, I feel like this happens to me every game though
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 04:41:29 PMOricorio, look, if you're actually a human and you got painted, that sucks, especially with the Santa game as your last wolf game, but antagonizing us to get discussion going is a frustrating way to play (telling BDS he's being stupid, telling Specs to do his homework). Nothing they're saying has been unreasonable and it absolutely reads like you feel like you have your back against a wall
BDS's idea that it's possible that me and Specs found each other as wolf going into D2 was unreasonable and would have required active gamethrowing on the part of Specs to be true, and I'm not sure what you're referring to in the second one. But given your own inactivity in this phase, going after someone for trying to get things going is not a good look. What else do you expect me to do?
If it's wolf!Oricorio paired with wolf!other, I could see wolf!other just going for the solo win at this point, rather than fight for keeping the alliance and sticking out like a sore thumb.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 04:41:49 PMA less charitable interpretation, of course, is that both wolves are or will be on the Oricorio vote.
Undoubtedly true. I will say, if I die today you better start solving in w!N1P2 worlds because that's the only way town still has a chance
Another question:
@SpecsFlyer17, why did you publicly reveal your seer color? All that needed to be shared in public was that Oricorio was the recipient of both our seerings. If Oricorio is lynched today, I supose it won't matter since it's info every living player will have, but I don't think there was a reason to publicly out which seer was which between the two of us.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 04:45:46 PMIf it's wolf!Oricorio paired with wolf!other, I could see wolf!other just going for the solo win at this point, rather than fight for keeping the alliance and sticking out like a sore thumb.
This only really applies to a world where I'm paired with TZP, as a big part of why I'm suspected is because of Xiao's and BDS's pushes on me today. Surely they could have gone after someone else or at least not had such a narrow solve?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 04:47:01 PMAnother question: @SpecsFlyer17, why did you publicly reveal your seer color? All that needed to be shared in public was that Oricorio was the recipient of both our seerings. If Oricorio is lynched today, I supose it won't matter since it's info every living player will have, but I don't think there was a reason to publicly out which seer was which between the two of us.
In fairness, I'm the only one who wouldn't otherwise know and I'm probably dying today
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 01:02:44 PMLet me reason this out for a moment so I don't confuse myself. In my initial post I sorta assumed that Specs would know you're a wolf, but I don't think that's a given. Specs seered you blue, which means that if Specs was a wolf he'd have to be the red wolf and blue seer, and if you were a wolf that'd make you the blue wolf. If he seered you blue, for all he knows you're a human who was painted blue by the blue wolf. He PMs you first to try and figure out whether you're the blue wolf or just a human painted blue. Meanwhile, assuming you're the blue wolf, you have to determine whether he's the red wolf blue seer or just the blue seer.
Because BDS already spilled it back in his thought-post.
I vote TZP, I'm not buying the being offline thing and I suspected you from the start. Oricorio at least seems sincere about his actions
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 04:49:42 PMI vote TZP, I'm not buying the being offline thing and I suspected you from the start. Oricorio at least seems sincere about his actions
Do you still think Specs is a wolf? If so, one of them has to be fakeclaiming from your point of view
Anyway, TZP, self pres and shit even if I don't think this vote is ideal
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 04:49:26 PMBecause BDS already spilled it back in his thought-post.
Re: that post, I figured it was info one or both of the wolves already knew whether Oricorio was a wolf or was a painted human so no use tripping myself and others up by using unclear terms.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 04:45:13 PMBDS's idea that it's possible that me and Specs found each other as wolf going into D2 was unreasonable and would have required active gamethrowing on the part of Specs to be true, and I'm not sure what you're referring to in the second one. But given your own inactivity in this phase, going after someone for trying to get things going is not a good look. What else do you expect me to do?
I think not being directly insulting is a pretty reasonable expectation tbh? That's what I'm talking about, not trying to gin up discussion. We can save that for the postgame though.
Looks like I don't really have a choice now, though?
Oricorio. Xiao, what did I just say that changed your mind?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 04:49:42 PMI'm not buying the being offline thing
I work full time and I am in two out-of-town weddings this week, idk what more I can say
I guess this might just come down to behind the scenes vote shenanigans. If Xiao and Oricorio are wolves the vote could very well be tied 2-2.
TZP and Specs aren't wolves together, plus the seering, so I feel confident enough keeping my vote where it is.
Both .5 voters would have to be on the "3" side, so among BDS, TZP, and myself.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 04:54:32 PMTZP and Specs aren't wolves together, plus the seering, so I feel confident enough keeping my vote where it is.
Are you confident in THC not being the seer?
Yeah. Tough luck and all, but there are too may ifs floating around to prevent me from just taking the seer hit that I got. Keeping my vote.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 04:55:44 PMAre you confident in THC not being the seer?
As confidence as I can reasonably be under the circumstances. If he was the seer, I don't think the wolves would've known that though, and would've been a lot more likely to not fakeclaim or even make the wrong seer claim.
I mean, we could get a third wagon running. Three wagons might actually skew the results more towards town in this scenario
Oricorio, it's not so much that we're confident THC wasn't the seer as that if THC was the seer, there's no way wolf!Specs or wolf!me would be able to get confident enough that was the case to stick our necks out like this
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 04:57:48 PMAs confidence as I can reasonably be under the circumstances. If he was the seer, I don't think the wolves would've known that though, and would've been a lot more likely to not fakeclaim or even make the wrong seer claim.
The wrong seer claim is a 50/50, though the reason for a fakeclaim has to be considered
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 04:58:08 PMOricorio, it's not so much that we're confident THC wasn't the seer as that if THC was the seer, there's no way wolf!Specs or wolf!me would be able to get confident enough that was the case to stick our necks out like this
By the point you claimed, THC was the only other person the seer could've been
Oricorio
Specs also said he claimed to me and BDS privately to get our votes/potential votes off him
Xiao
the phase is over do not change your votes
votes after 8:00:00 pm edt forum time will not be counted
on mobile so give me a few
TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and IceWolves:1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).
Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.
The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.
Humans:3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
Special powers:- Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
- Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.
If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.
Win conditions:- The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- Humans win when both wolves are dead.
Host clarifications:- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.
---
Players:1. Oricorio2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo27. TheZeldaPianist
---
Oricorio was lynched!True votecount (including burn/chill):Oricorio: 4 (BDS, Specs, TZP, Xiao)
TZP: 0.5 (Oricorio)
It is now Night 3. Night 3 ends in 24 hours, at 8:00:00 PM EDT on Tuesday, July 2nd.
Wow. N1P2 wolf confirmed???
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 04:53:55 PMI work full time and I am in two out-of-town weddings this week, idk what more I can say
Sorry TZP, please check DMs
4 & 0.5??
Well that sure is... interesting.
Wait help me out here. Only one player D2 had vote manipulation. Which means N1P2 was a wolf, or THC shot himself.
Or a wolf just didn't activate a power. But yeah, I think those are the options.
We are screwed
Unless a wolf purposely didn't chill/burn someone D2 to create the illusion that N1P2 was a wolf?
Assuming one wolf is dead (either N1P2 was a wolf or one of the wolves just forgor or chose not to use their power for some reason), that bodes well for us. Neither seer can die so we get... some possibly useful info I guess??? The wolf only has one vote versus a max of 2.5 human votes, assuming they use their power.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 05:14:48 PMUnless a wolf purposely didn't chill/burn someone D2 to create the illusion that N1P2 was a wolf?
That's possible but rather unlikely imo
Not seeing how we're screwed Xiao--we've got all players at full voting health and it's quite possible there's only one wolf left
Ninja'd
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 05:14:48 PMUnless a wolf purposely didn't chill/burn someone D2 to create the illusion that N1P2 was a wolf?
The only reason I can see for a purposeful blank is that they thought they might need the extra 0.5 vote to help ensure they survived the lynch.
Thinking back on it, it's plausible that wolf!N1P2 tried to play the innocent card and stuck with it to the very end (instead of claiming seer), hoping people would change their vote.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 05:16:33 PMNot seeing how we're screwed Xiao--we've got all players at full voting health and it's quite possible there's only one wolf left
Ninja'd
Okay screwed was probably an overstatement but it felt like everything was figured out and now its... not. But it's nice to have some breathing room.
Just a rules check, the rules verbiage says wolves can chose a player to chill/burn. So they can pass, correct?
Also, if we were at one wolf going into D2, doesn't that mean Specs is the only seer left whose results have any pull? Oricorio would have to have been painted by the Ice Wolf, since the Fire Wolf is dead.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 05:20:42 PMJust a rules check, the rules verbiage says wolves can chose a player to chill/burn. So they can pass, correct?
Yes. All night actions by wolves and seers are optional, and if no target is given for a particular action then no action will be carried out.
Watch it be wolf!THC who tried to play some insane mind game by shooting himself and then looking innocent when he only has .5 votes.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 05:18:15 PMThe only reason I can see for a purposeful blank is that they thought they might need the extra 0.5 vote to help ensure they survived the lynch.
I can do you one better: the best reason I can see for a purposeful blank is mentally flashbanging the remainder of the lobby, as we have been
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 05:22:28 PMAlso, if we were at one wolf going into D2, doesn't that mean Specs is the only seer left whose results have any pull? Oricorio would have to have been painted by the Ice Wolf, since the Fire Wolf is dead.
Yes, since I saw Oricorio blue, the ice wolf WAS alive N2. If a wolf died D1, TZP should receive no red checks since it had to be the fire wolf.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 05:24:36 PMI can do you one better: the best reason I can see for a purposeful blank is mentally flashbanging the remainder of the lobby, as we have been
You're saying a wolf may have purposefully skipped the N1 burn/chill to confuse everyone and potentially trick us into thinking there's a dead wolf?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 05:22:28 PMAlso, if we were at one wolf going into D2, doesn't that mean Specs is the only seer left whose results have any pull? Oricorio would have to have been painted by the Ice Wolf, since the Fire Wolf is dead.
Oricorio could still be the Ice Wolf and one of the wolves just decided not to use their vote power for whatever reason. But I do suspect that N1P2 was the Fire Wolf.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 01, 2024, 05:23:56 PMWatch it be wolf!THC who tried to play some insane mind game by shooting himself and then looking innocent when he only has .5 votes.
lololololololol
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 05:24:36 PMI can do you one better: the best reason I can see for a purposeful blank is mentally flashbanging the remainder of the lobby, as we have been
also very true :P
In all seriousness though, it's possible (no matter how ridiculously unlikely) they fully expected to live the day and did absolutely wanna try some tricky mindgames.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 05:22:28 PMAlso, if we were at one wolf going into D2, doesn't that mean Specs is the only seer left whose results have any pull? Oricorio would have to have been painted by the Ice Wolf, since the Fire Wolf is dead.
Right, I missed that
Alright I need to get to bed. Gotta think about this one.
I'm trying to figure out if blue seer red wolf Specs is still a possibility. In that case Specs would have incentive to make people think the red wolf was dead... I just don't know if the way the actions have played out would even make sense in such a world.
Blue seer red wolf Specs world:
- Specs deliberately didn't use his vote power, meaning blue wolf would've had to have targeted Oricorio. In this case Oricorio couldn't have been the blue wolf since he more than likely wouldn't want to target himself (I feel fairly confident saying this).
- Specs gave a fake seering result on Oricorio.
- TZP didn't seer whoever Specs did paint (if he even painted anyone at all).
- Two wolves would be alive which means they could just publicly claim to each other to win together and humans couldn't do much to stop that.
Am I missing anything?
...of course, N1P2 could've been the blue wolf and maybe Specs did use his power, not knowing N1P2 was dead. But then why would he release a blue seering on Oricorio if he used his power on him? Wouldn't really make sense.
Unless I'm missing something, I think Specs is probably the most human player alive by game mechanics.
Would definitely appreciate some sort of confirmation/double checking on this front :P
One more thing. Since Oricorio was the only one with .5 votes, nobody can die N3 unless a) two wolves remain, and b) they hit the same person.
Poor Oricorio. Got double seer'd, vote manipulated, potentially painted, and lynched.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 05:37:00 PMSpecs gave a fake seering result on Oricorio
I think everything you said is right except this. In bsrw!Specs world (lol), with the ice wolf alive and painting Oricorio, Specs would be telling the truth about his blue seering. I agree with everything else though, it requires quite a bit of tinfoil for Specs to make sense as a wolf now.
Gotta say, whichever one of you is the wolf (or two of you I suppose), kudos on playing a very clean game so far. This has turned into a real cipher.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 05:37:00 PM...of course, N1P2 could've been the blue wolf and maybe Specs did use his power, not knowing N1P2 was dead.
Wait what? N1P2 got lynched... so everyone knew. Mind explaining?
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 05:37:00 PMSpecs deliberately didn't use his vote power, meaning blue wolf would've had to have targeted Oricorio.
rwbs!Specs could have burned and see'd town!Oricorio while the blue wolf painted Oricorio blue but didn't chill anyone? Is that plausible?
Is it possible that Oricorio was the blue wolf?
redwolf!Somebody burned bluewolf!Oricorio and red-paint someone random. Oricorio opted to not chill anyone while blue-painteding someone random. That seems plausible right?
BDS already alluded to this, so I don't think I'm sharing anything that isn't know.
If there really are two wolves remaining, the game is practically over. They can publicly claim, agree to kill someone tonight, and have a a lock on a 2v1 D3.
If that doesn't happen, it's safe to say N1P2 or Oricorio (I think) was a wolf.
I'm not going to entertain the possibility of THC being a wolf. It's technically possible but I'm pretty sure that's a losing strategy for a wolf.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 02, 2024, 03:56:41 AMWait what? N1P2 got lynched... so everyone knew. Mind explaining?
He means "not knowing the other wolf was dead"
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 02, 2024, 04:34:50 AMIf there really are two wolves remaining, the game is practically over. They can publicly claim, agree to kill someone tonight, and have a a lock on a 2v1 D3.
This only happens if a wolf become convinced his partner is out there—otherwise he's sticking his neck out for nothing. We can still win in this case as long as we convince each wolf that they're helping to lynch humans when the day phase comes around
I'm convinced there's only one wolf left.
Quote from: Oricorio on July 01, 2024, 04:46:27 PMUndoubtedly true. I will say, if I die today you better start solving in w!N1P2 worlds because that's the only way town still has a chance
This to me could quite well be wolf!Oricorio setting up a red herring after seeing he was gonna be lynched
As far as I can see it here are the options.
1. The Fire Wolf is still alive. From any perspective, it could be any living player except me. Either through sheer forgetfulness or a desire to play headgames with no guarantee of favorable results, this player did not use at least one of his powers N2.
2. THC was the Fire Wolf. He pulled one of his fabled THC fast moves and burned himself, perhaps with the intention of voting someone at the end of D1 that no one else voted so that everyone could see that he was targeted N1, and maybe trust him more. This has the obvious downside of making himself an easy target for the Ice Wolf, who would see THC with half health and think "prey".
3. N1P2 was the Fire Wolf. Even though the strictly dominant strategy when facing a lynch like he did is to claim seer, he didn't. When he said "it would be worse for me in the long run to claim", maybe it genuinely is the case that he didn't want to deal with being counterclaimed—some people don't like the direct confrontation of situations like that.
All three of these scenarios are unlikely to have happened in a vacuum, but I don't see an alternative to them. I think it comes down to which of these you see as the least unlikely. Right now I think for me personally it's rw!N1P2, since choosing to not fakeclaim seer would seem to fit with statements he made about wanting to take a backseat for the game, but I don't feel strongly about that. I'd be curious to know if any of you have strong feelings about which option it is (or if there's a fourth option I've missed somehow).
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 02, 2024, 09:06:08 AMAs far as I can see it here are the options.
Yes, the only scenario missing from your list is Oricorio being the red wolf.
For that to happen, that means the blue wolf both chilled and painted Oricorio, and TZP is lying about the green check. I don't think that's likely at all.
A little less than 6 hours left in N3!
The problem I have with wolf!N1P2 is just how easy he went down. It's not like he still wins if the other wolf wins. wolf!N1P2's game was 100% on the line, and he took the defeat without even putting up a fight.
That just doesn't make sense.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 02, 2024, 04:44:24 AMThis only happens if a wolf become convinced his partner is out there—otherwise he's sticking his neck out for nothing. We can still win in this case as long as we convince each wolf that they're helping to lynch humans when the day phase comes around
Makes sense. There could be two wolves, but from a wolf's perspective, it's a gamble to claim publicly unless they're certain there's another wolf out there.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 02, 2024, 03:56:41 AMWait what? N1P2 got lynched... so everyone knew. Mind explaining?
What TZP said. Not knowing N1P2 was the other wolf.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 02, 2024, 04:23:30 AMIs it possible that Oricorio was the blue wolf?
redwolf!Somebody burned bluewolf!Oricorio and red-paint someone random. Oricorio opted to not chill anyone while blue-painteding someone random. That seems plausible right?
I think it's possible as long as Oricorio would have believed he needed the extra votes to survive the day.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 02, 2024, 05:19:40 AMThis to me could quite well be wolf!Oricorio setting up a red herring after seeing he was gonna be lynched
Maybe he didn't want to hit the other wolf and risk screwing them both over? I don't think he would've known for sure he would've been the principal lynch target.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 02, 2024, 09:06:08 AMAll three of these scenarios are unlikely to have happened in a vacuum, but I don't see an alternative to them. I think it comes down to which of these you see as the least unlikely. Right now I think for me personally it's rw!N1P2, since choosing to not fakeclaim seer would seem to fit with statements he made about wanting to take a backseat for the game, but I don't feel strongly about that. I'd be curious to know if any of you have strong feelings about which option it is (or if there's a fourth option I've missed somehow).
I'm also inclined to believe that N1P2 was the red wolf as the most likely scenario. Occam's Razor or somethin' :P
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 02, 2024, 11:15:06 AMThe problem I have with wolf!N1P2 is just how easy he went down. It's not like he still wins if the other wolf wins. wolf!N1P2's game was 100% on the line, and he took the defeat without even putting up a fight.
That just doesn't make sense.
It's possible he started his defense too late and just knew there was like 0% chance of turning the lynch around once the momentum got started.
I'm gonna to be running some errands later so might be in and out sporadically for the rest of the phase.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 02, 2024, 10:58:13 AMYes, the only scenario missing from your list is Oricorio being the red wolf.
For that to happen, that means the blue wolf both chilled and painted Oricorio, and TZP is lying about the green check. I don't think that's likely at all.
Yeah, I was solving based on the assumption that the seers have been truthful with their claims, but I suppose that's possible from your perspective if you are human. It still has the weakness, though, that Oricorio would have completely neglected to send an action N2, and I think that's even less likely for Oricorio than it is for other players.
Also for everyone's awareness, I'm catching a flight right around phase end for the second bachelor party/wedding this week, so my communication will be highly limited for the day phase. Can't be helped.
Also, thinking ahead for seer results tomorrow. Seer results will help us to lynch accurately...but on the other hand, if we are in the world where both wolves are still alive, each wolf only needs confirmation that his teammate is alive to publicly claim, and then team up and win. If the Fire Wolf is in fact alive and is just waiting for confirmation that the Ice Wolf is still out there (i.e. it wasn't Oricorio), and Specs shares a blue result, that's game. Vice versa if I seer someone red and Oricorio was innocent. Is this just a risk we have to take, or is there a way around this anyone can see?
I think green results are safe to release, but I'm not sure about the point you bring up. I suppose at the end of the day we'll just have to go for it.
We could try to reveal the results to a single person via PM before releasing them publicly, but that still has similar risks, just with extra steps.
Also, there's no way to verify the results given are correct. theres more than 50% chance that one of the seers is a wolf
TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and IceWolves:1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).
Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.
The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.
Humans:3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
Special powers:- Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
- Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.
If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.
Win conditions:- The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- Humans win when both wolves are dead.
Host clarifications:- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.
---
Players:1. Oricorio2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo27. TheZeldaPianist
---
Nobody died — for the second night in a row! Woohoo!It is now Day 3. Day 3 ends in 48 hours, at 8:00:00 PM EDT on Thursday, July 4th.
Not to continue being too trigger-happy with the phase extensions, but since the phase is set to end on the 4th of July (which I did not realize until now), does anyone feel strongly about extending it and ending on July 5th instead? (or, for fairness's sake, pausing the game entirely on the 4th)
Some people here are in the States and some aren't, so I figured I'd gauge thoughts first, since either way works for me.
If nobody objects to it ending on July 4th I'm happy to leave it as is.
I myself have no Plana on the 4th, but if others need an extension I'm ok with that.
*plans
No idea what my autocorrect was thinking :P
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 02, 2024, 12:07:30 PMIf the Fire Wolf is in fact alive and is just waiting for confirmation that the Ice Wolf is still out there (i.e. it wasn't Oricorio), and Specs shares a blue result, that's game. Vice versa if I seer someone red and Oricorio was innocent. Is this just a risk we have to take, or is there a way around this anyone can see?
If they found each other N2, I'd say it was game. But since they didn't (or it appears they didn't) and therefore weren't able to direct their burning/chilling to humans, there are still cases where a wolf alliance may not have enough vote power.
Case 1: Wolves hit each other. D3, the wolf team collective has 1 vote versus the town's 2. A wolf gets lynched. N4, one of the humans loses a vote, but D4 the humans can still win a 1.5 to .5 vote.
Case 2: One wolve got hit, one human got hit. The wolves own 1.5 votes while the humans also own 1.5 votes. It's a KitB at that point, and there are 3 options. First, the wolf with 1 vote is lynched. This results in a D4 town win, as the wolves will have .5 votes and humans have 1. Second, the wolf with .5 votes is lynched. N4, the town will be reduced to 1 vote total, bringing things to a D4 KitB finish. Finally, the human with 1 vote is lynched. The town will be killed off N4. The scenario where the .5 vote human is lynched is not likely, as the wolves will target the higher vote player for the KitB. Case 2 is not ideal for the wolves, as some scenarios result in a singular wolf winning, which is not grounds for an alliance.
Case 3: Two humans got hit. The wolves own 2 votes while the humans own 1. This pretty clearly results in dual wolf win.
Long story short, if we reveal seering results, two remaining wolves are not guaranteed victory. It depends on who they hit N3.
Yeah I'm fine to keep July 4th. I'm in Europe still, so not much festivities lol.
I'm fine with both seers revealing seering results as soon as possible. It gives us more to talk about, and any amount of forward momentum could be really helpful.
Unsurprising green flip on Xiao for me
Also a phase extension is probably worse for me, wedding is on the 5th
Gotcha. Since Xiao is European I think we're safe to keep July 4th as the end date.
From my perspective, Xiao and TZP are the two most likely wolves. Tomorrow I'm gonna try and wrap my head around which one of them might be more likely to be the wolf based on what we (probably) know about the gamestate. Will probably try to do that regardless of Specs' results.
If N1P2 was the red wolf, that means that Oricorio was painted and targeted for vote reduction by the blue wolf. Would TZP do that and then seer Oricorio (or at least pretend to have seered Oricorio green)? Would Xiao both paint and target Oricorio for vote reduction?
...actually, now that I say it like that, it kinda makes me trip myself up again and wonder if it's still possible/likely for Oricorio to have been the blue wolf. Why would the blue wolf paint and target Oricorio for vote reduction at the same time?
If N1P2 was the red wolf, Specs can be trusted 100%, and a blue result is either the blue wolf or whoever the blue wolf painted last night. From the perspective of the non-Specs players, the wolf has to be between the two non-Specs players.
If Oricorio was the blue wolf, TZP can be trusted 100%, and the green result on Xiao clears Xiao, meaning mechanically Specs and I are the only two players who could be wolves. From my perspective, that would make Specs a guaranteed wolf.
I feel like figuring thing stuff out could be key to making the right decision.
I need to sleep. I'm just confusing myself even more :-X
ONE MORE THING BEFORE I FORGET
If Oricorio was the blue wolf, that means red wolf Specs would've also had to have targeted Oricorio for vote reduction and put a massive target on him by publicly seering him blue. Specs did go to Oricorio about his result first, which as I'm pretty sure I mentioned before, could've forced him into revealing it publicly if wolf Specs thought Oricorio was a human.
...but, correct me if I'm wrong, he could've also just passed it off as a reaction test and faked another seering result to keep the person he vote reduced alive. But would wolf Specs take the chance of it backfiring on him then?
Thinking this over in my tired state I still think red wolf N1P2 is more likely (I think...?). If that's true, then Specs getting a green result would probably be a lot better than getting a color result at this point, since it would definitively clear someone. idk anymore
Quote from: mastersuperfan on July 02, 2024, 09:47:53 PMGotcha. Since Xiao is European I think we're safe to keep July 4th as the end date.
yeah I mean its 2am on the 5th for me anyway haha
Also I'm a little confused by all these hypotheticals, I'll need time to work through them
Well folks, the blue wolf is still alive. I got another blue hit last night.
You want to share it publicly?
TZP flipped blue last night.
First, this means Oricorio was not the blue wolf. That was a mislynch, successfully misguided by the blue painting. Oricorio, if you're reading this, sorry man.
Next, since the blue wolf is alive, that brings up the discussion of if the red wolf is alive. I'm in the camp that the red wolf was killed, either N1P2 or THC, despite neither making a ton of sense from their perspectives. If both wolves are alive, we've mislynched twice, and we're not in a good place.
This brings up the conversation of red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP, which aligns with the actions taken place. However, this means on N2, TZP did all three actions on Oricorio: chill, paint, and red-seer.
Painting Oricorio blue raises suspicion, and inevitably sets up the opportunity to push a lynch in the event the blue seer hit Oriocio. If the goal is to potentially push an Oricorio lynch, reducing his vote does make sense. That could explain the double target.
However, TZP sent me this PM in the final seconds of D2, titled "Insurance":
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 04:56:41 PMHello fellow seer. Xiao just privately told me his vote on me was a reaction test on Oricorio and that he'll change it back... but if he doesn't change it before the deadline and I die, you know who to go for.
This appears human. Why would dead wolf!TZP care about Xiao dying later? He wouldn't, as wolves are on solo teams. It could have been a message to fake looking human, especially if TZP was confident he would survive (and to be fair, it didn't look like BDS or I were going to change our votes). However, it was sent with 3 minutes left in phase. That's crunch time, and I don't know if TZP would be thinking about mind games at that point.
At the end of the day, TZP has a blue hit, and that's not something to ignore. Having the blue seer hit the blue painted target twice in one game would just be unlucky. Gambler's fallacy says it's still a 50/50 today, but that would be quite unfortunate.
Aw man that really sucks. Specs you're gonna vote who you have to vote, but I need to point out that a blue flip is less significant at this point in the game than it was earlier. It's highly likely that, from your perspective. two of the other three remaining players were blue last night. Please don't just execute me based on that flip!
My vote's going to BDS or Xiao, I don't think I'm capable of the tinfoil required to mistrust Specs at this point. Leaning toward Xiao because I think he would be more likely to paint me than BDS would.
Some possible end-game states, assuming there is one wolf alive.
Wolf is lynched: Town wins.
Human with .5 votes is lynched: We play on to D4. D4 will be two humans with a combined 1.5 votes vs one wolf with 1 vote.
Human with 1 vote is lynched: Wolf wins. D4 will either be two humans each with .5 votes or one human with 1 vote vs one wolf with 1 vote. Either way, the wolf will have 50% of the voting power (1 vs 1) by the end of N4.
Also, my previous post about the end game states was incorrect regarding case 2 with the KitBs. The wolves would win if they get 50% of the voting power, rather going to a KitB. I forgot it was 50% or greater.
So, in addition to wolf-hunting, I think we should also be thinking about who got chilled. If either of those two players gets lynched, the town is able to win.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 03, 2024, 10:31:24 AMAlso, my previous post about the end game states was incorrect regarding case 2 with the KitBs. The wolves would win if they get 50% of the voting power, rather going to a KitB. I forgot it was 50% or greater.
Actually, scratch that. The wolves can only win together if all the humans are dead. Although I think it's a moot point by now.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 03, 2024, 09:07:11 AMIt's highly likely that, from your perspective. two of the other three remaining players were blue last night.
This is correct. Since we know the blue wolf is alive, 2 of the 4 players last night were blue. It would be foolish to paint the blue seer, so from my perspective, 2 of 3 players were blue. A green result would've theoretically cleared someone, but then we wouldn't know if the blue wolf was still alive- it could've been Oricorio, so that wouldn't have helped.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 03, 2024, 09:07:11 AMbut I need to point out that a blue flip is less significant at this point in the game than it was earlier
I'm not sure I agree with this, however. The probability of getting a blue check was higher last night than it was N2, but the significance of it is the same: you either got painted or you're the wolf. Same odds as Oricorio had once the blue hit was revealed to me.
Does that check out to everyone else?
You're mixing up conditional and absolute probability. If it was down to three players (you, the person you seer'd and the person who you didn't seer), then it would be a true 50/50 from your perspective, and the blue seering tells you literally nothing since you can be confident both other players would flip blue. But there are more players than that, so it's the probability my blue flip is a wolf GIVEN that you can assume 2 out of 3 players were blue last night. Which is different still from the probability Oricorio's blue flip was a wolf given that you can assume 2 out of 5 players were blue N2.
Yes, it is a 66% chance assuming the wolf wouldn't mark Specs themselves
that is, 66% of getting seered, but knowing that you are seered, 50% you're a wolf. With Oricorio, 40% chance of being blue
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 03, 2024, 10:33:52 AMSo, in addition to wolf-hunting, I think we should also be thinking about who got chilled. If either of those two players gets lynched, the town is able to win.
Isn't it going to be BDS or you? i.e. the players most likely to be human?
Okay, I get what you're saying.
If the red wolf died N1/D1, then the blue wolf both painted and chilled Oricorio N2.
What does that accomplish? Well, it's a pretty optimal setup for a vote push. If the seer hits them, they have a color hit going against them, and the vote reduction could make it hard for them to escape.
I want to look at how each player responded to Oricorio getting heat after I went public with the blue hit. Posts incoming.
BDS:
Spoiler
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 30, 2024, 10:57:02 AMFrom your perspective, I can see why Xiao makes sense, but at the same time, there is a color seering on you.
In addition, I'm still somewhat cautious of Specs' claims. As I pointed out to both TZP and Oricorio, Specs said some things N1 which seemed to indicate he wasn't a seer (most notably, missing the fact that seering only activates N2, which is something explicitly spell out in the seer role PMs). Though he could've deliberately been trying to shield himself and make the wolves think he wasn't a seer, it does feel more like he was either:
1. A wolf who wasn't a seer and only decided to claim seer privately (to test the waters and perhaps sus out the real seers) once heat started picking up on him.
2. A wolf seer who didn't intend to reveal himself but felt forced to once it seemed like he was a probable lynch candidate.
Also, the fact that Specs got a color hit also kiiiiiiinnda makes it look like he's trying to target Oricorio :P
Is initially cautious of my seer claim. Not a lot about Oricorio, but more suspicious of me.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 30, 2024, 11:36:13 AMOn the other hand, Oricorio I sorta feel like your push on Xiao is you taking the opportunity to lynch someone who would otherwise never be lynched because of how human read they are. From your perspective, it'd be a monumental task to get either TZP or I to vote for each other (not to mention convincing anyone else), but Xiao doesn't have quite as much insurance because TZP has been much more proactive at providing reasons to see him as human.
Now he transitions to criticizing Oricorio's push on Xiao.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on June 30, 2024, 06:10:06 PMI'm confused by stuff like this when it's possible for one of the wolves to be a seer. I don't wanna accuse you of deliberately trying to obfuscate things, but it definitely feels like you're... distracting. Right now, from my perspective when it comes to you vs. Xiao, I feel like you haven't given strong enough reasons why Xiao over you. Or even which of TZP or Specs might be a wolf. From my perspective if neither TZP or Specs are a wolf, then the wolves are you and Xiao. If one of TZP or Specs is a wolf, I think it's much more likely to be Specs, leaving the remaining wolf between you and Xiao. Of you and Xiao, I think it's much more likely for it to be you than Xiao.
Definitely more anti-Oricorio as the day progresses, but still cautious of me.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 01, 2024, 11:36:23 AMAlso, Oricorio. Even without the seering I'd probably be voting for Oricorio. The seering on top of that just further cements that. If I had to rank people based on most likely to be a wolf to least likely to be a wolf, I'd say: Oricorio > Specs > Xiao > TZP
Votes Oricorio with about 5 hours left in the day. The suspicion list checks with how his thoughts progressed throughout the day. The "even without the seering, I'd probably be voting for Oricorio" caught my eye, though. Seems like an odd thing to say. Almost feels like something someone who planted the blue seering on Oricorio may say. Still though, most of BDS's arguments for Oricorio seem centered around his Xiao push, not the seering.
TLDR: Initially suspicious of me, but Oricorio's push on Xiao seemed to seal the deal for BDS's vote. BDS was the second one to vote for Oricorio, after Xiao. Definitely not a hard push, but suspicious of him the whole time. Thoughts seemed pretty methodical, and nothing indicated an unnatural suspicion/push on Oricorio.
Xiao:
Spoiler
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 11:14:38 AMI stand by my thought that its Oricorio and Specs
First thought about the situation is a blanket statement that he's sticking to Oricorio and me.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on June 30, 2024, 11:55:28 AMI'm also not sure if I've just forgotten your playstyle Oricorio but you do seem to be targeting me somewhat aggressively. This is what we call a boxed in wolf.
A very early vote on Oricorio, which is fueled by Oricorio's hard push on Xiao. Is this what we call a boxed in wolf? :P
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 01:53:46 PMIn regards to the statements which pinged me, yes, I agree its not a given that Specs knows who the remaining wolf is. That said, judging by his play style, Oricorio probably does (hence the targeting me). Unlike Oricorio (I assume), I'd be fine voting for someone else if they are more likely to be a wolf, but I don't feel that way towards anyone yet.
Doubles down on his suspicion on Oricorio. Claims to be fine voting for someone else, though. Could be legit, could be just buzzwords for wolf to say. I didn't expect either of their votes to change. Is
THIS what we call a boxed in wolf???
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 02:56:31 PMDoes it not reset every night???
Misses a game rule regarding the paintings resetting each night. Two ways to look at this. 1), By D2, a wolf should know their rules and be familiar with the role PM. This supports town!Xiao. In fairness, I missed some seer rules early, despite that being my role. 2) The urgent nature of this message suggests it affects him in some way. This supports wolf!Xiao.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 01, 2024, 04:49:42 PMI vote TZP, I'm not buying the being offline thing and I suspected you from the start. Oricorio at least seems sincere about his actions
We know this was a reaction test with full intention of going back to Oricorio.
TLDR: Early vote for Oricorio and never turned back. However, it didn't necessarily feel like an explicit push on Oricorio, but rather a reaction on Oricorio's push on him. I never really saw much evidence/thoughts on
why Oricorio should be voted. BDS, TZP, and I all voted for him eventually, but I don't think it was because Xiao convinced us. Still, Oricorio gave a potential wolf!Xiao a reason to vote him, and he did entirely jump on it without much indication that he would vote elsewhere.
Interestingly enough, Xiao never really mentioned the seer result. Kinda feels like wolf!Xiao would want to bring that up if he wanted to push the lynch.
TZP:
Spoiler
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on June 30, 2024, 10:15:08 AMI'm the other seer and I got a green flip on my target last night
Claims the other seer role.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 10:13:25 AMFirst things first—I buy the Specs seer claim. He's too conservative to nakedly fakeclaim that without assurances that a seer already died. He could totally be a wolf seer as well, but I don't think he's just a normal wolf bullshitting us. And the fact that he is the one pushing for the "reveal your colors privately" plan makes me trust him more. I agree to this plan, and I'm fine with BDS and Xiao as the escrow agents for those claims. Should I claim who I seered last night in those messages as well?
Buys my claim. Is this an attempt by wolf!TZP to instill trust in the blue hit on Oricorio and push a lynch?
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 04:41:29 PMOricorio, look, if you're actually a human and you got painted, that sucks, especially with the Santa game as your last wolf game, but antagonizing us to get discussion going is a frustrating way to play (telling BDS he's being stupid, telling Specs to do his homework). Nothing they're saying has been unreasonable and it absolutely reads like you feel like you have your back against a wall
References the Santa claim where Oricorio got away with a red seer hit. Says Oricorio's gamestyle reflects someone with their back against the wall.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 01, 2024, 04:52:38 PMLooks like I don't really have a choice now, though? Oricorio. Xiao, what did I just say that changed your mind?
Votes Oricorio because Xiao voted for TZP. He had to do this for self-preservation, given Xiao's vote.
TLDR: Overall a fairly inactive phase for TZP. Notably, he held off voting until the very end, and only voted when it appeared required for self-preservation. I'd argue this isn't behavior of someone who is trying to push an Oricorio vote.
Overall, Xiao had the most obvious push on voting Oricorio out. He did have a reason to though, as Oricorio was going after him pretty hard. BDS was suspicious of me as well, but was eventually convinced to vote Oricorio based on his hard Xiao push. TZP was pretty inactive and only voted at the end.
Quote from: Oricorio on June 30, 2024, 10:46:44 AMSo we know that the Seers are almost certaunly between TZP/Specs/THC (sadly, THC can't claim to us). If both TZP and Specs are real, that makes Xiao the optimal lynch for today. BDS is likely town based on reaction to TZP's gambit, and since we know that the seers can't both be wolves, then it's better the eliminate the wolf who can't give us information. That world would lead to a TZP/Specs thunderdome D3. Only problem is if THC is a seer, which would mean TZP/Specs w/w is still possible. Given that, I think both seers should still claim their colors privately to BDS.
I wanted to bring up this message as well. I think Oricorio's argument about BDS's reaction to the wolf gambit still holds true. The difference here is that red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP is a possibility and should not be protected because he's simply a seer- he may be the only wolf left!
Right now, I'd feeling led to vote either Xiao or TZP. Curious to hear more tomorrow. Fairly slow day today.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 03, 2024, 01:07:15 PMIsn't it going to be BDS or you? i.e. the players most likely to be human?
The wolves want a player at full strength to be lynched. So yes, I think there's a good chance I got the .5 vote. BDS is also plausible. Unfortunately, the more I think about it, that puts the town into a bind. Either lynch the wolf or lynch a non-suspicious player to survive (which doesn't help anything). Lynch a suspicious player and the town loses. We're probably going to have to lynch the wolf today to win.
Thanks for the detailed writings!
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 03, 2024, 03:41:49 PMRight now, I'd feeling led to vote either Xiao or TZP. Curious to hear more tomorrow. Fairly slow day today.
I agree these are the logical lynch candidates based on how the events have unfolded
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 03, 2024, 03:48:26 PMWe're probably going to have to lynch the wolf today to win.
I agree with this plan, anything else is stupid
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 03, 2024, 03:27:02 PMTLDR: Overall a fairly inactive phase for TZP. Notably, he held off voting until the very end, and only voted when it appeared required for self-preservation. I'd argue this isn't behavior of someone who is trying to push an Oricorio vote.
On the other hand, if Oricorio was going to be lynched anyway, I can see TZP not wanting to be seen bandwagoning and not voting for that reason. Whether that's indicative of anything I don't know
(a little under) 24 hours left in Day 3!
Votecount: no votes, all by its lonely lonesome
Make sure to vote! If you do, you get one of these:
(https://cdn11.bigcommerce.com/s-dl22izwaan/images/stencil/450x450/products/2611/12641/apit72stn__61038.1624984784.jpg)
(if you don't vote, then you get one of these)
(https://mario.wiki.gallery/images/7/74/Phantom-KingBoo.png)
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 03, 2024, 04:42:16 PMA'ight, I'm going for broke here, but after mulling all the scenarios over I'm fairly certain you're not just pretending to lie about your seer results. I'm the fire wolf and I painted Xiao red last night so I know you're lying about your seer results. I didn't reduce anyone's vote last night because I figured that if Oricorio wasn't the ice wolf (which I'm pretty sure at this point he wasn't) it was too much of a risk to accidentally hit the other wolf.
If you're indeed the ice wolf and vote reduced anyone other than me, I'm pretty sure we've just won. If you had the same logic as me and didn't reduce anyone, then, well, we can work with that. I feel like Specs could be convinced to vote for Xiao without too much effort, especially if I'm the first one to lead the charge.
got this from BDS lol
I read more as a genuine human gambit more than a wolf faking a human gambit, since BDS hasn't really been under scrutiny yet this phase
Specs can, uh, verify that. It was worth a shot to potentially trip up blue wolf TZP.
At this point I figure Xiao is more likely to be a wolf than TZP, and I think it's safe to say there's only one wolf left either way. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Xiao
See I had a feeling from the start it was TZP and either I'm right or BDS has played the most amazing game ever
But regardless it seems we will win, so GG??
Apparent votecount:
- Xiao: 1 (BDS)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
Not voted: Specs, TZP
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on July 03, 2024, 06:04:30 PMSpecs can, uh, verify that. It was worth a shot to potentially trip up blue wolf TZP.
Confirmed.
Specs, do you think there's any chance BDS is red wolf
I want to think about red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP for a bit. And see if that even makes sense.
First, I trust his red seer claim. No one counterclaimed, and no way would he risk fakeclaiming, banking on THC being the red seer. N1P2 explicitly did not claim seer.
This means he performed all 3 actions on Oricorio N2. But if you're trying to set up a Oricorio push, why also seer him? In hopes of find the red wolf and teaming up? That's a strange move if you reduced his vote. Furthermore, if I didn't find Oricorio's blue painting, then TZP has a green hit on Oricorio, which probably gets shared publicly. That doesn't help Oricorio get lynched.
Also, back to the insurance PM that TZP sent me late D2. "If I die, go after Xiao". Unless it's reverse-psychology, wolf!TZP shouldn't really care about what happens if he dies. If he dies, he loses. End of story. Especially with 3 minutes left in phase, this felt incredibly human.
Posting BDS' gambit publicly doesn't really prove much, as I think TZP knew it was a gambit.
TLDR, I'm not convinced the actions of red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP makes sense. Also, the Insurance PM felt very human.
Ninja'd by Xiao. I'll think about it.
I'm heading out into the sticks for a hike right now and won't be back for several hours, but I should be able to clock in one more time after that. I'm gonna vote Xiao for now. Subject to change. Specs, something I'd be curious to hear from you while I'm gone: in each of the three worlds from your perspective (wolf!TZP, wolf!Xiao, wolf!BDS) who do you think each of us would be most likely to paint last night?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 04, 2024, 07:59:15 AMSpecs, do you think there's any chance BDS is red wolf
If he is, we have two wolves alive right now.
If red-wolf!BDS exists, he probably painted you red. TZP wouldn't seer himself, and I doubt I was considered much for being a seer target. However, TZP said he red-seer'd you green last night.
So, if BDS is the red wolf, I think TZP is the blue wolf. Not a good spot to be in, and I'd wager the town has lost by now if that's the case.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on July 03, 2024, 04:36:44 PMI agree these are the logical lynch candidates based on how the events have unfolded
Also, why frame it this way Xiao? I've read BDS as human all game, but he hasn't done anything to truly clear himself. Why is he on par with Specs as someone above reproach for this phase?
6 hours left in Day 3!
Apparent votecount:
- Xiao: 2 (BDS, TZP)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
Not voted: Specs
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 04, 2024, 08:15:17 AMAlso, why frame it this way Xiao? I've read BDS as human all game, but he hasn't done anything to truly clear himself. Why is he on par with Specs as someone above reproach for this phase?
As you saw me ask Specs, I don't think it's certain. Ideally we get a wolf this phase and until now that being BDS hasn't seemed that likely.
I am open to changing my vote depending on how events unfold
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 04, 2024, 08:14:16 AMTZP wouldn't seer himself, and I doubt I was considered much for being a seer target. However, TZP said he red-seer'd you green last night.
This gets human points
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on July 04, 2024, 08:11:40 AMSpecs, something I'd be curious to hear from you while I'm gone: in each of the three worlds from your perspective (wolf!TZP, wolf!Xiao, wolf!BDS) who do you think each of us would be most likely to paint last night?
My thoughts:
wolf!Xiao would probably paint TZP, given the talk of TZP being a wolf.
wolf!TZP would probably paint Xiao, given I've been pretty human leaning on BDS.
wolf!BDS I think would also paint TZP.
Specs
Apparent votecount:
- Xiao: 2 (BDS, TZP)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- Specs: 1 (Specs)
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on July 04, 2024, 12:10:57 PMMy thoughts:
wolf!Xiao would probably paint TZP, given the talk of TZP being a wolf.
wolf!TZP would probably paint Xiao, given I've been pretty human leaning on BDS.
wolf!BDS I think would also paint TZP.
This seems pretty reasonable overall.
Unless you have anything else specific to ask me, I don't have anything to add at the moment. I keep trying to run through a bunch of different scenarios to try and make sense of things, but I keep reaching the same conclusion of "overall, I'm ok with leaving my vote where it is for now."
Less than 2 hours until the end of Day 3!
BDS
Apparent votecount:
- Xiao: 2 (BDS, TZP)
- Specs: 1 (Specs)
- BDS: 1 (Xiao)
TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and IceWolves:1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to
chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).
Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.
The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.
Humans:3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human
Special powers:- Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
- Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.
If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.
Win conditions:- The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
- Humans win when both wolves are dead.
Host clarifications:- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.
---
Players:1. Oricorio2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros6. Nana1Popo27. TheZeldaPianist
---
XiaoMigros was lynched!Since parity will be achieved by the end of the night, the game is called at this point, as per the rules.Spoiler
The Ice Wolf wins.