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« on: June 02, 2010, 06:13:25 AM »
So basically I'm going to expand upon the same things I said before.
So, no wolf kill last night. This could be one of two things: a framing, or inactive wolf/wolves remaining.
Let's not discredit the idea of purposefully missing a wolfing here, guys. It's a perfectly plausible strategy under the right conditions.
Let's say there are two wolves left. Given that this happened night four, there would have to be two wolves left for the strategy to be effective.
If the wolves wolf someone regularly, they are down to 5 players. They need to convince the remaining humans to lynch a human, though, and this could be a difficult task.
If the wolves don't wolf someone, they remain at 6 players. However, the lack of a wolfing is, theoretically, an easy path to lynching an inactive human. Then, the wolves would just need one more wolfing (easy, given that the guardian is dead) to win.
Under these conditions, which are quite possible, a wolf skipping a wolfing is the better plan. The question is, are these conditions met?
First, we would need two wolves left. I'm not sure, given the dynamics between players, if I can see two wolves left. But it's still possible.
But is there some one inactive enough? Jamaha is the most logical choice, but he does check the site every day. However, this doesn't necessarily mean he checks TWG every day. Another choice is askalice23, who seems to post sporadically. He would have reason to vote Jamaha, another inactive player, quickly for forgetting to send in a wolf pm.
I'm going to put a vote on askalice23 for now and see what developments happen.