@SpecsFlyer17 , can the Grynch change his color by guessing Santa's identity after Santa is dead?
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Quote from: Oricorio on January 11, 2024, 10:44:10 PMI mean, if TZP is the Grinch, I would see him pushing me a bit harder for being red-checked. Then again, maybe he thinks he doesn't need to? It'd still be weirdSaying something like this makes me more, not less, suspicious of you. If you push a player with a red check that makes you more likely to be the Grynch? What? This reads like trying to strong-arm me off of voting you.
Quote from: davy on January 11, 2024, 11:26:28 AMAnd good luck surviving this, BDS!
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 11, 2024, 05:20:42 AMAnd I didn't seer BDS because I didn't want to prove myself wrong.THC what does this mean. Why would you not want to prove yourself right?
Quote from: Oricorio on January 10, 2024, 02:17:59 PMAlthough there is one hole in this story: why did the Seer trust you if they didn't check you?The only player the seer had checked at that point was Grandma. I'd imagine he was afraid that the Grynch had seered him and wanted to make sure he passed along his knowledge in case he died in the night, and felt that an unconfirmed instinct was a better gamble than possibly dying without telling anyone.
Quote from: Oricorio on January 10, 2024, 09:35:14 AMMainly because I was suspecting you for your weak early game posts that were somewhat similar to last game but I saw a lot of genuine effort in the later posts. As for the audacity, a wolf saying they don't know they have a Seer ability after the phase update is pretty audacious for a wolf, even if it is a case of WIFOM.This makes sense, I suppose, although I disagree that a wolf would be unlikely to feign ignorance of the rules and roles for human points. If I recall correctly there were wolves who used that strategy to great effect back in NSM's Golden Age. I don't think it's impossible that it's what THC is doing now.
Quote from: Oricorio on January 09, 2024, 12:23:16 PMCome to think of it, their earlier attitude was a bit audacious for a wolf anywayAnd what are you referring to here?
Quote from: Oricorio on January 09, 2024, 01:34:40 PMWell, you were the last on the wagon. Just sayin'Yeah I agree with this, and even if we were to triangulate who is on the list, that only tells us so much about who the Grynch might be. And a 5-way KitB is definitely irresponsible lol.
Still, 5 people got votes, which would have been reckless if it got to KiTB. As I said before, there are ways to get some information about who is on the naughty list, but such methods are very strategically questionable when we have such little margin for error
Quote from: Oricorio on January 09, 2024, 01:16:32 PMSo, with math being town (as the game would have ended if he was the Grinch or someone else would have also died if he was Grandma) we're at 1-5-1. A successful wolfing (more likely than last phase, since the Grinch is unlikely to target the same person they did N1) would bring it to 1-4-1, and as we are guaranteed to lose two players tomorrow it would bring it at 1-3, which the Grinch can just wolf one and Naughty List the other. Even if Santa is still alive at that point, it would be an incredible WIFOM to predict who the Grinch would naughty list: typically you'd want to Nice List the towniest players, but at the end the Grinch can Naughty List the wolfiest town player, and if Santa tries to prevent that they could end up Nice Listing the Grinch.This is a perfectly reasonable observation, but it could also be a good bit more hopeful than that. The chances that the Grynch hits the players that Santa has nice-listed also go up over time. If Santa has played his cards right (i.e.: not nice-listing Math) he may well counter the Grynch.
That's not what concerns me most, though. After tonight, the Grinch will have had two chances to put people on the naughty list. With six players alive D2, if Santa didn't remove anyone from the Naughty List, a wolf-Grandma alliance would result in a KitB at best for town. We have to proceed carefully.
Quote from: threalmathguy on January 09, 2024, 01:17:09 PMDeath post:The elites don't want you to know this, but the real TZP/Specs/Math lore is that Math is the least real math guy of all of us.
Fraud math guy out