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Messages - Bubbles

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31
a scheme between brainy and the actual seer is most likely what happened, but it still doesn't make up for the fact that the BDS seer was a lie lmao. The real seer letting the "seer" make up a result based on a gut feeling is still v irresponsible, especially at such a crucial point in the game

also forgive me if I don't post much in the next two days, I have three v big exams and I'm slaving my life away studying. I'm prob going to be more popping in the discord chat and making small posts like these rather than my usual long annoying posts

34
^ p sure he was sayori? Unless story Sayori Ishizuka isn't role Sayori

and so uhh Thicc got replaced w Charu? who only registered two days ago?? really wishing i knew like anything about DDLC rn

35
nick miller : (

also ^ what FA said

36
A little summary of my thoughts from this phase, a sort of follow-up to my earlier suspicion list:

Olimar is putting in a lot of work (even a little bit of shifty business!! you sneak) and really seems to be creating and leading discussions. He's probably number one human in my book rn, any baseless suspicion I had that I referenced in my suspicion list earlier is p much gone now

Brainy had been giving me similar vibes to Supermarina, but did not have enough substantial behavior or evidence to warrant including him in my list. tbh I haven't been analyzing or thinking too hard about the new accusations against him specifically, I'm gonna do that later today and come back to it.

Raeko showed up and explained herself nicely, and seems to be more into the game now. Like I mentioned in my previous list, I never really got why she got slammed so hard. There's definitely a lot of other inactive players and I was surprised to see her almost lynched over one small comment Night 1.

Despite being called out multiple times and almost lynched for it, THC is seemingly still contributing in only small amounts and mostly regurgitating information from other players, though he is posting more now. I'm not sure yet if this seemingly indifferent behavior is an overloaded human move or a bold wolf one.

If Mael doesn't come in next day phase I am absolutely going to vote for Thicc, for reasons I said before. Though I'm not a huge fan of the sneakiness and working outside of the game, the info on Mael was still largely important and swayed me away from seeing use in a Thicc lynch today. But tomorrow?? watch out. maybe.

Also, posting and analyzing chat logs is v helpful, ty to everyone doing that. I try to check in on discord and skim the chats but not knowing the chat's atmosphere while the discussions were going on or like the speed of discussion etc always makes using it to make claims seem a little less legitimate to me. That said, it would probably benefit everyone (not just me!!) if short posts were made after important discussions were had in the chat, even if its just a log, so that it can all be centralized and pieced together more effectively



To anyone thinking I'm wishy washy or nonaggressive, idk what to tell you. That's literally just my personality  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯  someones gotta be devil's advocate and try and understand others' perspectives, and I'm PRO at coming up with excuses for people (wish there was an eyeroll emoji)

...That said, I'm on a sort of confrontational kick lately so I'm gonna put my vote on Dudeman. I didn't find his explanation for his davy vote satisfying enough to explain it away. The fact that the davy vote switched so quickly and so close to the end of the phase (~15 min from the deadline iirc) is very suspicious. Like I mentioned above, having talks in discord is useful but kind of detaches me from the context of everything, so you can see how from my perspective the sudden flood of davy votes is a big red flag.

Additionally, this is probably one of the last few phases where we could comfortably lynch for learning purposes (I'm not great with the whole TWG math with counting phases and remaining players but I'm sure someone is, please correct me if I'm wrong), and as said many times before Dudeman would give us a hint about raeko and I'm sure other players as well once we look back with hindsight. Roleflips allow foil-lynchings like these to be actually useful, and I think its worth it to use that strategy while we still can. Don't get me wrong, I'm suspicious of Dudeman in general, and without roleflips I would still be voting for him. The value in that extra info is just a nice cherry on top

37
yo relax. Its p obvious that he's clearly working something out. Substituting is presumably a three person agreement and I doubt its easy esp when all parties are busy with real life stuff

@Bubbles

Pretty sure Raeko is from FFR.
idk what this means but does it support davy's theory??

38
These are my suspicions that I mentioned last night; I'm posting them without any edits and if I feel something needs to be changed with the result of the last phase I'll go back and correct myself

I originally had these in tiers of high to low suspicion but it all kinda just devolved into general commentary whoops. Names are in no particular order
Dudeman
I'm swapping my vote to davy for reasons I discussed in Discord. In short, a dead human davy who we can revive is more valuable than a dead human raeko who we can revive. Also davy's more of a question mark to me than THC.
(Previous to this his vote was on THC). This is a little odd to me, since a dead human isn't worth reviving at all in this game (and I thought that was the general understanding in the thread). The main goal should be to save the revive for the Brutal Human, or if more relevant the Seer. Basically this quote is saying to me "I'm actually suspicious of THC but if davy's a human we can just bring him back" which doesn't make sense. Also right after this Brainy quickly joins in too, though he was in the discord when they discussed this so I might just be seeing it out of context

raeko
Is raeko from LLF? Hasn't posted since her one comment N1, not even to come in and defend herself for all the accusations. ngl I don't totally understand why everyone jumped on her so strongly, especially if she really is from LLF since that would make davy's explanation here make sense. It's real weird to me that even after almost being lynched last phase she hasn't posted to defend anything. Regardless at the end of the day TWG is TWG and you gotta post to play the game

Olimar
I was all set with a gnawing vibe-based suspicion on Olimar, but after I read through the thread and actually looked at things he came up pretty clean to me. I agree with him on his plausibility of an inactive N1 for the wolves, and his retaliation towards davy is understandable under the circumstances. Really all I noticed substantially is that he's been throwing a wide net of attacks since early on, as noted by Dudeman here
But still something in my gut is yelling at me to put him just a tinyy bit higher than my lesser suspicions

THC
Pretty much what everyone's been saying. Little to no original contribution, seemingly just going along with what everyone else thinks and voting after other people make their own cases, but I'm not fully convinced whether its just lazy playing or a generally inexperienced player. When called out by FireArrow for bandwagoning he immediately changed his vote to davy, yet another bandwagon. Before that he had put a second vote on my safety (lol) which is what's making me still lean strongly towards just being an inexperienced player since that's such a blatant no-no. Might bump him up to real suspicions if he doesn't step it up this phase

FireArrow
Mega wolf points here. Trying to look active without actuallly contributing to what is currently a really big decision for humans (potentially giving yourself away/killing off your partner.) Pretty sure there aren't phantoms so I have no idea what the point of your safety is this late in the phase outside of being for show.
This was a lil sus, especially with the strength of "mega wolf points." I think it's pretty obvious that a big part of the players rn are busy with real life stuff and don't have all the necessary time to give the thread a thorough read through. Especially when the vote was already so heavily weighed on one player, I totally understand why E Gadd wouldn't want to just join in and bandwagon if he didn't have the time he wanted to fully understand why everyone was voting for her. or maybe I just feel for him since I'm the exact same way rn lol. Overall FA's raising a lot of red flags but as a whole isn't suspicious to me, if that makes any sense. Maybe I'm just not used to his aggressive playing style lol

and did we get rid of phantoms??

SuperMarina
Similar suspicions as THC. Little actual contribution, and jumped on the raeko vote with little original thought or explanation. Literally said in their vote post that raeko hadn't posted to defend herself which is a weird fact to specifically point out when you're voting for them



Its hard to make solid cases against most people, as I can't tell if the lack of analysis and meaningful posts is an intentional strategy or just the result of busy lives. (and I know I myself am included in this inactivity bash, not tryna be hypocritical here) I'll vote later on once more people have had time to share their own thoughts or defend themselves

39
okay!! First thoughts, real upset that Khajit is gone before he could give out any items. It simplifies a lot of the gameplay since there's no more mystery aspect but that would've been funn :-( making a real big post rn, but due to nighttime shenanigans and paranoia I'm going to wait for the phase flip to post my main suspicions.

For now, heres some food for thought:

If Thicc isn't replaced soon, its a good indicator that he is being active, just behind the scenes and not something in the thread or discord. I can only really see a wolf doing that, since they have that safety net of their partners who they can talk with. Humans with powers could be working behind the scenes as well but would be unlikely to not also post in the thread to try and actually contribute. tldr its a lot easier for a wolf to coast with minimal activity; if i'm wrong noc pls bring in mael

also, this might be a real controversial thought, but I just realized it. How does an alliance work in a game with no guardian? Even if we unite the specials somehow, if they tried to work together to lynch someone it would just alert the wolves based on who's working together (even if they weren't outright with it, it wouldn't be that hard to see who is thinking the same thoughts and always voting for the same people). The Reviver doesn't need to work alongside anyone, since their only job is with the dead who have confirmed roleflips. I guess the seer could share their results, but that would lead to the same issues as above. Best case the Brutal Human could claim to the thread, but there would be no way to confirm that and it wouldn't stop them from getting marked by Monika. What little could be done with the alliance set up is overshadowed by the risk of the wolves connecting the dots and having a list of all the specials imo

40
@noc are the cardflips by color or role? OP says role but I just wanna clarify

41
I'm doing everything on mobile, so sorry if it's short or confusing or whatever I'm really struggling heree

The deathless night is most likely to be from inactivity, especially if nsm twg is the same as how I remember it. There's a fair chunk of players who haven't posted at all, and even those who have aren't totally discounted from being considered inactive (myself included, I've been reading and making general ideas but haven't had much time to delve deep or post much meaningful things). Day 1 usually ends up being an inactivity lynch anyway if I'm remembering right

People are putting a heavy emphasis on Khajit, but I don't know that I understand why? How would a human alliance be beneficial to him, any more than it would be for any other human? I mean sure he'd know which correct players to give the items for (since I'm assuming he wins with the humans?) but is he even that important of a player, since we don't have any idea what the items are even used for? I asked noc about the items uses and all I got was a winky face lol. Don't get me wrong I'm sure he's far from just a throwaway character, but he doesn't seem like the all-powerful role that I'm getting the vibe people are saying he is

Firearrows analysis of raeko is...odd? If that's the right word. It's a pretty in depth analysis of what was clearly a joking conversation that's happened a bunch of other times in that chat too. It seems kinda like grasping for straws to me, though I'm not sure why that would be beneficial to him this early in the game. also raeko's "too early" comment is odd as well, but if I'm right they haven't played many game since before so that could be chalked up to inexperience. It's so blatant a suspicious comment that I feel a wolf would have been more conscious and cautious to avoid.

...if I explained ANY of that coherently lol


tldr trying to summarize my scattered thoughts, I'll put a temp safety/inactivity vote on Thicc bc wya

42
actually jk it says cardflips in the TWG signup thread whoopsie

43
Sounds pretty solid to me. The Brutal Human plan obv would be the better one, but it kinda relies a lot on dumb luck. If we acted on the reviver plan there's still the same chance that the Brutal could still be wolfed

Are you positive about the cardflips? I'm not seeing it in the op

44
mm i gotta stretch out my twg muscles, its been a while!!

45
The Werewolf Game / Re: TWG C Sign-Ups
« on: February 14, 2018, 02:28:05 PM »
still innn but if this doesn't start within the week i might need to be moved to the substitute list

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