Messages

TZP:

Spoiler

I'm the other seer and I got a green flip on my target last night

Claims the other seer role.

First things first—I buy the Specs seer claim. He's too conservative to nakedly fakeclaim that without assurances that a seer already died. He could totally be a wolf seer as well, but I don't think he's just a normal wolf bullshitting us. And the fact that he is the one pushing for the "reveal your colors privately" plan makes me trust him more. I agree to this plan, and I'm fine with BDS and Xiao as the escrow agents for those claims. Should I claim who I seered last night in those messages as well?

Buys my claim. Is this an attempt by wolf!TZP to instill trust in the blue hit on Oricorio and push a lynch?

Oricorio, look, if you're actually a human and you got painted, that sucks, especially with the Santa game as your last wolf game, but antagonizing us to get discussion going is a frustrating way to play (telling BDS he's being stupid, telling Specs to do his homework). Nothing they're saying has been unreasonable and it absolutely reads like you feel like you have your back against a wall

References the Santa claim where Oricorio got away with a red seer hit. Says Oricorio's gamestyle reflects someone with their back against the wall.

Looks like I don't really have a choice now, though? Oricorio. Xiao, what did I just say that changed your mind?

Votes Oricorio because Xiao voted for TZP. He had to do this for self-preservation, given Xiao's vote.

TLDR: Overall a fairly inactive phase for TZP. Notably, he held off voting until the very end, and only voted when it appeared required for self-preservation. I'd argue this isn't behavior of someone who is trying to push an Oricorio vote.

[close]

[Oricorio]

Xiao:

Spoiler

I stand by my thought that its Oricorio and Specs

First thought about the situation is a blanket statement that he's sticking to Oricorio and me.

I'm also not sure if I've just forgotten your playstyle Oricorio but you do seem to be targeting me somewhat aggressively. This is what we call a boxed in wolf.

A very early vote on Oricorio, which is fueled by Oricorio's hard push on Xiao. Is this what we call a boxed in wolf? 

In regards to the statements which pinged me, yes, I agree its not a given that Specs knows who the remaining wolf is. That said, judging by his play style, Oricorio probably does (hence the targeting me). Unlike Oricorio (I assume), I'd be fine voting for someone else if they are more likely to be a wolf, but I don't feel that way towards anyone yet.

Doubles down on his suspicion on Oricorio. Claims to be fine voting for someone else, though. Could be legit, could be just buzzwords for wolf to say. I didn't expect either of their votes to change. Is THIS what we call a boxed in wolf???

Does it not reset every night???

Misses a game rule regarding the paintings resetting each night. Two ways to look at this. 1), By D2, a wolf should know their rules and be familiar with the role PM. This supports town!Xiao. In fairness, I missed some seer rules early, despite that being my role. 2) The urgent nature of this message suggests it affects him in some way. This supports wolf!Xiao.

I vote TZP, I'm not buying the being offline thing and I suspected you from the start. Oricorio at least seems sincere about his actions

We know this was a reaction test with full intention of going back to Oricorio.

TLDR: Early vote for Oricorio and never turned back. However, it didn't necessarily feel like an explicit push on Oricorio, but rather a reaction on Oricorio's push on him. I never really saw much evidence/thoughts on why Oricorio should be voted. BDS, TZP, and I all voted for him eventually, but I don't think it was because Xiao convinced us. Still, Oricorio gave a potential wolf!Xiao a reason to vote him, and he did entirely jump on it without much indication that he would vote elsewhere.

Interestingly enough, Xiao never really mentioned the seer result. Kinda feels like wolf!Xiao would want to bring that up if he wanted to push the lynch.

[close]

BDS:

Spoiler

From your perspective, I can see why Xiao makes sense, but at the same time, there is a color seering on you.

In addition, I'm still somewhat cautious of Specs' claims. As I pointed out to both TZP and Oricorio, Specs said some things N1 which seemed to indicate he wasn't a seer (most notably, missing the fact that seering only activates N2, which is something explicitly spell out in the seer role PMs). Though he could've deliberately been trying to shield himself and make the wolves think he wasn't a seer, it does feel more like he was either:
1. A wolf who wasn't a seer and only decided to claim seer privately (to test the waters and perhaps sus out the real seers) once heat started picking up on him.
2. A wolf seer who didn't intend to reveal himself but felt forced to once it seemed like he was a probable lynch candidate.

Also, the fact that Specs got a color hit also kiiiiiiinnda makes it look like he's trying to target Oricorio

Is initially cautious of my seer claim. Not a lot about Oricorio, but more suspicious of me.

On the other hand, Oricorio I sorta feel like your push on Xiao is you taking the opportunity to lynch someone who would otherwise never be lynched because of how human read they are. From your perspective, it'd be a monumental task to get either TZP or I to vote for each other (not to mention convincing anyone else), but Xiao doesn't have quite as much insurance because TZP has been much more proactive at providing reasons to see him as human.

Now he transitions to criticizing Oricorio's push on Xiao.

I'm confused by stuff like this when it's possible for one of the wolves to be a seer. I don't wanna accuse you of deliberately trying to obfuscate things, but it definitely feels like you're... distracting. Right now, from my perspective when it comes to you vs. Xiao, I feel like you haven't given strong enough reasons why Xiao over you. Or even which of TZP or Specs might be a wolf. From my perspective if neither TZP or Specs are a wolf, then the wolves are you and Xiao. If one of TZP or Specs is a wolf, I think it's much more likely to be Specs, leaving the remaining wolf between you and Xiao. Of you and Xiao, I think it's much more likely for it to be you than Xiao.

Definitely more anti-Oricorio as the day progresses, but still cautious of me.

Also, Oricorio. Even without the seering I'd probably be voting for Oricorio. The seering on top of that just further cements that. If I had to rank people based on most likely to be a wolf to least likely to be a wolf, I'd say: Oricorio > Specs > Xiao > TZP

Votes Oricorio with about 5 hours left in the day. The suspicion list checks with how his thoughts progressed throughout the day. The "even without the seering, I'd probably be voting for Oricorio" caught my eye, though. Seems like an odd thing to say. Almost feels like something someone who planted the blue seering on Oricorio may say. Still though, most of BDS's arguments for Oricorio seem centered around his Xiao push, not the seering.

TLDR: Initially suspicious of me, but Oricorio's push on Xiao seemed to seal the deal for BDS's vote. BDS was the second one to vote for Oricorio, after Xiao. Definitely not a hard push, but suspicious of him the whole time. Thoughts seemed pretty methodical, and nothing indicated an unnatural suspicion/push on Oricorio.

[close]

If the red wolf died N1/D1, then the blue wolf both painted and chilled Oricorio N2.
What does that accomplish? Well, it's a pretty optimal setup for a vote push. If the seer hits them, they have a color hit going against them, and the vote reduction could make it hard for them to escape.

I want to look at how each player responded to Oricorio getting heat after I went public with the blue hit. Posts incoming.

Okay, I get what you're saying.

It's highly likely that, from your perspective. two of the other three remaining players were blue last night.

This is correct. Since we know the blue wolf is alive, 2 of the 4 players last night were blue. It would be foolish to paint the blue seer, so from my perspective, 2 of 3 players were blue. A green result would've theoretically cleared someone, but then we wouldn't know if the blue wolf was still alive- it could've been Oricorio, so that wouldn't have helped.

but I need to point out that a blue flip is less significant at this point in the game than it was earlier

I'm not sure I agree with this, however. The probability of getting a blue check was higher last night than it was N2, but the significance of it is the same: you either got painted or you're the wolf. Same odds as Oricorio had once the blue hit was revealed to me.

Does that check out to everyone else?

Also, my previous post about the end game states was incorrect regarding case 2 with the KitBs. The wolves would win if they get 50% of the voting power, rather going to a KitB. I forgot it was 50% or greater.

Actually, scratch that. The wolves can only win together if all the humans are dead. Although I think it's a moot point by now.

So, in addition to wolf-hunting, I think we should also be thinking about who got chilled. If either of those two players gets lynched, the town is able to win.

Some possible end-game states, assuming there is one wolf alive.

Wolf is lynched: Town wins.

Human with .5 votes is lynched: We play on to D4. D4 will be two humans with a combined 1.5 votes vs one wolf with 1 vote.

Human with 1 vote is lynched: Wolf wins. D4 will either be two humans each with .5 votes or one human with 1 vote vs one wolf with 1 vote. Either way, the wolf will have 50% of the voting power (1 vs 1) by the end of N4.

Also, my previous post about the end game states was incorrect regarding case 2 with the KitBs. The wolves would win if they get 50% of the voting power, rather going to a KitB. I forgot it was 50% or greater.

TZP flipped blue last night.

First, this means Oricorio was not the blue wolf. That was a mislynch, successfully misguided by the blue painting. Oricorio, if you're reading this, sorry man.

Next, since the blue wolf is alive, that brings up the discussion of if the red wolf is alive. I'm in the camp that the red wolf was killed, either N1P2 or THC, despite neither making a ton of sense from their perspectives. If both wolves are alive, we've mislynched twice, and we're not in a good place.

This brings up the conversation of red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP, which aligns with the actions taken place. However, this means on N2, TZP did all three actions on Oricorio: chill, paint, and red-seer.

Painting Oricorio blue raises suspicion, and inevitably sets up the opportunity to push a lynch in the event the blue seer hit Oriocio. If the goal is to potentially push an Oricorio lynch, reducing his vote does make sense. That could explain the double target.

However, TZP sent me this PM in the final seconds of D2, titled "Insurance":

Hello fellow seer. Xiao just privately told me his vote on me was a reaction test on Oricorio and that he'll change it back... but if he doesn't change it before the deadline and I die, you know who to go for.

This appears human. Why would dead wolf!TZP care about Xiao dying later? He wouldn't, as wolves are on solo teams. It could have been a message to fake looking human, especially if TZP was confident he would survive (and to be fair, it didn't look like BDS or I were going to change our votes). However, it was sent with 3 minutes left in phase. That's crunch time, and I don't know if TZP would be thinking about mind games at that point.

At the end of the day, TZP has a blue hit, and that's not something to ignore. Having the blue seer hit the blue painted target twice in one game would just be unlucky. Gambler's fallacy says it's still a 50/50 today, but that would be quite unfortunate.

Well folks, the blue wolf is still alive. I got another blue hit last night.

[N3]

If they found each other N3

Typo. N2 should read N3.

Yeah I'm fine to keep July 4th. I'm in Europe still, so not much festivities lol.

If the Fire Wolf is in fact alive and is just waiting for confirmation that the Ice Wolf is still out there (i.e. it wasn't Oricorio), and Specs shares a blue result, that's game. Vice versa if I seer someone red and Oricorio was innocent. Is this just a risk we have to take, or is there a way around this anyone can see?

If they found each other N2, I'd say it was game. But since they didn't (or it appears they didn't) and therefore weren't able to direct their burning/chilling to humans, there are still cases where a wolf alliance may not have enough vote power.

Case 1: Wolves hit each other. D3, the wolf team collective has 1 vote versus the town's 2. A wolf gets lynched. N4, one of the humans loses a vote, but D4 the humans can still win a 1.5 to .5 vote.

Case 2: One wolve got hit, one human got hit. The wolves own 1.5 votes while the humans also own 1.5 votes. It's a KitB at that point, and there are 3 options. First, the wolf with 1 vote is lynched. This results in a D4 town win, as the wolves will have .5 votes and humans have 1. Second, the wolf with .5 votes is lynched. N4, the town will be reduced to 1 vote total, bringing things to a D4 KitB finish. Finally, the human with 1 vote is lynched. The town will be killed off N4. The scenario where the .5 vote human is lynched is not likely, as the wolves will target the higher vote player for the KitB. Case 2 is not ideal for the wolves, as some scenarios result in a singular wolf winning, which is not grounds for an alliance.

Case 3: Two humans got hit. The wolves own 2 votes while the humans own 1. This pretty clearly results in dual wolf win.

Long story short, if we reveal seering results, two remaining wolves are not guaranteed victory. It depends on who they hit N3.

This only happens if a wolf become convinced his partner is out there—otherwise he's sticking his neck out for nothing. We can still win in this case as long as we convince each wolf that they're helping to lynch humans when the day phase comes around

Makes sense. There could be two wolves, but from a wolf's perspective, it's a gamble to claim publicly unless they're certain there's another wolf out there.