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TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

Started by Kaiveran, September 21, 2023, 10:52:01 PM

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XiaoMigros

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 01:01:47 AMWhy do I feel like BDS only pretty much gunned for 1 person all day today and now turns out they were a blue cold target :^)
fr

also a#'s behavior has seemed pretty sus

ThatHiddenCharacter

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 01:01:47 AMWhy do I feel like BDS only pretty much gunned for 1 person all day today and now turns out they were a blue cold target :^)
You and I both know BDS has enough experience under his belt to play smarter than that. I highly doubt that he would actively try and get his cold target lynched, especially as the person leading the lynch train, if he were the blue assassin. There's definitely a possibility, albeit small imo, that he could be the red assassin, but I don't see BDS making that play as blue assassin. I understand Xiao agreeing with you there because they don't have as much experience to know that would be a bad play, but I know you're a veteran. Even more of a veteran than me. You trying to make BDS look suspicious for that makes me even more suspicious of you.
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ThatHiddenCharacter

Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 25, 2023, 02:42:36 AMalso a#'s behavior has seemed pretty sus
What about her behavior is sus? I actually feel better about her now than I did before. She's started more actively participating and providing input. If it's because she's sus of you, it's (typically) bad practice to throw suspicion on someone just because they're suspicious of you. More often than not, that's a very wolfy thing to do, unless you had already been showing suspicion towards the person beforehand. If that's not the case, then I would like to hear the actual reasoning.
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TheZeldaPianist275

Davy?? Seriously? Off of a vote rush in the last *3 minutes* of the phase??

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 01:01:47 AMI find lynching Davy day 0 in this way quite offensive given how useful he could have been later in the game.
100% agree, that's a slap in the face. Also, the game would have been a lot more fun with Davy around for later phases.

XiaoMigros

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 04:05:40 AMIf it's because she's sus of you, it's (typically) bad practice to throw suspicion on someone just because they're suspicious of you.
Thanks for clarifying, but yeah obviously it is

idk I don't quite understand why they would change their vote to davy and the way they did it also felt a little off, not daring to make the first move like TZP did

Toby

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 04:02:44 AMYou and I both know BDS has enough experience under his belt to play smarter than that. I highly doubt that he would actively try and get his cold target lynched, especially as the person leading the lynch train, if he were the blue assassin. There's definitely a possibility, albeit small imo, that he could be the red assassin, but I don't see BDS making that play as blue assassin. I understand Xiao agreeing with you there because they don't have as much experience to know that would be a bad play, but I know you're a veteran. Even more of a veteran than me. You trying to make BDS look suspicious for that makes me even more suspicious of you.

I mean sure and that's my struggle

But also rounding up votes and suggesting everyone vote for Davy 6 minutes before phase end when we've had 72 hours to make up our decision isn't optimal human play lol. He succeeded in getting an additional 3 votes lol.

I mean I don't see any assassin being so blatantly obvious about going after their target and it is BDS after all who is hard to read for being weird. Back when I played more if I recall right BDS was a typical early lynch for weird behaviour but now apparently he's a typical night 1 kill so stuff has maybe changed lol.

I'm also allowed to say things as they happen and if someone does someone suspicious im going to say it lol. Am I supposed to sit on the fact that what BDS did was strange ?

Toby

I think we should definitely analyse the last 3 votes that were placed, that being:
Math, then THC, then A#

Math voted to save himself which is fair, but as Davy mentioned he agreed with humans letting themselves die which contradicts. Before I start to reason his action id like math guy to give reason to that himself ?

THC voted to avoid the KitB, meaning he made the most import decider vote. I find this one most interesting as well considering he had Davy as neutral and math as his number 2 on his suspicion list:
 
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 24, 2023, 05:38:26 AMAlrighty, here's my general thoughts on everyone.

davy: I'm very neutral on you right now. BDS seems very convinced you're an assassin from what I skimmed, but I could see it going either way. The way I'll put it is that I likely won't vote for you, but I won't be upset if you get lynched either.



math: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you've only made three or four posts so far, right? And one of them was to vote and another was just to agree with someone else's rationale. I think you might be at number two for me right now. I've got my eye on you.

I also feel like in general, if you're going to vote between the veteran who's posted what 30 times this game or the newbie who's been inactive and posted like 4 times, it would also make sense to lynch the one that's least useful to town. But added to the fact he literally did say math guy was his number 2 suspicion but voted Davy, which saves math, I find that odd. He also seems to want to give BDS more respect for being a veteran but wanted to lynch another veteran over his number 2 suspicion so that's weird.

The benefit of assassin!THC doing this could be: math is his ward, davy was his cold target, or maybe just took the chance of lynching a veteran while the decision felt like it could be his to make ?


A# placed the final vote and by this time davy already had most votes. So assassin!A# didn't need to place a vote on davy to save any ward!math or secure target!davy being killed. It wasn't needed so she's probably a human just being a bit chaotic/impulsive and I think her vote on math was a safety anyway


Toby

I actually just looked back and I see now that THC swapped his vote from math onto Davy which turned the 3-3 vote into a 2-4. I didn't realise that THC already had a vote on math

So the idea that math could have been THC's ward is out the window

But I still don't see why you'd prefer to lynch someone else over letting your number 2 suspicion be in a KITb, I literally don't see the benefit to that.

BlackDragonSlayer

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 01:01:47 AMWhy do I feel like BDS only pretty much gunned for 1 person all day today and now turns out they were a blue cold target :^)
I get where you're coming from, with the mindgames approach of "BDS obviously wouldn't make such a stupid play as an assassin, so he's not the assassin," but I applied similar logic to davy ("an experienced player like davy wouldn't be suggesting such an glaringly obviously terrible plan unless he had something to gain from it") and we saw how that worked out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

QuoteI find lynching Davy day 0 in this way quite offensive given how useful he could have been later in the game.
Davy being the cold target sucks, but I think given the whole fiasco early in the game, I feel like davy would've just a tripping point later in the game regardless (and I know you probably wouldn't agree given that I don't think you were especially suspicious of his behavior).

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on September 25, 2023, 04:05:40 AMWhat about her behavior is sus? I actually feel better about her now than I did before. She's started more actively participating and providing input. If it's because she's sus of you, it's (typically) bad practice to throw suspicion on someone just because they're suspicious of you. More often than not, that's a very wolfy thing to do, unless you had already been showing suspicion towards the person beforehand. If that's not the case, then I would like to hear the actual reasoning.
imo, she's giving off huge "first-time wolf syndrome" vibes, where she's unintentionally cracking under the pressure of being a wolf as a newer player—especially so with how much potentially rests on each assassin's shoulders.

Though I do agree that Xiao parroting the suspicion (and framing it as an original thought, and not saying something like "I agree with BDS/Specs that A#'s behavior toward the end of the phase was increasingly bizarre") after it's already been said is a bit odd. Perhaps Xiao is the red assassin (perhaps believing, like I did, that davy was much more likely to be an assassin) and A# is the red cold target, and Xiao is hoping to play catch-up with the blue assassin by once again getting on a promising lynch early.
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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BlackDragonSlayer

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 07:27:27 AMBut also rounding up votes and suggesting everyone vote for Davy 6 minutes before phase end when we've had 72 hours to make up our decision isn't optimal human play lol. He succeeded in getting an additional 3 votes lol.
I tried getting people to vote for davy earlier in the phase so we could avoid the exact situation that happened. Several hours before the end of the phase I tried to get people to change their votes to davy by pushing against the mathguy lynch. I returned to the thread roughly an hour before phase end and tried to get people to change their votes to davy to avoid a KitB or last-minute vote change. People did not change their votes until right before the end of the phase, and TWGers are infamous for doing.

I went after someone whose behavior I thought indicated an assassin who made a bold gambit early (not expecting nearly as much pushback as he ended up getting), and when put up against I lynch I thought was objectively worse, I continued to advocate for my suspicions.

Say what you will, but I'm consistent. :P

QuoteI mean I don't see any assassin being so blatantly obvious about going after their target and it is BDS after all who is hard to read for being weird. Back when I played more if I recall right BDS was a typical early lynch for weird behaviour but now apparently he's a typical night 1 kill so stuff has maybe changed lol.
I don't have a numerical breakdown, but IIRC most of the times I was lynched early, I was human. But by virtue of gradually becoming the most veteran player around, me being killed N1 became even more likely of a probability.

QuoteI'm also allowed to say things as they happen and if someone does someone suspicious im going to say it lol. Am I supposed to sit on the fact that what BDS did was strange ?
Your initial reaction is fair, and I don't hold it against you.
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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A# Minor

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 09:50:39 AMimo, she's giving off huge "first-time wolf syndrome" vibes, where she's unintentionally cracking under the pressure of being a wolf as a newer player—especially so with how much potentially rests on each assassin's shoulders.
I have to admit that you're not wrong, I've reread some of my posts and they can come across that way (and I'm actually not too sure why) :P

QuoteThough I do agree that Xiao parroting the suspicion (and framing it as an original thought, and not saying something like "I agree with BDS/Specs that A#'s behavior toward the end of the phase was increasingly bizarre") after it's already been said is a bit odd. Perhaps Xiao is the red assassin (perhaps believing, like I did, that davy was much more likely to be an assassin) and A# is the red cold target, and Xiao is hoping to play catch-up with the blue assassin by once again getting on a promising lynch early.
... well, that's isn't impossible, I did find that strange as well. but then again, there's always the possibility of "xiao just being xiao" ...


I'd also like to mention that I was ninja'd while trying to change my vote. if I had seen THC's post, I wouldn't have voted davy as well :P
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BlackDragonSlayer

Quote from: Toby on September 25, 2023, 07:43:21 AMI also feel like in general, if you're going to vote between the veteran who's posted what 30 times this game or the newbie who's been inactive and posted like 4 times, it would also make sense to lynch the one that's least useful to town. But added to the fact he literally did say math guy was his number 2 suspicion but voted Davy, which saves math, I find that odd. He also seems to want to give BDS more respect for being a veteran but wanted to lynch another veteran over his number 2 suspicion so that's weird.

The benefit of assassin!THC doing this could be: math is his ward, davy was his cold target, or maybe just took the chance of lynching a veteran while the decision felt like it could be his to make ?
THC's behavior is glaringly suspicious, there's no doubt about that, but my worry is that he's acting too obviously suspicious. He's unapologetically going full throttle down the route of "I'm doing suspicious stuff and I know the stuff I'm doing is suspicious" that I can't help but feel he's deliberately trying to get himself lynched—maybe he's doing what TZP is doing and intentionally trying to make himself a target because he knows he isn't a hot target (and given his strange behavior toward me in PMs, maybe he's hoping he's actually a ward), or maybe he's doing crazy reverse psychology as an assassin to try and get the other assassin to avoid night killing him and avoid lynching by just confusing the hell out of everybody.

Regardless, I don't think he's doing optimal town play.
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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BlackDragonSlayer

Quote from: A# Minor on September 25, 2023, 10:06:59 AMI'd also like to mention that I was ninja'd while trying to change my vote. if I had seen THC's post, I wouldn't have voted davy as well :P
Considering that the forum alerts you when someone else has made a post in the same thread, I have my doubts. This is the second time you've used the "I didn't see someone's vote" excuse. The first time was somewhat believable, but this time, not so much.

There's also the fact that you had the opportunity to change your vote at least 5+ minutes in advance and didn't until the very last moment.
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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BlackDragonSlayer

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 10:11:03 AMThere's also the fact that you had the opportunity to change your vote at least 5+ minutes in advance and didn't until the very last moment.
Even if you genuinely didn't see THC's post, I feel there was a good reason you waited until the literal last minute (nay, last seconds!!!) to vote—perhaps looking to use the excuse of how you were under sudden pressure and just spontaneously changed your vote to try and avoid a KitB.
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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XiaoMigros

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 25, 2023, 09:50:39 AMThough I do agree that Xiao parroting the suspicion (and framing it as an original thought, and not saying something like "I agree with BDS/Specs that A#'s behavior toward the end of the phase was increasingly bizarre") after it's already been said is a bit odd.
???

I like to come to my own conclusions and not mindlessly tag on to the group