TWG LXXXII: File Island

[Bubbles]

I turned blue and have been blue since the end of night 2

[Brawler4Ever]

Okay, thank you.

When I turned into Leomon, it was at the end of Night 2. I didn't have the option to negate anyone's power during that phase. Did you have the ability to vigi anyone during Night 2, Bubbles? I'm thinking that the answer is no.

Scenario 2 could be possible because Dudeman could have gotten the number of blues on night 2 and just counted up to day 3. If he was told there were 2 blues he could have just subtracted Olimar and BDS after they died (and not needed the update on night 3)

This wouldn't be correct then. The wolf Psychic wouldn't have known how many blues there were during Night 2. I negated Dudeman during Night 3, and if he is the Psychic, he wouldn't have the number of blues, and he wouldn't get them until after fank mentioned that there was one blue left (i.e. at the end of Night 4, when fank was already dead). So if Dudeman is the Psychic, then fank only would have known about me being blue when he died.

If FANK was the Psychic, then that's a completely different train of thought that I need to figure out.

[Bubbles]

I rethought that and realized that it can't be true either. The wolf psychic also evolved at the end of night 2, meaning that during night 2 they did not have their psychic abilities. Basically, if dudeman is the psychic wolf he never should have gotten any info until night 4 (and was never able to tell fank anything)

Davy, if the wolf psychic evolves at the end of a night phase do they still get the color reading for that night (even though they technically weren't a psychic that phase)

[davy]

I rethought that and realized that it can't be true either. The wolf psychic also evolved at the end of night 2, meaning that during night 2 they did not have their psychic abilities. Basically, if dudeman is the psychic wolf he never should have gotten any info until night 4 (and was never able to tell fank anything)

Davy, if the wolf psychic evolves at the end of a night phase do they still get the color reading for that night (even though they technically weren't a psychic that phase)

If Kunemon digivolves into Kuwagamon during the night he is not told the number of blues in the game. If Kuwagamon digivolves into HerculesKabuterimon during the night he is only told the number of blues in the game and not the role names.

[Bubbles]

Nice. So dudeman couldn't have been the psychic if fank knew how many blues remained. Dudeman was never told how many blues there was (and if he was, there would have been 2 anyway). If brawler or fank was the psychic, they would have been told that two remained N3, then subtracted BDS when he was lynched to leave one.

Fank didn't make that statement until the othe wolf has already claimed to him, so it's impossible to tell whether he got his information from the other wolf or Davy.

The partners are either:
Fank (psychic), Dudeman (x2 vote)
Fank (x2 vote), Brawler (psychic)
Fank (psychic), Brawler (x2 vote)

[Brawler4Ever]

This is what the end of Night 3 looked like.

1. Olimar12345
2. Latios212
3. Fank009
4. Brawler4Ever
5. BlackDragonSlayer
6. Dudeman
7. FireArrow
8. Dude
9. NocturneOfShadow
10. Bubbles

If Fank was the phsychic, he would have seen either 2 or 3 blues. My color is purple because I'm claiming to be blue, but that's disputed. Everybody else is claiming to be green at the end of Night 3, and that doesn't affect the results of the Psychic, so their color above remains unchanged. BDS died on Day 3, removing one number from Fank's total.

And this is where things get complicated.

Let's assume that I am the wolf:

Spoiler

In this case, Fank sees that there's two blues on Night 3. BDS dies, leaving one blue behind. Latios wouldn't become a blue until the end of the phase in which Fank made this announcement, so it's not possible for Fank to be referencing Latios. Dudeman would be Shellmon and I would be a wolf. The only explanation was that he was referencing Bubbles, but he didn't know that Bubbles was the vigi. Since Bubbles was the vigi, Fank died.

[close]

If Dudeman is the wolf:

Spoiler

Fank would see that there are 3 blues remaining on Night 3. BDS dies, leaving just me and Bubbles. Knowing that Latios couldn't be a wolf, fank knew that both Bubbles and I were the blues. At this point, Fank lies about his results in order to create confusion. By saying that there's only 1 blue remaining, it undermines my claim while proving Dudeman's. If Bubbles turned out to be the vigi, Fank's word would be used against me, since Bubbles was obviously the only blue present at the time of Night 3.

[close]

I have more to say, but I'm unable to say it right now. I don't believe that it's out of the question that Fank never had the results of the Psychic, so it's entirely possible that Dudeman could be the Psychic. Hence his "you have one blue left."

I'll finish my thoughts as soon as I can.

[Brawler4Ever]

Of the many possible scenarios, I believe that the most likely scenario is that Fank is the Psychic, and Dudeman is Betamon. Nothing feels right about Fank's "farewell." It's hard to tell if he was taunting us or inviting us to vigi him. From what I can see, he knew that if a vigi was alive, he should be targeted, rather than Betamon. So he made it impossible for the vigi not to hit him.

[Latios212]

Still processing but on chat for when the time comes.

[Latios212]

Dudeman, Brawler, yoohoo, we're in chat now.

[Bubbles]

Another point against Brawler for when you wake up Latios:

During the Day 2 lynch (when Dude was lynched), the x2 wolf vote was in play. The wolf who just got that power from evolving the night before would have to play carefully and not create an insta that would give themselves away. Brawler voted for Dudeman at first, but then ended up removing his vote quickly after and never placing another one at all for the rest of the phase. It's not a strong case, but that would be the smart move for a wolf who wasn't trying to get blamed for an unintentional insta

I mentioned this in the chat too, but I'll say it again (since I think we lost the log). Of the two of them, whichever was the wolf wouldn't want to lynch their partner immediately. As soon as the human of the duo was lynched, it would be plainly obvious who the real wolf was and basically seal their death (i.e. what happened with fank). Dudeman voted for Brawler both phases (except when he switched to fank at the end of last phase), while Brawler only voted for Dudeman once which he quickly removed. The human of the two would be pushing as hard as they could to lynch the other player because they know that they're the real wolf

[Latios212]

Woo boy this is going to be a nightmare to type out on my phone so bear with me.

Point 1: I see what you're getting at but we were nowhere close to an insta on Dudeman Brawler was the first one to vote and it seems he retracted it because of Jiji claiming (there wasn't really any way to know that that was going to happen so it really doesn't look like he was planning to retract it)

Give me a bit to lose some sleep over point 2 [emoji14]

[Latios212]

Sounds good to me.
Brawler4Ever

[Latios212]

Fank. BDS has won me over.

These couple of posts sure don't seem to me like "pushing hard to lynch Brawler". On the contrary, it just seems like a go-with-the-flow kind of attitude, as in the first case he was just following Brawler's logic about them making a case against each other (looks like Brawler was the one to call out Dudeman first)

[Latios212]

I can't read every single post right now, but wasn't Dudeman the only one besides BDS to vote for Fank? If so there was never any real danger in his partner being lynched and he could easily have just voted Fank for human points later on.

[Latios212]

Aww gee I'm sorry it looks like I'm disregarding your posts :c but the more I look into it the wolfier Dudeman seems. Thoughts?