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Are you guys still confident that NoS is a wolf after he just shot himself?

[Bird]

Also, Bird.

Nocturne is still my top choice for shotgun.

Couldnt we have organized one now, before you get lynched and then have select two people and make them send votes? Having you as a third seerer doesnt actually do much, due to the fact that we've pretty much gotten you confirmed. If the others abstain from voting then, the plan should still work as intended, no?

Oh. Yeah, I didn't think of that. There's still a few problems with the plan (i.e. the seering works by drawing rather than majority, so if the wolves target someone else, it still won't work) but it sounds like something good for now.

As this phase progresses, I'll try to identify some really human-seeming players to target a suspicious player this night phase, and everybody else can not send in a vote. Currently, I'm thinking three people should be enough to influence the seer target.

Well Sqwerrels, unfortunately we can't do both the seer plan and the lynching me this phase plan this phase. Since if I'm lynched, I'm not going to be able to organize a group of trustworthy players to get someone seered. I think my preference would be to be lynched this phase, then do the seer thing on night 4 once I've been brought back on night 3.

And I'm actually having second thoughts on the Nocturne thing. I mean, it would be a kind of obvious mistake for a wolf to make. Someone says so-and-so is definitely going to be seered, and you're one of the few players who knows that information... and then you wolf him? It would be a pretty stupid mistake to make, and I'm honestly quite surprised that nobody has defended Nocturne at this point.

I don't know if I'm going to come up with a better suspicion (BDS maybe?) before the end of the phase though.

AwesomeYears -> the_last_sheikah
Latios212 -> Latios212
BlackDragonSlayer -> the_last_sheikah
NocturneOfShadow -> Latios212
Bird -> Latios212
Yugi -> Maestro
MaestroUGC -> Bird
the_last_sheikah -> the_last_sheikah
Sqwerrels -> Latios212

maelstrom - nobody

This leaves the last Bird seer vote to mariolegofan. As I said before, I think that the people who voted to seer me are almost definitely human -- wolves would paint or wolf their seer target. So let's not shoot mariolegofan for no reason, alright?

the_last_sheikah: Why did you vote to seer yourself?

Suspicion List
1. Nocturne of Shadow
2. Sqwerrels
3. BlackDragonSlayer - Took a long time to get back to my seer plan PM. Maybe he was talking it over with his partners?
4. AwesomeYears - Took a long time to get back to my seer plan PM. Maybe he was talking it over with his partners?
5. Yugi - No idea.
6. Maelstrom - No idea.
7. the_last_sheikah - I don't know why a human would vote to seer himself, but I would be even more baffled by a wolf doing the same thing.
8. mariolegofan - Voted to seer me - a wolf would have painted their seering target.
9. MaestroUGC - Voted to seer me - a wolf would have painted their seering target.
10. Latios212
11. Bird

And two other random ideas I had:
 - What are everyone's thoughts on lynching me, then reviving me n3? It would force the wolves to target an unconfirmed player tonight rather than me, helping us decide who to target for our next seerings/lynches.
 - If not that, what do you guys think of using a different seering plan next phase? Like, I'll privately pick two other people, and the three of us will pick a seer target, then nobody else votes on the seering? I dunno.

I'm curious, Bird, why did you choose to seer Latios over Sheikah?

Latios212 struck me as less likely to be painted, but I didn't give the issue a ton of thought.

@Sqwerrels

Latios212 told me that he was seering himself. Here's the PM he sent me:

Seering me is fine. I'll vote for that I guess.

And the four Latios votes in the thread match the four in Mashi's update PM, corroborating this fact.

I don't know why Latios212 agreed to seer himself, but that doesn't really matter since he's a confirmed human at this point. Wolves aren't going to wolf themselves as the revive only works on lynched players.

The wolves would both kill and seer Latios since they want the seering to provide as little information to the humans as possible. The best way to do that is to make sure the seer target ends up dead. I suspected from very early on that the wolves would attack their own seer targets!


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@Nocturne

Not trying to offend you or anything, I just think think the pieces fit together pretty well! Especially for a day 1 vote anyway. We aren't going to insta or start shooting you (yet) and there's plenty of time left in the phase. I guess I can't speak for everyone though.

[If those unaccounted for votes could claim them, that would be very helpful.]

Alright, I actually don't have the patience to wait and see who else voted to seer Latios212, so I'm just going to go ahead and post.

I created two mini-alliances last night, one with AwesomeYears and BlackDragonSlayer, and one with Latios212 and Nocturne of Shadow. Each of these mini-alliances thought I was only conspiring with them, and wasn't aware of the existence of the other. In the AY/BDS mini-alliance, we agreed to vote to seer the_last_sheikah, and in the NoS/L212 mini-alliance, we agreed to vote to seer Latios212. I should note that I originally proposed MaestroUGC as the seer target of this group, but Nocturne was paranoid about Latios and I, so we seered Latios212 instead. Everybody in these mini-alliances agreed to vote to seer the target.

That gives us the following spread of seer votes:

AwesomeYears -> the_last_sheikah
Latios212 -> Latios212
BlackDragonSlayer -> the_last_sheikah
NocturneOfShadow -> Latios212
Bird -> Latios212
Yugi -> Maestro
MaestroUGC -> Bird

Which leaves 3 votes unaccounted for. If those unaccounted for votes could claim them, that would be very helpful.

Now, what does this mean in relation to the wolfing?

I think it's pretty clear that NocturneOfShadow is a wolf. Latios212 strikes me as a very strange wolfing... unless you received some kind of intel suggesting that that player would be seered. Which NocturneOfShadow did, of course! I went into some detail when Latios212 expressed concern about the plan I brought to the two of them. Latios noted that since the seer was determined by random drawing, we wouldn't effectively be able to control the seer target. I then told both Latios212 and Nocturne that I was sure the majority of players would forget to send in their seer vote PMs. From a wolf's point of view, this is a perfect opportunity to eliminate the threat of being seered and prevent the humans from getting information about the game.

Furthermore, I think it's very possible that the fourth person who voted to seer Latios212 is Nocturne's partner. That's why I was so desperate to find out that information in my previous post, and probably the reason why I should have held off on posting this. I think by this same logic, the two people (Maestro and someone else) who voted to seer me are probably human, since the wolves would have wanted to wolf their n1 seer target (or at least paint them). So yeah, let's figure out those votes.

Okay, before anyone does ANYTHING else, I'd like to know who else voted to seer Latios. It could confirm them as a human.

I know that I did, and I'm pretty sure Nocturne and Latios did as well. Who was the fourth person?

Please refrain from shooting and voting, I have a very important post to make.

Leaning human on NoS.

thanks for ruining it bird

n-n-no way!!!  maybe thats true for day 1 b-but... you can choose between day 1 and day 2 during night 3... and so on... big...fat... durmie!!!

Nope.

On night 2, we must revive the player from day 1. Then we will lynch one player on day 2. At this point, there is only one dead lynched player, so we'll revive them on night 3. And on night 4, the only person we'll be able to revive is the lynch target from day 3.

[@Mashi: Shouldn't the ballot box reviving work on shotguns too? Otherwise every single lynched player will be brought back to life immediately after no matter what.]

@Mashi: Shouldn't the ballot box reviving work on shotguns too? Otherwise every single lynched player will be brought back to life immediately after no matter what.

Either way, let's make a deal with the fool. If they claim now, we can lynch them on day 1, achieving their win condition. Following that, we revive them on night 2. Since we helped them win, they can help us find the wolves from that point forward. My thinking is, we're going to revive whoever we lynch on day 1 anyway, so why not make an ally out of it?

5 bucks maelstrom shows up red of we seer him

...obviously. Both of the wolves can paint players red each night. We'd do best by keeping our seer preferences a secret. On that note, I think we should try to seer players likely to be green than red. A green seering is the 100% identification of a human player. A red seering tells you that there's a 50% chance that player is a wolf (or less as the game continues), which isn't very helpful.

pls wolf me