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Messages - TheZeldaPianist275

Voting Math. Sorry buddy, see you on the other side.
Will vote Math in the next 15 mins unless someone makes a strong case otherwise
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on January 09, 2024, 12:28:00 PMAlso, TZP, I've voted for Math. I could potentially be persuaded to change to Xiao (Toby's messaged seemed genuine so I don't think he's intentionally laying low as a strategy as wolf/Grandma), but I haven't seen enough Math to fully convince me he's human.
Thanks BDS, I guess I missed that. Also to be clear, I don't think Toby is intentionally laying low, I'm quite confident he has plenty of stuff going on irl right now, I just think that wolf!Toby would at the very least send in a wolfing given that this is the case. If we don't feel strongly about anyone else he'd be a decent option (and if he's human it sounds like he might even thank us for it).
Doing Xiao and Toby together

I just straight up think the wolfing would have been missed, not failed, if Xiao was the Grynch--just hasn't been here enough. Toby has, and I think he'd be a legitimate lynch candidate today, particularly since missing inactives has come back to bite us recently. That said, I hope everything's okay with you bro.

Right now I think that BDS and Oricorio scoping each other out is genuine, and THC's BDS/Davy reads are genuine. Math I'm not sure on.

From most to least sus I'd say:
1. Xiao
2. Oricorio
3. THC
4. BDS
5. Toby
6. Math
7. Davy

I think Davy's more likely Grandma than wolf. I'd be happy to cast a vote for Math or Toby but no one has voted for them yet, so I'm holding off to see if anyone else shows up to vote.
Math thoughts

D1 posts:
Quote from: threalmathguy on January 07, 2024, 08:46:24 PMI've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move
Early suspicion of me. Math's most recent post clarifies that he thought this was something I would try to avoid after the Waluigi gaffe last game. In my defense, it's been several weeks since Specs and I were discussing this game during host sign-ups. I don't find you suspicious for calling the legitimacy of this observation into question, but it was something that hadn't been brought up (notably not by Davy) before I said anything about it. Please look at my post on THC for why I said it when I did.

Quote from: threalmathguy on January 08, 2024, 10:45:59 PMSuspicion list:

Wolf (or grandma?) lean
TZP/THC - grouping them as I have the same reasoning. Both did a rule clarification/question (as did I, so I'm aware I'm not immune from this criticism either) that stands out as a little "I'm town, don't look at me" type of thing. Not a strong lean

Oricorio - as BDS pointed out, early grandma conversation seemed like a softball conversation. Could be an easy way to hop on the human train without giving away other strategies. But other mechanical conversation has good perspectives that could drive positive strategy (even if a lot of it is still focused on grandma) so probably not
Xiao/Toby - idk

Human lean
BDS - I disagree with those that said BDS's posts has been reactionary or lacking in content. A good perspective has been added with many posts
Davy - the early breakdown provided options for each outcome which I believe are only helpful to town (though, I don't see why anyone would help grinch except grandma but I don't get a grandma read either). Though I read human, I'd like to hear an explanation on the self-vote too

Early vote TZP
Hedgy suspicion list based mostly around thinking THC and I are being theater kids. Please weigh in on other things that have been brought up!

Math: wolf!Math is very sneaky especially early game. I could go both ways but I'm inclined to read him as a human who's invested in the game but not enough to make strong pushes one way or another.
Oricorio thoughts

N1 posts:
Quote from: Oricorio on January 06, 2024, 01:51:52 PMKeep in mind that if we lynch Grandma, that's one less chance to lynch the Grinch, and since they'll be ejected anyway there's no need to worry about them. In an eight-player game, a POE of three wins the game, although we can get a little more leeway if the Grinch attempts to wolf Grandma or the bulletproof townie.
Points out that lynching Grandma should be avoided, although will later say that it's likely not worth trading in our seer to stop Grandma from winning.
Quote from: Oricorio on January 07, 2024, 10:14:21 AMThis is a good look for THC. Firstly, it's a bold thing for a wolf to ask, secondly, the Grinch's role PM (shown in the OP) explicitly mentions a wolfing. Of course, this kind of thing can be faked, but it would still be an unusual opener for a wolf.
I'm a little bit surprised you interpreted THC's question as legitimate on its face. Why not more skepticism here?
Quote from: Oricorio on January 07, 2024, 12:24:13 PMThe Grandma situation is important to parity, and you are ignoring all my later posts. I think it's important to determine how many mislynches town has to work with (which in this case seems to be one), as that is important to establish in order for town to make the best decisions — in fact, it's typically the first thing that town establishes in most other sites. Besides, I am not particularly interested in hearing this argument from you, as you turned out to be wrong with the same line of reasoning in that last game. If you're gonna wolfread me no matter what I do, what's the point?
Bellicose Oricorio feels like human!Oricorio to me.

D1 posts:
Quote from: Oricorio on January 08, 2024, 08:51:41 PMThen say something not worthless. What are your thoughts on the THC/davy situation?
Quote from: Oricorio on January 08, 2024, 09:11:39 PMMissed something in the setup. Given the last game, this does not seem to be an unusual occurrence.
Quote from: Oricorio on January 07, 2024, 10:17:54 AMI'll be expecting more effort from you
Being rude to get a rise out of people is the new meta!

In reference to the collection of ISO reviews (not going to quote all of them): I haven't played a game with Oricorio as a wolf, and putting in visible effort is not a guarantee of alignment, but I do think it's tough to overvalue how much work Oricorio is putting into systematically going through everyone's posts and pulling patterns. It's helpful for humans and I haven't seen anything that has felt like strategic mischaracterization yet.

Oricorio: human lean.
BDS thoughts

D1 posts:
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on January 07, 2024, 05:16:35 PMMight change after catching up, but my reads on Davy after his initial posts have been neutral. I feel like his early posts don't really lean one way or another.
Which is part of the reason why lynching Grandma is never the right call (unless I'm missing some sort of niche application where it can benefit us). Feels a bit redundant to bring this up.
It seems like you just skimmed over my posts without actually realizing that I added additional content other than just replying to the quotes.Based on your post, I understand your reasoning for why you think I'm the Grinch, but why do you think Davy might be Grandma? That sort of feels like it comes out of nowhere, especially with how many players hadn't made substantial posts yet as of your post.
On the other hand, I definitely feel that it's likely to have been faked—but if it is, I imagine THC could be Grandma, not the Grinch, since Grandma's role description and role PM also explicitly mentions a wolfing and posing such a question would be a way to distance from that.

Also, given that the possibility of losing a special to a wolfing was mentioned several times (especially by Davy, see this post for an example just above THC's post), I personally find it a bit difficult to believe it was a genuine question from THC, unless he was speedskimming the whole thread.
This is a good observation.
Rereading some of these early posts I'm not sure they're as reactive as people, myself included, have said they are. This one in particular, floating the idea that THC might be Grandma, is certainly an original push. So that characterization may have been too hasty.
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on January 07, 2024, 05:34:11 PMSo far, my overall player thoughts are:
Slight wolf lean on Davy and THC (feels like THC could be Grandma and Davy could be piggybacking on that), slight human lean on TZP and Oricorio.

Xiao, Toby, and Math have not yet posted enough for me to say more.
Any more thoughts on Oricorio?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on January 08, 2024, 03:40:44 PMI think it's very possible that Davy/THC could be Grinch/Grandma (in either combination). Before Oricorio's recent posts I wasn't sure about the idea of Davy being Grandma, but now I'm willing to consider it as a possibility. In this game especially, we have to be really vigilant about people who seem to be deliberately acting in a way that seems suspicious, at least until Grandma is definitively identified and/or kicked from the game. On the off chance that one of Davy/THC is Grandma I'm not sure how confident I feel lynching either one of them today.

For the time being I'm going to vote Math, though that may change depending on if/how he responds later.
Why Math? Is this an activity prompt or something more? You haven't said very much about him beyond wanting to hear more. Is there more to it beyond a bandwagon vote?

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on January 08, 2024, 11:42:56 PMSomething I noticed earlier (circa 9pm Pacific Time, about 2-3 hours ago) was that Oricorio seemed to parrot something I said rather unexpectedly. I sent a PM to Xiao (who did not respond) pointing this out because I wasn't ready to bring it up publicly yet—I wanted to see if Oricorio would keep doing it or if it was a one-time thing.

When Toby asked who or what he should focus on analyzing to help him catch up, Oricorio said this:
This was my response to Toby:
When Xiao popped into the thread, this is what Oricorio said:
Why did Oricorio pivot from recommending scrutiny on davy, TZP, and me to Toby, to recommending scrutiny on THC/davy (what I suggested to Toby) to Xiao? Worth noting is that I was going to recommend the same thing to Xiao, but felt it was redundant with me already mentioning it to Toby—but I decided against posting it; then Oricorio made his post.

If this was a one-off thing it wouldn't worry me too much (it would be more of a weird footnote if anything else popped up later), but then this immediately stood out to me:I feel like I've seen this before.(insert "can I copy your homework" meme here)
This is a thoughtful post and while Oricorio's response to this push made sense to me, this does feel like legitimate wolf-hunting to me.

BDS: No strong leans on alignment as yet but putting in effort in a human way, and also showing his work to demonstrate that his suspicions and instincts have continuity to them. Likely will not be persuaded to vote BDS
THC thoughts

N1 Posts:
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 07, 2024, 07:00:17 AMI have a question for Specs, since the game post doesn't seem very clear about it. Is there a wolfing at night?
People (Math and Oricorio iirc) have been bundling this in with my observation about the wolf seering power as potentially LAMIST behavior (am I using that right Oricorio?). I want to point out that me saying "there's a wolf, don't trust someone who claims to have seered you" is very different from THC asking about a basic wolf power which is taken for granted. I brought that observation up because there had been discussion during N1 about it being safe to claim to a blue if you seered him. I was nodding along with that strategy talk until I returned to the role list and saw that there was a wolf seer--something that wasn't brought up at all by Davy when he first said it was possible to start up an alliance with a blue seering. I wanted to bring it to the thread's attention quickly in case in case Santa had been misled by that as well.

In contrast, THC asking Specs in public about a wolfing is theater that doesn't affect anyone's potential actions. It doesn't make him a wolf, but it is something that could just as easily have been asked in private--which my post could not have been.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 07, 2024, 08:16:13 AMYeah, that's why I was confused.

So, my initial feelings:
1. davy's initial post reads very town to me. He definitely feels like the person I trust most as of now. I could definitely see him being Grandma, but imo Grandma is more likely to team with town than with the Grinch, anyway.
2. BDS and Oricorio both talked about lynching Grandma as being bad, as if she doesn't get ousted from the game after D2 anyway.
3. On top of that, while Oricorio has certainly added a lot to discuss about, BDS's responses have felt reactionary at best. They don't seem to adding any meaningful commentary on what they're responding to, and don't even always have more to say than what basically amounts to "Yeah, that makes sense".
4. Xiao has yet to post, and Toby, math, and TZP have one post each with none amounting to much. I would like to hear more from these four, but there's nothing to make them inherently sus yet, since the game only just started.
5. Specs sus.

In the spirit of Oricorio, and since I never actually did this for him when he asked before, I shall give a GTH. GTH BDS is Grinch and davy is Grandma.
If anything, this post sells me more on the Davy as Grandma train, because THC said that Grandma gets ousted from the game after D2, so who cares if we lynch her? This is more "pro-Grandma propaganda" than anything Oricorio has said thus far, and Davy insisting on that suspicion with THC saying this doesn't feel genuine to me. Also THC says BDS is only reacting to people which I think was a fairly accurate characterization at this point in the game, but probably no longer.

D1 posts:
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 08, 2024, 10:26:00 PMI'm at work right now, so I don't have a lot of time, but I just wanted to clear up this one thing. First off, I already explained why I think davy is Grandma. Other than myself, his posts have been the most pro-Grandma. As for why I've been so pro-Grandma, I realized the issue. I'm thinking about it as myself, not as a normal person. When I'm in a game with neutral that has a wincon that doesn't immediately end the game, I want the neutral to win no matter what side I'm on. And if I'm the neutral, I would side with Town, even if it's against my best interest. So from that perspective, it makes perfect sense to think Grandma would side with Town. But from a normal person perspective, which the rest of you (likely including Grandma) have, it does make more sense for Grandma to team up with the Grinch. It just didn't occur to me before because I'm not good at seeing things from a normal perspective rather than my own. Anyway, I'll respond to more later, but it will he after work hours from now.
Acknowledges his pro-Grandma take and explains why. Having played several times with THC, that he would want the third party to win, all else equal, checks out to me. If he were Grandma I don't think he would draw attention to the fact that he was dropping pro-Grandma talk.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 09, 2024, 09:05:42 AMAlright I'm not gonna be here before phase change, so I'm gonna cast my vote now. I do agree that BDS has had much better posts since my previous suspicions, and he's brought up some decent points about Oricorio being sus as well. However, I can't exactly explain it, but I just have a gut feeling BDS is the Grinch. The same feeling I had when I thought he was an assassin and I was his ward (which I was 100% right about). So I'm still voting BDS.
"I got a feeling about BDS". If anyone else posted this I'd think it was a lot more suspicious, but THC does nothing if not trust his gut. This isn't alignment indicative to me, although I don't think it's persuasive either.

THC: probably not Grandma, could be wolf or human. Would consider lynching, but I want to look at everyone else before I make a verdict.
Davy thoughts

N1 Posts:
Quote from: davy on January 06, 2024, 12:59:24 PMSince both blue roles are pretty important, it's probably best not to lose one of them to try to set up an alliance.
This is a meaningful contribution for how early it is. My instinct is that a wolf would agree with this as a best strategy, but probably not be the first one to push it. I think wolves on NSM tend to contribute to but not drive aggressively strategy discussion, although of course Davy's seniority typically prompts him to take an early leading role.

Quote from: davy on January 07, 2024, 11:46:37 AMTHC gets human points for being the one to point out that BDS's posts have amounted to "makes sense".

Disagree with THC that there is no difference between Grandma being lynched and her getting kicked out of the game. Grandma getting lynched takes down another human with her. If we lynch someone else, we have a chance of lynching the Grinch with that lynch.

3 of Oricorio's initial 4 posts have been about Grandma. I can't help but be reminded of Lantern game where Oricorio kept talking about the Lanterns when he was the Strange Man. Feels like this is either a repeat of that, or Oricorio being the Grinch deliberately trying to make us think he's Grandma so he doesn't get lynched.
I've already stated I disagree with the reasoning against Grandma!Oricorio. Oricorio said something to the effect that I didn't make an argument based on this, and that's true: I don't find it to be alignment-indicative. I understand why he said it and I think it's faulty reasoning, that's it.

Quote from: davy on January 07, 2024, 12:17:08 PMConsidering BDS, I'd GTH lynch him over anyone but you rn, but that's easy to say when half of the player base haven't made any posts of substance, so I'm happy there's 2 more days where everyone should be able to post more stuff before I have to lock in the decision of who to lynch.
GTH reasoning on BDS on the basis of mostly-agreeing posts that he will later walk back. I don't find this to be suspicious.

D1 posts:
His suspicion list pushes me and Math as present but substance-free players, but still has Oricorio ahead of us on the list as a top Grandma suspicion, while not even responding to the critique I had of his argument. This more than anything else is the biggest piece of evidence toward Grandma!Davy in my opinion.

Quote from: davy on January 08, 2024, 01:18:01 PMSafety on davy
The self-vote makes him seem less Grandmaish--surely the Jester wouldn't be openly voting for himself--but in a game with vote stacking this is something innocuous that could make a big difference. So I could see it.

Davy: 50-50, maybe 60-40, on whether he's Grandma or human, probably not wolf. Avoid lynch.
I'm at work now and will be here through phase end. Lots to respond to, I'll do my best to multitask through it piecemeal with the game open in a separate tab.
Quote from: threalmathguy on January 07, 2024, 08:46:24 PMI've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move
That's generous of you, Math, but you are talking about a guy who thought that having TWG Waluigi claim a blue seering was a solid strategy!
Just reviewed the roles and I totally missed that the Grynch has a seer ability. If you're Santa and a seer claims to you, don't take for granted that it's Rudolph—though I suppose the Grynch won't know which blue he seered.
Tough scene for the Grynch!

Davy it's likely but not guaranteed that we have two mislynches. Absolute worst case scenario is 1 wolf and 3 humans going into N3, which in a usual game would go to D3, but if a surviving human has been naughty-listed it'd go to the Grynch based on Specs' ref call there.

@SpecsFlyer17 what happens if Santa tries to nice-list the Grynch?

Oricorio, in your posts you've referred to a thunderdome and F3. What do those mean? Is F3 final three?

My thoughts on players so far:
I don't think Xiao, Toby, and Math being largely or completely MIA is alignment-indicative--not yet at least. I agree with the consensus that THC sounds slightly towny. I agree with the consensus that BDS sounds slightly wolfy. Davy and Oricorio are driving the discussion, and I disagree with Davy that Oricorio's Grandma-talk is reminscent of Oricorio's Strange Man-talk in TWG CXVII. In the postgame for that one, Oricorio pointed out that he was dropping a lot of pro-Strange Man propaganda, and he's doing the exact opposite in this one. I'd say he's more likely Grynch than Grandma, but I'd still lean town. Davy I'm not sure yet.
Finally! Welcome back everybody. Far too long it has been.
in again