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Messages - TheZeldaPianist275

#31
Oricorio

I want it to be 2-2
#32
Unvote. I'll eat a phantom so Davy can hit his win condition.
#33
That is an extremely late-in-the-phase gambit to try to pull off. It's suicide for wolf!Oricorio if no one reacts to it.
#34
All right, that gives me pause. If Oricorio is a wolf, getting Davy lynched right now would kill him.
#35
Changing my vote to Oricorio. I just can't shake the red check.
#36
We're not going to be able to guarantee no naughty-list shenanigans unless all four remaining humans unanimously vote the Grynch. And if we whiff, it's up in the air whether we even get a D3. If you actually think it's BDS, now is the time to explain, THC.
#37
Lore dump. sorry for the 11th-hour update.

Spoiler
--n2--
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 09, 2024, 08:52:47 PMOk, I told davy that if I die tonight, Oricorio is the Grinch. So if I die tonight, davy is the Grinch trying to frame Oricorio. If I don't die, then BDS is the Grinch.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 08:10:43 AMSo you're not as set on BDS as you made it sound in the thread? Why not?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 09:03:15 AMOh, I'm 100% set on BDS. I'm trying a gambit that I realized actually just makes things more complicated, but I was already high on sowing chaos by the time I finished setting it up. I've sent that same message to every player, but one off. So, for example, I told Xiao that I told you that if I die tonight, it's davy, and so if I die it's you trying to frame davy. So on and so forth. The reason I'm telling you this is because I actually trust you the most right now. Since you showed up and started posting more, you've read very town to me. I will say that Xiao's response was "Noted", so if I do die, then Xiao is likely the Grinch since I doubt BDS would wolf me as the Grinch because I'm plenty sus enough for him to keep me alive. I still fully believe BDS is the Grinch, but there's always room for error. You're my backup plan if I die, now. Thanks for volunteering.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 09:58:26 AMHa. Occurred to me you might be doing that, and actually it's a strategy that's occurred to me in prior games lol--not sure why it hasn't been used before. Why are you so 100% on BDS? Your gut has been good before, but it's been wrong before too.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 10:03:40 AMI'm not sure. I just have that same feeling I had in the assassin's game. I was so positive he was an assassin and I was his ward, and I was right. If I have that same feeling again, I feel like I should stick to it. I have always been the kind of person that can subconsciously read people without realizing I'm reading them or being able to put it into words. I'm usually the first to tell when someone's a gross person before it becomes apparent to everyone else. So I trust my gut implicitly.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 10:06:33 AMAt this point, I'm just waiting until phase end without responding to anyone (except you, obviously), so I can see what happens. I'm fairly certain I won't die this phase, as the only player I would see doing that at this point would be Xiao. That's why I want you to preach that if I do die. Cause if I die, then it's most likely Xiao. But if I don't, which I likely won't, then I fully believe it's BDS.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 12:59:43 PMI don't think you're a wolf, but I'm waiting till the last minute to send this just in case. I am the seer, and Davy flipped Grandma last night—dead to rights.
--now D2--
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 01:04:49 PMIf you're actually telling the truth, that is hilarious. It just goes to show I should never doubt my gut. Unless you're lying, but at this point, I highly doubt it. If you rolled wolf again, then you deserve the win at this point anyway. But I still believe it's BDS. The Toby wolfing is interesting, I'll need to recheck my PMs to see what I said to who.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 01:22:31 PMAgreed, anything you have would be helpful--let me know what you come up with. Also I want your thoughts on this: I just got a red check on someone for N2. I'd like to stay hidden for longer just in case we go to N3. My suggestion is this: what if I go public in the thread and say "the seer wants to stay hidden, but he trusted me to pass on his results, and here they are"?

the Grynch will then try to figure out who the seer was. He might decide it's you (since you're near the bottom of my suspicion list) and make you the target N3, and I get to live for one more night's seering if we haven't won by then. What do you think of that plan?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 01:24:09 PMI am more than willing to go along with that. Also, none of my PMs really helped with figuring out anything since Toby was wolfed. My only guess is that it was likely an experienced player.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 01:37:00 PMDo you think it would be better for me to say (falsely) that the seer contacted me with these results or for you to be the one to break it and say (truthfully) that the seer contacted you with these results?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 01:50:21 PMNo one would be believe me at this point. I've gone off the deep end. Most people seem to be townreading you, though.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 02:29:46 PMIf you want to claim seer publicly, I won't counterclaim you--for now at least. Let's see where this goes.
--Oricorio rats out Davy--
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 11, 2024, 11:24:30 AMAnd with that message from Oricorio, I now trust you 100%. This is certainly an interesting turn of events.
[close]

---

TL;DR I'm the seer, not THC. I was going to sit on this until the last few seconds of N3 to try to survive for one more seering, but it sounds like that's not going to be helpful since my power is unlikely to pick up another red. For those of you upset that I banked so much on a THC read, I apologize--I know it was risky. Everything that has been claimed re: the seer in the thread is true, just with THC and my names switched. And to be clear, I still believe THC to be human based on my interactions with him--his reaction to my claiming seer privately was very human. I think it's only fair, though, that everyone has all the information before the phase rolls over, since keeping it to myself has a very small potential upside.
#38
So what I'm hearing is that the seer power is probably useless tonight since the Grynch probably knows Santa
#39
@SpecsFlyer17 , can the Grynch change his color by guessing Santa's identity after Santa is dead?
#40
Points in Oricorio's favor: zero panic upon being checked red. Kinda just like "well, that sucks for me, but might as well keep wolf-hunting." I feel like a normal wolf reaction after being checked red would be to try to mount a significant case against me or BDS by pulling a narrative out of our posts. The decision to land on Xiao because of inactivity seems clear-headed and honest, and Oricorio doesn't seem desperate to convince any of us?

Points against Oricorio: checked red lol. I'm with BDS that this is a very hard thing to ignore--although in fairness, for both wolf!TZP and wolf!BDS the probable best play is to mount a halfhearted case against Oricorio for it and just trust the inertia in that direction since the humans don't have a better lead.

Xiao for now. I am considering Oricorio strongly as well, though. And if THC wants to articulate the BDS suspicion, I'm still ready to listen.
#41
Quote from: Oricorio on January 11, 2024, 10:44:10 PMI mean, if TZP is the Grinch, I would see him pushing me a bit harder for being red-checked. Then again, maybe he thinks he doesn't need to? It'd still be weird
Saying something like this makes me more, not less, suspicious of you. If you push a player with a red check that makes you more likely to be the Grynch? What? This reads like trying to strong-arm me off of voting you.

I am sorry I've kind of disappeared, have a busy day today. I'll continue to monitor leading up to phase end.
#42
Quote from: davy on January 11, 2024, 11:26:28 AMAnd good luck surviving this, BDS!

Wait, what is this in reference to? THC's gut feeling on BDS or something else?
#43
Glad to have that cleared up. Sorry Davy, that's kind of a sucky way to go out.

With Xiao's public and Davy's private claim, I'm pretty confident in THC at this point, and the question for me is whether a red check on Oricorio is enough to lynch. I'll now answer Oricorio's question from earlier about my check-free reads on people.

Davy: QED

Math: unfortunate

THC: In addition to being the uncc'd seer, the "message player (n) 'if I die, it was player (n+1)'" strategy feels like a very human play. It's not laying groundwork for a manipulation, it's trying to scare up information by seeing how people react.

BDS: Even though I trust THC right now, I don't share his feelings on BDS, at least not to the same extent. In particular, BDS bringing up the most tinfoily interpretations of events possible--which I believe he's done twice now--feels like human behavior to me, because it assumes the absolute worst-possible outcome in such a way discourages people from taking things at face value. This seems to me to be reminiscent of the paranoid BDS of yesteryear, always on the lookout for wool being pulled over his eyes. That said, BDS is able enough to blend in, and the "know when to move in and out of the shadows" wolf strategy he described earlier could, I think, apply to him this game as well. Short answer: I don't know, and I'm not casting my vote based on THC's spidey-sense.

Oricorio: As I said on D1, Oricorio is the player putting in the most work, and as I said on D1, this isn't a guarantee of humanity. I'm going to go back through your posts a bit later today to try to discern any unexplainable pushes. Also, I don't think refusing to go along with Davy's dead man's hand play gives human points--wolf!Oricorio has far more to gain from revealing that message than from going along with it. Short answer: I don't know on Oricorio either.

Toby: Probably Santa. If you're reading this Toby please make your last nicelisting count!

Xiao: I really have no idea where the two-post level of activity has come from. It's plausible, I suppose, that Xiao wants to switch up the meta and play inactive as a wolf. If I recall correctly, Xiao has expressed frustration in postgames before about a) losing every game and b) being read incorrectly by people every single game. So perhaps this is the game where he throws up his hands and says "screw it, I'm hiding the whole game." This theory always has the weakness that it's just not fun, for either team. Why play if you're not going to, you know, play?

So right now I think the Grynch is between BDS and Oricorio, and the red check on Oricorio makes me think that we should probably lynch him. I'm not married to this plan, though, and I suppose most of all I want to hear from THC why he's still rock-solid confident that BDS is the Grynch and Oricorio is Scrooge. Also, despite being a confirmed 3rd-party, Davy often has very good reads, and the fact that he threw a hailmary banking on Oricorio being the Grynch carries some weight with me.
#44
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 11, 2024, 05:20:42 AMAnd I didn't seer BDS because I didn't want to prove myself wrong.
THC what does this mean. Why would you not want to prove yourself right?
#45
Davy, why are you voting me? Even before THC claimed, I made it pretty clear that I was just passing along information.

Oricorio, my updated suspicion list for living players:

6. TZP (me tier)
5. THC (as-yet uncc'd seer)
4. Xiao (see last sus list)
3. BDS (uncc'd seer has unqualifiable obsession ??)
2. Oricorio (red check by uncc'd seer)
1. davy (seered as Grandma by uncc'd seer)

I'd be happy for Xiao to pop in here and claim Santa, as everyone else has posted, but I kinda doubt that Xiao will claim blue. I think that the Toby wolfing was in all likelihood the result of the Grynch getting a lucky blue seering and removing him--why else pick a fairly inactive player who totally could have been lynched yesterday?

If THC is the Grynch and seered Toby as blue N1 and then wolfed Toby N2 to remove a blue and then claim blue in that player's stead, without knowing which blue Toby was, he's betting the game on a coin flip--if Toby was seer and THC claims seer, he probably wins; if Toby was Santa and THC claims seer, he gets thunderdomed with the real seer and probably loses. Jury's out on whether that is a risk that THC would take, I suppose.