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TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

Started by BlackDragonSlayer, August 17, 2023, 05:52:41 PM

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Olimar12345

Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 10:14:30 AMOlimar is literally going to try and suicide again tonight so he can win what is the benefit in lynching him

You don knoooow me!
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Toby

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 24, 2023, 10:45:18 AMToby, that's fair. A mis-lynch plus a human+PNS suicide isn't as bad as I thought.

I'm still hung up on why the wolf didn't bite off of Olimar's 50 plan. It is a fact he didn't pick 50. Assuming Olimar is the PNS, A# and Toby had reasons to not pick 50. Everyone else should've taken the bait and got the double kill. Toby and A# were at risk of being exposed by a failed swap to 50, since Olimar was specifically going to target then. With A# dead, that leaves Toby.

Are people still on me when I'm literally trying my best to convince the humans to not waste a lynch on PNS 💀

Quote from: Olimar12345 on August 24, 2023, 10:48:35 AMYou don knoooow me!

Olimar you could at least try win 😭 everyone wants to lynch you

I'm assuming you haven't won already ?

Olimar12345

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XiaoMigros

Either way I think lynching him is the best course of action

Toby

Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 24, 2023, 12:46:41 PMEither way I think lynching him is the best course of action

Why

What's the benefit

We literally lose a lynch trying to catch the wolf if we do

Toby

Getting towards end of phase I'm only going to be up another few hours

Voting magnet as there's too much uncertainty around him and rather he's out now than make it to the last day in lynch or lose

XiaoMigros

Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 12:52:11 PMWhy

What's the benefit

We literally lose a lynch trying to catch the wolf if we do
Multiple people have explained why, and the benefits

Toby

Xiao:
QuoteWhy am I revealing all this to the real wolf, you might ask? Because I think the right course of action is to vote out Olimar. I don't feel comfortable voting for Specs just yet, even though they're top of my suspicion list, because if we're wrong there's a good chance of a double kill happening, leaving the town with perhaps too few people left to figure out what's going on. If anyone has a more compelling strategy, please say!
Seeing as the PNS can only get a guaranteed double kill making their number the same as someone else's, I guess there isn't that much to worry about in this regard? But still, I think it's fair to want to put an end to a possibly coordinated effort between wolf and PNS, especially since the wolf can then choose who they'd like to kill.

The only benefit being to stop the wolf possibly killing who they want tonight ? Which they have a 25% chance of doing anyway? Which would require the wolf to be working with the PNS for to happen - which as I thought you deducted, there's no chance they are working together as of yet ?

If the wolf didn't want to work with the PNS last night why would they change their mind tonight ?

You're worried there will be too few humans left alive if there's a double kill? There will either be 2 humans and a wolf if there's a double kill, or there will be 2 humans, the PNS, and a wolf, in which the PNS' best interest is to side with the humans so that they don't lose dieing to the following night kill.

If we don't lynch magnet today we risk him being in the lynch or lose which requires both humans to work together to make a decision. Going by magnet's track record, we don't even know if he'll be active during that phase

XiaoMigros

Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 02:09:39 PMXiao:
The only benefit being to stop the wolf possibly killing who they want tonight ? Which they have a 25% chance of doing anyway? Which would require the wolf to be working with the PNS for to happen - which as I thought you deducted, there's no chance they are working together as of yet ?
I would like the wolf to lose as much control over the situation as possible, even if that means lynching someone who probably isn't. Removing the wolf's ability to strategise only helps the town. Besides, there's a non trivial chance that Olimar is a wolf, though I do think that's rather unlikely.

XiaoMigros

Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 02:09:39 PMIf the wolf didn't want to work with the PNS last night why would they change their mind tonight ?
Why wouldn't they?

XiaoMigros

Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 02:09:39 PMYou're worried there will be too few humans left alive if there's a double kill? There will either be 2 humans and a wolf if there's a double kill, or there will be 2 humans, the PNS, and a wolf, in which the PNS' best interest is to side with the humans so that they don't lose dieing to the following night kill.
You yourself have been asking if the PNS has perhaps won already, and it's quite possible they might have done. You're not really making much sense here...

XiaoMigros

Quote from: Toby on August 24, 2023, 02:09:39 PMIf we don't lynch magnet today we risk him being in the lynch or lose which requires both humans to work together to make a decision. Going by magnet's track record, we don't even know if he'll be active during that phase
There's ample time to vote out magnet next time. Besides, active or not, I don't think there's anything magnet can say to help their case, since the suspicion of them being wolf is based largely off their inactivity.

Toby

Ample time to lynch magnet?

There's one more lynch after today no matter what

XiaoMigros

I will go with what others vote for. I belive Olimar already has 2 votes?

Toby

2 including yours.

Who are your top wolf suspicions?