TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[Toby]

I don't believe we should actually lynch the PNS today

With 6 players alive - 4 humans, PNS and wolf, regardless of if there is a double kill tonight, we have 2 lynches left.

If there is a double kill tonight we are on day 3 with 3 players.

If there's not a double kill tonight, we are on day 3 with 4 players. But regardless we won't make it to day 4.

We should use our next 2 lynches to target the wolf, and not waste one to kill the known PNS.
If there is a double wolfing, it'll really only come from the PNS dying alongside.

If we get to day 3 with 4 players alive, 2 humans, 1 wolf, 1 PNS. The PNS will likely side with the humans because if the PNS is alive at the end of the game they also win. So they'll be forced to help us lynch a wolf.

We have 2 lynches left regardless, so we may as well use them to find the wolf rather than use one on the PNS.

I don't get why if your plan was to lynch the PNS today anyway why you stopped them from suiciding during the night ? Are you wanting us to waste a lynch ?

[Toby]

What number did anyone pick I've only seen A#s and mine ?

[XiaoMigros]

Are you wanting us to waste a lynch ?

The main advantage of lynching the PNS is that the wolf then can't choose who they kill. I'm worried that leaving the PNS alive could mean that them and the wolf work together to kill certain players as to cause confusion in the town, like what Olimar wanted to happen today had I been the wolf. Leaving the PNS alive is a security risk; I agree it's not ideal to 'waste' a lynch on them, but what are you proposing in return?

[SpecsFlyer17]

I went with 52. I wanted to get as close to 50 as possible without deviating from the strategy. If I died, it would have told the remaining humans that the wolf likely chose 50 and the PNS did not follow Olimar's plan. With 35 being the wolfing number, we didn't learn anything from it.

[XiaoMigros]

I chose 46

[Toby]

The main advantage of lynching the PNS is that the wolf then can't choose who they kill. I'm worried that leaving the PNS alive could mean that them and the wolf work together to kill certain players as to cause confusion in the town, like what Olimar wanted to happen today had I been the wolf. Leaving the PNS alive is a security risk; I agree it's not ideal to 'waste' a lynch on them, but what are you proposing in return?

I believe we should use our 2 remaining lynches to focus on wolves.

If the wolf and PNS work together tonight to guarantee a specific player dies, I think so be it. There's a 25% chance that player would die anyway if it stays random

[Toby]

Does anyone see any reason why the wolf would not have chosen 50?

Only olimar and Xiao was aware that 50 was no longer the double kill number

[Toby]

magnet wasn't online so we know his number was randomised. Do we think that's why 50 was chosen?

Did the wolf want to add chaos and not follow Olimars plan? Maybe they didn't want me or A# dead ?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Again, not that it apparently matters, but my number was 92. Xiao and Specs, if you're telling the truth, mad respect for using yourselves as meat shields to protect the potential double-up on 50.

Xiao, I am struggling to understand your plan here. You told Olimar a) you were the wolf and that b) if he changed my number to 5 but kept his at 50 you would wolf me but keep him alive to maximize confusion around the PNS' identity? Why would Olimar believe you in that case, and why would that lead to increased doubt about the actual identity of the PNS? I was happy A# stuck to the bit as long as she did, but once Olimar claimed it was pretty obvious he was the real deal, since he waited until after a phase where he couldn't have been lynched and didn't demand that the wolf reveal itself. Am I missing something?

[XiaoMigros]

Xiao, I am struggling to understand your plan here.

I didn't really have a plan, I didn't go into this situation with the goal of getting a particular outcome. My main goal was actually to try to figure out what was up with A#, but that obviously ended up leading nowhere. Additionally, if the real wolf had already or hadn't yet reached out, I could potentially avoid the wolf getting there way later on.

[Toby]

magnet wasn't online so we know his number was randomised. Do we think that's why 50 was chosen?

Did the wolf want to add chaos and not follow Olimars plan? Maybe they didn't want me or A# dead ?

Why 50 wasn't chosen *

[Toby]

I'm probably lean more towards voting Specs only because Xiao and TZP played more risky in my eyes

[TheZeldaPianist275]

oh, HBD BDS--we'll try not to insta anyone today so you can enjoy the day haha

[XiaoMigros]

I'm probably lean more towards voting Specs only because Xiao and TZP played more risky in my eyes

What's TZP done that's risky?

[Toby]

For the reasons I already said in my suspicion list just before day 2 started

I just have more town lean on TZP than specs. Specs feels too neutral to me