TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Was hoping to stay awake for phase update but I'm already too tired to keep going Here's hoping things turn out well!!

[Kaiveran]

Night 1 has concluded.

XiaoMigros has died. They were the Red Assassin's Cold Target, aligned with the Town.

threalmathguy has died. They were a Normal Townie.

Living Players:

A# Minor
BlackDragonSlayer
ThatHiddenCharacter
TheZeldaPianist275
SpecsFlyer17
The Musical Poet
Toby

It is now Day 1. Day 1 will conclude at
11:59PM US Central, Wednesday, 27 September 2023.

[A# Minor]

XiaoMigros has died. They were the Red Assassin's Cold Target, aligned with the Town.

cold target die fist night time

welp, they were right

[A# Minor]

hmm... so if mathguy was just a normal human, the only other person I could find somewhat suspicious right now is THC...


I'm going to sleep now and I'll reread most of the thread tomorrow to see if I can pick up anything else. bye

[SpecsFlyer17]

Red Assassin likely went after his own Cold Target, as expected, and got Xiao.

Blue Assassin likely whiffed and got a Human, Math.

2 Assassins, 2 Wards, 2 Hot Targets, and 1 Human remain!

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

So, statistically speaking, anyone still alive who was told they're a normal townie has a 2/3 chance of being a ward. That being said, if push comes to shove and more people think I should be lynched than Toby, then I will go down willingly on the odds I'm a ward and can take an assassin with me. However, I still think Toby should be under serious suspicion today.

[A# Minor]

THC I'm glad I'm not the only one who is suspicious of toby after backtracking a bit

[therealmathguy]

threalmathguy has died. They were a Normal Townie.

Death post:
Now that I'm dead I can reveal that my comment about forgetting the ward rules was an honest rookie slip-up and not meant to metagame. I'm not sure if that's frowned upon or treated as part of the game, but sorry about that.

Good luck to humans!

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

So, statistically speaking, anyone still alive who was told they're a normal townie has a 2/3 chance of being a ward. That being said, if push comes to shove and more people think I should be lynched than Toby, then I will go down willingly on the odds I'm a ward and can take an assassin with me. However, I still think Toby should be under serious suspicion today.

In fact, I doubt I will change my mind about Toblerone being the best lynch candidate, so I'm going to vote for him now just to get it out of the way.

Toby

[Toby]

THC you started neutral on me and then me literally responding to you got you more and more suspicious lol. Do you want to give any content as to why you're suspicious?

Same to you A#?

[Toby]

As specs said Xiao was probably killed by red assassin, and math guy killed by blue assassin

Blue assassin likely tried to kill the other assassin by going for math guy. Which somewhat makes me think the blue assassin probably isn't someone who had already said they would push for a math guy lynch, because if it was they'd probably feel comfortable trying to get that lynch rather than using a kill.

Red assassin obviously just went for Xiao because they're the cold target. Interesting how Xiao and Davy were both top lynch candidates yesterday and both were cold targets ...

I'm going to have to look back and see who was saying what about Xiao. Xiao was admit-ably less involved this game compared to his precious two, however not everyone might know that, and I didn't want to focus on that too much considering I felt a bit uninvolved the first irl day at least and the Davy/bds plan paragraphs, over explanations and finger pointing was a bit off putting to see on day 0 lol

[Toby]

A quick rundown on adjustments to my D0 suspicion list:

WOLF LEAN:
- Toby: Perhaps to my own detriment, I still can't shake the "one of Toby or davy is an assassin" idea I had prior (and we know how davy flipped). I was originally going to put Toby in the "slight wolf lean" category despite this (from the cardflip and his involvement, or lack thereof, in the davy lynch, it seems likely he isn't the blue assassin, at least), until today's incident regarding my opinions on THC. I've had PM correspondence with Toby and another player (they can reveal who they are, if they so choose) about why Toby was irked by this and it just makes me feel much worse about Toby, especially with how he went about responding to the situation.
- Xiao: Aside from the possibility of being the blue assassin who hopped on the davy lynch early as a longshot play, additions have been the way Xiao jumped on the A# suspicion, and the way Xiao reacted to my take about THC.
- A# Minor: Weird behavior toward end of last phase + this phase, sudden jump on davy vote, still feel like first-time-wolf syndrome kicking in to full effect.

I don't understand the either me or Davy is assassin logic. Assassins obviously don't know eachother so there isn't partnership there. The only way they could be related is through protecting/gunning for ward/cold target. Given Davy now flipped cold target and I didn't gun him I feel like your logic is flawed but you refuse to see that ?

And you've had PM conversations regarding my thoughts on your opinions of THC ? Why?
I literally PM'd you to say I explicitly wasn't talking about your opinions on THC so why are you even having that irrelevant conversation ?

Ill PM you privately because I don't want it discussed more in topic and I don't want the assassins to consider it

But I wasn't talking about what you said about THC should have stayed unknown

It's like you're trying to stir shit when I literally told you, my point wasn't referring to your THC thoughts at all. You talked about multiple things in your post with THC and I said I disagreed with you revealing that information. And yet you've not only doubled down in the topic only your THC opinion, but you've done it through PM when I literally wasn't referring to your THC opinion at all.

Furthermore, Xiao, now confirmed human, agreed with what I said and said the exact same thing in the topic. So I'm not the only player to have the human mindset to think the stuff you was saying was detrimental to town

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

THC you started neutral on me and then me literally responding to you got you more and more suspicious lol. Do you want to give any content as to why you're suspicious?

I mean, I've already explained multiple times why I got even more suspicious of you, but with this new phase and your new posts, I can add something else. As I said before, it is now a 2/3 chance anyone who doesn't know their role is a ward and therefore should be ok with being lynched. Couple that with the fact I'm fairly confident you're not a hot target, it's very suspicious that you're still so adamantly defending yourself.

[Toby]

Hahaha just because we are at a point where allowing ourselves as normal humans to die is a benefit, doesn't mean I can't ask you to give reasons for your vote to avoid you just saying your suspicious because of vibes / or for literally responding to you lol

[Toby]

Alrighty, here's my general thoughts on everyone.

Xiao: Right now you're at the top of my suspicion list. The only issue with that is the reasoning behind it is also just the way you play every game. But since I don't feel that strongly about anyone else in particular, you are still my current top pick.

davy: I'm very neutral on you right now. BDS seems very convinced you're an assassin from what I skimmed, but I could see it going either way. The way I'll put it is that I likely won't vote for you, but I won't be upset if you get lynched either.

Toby: The fact I can't remember anything about your posts says a lot. I can remember the gists of pretty much everyone else's posts, but not a single thing about any of yours. That tells me that they probably weren't adding a whole lot to the discussion because they likely would have stood out more to me if they did. That being said, I don't find that to be enough to fully suspect you because if I did, then like half the players would also be suspect as assassins.

A#: I'd like to say I could tell you're trying really hard to give input, buuuuut you were really awesome at giving input in the last two games and deducting things. The lack of either of those thus far is a bit of a red flag to me. You may still be new, but you showed some great talent in the last two games. It's still early, though, so I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt for nowI.

Poet: I honestly can't really read you. You're not only new to TWG, but also new to the forum. As of right now, I have no basis for either your personality or playstyle. I would like to hear some more input from you.

math: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you've only made three or four posts so far, right? And one of them was to vote and another was just to agree with someone else's rationale. I think you might be at number two for me right now. I've got my eye on you.

BDS: I'm fairly confident you're town. All the things you've said thus far scream town!BDS to me, plus your response to my DMs just cemented it even more.

TZP: I'm 99% sure you're town. I won't disclose why publicly yet, but I feel it's safe to put you in my town drawer to gather dust.

Specs: ...I forgot about you. On the bright side, going back through your posts, I'm getting a slight town read from you. You seem to actively be trying to not only figure out the best plan for town and actively discuss about other proposed plans, but also get other players to be more active and get their thoughts on the discussion.

THC I'm curious as to why given your reasoning on math, why math was red number 2 but poet was only neutral in your suspicion list when they had contributed much the same?