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TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

Started by SpecsFlyer17, January 06, 2024, 10:01:40 AM

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TheZeldaPianist275

Glad to have that cleared up. Sorry Davy, that's kind of a sucky way to go out.

With Xiao's public and Davy's private claim, I'm pretty confident in THC at this point, and the question for me is whether a red check on Oricorio is enough to lynch. I'll now answer Oricorio's question from earlier about my check-free reads on people.

Davy: QED

Math: unfortunate

THC: In addition to being the uncc'd seer, the "message player (n) 'if I die, it was player (n+1)'" strategy feels like a very human play. It's not laying groundwork for a manipulation, it's trying to scare up information by seeing how people react.

BDS: Even though I trust THC right now, I don't share his feelings on BDS, at least not to the same extent. In particular, BDS bringing up the most tinfoily interpretations of events possible--which I believe he's done twice now--feels like human behavior to me, because it assumes the absolute worst-possible outcome in such a way discourages people from taking things at face value. This seems to me to be reminiscent of the paranoid BDS of yesteryear, always on the lookout for wool being pulled over his eyes. That said, BDS is able enough to blend in, and the "know when to move in and out of the shadows" wolf strategy he described earlier could, I think, apply to him this game as well. Short answer: I don't know, and I'm not casting my vote based on THC's spidey-sense.

Oricorio: As I said on D1, Oricorio is the player putting in the most work, and as I said on D1, this isn't a guarantee of humanity. I'm going to go back through your posts a bit later today to try to discern any unexplainable pushes. Also, I don't think refusing to go along with Davy's dead man's hand play gives human points--wolf!Oricorio has far more to gain from revealing that message than from going along with it. Short answer: I don't know on Oricorio either.

Toby: Probably Santa. If you're reading this Toby please make your last nicelisting count!

Xiao: I really have no idea where the two-post level of activity has come from. It's plausible, I suppose, that Xiao wants to switch up the meta and play inactive as a wolf. If I recall correctly, Xiao has expressed frustration in postgames before about a) losing every game and b) being read incorrectly by people every single game. So perhaps this is the game where he throws up his hands and says "screw it, I'm hiding the whole game." This theory always has the weakness that it's just not fun, for either team. Why play if you're not going to, you know, play?

So right now I think the Grynch is between BDS and Oricorio, and the red check on Oricorio makes me think that we should probably lynch him. I'm not married to this plan, though, and I suppose most of all I want to hear from THC why he's still rock-solid confident that BDS is the Grynch and Oricorio is Scrooge. Also, despite being a confirmed 3rd-party, Davy often has very good reads, and the fact that he threw a hailmary banking on Oricorio being the Grynch carries some weight with me.

ThatHiddenCharacter

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 11, 2024, 11:51:56 AMTHC: In addition to being the uncc'd seer, the "message player (n) 'if I die, it was player (n+1)'" strategy feels like a very human play. It's not laying groundwork for a manipulation, it's trying to scare up information by seeing how people react.
I will say, that Xiao's response was:
Quote from: XiaoMigros on January 09, 2024, 09:06:35 PMnoted, thank you
Which strikes me as a bit odd.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 11, 2024, 11:51:56 AMI want to hear from THC why he's still rock-solid confident that BDS is the Grynch and Oricorio is Scrooge.
I suppose at this point, I'd just be way more upset if I was right and we lost because I followed the herd than if I was wrong and we lost because I stuck to my guns.

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Oricorio

The main reasons why Xiao would lay low are if they're blue or the Grandma, and since we have ruled both of those out, I think they should be pushed harder here. They were paying enough attention to say they weren't blue, but not enough to post any real thoughts about the game, what gives?

Oricorio

The weird thing about THC's messages is they are basically begging people to wolf him, and why would a Seer do that, even if he didn't send a message to his biggest wolfread? It almost seems like a Grandma play to try to draw in the wolf kill so the Grinch knows who Grandma is, except that doesn't make sense either as the Grinch already most likely knew who Grandma was. Overall, it's weird.

TheZeldaPianist275

Quote from: davy on January 11, 2024, 11:26:28 AMAnd good luck surviving this, BDS!

Wait, what is this in reference to? THC's gut feeling on BDS or something else?

BlackDragonSlayer

Popping in real quick to say I'm neither the seer nor Santa. As has been said earlier, that very likely means that Toby was Santa.

Some may be wondering why Oricorio (assuming he's the Grinch) would oust Davy as Grandma when there might still be a chance to lynch Grandma, but honestly, I think he realized that there was a near 0% chance for Grandma to get lynched after a reliable seering and just gave Davy up because that's what any sensible human would do.

From my perspective, if Oricorio isn't the Grinch, the final pick would be between TZP and Xiao. TZP, although he's proven himself a reliable mouthpiece for the seer, and has (IMO) generally seemed human all game, still isn't confirmed. I could see him revealing the seering results even as the Grinch simply because he'd be forced to, and because the results don't necessarily harm him either way. Meanwhile Xiao has been completely inactive, and there's little telling whether that's actually genuine or just a ploy.
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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BlackDragonSlayer

Quote from: Oricorio on January 11, 2024, 12:09:22 PMThe main reasons why Xiao would lay low are if they're blue or the Grandma, and since we have ruled both of those out, I think they should be pushed harder here. They were paying enough attention to say they weren't blue, but not enough to post any real thoughts about the game, what gives?
I agree with the idea that Xiao should be pushed harder, but the start of that sentence seems a bit absolutist.

We definitely need to hear more from Xiao if that's at all possible. Right now, I am leaning between voting Xiao and Oricorio (as I mentioned, I feel like TZP has generally been more humany the entire game), and would very like to get more clarity on the Xiao side of the equation.

Quote from: Oricorio on January 11, 2024, 12:25:18 PMThe weird thing about THC's messages is they are basically begging people to wolf him, and why would a Seer do that, even if he didn't send a message to his biggest wolfread? It almost seems like a Grandma play to try to draw in the wolf kill so the Grinch knows who Grandma is, except that doesn't make sense either as the Grinch already most likely knew who Grandma was. Overall, it's weird.
That's just THC. I don't feel there's a credible reason to believe that THC isn't the seer, especially after Davy's confirmation. If THC isn't the real seer, it would mean that both specials would have to be dead.
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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XiaoMigros

Quote from: Oricorio on January 11, 2024, 12:09:22 PMThe main reasons why Xiao would lay low are if they're blue or the Grandma, and since we have ruled both of those out, I think they should be pushed harder here. They were paying enough attention to say they weren't blue, but not enough to post any real thoughts about the game, what gives?
I've had enough time to read through some of the stuff here but not enough time to actively engage with most of the happenings. If there's anything that can be done to make your lives easier please say

BlackDragonSlayer

Quote from: XiaoMigros on January 11, 2024, 09:15:24 PMI've had enough time to read through some of the stuff here but not enough time to actively engage with most of the happenings. If there's anything that can be done to make your lives easier please say
What are your thoughts on the players who are unconfirmed (aside from yourself): TZP, Oricorio, and me?


THC is the uncounterclaimed seer, and Davy is Grandma.
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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SpecsFlyer17

Around 14 or so hours until D2 ends.

BDS: 1 vote (THC)
davy: 1 vote (davy)

Note this reflects the votes submitted and does not include any potential adjustments made from the naughty list.

If you see a mistake, let me know.
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Oricorio

Quote from: XiaoMigros on January 11, 2024, 09:15:24 PMI've had enough time to read through some of the stuff here but not enough time to actively engage with most of the happenings. If there's anything that can be done to make your lives easier please say

Just post actual thoughts on the game. You are the player I have the least reason to townread (with the obvious exception of davy) and I don't want this to be a loss just because you slanked the whole game.

Oricorio

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on January 11, 2024, 02:22:31 PMPopping in real quick to say I'm neither the seer nor Santa. As has been said earlier, that very likely means that Toby was Santa.

Some may be wondering why Oricorio (assuming he's the Grinch) would oust Davy as Grandma when there might still be a chance to lynch Grandma, but honestly, I think he realized that there was a near 0% chance for Grandma to get lynched after a reliable seering and just gave Davy up because that's what any sensible human would do.

From my perspective, if Oricorio isn't the Grinch, the final pick would be between TZP and Xiao. TZP, although he's proven himself a reliable mouthpiece for the seer, and has (IMO) generally seemed human all game, still isn't confirmed. I could see him revealing the seering results even as the Grinch simply because he'd be forced to, and because the results don't necessarily harm him either way. Meanwhile Xiao has been completely inactive, and there's little telling whether that's actually genuine or just a ploy.

I mean, if TZP is the Grinch, I would see him pushing me a bit harder for being red-checked. Then again, maybe he thinks he doesn't need to? It'd still be weird

Oricorio

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 11, 2024, 11:51:56 AMGlad to have that cleared up. Sorry Davy, that's kind of a sucky way to go out.

With Xiao's public and Davy's private claim, I'm pretty confident in THC at this point, and the question for me is whether a red check on Oricorio is enough to lynch. I'll now answer Oricorio's question from earlier about my check-free reads on people.

Davy: QED

Math: unfortunate

THC: In addition to being the uncc'd seer, the "message player (n) 'if I die, it was player (n+1)'" strategy feels like a very human play. It's not laying groundwork for a manipulation, it's trying to scare up information by seeing how people react.

BDS: Even though I trust THC right now, I don't share his feelings on BDS, at least not to the same extent. In particular, BDS bringing up the most tinfoily interpretations of events possible--which I believe he's done twice now--feels like human behavior to me, because it assumes the absolute worst-possible outcome in such a way discourages people from taking things at face value. This seems to me to be reminiscent of the paranoid BDS of yesteryear, always on the lookout for wool being pulled over his eyes. That said, BDS is able enough to blend in, and the "know when to move in and out of the shadows" wolf strategy he described earlier could, I think, apply to him this game as well. Short answer: I don't know, and I'm not casting my vote based on THC's spidey-sense.

Oricorio: As I said on D1, Oricorio is the player putting in the most work, and as I said on D1, this isn't a guarantee of humanity. I'm going to go back through your posts a bit later today to try to discern any unexplainable pushes. Also, I don't think refusing to go along with Davy's dead man's hand play gives human points--wolf!Oricorio has far more to gain from revealing that message than from going along with it. Short answer: I don't know on Oricorio either.

Toby: Probably Santa. If you're reading this Toby please make your last nicelisting count!

Xiao: I really have no idea where the two-post level of activity has come from. It's plausible, I suppose, that Xiao wants to switch up the meta and play inactive as a wolf. If I recall correctly, Xiao has expressed frustration in postgames before about a) losing every game and b) being read incorrectly by people every single game. So perhaps this is the game where he throws up his hands and says "screw it, I'm hiding the whole game." This theory always has the weakness that it's just not fun, for either team. Why play if you're not going to, you know, play?

So right now I think the Grynch is between BDS and Oricorio, and the red check on Oricorio makes me think that we should probably lynch him. I'm not married to this plan, though, and I suppose most of all I want to hear from THC why he's still rock-solid confident that BDS is the Grynch and Oricorio is Scrooge. Also, despite being a confirmed 3rd-party, Davy often has very good reads, and the fact that he threw a hailmary banking on Oricorio being the Grynch carries some weight with me.

I am not entirely sure why you are discounting Xiao here, even if I do get that it can feel bad to lynch inactives. Still, that doesn't change the fact that he seems to be the only one besides davy who doesn't seem interested in solving the game.

Oricorio

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on January 11, 2024, 03:39:38 PMI agree with the idea that Xiao should be pushed harder, but the start of that sentence seems a bit absolutist.

We definitely need to hear more from Xiao if that's at all possible. Right now, I am leaning between voting Xiao and Oricorio (as I mentioned, I feel like TZP has generally been more humany the entire game), and would very like to get more clarity on the Xiao side of the equation.
That's just THC. I don't feel there's a credible reason to believe that THC isn't the seer, especially after Davy's confirmation. If THC isn't the real seer, it would mean that both specials would have to be dead.

I mean, those are the standard strategic reasons, and XiaoMigros is paying enough attention that not having time can't be a complete answer? As for THC, to be fair it wasn't exactly hard to figure out that davy was Grandma, plus the Grinch most likely knew who Grandma was anyway, still I agree that any scenario where THC is the Grinch is incredibly convoluted and I would not lynch there

Oricorio

Looking back at Toby, he voted Xiao for no apparent reason despite having a suspicion on davy. Maybe w!Xiao assumed Toby was the Seer and had a red result on him, especially if Toby was seered blue by the Grinch (which I mean, he's almost certainly Santa). Still, was Xiao paying enough attention to be able to make that move? I mean, he's clearly paying some level of attention, but it's hard to tell to what extent given that he hasn't posted any real game-related thoughts