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TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

Started by SpecsFlyer17, January 06, 2024, 10:01:40 AM

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SpecsFlyer17

One hour left in D2.

Xiao: 2 votes (Oricorio, TZP)
Oricorio: 2 votes (BDS, THC)
davy: 1 vote (davy)

Note this reflects the votes submitted and does not include any potential adjustments made from the naughty list.

If you see a mistake, let me know.
Current Breathing Mode: MANUAL

TheZeldaPianist275

Lore dump. sorry for the 11th-hour update.

Spoiler
--n2--
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 09, 2024, 08:52:47 PMOk, I told davy that if I die tonight, Oricorio is the Grinch. So if I die tonight, davy is the Grinch trying to frame Oricorio. If I don't die, then BDS is the Grinch.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 08:10:43 AMSo you're not as set on BDS as you made it sound in the thread? Why not?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 09:03:15 AMOh, I'm 100% set on BDS. I'm trying a gambit that I realized actually just makes things more complicated, but I was already high on sowing chaos by the time I finished setting it up. I've sent that same message to every player, but one off. So, for example, I told Xiao that I told you that if I die tonight, it's davy, and so if I die it's you trying to frame davy. So on and so forth. The reason I'm telling you this is because I actually trust you the most right now. Since you showed up and started posting more, you've read very town to me. I will say that Xiao's response was "Noted", so if I do die, then Xiao is likely the Grinch since I doubt BDS would wolf me as the Grinch because I'm plenty sus enough for him to keep me alive. I still fully believe BDS is the Grinch, but there's always room for error. You're my backup plan if I die, now. Thanks for volunteering.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 09:58:26 AMHa. Occurred to me you might be doing that, and actually it's a strategy that's occurred to me in prior games lol--not sure why it hasn't been used before. Why are you so 100% on BDS? Your gut has been good before, but it's been wrong before too.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 10:03:40 AMI'm not sure. I just have that same feeling I had in the assassin's game. I was so positive he was an assassin and I was his ward, and I was right. If I have that same feeling again, I feel like I should stick to it. I have always been the kind of person that can subconsciously read people without realizing I'm reading them or being able to put it into words. I'm usually the first to tell when someone's a gross person before it becomes apparent to everyone else. So I trust my gut implicitly.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 10:06:33 AMAt this point, I'm just waiting until phase end without responding to anyone (except you, obviously), so I can see what happens. I'm fairly certain I won't die this phase, as the only player I would see doing that at this point would be Xiao. That's why I want you to preach that if I do die. Cause if I die, then it's most likely Xiao. But if I don't, which I likely won't, then I fully believe it's BDS.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 12:59:43 PMI don't think you're a wolf, but I'm waiting till the last minute to send this just in case. I am the seer, and Davy flipped Grandma last night—dead to rights.
--now D2--
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 01:04:49 PMIf you're actually telling the truth, that is hilarious. It just goes to show I should never doubt my gut. Unless you're lying, but at this point, I highly doubt it. If you rolled wolf again, then you deserve the win at this point anyway. But I still believe it's BDS. The Toby wolfing is interesting, I'll need to recheck my PMs to see what I said to who.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 01:22:31 PMAgreed, anything you have would be helpful--let me know what you come up with. Also I want your thoughts on this: I just got a red check on someone for N2. I'd like to stay hidden for longer just in case we go to N3. My suggestion is this: what if I go public in the thread and say "the seer wants to stay hidden, but he trusted me to pass on his results, and here they are"?

the Grynch will then try to figure out who the seer was. He might decide it's you (since you're near the bottom of my suspicion list) and make you the target N3, and I get to live for one more night's seering if we haven't won by then. What do you think of that plan?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 01:24:09 PMI am more than willing to go along with that. Also, none of my PMs really helped with figuring out anything since Toby was wolfed. My only guess is that it was likely an experienced player.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 01:37:00 PMDo you think it would be better for me to say (falsely) that the seer contacted me with these results or for you to be the one to break it and say (truthfully) that the seer contacted you with these results?
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 10, 2024, 01:50:21 PMNo one would be believe me at this point. I've gone off the deep end. Most people seem to be townreading you, though.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 10, 2024, 02:29:46 PMIf you want to claim seer publicly, I won't counterclaim you--for now at least. Let's see where this goes.
--Oricorio rats out Davy--
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 11, 2024, 11:24:30 AMAnd with that message from Oricorio, I now trust you 100%. This is certainly an interesting turn of events.
[close]

---

TL;DR I'm the seer, not THC. I was going to sit on this until the last few seconds of N3 to try to survive for one more seering, but it sounds like that's not going to be helpful since my power is unlikely to pick up another red. For those of you upset that I banked so much on a THC read, I apologize--I know it was risky. Everything that has been claimed re: the seer in the thread is true, just with THC and my names switched. And to be clear, I still believe THC to be human based on my interactions with him--his reaction to my claiming seer privately was very human. I think it's only fair, though, that everyone has all the information before the phase rolls over, since keeping it to myself has a very small potential upside.

Oricorio

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 12, 2024, 12:00:31 PMLore dump. sorry for the 11th-hour update.

Spoiler
--n2----now D2----Oricorio rats out Davy--
[close]

---

TL;DR I'm the seer, not THC. I was going to sit on this until the last few seconds of N3 to try to survive for one more seering, but it sounds like that's not going to be helpful since my power is unlikely to pick up another red. For those of you upset that I banked so much on a THC read, I apologize--I know it was risky. Everything that has been claimed re: the seer in the thread is true, just with THC and my names switched. And to be clear, I still believe THC to be human based on my interactions with him--his reaction to my claiming seer privately was very human. I think it's only fair, though, that everyone has all the information before the phase rolls over, since keeping it to myself has a very small potential upside.

That does make some sense, as THC's gambit didn't make sense for the Seer and his targets didn't make sense with his general progression. Still, I'll have to look over THC again so late in the phase. I had him as a townread before all this, and I think this debunks any tinfoil on THC being Grandma once and for all (as it was someone else that had the seer check on davy, meaning it's not a deflection from THC being the real Grandma), but still, it's good to consider every possibility this late in the game.

Oricorio

Looking back at THC's D3, it's mostly just pushing BDS and fakeclaiming Seer as per the gambit. I mean, I'd like to see his thoughts now that he's free from having to fakeclaim, but there's nothing here that really changes my opinion of the slot.

SpecsFlyer17

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 12, 2024, 12:00:31 PMI'm the seer, not THC

To clear up ambiguity, although the sentence was bolded, this is not counting as a vote.

TZP, if you intended to vote for THC, please recast.
Current Breathing Mode: MANUAL

ThatHiddenCharacter

Quote from: Oricorio on January 12, 2024, 12:13:12 PMLooking back at THC's D3, it's mostly just pushing BDS and fakeclaiming Seer as per the gambit. I mean, I'd like to see his thoughts now that he's free from having to fakeclaim, but there's nothing here that really changes my opinion of the slot.
Yeah, I still believe BDS is the Grinch, but I also don't want to spread out the votes too much either, which is why I opted to vote for you. At this point, there are three people that could be Grinch. You, Xiao, or BDS. If we spread out the votes too much, davy's vote on himself could end up screwing us over. So I opted to vote for you since, at the time, you were the only one else that had been voted for. I would like to point out that it's unlikely the Grinch wolfed players they naughty-listed, so worst case scenario is that two of our votes don't count at all. As of right now, that leaves us at a worst case scenario of a KitB. I think the vote setup right now actually gives us the highest chance of voting out the Grinch, so I'd honestly suggest we keep it as is.
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TheZeldaPianist275

We're not going to be able to guarantee no naughty-list shenanigans unless all four remaining humans unanimously vote the Grynch. And if we whiff, it's up in the air whether we even get a D3. If you actually think it's BDS, now is the time to explain, THC.

Oricorio

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on January 12, 2024, 12:24:02 PMYeah, I still believe BDS is the Grinch, but I also don't want to spread out the votes too much either, which is why I opted to vote for you. At this point, there are three people that could be Grinch. You, Xiao, or BDS. If we spread out the votes too much, davy's vote on himself could end up screwing us over. So I opted to vote for you since, at the time, you were the only one else that had been voted for. I would like to point out that it's unlikely the Grinch wolfed players they naughty-listed, so worst case scenario is that two of our votes don't count at all. As of right now, that leaves us at a worst case scenario of a KitB. I think the vote setup right now actually gives us the highest chance of voting out the Grinch, so I'd honestly suggest we keep it as is.

You have to consider that the Grinch can Naughty List people, so there's no guarantee that this is a true KitB. If anything, t/w "tied" wagons seem more likely to take out town

In any case, have any thoughts now that you no longer have to fakeclaim Seer? What are your thoughts on Xiao?

SpecsFlyer17

About 15 minutes left in D2.

Xiao: 2 votes (Oricorio, TZP)
Oricorio: 2 votes (BDS, THC)
davy: 1 vote (davy)

Note this reflects the votes submitted and does not include any potential adjustments made from the naughty list.

If you see a mistake, let me know.
Current Breathing Mode: MANUAL

TheZeldaPianist275

Changing my vote to Oricorio. I just can't shake the red check.

SpecsFlyer17

Updated: About 15 minutes left in D2.

Oricorio: 3 votes (BDS, THC, TZP)
Xiao: 1 vote (Oricorio)
davy: 1 vote (davy)

Note this reflects the votes submitted and does not include any potential adjustments made from the naughty list.

If you see a mistake, let me know.
Current Breathing Mode: MANUAL

Oricorio

Guess I have no other choice. davy

I'd rather take the .1% chance that davy is a wolf than the 0% chance that I am a wolf. Still, I'd rather switch to any other viable option.

TheZeldaPianist275

All right, that gives me pause. If Oricorio is a wolf, getting Davy lynched right now would kill him.

ThatHiddenCharacter

Quote from: Oricorio on January 12, 2024, 12:27:31 PMYou have to consider that the Grinch can Naughty List people
I am aware, I specified that in my post. Which is why I also said worst case scenario is a 3-way kitb.

Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 12, 2024, 12:49:58 PMAll right, that gives me pause. If Oricorio is a wolf, getting Davy lynched right now would kill him.
Keep in mind it could be a gambit to try and make him look like he's not the Grinch. I mean, he dies either way at this point, yeah?
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TheZeldaPianist275

That is an extremely late-in-the-phase gambit to try to pull off. It's suicide for wolf!Oricorio if no one reacts to it.