TWG CXXI: True Love Game Thread

[SpecsFlyer17]

I think TZP/Specs looms larger in my mind than Specs/Nakah now

I understand where you're coming from, but I'm still in the camp that TZPs move was human play. If I were TZPs wolf partner, him switches the vote off me to a KitB still results in one wolf dying.

Re: Toby's PM share, I agree that statistics aren't necessarily the best proof but you voted for me so early on in the game. Barely any information had been presented at that point.

I'll see if I can make it before the end of the day, but I'm overseas and jet lag is hitting me hard.

[mastersuperfan]

I don't love any of the analysing of TZP being possibly a wolf at this point, I think it's pretty obvious he was a human

@Toby can you point out to me where exactly you think my logic goes wrong? we already discussed in thread that you'd have be very confident that your lover is a wolf to take them down as a human - more likely that they're a wolf than two other people combined - and compared to the wolf!TZP strategy I described, I think human!TZP making this play makes less sense given that in TZP's readslist Specs was 4 and BDS was 5. or do you think TZP was obviously human for reasons other than his dying play?

@mfs why did you choose to vote Specs over voting BDS yesterday?

as I explained here:

once I found out you and Toby were lovers, I didn't want to lynch you then because I had a decently solid townread on Toby. given BDS/TZP vs. Toby/Specs, I would've lynched BDS/TZP if Toby was the only one of those four I townread. however, after seeing BDS and TZP both say that they'd be willing to go down with each other, I townread both of them more strongly than before. it could have been a ruse on their parts, but BDS didn't fight very hard to stay alive (he didn't communicate with me about voting Specs) (and we know now that TZP really was willing to go down with the ship). because of that, and because of Toby's hasty last minute vote (which, I think, THC rightly sussed), I felt the odds of hitting a wolf were better by lynching Toby/Specs. it was close, though, and I didn't feel too bad about the kitb because I would've been fine to take the outcome either way.

tl;dr I saw TZP and BDS both express a human-like willingness to go down with each other and I took a bet on them being truthful about it.

But why would everyone by default go with toby tomorrow instead of one of us...?

If you and THC are the wolves, we still win by lynching THC today and you tomorrow. I'm not sure what you mean by this ending paragraph

sorry I have should been clearer, but what you said is basically what I meant. since Specs voted Nakah to break up the me/THC pair, I was suggesting as a compromise that we lynch THC/Nakah today. but if the game doesn't end (and I don't think it will), we'll ultimately end up me/raeko vs. Specs/Toby yet again, and both human!me and wolf!me would continue pushing for Specs/Toby, so agreeing to lynch THC/Nakah today wouldn't exonerate me at all. thus I don't think I see a benefit for me to make this compromise today instead of just pushing for Specs/Toby first

I understand where you're coming from, but I'm still in the camp that TZPs move was human play. If I were TZPs wolf partner, him switches the vote off me to a KitB still results in one wolf dying.

right, but if you (or Toby) were his partner you'd have a much better chance of winning solo than TZP would have. this is what I just explained

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Aright, I'm going to be asleep until after phase end, so I'm putting in my vote now. I already explained my reasoning, and I won't be around to respond to anyone questioning my vote until after the phase ends.

Specs

[mastersuperfan]

I think it's a bit absurd to think that this is a big wolf play orchestrated by me and THC. if we were truly the wolves I wouldn't pull this play at all and instead just sit back, because (a) THC has been universally townread and (b) mostly everyone still alive is neutral on Specs and Toby, including Specs and Toby themselves. thus if I don't come up with this big plan and me/raeko get lynched today, I think it's very likely that Specs/Toby get lynched d3 instead of THC/Nakah.

[Oricorio]

Votecount:

SpecsFlyer17: 2 (mastersuperfan, ThatHiddenCharacter)
Nakah: 1 (SpecsFlyer17)

Five hours left!

[Nakah]

I meant to do this earlier, but I just wanted to apologize in advance. I don't know which team you're on, but I knew from the moment the game started that I'd end up dragging you down with me, and I'm sorry. My playstyle is way too suspicious to others, I always get lynched.]


  If I ever die before the end of the phase....vote this guy...it could have been my partner all along....What if MasterSuperFan and ThatHiddenCharacter are the wolf alliance...I could have been instigated from the beginning by being teamed up with THC...I see both MasterSuperFan and ThatHiddenCharacter voting upon SpecsFlyer17...


    The others that have posted....I sense it...the blast of a shopping cart in nuts & bolts(I never was able to play it, mea culpa =<......is that what that is....the Ghosts from beyond saying WE WERE TOWN ONCE! AND YOU BETRAYED US and left us to gooOOOo![/b])


       Why did it have to come out to the podium with the acknowledgments in the background......as I write this final address as a post for today's phase..., I wish to say that it was the 'Face Shrine Theme,' from Link's Awakening DX; that I listened to while writing this. Then to exclaim that it is a TWG where I have seen MasterSuperFan come forth with the mimicry my endeavors upon the last page, as an AH hAh HAAH. I believe you are a wolf MasterSuperFan, and THC has been equipped with me in this game for the enjoyment of what might unravel.

      That being said....The next day seems to have done a 180 in meta logic and this is interesting.


          
              SpecsFlyer17 has spoken nothing other than the truth that occurs to my mind, so for both of them to turn against him.
          It leaves it in its own lavender shades of .....sand dunes.



       So my vote simply goes upon MasterSuperFan.

[raeko]

I'm kinda starting to think MSF is wolfing too but I don't want to vote them unless I am damn sure as I mentioned earlier. I would not be confident enough for that. MSF/THC wolf pair might make sense? They sure were PMing a lot by the sounds of things. Which could just be an energy matching thing but idk

I guess I will vote for Nakah for now though THC would be my actual target. Just in case people aren't going to be around for EoD (which it seems like might be the case) and Nakah already has a vote on him. I think Nakah is probably human but they would both die either way so it doesn't really make a difference

[mastersuperfan]

if anyone wants to analyze PMs between me and THC, here is the full set of them front to back (fyi quoting a post with quotes doesn't include nested quotes, so some lines may be missing the quotes that they were responding to):

day 1 and aftermath

okay I wrote half this post before you switched your vote to Specs. the purpose was to coordinate a vote switchover but it seems like the opportunity is already there.

---

right now I trust you. I think we're going through the same mindset atm

I agree that maybe Specs/Toby might be the move given that they're so under the radar, and I feel less sus of TZP and BDS given that they're both okay with sac'ing themselves to kill their lover. BDS doesn't seem to be putting up much of a fight against getting lynched and he was the one I was sus of.

between the four pairs I currently think you/Nakah is mostly likely human/human. I can't help but think raeko might be a wolf and I'm almost wondering if I can try to bait her in some way in the last hour before phase end.

will wait a little bit longer for raeko to respond to my PMs. will keep you posted. some part of me is tempted to ask her which of BDS/TZP and Toby/Specs she wants me to vote for, and then vote opposite of that

Certainly an interesting plan, but I do think it has merit to it. And I do agree that those two pairs are likely the best lynch candidates for this phase.

actually, if she switches her vote off Nakah onto one of BDS/TZP and Specs/Toby, then me voting for the opposite will result in a kitb. I might still prefer that over following what she does

she sent this to me earlier:

and I responded:

and she hasn't responded yet. I just sent her another PM:

I want to see what she says.

who do you think the most likely wolf pairings are?

I could see it being either Toby with raeko or TZP or Specs with raeko or TZP. As of now, I think I'm more inclined for Toby/raeko. To list them in order:

Toby/raeko
Toby/TZP
Specs/raeko
Specs/TZP

Clearly, out of the four of them, Toby and raeko are my top individual contenders for wolves, as well.

thanks. I just reached the same conclusion, with the added possibility of raeko/BDS (what Nakah suspects). the possibility of raeko/BDS bothers me because raeko said earlier today she would be willing to vote TZP out, but hasn't responded since then after the pairings have come out and I asked her to help push a charge against TZP/BDS. she hasn't responded to anything nat all so I don't know what she's doing. I'm sus of her.

at the moment I think I trust BDS okay-ish enough not to worry about that too much. probably gonna vote Toby/Specs

I'm worried that raeko/TZP could also be a pair and they're distancing. I'm lowkey tempted to off myself to kill raeko

That is certainly a possibility. I will say, though, that is Toby/Specs is lynched this phase, raeko is likely to get my vote next phase, so it might still be worth sticking with Toby/Specs for now.

Currently, you and Nakah are the only ones I feel comfortable about. You in particular, your recent plays scream town, I feel very confident in you at this point.

I think I might actually off myself

if you and Nakah aren't wolves then the pairings are:

TZP/Toby
TZP/Specs
raeko/BDS
raeko/TZP
raeko/Toby
raeko/Specs

voting Specs gets rid of 4 of these 6 pairings. but so does raeko. maybe most of all, I'm disproportionately worried of a raeko/TZP pairing where they're currently distancing each other. raeko PM'ed me previously that she thought TZP was UTR - that kind of came out of nowhere, and now I worry it was a setup by raeko and TZP. likewise TZP's vote on raeko, and now TZP reaffirms it, but only now in the position where there's not a risk of TZP's vote actually killing raeko.

if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, I might be shooting town in the foot.

the downside is if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, in which case I might be shooting town in the foot.

it might be worth hanging on given that I seem pretty widely townread, and then push for raeko tomorrow. if the pair really is raeko/TZP, I think BDS will be on board. I don't know if Nakah will be on board.

ok WOW never mind TZP is forcing a kitb.

I'm going to hold my vote and see who dies. if TZP survives this I don't think raeko/TZP is a sensible pair anymore

btw I also told BDS about the plan to off myself last second. he didn't respond. at the time I thought he was probably human, but after seeing TZP suicide like that, I think that TZP (a) was probably human and (b) may have been onto something with BDS, even if I didn't see it.

if BDS was human, I'd guess the information probably died with him. if he wasn't, then it probably got passed onto his wolf partner, who could either be raeko, you, or Nakah. (highly unlikely he'd push onto Specs/Toby, and not me/raeko, if he was partnered with Toby or Specs, I think.) for reasons as discussed I don't think it's you, and I already told raeko I'd consider voting ourselves d2.

maybe keep an eye out on Nakah.

as BDS pointed out, TZP could also have been wolf and paired with one of Specs/Toby.

Yeah, I'm prepared to sacrifice myself if I start to suspect Nakah is a wolf. As of right now, I don't believe he is, though.

[close]

day 2

I'm going to maintain my trust in you. I have a really hard time seeing you paired with anyone as a wolf — not Specs or Toby, because you voted them at the end and contributed to the kitb; and probably not raeko, BDS, or TZP, because you seemed intent to vote them earlier. it could be a distancing play by you where you voted them but planned to change your mind before vote end, but the vote hopping (which we both did) seems moderately elaborate to devise as a wolf, and I think a wolf would be more scared of coming under fire for seeming inconsistent or throwing their vote around so much. it'd also be risky to place a temp vote on raeko or BDS if that could have been the catalyst for a wagon or an insta (and for BDS, it almost was). although if you were a wolf, maybe you would've unvoted if I hadn't done so immediately

by that same logic, one could construe my BDS unvote as indicative of me/BDS as a wolf pair, with my initial BDS vote as an attempt to distance. I wonder if anyone will try to bring this up

curious to see if Nakah tries to push on me today.

I still humanread Toby, even (especially?) after his BDS vote. if Toby's a human it makes a lot of sense to vote TZP/BDS based on probability if he read both you and me as human; if he was a wolf, I think he'd be more cautious about looking like he's jumping on a bandwagon. but maybe this is muddled by the fact that he didn't seem to have much time. I want to see him now that he says he can be more active. (it's also possible Toby's a wolf partnered with raeko or Nakah, and the fact that you and I have been widely humanread just gave him a convenient reason to go for the BDS/TZP lynch.)

I no longer feel good about Nakah. I don't feel bad about him, but right now he's right back in the pool with everyone else for me.

some more thoughts:

- if TZP was a wolf, I really only see him being paired with Specs (which I think is a pretty likely scenario!). I don't think he's paired with Toby because Toby voted BDS which ultimately got BDS/TZP lynched; if TZP/Toby were wolves, I think Toby could have voted raeko without coming under too much scrutiny. if TZP was a wolf with anyone other than Specs or Toby, I think he almost certainly would have let Specs/Toby die.

- if BDS was a wolf... idk. probably not paired with Toby or Specs because he also could have just joined the raeko train. possibly paired with raeko? Nakah seems to think so. or possibly paired with Nakah, and his initial Nakah push could have been a distancing ploy. I don't have great evidence for or against raeko/BDS or BDS/Nakah, other than that BDS didn't seem all that concerned about his survival at the end of the round there (if he was a wolf, he might've tried to convince you/me earlier to switch to Specs)

- if raeko's a wolf: raeko/BDS as aforementioned. as people have pointed out, raeko said she liked Toby's reasoning for voting Specs, even though the reasoning was not very much to go on. I don't think(?) raeko has responded to this? raeko/Specs or raeko/Toby are plausible — I suggested to raeko early on that I didn't want to lynch Toby/Specs because I townread Toby, and she was onboard with this. there's been basically... no visible interaction between raeko or Toby/Specs all game, which is interesting. raeko/Specs is made less plausible by the fact that Specs left his vote on raeko before dipping, and there was a reasonable chance at that time that me/raeko were in fact going to get lynch.

- if Nakah's a wolf: BDS/Nakah as mentioned. in his sus list he townchecks Specs, doesn't give a check on Toby. I find it interesting that he townreads you and wolfreads me... maybe this became more apparent at the end of the phase, but I think people (at least, TZP and Toby) have been reading us pretty similarly so far, and it's a little interesting to me that Nakah doesn't, although maybe it's because of your PMs with him. I think this hints toward Nakah/Specs, possibly Nakah/Toby, for me.

- the other thing I'm worried about is the world where raeko and Nakah are wolves. I think we've mostly established a consensus in thread that this isn't true, but... I can't help but wonder if all of the distancing that happened before was a big ploy. raeko did say she want to lynch you/Nakah, but I wonder whether they planned for raeko to do that and for Nakah to lead a charge against BDS so that you/Nakah wouldn't die, especially given that I had brought up my suspicions about the you/Nakah wagon. Nakah's "reaction test" vote on raeko also feels really out of place to me...

if raeko/Nakah were wolves, it would be weird that raeko initially suggested voting THC to me in PMs. this was early d1, and most notably, at that time most people were against the idea that we should reveal lover pairs d1. if raeko didn't think we would reveal lover pairs, sussing THC wouldn't distance herself from Nakah. (that said, she did say in the second half of d1 that she had changed her mind and was also thinking about revealing before I went ahead and did it.) maybe it was a long con by her to sus THC (but not go through with it), wait until we reveal lover pairs, and use it as a way to distance herself from Nakah.

in the end I still think raeko/Nakah is not super likely, but I still worry, because Specs/Toby seems like the "obvious" lynch for us to go for today, and if we do then raeko/Nakah get to run away with the win.

in short, my wolf pairs tier list:

highly plausible:
TZP/Specs
Nakah/Specs

pretty plausible:
raeko/Toby
Nakah/Toby

plausible:
raeko/Nakah
BDS/Nakah
BDS/raeko
raeko/Specs

not very plausible:
everything else

in general I find it really unlikely that anyone bussed their wolf partner - particularly any of BDS/TZP/Specs/Toby, because their lovers are all under suspicion too, and so bussing their wolf partner wouldn't make them that much less likely to get lynched d2.

I'm sus of Specs.

I've been thinking about if there's some sort of reaction test I want to pull today. not sure how to do it.

looks like Specs is starting to plant the seed of a narrative that I'm a wolf. I expect he's going to push hard for me/raeko today. this lines up with my suspicions of TZP/Specs or Nakah/Specs being the top possibilities...

I don't know if raeko was just busy for all of yesterday evening, but I can't help but feel like if she was a wolf partnered with any of BDS/TZP/Toby/Specs, she would have made more of an effort to come in and save her partner.

other than Specs now, the only other one who's wolfread me is Nakah. given that I'm less sus of raeko now that I was yesterday, in my eyes Specs/Nakah is currently the most likely wolf pairing - if so, I think they might push this together and try to secure a d2 win.

I might vote raeko as a reaction test, and see how they respond.

posted - to be clear, I do not actually want to lynch raeko anymore. what I have posted is a lie (Specs is my top wolfread right now) and I want to see how others respond.

if I'm right about Specs and/or Nakah, then me sussing raeko is probably right where they want me — although it also complicates their attempts to paint me as wolfy.

Not gonna lie, raeko's posts in response to both your vote and my accusations feel very much like a wolf. I don't think it was really a "oops, haven't done lovers in awhile", it felt like a wolf slip-up sincd she would know if her partner died.

I agree the lylo slip smells really wolfy, but... I dunno, the rest of her reaction feels very genuine and human to me, especially this part:

if raeko is a wolf, basically her only plausible partner at this point is BDS:
- raeko/TZP: TZP wouldn't have suicided with BDS
- raeko/Toby: Toby wouldn't be pushing raeko now, when (if my push were genuine) doing so means it's highly likely she'll die
- raeko/Specs: Specs wouldn't have voted raeko and left for the night at a time when raeko had the most votes
- raeko/Nakah: it's possible, but I don't think it's likely. it looks like raeko is willing to advocate for a lynch on Nakah to save herself here (see her response to Toby's message), and I don't think a wolf in immediate danger of being lynched would want to push it back onto her partner. plus she wanted to lynch you from the start of day 1

...which basically just leaves BDS. yet you said you thought BDS was town.

how likely do you think BDS/raeko is?

but, uh, yeah, if raeko's human, I think the lylo slip may have just dug town's grave

1. I disagree, that quote actually struck me as very wolfy as well. As town, I still say if when referring to myself as a possible wolf. And as I pointed out in the thread, she's already been told that dying does not go against the win condition.

2. I could see it. While I did feel BDS was town, I did still see some merit to the arguments that he could be UTR.

I mean, that's you, but I think with raeko I don't see her using an emotional defense like that as a wolf. I think a wolf would think that saying something like that wouldn't get them anywhere and make them seem desperate, so they wouldn't bother

---

what do you think of Specs' response to my vote?

---

I'm still planning to reveal that this was a ploy and launch a push on Specs, but I was hoping to wait until Nakah responds. given how quickly the anti-raeko ball seems to be rolling, though, I'm not sure if I should say something sooner

I do believe raeko is a wolf, but you are right that Toby/Specs is statistically a better lynch. There is one thing I disagree with you on, though. I think Specs/raeko is still viable. From the games we've played together, I could absolutely see Specs place a vote on raeko to distance and then just dip without paying attention to whether it would actually get her lynched or not.

I went back to look at it and... I mean, I guess it's possible; I think it's extremely unlikely. Less than 2 hours from phase end, Specs places a 3rd vote on Raeko, making it 1 Specs, 2 Nakah, 3 raeko, 2 BDS. he sticks around for a little bit, seemingly long enough to see BDS vote for Specs and also amass 4 votes before I unvote, making it 1 Nakah, 2 raeko, 3 BDS, 1 Specs.

then you switch your vote to Specs, making it a 3-way kitb, and I vote half an hour later. unclear whether he saw the 3-way kitb or not, but at a minimum, he saw that the vote was 2 raeko, 2 or 3 BDS. that's a really dangerous position to leave your wolf partner in one hour before phase end. so yes, it's possible, but it's so unnecessarily risky that I think it's really unlikely. even if it's his playstyle...? I don't know, I think there's basically no world where it's good for a wolf to do this

I also think that if Specs was wolf partners with raeko, he would be a little less fixated on the issue of my innocence and more focused on throwing sus elsewhere.

I hope Nakah and Specs get another chance to post before morning. I also want to see if raeko follows through and builds a strong defense for herself. I have my reveal post written up and I'm going to post it in the morning to throw a push onto Specs.

about Specs' post that I sent you earlier:it's extremely avoidant on giving any stance about my raeko vote, and instead fixates on how this makes me look, which I think really is not the important question. I think human!Specs, who has previously sussed raeko, would be much more interested on commenting on whether or not he agrees with my sus on raeko, or why he thinks I'm right/wrong. instead all he says on that is "MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov." my pov - what about his? I feel like it's a cautious middle ground that doesn't want to encourage a raeko wagon too hard so as not to seem wolfy, but also doesn't want to stop me from leading the charge myself and tagging along.

raeko seems pretty desperate to defend herself, and if she does so by the time I wake up, I'm going to townread her. I can really only see wolf!raeko being partnered with wolf!BDS at this point, and I don't think a solo wolf!raeko with a dead partner would be nearly as desperate to fight for survival as a town!raeko who thinks she's being mislynched. could be wrong

actually I don't know if I should just reveal now. I'm worried that if I wait till morning not everyone will be in time to vote before phase end, given it's a Monday and most players seem to be in pacific time

how long are you going to be around tonight? could I possibly ask you to post the reveal post on my behalf during the night? if so I can send it over

I'm at work, but I'm still checking things out intermittently. Just let me know when you want me to post it.

awesome, ty. here it is: https://pastebin.com/BiW32u9d

I'll leave it up to your discretion. see if you can catch people at a time that they're active? it's also possible that they just don't show up. I want to see Specs, Nakah, and raeko respond further, but it's not clear to me whether they'll pop back in tonight. earlier may be better than later, to avoid the possibility that someone doesn't have time to come back after it gets posted.

If there's no activity before 4am (3 hours from now), I'll post it then.

it's gotta be TZP/Specs wolves. I'm almost sure of it now. I think Specs tried to cover up TZP's motives for pulling the suicide play and now wants to portray you/me as a wolf pair because he knows he has to get both of our pairs lynched to win. I think that's also why he's indifferent between voting raeko or Nakah today

Honestly, when you explained it in the thread, it did make a lot of sense. I kinda agree with you. I'm just waiting to vote in case raeko or Nakah fall for the ploy because we both vote for Specs.

[close]

[Oricorio]

SpecsFlyer17: 2 (mastersuperfan, ThatHiddenCharacter)
Nakah: 2 (SpecsFlyer17, raeko)
mastersuperfan: 1 (Nakah)

2 hours remaining!

[mastersuperfan]

after seeing Nakah vote for me, I no longer know whether TZP or Nakah is the other wolf. in my eyes it's one of the following three pairs: TZP/Specs, Specs/Nakah, Toby/Nakah.

the possibility of raeko being a wolf is all but gone from my mind. if it were raeko/Nakah she'd just vote Specs to win here. if it were raeko/BDS, she'd join me in taking down Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah over the next two days instead of sussing me/THC.

from my pov:

if Specs gets lynched today, then the game ends if TZP was a wolf, or it continues if Nakah is a wolf. if this happens and the game keeps going, it will prove that me and THC aren't wolf partners, which I think should be enough to prove Nakah's guilt.

if Nakah gets lynched today, then tomorrow is me/raeko vs. Toby/Specs (I'm almost certain the game is going to continue). since THC is with me and Nakah against, and they both die, this basically postpones the (wolves are MSF/THC) vs. (there's a wolf in Toby/Specs) decision until tomorrow without a change in the net votes for or against.

if I get lynched today, then the game ends if wolves are Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah, or continues if wolves are TZP/Specs. then likely the game ends, but if it doesn't then it ends up Toby/Specs vs. THC/Nakah, which is again a 2v2. since THC will probably vote Toby/Specs and Nakah will probably vote THC/Nakah, it will depend on Toby and Specs.

[Oricorio]

Final votecount:
SpecsFlyer17: 2 (mastersuperfan, ThatHiddenCharacter)
Nakah: 2 (SpecsFlyer17, raeko)
mastersuperfan: 1 (Nakah)

By a KitB, SpecsFlyer17 is lynched and Toby dies of heartbreak!

Postgame thread coming soon.

[mastersuperfan]

fuckin called it