TWG CXXI Postgame: Finally a town win <3

[Oricorio]

Role reveal:
Wolves:
1. TheZeldaPianist275
2. SpecsFlyer17
Town:
3. raeko
4. ThatHiddenCharacter
5. BlackDragonSlayer
6. Toby
7. mastersuperfan
8. Nakah

Game summary:
D1: A lot of the day is related to discussion about whether it is better to reveal the lover pairs early or not, some players think that it will make discussions on who to lynch easier while others believe that they can catch a wolf slip if they're hidden for most of the day; ultimately, they all get revealed with nine hours remaining. Towards the end of the day, two main wagons emerge on Specs and BDS; as BDS was paired with TZP, this meant that  either option would have led to a wolf death. Ultimately, TZP votes BDS to save Specs; it goes to a KitB, which ends up killing BDS and TZP.
D2: Throughout the early phase, a town alliance of mastersuperfan and THC discusses the game, and mastersuperfan is able to deduce Specs as the most likely wolf and as the partner of TZP, leading both of them to vote Specs. However, the other townies don't seem to follow them, and ultimately Nakah becomes the counterwagon. However, Specs is unable to return in time to vote for Nakah, leaving it as another KitB, and this time Specs goes down, ending the game.

Player analysis:
1. BDS: Another entry in the "BDS was widely suspected and I'm not really sure why". You did get the right solve at the end and nearly succeeded in getting rid of Specs, but it was eventually stopped by an opportunistic wolf vote to force a KitB. Still, this didn't result in a bad outcome for town, but for future games you might want to work on getting people to TR you more.
2. ThatHiddenCharacter: Your alliance with mastersuperfan ended up being a huge benefit for town, and you did well in your resilience against SpecsFlyer's attempts to discredit the alliance. Sticking with Specs as a vote despite finding raeko more suspicious was also a good play, so I'll give you an honorable mention
3. SpecsFlyer17: This was definitely a rough game for wolves. Your entrance probably could have been better, as it was pointed out that it could be read from a wolfy perspective, and trying to directly go after the town alliance as a wolf is usually not a good idea; it's usually better to try to break up the alliance by TRing one and wolfreading the other, or to indirectly go against it by pushing one of their lovers. That said, the bad luck of being unable to show up in time to switch your vote, Toby not voting, and losing the KitB definitely did you in, and I can understand being upset with that result (I'm not a huge fan of the game being decided by RNG either). You did play a solid social game, as indicated by Nakah and Toby being unwilling to go after you at the end, so there is that.
4. Nakah - I feel your inactivity hurt you a bit, especially with you not making use of OC. I'm not entirely sure why you were suspecting MSF at the end. Ultimately, I feel the wolves were able to make a narrative off your passivity, and that nearly cost you in the end.
5. Raeko - I know you come from a different community and are probably not as familiar with this style of game, although statements like "You can't win if you don't survive" are probably just going to confuse people. You still did a pretty good job of towntelling though, especially at the end, even if you were a bit off as to who the wolves were.
6. TheZeldaPianist275 - I understand why wolves were desperate at EoD1, but I don't think your move of voting BDS really paid off. Number one, all the towncred doesn't really matter when you're dead, and two, what you did still left open the possibility that you were paired with Specs, something that MSF took notice of. If you wanted that to work, you probably should have been more openly skeptical of the Specs wagon for a while for that move to make sense from a town perspective. Of course, we'll never really know what would have happened in the world where Specs lost that KitB, but it shows why gambling on a KitB is an unreliable strategy anyway.
7. mastersuperfan - Easy MVP, your analyses were very helpful to town and you deduced the wolf team very easily. You also made the most effective use of OC, and your gambit with raeko helped further clarify your results. The one problem is you had difficulty convincing anyone outside of THC of your analysis, which could have led to a dead end, but you can't argue with results.
8. Toby - Again, the inactivity wasn't great and you seemed to be the most pocketed by Specs (either you or Nakah, anyway). Still, I suppose you do deserve credit for your vote on BDS being primarily motivated by your TZP suspicion, that is certainly an effective way of navigating this setup.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

That first KitB was absolutely AMAZING in hindsight Glad my suspicions were correctly and it wasn't actually a MSF/THC wolf pairing (which is something I worried about after reading the start of D2).

Also, would you be able to put up an interest poll for the next TWG?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Major, major props to MSF. His analysis was super helpful for the human team (and very on point) and definitely steered us in the right direction.

[mastersuperfan]

Major, major props to MSF. His analysis was super helpful for the human team (and very on point) and definitely steered us in the right direction.

I definitely thought during the back half of d2 that I threw the game by going overboard with my plays and ruining all semblance of townreads on me/THC loooool

[mastersuperfan]

definitely steered us in the right direction.

lol d2 I'm not sure I successfully steered anyone in the right direction

I'm pretty sure even THC was starting to doubt me near the end there

[TheZeldaPianist275]

That was terribad

[Nakah]

I agree, why didn't someone put the third vote onto me and give the wolves another chance lol... I wanted to self vote to mess up the kitb at the end, but then I realized in the rules itself that I brought here that you can't self vote. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


   GG's though, and sorry I totally misread Specs/MSF.

[mastersuperfan]

I agree, why didn't someone put the third vote onto me and give the wolves another chance lol... I wanted to self vote to mess up the kitb at the end, but then I realized in the rules itself that I brought here that you can't self vote. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I didn't know you couldn't self-vote, or at least I wasn't aware that was in play this game. I was wondering why you weren't voting yourself — the fact that you didn't made me go back to thinking it was you/Specs (or you/Toby) instead of TZP/Specs and you were banking on Specs (or Toby) coming back to switch his vote to me

I am really curious to know how a d3 with me/raeko/Specs/Toby would've played out though

[BlackDragonSlayer]

That was terribad

I think your ploy of voting for yourself (or, yourself via voting for me) was the best play under the circumstances, especially considering I had explicitly stated a willingness to lynch my lover if I believed they were a wolf. If we had lived, I'm not 100% sure if I would've voted for you again right away (I think I likely would've gone for one of the other pairs as a way to hedge my bets), but it's likely I would have tried to pursue a lynch against you for D3. At the very least it would've made you look a lot more human had you survived.

[mastersuperfan]

I think your ploy of voting for yourself (or, yourself via voting for me) was the best play under the circumstances, especially considering I had explicitly stated a willingness to lynch my lover if I believed they were a wolf. If we had lived, I'm not 100% sure if I would've voted for you again right away (I think I likely would've gone for one of the other pairs as a way to hedge my bets), but it's likely I would have tried to pursue a lynch against you for D3. At the very least it would've made you look a lot more human had you survived.

you/TZP getting hit in the kitb was basically the ideal outcome for the wolves. if there had been more activity d2 or the second kitb went the other way I think Specs definitely could have won that

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Thanks for hosting Oricorio. I feel badly about how I played—I really do love this game but I'm struggling to find the bandwidth for very thoughtful playing—MSF had my number that whole game.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I think your ploy of voting for yourself (or, yourself via voting for me) was the best play under the circumstances, especially considering I had explicitly stated a willingness to lynch my lover if I believed they were a wolf. If we had lived, I'm not 100% sure if I would've voted for you again right away (I think I likely would've gone for one of the other pairs as a way to hedge my bets), but it's likely I would have tried to pursue a lynch against you for D3. At the very least it would've made you look a lot more human had you survived.

Also thanks for the kind words BDS. It was a last ditch attempt that I was pleased with, and it mostly had the desired effect, but honestly Specs and I played so sloppily it shouldn't have gotten to that point.

[mastersuperfan]

Also thanks for the kind words BDS. It was a last ditch attempt that I was pleased with, and it mostly had the desired effect, but honestly Specs and I played so sloppily it shouldn't have gotten to that point.

funnily enough, if you actually didn't make that play, there was a chance I was going to sacrifice myself with raeko last second, and then you/Specs might've won :p

[mastersuperfan]

(hope I'm not posting too much... definitely got a lil too invested in that game :p)

some last thoughts of mine

- I was definitely intentionally acting a little off-the-walls from the start of d1, like with that flippant Specs vote (although I was comfortable with that vote because Toby's vote gave me a strong townread on him; I probably should have just said as such off the bat!). it just seems fun to be constantly sowing some amount of low-level chaos :p

- I saw that I was being pretty consistently townread and was thinking "am I setting too high a standard for myself for when I actually get wolf?" after d2, evidently not

- I was pretty aggressive and transparent about my PoE and I think that probably made me susceptible to being manipulated by distancing plays. after seeing Toby pop in d2 and say he was leaning toward voting raeko, I ruled Toby/raeko out of my list, but then got really paranoid near the end of d2 whether I'd lose to a surprise Toby/raeko rush

- I think THC and I basically had the same moment of "oh shit who to vote" panic in the final hour of d1, which is why I went from wolfreading him to trusting him completely. from that point on I never doubted him for a second and I'm glad I was right

- after seeing myself and THC be pretty widely townread, I think I believed a little too hard in the infallibility of our humanness. I didn't expect my big play to blow up in our faces like that, although the push on us might've happened anyway after our conjoined vote hopping right before the d1 lynch.

- I probably could have done a better job d2 convincing raeko in PM's why I thought THC was town. that might've been crucial for getting the town win on d3 if the kitb had hit THC/Nakah, since Toby would've had a phantom on d3

- but in general I'm still surprised everyone was so suspicious of me/THC?? I feel like it'd be extremely on the nose for us to be wolf partners who had interacted that strongly and obviously throughout the game, in almost like a "so obvious there's no way" sense. maybe people thought we were either just really sloppy or doing reverse-reverse-psychology. (also it'd have taken an insane amount of effort to forge all those PMs lol)

- surprised that everyone was so sus of Toby...? in hindsight I can recognize BDS's point that TZP put Toby as his most human read to protect Specs, but d1 Toby was also my strongest humanread for basically the same reason. I started doubting my read in d2 a bit, but in general I never thought Toby's play seemed wolfy. BDS, did you just not notice I made this read too, or did you skip over it because you thought I was town for other reasons?

- BDS, if you hadn't brought up the possibility that TZP had a wolf partner in Toby/Specs right before the d1 lynch, I'm not sure I ever would've thought of it myself. you might've saved the game with that

- Specs' play subconsciously bothered me because he just kept giving these short snappy answers, but I don't think it consciously surfaced as a sus until d2. looking back, I'm surprised how many times I kept prodding Specs for answers d1 without me remembering!

- I wish I'd recognized Specs' cover-up of wolf!TZP's dying play before I did the reaction test — that might've given me ample ammunition to make a push on him without blowing up my credibility. in hindsight it's pretty clear that his first d2 post was already starting to plant the seeds of an MSF/THC narrative, which I didn't completely pick up on at the time

- I decided to go all out with the fake votepost because I was worried that if I did anything less, wolves would recognize it as a ploy and call it out. in the end it looks like it ended up with wolf!Specs still being skeptical and everyone else turning on me once I posted the reveal, so...

- I think my main downfall was that I spent way too much time in that game trying to get perfect information for myself, when really there's no way I could've, and my attempts to do so almost nearly backfired because I couldn't convince anyone besides THC about what I concluded. instead of contriving the reaction test to try to catch Specs making a wolfy post (which, well, did happen, but then by that point nobody was listening to me), if I had just focused on the posts he had already made I think I could've made a case that was much more likely to convince the rest of town, even if at that point I wasn't completely sure of wolf!Specs myself.

[close]

overall, fun game (even if the ending ended up being a lil anticlimactic). thanks for hosting, Oricorio!

[raeko]

GG everyone! Well played town ^^

Apologies for my complete lack of anything useful the entire game and going only for the wrong people lol

Thanks for hosting Oricorio. I feel badly about how I played—I really do love this game but I'm struggling to find the bandwidth for very thoughtful playing—MSF had my number that whole game.

I go through burnout cycles with TWG myself, even though I love the game too. The important thing is to just keep playing through the burnout and try your best!! A sloppy game or two can be good for your long term game if people assume you will always be sloppy and start underestimating you as a wolf

funnily enough, if you actually didn't make that play, there was a chance I was going to sacrifice myself with raeko last second, and then you/Specs might've won :p

ON DAY ONE?? When I wasn't even online ;_;

Oh man this brings up traumatic memories of the Champs game I was in last year and I was last minute (like, LAST MINUTE) lynched on D1, prompted by a townie, I was the JOAT and didn't even have time to claim as it was so last minute... I'm glad you didn't do that and add to my traumatic soul injury lol