TWG XXVII: Trick of the Trade

[Greg]

At Kman, I think most (well probably all) players in this game would be good enough to pretend to question your humanity. In fact they might be more careful to do so.

As for the Raymond issue... stop bringing the story into your arguments, Ray, it's supposed to be irrelevant to the actual game. As for the item claiming issue, the wolves have nothing to gain from wolfing someone with a guardian item, and safeguards are in place to stop them from wolfing the person with the seering item. As verm said, the more information the humans have, the better.

Wry's been rather ambivalent about everything this game, not just Raymond... he said nothing about the whole item claiming shenanigans, either.

[Raymondbl]

As for the Raymond issue... stop bringing the story into your arguments,

I only did it once 

Ray, it's supposed to be irrelevant to the actual game.

Exactly. If Wrydrn is both a wolf painter in the game and a painter in the story, then the story would have been relevant to the game, and Mashi doesn't want that, so if Wrydrn's not a wolf painter, then the story would not be relevant to the game, which is what I'm getting at.
 

As for the item claiming issue, the wolves have nothing to gain from wolfing someone with a guardian item, and safeguards are in place to stop them from wolfing the person with the seering item. As verm said, the more information the humans have, the better.

The wolves can be sure that the people with the guardian items aren't being guarded, because tghey cannot guard themselves.  Therefore the wolves would not risk having their wolfing blocked. 

The more information the humans have, the better.  The more information the wolves have, the better for them too.  However, three of the humans already have that information.  Would the wolves sacrifice all the humans having that information to have that information themselves?  I think so, since it's of little importance to the humans.   

I can say that I was given the second guarding item on night phase 1.  I was debating whether to guard SFK or Shadow (since I knew the possible repercussions of my joke) but decided to guard SFK instead because I deemed him as a more skilled player.  That was a mistake, I should have guarded the person most likely to be wolfed.  Idiot me. 

Kman seemed very human in the chat,

no he doesn't... he seemed same as before. Everything he said in the chat could've been said by either a wolf or a human. You're slowly starting to defend Kman and direct everyone's attention to me so Kman won't be lynched. 

If I were another human, I would advise everyone to keep their attention focused on Kman but to keep an eye on me too.  Just don't let Verm lead you away from him. 

Beginning with the stuff about you not suspecting Wry, I understand what Raymond said.  But the fact that something irrelevant to the game changed his opinion on whether or not Wry was a wolf is certainly concerning. 

The story would be relevant to the game if:

1. Wry is a wolf painter.  Why? Because he's a painter in the story. 

The story would only be irrelevant to the game if:

1.  Wry is a good painter in real life. 

2.  Wry is not a wolf painter. 

A Wry-Raymond-Someone else wolf pairing makes a lot of sense.  Wry's basically skirted the Raymond issue, which is one he as an experienced player should have an opinion on.  It would make sense if he were a wolf trying to push this issue under the table because he's trying to protect his wolf partner.  Conversely, Raymond decided that Wry was likely a human based on a name-drop in the story.  Based on my skimmings of his other posts, I haven't seen him conclude that a player besides Wry is a human.

Wry's probably kind of angry at me for dragging his name into this mess.  For all I know Wry could be a wolf. He might not be, and he might not trust me either. 

Of course I can't conclude another player is a human.  No blues, there are painters, millers, etc.  I'm just using the irrelevant-story as a source of some info. 

The wolves generally have more information than the humans.  The wolves thrive when people are confused because their knowledge allows them to know what's going on.  Thus, the less knowledge the general public has, the greater the advantage the wolves have.

yes, but the more knowledge the wolves have, the greater advantage they have too.  At the time of posting, I wasn't thoroughly thinking about it, but now I also think having that particular piece of information would benefeit the wolves more than it would benefeit the humans. 

I'm not sure if your third point was a step back saying you agreed with me then or not.

No, it's not.  You misunderstood.  I guess this is not all your fault then.

3. I also thought, at the time, that people claiming to the thread would have no harm.  However, there are some people that don't think that way, and I think those people are not wolves.

I meant, that

1. I had the same opinion that claiming to the thread would do no harm.

2. At the time of posting, I thought that wolves would definitely want people to claim to the thread.

3. so at the time of posting I concluded that people who were against claiming were not wolves. 

4. I concluded that anyone who was for claiming would have a chance of being a wolf, and at least one of them would be a wolf.

5.  I knew at the time that there were likely to have humans support claiming to the thread too.   

Full of contradictions, but my basic point is people who were against claiming were probably not wolves. 

to explain further, I think everyone that was for claiming would have their suspicion level upped by 5%, no more.  In my book, your suspicion level is around 60 - 70% right now. 

I guess the main point of my argument is that Raymond was suggesting that a lot of people could be wolves on Night 1 but seemed to assume that Wry wasn't for a reason that I hold no stock in.

I just thought they were a tad more likely than some of the others, because wolves were 90% sure to support claiming.  If you don't hold stock on it, you should at least understand why I hold stock on it.

This is compounded by the fact that Wry doesn't seem to have any opinion on whether or not Raymond's a wolf.  This is an advantageous position for a wolf to take because it allows him to avoid suspicion from both those who think he is a wolf and those who think he isn't.

No, it's just because Wry has no reason to trust me and I dragged him into the situation, he didn't really do anything. 

Since no one's voted for Kman yet, I might as well.  The biggest reason is because I think he was painted. 

[K-NiGhT]

Kman because if he was seered red, it makes him a threat

[Dude]

Kman because if he was seered red, it makes him a threat

I've seered kman green.

wat

[Raymondbl]

Guys I've got a gut feeling that one of the wolves last game is also a wolf this game.  That means SFK, Wry, or Blueflower.  Though gut feelings aren't really reliable, just wanted to throw this out... just in case I'm right. 

[vermilionvermin]

Raymond's been contributing enough that I don't want to lynch him if he is a human.

I'm going to vote Slow for now because he's quiet and jumped on Kman.  He could be a wolf trying to jump on the bandwagon.

[Jub3r7]

I believe slow was suspicious of him for the same reasons you were, vermillion.

Also, raymond, note that game stories have NOTHING to do with the actual roles. 
And kman was seered green, please change your vote xK.

And honestly I don't think kman was painted.
It might seem obvious to you that I was going to seer him anyways, but I really did have in mind to seer somebody else when I made that post.

[Jub3r7]

*By game roles having NOTHING to do with game story, I mean that if he was the painter in the story, it wouldn't change the probability of him being the real painter from it's original chance (1/12).

[Raymondbl]

Raymond's been contributing enough that I don't want to lynch him if he is a human.

you'll probably wolf me this night phase anyway.

I'm going to vote Slow for now because he's quiet and jumped on Kman.  He could be a wolf trying to jump on the bandwagon.

I agree that he's being oddly quiet this game, but his vote on Kman seems reasonable to me.  I would lynch Kman first.

You seem to be avoiding anything against Kman and instead find faults with other players. That means either you're a wolf or you don't suspect Kman.  I would like to know why you don't suspect him. 

Here are some things I thought of:

1. You can glean much information from wolfings.  Find the reason the player got wolfed, and if it's not something like framing someone or something then you take a look at the player's suspicion list and work from there. 

2. This night phase we should do the same thing as last night phase.  Seer and item 2 claims, item 2 person guards seer.  item 3 person guards whoever he thinks is the best player/most likely to be wolfed. 

And honestly I don't think kman was painted.
It might seem obvious to you that I was going to seer him anyways, but I really did have in mind to seer somebody else when I made that post.

Now that I think of it... it doesn't matter who you were going to seer.  I think the wolves would have painted him anyway, since he's practically the only suspicion there is.  Not one other person was suspected, so they would do good by painting Kman.  If Kman is a wolf, it wouldn't have been worth the risk to paint someone else.  I think there's around a 90% chance he got painted. 

An alternative theory is that you are a wolf, but I don't think so. 

[Raymondbl]

Gosh I look back at my posts and it's like I see wolves hiding in every corner.

[Jub3r7]

If you think you act like a wolf and know you're human, you should take a look at who you think is a wolf and reconsider it. d:

aka kman. I'm not really sure about vermillion but I'm going to have to say that it's more likely kman was 'framed' from the shadowkirby wolfing than having been painted green.

[Raymondbl]

aka kman. I'm not really sure about vermillion but I'm going to have to say that it's more likely kman was 'framed' from the shadowkirby wolfing than having been painted green.

Think about it.  If you were a wolf painter, who would you have painted?  SFK? Verm?  Shadow?  There would be almost no choice but Kman. 

Another alternative theory is that the wolves knew that we would know Kman is painted, so they left him be to make it look like he was painted green, trying to frame him that way.  I don't think it's likely though.

[SlowPokemon]

Umm...more than a little suspicious of Raymond, just cause there's no real reason to guard Shadowkirby, but you said you almost did? And then he was wolfed.

Gonna vote raymond for now because last time I jumped on things and ended up being wrong. This time I'm taking it a little more slowly.

I find it highly probable that Kman was painted green, though.

[Raymondbl]

Umm...more than a little suspicious of Raymond, just cause there's no real reason to guard Shadowkirby, but you said you almost did? And then he was wolfed.

If you read all my posts I told you all that In the IRC, when I left I made a joke saying "see you dead tomorrow!" I was actually meaning myself, but then realized it sounded like I was saying Shadowkirby was going to die.  That's why I was thinking about guarding him.  And I would have done well to, but was frickin' stupid. 

I find it highly probable that Kman was painted green, though.

same. 

[K-NiGhT]

Oops...i dunno where i heard red. Sorry Kman. Changing to Raymondbl cuz of his strange behavior.