TWG XLVI: Have it Your Way

[Toby]

Goddammit, the one day I get grounded is the day when 5+ pages come in.

That said, TZP's list is weird.

AND I AM OCTOCAT BOY, CHANGE THE NAME.

Nuh

[Yugi]

Nuh

Yuh

[Toby]

Socialfox has been modkilled!

[vermilionvermin]

I figured posting the top 5 from my suspicion list might be a good way to start off the day.

06. MaestroUGC:  Spitllama, BDS, Dude, and Maestro were the people who had access to my Liggy suspicion on Day 1 and didn't vote for it.  This is going to sound really pretentious, but that suspicion blew all others out of the water that day.  I know that blueflower was MILDLY suspicious, but really, there was no reason to vote for anyone other than Liggy that day if you saw it.  Dude's cardflipped green and posted 6 minutes before the phase was supposed to end.  BDS's was in theory 7 minutes after the phase ended and I have reason to believe he's human.  But Maestro seems like a pretty smart guy.  I give him the credit to figure out that not voting Liggy or leaving any opinion at all on him is generally safer.  It keeps both the people who think he's human and the people who think he's a wolf away from him.  I know he never posted an opinion on Liggy in the thread, and I know I had to ask him at least once in the chat.  Looking through my chatlogs (though I have forgotten to save some) this is the extent of his analysis of Liggy:

If I had to say whether or not he thinks Liggy's a wolf, this comment definitely leans more towards the wolf side but Maestro really takes neither.

12. Spitllama:  I find it odd that out of he, Blueflower, and TZP (the three who defended Socialfox), he gets the least attention despite the fact that he has what is, in my opinion, the most suspicious defense of the three. He makes a joke about the accusation but doesn't comment on its quality, using the excuse that he was just joking so the implication that he defended Social is inaccurate.  He's also up here for similar reasons why Maestro's up here.  He didn't take a side on Liggy on Day 1, though he definitely saw the accusation and he even made a post signifying that what I said indicated that Liggy and/or blueflower were wolves together.  The difference between Spit and Maestro is that Spit has recently taken a side on Liggy, and that's that he wanted to lynch Liggy and "ride the cardflip".  I guess we'll see what he meant by that, but I think it's odd that when he was the swing vote, he didn't do anything about Liggy but now wants to see him lynched.  The one potential good defense for this would be that he thought the logic was sound but wanted more people to weigh in on it before lynching Liggy, though he hasn't expressed that as the reason for why he didn't vote for Liggy on day 1.  I'll have to ask him about it.

16. K-Night:  Don't like the random statement that me, social, and TZP are his top three suspicions with no comment on Liggy.  As I'll probably state other places in this suspicion list, even Liggy admitted some of the accusations against him were good, so if you think he's human you best have a good reason or another reason for me to think you're human.  K-Night has neither at the moment.

10. Shadowkirby:  Usually, the best way to determine Shadowkirby's role is to put it in a random number generator, because that's what the host did.  Unfortunately, I tried that and got the number 6, which would make him the seer!  But this time Shadow's actually done something suspicious in his bandwagoning of the blueflower vote late in the phase yesterday.  However, the reason he's not higher on this list is because Bird died Night 2.  This is probelmatic for my suspicion of Shadowkirby because Bird was probably the most vocal person saying that he was a human.

04. Blueflower:  There was an OK accusation against Blueflower if you don't think Liggy was a wolf.  Or it was OK for a Day 1 lynch.  It's not enough for me to want to lynch him now, though, and Blue's one of the last people to do on this suspicion list.  I can find more of my reasons for Blue being suspicious in the big long Liggy log I posted.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

You do realize Blueflower's dead......

Verm, your attack on Spit has a lot of good points.  I think I'm going to have to go for him.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I would vote for spitllama, but once again (as I have mentioned that I think he's suspicious), I feel as if vermilionvermin is a wolf.

[MaestroUGC]

SocialFox

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I would vote for spitllama, but once again (as I have mentioned that I think he's suspicious), I feel as if vermilionvermin is a wolf.

Just.... feel?

Not attacking you, I've felt the same way.  But don't you have anything else to go on?

SocialFox

XD Or you?

[Yugi]

XD Or you?

He always votes for me every day.

I feel loved.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Just.... feel?

Not attacking you, I've felt the same way.  But don't you have anything else to go on?

Have you read what I've said previously (as in, all before this time period)?? Plus, now, the Liggy-lynch...

[K-NiGhT]

So I am on verm's suspicion list. That's coll. K-NiGhT grows tired of this.

[vermilionvermin]

K-Night, you're only third and the reason you're that high is because I'm still waiting on an explanation from you.

[vermilionvermin]

BDS, I can't really argue against a gut feeling, so I'm just going to defend myself to the best of my ability against what you've said previously in the thread.

This is the first post in which you disagree with me.  I don't know if it factored into why you think I'm suspicious, though.  The reason that I thought that Liggy was suspicious for being OK with being seered was that, as an experienced player, he should know that saying something along those lines makes people less likely to want to seer him because it comes off as neutral and "reasonable".

In this chatlog (CTRL + F "Blackdragonslayer" to find the part I'm talking about) you say I'm suspicious for changing my vote too many times.  I'm not sure if it's the fact that I did change my vote or who I changed my vote to that makes me suspicious.  I think you might be referring to my "reaction test" vote against Liggy on Day 1, which is distinct from my later vote against him on Day 1 and 2.  The reaction test vote was one just so that there would be two accusations out there. 

At the time, when Bird had accused blueflower, there were three people who defended him.  I thought that was odd, but ultimately there was nothing to compare it to.  As a result, I put up a vote for Liggy, came up with some weak reasons for it, and tried to see what happened with it.  When I changed my vote to TZP, I did so because I had an actual lead at that point.  When I eventually changed it back to Liggy, it was a result of the other parts of the chatlog I linked you to above.  In my opinion, the vote changes weren't suspicious because they were based upon information I didn't have when I had made my previous vote.

The explanation for my vote for Dude is pretty complicated, and I'm surprised I haven't been questioned about it by now.  I think Socialfox asked me about it in the chat, but you really shouldn't let me get away with being that lazy!  Here's my best shot at explaining it.  When I made the vote, part of it was based on the fact that I miscounted the votes and thought it was a four-way kitb between shadow, blue, dude, and Liggy when it was actually a three-way kitb between shadow, dude, and Liggy.  Shadow and Blue I had thought were likely human since Liggy had voted for both near the end of the day phase.  But Liggy's vote also made Dude very suspicious.  Right above his post Bird said it was "an ugly 3-way kitb".

Pretend that you're in the following situation as a human.  There's a three-way kitb between you, blueflower, and Dude.  Your vote's currently on blueflower.  The only logical thing to do here is to switch your vote to the inactive and save yourself.  Instead, Liggy votes for shadowkirby.  Liggy's vote for shadowkirby doesn't make sense if he's a human because at best he risks his own death in order to put his top suspicion into a 3-way kitb.  It would make way more sense as a human to save a confirmed human in himself and kill a potential wolf in Dude.  As a result, I thought there was a very strong possibility that Liggy and Dude were wolves together.

So now put yourself in my shoes.  There's a 4-way kitb between two people you think are suspicious and two people you think are not.  In order to break the kitb and ensure that a person I thought was suspicious got lynched, I changed my vote from Liggy to Dude.

I think the last thing that BDS expressed some concern over was my suggestion that we guard Mashi instead of Liggy on Night 2.  My reasoning for this was thus:  Mashi's not suspicious and already has a green seering.  Liggy is very suspicious and has no seering.  If I was wrong about Liggy, I would have welcomed the wolves wolfing him so I didn't have to waste the next lynch.  The wolves were likely going to kill either Mashi or the person we seered (assuming we seer a human), whichever one we didn't guard.  I would prefer that the person wolfed be the most suspicious player as opposed to a nearly-confirmed human.

[Toby]

Vote Count:

Socialfox- TheZeldaPianist
BlackDragonSlayer- Vermilionvermin
MaestroUGC- Socialfox
Vermilionvermin- Maestro
Bubbles
Shadowkirby
TheZeldaPianist- Spitllama
Spitllama
Jub
Mashi
K-Night- Knight

TheZeldaPianist- 1 (Socialfox)
Vermilionvermin- 1 (BlackDragonSlayer)
Socialfox- 1 (Maestro)
Maestro- 1 (Vermilionvermin)
Spitllama- 1 (TheZeldaPianist)
K-Night- 1.01 (K-Night, PHANTOM)
Jub- 1.01 (PHANTOM, PHANTOM)
Shadowkirby- 0.01 (PHANTOM)
Mashi- 0.01 (PHANTOM)

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Five-way kitb?  Hmm.

I know I'm new, but this seems bizarre.  Does this happen often?