TWG 63: Second Chances

[fank009]

That is, unless nobody claimed to TST, in which case, poor TST.

(more like TST didnt organize an aliance)
Im guessing thats the case, Kman was complaining about tst doing a horrible job

[vermilionvermin]

Now that I know TST didn't have time to set up the alliance, I feel more comfortable voting for NocturneofShadow though this vote could easily switch to Dude.
I got the following PM from NocturneOfShadow earlier today:

You're the Traitor-Shaman :O

I assumed Nocturne claimed to have seered me orange and was claiming wolf to me.  Since I am a human, I assumed that meant I was the millwright.  So I PM'd him the following.

Hey there, Nocturne!  I guess you've found us then (and you're the shaman).  I am the Traitor-Shaman, and I actually seered you green last night.  At least I can be sure you're not actually the human seer.  Mashi was the assassin (lol he was actually serious about that) so I'm going to push for him to be revived today.  I think I can make a fairly reasonable argument for his revival.  Who's the Corpse Mangler?  I don't want to accidentally lynch a wolf today.

I BCC'd Dude on the PM.  This was so that some other player knew that I was lying about what I had said in the PM.  I thought it was a real possibility that Nocturne was a human and just performing a reaction test, so I sent my claim to Dude in the hopes that he'd be my witness that I was lying if I needed it.  I would've picked a dead player, but I asked Bird about that and he said that was a no-no.

Then Dude and Nocturne voted for me.  After talking to Nocturne, I gathered that this was because I had "claimed wolf to him".

I then received the following PM from NocturneOfShadow.

I will say a few things.  Dude says you sent this pm to him too.  If you did one of us will have to die.  PM back if you need to know more.

I believe that Nocturne and Dude are wolf partners.  There's no reason for Dude to ruin my test unless he fears the result.  And there's no reason for Nocturne to PM me out of the blue asking if I'm the traitor-assassin in particular.  He said in the chat that there was one post of mine during Night 1 that made him suspicious, but that shouldn't make him think that I'm any particular wolf role.  This leads me to believe that I am the millwright and was seered orange by NocturneOfShadow, the Master Wolf Shaman.

[Bird]

Revive Votes:
NocturneOfShadow - Greg
Dude - Greg
Olimar12345 - Greg
K-NiGhT - Greg
vermilionvermin - Mashi
BlackDragonSlayer - Greg
Toby - Greg
fank009 - Greg

Lynch Votes:
Kman96 - BDS
Dude - vermilionvermin
K-NiGhT - Dude
NocturneOfShadow - JDMEK5
fank009 - K-NiGhT
vermilionvermin - NocturneOfShadow

Current revive target is Greg.
Current lynch target is TBD.

Phase ends in 20 hours.

[Olimar12345]

Convincing, verm. I'll vote nocturne as well, until a better option rises. 

[BlackDragonSlayer]

...wait a minute Verm...

Sorry to be a devil's advocate yet again, but you're essentially saying that it's not possible that Dude contacted Nocturne because he thought you were a wolf (especially since Nocturne was the one who initiated the PM chain, not you)? Nocturne's second PM (the one containing "If you did one of us will have to die.") implies that, if Nocturne were a wolf, he would not be associated with Dude. You're also forgetting the fact that YOU brought Dude into the situation.
I think there is a great possibility that Nocturne's PMs were, in fact, a reaction test, although less likely than another player who's probably more familiar with using reaction test strategies.

You also say that "there's no reason for Nocturne to PM me out of the blue asking if I'm the traitor-assassin," but:
1: It would make no sense to PM you last night, since the shaman's power would not have occurred yet (obviously)- though it's possible that he was already suspicious of you by then.
2: It actually makes sense for him to ask if you're the traitor-assassin, because there's only one other role that's orange (millwright), but a green or red seering would be more unreliable, and wouldn't necessarily say if you were a wolf or not. Think about it for a minute (or more).


...you know what... I've actually convinced myself of an argument I wasn't entirely sure of before. Thank you Verm.

[vermilionvermin]

The reason I'm sure that he wasn't going for a reaction test is because I asked him when it was all over.  He said that one post (this one) made him think I might be the wolf assassin.  The reason I think it's suspicious of him to ask me about that role in particular is because I think he's lying about his reasons.  I think it's much more likely that you're right and he did seer me orange, I'm the millwright, and he's the Master Wolf Shaman.  That makes a lot more sense than he saw a post on Night 1 that seemed suspicious, waited until Day 1, and decided to ask me if I was a specific wolf role because of it.

Another reason I'm voting for Nocturne/Dude is because Dude's reaction to the whole thing makes no sense if he's a human.  Sure, Dude might have thought I was a wolf.  That doesn't justify ruining the reaction test, which is what he was doing by telling Nocturne I'd sent the PM to him as well.

I'm not sure what argument you've convinced yourself of, but it'd be helpful if you explained.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I think it's much more likely that you're right and he did seer me orange, I'm the millwright, and he's the Master Wolf Shaman.

...I never said that he actually seered you... Just that that would be the best role to choose if you're going for a reaction test, because it's the most believable.

Another reason I'm voting for Nocturne/Dude is because Dude's reaction to the whole thing makes no sense if he's a human.  Sure, Dude might have thought I was a wolf.  That doesn't justify ruining the reaction test, which is what he was doing by telling Nocturne I'd sent the PM to him as well.

Perhaps he didn't think you were doing a reaction test, but Nocturne was (e.g. you were a wolf and planned to flip the tables on Nocturne, who "admitted" he was a wolf, assuming he isn't a wolf). As a wolf, Dude would also have no reason to "ruin" your test either, since he could use everything you said against you (or, more likely, could back Nocturne up).

I'm not sure what argument you've convinced yourself of, but it'd be helpful if you explained.

I, similarly to Nocturne/Dude (assuming they aren't wolves), thought you might've been a wolf.

[fank009]

I then received the following PM from NocturneOfShadow.I believe that Nocturne and Dude are wolf partners.  There's no reason for Dude to ruin my test unless he fears the result.  And there's no reason for Nocturne to PM me out of the blue asking if I'm the traitor-assassin in particular.  He said in the chat that there was one post of mine during Night 1 that made him suspicious, but that shouldn't make him think that I'm any particular wolf role.  This leads me to believe that I am the millwright and was seered orange by NocturneOfShadow, the Master Wolf Shaman.

being the middle man which I (clearly?) am, Im going to disagree with this hypothesis. (and add more onto BDS's thoughts)

(I do want to know the timing of everything though :/ because that might help.)

-you argue that dude/nocturne are wolf buddehs because dude told nocturne about verms PM. If they were partners, wouldnt noct have consulted with dude about it... and wouldnt the two have done it... WITHOUT ME BEING IN THE CHAT???!!!???

Spoiler

22:30:31: <fank009> he wouldnt have found a megakiller - the alliance yesterday (this is here to prove my presence)
22:30:44: <nocturne> yeah
22:30:46: <nocturne> I guess
22:30:53: <nocturne> but he's been pretty open with his role
22:30:56: <nocturne> :O
22:31:09: <nocturne> do you think that means he's more likely to be the Traitor-Shaman?
22:31:45: <nocturne> what I don't know is if all the wolves know each other
22:31:53: <nocturne> I thought bird said something about that at one point
22:33:02: <dude> ok why did i get that pm
22:33:25: <dude> Nocturne
22:34:03: <nocturne> what pm
22:34:13: <nocturne> did I send you a pm?
22:34:32: <dude> no verm sent you and i guess me as well something??
22:34:41: <dude> i don't get it
22:35:03: <dude> i'm not even listed it the To: area
22:35:04: <nocturne> did he send you this
22:35:06: <dude> i mean
22:35:12: <nocturne> Hey there, Nocturne! I guess you've found us then (and you're the shaman). I am the Traitor-Shaman, and I actually seered you green last night. At least I can be sure you're not actually the human seer. Mashi was the assassin (lol he was actually serious about that) so I'm going to push for him to be revived today. I think I can make a fairly reasonable
22:35:12: <dude> *In
22:35:15: <dude> yeah
22:35:18: <nocturne> oh boy
22:35:20: <nocturne> I knew it
22:35:24: <nocturne> my source was right
22:35:26: <dude> what
22:35:33: <nocturne> verm was seered yellow
22:35:45: <dude> lol did you say you were a wolf or something?
22:35:53: <nocturne> no
22:35:58: <nocturne> I sent him a PM saying
22:35:59: <dude> oh
22:36:04: <nocturne> You're the traitor-shaman :O

[close]

-the fact of noct reaction testing is out of the q?
-Q... why do you make the statement of noct being "master wolf shaman"... you did "fake seer him green", he doesnt need to be the master wolf shaman in order for him to get a "scan on you". (he can relay info his partner gave him)

The reason I'm sure that he wasn't going for a reaction test is because I asked him when it was all over.  He said that one post (this one) made him think I might be the wolf assassin.

another good thing to peck at in the sense, you dont have to be said role to know what said role does.

Sorry to be a devil's advocate yet again, but you're essentially saying that it's not possible that Dude contacted Nocturne because he thought you were a wolf (especially since Nocturne was the one who initiated the PM chain, not you)? Nocturne's second PM (the one containing "If you did one of us will have to die.") implies that, if Nocturne were a wolf, he would not be associated with Dude. You're also forgetting the fact that YOU brought Dude into the situation.
I think there is a great possibility that Nocturne's PMs were, in fact, a reaction test, although less likely than another player who's probably more familiar with using reaction test strategies.

BDS practically filling in the gaps for me. (and vice versa). As i stated, your initial reasoning has holes when looking at it from the outside, and even when you have both sides of the story it still has holes... in short you are doing one of two things, you are trying to lead the humans with your flawed logic (you should sit back and have a rest), you are trying to take control of the game as a wolf with flawed reasoning... due to your interactions, a part of me seems to believe that you are human... but I cant take away the fact that mashi was seer'd red.



I'll try to find something from the chat today (later) but for now...

Spoiler

22:35:24: <nocturne> my source was right
22:35:26: <dude> what
22:35:33: <nocturne> verm was seered yellow

[close]

Noct, you have too many sources.


just a few thoughts...
-anyone who trusts verms logic with no questions deserves to be shot.
-BDS is making sense ? (needs to be shot?)
-verm find the rest of the map before you begin to hunt for treasure
-kman, you better have a good plan to lead the humans :/
-inactives, unless your a wolf, be more active.

also, this game lacks suspicion lists :/

[mikey]

Assuming I can count haha lynch votes are:
2: NocturneOfShadow
1: VermilionVermin
1: k-NiGhT
1: JDMEK5
1: BDS-kman you didn't change your vote, you might want to.
1: Dude

And for revive votes I'm seeing
GREG
with 1 for mashi.

Also I'll admit I've talked to dude a lot, but I've also talked a lot with fank.
I sent that PM to verm thinking he WAS the traitor shaman (I've never gotten a reaction test PM xD) and he'd slip up and give more evidence.  But we discussed it in the chat and I realized it probably wasn't true, however there are still a few convincing points.
1) He wants mashi back even though mashi is a confirmed red.  This is dangerous.
2) As soon as he realized that I wasn't on his side, he started (angrily in my opinion) defending himself saying he wasn't the Traitor Shaman.

I mean verm is very good at this game so it could be that he's right and I'm wrong, like in the alt account game where he knew what was up but nobody believed him, but yeah :/

And fank ninja'd me with that post and I will say one thing, (this isn't an edit) this could mean I'm NOT actually green.  I assumed that I was since verm said so.  If he doesn't have seering powers that means I may not be green.

[Olimar12345]

Well, now idk what to think about verm. Until I get some more time to chat, I'm going to safety on one of the inactives. To me, it doesn't make since to lynch an active player for trying something, when there are inactives about. K-NIGHT.

[Toby]

Verm's argument is odd and a Nocturne and Dude partnership does seem rather obvious to be true (but you never know!).

I do find this odd,

I am the Traitor-Shaman, and I actually seered you green last night.  At least I can be sure you're not actually the human seer.  Mashi was the assassin (lol he was actually serious about that) so I'm going to push for him to be revived today.

Verm reveals two seer results, which is odd. Kman said he revealed the Mashi seering with Dude and Verm was using Dude as his witness. Which means that if the orange seering on Dude was in fact false,  Dude and Verm partnership is likely and would explain the two seering results! Which would also explain why Verm was trying to get Mashi revived and since Dude was in contact with Kman, Dude had to seem like he didn't want Mashi revived and had to turn on Verm.

This is all very complex.

[fank009]

Toby, I find your train of thought odd (I blame verm)

[Toby]

i am odd

[vermilionvermin]

Might as well change my revive vote to greg now that Mashi is red

[K-NiGhT]

I haven't been inactive intentionally i've been at honor band all day.

my lynch target will be Nocturne, purely because I need some time to read through the rest of the thread and see why people are even voting for me in the first place and make a defense if need be