TWG LXIV: The Dangerous Flora and Fauna of Umbra

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Spoiler

TWG LXIV: The Dangerous Flora and Fauna of Umbra



Backstory: Many years ago, the war on the planet Umbra ended. The war hero Agent 819, who single-handedly took out the dark leader UMBRA, went back to the galactic capital planet, never to return to Umbra until the year of his death... but his story is another story, not to be told here...

Umbra is quickly becoming a point of interest for tourists. The super-company Micro Budget Ships Inc. is funding a new, experimental program to safely guide boatloads of these tourists through the planet on a predetermined route, highlighting the planet's natural wonders.

Unfortunately for the company, the illusions still remain on Umbra, even after the evil left the planet: the local flora and fauna have gotten hungry, and weak-minded tourists are on the menu...

The Flora and Fauna; Wolves
1: Miju-maron: Master Wolf (as the Miju-marons are giant, carnivorous plants, they can't do much unless people walk right into their lairs, though this doesn't affect the role any)
2: Ryu-jin: Wolf shaman.

Micro Budget Ships Tour; Humans
3: Tour Guide 1: Seer; is told results at end of night phase.
4: Tour Guide 2: Psychic; is told the number of wolves and if the red humans are left in the game (not how many red humans, however) at the end of every day phase (after lynching).
5: Tourist: Human.
6: Tourist: Human.
7: Tourist: Human.
8: Tourist: Herring. Is told he's a human.
9: Tourist: Regular miller. Will be told he's a human.
10: Tourist: Acts like a wolfsbane, except that the wolfing is redirected to another human player. Will be told he's a normal human.

Because wolves do not know each other, only the first wolfing vote is accepted. Wolves cannot be wolfed- if they are, it is considered that there is no wolfing.
There are no special victory conditions.

This game will have a story, revealed between phases (both day and night), in average-sized paragraphs (so hopefully there won't be any delays with the story).

Special Gimmick: Navigation; throughout the game (changing every day and night phase), the tour moves across various parts of the planet Umbra, on a course determined randomly (though areas cannot repeat until at least one other location has been visited).
Each area gives special, temporary effects to certain roles; the expedition always starts on the Overworld, as that is where is ship lands, but might not return there.

Night Phase Only:
Overworld: Two players can be seered.
Sacred Catacombs: Psychic can guard one person, excluding self.
In Specus Caverna (cave inside a cavern underneath the volcano): Ryu-Jin is seered as blue. Can find out the exact role of player seered, at the cost of being seered blue.

Day Phase Only:
Palus Magna (swamp): Miju-maron gets two lynching votes.
Ignis Parva (inside of a volcano): Ryu-jin gets two lynching votes.
Ruins of Ultima Fini (mechanical core of the planet): No effects.

[close]

1: Bird
2: FireArrow
3: Boo Guy
4: Mr. Tanooki Suit
5: NocturneOfShadow
6: davy
7: Toby [PHANTOM x1]
8: Greg
9: zoroark1264 [PHANTOM x1]
10: The_Subjective_Thought [PHANTOM x1]

Subs:
1: Dude

---

Davy was an hero to the group. Emphasis on "was." It is now Day 4. Day 4 ends in two days, on Thursday, February 27 at 3:00 PM PST (6:00 PM EST).

The Expedition is currently at Ignis Parva. Ryu-jin gets two lynching votes.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The story has been updated, now with 100% more crustacean action.

[Bird]

Well, props to whoever the wolf is, you're doing a stellar job. I sent a PM to GZG last night suggesting that Davy say the psychic claimed to him. Either GZG is the wolf, or the ruse was extremely transparent... or both.

I would advise nobody to place their votes yet. Even though there's probably only one wolf left, there can still be a wolf rush if a vote is placed on a/the human who has a phantom.

I'm gonna reread the game I guess.

[Bird]

It would also probably be a good idea for us to pick a time to all be in the chatroom to talk about the game. I'll be pretty free this evening, tomorrow evening/afternoon and thursday afternoon, central time.

[Bird]

Also, idea: What if... that night that nobody died, it was actually one of the wolves hitting the other one? And then Zoroark was the first wolf we killed, and the second hasn't died yet.

It might not have been an intentionally missed wolfing or a forgotten one!

[Greg]

I know I'm not a wolf, so that leaves a couple of potential scenarios in my eyes:

1. The wolf is the same wolf who was gutsy enough to kill Nocturne, or the other wolf guessing that the psychic was dead when Nocturne was killed. This doesn't really tell us much, but unfortunately it's looking like the most likely possibility.

2. The wolf knows that the psychic is dead, which would make the remaining wolf either the wolf shaman, or the master wolf who got together with the wolf shaman. I think the odds of the two wolves getting together are pretty slim, though, so that means it would be the wolf shaman (who is red, and therefore either Bird or a red player we haven't found yet).

3. There's two wolves left, and either they know each other from before (unlikely) or they found each other thanks to one hitting the other, and Zoroark wasn't one of them (Bird's scenario). In that case we lose since the wolves can wolf rush, so I'm going to go ahead and ignore this.

4. Bird's a wolf trying to make himself look more human with his plan.

I still don't think Bird's a wolf due to previous stuff, so I'm guessing that it's the first scenario.

[Bird]

Alright, here's my take on the game.

I think it's very unlikely that the wolves knew who the psychic was (dead or alive) by Nocturne's mysterious death. Since the first wolfing (by either wolf) is the one that is taken, it is likely that the wolfing PM was placed early in the phase... before I pointed out that the phase had a guardian. Let's face it, those different areas that we end up in each phase are very easy to overlook. The wolf or wolves, eager to place a wolfing that hurts an obviously human player rather than a wolf, slipped up.

This begs the question, who was the psychic? The most likely case is that it was Boo Guy. It is unlikely that the psychic was lynched (they could say "stop! I'm the psychic!"), and there was only one night death before night 3: Boo Guy. It's possible that the psychic was somebody like Fire Arrow (who didn't have time to claim to the thread before he was lynched) or Zoroark (who wouldn't have known to guard Nocturne), but it's less likely.

We can conclude that there was no way for the wolves to know the psychic was dead. They had one seering, and all that would tell them is if a player was blue. Furthermore, it would only tell half the wolves if one player was blue, rather than both of them. Even if the wolf shaman seered Boo Guy or Fire Arrow (the only two possibilities) on Night 1, they couldn't be sure either of those players was the psychic, and it wasn't clear that the shaman was the one making the wolfings anyway.

Consequently, the death of Nocturne was a rushed, lucky kill by the wolves.

-----------------

The next point of interest is the missed wolfing. As mentioned previously, there are three possible causes for this:

 - With two wolves left, one attacked the other.
 - With one wolf left, the wolf intentionally missed the wolfing.
 - With one wolf left, the wolf forgot to make the wolfing.

One wolf attacking another strikes me as unlikely. At baseline, it has a low probability (like 1/9 or however many players are left, in addition to the fact that the wolf would want to go for an obvious human player). Furthermore, it seems doubtful that there were two wolves left after that point anyway, Sage is a rather confident wolf pick for me.

One wolf forgetting is slightly more likely, but the only wolf who would make a mistake like that was Zoroark. And it would have been impossible for him to be the last wolf... since he's dead and the game isn't over.

The most likely scenario was that the missed wolfing was purposeful. This is something I could see Toby, Greg or me doing. But it was Toby who pointed out the strategic benefit of such a maneuver first. This demonstrated an understanding of the benefit of such a strategy, one that I doubt any other player had even considered.

-----------------

In conclusion, the wolf is somebody who hasn't been paying great attention, and understood the benefits of missing a wolfing.

Who has a phantom already? Toby.
Who pointed out that the missed wolfing could be intentional? Toby.
Who is the last wolf in this game? Toby.

What do you guys think? We don't really have much to go off of, but I definitely think Toby is the best fit.

[Greg]

I think there's one potential point in Toby's favour, actually: the fact that he accused you and me last phase. It wasn't really the accusation itself so much as the FORMAT. Like I said before, it's unlikely the wolves got together, and yet Toby was accusing us as a team. That's something to note, I think.

[Bird]

I wish we could actually go off of players' suspicions, but we can't, since we don't know who the dead wolf is. Toby could have been going after me because he knew he wouldn't get lynched and would try and lynch me this phase. Or maybe he thought his partner was Zoroark, and tried to turn the lynch away from him.

The wolves not knowing each other makes it hard for us to really judge what happened.

I'll probably place my vote for Toby later. I think there's a solid chance GZG is a wolf, but Toby is still more suspicious in my eyes.

[Toby]

Come to the chat bird

[Bird]

ok

[Greg]

log between me and Toby

Toby_	Hey there
Toby_	I'm rereading the thread, keeping an eye on boo guy and nocturnes posts to see if anything strikes me as "psychic". Bird said he retread it so I'd expect him to do the same as a human judging by the post he made,
Toby_	It might sound dumb but it's between TST and Bird for me
Toby_	I both think they're potential wolf candidates
Toby_	TST not being from llf links with my whole boo guy wolfing post
Toby_	And birds just been iffy all game
Toby_	But then it could have been the other wolf who got boo guy
Toby_	Greg?
Toby_	TST was seered green, right?
Toby_	Throughout the game bird has been trying to use my logic against me
Toby_	Which is odd
Toby_	Magnesium who are you
Toby_	Greg, did nocturne claim to you during day 1?
Greg	Magnesium's Master_gamer
Greg	toby_ ping ping ping
Greg	TST wasn't seered to my knowledge, and nocturne didn't claim anything to me
Toby_	Hola
Toby_	http://forum.ninsheetm.us/index.php?topic=6137.60 post #&
Toby_	69
Greg	What about it?
Toby_	What were you guys chatting about?
Greg	He just told me in chat about how the seer shouldn't claim to him
Toby_	Because it's possibly what could make nocturne seem like the pyschic
Greg	Er psychic
Greg	Wait I'm getting confused
Greg	OKAY LET'S TRY AGAIN
Greg	Nocturne told me in chat that he thought the psychic shouldn't claim to him.
Greg	Then I pointed out he'd said "seer" in the thread.
Greg	Which is obviously dumb: I think the seer had claimed by that point? Correct  me if I'm wrong
Toby_	Uhm
Toby_	Seer claimed to nocturne
Toby_	And I think it was before
Greg	Ah okay.
Greg	So yeah I just corrected him in chat
Toby_	Him
Toby_	*hm
Toby_	The way nocturne said it though
Toby_	Was strange
Toby_	Bird isn't coming to the chat
Greg	He was here before!
Toby_	Oh
Greg	By before I mean yesterday, though.
Toby_	I won't be able to stay for long
Toby_	Well
Toby_	That's a good while ago
Greg	Yeah
Greg	It was around when he made his big post accusing you
Toby_	Right
Toby_	As I said before bird been using my logic against me a lot
Toby_	Thinking I'm doing stuff just so I can then say in the thread it's what the wolf did
Toby_	Which isn't really fair
Greg	I dunno, he has some good points!
Toby_	A lot of jumpy ones too
Greg	what do you think about tst
Toby_	Would be likely to make all the wolfing a
Toby_	Wolfings*
Toby_	Not been particularly helpful the whole game
Greg	I dunno.
Toby_	Quieted down a lot recently
Greg	He hasn't been helpful, yeah
Greg	But he doesn't strike me as the type to miss a wolfing intentionally
Toby_	Either have I really
Toby_	But yeah
Toby_	i can imagine him forgetting though
Greg	Perhaps
Toby_	Ion gonna go now
Toby_	Seeya
|<--	Toby_ has left irc.nfnet.org (Quit: http://www.mibbit.com ajax IRC Client)[/t][/t][/t]

[close]

[/td][/tr][/table]

[Bird]

It sounds like the main two points he brings up are:

1. Not being helpful.
2. Using his logic against him.

For the first one, I don't really know what to say. Wasn't I the driving force between all three of the lynches this game? And we know that one of those lynches was a wolf at this point. I would say I've been less quiet and made more contributions than any other player. Asking the psychic to claim was my idea, telling Greg and Davy to say the psychic claimed to them was my idea. I dunno, it just seems a little off to say I've been quiet this game, especially after that monstrous post I just made. I've reread the thread three times at this point, and it'll probably be four before this game is over.

As for using your logic against you, I don't know why that makes me suspicious. Let me bring up an instance of using someone's logic against them that doesn't involve you, and you tell me if that makes me suspicious. Earlier in the chat, TST said something about "the best wolf strategy is to go for somebody quiet or inactive." That struck me as super odd, and seemed like the kind of reasoning that would lead a wolf to go for Boo Guy. This made me suspicious of him, although it could also qualify as me using my logic against him. Similarly, if you demonstrate awareness of how beneficial it is to skip wolfing one night, obviously that makes you more suspicious to me, since there was a missed wolfing!

---

And just as another general defense... I feel the one wolf we've certainly killed was Tanooki. He was red and so was I, so we can't be partners. And the next most likely wolf for us to have killed would definitely be Zoroark, and I was the first person to vote for him. My only viable partner is FireArrow, the least likely wolf of our lynch targets.

Furthermore, if I were a wolf, there's no way in hell I would have killed Nocturne on Night 2. I still don't understand how that happened.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Just remember that the phase ends tomorrow! For every person who doesn't vote, a fluffy four-eyed bunny dies! They're cute, I assure you! Don't let the fact that they have four eyes discourage you from feeling sympathy for them!

[The_Subjective_Thought]

Are you ready to watch me make a complete fool of myself?

No? This is the wrong place then.

Frankly I have no exact evidence against the person I'm going to vote for, however I firmly believe that the other two candidates are human. Greg due to davy not in fact dying an untimely death as well as nocturne's backing, and bird for being incredibly helpful for the human side as well as being fine with imagining scenarios in which he is in fact a wolf.

So by sheer process of elimination, I vote for Toby.

I'm going to sleep now, see you all tomorrow!