TWG LXXXII: File Island

[fank009]

FA, I made a mental note to myself about noct

I think the thing to note was he was green up until the last phase.

And I have a small theory anyway. I need to have a lpok at some logs, see if it proves true

[Brawler4Ever]

Thanks a lot; this clears things up. Unfortunately, there's just one problem:I've claimed Shellmon multiple times. I even freaked when I evolved into a green and asked the humans to take action 'cause I thought I was a wolf. I've made my case for humanity. Unless we've messed up our predictions, Brawler and I have some discussing to do.

You've claimed Shellmon only once. I made the initial case that you had to be Shellmon, but with the full knowledge that you were a wolf. In other words, I called your bluff. If you had read the op, you would know that you being a wolf that Night would be impossible. Your request to be sacrificed may have been seemingly noble, but you had every opportunity to know that such an action would be unnecessary. Your case relies entirely upon you being ignorant of the functions of the game; a claim that cannot be credited or discredited under these circumstances.
What can be credited, however, is that you use this seeming ignorance in your defense, as I knew that you would. That's why I felt it important to point out the flaw in your logic in the beginning. So no, I do not see your "freaking out" as evidence of your humanity.

For my part, I'm done for the night. I'll be back on in the morning and we can continue this riveting debate.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

More accurately, BDS got caught red handed as a wolf and now he's trying everything he can to avoid doing getting lynched, though it's pretty much inevitable.

Caught? Doing what? Being the guardian!? Nothing I did makes sense from a wolf perspective (claiming guardian is just the first of such actions)!

Things pointing towards BDS being human: Nothing

Claiming guardian to someone who now claims to be the guardian, but made an insanely suspect-in-hindsight versatile claim.

Things pointing towards Fank being human: Everything he does makes more sense from the perspective of the guardian. Actively helped human team.

I have pointed out several reasons why nothing Fank has done make sense from a guardian perspective.

Things pointing towards BDS being a wolf: The deductive logic to determine fank was a wolf was equally useable last night as it is today, however, BDS only used that logic to try and avoid getting lynched, it not even crossing his mind when he claimed to fank.

1: I thought Fank was a green, given, as you call it, his active help of the human team. I didn't put much thought into it until he claimed guardian, because of reasons referenced in 3, and the improbability of it at the time (among other things).
2: If I were a wolf, I would have noticed that before and not claimed guardian, but rather, a lazy green (see: Occam's Razor).
3: Even if I had thought Fank was a wolf before he claimed guardian, me claiming to Fank wouldn't have made any difference because I can guard myself (what I did, have done, and planned to continue to do).

Things pointing towards Fank being a wolf: Noc and fank were working together a lot and noc flipped red without fank even taking note of it.

This is saying the least of the evils... extremely biased and subjective, to say the least. The wording of a number of your posts ooze wolf, especially your "got caught red handed as a wolf" and "though it's pretty much inevitable" lines which try to smugly assert certainty in spite of the insane improbability, along with Brawler's recent "as I knew that you would."

[FireArrow]

Alright guys, bds caught us, gigs up. We thought our figure out who else is a wolf then circle jerk everyone to death plan would work.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Alright guys, bds caught us, gigs up. We thought our figure out who else is a wolf then circle jerk everyone to death plan would work.

... ... ... ...?

[fank009]

I have pointed out several reasons why nothing Fank has done make sense from a guardian perspective.

you've done what now? there's more holes than what you suppose is in mine.

There are two facts that I really want to bring up...
1.) Me and noct were talking to try and get the betamon starter
2.) Noct stopped talking to me last phase.

Wouldnt I keep talking with Noct and try to manipulate a plan to try and change that vig shot?

Claiming guardian to someone who now claims to be the guardian, but made an insanely suspect-in-hindsight versatile claim.

this is your most human quality? something that is little to no value at this stage? considering that this could be PLANNED. (given the two facts above)

you can try prove me wrong till you are blue in the face but the one irrefutable fact remains, is that one of us, is a wolf.


Arguments
BDS (Fank's a wolf)
-Fank's guardian claim is an opportunistic claim.
-Fank has been really sketchy and vague, keeping windows open for him

Counters to BDS
-I've hinted I was a blue since N2 as stated and if I were a wolf, I took up the guardian claim a lot earlier than what you are claiming. (N2's vig shot makes no sense, why would I shoot either Noct, or FA?)
-sometimes I don't mind claiming, but you don't need a hard claim to put in seeds. as much as noct and FA had a nice plan D1, I didnt want to kill the vig, considering that he was our weapon when jiji died. so the fluff was to try and draw the focus away.


Fanks arguments (Bds is a wolf)
-BDS's Logic has the same argument from my perspective, I have someone claimed what I am, what am I to do?
(As I said before Noct not talking to me, I basically had no one to talk to. and try to confide, there was olimar but.. eh)
-BDS inattention to the game. I think we would all know if I claimed green, given I was somewhat secretive and keeping to chat logs, it was still posted to the thread and was a genuine idea. Now him claiming green...
-There is a master plan in place.
I have a memory, one of noct/FA I hardclaimed privately with before N3, gotta find the logs for it (maybe it was on my phone (good luck accessing them)) anyway, as I said, I had a plan with noct...
This is what I sent Noct.

Logs

02:16:45: <fank009> had a disconnect :/
02:16:59: <Brawler4Ever> sorry
02:17:50: <fank009> last nights kill was very interesting...
02:18:13: <Brawler4Ever> ikr?
02:18:20: <fank009> yeah...
02:18:25: <Brawler4Ever> I have no idea what anybody's thinking anymore :/
02:18:27: <fank009> especially after our conversation
02:18:40: <fank009> just given up eh?
02:18:43: <fank009> its quite clear...
02:18:53: <fank009> you have FA wanting to turn all the red green
02:19:25: <fank009> and you have me/noct wanting to wrap everything up
02:19:32: <fank009> nothing too crazy about that.
02:19:49: <Brawler4Ever> i know about our last conversation
02:19:51: <Brawler4Ever> and even with that
02:20:00: <Brawler4Ever> I literally have no idea what you're talking about xD
02:20:09: <Brawler4Ever> you can believe taht I'm a wolf if you want
02:20:27: <fank009> ah, feigning ignorance.
02:20:40: <Brawler4Ever> lol
02:20:47: <fank009> the best thing that one can have.
02:20:49: <Brawler4Ever> have you read Dudeman's posts?
02:20:56: <fank009> which ones?
02:21:06: <Brawler4Ever> during this phase
02:21:10: <fank009> yeah
02:21:14: <Brawler4Ever> if you asked him if I was a wolf, he would probably say no
02:21:15: <fank009> tells even more.
02:21:32: <fank009> he would...
02:21:33: <Brawler4Ever> even though there's no logical reason for him to believe that
02:21:38: <Brawler4Ever> it's him or me
02:21:44: <fank009> since when do people follow logic.
02:21:47: <Brawler4Ever> so either he's incredibly dense
02:21:52: <Brawler4Ever> or lying
02:22:55: <fank009> when you take other things into consideration, it is quite clear.
02:23:35: <fank009> there is one thing we need to know now
02:23:44: <fank009> knowing you you'd prolly tell eventually
02:24:12: <fank009> so you're leomon eh? who
02:24:41: <Brawler4Ever> am I going to block?
02:24:44: <Brawler4Ever> or negate?
02:24:44: <Brawler4Ever> whatever
02:24:44: <fank009> yeah
02:24:47: <Brawler4Ever> dudeman
02:25:19: <Brawler4Ever> my power sucks
02:25:29: <fank009> nah
02:25:32: <Brawler4Ever> can't even stop a wolfing
02:25:58: <Brawler4Ever> and I can only use it every other Night
02:25:59: <fank009> ...
02:26:03: <fank009> seems like a waste
02:26:10: <fank009> to use it on dudeman
02:26:10: <Brawler4Ever> I think it can't stop a wolfing?
02:26:32: <Brawler4Ever> I asked davy. I'm assuming my power is the same
02:26:32: <Brawler4Ever> I know Garurumon's doesn't
02:26:52: <Brawler4Ever> on whom else should I use it?
02:27:13: <Brawler4Ever> I'm open to suggestions
02:29:11: <Brawler4Ever> Do you believe that dudeman is telling the truth in his posts?
02:30:27: <fank009> ...
02:31:05: <fank009> whats the point of blocking you're CC?
02:31:17: <Brawler4Ever> he's a wolf
02:31:24: <Brawler4Ever> and he might have a power
02:31:27: <fank009> you cant block a wolfing though...
02:31:33: <fank009> there's only one power he can have
02:31:35: <Brawler4Ever> the wolf psychic
02:31:40: <fank009> ^
02:31:44: <Brawler4Ever> he sees how many blues are in the game
02:31:52: <fank009> and you are just openly going to put faith that he's the psychic?
02:31:59: <Brawler4Ever> the other one counts as 2 votes
02:32:07: <fank009> for now...
02:32:18: <Brawler4Ever> the alternative is me accidentally hitting the vigi
02:32:35: <fank009> and thats a bad thing?
02:32:58: <Brawler4Ever> if he's aiming for the 3 that were reborn, I would say yes
02:33:01: <fank009> maybe you should stop the vigi,
02:33:12: <fank009> thats only if we dont lynch dude now
02:33:16: <fank009> you stop the vigi,
02:33:59: <fank009> and you have wolves..
02:34:22: <Brawler4Ever> what?
02:34:25: <fank009> with little to no guidance
02:34:30: <fank009> wolves have what...
02:34:36: <fank009> 3 votes
02:35:20: <fank009> + however many turn wolves...
02:35:46: <Brawler4Ever> potentially 6, if RNGesus is in their favor
02:35:58: <Brawler4Ever> and we don't get rid of any
02:36:08: <fank009> ...
02:36:17: <Brawler4Ever> I would rather the vigi act on those that have turned already
02:36:18: <fank009> the odds are in our favour somewhat
02:36:21: <Brawler4Ever> (if Jiji is alive)
02:36:25: <Brawler4Ever> heck
02:36:30: <Brawler4Ever> even if Jiji's dead
02:36:35: <Brawler4Ever> why not vigi them?
02:36:43: <Brawler4Ever> or me/dudeman
02:37:54: <fank009> I believe the odds are in our favour
02:38:12: <fank009> there would be 9 votes floating around
02:38:16: <fank009> wolves need 2 to flip
02:38:26: <fank009> to hold majority
02:38:40: <fank009> and they only have if only one flipped
02:38:49: <fank009> humans have 5 bodies to run them over
02:38:51: <Brawler4Ever> wait
02:38:53: <Brawler4Ever> 3 votes?
02:39:00: <fank009> ...
02:39:01: <fank009> yeah
02:39:14: <fank009> your forgetting about that wolf double voter
02:39:14: <Brawler4Ever> 2 starters + ...?
02:39:19: <fank009> so...
02:39:24: <fank009> 2 starters is 3 votes
02:39:36: <fank009> and for every flip from noct/latios/FA
02:39:43: <fank009> wolves get one more
02:39:43: <Brawler4Ever> oh
02:39:50: <Brawler4Ever> I thought that meant a wolfing vote xP
02:39:59: <fank009> so thats why
02:40:01: <Brawler4Ever> so he would always override his partner
02:40:04: <fank009> you should block the vigi
02:40:32: <Brawler4Ever> still learning the game
02:40:37: <Brawler4Ever> ok

[close]

So, we need to preferbly vig the betamon starter. 1 less vote for wolves gives us leeway. (given that 2 have flipped...)
the conversation is interesting...
I think the biggest line of all is this one...

something to look at

02:31:05: <fank009> whats the point of blocking you're CC?
02:31:17: <Brawler4Ever> he's a wolf
02:31:24: <Brawler4Ever> and he might have a power

[close]

Brawler has been really telling all game (I don't need to list examples do I?) The big thing is, if he knows what he is, and knows what his partner has, what reason does he have to block in the blues? I'm positive enough to think, that that was his line of reasoning.

(While searching through my PM's I found this...)

Pm to FA/Noct

So I've been chatting with noct, and I think we can kill the wolf starters and what not and the rest within a few ticks, even with jiji dead.

So, atm we have of those unconfirmed
One of Brawler/dudeman
One of BDS/Fank/Olimar.

basically solving the game depends on a certain amount of information.
Vig shot in greens.
I am willing to bet good money on saying BDS shot Noct, due to a number of reasons, including stubborness. I don't see olimar shooting either of you two, and me... why would I shoot any of you as a vig?
In terms of brawler dudeman, brawler has just been falling over pretty simple qs (eh noct) he is showing some awareness in some areas, but you ask him a certain q and he relaxes his guard, thinking its normal when in reality its a wolf tell.

Me/Olimar... well we all know who I'm going to argue for in that argument.
so we are left with 1+1/2
we rebirth someone into a human, and we have 2 chances to lose humans for wolves, odds of 1 I calculated at ~85%

The wolf game lies in betamon, betamon dies and we can swallow up the rest of the wolves.

The game is as good as solved and from my point of view, I see no point in prolonging the game when a human victory is on the cards, (- potential wolves turning tonight :/)

If you wanna make all the red green though... it will be a timely procedure...

[close]

So... I softclaim guardian, Noct finds out BDS isnt Vig, and then gives him info. Somewhat seems like a stretch, but is consistent with Noct stopping the talks with me. considering BDS naturally dumbtells at times it might be convincing, and I swear Nocts been going to fanks school of being devious.

BDS's Argument for(BDS is the guardian)
"I claimed to fank I was a guardian, why would I do that as a wolf?"

Fanks argument for(Fank is the guardian)
-What wolf stratergy?
-Wolfings
lets take this back a moment and say I'm a wolf, N2 Kills, my partner is in the greens, do I feel lucky, or should I just wolf bubbles who at that time is 75% green to put odds back in our favour?
-Stall game
I've been saying all game d1-d2. We Need to kill Jiji. yeah long run we can win war of attrition  (and we know how this argument kept on). but there is strong motivation to stall the game. get some neat as powers (like palmon/Doublevoting/blue count). why not let the same people die so that we don't dig and let the starters digivolve (and get powers, not to mention a possible vig towards end game)
-Meta.
ah meta, oh how we like meta. those that know my play, yeah that aint going to help much. basically I'm calculating, planning and always looking to be one step ahead. yep sounds like me this game, but as I said before, not really telling as I am a planner no matter what side I'm on.
-Looking for partners
self explanatory, hopefully don't need to explain and have you seen it?

-Fank is the guardian.
I like leaving subtle hints so that those that find them so people can trust me and what not.
chat logs and what not (and other things i've posted in this argument) If people want more i will hunt for it inbetween classes




Conclusion
every argument needs a good conclusion, so it basically boils down to 2 styles of play...
someone whos been consistently here vs someone whos just turned up.

Hopefully the right choice can be made.


Notes
there's something niggling at me atm, I can't put my finger on it.

while you were typing...

... ... ... ...?

/pokes with stick

(ahh, the feeling of writing books again)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

-I've hinted I was a blue since N2 as stated and if I were a wolf, I took up the guardian claim a lot earlier than what you are claiming. (N2's vig shot makes no sense, why would I shoot either Noct, or FA?)

My point was that you intentionally left you claim vague so that you could manipulate it as necessary. As I mentioned, had it suited your needs, you could just as easily have claimed normal human pretending to be luring in wolves!

-sometimes I don't mind claiming, but you don't need a hard claim to put in seeds. as much as noct and FA had a nice plan D1, I didnt want to kill the vig, considering that he was our weapon when jiji died. so the fluff was to try and draw the focus away.

That still doesn't address how unnecessary it was, especially given the above (i.e. it really reflects poorly on you, and, at the least, makes you look opportunistic). Given the wolfings, though, it seems like your attempt "to try and draw the focus away" from the vigi not only completely failed, but was apparently unnecessary in the first place.

-BDS inattention to the game. I think we would all know if I claimed green, given I was somewhat secretive and keeping to chat logs, it was still posted to the thread and was a genuine idea. Now him claiming green...

As I said, I assumed you were green by process of elimination (e.g. I'm the guardian, Fank's not the vigi, Fank seems to be giving effort, so Fank must be green).

So... I softclaim guardian, Noct finds out BDS isnt Vig, and then gives him info. Somewhat seems like a stretch, but is consistent with Noct stopping the talks with me. considering BDS naturally dumbtells at times it might be convincing, and I swear Nocts been going to fanks school of being devious.

None of this even makes any sense, on multiple different levels. Saying that it's "a stretch" isn't exactly true- it flat-out is insanely improbable.

"I claimed to fank I was a guardian, why would I do that as a wolf?"

I think... you forgot everything else that's supposed to be there. Nice selective display of information to everybody who reads your giant-font post.

-What wolf stratergy?
-Wolfings
lets take this back a moment and say I'm a wolf, N2 Kills, my partner is in the greens, do I feel lucky, or should I just wolf bubbles who at that time is 75% green to put odds back in our favour?

Padding much? I'm not quite sure what you're trying to implying here, but whatever it is, you're not. You're leaving it very, very open to reader interpretation (not to mention the fact that there's always the possibility that you didn't make all the wolfings thus far, given that wolves don't know each other; it's not a stretch to say you made the Olimar wolfing, though).

-Stall game
I've been saying all game d1-d2. We Need to kill Jiji. yeah long run we can win war of attrition  (and we know how this argument kept on). but there is strong motivation to stall the game. get some neat as powers (like palmon/Doublevoting/blue count). why not let the same people die so that we don't dig and let the starters digivolve (and get powers, not to mention a possible vig towards end game)

And that suddenly adds a lot more justification to you false-claiming guardian. If you can find out who the guardian is, go through with a believable claim (by process of elimination through green claiming, you can judge the possibility of success rather early on, narrowing it down even further by making an attempt to find the vigi, which gets you human points), you can get the guardian lynched, who, when they digivolve into Phoenixmon, essentially ensures that two humans will remain alive throughout the entire game.

-Meta.
ah meta, oh how we like meta. those that know my play, yeah that aint going to help much. basically I'm calculating, planning and always looking to be one step ahead. yep sounds like me this game, but as I said before, not really telling as I am a planner no matter what side I'm on.
-Looking for partners
self explanatory, hopefully don't need to explain and have you seen it?

PADDING.

-Fank is the guardian.
I like leaving subtle hints so that those that find them so people can trust me and what not.
chat logs and what not (and other things i've posted in this argument) If people want more i will hunt for it inbetween classes

There's not much in terms of reasoning here- just a blank statement. Not to mention my above suggestion about you intentionally leaving your claim malleable in case of the necessity of a change of plans.

every argument needs a good conclusion, so it basically boils down to 2 styles of play...
someone whos been consistently here vs someone whos just turned up.

Hopefully the right choice can be made.

Appeal to emotions. Now, what I say as rebuttal:

SENSIBLE HARDCLAIM VS. MALLEABLE, OPEN-ENDED SOFTCLAIM
(P.S. Think! Occam's Razor! That's so handy to bring up all the time, isn't it?)

It's so funny how one-sided you can make issues appear to be!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also I would argue that my playstyle thus far supports guardian, as being able to guard yourself the whole time while somebody else catches wolves (or would have were they not a wolf themselves! HMMMM!?!?) doesn't really promote an active attitude (given what I said about Phoenixmon, you can contribute to the cause without technically doing anything)... in addition to the fact that I've also been doing other things unrelated to the game... such as, being preoccupied with two other high-activity games (not through its entirety so far, but mostly around the beginning-ish parts).

Needless to say, were I a wolf, I would have been much more active (nor would I engage in claims only incompetent wolves would try; nay- I only do inane special claims as third party! ).

Also, if I'm not mistaken, doesn't FireArrow have a 50% chance to be a wolf, given how he revived? Even ignoring all the nonsense you're shouting, there's a 50% chance you're wrong right off the bat (which, by association, means you can't be the guardian)!

[Latios212]

Also, where are you, Bubbles and Latios. ._.

Headed to work. I'll be back this afternoon/night!

[fank009]

(not to mention the fact that there's always the possibility that you didn't make all the wolfings thus far, given that wolves don't know each other; it's not a stretch to say you made the Olimar wolfing, though).

... there's this thing, I think you mentioned it before, its called timezone advantage.

Also I would argue that my playstyle thus far supports guardian, as being able to guard yourself the whole time while somebody else catches wolves (or would have were they not a wolf themselves! HMMMM!?!?) doesn't really promote an active attitude (given what I said about Phoenixmon, you can contribute to the cause without technically doing anything)... in addition to the fact that I've also been doing other things unrelated to the game... such as, being preoccupied with two other high-activity games (not through its entirety so far, but mostly around the beginning-ish parts).

Needless to say, were I a wolf, I would have been much more active (nor would I engage in claims only incompetent wolves would try; nay- I only do inane special claims as third party! ).

Also, if I'm not mistaken, doesn't FireArrow have a 50% chance to be a wolf, given how he revived? Even ignoring all the nonsense you're shouting, there's a 50% chance you're wrong right off the bat (which, by association, means you can't be the guardian)!

-You're playstyle of self guarding has supported the fact you are the guardian? Please, if you want to be supporting how about try predicting where a shots going to go at night, or save someone who needed it, like bubbles n2.

-you, active? please, I've seen games where you are inactive as a wolf. (should go find it)

-what are you referencing in this paragraph?

Also... if you really want to bring occams razor into it, talk about all the assumptions you made going at my end. (granted there are some big assumptions, but there is big assumptions on both sides, q is, which ones the biggest.)

[Brawler4Ever]

Also, if I'm not mistaken, doesn't FireArrow have a 50% chance to be a wolf, given how he revived?!

Then FireArrow has a 50% chance that he's about to lynch one of his partners. If I were a wolf, I could say the same. And yet we're both voting against you. Unless you believe that we've formed a triple alliance? Even if fank and I were working together, how would we get FA into our alliance? He was the first person to vote against you. Fank knew that you were a wolf when Olimar died. I believe that you're a wolf because of probability. The chances that fank is the guardian are much higher than yours. I can't say whether FA is a wolf or not. If he is a wolf, then he's only been a wolf for one phase. You're just assuming that he is because he's voting against you. Your mindset of "everybody that is not with me is against me" is, imo, your attempt at trying to grasp at straws to survive. Which, imo, is very wolfish.

Even ignoring all the nonsense you're shouting, there's a 50% chance you're wrong right off the bat (which, by association, means you can't be the guardian

What does this mean? Why can't fank be the guardian? My entire case against you is that fank is the guardian, and therefore you can't be. Nothing that you have said has lead me to believe that he's not. Most of what I've heard so far is just rambling and grasping at straws. But I would appreciate it if you would explain your reasoning here.

[Dudeman]

Fank. BDS has won me over.

[Dudeman]

Also I'll be in the chat this evening to talk 'n stuff.

[FireArrow]

As I said, I assumed you were green by process of elimination (e.g. I'm the guardian, Fank's not the vigi, Fank seems to be giving effort, so Fank must be green).

Why can't I get this through to you, at the time you claimed there were 4 possible greens, 3 confirmed greens, and 2 unconfirmed green claims. 5 is greater than 4, and fank wasn't even in the 5. To assume Fank was a green would require you to be completely ignorant to something that was discussed in the thread multiple times, meaning you haven't been reading it. So my options are:

Guardian who's been ignoring the thread whilst sitting back and guarding himself every night
or
Guardian who's been extremely helpful for the human team and one of the most active players

If you are the guardian, you've done absolutely nothing for us this game bar count for human numbers, the only time you've been active is to save yourself. Yeah no, to me that's a dictionary description of a wolf.

[fank009]

Fank. BDS has won me over.

if someone has to win you over, more than likely its a wolf