TWG XCII: Seeriously!

[FireArrow]

This is important so I'm gonna say it before defending myself:

1. I am garunteed to not be a fool. I got a fool to claim so we can seer him then lynch him as a thanks - this is literally the worst possible thing I could do as a fool because it puts me in a situation where I'm the last fool and everyone is going to be incredibly weary of killing one.

2. Given that, I'm either a useless seer or a wolf. There's very little risk of mislynching me.

3. Dude could easily be a fool just screweing with us.

4. Seering dude can confirm my humanity.

Add up all of the above, and whatever role you think I am seering dude is by far the best option. If he's human, I'm a wolf. If he's not, than we know whether or not he's a fool or wolf.
What happens when you seer me instead? You either hit a wolf or you find out I'm human and are left to wonder whether dude is the last fool or not.

but on Day 2 FA takes advantage of the situation that no one has claimed Gullible Seer and false-claims TZP blue.

Now for my defense. I was the second one to claim, there's absolutely no way I could of known there would be this fiasco when I claimed gullible seer (or even know if that role would go without a counterclaim.)

[FireArrow]

As for your analysis of roles, you're basing it off of these three assumptions.

1. Dude is human.
2. Olimar is a fool.
3. TZP is human.

Please explain why you think these are more likely to be true than their alternative.

[Dudeman]

1. Dude is human.

I would particularly like to hear this one. I can maybe buy Olimar as a fool and TZP as human (as I believe him to be), but Dude's been acting weird from the start.

[Dude]

Is bds really a fool tho?

[daj]

Ah, right. Let's wait for more confirmation.

BDS. sorry man, it had to be you :p

I guess I'll hold on to my views for a bit, but I do see the value in confirming whether BDS really is a fool. Won't kill us, gives us some ground to work on.

All that being said i really think we should seer FA/Dudeman tonight ahaha

[FireArrow]

How about this. Olimar seers dudeman, Dudeman seers dude, daj you can seer me. Everyone in the thread guards whoever they think is least likely to be a wolf of the three so a random one of you guys is guarded.

TZP you need to seer someone whose already been seered so we can try and figure out your role. Tbh pushing for your lynch would not be a bad idea if you miss another seering.

[Dude]

I'm going to vote FA tho

[Dudeman]

How about this. Olimar seers dudeman, Dudeman seers dude, daj you can seer me. Everyone in the thread guards whoever they think is least likely to be a wolf of the three so a random one of you guys is guarded.

Are we gonna get anyone to seer daj? I'm on board with this idea otherwise.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Hey, I could use a study break.  Long post.
As FA says, Daj has 3 assumptions.

1. Dude is human.
2. Olimar is a fool.
3. TZP is human.

If you hold those assumptions, you get Daj's breakdown.

1. Dudeman - BDS, TZP: Wolf Shaman
2. Olimar12345 - BDS, Daj: fool?
3. Maelstrom - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
4. Dude - Noc, FA: Real Seer
5. NocturneOfShadow - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
6. TheZeldaPianist275 - :c, >:c: by elimination, Gullible Seer
7. Shadowkirby - :c, TBA: Foolish Seer
8. BlackDragonSlayer - le fool: yeah he's a fool alright
9. dajwxp - BDS, Dudeman: Drunken Seer
10. FireArrow - BDS, TZP: Drunken wolf Shaman

What if

1. Dude is human.
2. Olimar is a HUMAN.
3. TZP is human.

Operating under the assumption that BDS is a fool, that casues problems, because Olimar seer'd BDS and Daj, making Olimar the drunken seer.  This however causes problems because Daj is ALSO claiming to be the drunken seer if BDS is a fool, which would make Daj not human in this case.  This would make Dudeman the true seer, which means Dude has to be lying.
1. Dudeman - BDS, TZP: True Seer
2. Olimar12345 - BDS, Daj: Drunken Seer
3. Maelstrom - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
4. Dude - Noc, FA: ??
5. NocturneOfShadow - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
6. TheZeldaPianist275 - :c, >:c: Some kinda seer
7. Shadowkirby - :c, TBA: ??
8. BlackDragonSlayer - le fool: yeah he's a fool alright
9. dajwxp - BDS, Dudeman: Drunken Wolf Shaman
10. FireArrow - BDS, TZP: ??

In this instance, Dude is either a fool or a wolf, and either FA or Shadowkirby is Daj's wolf partner if he's not.  Because Shadowkirby hasn't seer'd or been seer'd, we just don't know.

What about if

1. Dude is a human.
2. Olimar is A WOLF.
3. TZP is human.

Olimar rode the bandwagon on BDS and lied about his Daj seering.  That gives us Daj as the legit Drunken seer and Dudeman as a wolf, probably the sober one.  Basically the same thing Daj had, but with Olimar and FA switched.
1. Dudeman - BDS, TZP: Wolf Shaman
2. Olimar12345 - BDS, Daj: Drunken Wolf Shaman
3. Maelstrom - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
4. Dude - Noc, FA: Real Seer
5. NocturneOfShadow - BDS, rip: Paranoid/Stoned Seer
6. TheZeldaPianist275 - :c, >:c: by elimination, Gullible Seer
7. Shadowkirby - :c, TBA: Foolish Seer
8. BlackDragonSlayer - le fool: yeah he's a fool alright
9. dajwxp - BDS, Dudeman: Drunken Seer
10. FireArrow - BDS, TZP: Fool

I didn't analyze anything with me not being human because I feel like it should be fairly obvious that I am at this point.

How about if

1. Dude is NOT human.

In this case, it's a lot more difficult to make a judgment call, simply because Dude has been seer'd by no one and we're just trying to gauge his behavior.  He would be a very good candidate for seering tonight.

@FA, if you want to lynch me just because I haven't provided helpful seering results, you should go for Shadowkirby instead.  At least I've been active.

Davy, any chance we might be able to get a replacement for shadowkirby?

[FireArrow]

Are we gonna get anyone to seer daj? I'm on board with this idea otherwise.

Dude can seer daj since I guess he's the fourth reliable seer claim. Olimar already did seer him and your seering result of him is useless (if you're human he's not, if your not human you're gonna pretend he's not.)

[Dudeman]

Dude can seer daj since I guess he's the fourth reliable seer claim. Olimar already did seer him and your seering result of him is useless (if you're human he's not, if your not human you're gonna pretend he's not.)

True. All right, I'm in support of the plan.

[FireArrow]

@FA, if you want to lynch me just because I haven't provided helpful seering results, you should go for Shadowkirby instead.  At least I've been active.

Davy, any chance we might be able to get a replacement for shadowkirby?

Most of your post doesn't mean much to me because I personally know that dude isn't human. And yws I'm equally suspicious of shadow kirby. Reason being is the best wolf plan atm would be exactly what you're doing (be active enough to look human, don't post seer results to avoid counterclaims and sit safely knowing that the fool will cause enough chaos to keep people off your back.)

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Vote count:
Dudeman--BDS
Olimar12345--BDS
Dude--FA
TheZeldaPianist275--Dudeman
Shadowkirby--tbd
BlackDragonSlayer--tbd
dajwxp--BDS
FireArrow--BDS

The more I think about it, the more logical a Dudeman lynch seems today.  Basically, the only way he's a human is if Dude is lying, Daj is lying, and either FA or Shadowkirby is a human or a wolf (see my earlier post for why).  I'm not sure I like those odds.  I understand the allure of wanting to ice BDS so we get a good read on our roles, but that would have been better day 1.  Right now, I think it's a good idea to pursue this lead here.

Don't kill BDS.

[Olimar12345]

As much as killing BDS is not a really a good idea, you do realize that if you're wrong we essentially lose, right?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Oh snap, fools don't count toward the wolves' win condition. You're right, if we mislynch, and the wolves kill a human, we lose.