TWG 100th Anniversary: Dinner and a Show

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Olimar, I hear you, but I'm far more inclined to agree with davy about the lack of death last night.  Night 1 is vastly more interesting for wolves than for humans, and given the level of interest that was building up to this game, I just don't see 4 people with engaging roles all failing to get on a wolfing.  The odds of that feel astronomically small, compared to just 1/13 (1/12?  do the wolves know who the traitor is?).

However, you may be right that it's a relatively freshman wolf team--lots of names I don't recognize here.  I think that adds to the chance that they may have gone for a high profile player with more experience under their belt, so I think Davy's list should be who we look at right now.  This is, of course assuming that we're more interested in Monika than a wolf right now, which I think is a good idea for the reasons Dudeman said earlier.

@SuperMarina--what is there that's not to talk about?  There's been like three different rough plans suggested, and people are arguing about all of them.

BDS for now.

[Monika]

roleflips

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Therefore, I think BDS, Olimar, FireArrow, myself, and to a lesser extend (since they haven't really been active) TZP and Bubbles are more likely to be Monica.

This part kind of makes me want to change my vote to FireArrow, but then again, Olimar's kind of counteracts that (but then again, if Olimar were Monika, wouldn't he make exactly the kind of post like that to try and deter suspicion off himself!!? ).

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Why FireArrow in particular?

[BrainyLucario]

I'm seriously at a loss for who to vote for.

I only have like 1 suspicion so far. and that's against  THC and i dont feel comfortable voting for him yet

I'd be more inclined to vote an inactive player because it wouldn't put a hindrance on conversation

[Trasdegi]

Hmmm, FireArrow would be on my suspicion list too, because that raeko analysis was unnecessarily nitpicky for a joke post IMO.
Speaking of raeko, I would want to hear explanations on that too early post too.

[davy]

They wouldn't all have to be inactive for the whole 24 hours; staggering their time online would have been worse for active discussion on a target. However:

You are working with the assumption that if the wolves can't decide on a target, they skip their wolfing. That is a terrible wolf strategy. Anyone who plays this game should know that hitting someone that you haven't all agreed on is way better (for the wolves) than hitting no one.

In fact, you have really been pushing the possibility that wolves were inactive, as if you, for whatever reason want us to consider hitting monika as the less likely option. Lynching inactives is usually a strategy that helps the wolves, so my vote is on you, Olimar

[Monika]

Votecount:
Raeko- (BlackDragonSlayer, ) 1
ThiccWifeSiccLife- (Bubbles, ) 1
BlackDragonSlayer- (TheZeldaPianist, ) 1
Olimar12345- (davy, ) 1

[davy]

However, you may be right that it's a relatively freshman wolf team--lots of names I don't recognize here.  I think that adds to the chance that they may have gone for a high profile player with more experience under their belt, so I think Davy's list should be who we look at right now.  This is, of course assuming that we're more interested in Monika than a wolf right now, which I think is a good idea for the reasons Dudeman said earlier.

BDS for now.

This part kind of makes me want to change my vote to FireArrow, but then again, Olimar's kind of counteracts that (but then again, if Olimar were Monika, wouldn't he make exactly the kind of post like that to try and deter suspicion off himself!!? ).

Why specificly BDS/FireArrow? Also I feel the need to point out that while I do think the players from my list have a higher chance of being Monika, that does not mean that every other player gets a free pass.

[davy]

We should probably hope for the cause being inactivity. If the wolves hit Monika, that would be bad for us cause they would team up. Monika can win with the wolves, if they team up, it's game over.

I'm getting wolf vibes from this post. If this post is not a natural overreaction from THC, I can only assume he's trying to be really worried for the human cause in order to seem human.

[Monika]

Rules updated to reflect Monika's "mark popping" ability must be activated.  In addition, the "mark popping" ability is a separate action than marking and can be used simultaneously.  However, the popping resolves first, meaning the target marked that night will still be alive.

[davy]

Sure, we'd have a confirmed human then, and a small alliance could be quickly set up, but given the person revived is revived at the beginning of a night phase, they only have 24 hours to not only set up an alliance but try to see through a possible false-claim by the wolves.

Counterclaiming Khajiit or Seer is very dangerous. If you counterclaim Khajiit, you have to proof that you can send your items to specific players, which is quite hard to do. Counterclaiming seer means that if a seer target's roleflip does not matched the color you've seerd them in, your cover will be blown. If a wolf and the traitor both fake claim a role, there is a decent chance that they counterclaim eachother, meaning that there still will be two special roles that can communicate with each other. If multiple wolves fake claim, than we can just reveal the fake claims and lynch from their, seeing as the Brutal Human will take care of a 3rd wolf meaning that we'd only have to lynch one more wolf in order to win the game. That being sad, the high chance of fake claims does put a dent in the early alliance plan.

In addition, who's to say a more useful revive wouldn't be needed later on (such as the Brutal, my next point)? Unless the person wolved N1 is the Brutal, in which case they need to be revived ASAP, because that's the big role the wolves won't be as inclined to mess with (unless they're willing to sacrifice another of their numbers?), I believe the revive needs to lay low.

The problem is that if we wait with the reviver, the reviver might be the first special to die. In the end, it is up to the reviver whether they want to revive the person we lynch today (providing that person is human), or wait and hope to not be the first special to die.

People are putting a heavy emphasis on Khajit, but I don't know that I understand why? How would a human alliance be beneficial to him, any more than it would be for any other human? I mean sure he'd know which correct players to give the items for (since I'm assuming he wins with the humans?) but is he even that important of a player, since we don't have any idea what the items are even used for? I asked noc about the items uses and all I got was a winky face lol. Don't get me wrong I'm sure he's far from just a throwaway character, but he doesn't seem like the all-powerful role that I'm getting the vibe people are saying he is

We were putting some emphasis on Khajiit because other players were ignoring him for a moment (saying that alliances are only useful for the seer). As for why a human alliance would be more benificial to him then to any other player, well, you just gave the answer yourself.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Why FireArrow in particular?

I've already had my eye on FireArrow.

[Dudeman]

I'm getting wolfy vibes from davy, honestly, especially for voting Olimar. His posting up to this point has been virtually entirely against every idea everyone else has come up with. I'm not saying that we're all right for having a similar idea, but it rubs me the wrong way that davy's acting so "it couldn't possibly be what you're thinking, that's wrong". That said, his points do make sense and it's too early in the game to say what a lack of N1 wolfing means (I still think wolfing Monika is not very polite! You should never try to murder your clubmates. If you're ever feeling upset like that, put your feelings down on paper! I find that poems can translate feelings to words much better than anything else. Give it a try, okay? Don't hurt anyone. And remember, I'll always be here if you need someone to talk to~! E̟̣̹̫͈̋̍̈́͂ͧ̌̓͠Ŗ͈̫̥̯͍̭̦̭̳͉̣̼̦̟̩ͨ͒̾͊ͦ̋̐̒̅ͤ̚͘̕͟Ṟ̴͚̖͎̣̗̹̼̰̩̠̻̣̟̮̮͗ͫ̋̂ͪ̆͒̽̄̋͒̕͘͟͢ͅO̷̢̡͚͉̩̾ͮ̿ͫ͆ͪ̃̐̾ͭ͐̕̕R̶̶̼̱͇̺͍̞̬̪̟̻̙̱̤̗͓̪͉̰ͨͧͪ̿̆̓̆̅̒̂̈̓̃̌̿̋̇͘͢͜:̴̈̈́̀̀͢͞͏̖͓͖̗͎͚̤͓̹̙̱ͅ ̋̾T̸̞̹̤͉̫̲͕ͣͬ̾͌̄ͦ́̓̀ͫͤ̇̉̔͞ͅȨ͈̥̪̥̖̹̤̩͍͋̌͆͂ͨ̑̆͒ͦ̿ͧ́̚X̲͕̗͕͎̖̟̪̬̼̥̠̻̫̩̍̏ͮ̉̐ͣ̑̈́̊͢ͅŢ̷̧̻͖͇̯̼́̊͊̿͒̅͋ͦͦͪ̓̚͠ͅ ͤ͐N̸̛͙͙̼͎̲̪̝̠͔̘̹̯̤̋̅ͭ̌̂͋̕Ỡ̧ͪͩ̂̀ͮ̒ͥ̿ͬ̓ͦͦͤ͐͆̕͏̬̥̮͍T͎̯͍̫̩̹̥͈̯̤̆̓͆̔̄ͭͤ͘͟͟͠͡F̵̷̶̷̛̰̻̭̣ͥͩ́̿͋̔͂̓ͧ̅O̢̝̹͖̲͈̳̲̖͚̬̱̙̭̬ͬͨ͂̐̇͋̅̓ͥ̃ͬ͆͒͆͒ͪ̆̔͘Ȕ̵̵̷͔̤̜͙̱̟͙̦̺̪̖̗̦̙͚̦̬̠͎̔̈̃̉̄̈̔ͭͬ̚N̒ͨͭ͋ͨ͆͌͑̿̓̽͗ͬ̇̈́ͩ͊̚͏̻̣̭̘͔̹̱̯͈̕͞D̨̊̊ͧ̈̓̆ͣ͂̑͌ͮ̾͂̌͐͏̯̯̹̩̼̙̬̣̹͓͈̝̱͉̳̯̙ I still think wolfing Monika N1 was highly improbable and the amount of inactive players during that time is too high to ignore), so I won't act on that. I will however vote for THC, who is consistently posting stuff like "humans should watch out for [obvious bad thing], it's bad" and not really coming up with any strategies or adding anything substantial to the table.

[Dudeman]

Also I see now that Monika's mark kill doesn't happen automatically anymore. I don't really get why that wasn't made clear in the first place, but there's still no reason for Monika to not "mark pop" immediately after Night 5 because that takes out a huge chunk of players all at once, players that could use Day 5 to get rid of her crippling depression and sense of utter loneliness. She just wants to be friends. Give her a chance, okay?