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TWG XXXVI: The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya
The goal of the SOS brigade is to find something interesting like time-travelers, alien lifeforms, and espers!  ;D

(https://www.ninsheetmusic.org/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi923.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fad71%2FJub3r7%2Fmelancholy.png&hash=487f8a384482be577005914b8a7266fd877b9317)

1. Koizumi
2. Yuki
3. Mikuru

4. Kyon
5. Haruhi
6. Kyon's sister
7. Tsuruya
8. Asakura
9. Computer Society Officer Guy
10. Future Mikuru
11. Taniguchi
12. Kunikida

1. Mashi
2. SlowPokemon
3. shadowkirby
4. MaestroUGC
5. Dude
6. blueflower999
7. FSM
8. vermillionvermin
9. universe-x
10. Spyro
11. the_last_sheikah
12.

IN

Indeed

In.

Ex, er I mean In.

Yay, Latin humor

I'm sitting this one out, as I said before. Sorry.

TOTES IN.

We should have a Yuru Yuri based twg... AHAHA jk.

...Oh god Firefox recognizes Yuri as a word. The world as we know has ended.

Yuri is a common Russian name.

I kinda doubt Firefox recognizes it as a Russian name.

Yaoi isn't recognized though...

Sexist bastards at Mozilla!

In

I'm sitting this one out, too. Sorry fellas.

I'll join if the game is just short of a full roster, or in the event someone has to leave mid-game.

I.... really don't care for manhunts. I'm going to sit this one out. Sorry.

I turn my back for a week and you already have a new sign-up!  :o

In

IN

Quote from: vermilionvermin on July 30, 2012, 04:49:04 PMIN

D: he's alive!!

I'm bored.
in

It's like TWG's of Christmas Past over here...

Out of curiosity; why did people vote in the poll if they're not playing???

...we have 13 voters...and 12 spots...and we still need several people... |D

Quote from: Mashi on July 30, 2012, 06:21:24 PMOut of curiosity; why did people vote in the poll if they're not playing???

I voted, but than decided not to play.

EDIT:

IN

Only cause you need more people. Any plus I like cardflip more.

Can I change my vote?

I'd rather have cardflip than "Either way is fine"

Yeah, actually, I made it so you can.

Being all ninja MG again.

From a mathematical standpoint only, this game is HEAVILY towards the mafia side. If the game is played out randomly the formula for the wolves chances of winning is equal to the number of wolves divided by the square root of other players.

So..
1 wolf.. 4 humans
2 wolves.. 8 humans
3 wolves.. 36 humans
4 wolves.. 64 humans

You can see how it would quickly grow.

I realise that this is if people did random votes and didn't put thought into the game. But it would also happen with perfect players because they would have to do random votes as well. If you do the math on this game. 3/sqrt(9) = 1. By random votes the wolves would win every time. So, there should either be card flipping or a change in the wolves/humans ratio.

(Note that the probability gets thrown out of whack when you throw seers and guardians in.)

Anyways. That's my input. I did put a vote for cardflipping yes as well (which is a surprise to myself). As much as I'd like to play, I'm incredibly busy right now and my internet hasn't been reliable lately.

There should be one seer/guardian to mix the soup.  ;)

Personally, I'd suggest switching one of the wolf roles to a human.  A 2:10 Wolf: Human Ratio allows for the humans to have five lynches to kill two wolves, which I think is pretty fair in a manhunt. 

I voted yes on cardflipping because it helps give people more information, something often lacking in manhunts.

The mafia to innocents ratio should always be around 1/4 mafia and 3/4 innocent.

My opinion:
Master Wolf
Wolf x2
Seer/Guardian
Human x8

FSM, games can't go through such major changes after Host Sign Ups.  Sorry!

And Spyro, the point that master_gamer38 and vermilionvermin are trying to make is that Humans need a larger margin for error since they lack a significant Special Role (ergo, more Humans would be needed).

I was thinking that the cardflip would balance out the lack of Specials for the Human, but master_gamer38 and vermilionvermin (who are both technically TWC despite being inactive!!!) bring up good points.  Jub3r7, I'll let you decide whether to eliminate a Wolf and/or keep the cardflip (I think that the former is the best option.  Including the latter may make things a bit Human-sided, though, I'm not entirely sure).  Even if the game ends up being a bit unbalanced, it should hopefully be a fun one nevertheless.


Also, master_gamer38, I'm curious to know how you found or derived that formula.  It's quite an interesting one, to say the least.

I think 3:9 works well, and with cardflip it'd be more helpful, and without cardflip it would be more of a challenge!

We've done a manhunt exactly as the game is currently, with no cardflip, and as wolves we had to work fairly hard to win if I remember correctly. Or maybe I just felt like I worked hard, idk.

I think the current standings are fair, with or without cardflip, and that 2:10 would only make it too difficult for the wolves. :P

Quote from: SlowPokemon on July 31, 2012, 11:22:37 AMWe've done a manhunt exactly as the game is currently, with no cardflip, and as wolves we had to work fairly hard to win if I remember correctly. Or maybe I just felt like I worked hard, idk.

Slow, it was super easy that game because over half the human team was inactive. So we just wolfed and insta'd and nobody could do anything about it.

Activity makes all the difference. It doesn't matter how many of what characters there are, as long as everyone is active who should be active.

Quote from: Spyro on July 31, 2012, 05:55:50 AMThe mafia to innocents ratio should always be around 1/4 mafia and 3/4 innocent.

For smallerish games that could work. But I'm gonna refer back to the formula. Let's be absurd. We wanna play a game that has 50 wolves. How many humans to make random lynching 50% win either way? 10,000. Last I checked 50/10000 isn't 1/4th.

Quote from: Mashi on July 31, 2012, 09:53:18 AMI was thinking that the cardflip would balance out the lack of Specials for the Human, but master_gamer38 and vermilionvermin (who are both technically TWC despite being inactive!!!) bring up good points.  Jub3r7, I'll let you decide whether to eliminate a Wolf and/or keep the cardflip (I think that the former is the best option.  Including the latter may make things a bit Human-sided, though, I'm not entirely sure).  Even if the game ends up being a bit unbalanced, it should hopefully be a fun one nevertheless.

I think it'd be pretty close to fair if the game stayed the same but had card flipping. If it doesn't have it, mathematically it needs to change because it's very wolf-sided. Honestly, I don't really like card-flipping. But it would be a pretty good way to balance this game and make it tougher for the wolves, which in a man-hunt, is usually pretty easy compared to the humans.

I'm sorry that I'm busy! D: Work and Sound of Music Pit Orchestra!

Quote from: Mashi on July 31, 2012, 09:53:18 AMAlso, master_gamer38, I'm curious to know how you found or derived that formula.  It's quite an interesting one, to say the least.

I was working on making an game generator. And I needed to know if the game generated would be fair or not. So with everything being random, I would test. I did the average of like 10,000 games or something like that. And I would do it with man-hunts. I found 2:8 was really close. I later found out that wikipedia has an article. It can be viewed here. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_%28party_game%29#Game_experience_and_strategy) Other people have done and proven the math.

Alright, it's official, the game is a cardflip.
And FSM has inspired me to make some special roles!!!!!

Master Wolf
Master Wolf
Master Wolf

Green Seer x 9

Quote from: Jub3r7 on July 31, 2012, 04:20:46 PMAlright, it's official, the game is a cardflip.
And FSM has inspired me to make some special roles!!!!!

Master Wolf
Master Wolf
Master Wolf

Green Seer x 9

BEST IDEA EVER.

I still second this

slowpokemon and i helped to make the amended game

Trolololololololololololololol!  ;D

Any chance we can get this started before the end of summer break?

Quote from: the_last_sheikah on July 27, 2012, 02:26:24 PMI'll join if the game is just short of a full roster, or in the event someone has to leave mid-game.

That would be now.

i will give away cookies that may or may not exist to everyone in the game as incentive for two more people to join

Quote from: Mashi on August 01, 2012, 07:39:12 PMi will give away cookies that may or may not exist to everyone in the game as incentive for two more people to join

Chocolate Chip?!  :o

theyre made of exploding stardust
so sure

seems legit

I came back for pete's sake, more people join!

Rory and the Doctor should join.  :D

Jub3r7, considering the dearth of participants, I think that it would be fine for a 10 Player Manhunt including 2 Wolves without cardflip.  According to master_gamer38's calculations, the game would be a bit Human-sided, but I think that the game will be fine anyway.

I thought MG's calculations said it would be even?

Either way, I'd support this idea.

Me too.

oh right it did
i dont know how to read as you can see

Remember that everyone can remove their vote and place a different one, if they would like.

If the game is a cardflip, I'll keep 3:9, but if not, then I'll make it 2:10.

Ok, I'll join, but with band camp the next two weeks, so don't be surprised if I'm a tad inactive.

Still taking break :( is it possible for a 11 player one? :/

Quote from: Mashi on August 02, 2012, 10:28:25 AMJub3r7, considering the dearth of participants, I think that it would be fine for a 10 Player Manhunt including 2 Wolves without cardflip.  According to master_gamer38's calculations, the game would be a bit Human-sided, but I think that the game will be fine anyway.

Correct.

Quote from: vermilionvermin on August 02, 2012, 11:16:44 AMI thought MG's calculations said it would be even?

Either way, I'd support this idea.

No, mashi had it right.

Quote from: Mashi on August 02, 2012, 11:21:22 AMoh right it did
i dont know how to read as you can see

No, you were right in the first place.

With 2 wolves and 10 humans, the both wolves to have to survive 4 day phases to win or one survive 5. I can say with certainty that it can be tough to do that. With only 8 humans, it's mathematically even, and they only have to survive 3.

It's hard to win with being the only wolf. It's an extremely tough situation.

I'd suggest 2/8 no cardflip or 3/9 cardflip.

Quote from: K-NiGhT on August 03, 2012, 11:25:48 AMStill taking break :( is it possible for a 11 player one? :/

Odd number player games come out weird.

I don't think rolling with 11 players and only one wolf is a bad idea.  Statistically, it's about as balanced as it gets. 

Odds wolf survives Day 1:  9/10
Odds wolf survives Day 2:  7/8
Odds wolf survives Day 3:  5/6
Odds wolf survives Day 4:  3/4

Then, after Day 4, there would be three players and the wolf would win by sending in a wolfing.  My calculations say that a random town would win 50.8% of the time, which is pretty darn close to being perfectly balanced.

There needs to be at least two wolves. Especially with that many players. It would just be so lonely not having any teammates from the start of the game -_- I don't want to play in a game with only one wolf.

I did it once and it was sooooo coll

...so...game time? Or are we waiting to fill out the roster?

Given that it's been more than a week since signups started and we haven't filled the game up yet, I think we should try to work out something with eleven players.  I think that one wolf's a good idea, but that didn't seem to get much support from the other players.  If a lone wolf isn't what people want, I think it should be two wolves with cardflip.  Having nine humans actually makes the game more wolf-sided because the humans don't get any more lynches to find the wolves, and there are more people to sort through!

Just going through the numbers again:

If one wolf is lynched day 1, then we've got:
1 wolf, 8 humans
After day 2:  1 wolf, 6 humans
After day 3:  1 wolf, 4 humans
After day 4:  1 wolf, 2 humans
Wolves win on Night 5

If both wolves survive the entire game, then it goes:
After day 1:   2 wolves, 7 humans
After day 2:  2 wolves, 5 humans
After day 3:  2 wolves, 3 humans
Wolves win on Night 4

It doesn't matter for the wolves' win condition if you take off a single human at each phase.  Then in the first scenario, the wolves would win at the end of day 4, and in the second they'd win at the end of day 3.

If you saw this post and were like TL;DR, then all you need to know is that 2 wolves, 9 humans is actually more wolf-sided than 2 wolves, 8 humans so we should have cardflip if we're playing with 11.

I say just do 11 players, two wolves, and implement cardflip. It's not much point to sit around waiting for much longer....

If you're reading this and aren't sure what to say, please provide an opinion on this.  I'd like Jub to be able to start as soon as possible, so if you're not sure what to do now, say what you think of an eleven-person game with two wolves and cardflip!

I just want to get the game off the ground, I could care less about card-flips and wolf count.

It starts Monday 9 PM EST for those of you who wanted to know.

Finally, just when I was about to say out.

....so I guess it's too late for me to join and make it even?

Unfortunately, it is.  If you'd like, you can follow the current game and replace in if someone doesn't have the time to play.  I'd suggest reading it anyways because it's always a good idea to read one game before joining your first.  It's up to Jub3r7, but I don't see any problem with you posting a placeholder post so that you can get notifications on it.  It's definitely the best way to prepare for your first game.

Haha good idea. I have little to no idea of how to play this game, and I was hoping to find an open one to join

Join the next one! :D

...great, fresh meat...

Shadowkirby just dropped out soooo

Join! I'm sure it's OK to Jub!

Quote from: Bubbles7689 on August 09, 2012, 11:18:56 PMHaha good idea. I have little to no idea of how to play this game, and I was hoping to find an open one to join

Well, have you at least read the rules?  As spitllama stated, shadowkirby has left, so you can take his spot.  If you're still having trouble understanding the game, we would be happy to help you, so don't worry about playing poorly or anything.

Yea I think I know the rules. But if the game already started, how do I join?

PM Jub3r7 about it, he's the host for this game.

Yes, what MaestroUGC said.  Jub3r7 will tell you shadowkirby's Role and you will be replacing him as a Player.

I've already pm'd her about it, she's in the game now.

Quote from: master_gamer38 on July 30, 2012, 11:43:07 PMBeing all ninja MG again.

From a mathematical standpoint only, this game is HEAVILY towards the mafia side. If the game is played out randomly the formula for the wolves chances of winning is equal to the number of wolves divided by the square root of other players.

So..
1 wolf.. 4 humans
2 wolves.. 8 humans
3 wolves.. 36 humans
4 wolves.. 64 humans

You can see how it would quickly grow.

I realise that this is if people did random votes and didn't put thought into the game. But it would also happen with perfect players because they would have to do random votes as well. If you do the math on this game. 3/sqrt(9) = 1. By random votes the wolves would win every time. So, there should either be card flipping or a change in the wolves/humans ratio.

(Note that the probability gets thrown out of whack when you throw seers and guardians in.)

Anyways. That's my input. I did put a vote for cardflipping yes as well (which is a surprise to myself). As much as I'd like to play, I'm incredibly busy right now and my internet hasn't been reliable lately.

Bump.

MG, do you mind telling me how you came to the conclusion that that formula was correct? Let's think of a hypothetical game with 1 wolf and 5 humans. Your formula says that the wolf should have a 44% chance of winning if the humans lynch randomly. However, that isn't really the case!

There are three outcomes for this game.

1: Wolf is lynched day 1 (5 players alive). Probability = 1/5 - Human Victory
2: Human is lynched day 1 (5 players alive), Wolf is lynched day 2 (3 players alive). Probability = 4/5 * 1/3 = 4/15 - Human Victory
3: Human is lynched day 1 (5 players alive), Human is lynched day 2 (3 players alive). Probability = 4/5 * 2/3 = 8/15 - Wolf Victory

So with random lynches, wolves will win 8/15 of the time (53%) rather than the formula's 44%.

Also, take that game you mentioned where there's 9 humans and 3 wolves. The formula says the wolves would have a 100% chance of winning, but that can't be right since there are random outcomes where the humans may lynch all the wolves. Isn't it a possibility (a remote one) that the wolves would be killed on days 1, 2, and 3? If you compute the probabilities for all 12 outcomes of that game, you'll see that there's actually an 83.5% chance that the wolves would win if everybody voted randomly.

I'm not just posting this to prove you wrong or anything, I'm just really curious as to how you got that formula!