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Messages - therealmathguy

Hello everyone, glad to be back.

I am also curious as to why we have reviver claims already.
Death post:
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 09, 2024, 01:12:50 PM(taking up the math guy mantle now that the previous one is dead)

Fraud math guy out
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on January 09, 2024, 12:28:00 PMI haven't seen enough Math to fully convince me he's human.
Or maybe I won't expand on BDS since it looks like I'm dying

I'll convince you I'm human in a couple minutes
In terms of the davy read list, a lot of it is based on early reactions, a lot of which may have changed by now. The big differences are THC and a more extreme view of Oricorio. I'm not reading too much into it
Oricorio thoughts:
Much of early discussion is on grandma which I still find strange since it seems like a given to not lynch grandma. Much of it feels mechanical until BDS suggests figuring out grandma's identity and it opens up strategically (part of the perspective I mentioned).

I've only seen one GTH (unless I missed one) and that was early on.

Proceeds to elaborate on jester mindset, which now feels more helpful, but still honing in on the third party. Oricorio has fixated on third party roles before in the lantern game while being said third party, but this one is different since grandma has no value to town. GTH not grandma

Calls out davy for self voting. Good point, as only one role benefits from this.

Opinions of THC and BDS are different from mine. Given my weak stance on THC, I can't argue with that but I'll expand on BDS soon

Oricorio also suspects wolf Toby. I think toby's "I shouldn't have played this game" post stands out as more of a grandma post than wolf
Quote from: Oricorio on January 09, 2024, 12:05:43 AMSo you think that TZP/THC are town because "LAMIST"? It's a strange observation because if anything, for TZP it has been the opposite
Do you have any thoughts on my posts that aren't mechanical discussion?
Can you quote some of BDS's posts that have a "good perspective"?
Do you have any thoughts on davy's readslist?
I don't think they're town, I think they could be acting as town by subtly telling everyone they didn't get the grinch PM

Give me a little bit I'll answer the other points here too
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on January 08, 2024, 11:27:39 PMOne more quick post:Why TZP over THC?

Overall, feels like a soft sort of suspicion list, especially when he says "not a strong lean" on BOTH his top suspicions group together. Focuses a bit too much on things I wouldn't expect, mostly notably: "Oricorio - as BDS pointed out, early grandma conversation seemed like a softball conversation," "Davy - I'd like to hear an explanation on the self-vote too."
I didn't have much reason to put one over the other, but I thought TZP would've learned from last game not to overlook anything in the roles. It IS a soft suspicion because I'm taking one little thing and using that as my whole argument.

I also got ninja'd by Oricorio so I had typed in my vote before I saw Oricorio's if you'll believe me
Suspicion list:

Wolf (or grandma?) lean
TZP/THC - grouping them as I have the same reasoning. Both did a rule clarification/question (as did I, so I'm aware I'm not immune from this criticism either) that stands out as a little "I'm town, don't look at me" type of thing. Not a strong lean

Oricorio - as BDS pointed out, early grandma conversation seemed like a softball conversation. Could be an easy way to hop on the human train without giving away other strategies. But other mechanical conversation has good perspectives that could drive positive strategy (even if a lot of it is still focused on grandma) so probably not
Xiao/Toby - idk

Human lean
BDS - I disagree with those that said BDS's posts has been reactionary or lacking in content. A good perspective has been added with many posts
Davy - the early breakdown provided options for each outcome which I believe are only helpful to town (though, I don't see why anyone would help grinch except grandma but I don't get a grandma read either). Though I read human, I'd like to hear an explanation on the self-vote too

Early vote TZP
Quote from: Oricorio on January 08, 2024, 09:13:52 PMOh, his only post on the second post is a defense from math's point (though also a bit weird in that the same point can be used against them?) Yeah, I think TZP is a wolflean, even if there are a couple things that make me think twice.
Well, I think it's supposed to be more sarcastic even if it is true lol. But the strategic implications are different now so there's still a shred of validity to my observation.

I'm catching up now on stuff from today and will post thoughts/sus list soon
Quote from: Oricorio on January 07, 2024, 08:47:56 PMBut how exactly would that happen? A vote that is decided by the naughty list would essentially be a vote that was tied otherwise, in which case every vote would have been "decisive" anyway
Since the list is cumulative, the lynch victim could be down a vote or two and still lose in later days
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on January 07, 2024, 05:04:03 PMJust reviewed the roles and I totally missed that the Grynch has a seer ability. If you're Santa and a seer claims to you, don't take for granted that it's Rudolph—though I suppose the Grynch won't know which blue he seered.
I've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move
Quote from: Oricorio on January 07, 2024, 10:16:45 AMA bit of a meh post, while the former is something that wouldn't be terribly relevant to a wolf (although it could influence their strategy) it ends with a vague note on "unusual voting patterns". Still, this doesn't seem to be outside math's typical meta (even if I've only seen town!math once)
To specify, an example of an unusual voting pattern in my interpretation would be a player voting for someone that seemingly doesn't swing things but turns out to be the decider when naughty list is factored in
Howdy y'all

Will we know if we're on the naughty list? Either way, we'll have to watch for some unusual voting patterns