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TWG CV (Off the Grid I): Roll of the Dice

Started by mikey, April 30, 2018, 12:54:04 PM

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BlackDragonSlayer

Quote from: Toby on May 04, 2018, 07:18:07 AMInteresting how you vote before Raeko when you've contributed very little to "Toby v Raeko". Also since your last viewpoint on it was this (on phone so can't give proper log but you can search it in chat for your own reference until I post it properly earlier):

BlackDragonSlayer Today at 2:19am
Toby is acting so obviously suspicious, but at the same time I can't help but wonder if he has a point about you not logging on until after role PMs were sent out.
Then again, he could easily be lying.

It seems like you were still thinking about it, and unless you have a sure judgement it doesn't seem reasonable to vote before Raeko, who is presenting everything against me.

You also add in the point where I could be lying. Me lying about a hard fact anyone can check is silly, but nowhere you suggest that Raeko can be the one lying, instead you suggest this:

BlackDraonSlayer Today at 2:21am
It's completely natural to doubt yourself.

Just seems like a bit of a contrast to how you're approaching the different sides of Toby v Raeko.



Also seems like you like being suspicious of being opposing you, see olimar
excuse me

what
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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Toby

Quote from: Toby on May 04, 2018, 07:18:07 AMAlso seems like you like being suspicious of people opposing you, see olimar

fixed typo

Toby


FireArrow

Let's go. Basically, the game is split in half which is really good for us. It'll be extremely easy for us to round up the wolf team after this phase based on the card flip and I'm fairly certain which side to look into:

1. BDS See my first post this phase, compounded with the fact that Raeko shows up and you ride her coat tails while contributing nothing? Like, you were obviously there in the discord, but you only popped in to defend yourself then leave. To me, this looks like a disgustingly obvious wolf/human interaction where the human defends a wolf. You never voted yesterday, honest mistake or not, then today you add nothing to the table other than defending yourself while calling the person whose been suspicious of you all game a wolf. And when most of the calling them a wolf was done by someone else... yeah no. Also, you have a ton of potential wolf parters, including my other top suspicions greg and tras. Also also, your suposded wolf team you proposed was just everyone that disagrees with you. Much human, such wolf hunting.

2. Tras.
I feel kind of icky meta reading, but it just feels so painfully obvious to me. Also...

Quote from: Toby on May 04, 2018, 07:21:30 PMTras


i want log

3. Greg
I didn't like your day one play... at all. I think I've explained myself well enough. Day two... a lot better, but it's all directed at the easiest person for you to do it to. The only real assertive claim in your list is against Toby, who already has two players ganging on him pretty hard. I can easily see your improved play a meta change in response to my day 1 vote on you, because it was all done in the lowest risk way. Also, you make really good partners with BDS the more I think about it. You guys have very little public interaction or private communication, and you went from not being very suspicious of Toby to having him be your number 1 when BDS was the other possible candidate. You're only below Tras because of this mysterious log.

4. E Gadd.
Like greg said, the most suspicious inactive. There's not much to say other than you make great partners with BDS, and everything you've done is very bandwagony and... weird. Choosing to be active through only PMs? I'm not 100% gungho on killing you like the 3 above me just because this reminds me of the 100th game, where you were a weird, suspicious inactive human before randomly coming in as a clutch confirmed human at the end, so pls do that this game.

5. Toby
I think you're getting a bit misrepped here. I don't think raeko realizes that how you're playing here is pretty normal for human Toby. Also, you don't have too many compatible partners unlike the people above you on the list. Problem is we don't know what wolf Toby is like so meta isn't gonna get you very far, and raeko does have a good point that it looks like you were PR hunting, which if the tras log doesn't turn up anything, is the next best explanation for Olimars death. If BDS is green and if Tras is green/the log isn't incrimianting, you just up to the top.

6. Blueflower
I mean, you seem to be your normal, group-chat-hating self. I want to say you're human, but I've seen so little from you I'm uncomfortable making any hard claims.

7. ThatHiddenCharacter
Because I'm leaning on Toby being the human out of him and BDS, you seem pretty human to me. Everything you've done is perfectly explaing by humam THC trying to improve. Only thing against you is this:

QuoteToby - Today at 4:20 PM
im just going to vote for Tras because until I see log i'm not changing it
and maybe he will see that and be scared :<
@ThatHiddenCharacter what do u think of tras
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 4:22 PM
I had thoughts on Tras, but I'm a bit too busy to write it all out right now

Which to me looks like a wolf toby helping out a wolf THC. But I don't want to read to much into it unless BDS flips green.

9. raeko
You can kill me for saying this, but the angle shooting does have some value and was something I wanted to pursue investigating. Unfortunately, noc told us not to, and otherwise you seem extremely human to me. Your posts are well thought out and make sense, and I don't see why as a wolf the first thing you'd want to do is go after the most intimidating player of the game after being gone so long. Only thing I can hold against you is it seems like you're tunnel visioning on Toby right now, but I sure has hell have been guilty of that before (sorry dudeman :c.)
Quote from: Dudeman on January 23, 2017, 05:35:59 PM
straight from the department of redundancy department

raeko

Quote from: FireArrow on May 05, 2018, 12:33:58 AM9. raeko
You can kill me for saying this, but the angle shooting does have some value and was something I wanted to pursue investigating. Unfortunately, noc told us not to, and otherwise you seem extremely human to me. Your posts are well thought out and make sense, and I don't see why as a wolf the first thing you'd want to do is go after the most intimidating player of the game after being gone so long. Only thing I can hold against you is it seems like you're tunnel visioning on Toby right now, but I sure has hell have been guilty of that before (sorry dudeman :c.)

angle shooting does not deserve any value. I probably won't sign up for any games on NSM after this one because of this angle shooting nonsense not being banned tbh

FireArrow

awww but I'm enjoying playing with you. If it's of any reassurance angle shooting almost never happens in NSM because everyone except Toby is too lazy to actually look at things like that.
Quote from: Dudeman on January 23, 2017, 05:35:59 PM
straight from the department of redundancy department

Toby

BDS. For reasons I've already extensively covered.

Phase is ending soon and Tras deserves to be able to speak, though it's really disappointing he's just disappeared.



Toby

vote count:

toby 2 (bds, greg)
bds 2 (toby, firearrow)

1 hour 27mins left till day ends

mikey

The phase has been extended by 6 hours and will end at 10:00 PM CST.  Additionally, Trasdegi has been issued a warning for inactivity.
unmotivated

E. Gadd Industries

Alright. I know it's technically the day after I said, but I was doing a lockout with my youth group, and by the time I actually had time to do this, I was way too tired to analyze much of anything.

So here's the analysis post (as per usual, I'll be analyzing everyone):
2. BlackDragonSlayer
Overall human read. I still don't understand the point of the whole Toby reaction test with him, and the argument with Olimar appears justified from a human standpoint (Olimar was fairly jumpy). Not much else to be said, I feel. If anyone wants me to address further, ask specific questions & I'll address them. (This applies to all analyses)

3. Trasdegi
Very uncertain here. Leaning wolf. The big thing for me is that he seems to have rushed the last minute. Otherwise, I'm not exactly sure where all the suspicions is coming from outside meta reading. I'm really wary about the log rn. Honestly, I'm more inclined to believe the log either didn't happen & was fabricated entirely, or it was altered to have that bit thrown in there. What strikes me as off is the level of apparent nonchalance in that log Toby posted. For being this early on in the game, both of them are being pretty trusting of each other despite their skill level.

4. ThatHiddenCharacter
Human read. You seem to have legitimate interests for the human cause in mind. (And you haven't gone nuts like in previous games, so kudos for that!) Uhhhh... nothing else really to be said, if at least at the moment.

6. Toby
Wolf read. Since the beginning of the game, I was very inclined to believe that you were human. But the petty attack on BDS (and of all things, over times of waking up and being there for phase change??) AND the angleshooting involved around Raeko are hecka sketch to me. Seriously, are you really trying to hold people to your insanely high standards of playing and then passing it off as a reaction test? That seems a bit much for a reaction test, especially given that you REPEATEDLY asked BDS the same or similar questions, as if you were expecting him to give a different answer after the eighth time. Look, I know that I haven't played much with you before, but this seems a bit much for anyone with legitimate interest in the human cause. Like you're trying too hard. But because I don't know how a human Toby really is, I'm holding off on voting for you. If BDS dies this phase and flips green, however, your name will be bold in my posts when D3 arrives.

7. blueflower999
Idk. I can't get much of a read on you, but this is in part due to Discord. But that's okay. I'm going to go back through and read your posts again, and hopefully develop my read on you.

8. Greg
Questionable human read. You showed initiative early on by interviewing people on the Olimar/BDS thing, and posted with a good analysis (even if I don't necessarily agree with all of it). The part of the post that I'm referring to disagreeing with is the change from believing Olimar was a wolf to not based on how everyone was thinking he was. I'm not saying it's suspicious, but I do want to hear your insight on this, because I don't understand. Your posts in the beginning did seem a bit uncertain, but personally, I attribute that to rustiness. In addition, your mild suspicion of me is due in part to inactivity, which as I've learned from previous games, isn't always a valid reason to suspect someone as wolfy.

9. raeko
Human lean. I am terribly sorry about all the angleshooting play here. It's not cool. :/ Your sus post on Toby was really insightful, and it may end up winning the game for humans. Toby seems to be aggressive & driven enough that he could very well have escaped everyone's suspicions through sheer presence and "reaction testing" alone. Hopefully you stay despite being a victim of Toby's... dedication?

10. FireArrow
Human lean. Despite the fact that I disagree with your stances, you haven't given me much reason to believe you're a wolf. The biggest thing, I suppose, would be Toby's log where you appear to assume that the wolf special is brutal, even when it could just as easily be a wolf roleblocker. But I believe this isn't as important at the moment as the two big factions forming between BDS & Toby.

11. E.Gadd Industries
It's me. Concerning the suspicions on me, I'm seeing two main points: inactivity and bandwagon. Yes, I admit: my activity has been... less than satisfactory since the beginning of the game, but life got crazy, and AP testing starts next week. My focus has been finishing up on my Staristics work, not TWG. Hopefully when testing actually starts, my amount of free time will go up, as I won't be preparing for them as extensively. With bandwagoning, the only thing that comes to my mind is my stances on Olimar, pre-D2. (If there's anything else, tell me.) But in my mind, Greg did the explaining for me in posting our log as to why I thought Olimar was suspicious, and I was running on limited time at that moment anyway, so I had to just make a quick post. Coupled with forgetting about the absence of phantom votes, that's what led to my D1 vote. Feel free to ask me about anything else.


Tl;dr
Below is a list of players in order from most suspicious on top to least suspicious on the bottom.
Toby
Tras
Greg
Blue
THC
FireArrow
Raeko
BDS


Another issue is why Olimar of all people was wolfed. One possibility that I haven't seen mentioned yet is that perhaps the wolves wanted to frame BDS for Olimar's death. Think about it: the tensions between Toby & BDS didn't break out until after Olimar died, so the BDS/Olimar argument was still fresh in everyone's minds. As such, it would make sense to wolf one and frame the other. This would've given the wolves plenty of leverage to attack the survivor. Toby just took it a step further & decided to argue with BDS about waking up to see the phase change.
"Everyone is crazy but me"
-The Sign Painter


The entrance to my lab is hidden... somewhere...
Spoiler

[/spoiler
[close]

Trasdegi

Sorry for the inactivity, but I'm back!

Quote from: Toby on May 04, 2018, 07:21:30 PMTras

i want log

About this: what was your plan? Faking a log with Olimar to see if I would fake a log with Olimar, and then you would say "nope i faked this log, so Tras is a wolf"? That isn't working. I don't have any logs with Olimar. And only reason you would do this is to make sure to get an easy mislynch today as a wolf. So Toby.

Toby


Toby - Today at 8:41 PM
ok thc
i have deducted that if you and tras are wolves, I really don't think you two are partners
and i have a confession
there is no tras log
i faked the end of that log between me and olimar
but I figured if Olimar claimed to anyone it was Tras
so I wanted to see what happened
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 8:43 PM
Oh, Toby, this not good
Toby - Today at 8:43 PM
i mean not really
you need to keep it a secret until Tras comes back though
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 8:44 PM
I won't tell anyone, but seriously man, it'll just make you look more suspicious
Toby - Today at 8:44 PM
but it's important that someone else knows so I don't look super weird
i mean i'm trying to hunt down the wolf that caught olimar
i dont think that's suspicious
I'm not trying to frame tras
which is why it's important i let someone else knw
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 8:45 PM
I can tell this isn't going to end well
Toby - Today at 8:45 PM
lool
its taking so long so its getting awkard
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 8:46 PM
Tras is often offline
Toby - Today at 8:46 PM
yeah but not for an entire day phase
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 8:46 PM
You'd be surpirsed
He was only so active last game because he was the single wolf
Toby - Today at 8:46 PM
why bother play twg if this is something he does often
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 8:47 PM
I ask that all the time
Why do they let him play if he does this all the time is the real question
Toby - Today at 8:52 PM
well nsm struggles enough for players
lol
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 8:52 PM
I guess, yeah
Toby - Today at 9:00 PM
you're gonna be here for phase end (1 hour) right
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 9:00 PM
Hopefully
Did you see Tras' post?
Toby - Today at 9:55 PM
no
im playing overwatch hang on
game almost over
oh lol nice

ThatHiddenCharacter

BDS for the reasons I gave on Discord. And for those who aren't there or didn't read it, here's a summary of what I was saying.

ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 4:25 PM
If BDS flips green, then Toby is my first choice. His attack on BDS was pretty strong, but BDS just seems worse to me. About BDS --> He doesn't seem to have actually contributed. It seems more like he has a lack of contribution disguised as contribution by saying things that have already been said and jumping on bandwagons.

Also

ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 4:31 PM
Under the circumstances, FA. He seems to have been a bit more absent than usual, but he also appears to be genuinely trying to hunt wolves. And I've just seen a general lack of BS from him this game, unlike a good portion of the players this game.
raeko - Today at 4:32 PM
what type of BS are you referring to there
ThatHiddenCharacter - Today at 4:32 PM
The whole Oli/BDS and Toby/BDS exchanges
Neither of those should even have happened, they were so petty

(Note how both petty arguments involved BDS.)
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E. Gadd Industries

"Everyone is crazy but me"
-The Sign Painter


The entrance to my lab is hidden... somewhere...
Spoiler

[/spoiler
[close]

Greg

Alright, I'm switching to BDS. Hope this is the right decision...