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TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

Started by BlackDragonSlayer, August 17, 2023, 05:52:41 PM

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XiaoMigros


ThatHiddenCharacter

Quote from: XiaoMigros on August 19, 2023, 04:25:40 AMI think it's the only way for us to bring any sort of strategy into the game and put pressure on the wolf, so I am in favor of it. However, it's largely pointless if not everyone participates (and for this reason THC is #1 on my sus list)
I disagree. While it is technically a way to insert strategy into the game, it doesn't have any inherent way of helping us figure out who the wolf is, which would then mean that the only point of doing it would be if it made a significant difference in the likelihood of multiple kills. Which, as previously argued and mathed, doesn't make enough of a difference (to me, at least) to merit giving our plan away to the wolf, since they can just as easily see our plan here as the rest of us. There's also the fact that the wolf would most likely agree with the plan, since they would probably see it as a town thing to do. The plan itself is barely a detriment to the wolf, if at all, so there would be no reason for them to disagree with it if everyone else is agreeing.
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Toby

Isn't the probability of the wolf being able to target a specific player still the same whether we co ordinate numbers following my plan or not ?

The wolf has a higher chance of picking a players exact number sure, but isn't it the same probability that they will pick the number closest to that specific player ?

Toby

Say there was 10 humans in the game picking numbers 1-100, there's a 10% chance of either specific player dying.

Now say we all pick numbers that end in a different specific digit e.g. player A - 1. 11. 21, ... player B - 2, 22, 32...

If wolf wants to target player B so he chooses number 22. Still a 10% chance of getting them right ?

I'm not sure if the probability increases of multiple deaths due to equidistant number picks, I'm sure it doesn't really it might just feel like it though.

Toby

I played with some numbers and I'm pretty confident at this stage in the game there isn't a way for us all to do coordinate so that all 3 of below are true:
1) we all pick unique numbers
2) we all pick numbers that make equidistant ties impossible
3) we still make our selection random enough that the wolfs kill still remains random enough

These are the only numbers I found from 0-100 that if only these are selected and none are picked twice, a tie is not possible:
0, 3, 8, 15, 24, 35, 48, 63, 80, 99.

But if we were to co ordinate to make everyone pick a unique number, we would turn this game into a normal manhunt pretty much and the wolf gets his power back in being able to choose who they want to kill. Is that an even trade to ensure there aren't multiple deaths ?


ThatHiddenCharacter

Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 05:33:20 AMSay there was 10 humans in the game picking numbers 1-100, there's a 10% chance of either specific player dying.

Now say we all pick numbers that end in a different specific digit e.g. player A - 1. 11. 21, ... player B - 2, 22, 32...

If wolf wants to target player B so he chooses number 22. Still a 10% chance of getting them right ?

I'm not sure if the probability increases of multiple deaths due to equidistant number picks, I'm sure it doesn't really it might just feel like it though.
This is kinda what I'm getting at. Sure, we could calculate this to death, but that would only accomplish two things. One: It will just confuse us all to the point where we can't even think straight. And two: It would ruin the spirit of the game. The idea is to figure out who the wolf is using social cues and deduction. Trying to calculate the best number picks just drains the fun away.
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Toby

I actually very disagree that this line of thinking ruins the spirit or the game, quite the opposite - I think it is in the spirit of this game ! Numbers is the mechanics of the game and I'm sure we are free to act on that how we like. Working together as a team in co ordination is in the spirit of any twg! And either of the plans spoken of barely help us deduct who the wolf is, only through limiting the number of night kills and possibly letting us have more lynches. But I think any plan discussed so far has had its trade offs and nothing against the spirit of the game

XiaoMigros

THC, the reason the wolf would see this as a town thing to do is because it helps the town. Let us use this mechanic to our advantage, or at least use it at al. I've goty eye on you...l

Toby

The only plan I know using the mechanics to really help us find a wolf at this stage of the game, (if all parties accepted) could give a 1/7 chance of finding a wolf in exchange for a 6/7 chance of a double kill


E. Gadd Industries

Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 06:20:36 AMI actually very disagree that this line of thinking ruins the spirit or the game, quite the opposite - I think it is in the spirit of this game ! Numbers is the mechanics of the game and I'm sure we are free to act on that how we like. Working together as a team in co ordination is in the spirit of any twg! And either of the plans spoken of barely help us deduct who the wolf is, only through limiting the number of night kills and possibly letting us have more lynches. But I think any plan discussed so far has had its trade offs and nothing against the spirit of the game
I agree here, the game has a design that is meant to be strategized with so we can come up with some interesting plays. It just requires that we tease them out. I'm def curious to hear what strats BDS had in mind as he was coming up with this game, in post-game.

Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 05:47:08 AMI played with some numbers and I'm pretty confident at this stage in the game there isn't a way for us all to do coordinate so that all 3 of below are true:
1) we all pick unique numbers
2) we all pick numbers that make equidistant ties impossible
3) we still make our selection random enough that the wolfs kill still remains random enough

These are the only numbers I found from 0-100 that if only these are selected and none are picked twice, a tie is not possible:
0, 3, 8, 15, 24, 35, 48, 63, 80, 99.

But if we were to co ordinate to make everyone pick a unique number, we would turn this game into a normal manhunt pretty much and the wolf gets his power back in being able to choose who they want to kill. Is that an even trade to ensure there aren't multiple deaths ?


Responding to the underlined parts, part 1: so what you're saying is we might be able to come up with a strategy as the game wears on that would allow for coordination of that level?

Part 2: Hmmm... it's certainly a powerful trade, but I'm not certain who it helps more. The chances of multiple deaths are low, and if we do turn this into a manhunt, would we even be able to go back? Especially considering that the chances of multiple deaths will continue to drop as things progress.
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SpecsFlyer17

Toby, could you explain how your suggested strategy could help us identify the wolf? Not sure I'm following you there.
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Toby

Quote from: E. Gadd Industries on August 19, 2023, 09:00:11 AMI agree here, the game has a design that is meant to be strategized with so we can come up with some interesting plays. It just requires that we tease them out. I'm def curious to hear what strats BDS had in mind as he was coming up with this game, in post-game.
Responding to the underlined parts, part 1: so what you're saying is we might be able to come up with a strategy as the game wears on that would allow for coordination of that level?

Part 2: Hmmm... it's certainly a powerful trade, but I'm not certain who it helps more. The chances of multiple deaths are low, and if we do turn this into a manhunt, would we even be able to go back? Especially considering that the chances of multiple deaths will continue to drop as things progress.

Part 1: at this stage in the game, as I said above there's the 10 numbers we could limit ourselves to to ensure no ties. If we had 5 players we could have 2 numbers each which could at least change it to a 50% chance of the wolf killing who they want

Part 2: I mean sure every night you can have a different strategy so can always go back

Toby

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on August 19, 2023, 09:13:30 AMToby, could you explain how your suggested strategy could help us identify the wolf? Not sure I'm following you there.

The strategy I've mentioned doesn't

But I mean I could potentially tell everyone the number I picked making me a juicy target for the wolf. The number swapper could swap someone's else's number to match mine which if I die fulfils their win condition. Granting the wolf a double kill because it would be a tie. The risk for the wolf though is that if I die alone, the number swapper knows that they chose the wolf since the swap didn't work.

The wolf gets a double kill, knows who they are killing but risks the 1/7 chance that the swapper chooses them. Is it worth it for the wolf idk, maybe depends on who claims their number and if they're juicy enough of a target, but double kills are quite juicy too

ThatHiddenCharacter

Quote from: Toby on August 19, 2023, 09:52:37 AMrisks the 1/7 chance that the swapper chooses them.
The PNS' power only affects humans. Says so in the game post.
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ThatHiddenCharacter

I misread your post and didn't realize until I had just hit post, ignore my last statement, I'm dumb
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