TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Guess what time is it? SUSPICION LIST TIME!!!

WOLF LEAN:
davy: I've already talked about this to death, but to add to everything I've said, overall, I would just feel better if davy were out of the way today (among other things, as mentioned below, I feel like davy's cardflip would be helpful to get a solid read on Toby). For better or worse, I tend to doggedly pursue my suspicions unless something major comes up to change my mind, and at this point, nothing has come up yet to really shake my initial feelings about davy.

Slight Wolf Lean:
XiaoMigros: Last game cemented Xiao's reputation as a wildcard player, and I feel like a MYLO/LYLO situation with Xiao is inherently dangerous, as it's difficult to get a grip on Xiao either way. Even if the circumstances of Xiao's switch to a davy vote earlier are a bit fishy, I'm still supportive of a davy lynch, so I can't inherently hold that against Xiao. I'm not averse to lynching Xiao, but at the same time, I kinda feel like hoping Xiao is a potential target and one of the assassins will take them out for us.

Toby: I'll start by saying, I don't think davy and Toby are assassins together, and I get the impression that if davy is an assassin, Toby could potentially be his cold target based on what could be seen as davy's earlier subtle push toward Toby. In my DM to Specs I said that I felt like a lot of Toby's earlier posts were too much in agreement with davy (and at the time I felt like assassin Toby wouldn't want to potentially be seen as buddying up with someone who has such a potential assassin spotlight on them), but looking back on Toby's earlier posts I'm not really sure why I thought that (I think it was because this post that I felt was favoring an ignorant town, and davy backing Toby up; idk?); I don't think Toby agreed with davy nearly as much as I assumed he did. That being said, if davy isn't an assassin, I feel like Toby is more likely to be an assassin. It might just be burnout from last game + burnout from this game from seeing davy and I go back and forth without a lot of room to pop into the discussion, but I agree that Toby's early contributions to the game felt a bit like they were coasting. His initial push toward inactive players could go 50/50; on one hand, he is right that it's good to get inactive players out of the way quickly, but at the same time, given that this is a day start game and not a night start (and two potential night kills running around) it might be worth to sit on inactives for just a little bit longer for a few reasons.

Neutral:
ThatHiddenCharacter: I got a good vibe from his initials posts, and I told him as much via PM (he reached out to me first). I liked how he seemed a bit more contrarian than some of the other players, in a genuine and not forced way. However, his PMs to me have been a bit strange and have definitely counteracted my initial feeling toward him. THC has described himself as an "an agent of chaos" so I don't know what to think about that. In addition, his recent take on Toby feels a bit forced or unnecessarily sloppy.

A# Minor: Earlier, I would've had a more favorable view of A#, but recent posts have left me feeling a bit As A# is still a newer TWG player I've tried to adopt a more lenient stance rather than judging her I would I player I know has more experience under their belt. Overall, with davy and I sparring back and forth for much of the early game, I can get why she's felt intimidated to try and jump in, but overall I would strongly encourage her to try and overcome this and really dive into the game. Could lean higher depending on future actions.

therealmathguy: TZP (who knows him IRL) felt as if his relatively inactivity was suspicious for him, but at the same time he's still a new TWG player as far as I can tell. Overall, having made only two posts, I feel like he's the only player who doesn't have a solid D0 lean.

Slight Town Lean:
The Musical Poet: This has the potential to change later. Some of the things Poet said make me hesitant to to put her in the crosshairs just yet. Overall, I want to see more from her as she is able.

Town Lean:
TheZeldaPianist275: I think him claiming hot target as a wolf is the least likely possibility as it basically needlessly paints a target on his back from both sides (the other assassin if he himself is one, and extra scrutiny from town). I don't think he's 100% clear, but for the time being I suggest not lynching him this phase. A "wait and see" player, but likely to remain lower unless something drastic changes.

SpecsFlyer17: Specs is one of the players I've spoken with via PM (and the first I reached out to myself, as I got good vibes from his initial posts in the thread), and I get a good human vibe from his response. At the very least, he's maintaining a fair bit of scrutiny toward TZP (maybe just because he got burned by him last game ).

Me Tier:
BlackDragonSlayer: very sus

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm a bit tired, as I didn't really sleep well last night, but I plan to be around for phase end.

[The Musical Poet]

Reading these comments is making my head spin. I'm going to attempt to record all the info so I can slightly understand it better ;p;

[Toby]

math

Voting math for literally only posting twice this game and the only real take they gave was on TZP their irl friend which feels forced.

This is a day phase start, yes,  which means there's less to go off of than night start games. That's not to say nothing has happened so far but unless inactives  are cold targets, they aren't going to be the subject of a night kill and I'd rather give people who I can expect to post more, a better opportunity than someone who's barely going to post and we will never get a read off of.

Last game magnet almost made it to the final day phase but thankfully the random.org wolfing killed him so we were saved being in the awkward situation of taking a random leap and voting the player we'd had barely any evidence against in a LYLO.

I just think it's so easy during early day phases to vote someone for being a bit extra or a bit excited, or making an honest mistake and inactives just fly under the radar.

If we avoid lynching an active player today it also means we have more content to base our suspicions on by next day phase, whereas math guy seems like he'll make maybe 2 more posts by day 2 lol

[BlackDragonSlayer]

unless inactives  are cold targets, they aren't going to be the subject of a night kill

I disagree with that, given the possibility than inactive can still be hot targets or any other target an assassin might have an interest in killing.

I just think it's so easy during early day phases to vote someone for being a bit extra or a bit excited, or making an honest mistake and inactives just fly under the radar.

Fair point. I don't think an inactive lynch is inherently bad, just imo we have better targets already, and there's no reason to needlessly stall the game. If there weren't any good targets I'd be inclined to fully agree with you.

If we avoid lynching an active player today it also means we have more content to base our suspicions on by next day phase, whereas math guy seems like he'll make maybe 2 more posts by day 2 lol

Also fair, but an alternative is that everybody makes an effort to be more active rather than than a few players being "the active player." Generally throughout the course of a game, I'd say it's a good idea if activity is roughly equivalently distributed rather than one or two players completely monopolizing the discussion.

[Toby]

@BDS just to note : I don't think I've agreed with Davy on anything if I'm to be honest

I didn't agree with his plans
And I made a comment that certain things shouldn't be revealed to topic which Davy followed up and agreed with me on

But saying that I'm not sure if you've also realised that since your suspicion paragraph on me seems to go round in a circle where you realise I haven't actually agreed with Davy as you apparently though so lol

[BlackDragonSlayer]

@BDS just to note : I don't think I've agreed with Davy on anything if I'm to be honest

I didn't agree with his plans
And I made a comment that certain things shouldn't be revealed to topic which Davy followed up and agreed with me on

I pointed that out. I think at the time I saw davy's agreement with you and mixed that up as you agreeing with davy. Also, I'll have to go back and check, but I think there was another post davy made that made it seems like you were agreeing with him, but that's also up in the air.

But saying that I'm not sure if you've also realised that since your suspicion paragraph on me seems to go round in a circle where you realise I haven't actually agreed with Davy as you apparently though so lol

Everything I said is still true (I don't think you and davy are assassins together, and if davy is an assassin, you're probably his cold target), just for slightly different reasoning than it was at the time I initially came up with the idea.

[therealmathguy]

That was my feeling too, and because I was just called neutral and Specs was called townie. I wonder if Specs could be THC's ward and he's paid extra attention to trying to make him look positive to the topic.

Alternatively maybe I'm his ward and he's just wanted me to appear vague as to not be a wolfing target. It could also just be genuine and maybe I'm being held to a higher standard as I was more active last game lol

Shoot, I forgot that wards were known to assassins, that's gonna change how I think of things. This is very valid.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Shoot, I forgot that wards were known to assassins, that's gonna change how I think of things. This is very valid.

Mind giving a quick rundown on your game thoughts so far?

[Toby]

1. I disagree with that, given the possibility than inactive can still be hot targets or any other target an assassin might have an interest in killing.

2. Fair point. I don't think an inactive lynch is inherently bad, just imo we have better targets already, and there's no reason to needlessly stall the game. If there weren't any good targets I'd be inclined to fully agree with you.

3. Also fair, but an alternative is that everybody makes an effort to be more active rather than than a few players being "the active player." Generally throughout the course of a game, I'd say it's a good idea if activity is roughly equivalently distributed rather than one or two players completely monopolizing the discussion.

I split what you said into numbers so I can reply better on my phone

1. I mean sure they could be hot targets, but with math for example, he's posting so little it would be difficult for the assassin's to read him as a hot target. I'm not sure what strategy an assassin might have in trying to find their hot targets, but I'd probably just target players as normal and hope towards end of game the hot targets die by default

2. I mean that's your opinion. I just think often day 1 it's the more enthusiastic players that make a slip up and get read wrong and being enthusiastic doesn't inherently make you either wolfy or human. This would match Davys case where he's being read for swaying his opinion and trying to come up with strategies when that could all just be genuine day 1 enthusiasm. Xiao is another suspicion I guess which I could consider because he actually has been quieter than last game, where he threw out a lot more jokes and filler posts during day 1 compared to this game. Xiao also was incredibly hard to read in the end game LYLO. But I still honestly detest letting someone who has posted twice stay over others lol

3. I mean sure but will math guy for example be more active ? Magnet promised to be more active last game many times and didn't

We also don't really know how many mislynches we have this game and as the game goes on we will naturally have more content and 'evidence' against players who are more active which will make us less inclined to lynch an inactive posting twice a phase lol. I'll at least feel better going into day 2  knowing math guy isn't there and don't need to consider him lol, whereas if we lynched an active player and they're a normal human I'll have regrets we don't have their opinions around going into day 2 and we didn't give them a chance

[BlackDragonSlayer]

1. I mean sure they could be hot targets, but with math for example, he's posting so little it would be difficult for the assassin's to read him as a hot target. I'm not sure what strategy an assassin might have in trying to find their hot targets, but I'd probably just target players as normal and hope towards end of game the hot targets die by default

Sure, but I'd like to hope that the hot targets are more careful than to obviously reveal themselves like that. In a situation where inactive players aren't lynched, the assassin(s) might be forced to go after them (of course, that highly depends on cardflips), which would probably be the most ideal for town.

2. I mean that's your opinion. I just think often day 1 it's the more enthusiastic players that make a slip up and get read wrong and being enthusiastic doesn't inherently make you either wolfy or human. This would match Davys case where he's being read for swaying his opinion and trying to come up with strategies when that could all just be genuine day 1 enthusiasm. Xiao is another suspicion I guess which I could consider because he actually has been quieter than last game, where he threw out a lot more jokes and filler posts during day 1 compared to this game. Xiao also was incredibly hard to read in the end game LYLO. But I still honestly detest letting someone who has posted twice stay over others lol

If you feel that way, then personally I feel like Xiao would be better as a D0 lynch than an inactive, since both Xiao and an inactive player are essentially wildcards, but Xiao has more potential to be dangerous as an assassin (if someone is truly an inactive assassin, they'd probably forgot to submit their kill).

3. I mean sure but will math guy for example be more active ? Magnet promised to be more active last game many times and didn't

True. Depending on the results of today's cardflip of whoever gets lynched I'm not averse to reconsidering this D1. By that point we can at least say that they will continue to be inactive.

We also don't really know how many mislynches we have this game and as the game goes on we will naturally have more content and 'evidence' against players who are more active which will make us less inclined to lynch an inactive posting twice a phase lol. I'll at least feel better going into day 2  knowing math guy isn't there and don't need to consider him lol, whereas if we lynched an active player and they're a normal human I'll have regrets we don't have their opinions around going into day 2 and we didn't give them a chance

True, we don't know how many mislynches we have, which is part of the reason why we should start targeting suspicious players early. I don't think it would be good to end up in a lategame situation where all the suspicious players are left alive (granted, a lategame situation where all the suspicious players are gone and it's only inactive lefts isn't much better).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

And given how sporadically mathguy has posted, if he's a hot target, do you think he would be around close enough for him to claim as a hot target (and for us to wait long enough to see if anyone counterclaims) AND for us to not scramble for a backup lynch?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

And given how sporadically mathguy has posted, if he's a hot target, do you think he would be around close enough to the end of the phase for him to claim as a hot target (and for us to wait long enough to see if anyone counterclaims) AND for us to not scramble for a backup lynch?

fixed

[therealmathguy]

Voting math for literally only posting twice this game and the only real take they gave was on TZP their irl friend which feels forced.

I can explain my reasoning further if it would help it seem less forced.
I see it like this: claiming hot target has 3 cases.

Claim HT, actually is HT: Town may choose to believe and not lynch, assassins have to mindgame but now they are alerted to it and don't have to guess as much

Claim HT, actually "regular townie": goal here is to raise suspicions to alleviate pressure from an actual HT, but there's a chance an assassin already knows who he is. Seems like the riskiest play of the three.

Claim HT, actually assassin: alleviate pressure from self to avoid lynch, pretty self-explanatory

I know we're mindgaming so there's gonna be some wrenches thrown but this stood out to me. I'll stick with my safety pick until I see more

[Toby]

First and foremost sorry this is your first game math and I'm wanting you lynched day 1 but a games a game lol

But I want to actually draw everyone's attention to 2/3 of maths posts:

I'm down for the strategy of townies taking one for the team, drawing attention to anyone defending themselves or pushing for an alternate lynch.

That being said, I'm also a bit sus on TZP claiming hot target immediately. It seems like the outcomes hurt the town more than they help. It could be a gamble for ward, but the odds are against us on that. And even if he's telling the truth, surely one of the assassins will try to call his bluff at some point.

I've seen some of your opinions on this, what does everyone else think?

Math takes particular notice to TZPs hot target claim and tries to open further discussion to see what other people think of the claim. Interesting considering assassins are keen to kill their hot targets.

Shoot, I forgot that wards were known to assassins, that's gonna change how I think of things. This is very valid.

And then wanted to make a claim he doesn't realise assassins know the wards. Making such a claim is supposed to read as 'oh well if he doesn't know that, then he's probably not the assassin' but this is twg and people lie and deceive

Now if math guy was active and said many things these wouldn't stick out to me as much, but considering there's 16 pages in this topic and above is nearly all the posts he's made this game and he's paid specific attention to responding to these 2 areas. I find sus that these are the only points he wanted to raise