TWG LXXXVI: Mo' Money, Mo' Werewolf Games

[TheMarioPianist]

Well...that was unexpected...good luck without money updates guys...

[BrainyLucario]

6 left...2 of which have lost a life...I we don't find the wolves fast... This could be over quick...someone really needs to come up with a plan

[12Mari0]

ALL RIGHT. I'M GONNA MAKE THIS GAME A LOT MORE INTERESTING.
Um... after converting timezones, that was approximately 4:12 PM Pacific Time. At almost 6:20 PM Pacific Time, I got this message.
I told this to E Gadd, what is your opinion on this theory?

This brings up some interesting possibilities:
1: It implies that 12Mari0 has done some chatting with E. Gadd- at least enough to share his plans with him. *
2: Unless this was also sent to everybody else, I seem like a random person to send this to. Except...
3: The idea itself seems almost unfounded (TMP was completely uncounterclaimed, and even then, TMP had no reason to lie about Nocturne here, which 12Mari0 would have seen before sending his "theory" to E. Gadd, which he then sent to me), yet made with a specific purpose- this ties in well with point two.

So, what conclusions can I draw about this? Assuming that both E. Gadd and 12Mari0 are wolves, they probably sniped TMP, and then decided on a plan (albeit somewhat botched- for example, not realizing, as I pointed out in my reply to them- below^- that it would be hard to find an alternative "real" banker under this "theory") to make it look like they were more human to me (while simultaneously masking any future purchases), someone who, IIRC, was one of the few people who have voted for them, while expressing a serious reason behind voting.

In hindsight, 12Mari0's early agreement with Nocturne's plan to buy warrants could be clinging to an idea that, on the surface, seemed human (agreeing with an idea that seems so "obviously human" is an easy way to look human... obviously!!). Also, look who else did the same thing (comparison)!

* Judging simply by the thread, this has been going on for a few days, at least- likely longer:
And, in light of everything, this really isn't suspicious at all (guess who's blue, apparently!).
^ My reply to the PM:

Ok... First, the theory was sent at 12 AM forum time, and I only formulated it as a possible way that Noc could still be a wolf. It was a theory, no more, no less. Judging by BDS' criteria for theories, we'd all be wolves because we theorised that Noc was a wolf.
Second, I sent this to you because you appeared unsuspicious to me. Too bad that isn't the case now... Third, I was just thinking, and this idea seemed to be the only way that Noc could be a wolf.

Next, if I was truly a wolf, I would have counterclaimed banker in my theory, or at least imply that E Gadd or I were banker, or maybe throw the role to a random person. Alternative real banker... There are plenty of people who have been inactive, the banker may have been one of them. They might have been too scared to counterclaim if TMP was the accepted banker for a day or so.
I bought warrants because I have a strategy regarding their use. I can get a correct result 9/10, not that I'll tell my strategy to you most of all, that will screw it up entirely. But trust me, jumping on warrants wasn't a disguise to pass myself off as human.

Finally, I didn't know that I was being warranted at all. It came as a total surprise to everyone, even me when I came up blue. I'm in fact going to claim herring right now. Oh, and here's my prediction for the rest of the game;

I get lynched. I get warranted and painted red. FireArrow gets wolfedand dies. I get lynched and shot. I die. Yellow gets wolfed and dies. Egadd gets sniper'd and lynched. He dies. All of a sudden there are 2 people left... Yep, have a guess who they are... The wolves. Brainy and BDS. Why did Brainy buy a potion the night before he was lynched? I'm assuming BDS knew that he'd be lynched, so they lynched him. But brainy bought a potion on the night he lost a life. How did he know? Oh, and BDS, I don't think that it is too unusual to have a PM conversation in TWG game, yet you treat it like groundbreaking news... With all of this, I think that it's safe to assume that BlackDragonSlayer is one of the wolves.

[BrainyLucario]

If i bought a potion...and am in fact a wolf...the claim that TheMarioPianist had would have to be fake...and the wolves would not have the amount of money they had..

[12Mari0]

If i bought a potion...and am in fact a wolf...the claim that TheMarioPianist had would have to be fake...and the wolves would not have the amount of money they had..

Fair point.

[12Mari0]

Unlike last game however, each player starts with NSM$200. At the end of each day phase each player earns NSM$100 (except the Businessman who earns NSM$150 instead).
Whenever a player dies(=loses all lives), the player responsible for the killing (the wolf that send the PM if it was a wolfing, the player that bought/stole the item if it was an item kill) will steal all of the killed players money. If the player died by lynching, that players money will be evenly divided over the players that voted for that player.

We completely overlooked this! Noc could still have bought a sniper for his 200$ and the other wolf could have stole dudemans money!! Noc can still be a wolf!! And brainy, that disproves your point as well...

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Ok... First, the theory was sent at 12 AM forum time, and I only formulated it as a possible way that Noc could still be a wolf. It was a theory, no more, no less. Judging by BDS' criteria for theories, we'd all be wolves because we theorised that Noc was a wolf.

You're deflecting here; your theory involved TMP, the special who has claimed, being a wolf (something that you're apparently trying to mitigate once I called you out on it). Nonetheless, I think your main intent was to make yourself appear more human by killing him after you accused him of being a wolf.

Second, I sent this to you because you appeared unsuspicious to me. Too bad that isn't the case now... Third, I was just thinking, and this idea seemed to be the only way that Noc could be a wolf.

I think you sent it to me because I was suspicious of you earlier; you can't deny that you didn't notice it before, because you acknowledged it!

Next, if I was truly a wolf, I would have counterclaimed banker in my theory, or at least imply that E Gadd or I were banker, or maybe throw the role to a random person.

No, that's not necessary at all (or even very smart to do), and probably would just put yourself at more risk and increase your chance of failure (especially, but not exclusively, if your plan was more-or-less spontaneous).

Oh, and BDS, I don't think that it is too unusual to have a PM conversation in TWG game, yet you treat it like groundbreaking news...

I never implied that that fact itself was, by itself, suspicious- it's merely the content, the way and duration of how you've apparently been talking, and other circumstances behind your interactions (all of which would make sense if you were wolves).

With all of this, I think that it's safe to assume that BlackDragonSlayer is one of the wolves.

nice fearmongering + reaction to being accused

Seriously, I don't think you've provided much of a counterargument except by relying on the claimed truthfulness of your word alone.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Noc can still be a wolf!!

I don't know why'd you be obsessing over this other than that you're trying a desperate attempt to create a situation where you can't be a wolf.

[BrainyLucario]

BlackDragonSlayer, what makes you so sure 12Mari0 is a wolf? The real target we should be going after right now is Yellow...he appeared red...he needs to be gone..

[12Mari0]

You're deflecting here; your theory involved TMP, the special who has claimed, being a wolf (something that you're apparently trying to mitigate once I called you out on it). Nonetheless, I think your main intent was to make yourself appear more human by killing him after you accused him of being a wolf.
I think you sent it to me because I was suspicious of you earlier; you can't deny that you didn't notice it before, because you acknowledged it!
No, that's not necessary at all (or even very smart to do), and probably would just put yourself at more risk and increase your chance of failure (especially, but not exclusively, if your plan was more-or-less spontaneous).
I never implied that that fact itself was, by itself, suspicious- it's merely the content, the way and duration of how you've apparently been talking, and other circumstances behind your interactions (all of which would make sense if you were wolves).
nice fearmongering + reaction to being accused

Seriously, I don't think you've provided much of a counterargument except by relying on the claimed truthfulness of your word alone.

Just because someone thought that maybe someone was a wolf - something that seems silly in hindsight - doesn't imply that they are a wolf themselves. Yes, my theory involved TMP. I can't deny that. But no, that doesn't mean I'm accusing him of being a wolf. And I had at least 3 times where I said that it is possible, maybe, theory. This was more me spitballing to Egadd. My main intent was to partially clear suspicion, but the humans need to do that as well. If you're suspicious of me, I don't want to get lynched by you, regardless of whether I'm a wolf or not. On the other hand, who would I send it to? Brainy - suspicious. FireArrow - hardly said anything. Yellow - same. BDS - only "confirmed" human. This theory is pointless without anyone to back it up. It is obsolete now, but that wasn't the case when I formulated it.

I can't argue with your third point, and I'm not even going to try. And with the fourth point, you have a vague idea of what I've been saying - you only have knowledge of one message! One! You have even less of an idea of how long we've been talking... But that's beside the point. And finally, assume that I am a wolf. Why, as a wolf, would I point out that my partner may be out of the game?! I could have left that last message out just as easily, and you countered it quickly. It was not designed to add strength to my argument, I did it to help the humans!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

BlackDragonSlayer, what makes you so sure 12Mari0 is a wolf? The real target we should be going after right now is Yellow...he appeared red...he needs to be gone..

Red... from a possibly unreliable source? Think about it...

[BrainyLucario]

Red... from a possibly unreliable source? Think about it...

Maybe he chose to paint someone else instead of himself. E. Gadd's warrent might have caught him off gaurd...

[E. Gadd Industries]

You guys can seer me, I don't care. I mean, I honestly think BDS is looking for a cover excuse, but I'm voting Yellow, based on my seer results.
On another note, I never said I was making an alliance with 12Mari0. The only reason he PMed you our conversation was because he thought you were the most reliable person, someone who could help him analyze the results of his theories. I can even quote him (not off-hand, but I'll go back and find it) to prove it.

[E. Gadd Industries]

*double post*

Ok. Should I pm this conversation to BDS? He is the least suspicious right now...

And how did I respond to that, 12Mari0? (I don't save copies of sent messages.)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Yes, my theory involved TMP. I can't deny that. But no, that doesn't mean I'm accusing him of being a wolf.

Well, before he was sniped, you were.

Actually, I'm suspicious of a TMP/Noc pairing

If you were not actually suspicious of him (as a human), why send the plan to me at all? It all seems unnecessary unless there's some bigger plan behind it.

Why, as a wolf, would I point out that my partner may be out of the game?! I could have left that last message out just as easily, and you countered it quickly. It was not designed to add strength to my argument, I did it to help the humans!

Interactions with a partner in the thread are somewhat normal (as I pointed out already). Likely, when PM'ing me, you'd think E. Gadd wasn't at risk because earlier, I expressed the belief that he was likely to be human.