TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[Olimar12345]

Let the chaos ensue! It is all for my beloved wolf-senpai!!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

oh, HBD BDS--we'll try not to insta anyone today so you can enjoy the day haha

Many thanks!!!

[magnet]

Ahhhh!

I'm so sorry guys!  I need to give you my most sincere apologies for not being active! I totally forgot and it's all my fault. So sorry for messing up the game.

[magnet]

To be honest, I'm still not sure who to suspect, and I don't want to throw around any false accusations at this point in the game. 

[SpecsFlyer17]

Im curious to hear your side of the story Olimar. Although "wolf-senpai" leads me to believe you'd rather keep things between you and the wolf.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Current Votecount

2. TheZeldaPianist275:
3. Olimar12345:
6. SpecsFlyer17:
7. XiaoMigros: Olimar12345
8. magnet:
9. Toby:

Olimar12345: 1

4 votes to insta.

[close]

Phase ends in approximately 24 hours.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

All right, everyone has seen the thread, so I feel like I need to share my suspicion list. I see no suggestion that Olimar's PNS claim is not to be believed, so he's not on this.

4. Specs--he is my best friend, this is his first game, and we've had a PM sidebar going since the start of the game. I really think that if he were a wolf I would have caught some kind of indication of this by now. The only wolfy thing I've seen from him is jockeying for A# to say for sure whether she *really* was the PNS, even after pretty much everyone else had arrived at the consensus that the lack of clarity around A#'s claim was a good thing.

3. Xiao--your bombshell plan still kind of confuses me, and it's certainly not something that I would do, but I'm finding it tough to interpret it as a wolf play over a kamikaze human play, and I find you far less suspicious than the next two, so you're still in the "less suspicious" half of my list.

---

1. Toby and Magnet both, tied. The single wolfing makes sense for you two, and as far as I can tell, only for you two. The wolf!Magnet explanation is simple--he just forgot about the game and wasn't online to take advantage of a targeted wolfing. However, if Toby is a wolf, Olimar saying that he might switch Toby to his number to line up a double kill for the wolf puts Toby in a very tight spot. In this case, Toby would not be able to hit 50 with a wolfing without exposing himself, since Olimar's power would fail when used on him, and his only option would have been to hit a different number entirely.

TL;DR the only way I see the missed double wolfing making sense is if the wolf a) didn't see that he had the option to wolf two people or b) the wolf himself was on the chopping block. If a), the wolf is Magnet. If b), the wolf is Toby.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Magnet
I doubt he is going to come online before phase end, he hasn't been online for a few days. As of writing this post he hasn't been online yet and it's 2 hours 50 mins before phase end (as of drafting this ). Depending on what the number is tonight depends on if he's a wolf or not for me. Either me or A# is getting swapped to 50 apparently so if 50 isn't the death number then I'm going to assume the number was randomised due to magnet being afk. If 50 is the death number it clears magnet. (this is dependant on him actually coming online before phase end)

Another point in the wolf!Toby column--he very directly started framing an explanation of why the number chosen would implicate Magnet if it wasn't 50 just before the start of the day phase. Obviously this is also something he could do as a human, but if he is a wolf trying to talk himself out of a tight situation, I would expect to see something like this to prime the discussion prior to the reveal of the number that was actually chosen.

[XiaoMigros]

Yeah, Toby conveniently fails to account for the most important component in this number-choosing logic..

[Toby]

Another point in the wolf!Toby column--he very directly started framing an explanation of why the number chosen would implicate Magnet if it wasn't 50 just before the start of the day phase. Obviously this is also something he could do as a human, but if he is a wolf trying to talk himself out of a tight situation, I would expect to see something like this to prime the discussion prior to the reveal of the number that was actually chosen.

But I'm not in any tight situation? Any suspicion on me day 1 was revoked. And I actually got a PM during night 2 from Xiao saying he thought I was human.

[Toby]

Yeah, Toby conveniently fails to account for the most important component in this number-choosing logic..

Which is ?

[XiaoMigros]

Exactly what TZP said: That only wolf!you (or wolf!A#) wouldn't pick 50 and get a double kill. Unless it's magnet

[Toby]

I have a PM from Olimar claiming to me as well as the claim he made in the topic. If I felt threatened that the plan yesterday could have revealed my wolf identity, I could have easily contact Olimar to swap someone else to a different number and him match that number and I wolf it. Creating a double wolfing on a new number altogether, proving that the wolf and PNS worked together to wolf someone else.

However, from Xiaos chats with Olimar, we can deduct the wolf didn't reach out to Olimar and Xiao was the only one.

To me that tells me either magnet is the wolf and the number was randomised instead of 50

Or I've been leaning Specs, so it's likely possible he simply didn't see the benefit to the PNS being killed, or me. But His lack of trying to point any finger on me today makes me curious though. If the wolf wanted to keep me alive to put suspicion on me today, they probably would have given me a nudge in the topic by now ...

I've been swaying magnet or specs but I don't think we will get very many more words out of magnet to read off of, whereas at least Specs chats and we can read his posts

[Toby]

Exactly what TZP said: That only wolf!you (or wolf!A#) wouldn't pick 50 and get a double kill. Unless it's magnet

Sorry I guess when I typed up my suspicion list and posted it last minute (setting my alarm for 2:55am) as I predicted I was going to die. I failed to point suspicion towards myself ! Lol

[magnet]

 What's the 50 thing bit about? I don't think I understand