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TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

Started by TheZeldaPianist275, October 19, 2023, 05:40:24 PM

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davy

Okay, I'm done lying for this game, so sit around everyone, it is time for

The revealtm

Part 1: The Slightly Too Conspicuous Spy Plane

The seer is very important this game. As there are no millers, any red result is a guaranteed wolf, and any green result reduces the pool of possible red players. So I wanted to make sure we would learn the n1 seering result, so I was about to suggest a near end of night seer claim.

And then I realised something: we could have a player fake claim seer with some 5 to 15 minutes to go till end of night, to hopefully draw the wolfing to them and keep the real seer safe during the night.

The ideal player to make the fake claim would be Specs. Specs had been nearly lynched d1, and so was likely to get lynched d2, which would lose town the game if he was the 2nd mislynch. So I approached Specs with the idea of fake claiming.

While I was writing my message to Specs, I pondered what would happen if he did not get wolf'd. I concluded that it would draw out counterclaims, and that town could use that to deduce who is the real seer and who is a wolf fake claiming better than if town just ask for seer claims start of d2. So while Specs getting wolf'd was certainly prefered, town would benifit from him fake claiming either way.

I was also the one who decided what Specs claimed seering targets would be. Green on me n2 was quite obvious as I was an obvious seering choice for seer!Specs after him being so suspicious of me d1, and with me being the target, we would be sure that a green seering wouldn't be on a red player which would reveal to the wolves that Specs' claim was fake (of course, this entire plan hinges on the fact that I am not a wolf, otherwise there is no point in suggesting to sacrifice Specs to the wolves).

The math seering is a bit more complicated to explain, so I'll just paste the message I sent to Specs about it here:

Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 02:47:18 PMSo you can either claim a green, a red or a purple seering. Red won't do, because you'd've gone after your seer target last day phase rather than me. A purple seering on Oricorio falls through if he is a wolf rather than the Strange Man, a purple seering on anyone else falls through if Oricorio isn't a wolf.

So that leaves a green seering. A green seering on Toby or A# won't do, because you wouldn't risk getting wolf'd to get information out that town already knows. Green seering on Oricorio won't do because he's likely the Strange Man or a wolf. Green seering n1 on me won't do because you wouldn't have pushed for me.

That leaves math, xiao, bds, thc and poet. Out of these five, there are likely 2 reds. If you call a green seering on either of these (40% chance with random seering) the wolves realise that you are lying and the plan falls through. thc and poet have been inactive, so they can fall either way, xiao is notoriously hard to read so I've heard, and BDS tops a bunch of suspicion list. Imo, math is just the safest bet. But you can pick any other of the four players if you think they are unlikely to be red or if you think it makes justifying your day 1 actions easier.

So yeah, my suggestion is n1 math green, n2 davy green

Finally, I suggested Specs PM Toby that his claim is fake very close to end of n2 so that I would not be the only player who could back up that his claim was fake. Toby was chosen because he was green and even if he was the Master Wolf, he would not be online to spill the beans to his wolf partners (because timezones).

Specs had a couple of questions, but came across to me as optimistic about the plan, and confirmed to me he was in after a little back an forth messaging.

He did opt to claim a little earlier (which ended up being just a minute early), to increase the chance that wolves would actually go after him with their wolfing. I had my reservations about that, as it increased the chance of the true seer counterclaiming before phase end, and increased the chance of the wolves not going after him (as the claim would be more shaky, and they'd have more time to realise something was up), but I left the decision up to him.



Unfortunately, we did not get the optimal result, as Specs wasn't wolf'd n2. However, we did draw out a counterclaim from THC, which, as he called me out as a red, I was able to immediately deduce was a wolf fake claiming to counter Specs.

Since everyone else but Toby and Poet had posted since Specs fake claim, I deduced that the real seer had to be either A# or Poet. This is why I requested Poet to counterclaim, as if she didn't counterclaim, that would mean A# was the seer. Or at least so I thought, until I got a surprising message a little later in d2.
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

davy

Part 2: The Clairvoyant Slayed Slayer

In case you couldn't tell from the title, this part is about BDS.

So to start of: FREAKING HELL BDS, WHY DO YOU ALWAYS HAVE TO POINT OUT THE FLAWS IN MY PLANS IN THE TOPIC WHERE ALL THE WOLVES CAN SEE THEM. At least I have the courtesy to not point out the flaws with your strange man claiming plan.

Okay, so with that out of the way I received a message from Toby this day phase. This revealed the following things:

    - Toby, BDS and Xiao were the lantern holders last phase.
    - After Specs fake claim, BDS claimed in PM to Toby. This explains why he didn't counterclaim Specs in the topic, and why I was wrong for assuming that he wasn't the seer.
    - BDS was seered by the lanterns, which confirmed that he was blue, so both Toby and Xiao should know this.

Toby requested that I did not share this info with anyone for a little while, in an attempt to draw out more wolves. So I hadn't until now, so this is also news for Specs. I did tell Toby that I would reveal everything before I go to sleep today, as I want town to have enough time to make the correct lynch with all the information. Which is why I am revealing it now.

So, with this reveal I'm asserting the following things:

    1) I'm a human, who tried to get a suspicious player wolf'd in an attempt to protect the seer, while trying to increase the chance that the real seer could claim safely.
    2) THC is a wolf who is fake claiming seer to get me lynched and (assuming Oricorio wasn't a wolf) win wolves the game.
    3) Specs is not the seer. Specs is very likely to be town, as wolf!Specs would have instructed THC not to counterclaim him with a red seering on me (basically sacrificing THC)
    4) Toby is also very likely to be town, as wolf!Toby would be throwing THC under the bus right now by revealing that BDS is the seer to me.
    5) Xiao has to confirm if he lantern seered BDS blue. If he does, he knows THC is lying and he should join us in lynching him. If he doesn't, he is lying and is actually THC's wolf partner.
    6) Math and Poet, one of you is likely town, the other one likely a wolf. It's my job this phase (along with anyone who is already convinced of my humanity) to convince the town player among you that I'm speaking the truth now and that THC is lying. The game probably comes down to this: Lynch me and town loses, lynch THC and town is going to win. Of course, THC will say the exact opposite.

And finally, here is all the messages since start of n2 between me, specs and Toby, in chronological order.

Spoiler
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 08:41:21 AMHey Specs, I'd like to pitch an idea to you:

If Oricorio was indeed the Strange Man, next day phase is Lylo. You are currently the player most likely to get lynched next day phase considering you were already nearly voted out last day phase, so if you are human, I'd rather see you get wolf'd this phase then any other player.

Additionally, I'd really like the seer to survive this phase (assuming A# wasn't the seer) so here is what I am thinking:

Shortly before the end of the phase (somewhere between 15 and 5 minutes before the phase change) you claim seer with a green seering on someone (my preference would be mathguy). You can reason this that you want to make sure town learns of your seering result in case you get wolf'd that night phase. At the same time, you can shoot a message to Toby telling him that this is a fake claim. This should be no problem if he is the Master Wolf, since he should be sleeping at that point (because timezones).

The idea is that you do this late enough to be believable, but early enough that the wolves still have a chance to change their wolfing to you. That way, the real seer will survive and we don't waste a lynch on you.

If the wolves opt not to wolf you, you should reveal a green seering on me (it'll make sense that you would seer me after last day phase) and then someone should ask for counterclaims (I will if no one else does). If no-one counterclaims you, that means A# was the seer. If you get only 1 counterclaim, that player is most likely the true seer (barring the 1/6 that A# was the true seer). Wolves are not likely to counterclaim if there is already two players claiming seer, so a third seer claim, if that even happpens, is more likely to be the true seer than the second seer claim.

Then after the counterclaims have come in, you can retract your claim, saying that it was a ploy and that both Toby and I can back you up.

Thoughts?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 09:50:14 AMJust getting off work, I'll read over this and get back to you in a minute.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 11:20:58 AMI guess my only question is don't we want the seer real seer to remain anonymous? This will draw out the real seer, which would make a potential N3 wolfing target. Is that tomorrow's problem?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 11:25:01 AMAnd what if the wolves don't go for me tonight if I claim? 15 minutes isn't a lot of time, and there's no real reason  for them be checking the forums at the last minute. What do you think?
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 11:28:09 AMI want the real seer to claim day 2 regardless because we may just lose the game next day phase and I want the seer to have claimed before the game ends (nb. am on mobile rn)
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 11:33:19 AMIve already addressed that, but to recap: if you live, we have a better chance of finding the real seer than if we dont do this plan.

Butif you think you have a better chance of dying if you claim a little earlier, go right ahead.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 12:58:57 PMA few more questions- any particular reason you want Math seer'd? Im cool with it, just curious why he was your recommendation. Seering you makes sense given how suspicious I was of you last day phase.

And to confirm, N1 seer'd Math green, and N2 (if I don't get killed) seer's you green?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 02:29:43 PMI think I'll claim a little earlier to give the wolves more time to react. I'd rather error on the side of getting wolfed and then freeing up D2 lynching for a wolf, rather than have me lynched and cost us the game.
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 02:47:18 PMSo you can either claim a green, a red or a purple seering. Red won't do, because you'd've gone after your seer target last day phase rather than me. A purple seering on Oricorio falls through if he is a wolf rather than the Strange Man, a purple seering on anyone else falls through if Oricorio isn't a wolf.

So that leaves a green seering. A green seering on Toby or A# won't do, because you wouldn't risk getting wolf'd to get information out that town already knows. Green seering on Oricorio won't do because he's likely the Strange Man or a wolf. Green seering n1 on me won't do because you wouldn't have pushed for me.

That leaves math, xiao, bds, thc and poet. Out of these five, there are likely 2 reds. If you call a green seering on either of these (40% chance with random seering) the wolves realise that you are lying and the plan falls through. thc and poet have been inactive, so they can fall either way, xiao is notoriously hard to read so I've heard, and BDS tops a bunch of suspicion list. Imo, math is just the safest bet. But you can pick any other of the four players if you think they are unlikely to be red or if you think it makes justifying your day 1 actions easier.

So yeah, my suggestion is n1 math green, n2 davy green
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 02:51:55 PMSure it's your call. Just be aware that claiming early risks:
1) getting counterclaimed by the real seer before the phase ends, and the wolves killing them n2
2) giving the wolves enough time to realise you are fake and you not getting wolf'd n2.
3) having a shakier claim (the closer you are to phase end, the more believable it is), also ending up with wolves realising you are fake and you not getting wolf'd.

And finally, don't forget to inform Toby (this preferably as close to phase end as possible). We need to have an extra player backing up that your claim was fake.


Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 04:10:58 PMChecks out. I'll probably stick with math, as I was pretty high on him D1. Someone (Oricorio, I think) pointed out that he was the only person I had any significant town lean on at one point.

Points taken about claiming early. Ill try to balance things out.

Final question, why did you pick Toby for the proof? Not criticizing, just trying to analyze what's going on here.


Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 11:10:37 PMHey Toby, Specs should by now have informed you that his claim was fake and an attempt to get wolf'd. We co-ordinated this together. I will post the messages later after poet has posted.

THC's seer claim is also fake. I know that because I am green, so his red seering on me is a lie. Of course, from your perspective you can't be sure about this, but I'm giving you this info from my perspective.

Since Xiao, BDS, math and I have already posted after Specs claim and didn't counterclaim, I believe all of them are not the seer. You have been seered green, so you can't be the seer either. That means either A# or Poet has to be the seer from my perspective. If Poet counterclaims seer, they are the true seer. If not, A# is the true seer, meaning we unfortunately already lost the seer n1.
Quote from: Toby on October 25, 2023, 03:56:11 AMHey from my view rn you're the most trusted town

The real seer was BDS, he claimed to me in PM after Specs claim, and this was also verified as we had used our lanterns to seer him

The other lantern holder, Xiao also knows BDS was blue, which should tell Xiao that both Specs and THC's claims are false, however Xiao has suggested since in topic to either lynch Specs or (going by THCs red result) you - but not THC.

Bds said he had a green seeing result on Xiao

I'm wondering if Xiao is the green wolf and THC could be normal wolf but need to see how it plays out further

Before revealing THC is a fake claim I'd like to see it play out a bit longer and see if we can deduce more wolves

Id prefer you didn't share this with anyone, I'd say Specs is likely human now but I'd still prefer this not shared with him

Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 25, 2023, 04:50:20 AMIt appears we pulled out "the real" seer, THC. Do you have a timeline in mind of going public with your plan and my fake claim? Assuming Toby doesn't say anything. Waiting a bit longer may pull out a third seer claim, too. What do you think?
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 06:53:46 AMCool. I'd say you are the most trusted town from my view as well. With THC being a confirmed wolf from my perspective, there's no reason why you'd throw your partner under the bus by revealing BDS as the real seer to me.

I think you should push Xiao to reveal BDS was blue. It forces him to either confirm he's a wolf by refusing, or exposing THC as a liar.

Xiao master wolf and THC normal wolf makes sense to me. Any of the other three people could be the final wolf, but I'd say poet is more likely than either specs or mathguy.

I get what you mean, but I also don't want to make it too long. BDS being the seer is almost too convenient for us, and THC will try to convince town that we are making this up and that we are actually the wolf pair, and we are going to need to have enough time to convince the rest of town that THC is lying. Atm I'm planning on revealing everything right before I go to sleep, to ensure we'll have more than 24 hours with all info on the table.

I'll refrain from sharing this for now, but I will add you to the messages with Specs, considering him and I both know you know the claim is fake.
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 07:00:26 AMAdded Toby since he already knows your claim is fake.

Quotation marks around the real indeed. To me, it is certain that he is a wolf, as I am a human and no human is seered red in this game. My plan is to reveal your claim was fake before I go to sleep tonight. That ensures we have more than 24 hours to convince everyone to vote for THC. Still hoping to see a seer counterclaim from Poet, otherwise A# must have been the seer.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 25, 2023, 07:38:24 AMI'm curious why he even bothered claiming seer though? He wants you dead? That could wait until N3, and there wasn't a whole lot of suspicion around him before this.
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 07:45:57 AMIt is a very bold move indeed, and I applaud him for it.

But consider his position: The seer has just claimed with a green result on math. There is also a green result on Toby, with two more seering results comming in (one from the lanterns and another one from you). Even if all of those results are green, that means that of 7 remaining players 4 are green, one is the seer, and the other two are red. Assuming THC is a red wolf, not counterclaiming you has a very high chance of exposing him as one.

Also, assuming Oricorio isn't his partner, there is no waiting until N3, killing me (or any human for that matter) D2 wins the game for the wolves.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 25, 2023, 07:46:50 AMAlso, do you think it would be beneficial going public with "I claimed with 20ish minutes remaining so the wolves had a chance to see and take me out; if I was on the table to be lynched D2, Id rather be taken out N2 to allow D2s lynch to be focused on a wolf"? Reason I ask, is there seems to be some uncertainty regarding my timing being too early, but that was the point.
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 07:48:33 AMMy plan is to just reveal everything, including all of the messages between us. Once we've revealed your claim is fake, there is no point in hiding anything anymore (remember, it is likely lylo).
Quote from: Toby on October 25, 2023, 08:23:23 AMFYI the fact that specs hasn't almost instantly turned on you is major sus

To specs THC is the real seer with a real red seering on you, and specs was already sus of you before

Why is he suddenly co operating with you

And what makes you trust him ?


Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 08:42:54 AMtown!Specs hasn't turned on me yet because we have been trying to fish out another counterclaim.

To Specs, the real seer is either THC, Poet or A#. Why he seems disbelieving of THC atm, idk.

He also isn't suddenly cooperating with me. This may seem so, but we've sent quite a lot of messages back and forth during the night phase to set this plan up. To Specs, there is not a lot of benifit for wolf!Davy to set up this plan in the first place, so I feel like he has been cooperating with me from the moment I suggested he sacrifices himself.

I think he is town because 1) he almost immediately trusted my plan (he just had a few reservations that we addressed together). The optimal play for wolf!Specs is to not go along with my plan. I would be unable to wolf read him for that, because he may have been the actual seer or a lantern holder, in both of those cases not going along would be better as well. He could even pretend to agree with my plan, then wolf me and not follow through.

2) More importantly, wolf!Specs is partners with wolf!THC. There were more than 12 hours between me suggesting the plan and THC counterclaiming, so Specs would have ample opportunity to tell his partners not to counterclaim him, especially not with a red seering on me. The fact that THC did counterclaim with a red seering on me would mean that a wolf duo of Specs and THC just sacrificed a wolf for no reason while giving the real seer the opportunity to counterclaim basically unopposed.
[close]
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

davy

tl;dr go read my 6 assertions at least (but preferably the entire two reveal posts).

Also, nice to see my reveal post made the new page.
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

Toby

I can confirm the above is true

THC is a wolf

ThatHiddenCharacter

Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 01:26:14 PMOf course, THC will say the exact opposite.
Funnily enough, no. I think if either of us get lynched Town loses. I made a total risk play pretending to be seer under the assumption that the real seer was dead and no one knew. I was hoping to accidentally get a wolf lynched by getting a good roll on a 50/50. I even told math about my plan.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on October 24, 2023, 11:31:50 PMBtw, I'm not actually the seer. I'm just a regular human. I'm taking a big risk for hopefully a big reward. I'm hoping that either davy gets lynched and my 50/50 shot on him was right or more ideally Specs claims to have seered me red last night. If that's the case, then I know he's fake-claiming seer. As of now, he could be the actual seer and just made a bad play, so I don't want to lynch him yet. I'm telling you all this because I trust you. Even if that may be dumb.
Like I said, I'm a wildcard. I'm pretty sure I can't convince any of you that I'm human at this point, though, sooooo gg. I gambled and lost.
Discord server (We have continental breakfast): https://discord.gg/ZuFJBF4

Jointers Discord server (We have continental music):
https://discord.gg/ehHWckpTzn

Ko-fi page (I have continental continents):
https://ko-fi.com/thathiddencharacter

SpecsFlyer17

I can also confirm that davy's story checks out. I am not the seer.
Current Breathing Mode: MANUAL

threalmathguy

Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 01:26:14 PM- Toby, BDS and Xiao were the lantern holders last phase.
    - After Specs fake claim, BDS claimed in PM to Toby. This explains why he didn't counterclaim Specs in the topic, and why I was wrong for assuming that he wasn't the seer.
    - BDS was seered by the lanterns, which confirmed that he was blue, so both Toby and Xiao should know this.

    5) Xiao has to confirm if he lantern seered BDS blue. If he does, he knows THC is lying and he should join us in lynching him. If he doesn't, he is lying and is actually THC's wolf partner.
   
Xiao, can you confirm? And if so, why did you disregard THC's seer claim after this reveal?

davy

Kinda dissapointed with the amount of activity after my reveal, but oh well.

Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on October 25, 2023, 03:03:18 PMFunnily enough, no. I think if either of us get lynched Town loses. I made a total risk play pretending to be seer under the assumption that the real seer was dead and no one knew. I was hoping to accidentally get a wolf lynched by getting a good roll on a 50/50. I even told math about my plan.
Like I said, I'm a wildcard. I'm pretty sure I can't convince any of you that I'm human at this point, though, sooooo gg. I gambled and lost.

Why back down now?



Specs, why did you disbelieve THC's seer claim (calling him "the real" seer in your PM to me) when he was the only one to have counterclaimed you?



math, please provide all PMs between you and THC this game. We need all the information we can get on today's lynch.



Xiao, please confirm the n2 lantern seering
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

XiaoMigros

Quote from: threalmathguy on October 25, 2023, 05:46:01 PMXiao, can you confirm? And if so, why did you disregard THC's seer claim after this reveal?
yes, I can confirm. not sure what you mean by the second part

davy

So knowing THC's seering on me was bogus, why did you suggest voting for me at the start of d2?
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

XiaoMigros

both you and specs claims were fake. i thought human!thc might be trying to hide the identity of the real seer (which people thought was specs), or this was a coordinated plan between thc, you, and specs, to lure out the real seer. toby can hopefully provide the message where i shared that with him

davy

Okay, then Toby, I request you post all your PMs since last night phase as well (including those with BDS for the lantern seering).
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow
[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game

SpecsFlyer17

Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 10:20:07 PMSpecs, why did you disbelieve THC's seer claim (calling him "the real" seer in your PM to me) when he was the only one to have counterclaimed you?


Not a full disbelieve at the time, but enough suspicion to earn quotation marks. Firstly, we were still waiting and/or expecting additional counter claims. Secondly, since I was talking to you, I knew you wouldn't believe it because he called you red.
Current Breathing Mode: MANUAL

SpecsFlyer17

I won't deny I still had suspicions about while going through with the plan. wolf!davy could have set this up in an attempt to draw out the real seer for a night kill, as well as to gain credibility and potentially frame people who were telling the truth but contradicted his story. I decided to play along because I genuinely thought davy's plan had the town's interest in mind- get me killed N2 so I wouldn't be lynched D2, try to uncover truths about the real seer for information on D2, etc. However, seer!THC seering davy red would potentially confirm those poor intention suspicions, but the events involving BDS proved otherwise.

To get things straight, Toby and Xiao both confirmed that BDS was seer'd blue, which hurt THCs seer claim. The only iteration here that wolf-aligns with these confirmations is wolf!davy, wolf!Xiao, and masterwolf!Toby; as part of some sub-plan to frame any seer that came forward.

I don't believe this to be the case, but I would like to see the PMs involving BDS.
Current Breathing Mode: MANUAL

XiaoMigros

I'd be happy to provide the exchanges amongst the lantern holder circle and between toby and I, if people are interested