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Started by TheZeldaPianist275, October 19, 2023, 05:40:24 PM
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 02:47:18 PMSo you can either claim a green, a red or a purple seering. Red won't do, because you'd've gone after your seer target last day phase rather than me. A purple seering on Oricorio falls through if he is a wolf rather than the Strange Man, a purple seering on anyone else falls through if Oricorio isn't a wolf.So that leaves a green seering. A green seering on Toby or A# won't do, because you wouldn't risk getting wolf'd to get information out that town already knows. Green seering on Oricorio won't do because he's likely the Strange Man or a wolf. Green seering n1 on me won't do because you wouldn't have pushed for me.That leaves math, xiao, bds, thc and poet. Out of these five, there are likely 2 reds. If you call a green seering on either of these (40% chance with random seering) the wolves realise that you are lying and the plan falls through. thc and poet have been inactive, so they can fall either way, xiao is notoriously hard to read so I've heard, and BDS tops a bunch of suspicion list. Imo, math is just the safest bet. But you can pick any other of the four players if you think they are unlikely to be red or if you think it makes justifying your day 1 actions easier.So yeah, my suggestion is n1 math green, n2 davy green
Quote from: NocturneOfShadow[davy]'s in a way different time zone so basically he pops in at like 2 AM and posts 500 words and wins the game
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 08:41:21 AMHey Specs, I'd like to pitch an idea to you:If Oricorio was indeed the Strange Man, next day phase is Lylo. You are currently the player most likely to get lynched next day phase considering you were already nearly voted out last day phase, so if you are human, I'd rather see you get wolf'd this phase then any other player.Additionally, I'd really like the seer to survive this phase (assuming A# wasn't the seer) so here is what I am thinking:Shortly before the end of the phase (somewhere between 15 and 5 minutes before the phase change) you claim seer with a green seering on someone (my preference would be mathguy). You can reason this that you want to make sure town learns of your seering result in case you get wolf'd that night phase. At the same time, you can shoot a message to Toby telling him that this is a fake claim. This should be no problem if he is the Master Wolf, since he should be sleeping at that point (because timezones).The idea is that you do this late enough to be believable, but early enough that the wolves still have a chance to change their wolfing to you. That way, the real seer will survive and we don't waste a lynch on you.If the wolves opt not to wolf you, you should reveal a green seering on me (it'll make sense that you would seer me after last day phase) and then someone should ask for counterclaims (I will if no one else does). If no-one counterclaims you, that means A# was the seer. If you get only 1 counterclaim, that player is most likely the true seer (barring the 1/6 that A# was the true seer). Wolves are not likely to counterclaim if there is already two players claiming seer, so a third seer claim, if that even happpens, is more likely to be the true seer than the second seer claim.Then after the counterclaims have come in, you can retract your claim, saying that it was a ploy and that both Toby and I can back you up.Thoughts?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 09:50:14 AMJust getting off work, I'll read over this and get back to you in a minute.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 11:20:58 AMI guess my only question is don't we want the seer real seer to remain anonymous? This will draw out the real seer, which would make a potential N3 wolfing target. Is that tomorrow's problem?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 11:25:01 AMAnd what if the wolves don't go for me tonight if I claim? 15 minutes isn't a lot of time, and there's no real reason for them be checking the forums at the last minute. What do you think?
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 11:28:09 AMI want the real seer to claim day 2 regardless because we may just lose the game next day phase and I want the seer to have claimed before the game ends (nb. am on mobile rn)
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 11:33:19 AMIve already addressed that, but to recap: if you live, we have a better chance of finding the real seer than if we dont do this plan.Butif you think you have a better chance of dying if you claim a little earlier, go right ahead.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 12:58:57 PMA few more questions- any particular reason you want Math seer'd? Im cool with it, just curious why he was your recommendation. Seering you makes sense given how suspicious I was of you last day phase. And to confirm, N1 seer'd Math green, and N2 (if I don't get killed) seer's you green?
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 02:29:43 PMI think I'll claim a little earlier to give the wolves more time to react. I'd rather error on the side of getting wolfed and then freeing up D2 lynching for a wolf, rather than have me lynched and cost us the game.
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 02:51:55 PMSure it's your call. Just be aware that claiming early risks:1) getting counterclaimed by the real seer before the phase ends, and the wolves killing them n22) giving the wolves enough time to realise you are fake and you not getting wolf'd n2.3) having a shakier claim (the closer you are to phase end, the more believable it is), also ending up with wolves realising you are fake and you not getting wolf'd.And finally, don't forget to inform Toby (this preferably as close to phase end as possible). We need to have an extra player backing up that your claim was fake.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 24, 2023, 04:10:58 PMChecks out. I'll probably stick with math, as I was pretty high on him D1. Someone (Oricorio, I think) pointed out that he was the only person I had any significant town lean on at one point.Points taken about claiming early. Ill try to balance things out.Final question, why did you pick Toby for the proof? Not criticizing, just trying to analyze what's going on here.
Quote from: davy on October 24, 2023, 11:10:37 PMHey Toby, Specs should by now have informed you that his claim was fake and an attempt to get wolf'd. We co-ordinated this together. I will post the messages later after poet has posted.THC's seer claim is also fake. I know that because I am green, so his red seering on me is a lie. Of course, from your perspective you can't be sure about this, but I'm giving you this info from my perspective.Since Xiao, BDS, math and I have already posted after Specs claim and didn't counterclaim, I believe all of them are not the seer. You have been seered green, so you can't be the seer either. That means either A# or Poet has to be the seer from my perspective. If Poet counterclaims seer, they are the true seer. If not, A# is the true seer, meaning we unfortunately already lost the seer n1.
Quote from: Toby on October 25, 2023, 03:56:11 AMHey from my view rn you're the most trusted townThe real seer was BDS, he claimed to me in PM after Specs claim, and this was also verified as we had used our lanterns to seer himThe other lantern holder, Xiao also knows BDS was blue, which should tell Xiao that both Specs and THC's claims are false, however Xiao has suggested since in topic to either lynch Specs or (going by THCs red result) you - but not THC. Bds said he had a green seeing result on XiaoI'm wondering if Xiao is the green wolf and THC could be normal wolf but need to see how it plays out furtherBefore revealing THC is a fake claim I'd like to see it play out a bit longer and see if we can deduce more wolvesId prefer you didn't share this with anyone, I'd say Specs is likely human now but I'd still prefer this not shared with him
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 25, 2023, 04:50:20 AMIt appears we pulled out "the real" seer, THC. Do you have a timeline in mind of going public with your plan and my fake claim? Assuming Toby doesn't say anything. Waiting a bit longer may pull out a third seer claim, too. What do you think?
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 06:53:46 AMCool. I'd say you are the most trusted town from my view as well. With THC being a confirmed wolf from my perspective, there's no reason why you'd throw your partner under the bus by revealing BDS as the real seer to me.I think you should push Xiao to reveal BDS was blue. It forces him to either confirm he's a wolf by refusing, or exposing THC as a liar.Xiao master wolf and THC normal wolf makes sense to me. Any of the other three people could be the final wolf, but I'd say poet is more likely than either specs or mathguy.I get what you mean, but I also don't want to make it too long. BDS being the seer is almost too convenient for us, and THC will try to convince town that we are making this up and that we are actually the wolf pair, and we are going to need to have enough time to convince the rest of town that THC is lying. Atm I'm planning on revealing everything right before I go to sleep, to ensure we'll have more than 24 hours with all info on the table.I'll refrain from sharing this for now, but I will add you to the messages with Specs, considering him and I both know you know the claim is fake.
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 07:00:26 AMAdded Toby since he already knows your claim is fake.Quotation marks around the real indeed. To me, it is certain that he is a wolf, as I am a human and no human is seered red in this game. My plan is to reveal your claim was fake before I go to sleep tonight. That ensures we have more than 24 hours to convince everyone to vote for THC. Still hoping to see a seer counterclaim from Poet, otherwise A# must have been the seer.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 25, 2023, 07:38:24 AMI'm curious why he even bothered claiming seer though? He wants you dead? That could wait until N3, and there wasn't a whole lot of suspicion around him before this.
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 07:45:57 AMIt is a very bold move indeed, and I applaud him for it. But consider his position: The seer has just claimed with a green result on math. There is also a green result on Toby, with two more seering results comming in (one from the lanterns and another one from you). Even if all of those results are green, that means that of 7 remaining players 4 are green, one is the seer, and the other two are red. Assuming THC is a red wolf, not counterclaiming you has a very high chance of exposing him as one.Also, assuming Oricorio isn't his partner, there is no waiting until N3, killing me (or any human for that matter) D2 wins the game for the wolves.
Quote from: SpecsFlyer17 on October 25, 2023, 07:46:50 AMAlso, do you think it would be beneficial going public with "I claimed with 20ish minutes remaining so the wolves had a chance to see and take me out; if I was on the table to be lynched D2, Id rather be taken out N2 to allow D2s lynch to be focused on a wolf"? Reason I ask, is there seems to be some uncertainty regarding my timing being too early, but that was the point.
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 07:48:33 AMMy plan is to just reveal everything, including all of the messages between us. Once we've revealed your claim is fake, there is no point in hiding anything anymore (remember, it is likely lylo).
Quote from: Toby on October 25, 2023, 08:23:23 AMFYI the fact that specs hasn't almost instantly turned on you is major susTo specs THC is the real seer with a real red seering on you, and specs was already sus of you beforeWhy is he suddenly co operating with you And what makes you trust him ?
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 08:42:54 AMtown!Specs hasn't turned on me yet because we have been trying to fish out another counterclaim.To Specs, the real seer is either THC, Poet or A#. Why he seems disbelieving of THC atm, idk.He also isn't suddenly cooperating with me. This may seem so, but we've sent quite a lot of messages back and forth during the night phase to set this plan up. To Specs, there is not a lot of benifit for wolf!Davy to set up this plan in the first place, so I feel like he has been cooperating with me from the moment I suggested he sacrifices himself.I think he is town because 1) he almost immediately trusted my plan (he just had a few reservations that we addressed together). The optimal play for wolf!Specs is to not go along with my plan. I would be unable to wolf read him for that, because he may have been the actual seer or a lantern holder, in both of those cases not going along would be better as well. He could even pretend to agree with my plan, then wolf me and not follow through.2) More importantly, wolf!Specs is partners with wolf!THC. There were more than 12 hours between me suggesting the plan and THC counterclaiming, so Specs would have ample opportunity to tell his partners not to counterclaim him, especially not with a red seering on me. The fact that THC did counterclaim with a red seering on me would mean that a wolf duo of Specs and THC just sacrificed a wolf for no reason while giving the real seer the opportunity to counterclaim basically unopposed.
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 01:26:14 PMOf course, THC will say the exact opposite.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on October 24, 2023, 11:31:50 PMBtw, I'm not actually the seer. I'm just a regular human. I'm taking a big risk for hopefully a big reward. I'm hoping that either davy gets lynched and my 50/50 shot on him was right or more ideally Specs claims to have seered me red last night. If that's the case, then I know he's fake-claiming seer. As of now, he could be the actual seer and just made a bad play, so I don't want to lynch him yet. I'm telling you all this because I trust you. Even if that may be dumb.
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 01:26:14 PM- Toby, BDS and Xiao were the lantern holders last phase. - After Specs fake claim, BDS claimed in PM to Toby. This explains why he didn't counterclaim Specs in the topic, and why I was wrong for assuming that he wasn't the seer. - BDS was seered by the lanterns, which confirmed that he was blue, so both Toby and Xiao should know this. 5) Xiao has to confirm if he lantern seered BDS blue. If he does, he knows THC is lying and he should join us in lynching him. If he doesn't, he is lying and is actually THC's wolf partner.
Quote from: ThatHiddenCharacter on October 25, 2023, 03:03:18 PMFunnily enough, no. I think if either of us get lynched Town loses. I made a total risk play pretending to be seer under the assumption that the real seer was dead and no one knew. I was hoping to accidentally get a wolf lynched by getting a good roll on a 50/50. I even told math about my plan.Like I said, I'm a wildcard. I'm pretty sure I can't convince any of you that I'm human at this point, though, sooooo gg. I gambled and lost.
Quote from: threalmathguy on October 25, 2023, 05:46:01 PMXiao, can you confirm? And if so, why did you disregard THC's seer claim after this reveal?
Quote from: davy on October 25, 2023, 10:20:07 PMSpecs, why did you disbelieve THC's seer claim (calling him "the real" seer in your PM to me) when he was the only one to have counterclaimed you?
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