TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm just more curious why you would exempt other old codgers such as myself, Toby, and Oricorio (and N1P2? Idk) from that calculation.

I'd say you and Toby would also apply but to a lesser extent (as I said if Davy were also playing I'd apply to to him as well). I feel like I've probably mentioned that in a prior revival game.

Toby did quick to criticize you claiming you got wolf-seer'd or claiming you are the miller. I don't really see wolf!Toby being that aggressive to criticize if it were true; that's too obvious.

Yeah, I'm not sure what I'd get out of it if I were a wolf, so it'd be a strange thing for me to insist upon as a wolf.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Voting Specs for the time being, for a few reasons.

1. In the thread in response to Toby's suggested plan, he didn't have much issue with the loss of the two human specials, since their powers can be used after death. However, in PMs, he started pushing back a little more against the idea, stating that the wolves could easily cause chaos with it. This doesn't read to me like a gradual shift in opinion, more like someone simulating human logic in individual conversations, but not maintaining a natural flow of deliberation/deduction. I did this in Nothing Special 2 as a wolf and drew way too much attention to myself because of it.

2.He responded immediately to TWG Waluigi showing up in the thread. If we're right that Waluigi is the wolf-aligned alt, I think most people would expect the wolf player to distance himself from the alt—maybe even to play time zone games. Responding immediately seems like it could well be a reverse psychology play, though I admit this is nowhere near conclusive on its own.

3. Saying something like "waaaaaaa" is just 100% something Specs would do lol. Math can verify this if he would like, that's Specs' irl sense of humor to a T.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'd say you and Toby would also apply but to a lesser extent (as I said if Davy were also playing I'd apply to to him as well). I feel like I've probably mentioned that in a prior revival game.

I am not sure if this is what you're intending, but this really does just sound like "I am better at this game than the rest of the lobby", which I find pretty unseemly

[Toby]

I just don't see the manti rule having applied to BDS or be likely to apply to BDS over other veterans in this game such as TZP or myself

And a lot of the newer players also showed to have good grip on the game that I wouldnt say the gap is too far apart between anyone

[Nana1Popo2]

I have an interesting note.

Perhaps I'm overthinking things and this isnt the right direction, you all tell me.

I PM BDS to soft claim, especially after slight conversation begins to arise about N1 actions like claiming SL, etc...
We decide to wait until something happens (thus TWG Waluigi came forward and davy responded)

I claim SL publicly.

I get a PM from Specs suggesting that i ask for the CO to privately claim to me, to which i can work with them to prove their access to the alt account. Then if i talk publicly after that, is up to me.
I think its a fair idea, and was beginning to think the same way anyway.

I post suggesting just this, but without full detail of the plan using the CO to prove the TWG account.

Then Toby jumps on board with believing me, once almost everyone said they werent SL, only to say the same thing (which hadnt been mentioned publicly yet?), in regards to finding the alt account.
Specs agrees, now we are boarding the train that is this idea.


The first two PM's i get to claim roles are Toby, claiming human, and Specs, claiming green. Specs, specifically saying in PM "i'll bite on Toby's plan." While i thought, wasnt this along the lines of your plan to me before i posted?... albeit, i dont think i needed the rest of the town to claim to me, i just need CO, but thats different.

My question is unless they had been PM'ing, how did they just nearly have the same plan and each post about it with the confidence that they would so easily believe me?

Theres a lot of layers to TWG, i get it, but big brain plays are out of my realm haha. Targeting a returning player like THC seems legit. Targeting a seer on BDS as a returning player sounds very plausible. ( i don't want to get in a conversation of who has "more" game experience, I'm just observing)

What can we make from this? Unless coincidental and I'm gearing caught up in it? (Also, yes its a great plan that anyone could have thought of, but the fact that no one else did before them two and the coincidence that they messaged first is interesting. Thats what im looking at)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I am not sure if this is what you're intending, but this really does just sound like "I am better at this game than the rest of the lobby", which I find pretty unseemly

What I'm saying is that Davy and I being TWC inherently puts more of a target on our backs—that was also true when Bird, Mashi, and Verm were TWC and active players as well.

1. In the thread in response to Toby's suggested plan, he didn't have much issue with the loss of the two human specials, since their powers can be used after death. However, in PMs, he started pushing back a little more against the idea, stating that the wolves could easily cause chaos with it. This doesn't read to me like a gradual shift in opinion, more like someone simulating human logic in individual conversations, but not maintaining a natural flow of deliberation/deduction. I did this in Nothing Special 2 as a wolf and drew way too much attention to myself because of it.

This is interesting. Are you able to say any more about this?

3. Saying something like "waaaaaaa" is just 100% something Specs would do lol. Math can verify this if he would like, that's Specs' irl sense of humor to a T.

To be fair I think that's true of a lot of long-term NSMers as well. Even without checking Waluigi's posts from past games I feel like TWG Waluigi players have definitely done something like that before.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Voting Specs for the time being, for a few reasons.

This feels like a very deliberate framing.

1. In the thread in response to Toby's suggested plan, he didn't have much issue with the loss of the two human specials, since their powers can be used after death. However, in PMs, he started pushing back a little more against the idea, stating that the wolves could easily cause chaos with it. This doesn't read to me like a gradual shift in opinion, more like someone simulating human logic in individual conversations, but not maintaining a natural flow of deliberation/deduction. I did this in Nothing Special 2 as a wolf and drew way too much attention to myself because of it.

I feel like there's a lack of context.
My thread response about the two human specials still having powers while dead (post #51) was not really in response to Toby's plan, but more so about the game mechanics in general.
My PM to TZP was a direct reply to TZP asking about what I thought about Toby's plan, in which I stated that the wolves could cause some chaos with counterclaims if people were claiming SL and CO.

2.He responded immediately to TWG Waluigi showing up in the thread. If we're right that Waluigi is the wolf-aligned alt, I think most people would expect the wolf player to distance himself from the alt—maybe even to play time zone games. Responding immediately seems like it could well be a reverse psychology play, though I admit this is nowhere near conclusive on its own.

The WAAAA came at 7:06:33, and 29 seconds later, I posted at 7:07:02. I happened to be tuned in to see who was wolfed. 29 seconds to log out, log in, navigate to the thread and post? On a mobile device (I was at work)? Maybe if I intentionally speed-ran it, but I think that's a stretch to assume that's what happened, especially if it's predicated on a reverse psychology play. I don't even know if 29 seconds is enough time.

3. Saying something like "waaaaaaa" is just 100% something Specs would do lol. Math can verify this if he would like, that's Specs' irl sense of humor to a T.

Yeah, it's definitely something I would do. But you know that, and I can definitely see that as a tool for you to frame me. Plus I'm sure other people would say something similar as Waluigi.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I get a PM from Specs suggesting that i ask for the CO to privately claim to me, to which i can work with them to prove their access to the alt account. Then if i talk publicly after that, is up to me.
I think its a fair idea, and was beginning to think the same way anyway.

Specs, specifically saying in PM "i'll bite on Toby's plan." While i thought, wasnt this along the lines of your plan to me before i posted?... albeit, i dont think i needed the rest of the town to claim to me, i just need CO, but thats different.

This especially feels a bit weird. It could just be awkward wording on Specs' part, but I feel like human Specs would be more likely to say something like "given that Toby and my plans are in agreement." Possible unintentional buddying on Specs' part, or, perhaps, an attempt for wolf Specs to make it seem like he was buddying with Toby.

[SpecsFlyer17]

My plan (which was privately discussed with N1P2) was that he solicits the CO only to claim to him privately. Nothing about the entire community claiming.

Toby's plan was everyone privately claim to N1P2. That's why I said "I'll bite on Toby's plan" in my PM to him.

They're similar, but this feels like an over-analysis.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Suspicion List Mk. 1

S U S Z O N E —
- Toby: His insistence on getting the Sacrificial Lamb to claim with only a few hours left N1 was a bit strange. If it was a genuine push, it feels like it should've happened sooner—and if the thought just didn't cross his mind until then, it would've helped to mention that as well. Overall it felt like it was more to gain human credits but suggesting an idea which had little chance of coming to fruition under the circumstances, rather than actually trying to help the human team. His pushback over my suggestion that I'm either the miller or was seered by the wolves (which would explain why I wasn't the N1 wolfing) feels like distraction rather than a genuine push. The only issue with Toby being a wolf is that I don't think the Waluigi slip-up would've happened with Toby on the wolf team. Unless his partner just completely jumped the gun of their own volition (which, again, I'm not sure would've happened on Toby's watch), a wolf team with Toby on it would've likely had their plan to reveal their seering results laid out ahead of time. At the very least, I don't think Toby would've approved his partner of having free reign on Waluigi without checking in with Toby first. And I don't think Toby would've made the slip up himself.

L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- XiaoMigros: Hasn't been posting much at all, even for Xiao standards. Paranoid speculation time: Xiao saw my comment last game about me developing a "Human Xiao Radar" and has been avoiding posting on the off-chance the opposite is also true. A player I could conceivably see being on a wolf team that made the Waluigi slip.
- TheZeldaPianist275: I think TZP is also in the zone of players who, if on the wolf team, could have conceivably led to the Waluigi slip—if not TZP himself, it's possible that TZP didn't pick on the fact that the human seer seers blue players as green and subsequently failed to inform his partner of this fact as well.
- threalmathguy: Hasn't posted enough to get a good lean on yet (but solely based on the content of those posts it's still fairly neutral). Based on the timing of his posts (one post early in the game, then no more until fairly recently) it's possible that either he made the Waluigi slip (made posts as Waluigi then deliberately dipped out to avoid suspicion), or wasn't around to prevent his partner from making the Waluigi slip.
- SpecsFlyer17: I originally had Specs in the category below (imo, his posts have been fairly consistent with his recent human behavior, especially last game), but given the recent posts by TZP and N1P2 I feel like he should be under more scrutiny. In his defense, the issues those two brought up could be mostly down to awkward wording, which feels like something Specs has caught suspicion for in past games as well. Also in his defense, Specs pointed out very early that he thought it was possible TWG Waluigi was the wolf due to proximity of Waluigi's first post to the wolfing, which I really don't feel would be something that would be in wolf Specs' interest to say out loud.

E V E N L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- Oricorio: Given that Oricorio has only played in Lantern Keeper Redux so far, I can't say for certain what wolf Oricorio vs. human Oricorio is like (especially in the context of a NSMTWG game), but at the very least, his behavior is markedly different from that game.

D E A D Z O N E —
- ThatHiddenCharacter: He is, indeed, dead.

Cool Kids Club —
- Nana1Popo2: Bar paranoid speculation, probably human.
- BlackDragonSlayer: Bar paranoid speculation, probably human.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

inb4 someone says "you're suspicious of too many players" (I hope to avoid a repeat of last game)

As I mentioned in the post itself, my initial take on the suspicion list (which I started writing after this post) had Specs in the green category just above Oricorio. Given recent developments I feel that's no longer an appropriate placement. However, during that same stretch of time I feel like there hasn't been enough/anything from Xiao, TZP, and Math to change their positions.

Overall, at the current moment I'd say I'd be ok with a lynch of any of Toby, Xiao, TZP, and Math. Given phases end at 10am I will likely place a "final" vote (if I change it at all) before I go to bed tonight.

[Oricorio]

Yeah, I still don't like "you're suspicious of too many players" as an accusation. If anything, it's more suspicious to be suspicious of too few, as that can indicate a wolf locked in a world.

Anyway, I'm back. I believe N1P for now, to think otherwise would mean a super convoluted gambit is in play, then again I'm just getting used to OC again. That does limit the possibilities of who Waluigi is, though.

Is math more active as town? They are doing almost nothing here, and same with my precious games with him where he was a wolf. Granted, those were the only games

[Oricorio]

I can see why Toby was confused over BDS's insistence that they were seered, I found that odd too and I don't think this in and of itself is indicative of Toby's alignment. Still, THC being selected is odd, but wolves may have either a. considered THC a wild card that they didn't want to deal with or b. make the oddest choice possible to draw attention away from a more active player, either to frame them as a wolf or because they themselves are a wolf.

[Oricorio]

On one hand, I like that TZP is trying to push the game forward by being the first to post a substantive case. On the other hand, would Specs be the kind of player to make that slip? He has been posting almost exclusively mechanical discussion, granted if the game I hosted is any indication he does that as town too

[Oricorio]

E V E N L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- Oricorio: Given that Oricorio has only played in Lantern Keeper Redux so far, I can't say for certain what wolf Oricorio vs. human Oricorio is like (especially in the context of a NSMTWG game), but at the very least, his behavior is markedly different from that game.

I could be pushing for information really hard like in that game, but the main reason why I'm not is I 1k posted in my last game and would like a calmer game as a palette cleanser. Although, given that most players seem to not have gotten far in terms of pushing suspicions, maybe I should be acting like that