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Started by spitllama, September 05, 2012, 07:15:02 PM

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mikey

anyone else slightly worried by the increasing popularity of Donald trump?
unmotivated

Altissimo

#1052
The final contest is going to be him versus somebody, probably Clinton. But I think that there's enough Republicans who hate him enough to support Clinton or Sanders instead, in addition to the fact that very few if any registered Democrats are going to be voting for him (regardless of whether Clinton or Sanders wins), that I don't know that he has any shot at winning the presidency over Clinton or Sanders.

RealClearPolitics suggests that Clinton wins by an average of 6.5 points in general election, and Sanders by an even larger margin. Trump could maybe win if literally every Trump supporter in the US actually turned out to vote and enough Democrats were disillusioned by the choice of the Democratic nominee to not vote, but I'm not so sure about that, especially if this article is right that a whopping 20% of Republicans would support Hillary in the event of a (now guaranteed) Trump nomination.

I guess a factor that could weaken this, in addition to the aforementioned issue of disillusioned Democrats not coming out to vote/Trump supporters mobilizing greatly, would be if there are any more damning things about the Clinton email business. But, simultaneously, Trump's not free from media scrutiny either - the whole Trump University thing - so who knows?

Edit: It's kinda funny the way the nominees are polling. Sanders trails behind Hillary, but he stands more of a chance to beat any of the former Republican nominees (speaking Cruz, Kasich, Trump) in general election than Hillary: 13.4 points against Trump versus Hillary's 6.5; 13.0 against Cruz versus Hillary's 5.4; winning against Kasich versus losing to Kasich. And simultaneously, Kasich trailed both Cruz and Trump, but was also the party's best bet to defeat Clinton and come close to defeating Sanders. Funny how that works, isn't it?

Yug_Guy

Well, I really hate to be the one to say this, but Cruz dropped out last night, and it looks like Kasich is dropping out as well:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/04/politics/john-kasich-drops-out/
Meaning that unless something really crazy happens at the RNC, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee.

Spoiler

WELP, that's it folks, I think I'm done here. Let me know when it's all over.
[close]

mikey

gg GOP
Quote from: Altissimo on May 04, 2016, 01:30:08 PMEdit: It's kinda funny the way the nominees are polling. Sanders trails behind Hillary, but he stands more of a chance to beat any of the former Republican nominees (speaking Cruz, Kasich, Trump) in general election than Hillary: 13.4 points against Trump versus Hillary's 6.5; 13.0 against Cruz versus Hillary's 5.4; winning against Kasich versus losing to Kasich. And simultaneously, Kasich trailed both Cruz and Trump, but was also the party's best bet to defeat Clinton and come close to defeating Sanders. Funny how that works, isn't it?
the hipsters on my facebook are suggesting sabotage
unmotivated

Altissimo

Quote from: NocturneOfShadow on May 04, 2016, 02:22:28 PMthe hipsters on my facebook are suggesting sabotage
how even are they suggesting this

mikey

"when everyone you know feeling the Bern but Hillary still winning"
unmotivated

Altissimo

#1057
[snip]

Pianist Da Sootopolis

Unfortunately, Hillary is probably going to be the nominee in terms of pledged delegates. Bernie would have to win over 60% of the remaining delegates to secure it via pledged delegates (and not even counting superdelegates, which still might stick with Clinton to prevent an anti establishment candidate).
The more likely situation that has Bernie winning, unfortunately, is Hillary being indicted. Since Obama was bipartisan as to put a staunch Republican at the head of the FBI, with 12 agents investigating her actions in Libya, there's a good chance she might get indicted, either in the primary season or the general election.
what is shitpost

Ruto

Eh don't get my hopes up, I saw that HuffPo article too. I see people trying to be neutral in terms of the Democratic candidates a lot, but I still can't stand the slogans being tossed around with Clinton's followers. I don't know if her campaign is the one that made them up, but they were things like "it's her turn" and "here comes #45" under her picture. That sounds sooo entitled. Also I don't agree with some of her stances on things and don't really believe she's that honest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/24/magazine/how-hillary-clinton-became-a-hawk.html (hope that link works)

I was talking politics with my professor the other day, who admitted she voted for Clinton based on her performance as senator of NY "back when you were in grade school so you probably don't remember." Then she told me the Scottish chemistry professor was "feelin' the Bern" and can't wait to vote for Sanders in the NJ primary. Then I also found out who voted for Trump in my school :O


I seem to be missing a piece of my ear.

BlackDragonSlayer

Quote from: Altissimo on May 04, 2016, 01:30:08 PMI'm not so sure about that, especially if this article is right that a whopping 20% of Republicans would support Hillary in the event of a (now guaranteed) Trump nomination.
Right now, I'm not really convinced that a lot of Republicans would be willing to vote Democrat, especially with someone like Hillary Clinton; the same with the majority of current Bernie Sanders supporters (since it would be kind of contradictory with the reason they're probably voting for Sanders in the first place).
And the moral of the story: Quit while you're a head.

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FireArrow

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on May 05, 2016, 12:17:20 AMRight now, I'm not really convinced that a lot of Republicans would be willing to vote Democrat, especially with someone like Hillary Clinton; the same with the majority of current Bernie Sanders supporters (since it would be kind of contradictory with the reason they're probably voting for Sanders in the first place).

Pardon my bluntness, but anyone that votes Hillary over Trump is dumb. Yes, she has a shady past, is dishonest, and is likely to not get anything done once put it office. However, the country isn't gonna crumble into ruins with her in office - she's too standard of a polititian. Trump is gonna undo any progress we've made on civil rights, destroy all our foregin relations, etc. etc. Even voting for him becuase "well atleast he's more conservative than Hillary" is just blidnly following labels, because his policies are hardly conservative and are better described as "trump."

Sander supporters don't like hillary much either, but they'd still vote her over trump because in what world is voting for him a good idea? This is of course ignoring my suspicoun that Trump is actually a genius democrat, because I can't believe someone that succesful can be that... ugh.
Quote from: Dudeman on January 23, 2017, 05:35:59 PM
straight from the department of redundancy department

Altissimo

Quote from: FireArrow on May 05, 2016, 01:27:16 AMPardon my bluntness, but anyone that votes Hillary over Trump is dumb.

Do you mean "Trump over Hillary"?

Ruto

I don't want Trump in office, but I still kind of doubt one person can do so much damage xD If his running mate is equally stupid, I think that impeaching Trump won't help this situation either.

Backup plans:

1) Go on vacation for 4 years in this other country I can legally reside in
2) You can guess what this one is if it doesn't involve Canada

I seem to be missing a piece of my ear.

mikey

Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on May 05, 2016, 12:17:20 AMRight now, I'm not really convinced that a lot of Republicans would be willing to vote Democrat, especially with someone like Hillary Clinton; the same with the majority of current Bernie Sanders supporters (since it would be kind of contradictory with the reason they're probably voting for Sanders in the first place).
actual conservatives would rather vote democrat than trump
unmotivated