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Started by Kaiveran, September 21, 2023, 10:52:01 PM
Quote from: davy on September 22, 2023, 01:30:51 PMBoth town and assassin can win night one. Obviously not going to post the requirements for an assassin night 1 win, they can figure that out themselves.Okay, we are comparing four things, so it's important to know what we are comparing against. Bold is what I think is favored.Spoilered to mitigate wallpostEarly town:early wolfEarly town:late wolfEarly town:late townLate town:early wolfLate town:late wolfEarly wolf:late wolfLate wins are more likely than early wins, I feel that much should be obvious.Early town only needs two correct kills whereas early wolf needs three. Favored for early town.Late wolf needs to keep two players alive and kill one, but has two chances to kill that one. I feel like this is favored for late town, but it's closer than early v early.So all in all I will cede that getting to the late game improves the assassins chances of winning by more than the increase from town. So humans are slightly hurt from losing a towny, but it only feels very slightly to me. Still think it's worth going for my strategy, but it does seem less worth it now.[close]
QuoteNot quite, the town win con is considerably more favorable than in a normal man hunt as the one kill needed to be made can be made on two players. This changes the math by a significant enough amount that I trust the humans more than the assassin in that scenario.
Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 22, 2023, 02:07:31 PMthis convo is too much to digest rn ill think qbt it tmrw
Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 22, 2023, 02:13:56 PMleaning BDS tho
Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 08:21:56 AMposting to say I'm awake and will catch up with all these posts soon
Quote from: A# Minor on September 22, 2023, 01:58:42 PM
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 02:53:01 PMthis is not a satisfactory response
Quote from: Waddle Bro on July 14, 2013, 01:48:09 PMme tzpyou tarzan
Quote from: davy on September 21, 2023, 11:56:00 PMPhew, glad to see I'm not an assassin. Would really suck to die because ones corresponding ward gets randomly lynched or assassinated or if one assassin gets assassinated by the other one.Not much else to say at the moment as work is going to start soon, but I'll check in again during my lunch break.
Quote from: Toby on September 22, 2023, 03:07:13 PMthats my thoughts too
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 02:48:51 PM Mind sharing your reasoning with everyone else?
Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 22, 2023, 03:11:43 PM- Immediately attacking the strategy of not defending oneself when accused
Quote- being aggressive (so you can use this play style to your defense later), seems too out of the playbook
Quote from: XiaoMigros on September 22, 2023, 03:22:02 PMok I vote davy
Quote from: BlackDragonSlayer on September 22, 2023, 02:53:01 PMAny progress?
Quotethis is not a satisfactory response
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 02:57:50 PMFrom now on this play shall be known as "breakfast analysis". I have spoken.
Quote from: TheZeldaPianist275 on September 22, 2023, 03:13:57 PMTo sum up the discussions for new players:1) Should the hot targets claim? The pro of claiming is that it removes them as an accidental lynch option, the con is that it opens them up to potential assassin attack. Consensus right now seems to be that hot targets shouldn't claim.2) Should someone who got a normal human PM defend himself if placed on the chopping block? Pro of self-defense is that, if successful, it might redirect the lynch to an assassin, the con is that lynching one of these humans could very well be beneficial for the humans (if it's a ward), or at least not badly harmful (if it's a regular townie).Feel free to add if I missed anything.
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