TWG XCII: Seeriously!

[daj]

Seer'd BDS! He came back blue.

I'm um, not the fool haha. Really. There's no reason not to claim as the fool (or at least, co-ordinate such that one fool reveals his role) if people can guard you. I really am a human ahaha

Two scenarios:
1. I am the drunken seer: Dudeman is a wolf and BDS is a fool
2. I am the stoned seer: Dudeman is possibly really the true seer and BDS is a wolf

I'm ready to eliminate the option that I'm the true seer because...well, Dudeman came out orange. And he seems to be...not orange.

BDS for now, willing to swap things a bit if I can be convinced otherwise~

[Olimar12345]

^Eh there is technically a possibility that you could be a fool, and that you claimed human to appear suspicious in order to try to get yourself lynched as a wolf, but who's thinking that far into these things? xD

I still think that lynching BDS is a bad move in the long run. Next phase we run the real risk of accidentally killing the second fool (if the wolves don't accidentally do that first) and ending the game non-victoriously. I will, however concede that BDS is probably the safest lynch candidate at the moment. If we assume that both dead players are humans (worst case scenario) then the ratio of wolves to humans is closing in (4-2), and we can't afford to misfire this round. BDS. In some sense, I hope that BDS is really a wolf, since I would much rather deal with the issue of restarting our seer confirmations rather than have two wolves still alive...

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Guys, I am so sorry.  I'm still on the loozer pile.  I have no idea how I managed to vote for a guard but forget about my seering power. 

I am indeed blue.  I'm glad you seer'd me last night, Dudeman.

[Dudeman]

Guys, I am so sorry.  I'm still on the loozer pile.  I have no idea how I managed to vote for a guard but forget about my seering power. 

I am indeed blue.  I'm glad you seer'd me last night, Dudeman.

I mean, at least you apologized, but that looks extremely bad for you. And I'd be inclined to start thinking that you're a wolf, but I seer'd you blue and I also seer'd BDS orange so I don't think there's any other options...

[daj]

Hmm i just realised my whole reasoning wasn't right. Fools aren't playing too openly and Dudeman is probably the drunk wolf shaman. In so TZP is playing a really weird fool game, so welp.

Reasoning coming later, cuz i need to do work and stuff ahaha

[FireArrow]

1. Dudeman - BDS, TZP
2. Olimar12345 - BDS, Daj
3. Maelstrom - BDS, rip
4. Dude - Noc, TBA
5. NocturneOfShadow - BDS, rip
6. TheZeldaPianist275 - :c, >:c
7. Shadowkirby - :c, TBA
8. BlackDragonSlayer - le fool
9. dajwxp - BDS, Dudeman
10. FireArrow - BDS, TZP

[FireArrow]

1. It's impossible for three seers to all seer BDS blue and daj saw dudeman as a wolf.
One of these people is straight up lying: FireArrow, Olimar, Daj
Given that I'm the gullible seer and both olimar and daj are presumably the drunken seer, this leave it between Olimar and Daj.

2. Dude cannot be the Gullible seer so if both dudeman and dude are human, then noc was not.

I could keep going, but basically everything is a bunch of if-this-than-that and we don't have enough information to determine anything. If dude and shadowkirby come by with results we might be in a good spot. If not than we have to hope that noc was a wolf otherwise lose to inactivity.

[Olimar12345]

1. It's impossible for three seers to all seer BDS blue

Nope:

2. Drunken Wolf Shaman - Seers humans orange and seers fools blue.
4. Drunken Seer - Seers humans red, wolves orange and fools blue.
7. Gullible Seer - Seers every player blue.

2. Drunken Wolf Shaman

We've found a wolf, guys.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Keep in mind that fools get random results too.  If one of them is a fool, that's another opportunity for a blue seering.

[Olimar12345]

*BDS vote temporarily redacted* Should we pursue this now, or wait a phase? (activity seems to be an issue tbh). Methinks Daj should post some more in the mean time. I'm getting okay vibes from FA, but not much of anything from Daj.

Ninja'd

Keep in mind that fools get random results too.  If one of them is a fool, that's another opportunity for a blue seering.

Oh wow, I misread that and thought it meant that they received one random but correct seering per night. Well, here we are. Either one of them (us, technically) is a fool or a wolf. Odds seem more in favor of wolf though, since the fool one would have to be random to get it correctly (could have been luck though).

[FireArrow]

Wolves have no reason to tell us their true results so both fool and wolf are equally likely. I'd say that the both olimar and dudeman behave more like wolves than fools though, so there's that.

[FireArrow]

btw we kind of need to lynch bds just to deal with the possibility that he's a wolf and there really aren't any better targets today unless since with the whole daj, dudeman, olimar we're gambling between hitting a fool, reliable seer, or wolf and I'm not liking the probability of that lynch.

[Dudeman]

Either one of them (us, technically) is a fool or a wolf. Odds seem more in favor of wolf though, since the fool one would have to be random to get it correctly (could have been luck though).

There is the possibility that there's both a fool and a wolf among you three (unless I'm missing something here). Granted, it's a small chance, but it's there. Might analyze that a bit later.

Ninja'd, gonna vote BDS for FA's reasons listed above.

[FireArrow]

My reasoning doesn't really work from your perspective if you're human, becuase that means you know the daj isn't. So, given that, the lynch to you should look like a choice between two people that are either a fool or a wolf.

Notice how both daj and olimar (pretending or not) are behaving on this premise?

[Dudeman]

My reasoning doesn't really work from your perspective if you're human, becuase that means you know the daj isn't. So, given that, the lynch to you should look like a choice between two people that are either a fool or a wolf.

Notice how both daj and olimar (pretending or not) are behaving on this premise?

I'm sorry, I've read this post half a dozen times and I'm still completely lost. Could you clarify?